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Old 2007-04-23, 21:45   Link #41
Takeru
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I do see that we have an effect on the environment, but not as large as nature nuts and organizations as Greenpeace make it out to be. Like WanderingKnight stated, "We're just unlucky enough to be living in a warming period".
I would be far more worried about the resulting Ice Age, in approx 2 million years, that our posterity will have to deal with. We're just stuck in an endless summer of sorts compared to history.
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Old 2007-04-23, 22:45   Link #42
Kaoru Chujo
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1. non-linear change. Gradual, predictable climate change is likely to be bad enough, causing rises in sea-level that begin to flood coastal areas, including parts of major cities. And droughts appear to be more common recently. But as Vexx says, there is likely to come a point when there is a rapid change into a new stable state considerably different from our present climate, and the effects of that are likely to be pretty drastic, if and when it comes. This appears to be how things have happened in the past (near and distant).

2. affects us. Flooding of coastal areas by seawater rise will increase insurance costs and therefore costs of all goods. Migration from drought-stricken countries will affect neghboring countries and more distant First World countries.

3. taxes and rationing. Measures to reduce greenhouse gases will be more drastic the later they are left.

4. precautionary principle. There is clearly a finite chance of drastic problems. We have to decide if the chance is great enough for us to take strong measures now, as a precaution. Do we take the chance of slowing the economy for no reason, or the chance of doing nothing to mitigate world-wide natural disaster?

5. asymmetrical effects. The First World and China burn the hydrocarbons. The tropical and sub-tropical Third World feels the greatest effect, in flooding of islands and deltas and in drought. How selfish do we want to be?

6. technofix. I'm a big believer in technology. We may find real new sources of energy: tidal, wind, solar, zero-point (lol), conservation. We may reach Ray Kurzweil's Singularity by 2020 and enter a world of universal abundance and radical social and even biological change. But to simply have confidence that technology will solve the problem is not a scientific attitude but a religious one -- in a bad sense.

7. "nature nuts." You're not dealing with "nature nuts," you're dealing with the most prominent scientists -- in fact almost all scientists -- in the field of climate study. Please don't let wishful thinking and distaste for certain individuals cloud your mind.
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Last edited by Kaoru Chujo; 2007-04-23 at 23:10.
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Old 2007-04-23, 23:50   Link #43
Aoie_Emesai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Syaoran View Post
I'm not American...
I'm not American too, but I do live in the United States. I'm obliged to live by their laws.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoru Chujo View Post
Never underestimate the power of mass hysteria, but there is also a hysteria of opposing the trend. Our hundred-year festival of hydrocarbon use now has to be paid for, that's just how it is. However, I will still keep using as much toilet paper as I want, no matter what a merry band of entertainers says. Lol.
The media and the mass-hysteria you're talking about is a powerful force of nature. If you can persuade enough of the population that we have a worldly situation here, there's nothing we can do. Create another mass hysteria and try to solve the old problem while those panic about the new one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx View Post
Apparently, a lot of mothers failed to properly teach that one should pick up after oneself....
That was taught to us. Many just forgot over the lifetime they spent ignoring it, so it was forgotten forever. Now what was that book called... um... ha... here it goes "All I Really Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten" by : Robert Fulghum. One of my favorite books.

- ALL I REALLY NEED TO KNOW about how to live and what to do and how to be I learned in kindergarten. Wisdom was not at the top of the graduate-school mountain, but there in the sandpile at Sunday School. These are the things I learned:
  • Share everything.
  • Play fair.
  • Don’t hit people.
  • Put things back where you found them.
  • Clean up your own mess.
  • Don’t take things that aren’t yours.
  • Say you’re sorry when you hurt somebody.
  • Wash your hands before you eat.
  • Flush.
  • Warm cookies and cold milk are good for you.
  • Live a balanced life—learn some and think some and draw and paint and sing and dance and play and work every day some.
  • Take a nap every afternoon.
  • When you go out into the world, watch out for traffic, hold hands, and stick together.
  • Wonder. Remember the little seed in the Styrofoam cup: The roots go down and the plant goes up and nobody really knows how or why, but we are all like that.
  • Goldfish and hamsters and white mice and even the little seed in the Styrofoam cup—they all die. So do we.
  • And then remember the Dick-and-Jane books and the first word you learned—the biggest word of all—LOOK.

If we were to live by these simple life rules, then the world would be a happier and safer place.
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Old 2007-04-24, 00:11   Link #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoru Chujo View Post
6. technofix. I'm a big believer in technology. We may find real new sources of energy: tidal, wind, solar, zero-point (lol), conservation. We may reach Ray Kurzweil's Singularity by 2020 and enter a world of universal abundance and radical social and even biological change. But to simply have confidence that technology will solve the problem is not a scientific attitude but a religious one -- in a bad sense.
This was an excellent post. I'd just like to touch on a few points. Unless we radically change our lifestyles, we don't have too much in the way of alternative energy sources. Solar power is a good supplemental source of energy, but it's inadequate for most energy requirements. Moreover, the etching techniques used to construct solar panels creates quite a bit of pollution.

Wind power is a little less harmful to the environment, but it can be used in far fewer places, it produces limited amounts of energy, and it's quite harmful to migratory birds.

Water power produces quite a bit of energy, but it's again geographically limited. Larger projects also cause a fair amount of ecological damage (i.e. Three Gorges Dam).

The only alternative that would provide the amount of energy that we expend is nuclear power. We should have several hundred years of uranium, but it's often politically unfeasible to promote nuclear energy. Unfortunately, every other promising energy source lies in the realm of science fiction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoru Chujo View Post
7. "nature nuts." You're not dealing with "nature nuts," you're dealing with the most prominent scientists -- in fact almost all scientists -- in the field of climate study. Please don't let wishful thinking and distaste for certain individuals cloud your mind.
That's absolutely correct. In a way, the "nature nuts" are more of a hindrance to developing effective environmental policies than they are a help. They often view environmental issues in ideological terms rather than in scientific ones, and are one of the main reasons why nuclear power is so unpopular. Moreover, they are an easy target for people who oppose environmental issues to attack. In doing so, there's less attention paid on the research done by the actual scientists.
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Old 2007-04-24, 02:06   Link #45
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I wonder if we'll ever hear anything else from this guy - Water powered car.

On a side note, every time the enviroment comes up I always think of the garbage ball episode from Futurama. The robot pollution one was great too.
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Old 2007-04-24, 09:59   Link #46
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All I know is that, having lived in Sweden for the past few years, it was painstakingly clear to anyone there that the weather's getting warmer and warmer. We used to have snow at christmas.
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Old 2007-04-24, 10:27   Link #47
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It hasn't snowed at my place for 6 years, and we get snow at least every 2. I've been at this location for 14 years, and that's been the pattern since, till 6 years ago.
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Old 2007-04-24, 12:01   Link #48
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It hasn't snowed at my place for 6 years, and we get snow at least every 2. I've been at this location for 14 years, and that's been the pattern since, till 6 years ago.
Well how do you know the first 8 years was the "norm"? Perhaps you just happened to have more snow than usual first and now you are actually experiencing "normal" weather?

I noticed that everytime that there higher than average temperatures people go "OMG GLOBAL WARMING!!!", but when there are below average temperatures there is silence. Just another example of the mass hysteria going around. I can say for sure that this winter the area I live in happened to have much more snow and cold weather than usual.
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Old 2007-04-24, 12:05   Link #49
Vexx
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I suppose everyone saw the lack of snow in Tokyo this year and the Sapporo Ice Sculpture Festival doing an icemelt crash'n'burn. Not to mention the cherry blossoms being way ahead of schedule.

But those are anecdotal events that can be put off to minor variations. You have to look at trend lines, you have to watch for planetary airflow and oceanflow changes. Its complicated - thats why scientists do it. ... and thats why when a politician or a corporation resists the evidence I start comparing resumes.

I love it when a radio show has two opposing viewpoints on --- typically the so-called "status quo" view is represented by "a spokesperson" or "communications director" from a thinktank/corporation .... and the "there's a problem" view is handled by... an actual climate scientist. There's a reason for that.
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Old 2007-04-24, 14:05   Link #50
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Lets say, a disaster is a destructive event that comes so fast and unpredictable that nobody/few can prepare measures to save themselves or counter act it. It will cost the lives of many people and will have considerable impact on the life of the survivors.

Thatswhy global warming will never be a disaster, because it evolves rather slowly, there is enough time for counter measures (theoreticaly), and most important.... its not unpredictable.

(this argument illustrates a similar logic as is used by anti global warming activists)
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Old 2007-04-24, 14:09   Link #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImClueless
Well how do you know the first 8 years was the "norm"? Perhaps you just happened to have more snow than usual first and now you are actually experiencing "normal" weather?

I noticed that everytime that there higher than average temperatures people go "OMG GLOBAL WARMING!!!", but when there are below average temperatures there is silence. Just another example of the mass hysteria going around. I can say for sure that this winter the area I live in happened to have much more snow and cold weather than usual.
This is a good point. Global Warming is actually a very good term, but it's often misinterpreted. What it refers to is an overall world-wide warming trend. However, climate works according to lots of different factors, so this trend won't necessarily manifest itself as a local warming trend. Instead, what's more likely to happen is that we'll get more extremes of weather over the next few years. Your experience with the abnormally cold weather, or the storms that have beset the North American East Coast this spring may well be expressions of that.
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Old 2007-04-24, 14:14   Link #52
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Well thermodynamics dictate that higher temperature -> more entropy/energy? (ok I've forgotten most of my basic chemistry). Therefore more extreme weather. Jokingly aside global warming is awesome for Canada. All that frozen wasteland up north will become productive agricultural land and my boring temperate home will soon become a tropical resort paradise!
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Old 2007-04-24, 16:35   Link #53
Vexx
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Unfortunately, you'll also be having to deal with a huge migration of noisy, fat, Americans seeking cooler climes since the US will be a swept piece of desolation racked by interioer drought and coastal storms.
Scary, isn't it?


Fluid dynamics, nonlinear systems .... extreme weather, both hot and cold .... if the Gulf Stream shuts down, Northern Europe gets racked with cold in winter and heat in summer (o wait, ... )
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Old 2007-04-24, 16:42   Link #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImClueless View Post
Well how do you know the first 8 years was the "norm"? Perhaps you just happened to have more snow than usual first and now you are actually experiencing "normal" weather?
Shhh... ^_^, I can dream.
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Old 2007-04-24, 16:53   Link #55
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Unfortunately, you'll also be having to deal with a huge migration of noisy, fat, Americans......
We get those already, but rather those seeking colder climes, all we get are deserters ( or whatever the politically correct term is now), corporate vultures (buying things up left and right), and hippies/militant liberals who "refuse to live with Bush". Besides I live on a hill in a costal city. Beach front property here I come$!$!$!$! I'll be able to rent
/lease for major $ while I myself will move to the newly thawed and green Greenland. There will be an off season though when all the storms come and blow everything to hell, but hey thats not all that different from the carribean right now... Im telling you buying up property in Greenland is an awesome longterm investment!
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Old 2007-04-24, 17:32   Link #56
Vexx
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(visualizes a mesh of houseboats stretching to the horizon on the warm Artic Ocean and Hudson Bay) ....
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Old 2007-04-26, 02:42   Link #57
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I think with as with most things, there some truth to it and some BS. Some of it is natural and some of it man made. There are natural weather patterns that affect the severity of weather like el nino which affects Australia and the west coast of North and South America, and the monsoon season in Asia. But trends show these are becoming more severe. I do think the human race plays a part in this.

I don't see a problem with reducing carbon emissions, hell we're running out of fossil fuels anyway. (This is something believe 100% though) I don't see how it's such a bad thing to be able to breathe clean air. I don't want every place in the world to have air quality as poor as LA and Beijing.

Planting trees, what's wrong with that? Science says unequivocally that we need trees and vegetation to survive.

The basic rules of environmentalism isn't too radical, think about it, it basically comes down to Don't waste resources, replace what you take and generally use your common sense.

Back to your article and your response, I think its unreasonable to use 1 whole roll of toilet paper in your "session" but what those artists are saying is tripe as well. It maybe a "constitutional"right to use 50 rolls of TP but that doesn't mean because you can, you should.

It does concern Americans because in reality without other nations importing food to your nation because of drought etc etc how long do you think the US food supply will be able to support your population? THe US is a small country in terms of Land Mass, with a gigantic population.
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Old 2007-04-26, 02:45   Link #58
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Well, considering that where I'm at, the snow is melting two months too early this year and came a month late last year, I'm not sure whether or not "Global Warming" is to blame.

Of course, as far as I know, I'm probably contributing to the Global Warming with my car.
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Old 2007-04-26, 03:13   Link #59
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There's been a drought here for about 10 years, But we we're in the El Nino cycle which apparently has just finished. I have noticed that it rains quite regularly maybe about 12 days in every month since the end of summer (january here). But then again it could be because I'm more aware of it.

'm pretty sure the drought would've occured, it's just would it have lasted as long without the climate change? I think that the data is still leaning towards no but they're not accurate enough and haven't been recorded for long enough in a modern industrial context.
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Old 2007-04-26, 03:19   Link #60
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Global dimming is believed to be responsible for droughts, as far as I know global warming has no immediate effect on preventing rain. technically you would assume global warming would cause more water to evaporate and it would rain and flood more often.

however in australia and germany the evaporation rate of water was actually measured and found that global dimming is a serious problem.
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