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Old 2008-09-01, 20:10   Link #1
Autumn Demon
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Japanese Politics

Fukuda Yasuo, prime minister of Japan, announced his resignation today. This marks the second Japanese premiership in a row to last only one year.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ry_id=12036328

What are the chances of someone other than Aso Taro becoming the next president of the LDP, and consequently, prime minister?

Do you think early general elections will be held ahead of the scheduled September 2009 elections?

And is Ozawa Ichiro and the DPJ a credible alternative to the LDP, or was Koizumi Junichiro's method of reform from within the LDP a better path?

To me, Ozawa seems like a political opportunist who would do anything to improve his poll numbers, including opposing reforms if they weren't coming out of his own party, much like the DPJ did in 2005 over Japan Post. Aso Taro on the other hand seems like he will return to Japan's deficit spending past to cement his party's interests and further drive reforms away.

Regardless of who the two main parties' leaders are, I hope the LDP will lose next election to end their 53-year-long nearly uninterrupted command of the lower house of the Diet.
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Old 2008-09-01, 20:25   Link #2
Kang Seung Jae
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I would say Aso is dead, politics-wise.

Also, LDP lost their majority for a short time in the 1990's.
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Old 2008-09-01, 20:50   Link #3
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Just don't give it over to some nationalistic nut job and we're okay. Also no playing the Otaku card this time. Gundam styled commericals to get people to vote are allowed.
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Old 2008-09-01, 21:35   Link #4
Tri-ring
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Fukuda is a weakling not wanting his name tarnished, remembered as the Head of LDP losing the majority seat at the next election since they will be losing big time at the next election with the upcoming taxes hikes as the main agenda.
LDP has no solution except the ones readied by the bureaucrat and for Kasumigaseki thinks it is business as usual.
I just wish they put the whole national budget through an independent audit and kick those cXXk sucking a$$ holes out. They have no brains thinking the only way to reduce national deficit is to gain more income when they are not lifting a pinky in reviewing/reducing non-essencial spenditure so they can gain a plushy seat at one of those government affiliated organization that is not doing anything when they retire.
They are leeches and they need to be exterminated once and for all.
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Old 2008-09-01, 22:22   Link #5
Kang Seung Jae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tri-ring View Post
They are leeches and they need to be exterminated once and for all.
The only problem: Who'll run the govnerment then? You're talking about almost all the officials in the Japanese government
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Old 2008-09-02, 02:48   Link #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kang Seung Jae View Post
The only problem: Who'll run the govnerment then? You're talking about almost all the officials in the Japanese government
The same people who've been running Japan for the past 30 years: The corporations.

If every purely government employee was sacked tomorrow, the trains would still run on time .
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Old 2008-09-02, 03:55   Link #7
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Originally Posted by Quarkboy View Post
The same people who've been running Japan for the past 30 years: The corporations.

If every purely government employee was sacked tomorrow, the trains would still run on time .
You'll be surprised at how often Japanese Sci-Fi can envision Japan as a nation to one day become a corporate entity...
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Old 2008-09-02, 06:16   Link #8
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
You'll be surprised at how often Japanese Sci-Fi can envision Japan as a nation to one day become a corporate entity...
Well, that's not limited to Japan (see for example, Wall-E)
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Old 2008-09-02, 07:10   Link #9
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IMO, the real power in Japanese politics are the corporations and the bureaucracy. Like the Burmese junta, the Japanese bureaucracy doesn't have a face to it, but in a system where PMs come and go, what is one of the few things that were left alone most of the time?
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Old 2008-09-02, 07:27   Link #10
Tri-ring
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The problem with Japanese politics is that the policy makers don't have an indepenedent think tank and must rely on figures created by the bureacrats.
The second problem is the poweless national Board of Audit which cannot control the huge bureaucratic system.
The third problem is the government cannot reduce bureacrat's position secured by law.
In other words the check and balance system is unfortunatley warped and is not working properly.
This is one of the biggest problem created through 50 years rein by the LDP.
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Old 2008-09-02, 23:40   Link #11
Kang Seung Jae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tri-ring View Post
The problem with Japanese politics is that the policy makers don't have an indepenedent think tank and must rely on figures created by the bureacrats.
The second problem is the poweless national Board of Audit which cannot control the huge bureaucratic system.
The third problem is the government cannot reduce bureacrat's position secured by law.
In other words the check and balance system is unfortunatley warped and is not working properly.
This is one of the biggest problem created through 50 years rein by the LDP.
Political bureacrats and bureaucratic politicians.
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Old 2008-09-03, 04:12   Link #12
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Well, I'm not looking forward to Taro Aso if he ever takes the top post as I find him too outspoken (and other things which I'd receive infractions for if I said them!).
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Old 2008-09-03, 04:31   Link #13
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Japan's next PM may be a woman

Quote:
TOKYO (Sep 3, 08): Ms Yuriko Koike has emerged as a possible contender to be Japan's first female prime minister, with heavyweights in the ailing ruling party urging her to challenge conservative favourite Taro Aso.

Ms Koike, 56, a former television anchorman who has been a defence minister and environment minister, has stayed coy on whether she will contest a party vote on Sept 22 to replace outgoing Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.

"I want to consider what we need in general, rather than my own individual situation," Ms Koike told reporters when asked if she would seek the top job. "I'm contacting various people since you can't play a baseball game all by yourself."

Ms Koike, an expert on the Middle East and fluent in both English and Arabic, is known for her close ties with reformist premier Junichiro Koizumi, who was popular during his 2001-2006 tenure. She belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party's largest faction. Its head, Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, hinted he supported a competitive race.

He likened Ms Koike to the failed United States Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, saying she would energise Japanese women voters. "All of us share the view that it's desirable for the LDP, which has been driven to the edge of a cliff in a sense, to hold an active, fair election to elect its president," said Mr Machimura.

But the Asahi Shimbun reported that 23 of the LDP's 47 prefectural chapters have already made up their minds to back Mr Aso, a former foreign minister.

Japan has one of the developed world's lowest rates of female representation among politicians and corporate executives. Only 89, or 12 per cent, of the 722 members of parliament are women.

- AFP
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Old 2008-09-03, 05:01   Link #14
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An old rule in politics is that men will allow a woman to take helm only when they think that all hope is lost.

Quote:
He likened Ms Koike to the failed United States Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton
Nice one.
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Old 2008-09-03, 05:06   Link #15
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Originally Posted by Slice of Life View Post
An old rule in politics is that men will allow a woman to take helm only when they think all hope is lost.
It worked out for Margarete Thatcher, didn't it?
She only got nominated because they didn't expect her to win. She showed them.

But then, as a Brit told me, the British are not unfamiliar with the idea of a female leader even before Thatcher; they were once ruled by a Queen, after all.
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Old 2008-09-03, 05:23   Link #16
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
It worked out for Margarete Thatcher, didn't it?
I'm governed by an example by myself and that's why I wrote the "when they think" part.
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Old 2008-09-03, 05:35   Link #17
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Originally Posted by Slice of Life View Post
I'm governed by an example by myself and that's why I wrote the "when they think" part.
I know.
I didn't actually say you were wrong; I merely pointed out that it could still work out for the female concerned, if she got what it takes.
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Old 2008-09-03, 05:43   Link #18
Tri-ring
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It really doesn't matter who the next PM will be seen the cabinet will be basically an election administration cabinet and LDP is doubtful that they be able to win a majority seat in the next election for House of Representatives.
The coalition with Komeito will probably be desolved also because of various differences in opinion mainly based on taxation which be the biggest agenda at the next election.
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Old 2008-09-04, 07:07   Link #19
SeijiSensei
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Ms Koike, 56, a former television anchorman...
Maybe that's why she's being considered. Genderbending FTW?
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Old 2008-09-04, 08:18   Link #20
Kinny Riddle
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Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
But then, as a Brit told me, the British are not unfamiliar with the idea of a female leader even before Thatcher; they were once ruled by a Queen, after all.
Last I heard, the Brits are still ruled by a Queen, albeit mostly in name.

If "Rozen Aso" wasn't that much of a ultra hawk, I'd probably be backing him by now to last at least half as long as Koizumi.

Anyway, what of the major opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan? It's taken nearly 50 years since the War for there to be a credible opposition to the LDP (controlling the upper house and such) and still not much is known about them outside Japan. All I know is that the DPJ in its current incarnation formed around 1998 after various amalgamations over the decades, while its leader Ozawa Ichirou used to be a senior LDP MP. The current English wikipedia article doesn't reveal much either.
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