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Old 2008-07-10, 14:43   Link #10201
dave1992
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Seems like this is the first time Hina on the necklace candidate... She deserve more than this...
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Old 2008-07-10, 14:45   Link #10202
OceanBlue
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What she deserves and what she's getting are two different things....
At least, I hope she does really well in Saimoe and Best Moe.
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Old 2008-07-10, 14:48   Link #10203
minhtam1638
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave1992 View Post
Seems like this is the first time Hina on the necklace candidate... She deserve more than this...
Actually, when I made the schedule, I used preseason rankings to try to balance the schedule out for contenders in the following order: FANVOTE #1 (Kyou), Suiseiseki, Shana, Haruhi, Hinagiku, FANVOTE #2 (Kotomi), Fate, etc., but I can only go down so far to Maria, who was ranked #12 (not counting nominations), before I finalized it, on account to keep the balance for who I thought would be the top contenders. Kagami was ranked way below #12, so she slipped my radar.

And it pretty much looks like the top 16 will be as follows:

#1-7: A heap of Fate, Kyou, Tomoyo, Kagami, Haruhi, Yuki, and Shana in some odd order.
#8-9: Kotomi and Nanoha. Order really doesn't matter much since they'll face each other in double-elimination first.
#10: Hinagiku, who will face #7
#11: C.C., who will face #6
#12-#16: Anybody's ball game, and could very well be some candidates we didn't expect. Note that I did include Konata in this group.
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Old 2008-07-10, 14:53   Link #10204
Seishi
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Minty - That's kind of overwhelming compared to what I've done with my time over the past few years. Good for you, though. I hope you keep doing well.

Hinagiku has a good chance in Saimoe this year, but Hayate no Gotoku as a whole seems pretty powerful from pre-lim results. I hate to keep saying this, but the KyoAni support in this tournament is deafening. Hina is doing WELL but it's hard for her to actually break through, much like Fate.
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Old 2008-07-10, 14:53   Link #10205
dave1992
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So, so far, Kagami is a surprise package, then...

And Hinagiku's underachieving is still far better than Suiseiseki's, I've seen her in #1 of Preseason and yet it's way far in the middle-table...
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:09   Link #10206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seishi View Post
Minty - That's kind of overwhelming compared to what I've done with my time over the past few years. Good for you, though. I hope you keep doing well.

Hinagiku has a good chance in Saimoe this year, but Hayate no Gotoku as a whole seems pretty powerful from pre-lim results. I hate to keep saying this, but the KyoAni support in this tournament is deafening. Hina is doing WELL but it's hard for her to actually break through, much like Fate.
To add to that, I'm going to have to say that the KyoAni crowd is pretty tired of being hate-voted to oblivion in Saimoe Japan. They have a slight better shot in Korea, but not too much - just Haruhi and Lucky Star. Henceforth, when ISML came around, they sensed that opportunity to succeed, since it takes a minimum of 15 losses for one candidate to be in the top 16 danger zone, which is much more than just one.

In a round-robin league style format, it is much harder to knock someone down into the ranks because one knockout doesn't necessarily mean you're out of the competition - you just go down in rank. A loss doesn't necessarily mean you're out of the running for double-elimination.

So for Hinagiku, who is ranked at #10, she (along with the 50-odd candidates who have experienced Saimoe single-elimination) has been presented with a different format to deal with. In J Saimoe and K Saimoe, Hinagiku needed to win a maximum of 7 matches in order to win the whole competition (and she did so in K Best Moe. Yet it takes 9 just to win a small prize here in ISML, which is much harder to do, given the opponent strength of this competition as opposed to the relative opponent strength a candidate may face in J Saimoe and K Saimoe. And already, we've seen at least 9 candidates do better than Hinagiku.

To also compare formats, in a single-elimination, Hinagiku just has to win to "move up in finishing position". In a round-robin style event, not only does Hinagiku need to win to maintain her position, but somebody in the top 9 must lose, and lose quite a lot, for Hinagiku to move up at the loser's expense.

I really don't think Hinagiku has anything to worry about in ISML (yet), as while the necklace is not a bad prize, it is the tiara itself that signifies the ISML champion. It's just that because she is in the middle, it's pretty much a strategy game for her. Does she stay in the middle to try to knock out... maybe Shana? Does she move down in rank (ala lose on purpose) to try to knock out a top contender in double-elimination? Does she want a shot at either Kotomi or Nanoha? And so on. Obviously, you would want to move up in rank to the top 4 so that you face a relatively weak contender, if you can't, that's where the strategy comes in.

Of course, if you want to go for a necklace (and secure your ticket to next year's competition), go ahead.


Speaking of the necklace ticket, where's Setsuna? At this rate, she'd have to rely on nominations to even try to defend her Topaz reign.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dave1992 View Post
And Hinagiku's underachieving is still far better than Suiseiseki's, I've seen her in #1 of Preseason and yet it's way far in the middle-table...
I hate to admit it, but I may have overranked Suiseiseki. I placed her over Shana because Suiseiseki's best two finishes in past 2006 and 2007 tourneys was 1 and 1, whereas Shana was 1 and 2. But I probably should have taken into account that both of Suiseiseki's best finishes were in 2006, and her support is ever waning to the point where she is struggling to even get to 32 wins. However, I'm looking at her schedule, and she has a bunch of opponents where she would be able to be considered for both Ruby and Diamond, provided that she pick up some "drafting help" (racing term) from Suigintou and upset a few top 16 contenders in Suigintou's favor. Hence, she could even get to 32 wins before her season-finale with - who else but Shana?

Then again, thinking back, if Suiseiseki is going to be leaving as a Saimoe contender, better make her last match memorable, even if Shana does wipe the floor with her.
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:09   Link #10207
Antenor
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@dave1992: I think people finally got a little tired of Suiseiseki, desu.

@Minhtam: Didn't Setsuna win Topaz by the sheer number of Vietnamese voters we had at the start of the tournament? Why did that whole group of voters vanish again? Issues with the way you run ISML?
Anyways, I just wanted to say thanks for spending so much time on this tournament (and thread): it helped me discover wonderful new shows/VNs. So, yeah, thank you.
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:12   Link #10208
LazyCanuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seishi View Post
Wow, nobody actually sleeps here. LazyCanuck, which island are you on? We have a bunch over here.

Lol, yeah I have no life. I'm glad OverFunk's fanboyism is higher than mine.
I live on Vancouver Island, pretty much in Victoria, (a little bit out in a smaller "city" but yeah)

I sleep a fair bit as well, just not when "normal" people do, i seem to average going to bed at like 4-6am everyday now that I'm out of school >.>
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:30   Link #10209
thenightsshadow
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Interesting; figured you'd be on the Sunshine Coast with your sleeping habits.
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:34   Link #10210
minhtam1638
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On a side note, Crisu's taking avatar requests, which he says he will do in his spare time. I'll personally be making some match image templates to go along with it, as a way to help promote the J and K Saimoe head-to-head matches.

This after I install iWork '06 on my Mac and upload Rena's biography. And do a paper...
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:45   Link #10211
Seishi
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Urgh, strategy voting. That can be risky...but you're right, the tiara is what matters, and both Fate and Hina have a good chance at it, assuming voters come around at the right time.

Canuck - I was in Nanaimo, but Gold River at the moment until I get the resources to go back to Vancouver Island University there.
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:47   Link #10212
Ice Block
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Ha! I'm late... or am I too early?

The thing with Desu is that her popularity is fading. How long has it been since Traumend? Ouverture doesn't count, as she only had 2 short scened there. Also, Rozen Maiden is quickly loosing series mojo, as more and more new series keep coming out. Slap in a third season of RM, and we'll be seeing the desu crowd come rolling back in.

OTOH, I am quite surprised at HnG's relatively poor performance in this league, seeing as it's a relatively new series (ending at the same time as Clannad). This may be due to less exposure to HnG, as evidenced by last year's JSaiMoe's foreign votes for the Nagi vs Rika finals. However, Higurashi isn't doing well either, leading us to blame the majority of voters for KyoAni bias.

However, the only reason why we say that the KyoAni support in this league is overwhelming is because there are lots of KyoAni characters present. Why? Because KyoAni is a studio that specializes in a niche market: moe. Plus, they have the animation talents and popular brand name (thanks to Haruhi) backing them up. KyoAni may be all over the top 16, but look who's gonna be #1 or #2 at the end of the league. That's rght, Shana or Fate.

With all these said, it's still sad to see Hinagiku not doing very well in the league. I may not look like it, but I've been a huge fan of her ever since I first saw her in the JSaiMoe 2007 PV. She's the reason why I watched and finished HnG in the first place. Gah, I too am hoping she'll do better in JSaiMoe this year, after being unexpectedly knocked out by Luna last year (Seto San, I may be able to understand. But Edomae Luna?!? ).

And damn, I missed all the Maple Story madness.
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:54   Link #10213
LazyCanuck
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I feel a bit bad in some cases voting cause I've only seen the animes of maybe half the characters so far, and by the time i could get around to watching the rest ISML might be over :/

(just kinda refering to Ice block talking about watching HnG cause of seeing Hinagiku in a saimoe thing)
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:58   Link #10214
minhtam1638
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antenor View Post
@Minhtam: Didn't Setsuna win Topaz by the sheer number of Vietnamese voters we had at the start of the tournament? Why did that whole group of voters vanish again? Issues with the way you run ISML?
Anyways, I just wanted to say thanks for spending so much time on this tournament (and thread): it helped me discover wonderful new shows/VNs. So, yeah, thank you.
Although you are right that they did have issues with the way I was running it since I kept postponing nominations and all, but actually the whole group of voters vanished because they were content with a Negima candidate winning just a necklace and that "they wanted to prepare for Saimoe Japan". According to Psieye, voters tend to leave so that they don't risk burning out for the "real Saimoe", only to come back in September with the utmost energy to turn things around.

Though it would be best to ask WarriorKK for the real reasons.

That may be also why we aren't seeing too many non-KyoAni voters. They may be saving their stock of voters specifically for September, in attempt to give the KyoAni crowd some false hope and possibly knock them into the loser's bracket early. I have to say, though, that Shana, Hinagiku, and Nanoha may be doing just that - "barely hanging on". The Nanoha crowd might still be voting every day, possibly to leave Fate at the #2 seed. Remember that if Fate ends up being ranked #1, she'd have a 50% chance of finding Nanoha in the second round of the winner's bracket.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice Block View Post
Ha! I'm late... or am I too early?

The thing with Desu is that her popularity is fading. How long has it been since Traumend? Ouverture doesn't count, as she only had 2 short scened there. Also, Rozen Maiden is quickly loosing series mojo, as more and more new series keep coming out. Slap in a third season of RM, and we'll be seeing the desu crowd come rolling back in.

OTOH, I am quite surprised at HnG's relatively poor performance in this league, seeing as it's a relatively new series (ending at the same time as Clannad). This may be due to less exposure to HnG, as evidenced by last year's JSaiMoe's foreign votes for the Nagi vs Rika finals. However, Higurashi isn't doing well either, leading us to blame the majority of voters for KyoAni bias.

However, the only reason why we say that the KyoAni support in this league is overwhelming is because there are lots of KyoAni characters present. Why? Because KyoAni is a studio that specializes in a niche market: moe. Plus, they have the animation talents and popular brand name (thanks to Haruhi) backing them up. KyoAni may be all over the top 16, but look who's gonna be #1 or #2 at the end of the league. That's rght, Shana or Fate.

With all these said, it's still sad to see Hinagiku not doing very well in the league. I may not look like it, but I've been a huge fan of her ever since I first saw her in the JSaiMoe 2007 PV. She's the reason why I watched and finished HnG in the first place. Gah, I too am hoping she'll do better in JSaiMoe this year, after being unexpectedly knocked out by Luna last year (Seto San, I may be able to understand. But Edomae Luna?!? ).

And damn, I missed all the Maple Story madness.
Hinagiku not doing well? I disagree - she's doing very well in this league. So far, all seven opponents she has lost to are ranked ahead of her, and she also beat Nanoha, who might be going down to #10 with her Ruby and Diamond schedules. I think she's doing at least what she needs to do - get to the top 16. If we're talking about Hayate no Gotoku disappointment, I'm pointing fingers at Nagi and Maria, who I'd thought would do much better in this league, but both of them are on the far end of the top 16 bubble, so all eyes need to be on them.

And you may be right about Rozen Maiden. Overture was not about the Rozen Maidens; it was all about Suigintou (who by the way is now eligible for next-year's .500 wait-list). And with the Rozen Maiden manga currently continuing, we may see a 3rd season of the Rozen Maidens probably in the summer of 2009 or 2010 (projected). If Suigintou hangs on in 2009, maybe 2010, we may see a Rozen Maiden comeback in 2011.

Last edited by minhtam1638; 2008-07-10 at 16:09.
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Old 2008-07-10, 15:59   Link #10215
dave1992
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It is, HnG finished nearly same-time as Clannad did, but fact is HnG started far before Clannad. And it's like, People still talk about Clannad, but not HnG.
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Old 2008-07-10, 16:04   Link #10216
LazyCanuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minhtam2448
-cut post- The Nanoha crowd might still be voting every day, possibly to leave Fate at the #2 seed. Remember that if Fate ends up being ranked #1, she'd have a 50% chance of finding Nanoha in the second round of the winner's bracket.
is there no happiness in this world Fate must be #1, but i don't want to see another Fate vs Nanoha match unless its the very final.
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Old 2008-07-10, 16:07   Link #10217
Ithekro
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Topaz was basically rapid fire elimination of the top 16 until Setsuna was at the top followed closely by Evangeline, only rivaled by the one remaining top 16 holder from KyoAni: Kyou. All of the other top 16 were knocked out during this period. Tomoyo, the odds on favorite for the period was knocked out in the last round by Kotomi (and by a lot). Setsuna just barely won over Konata and Evangeline beat Hanyuu by 50 and still couldn't make up the difference against Setsuna, missing the win by 12 votes.
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Old 2008-07-10, 16:10   Link #10218
minhtam1638
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LazyCanuck View Post
is there no happiness in this world Fate must be #1, but i don't want to see another Fate vs Nanoha match unless its the very final.
Remember that there is a losers' bracket and a winners' bracket. One of them only needs to lose once to stay alive, and both may be winners' champ and losers' champ to meet in the final.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Topaz was basically rapid fire elimination of the top 16 until Setsuna was at the top followed closely by Evangeline, only rivaled by the one remaining top 16 holder from KyoAni: Kyou. All of the other top 16 were knocked out during this period. Tomoyo, the odds of favorite for the period was knocked out in the last round by Kotomi (and by a lot). Setsuna just barely won over Konata and Evangeline beat Hanyuu by 50 and still couldn't make up the difference against Setsuna, missing the win by 12 votes.
Speaking of which, if Evangeline took home the Topaz necklace, I wouldn't be complaining about Setsuna's poor performance - Evangeline would have been about 2-3 wins from locking herself in for next year.
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Old 2008-07-10, 16:15   Link #10219
Ithekro
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The chart makers and map makers secretly hope for another Topaz like set of matches. They like the Top 16 getting a heavy shakeup.

Setsuna....the stealth winner.
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Old 2008-07-10, 16:18   Link #10220
Ice Block
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minhtam2448 View Post
Hinagiku not doing well? I disagree - she's doing very well in this league. So far, all seven opponents she has lost to are ranked ahead of her, and she also beat Nanoha, who might be going down to #10 with her Ruby and Diamond schedules. I think she's doing at least what she needs to do - get to the top 16. If we're talking about Hayate no Gotoku disappointment, I'm pointing fingers at Nagi and Maria, who I'd thought would do much better in this league, but both of them are on the far end of the top 16 bubble, so all eyes need to be on them.
Nah. What I meant is that she doesn't sport the voting support of candidates like Haruhi, Shana, and Yuki (or anyone else in the top 5 for that matter) wherein a match she's on and facing a strong opponent will result in most number of votes cast for a match, or getting decisive wins one after another. Either that, or I just got my facts messed up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave1992 View Post
It is, HnG finished nearly same-time as Clannad did, but fact is HnG started far before Clannad. And it's like, People still talk about Clannad, but not HnG.
Also, both shows are gonna get a new season soon. Yet I don't see much hype about HnG season 2, aside form the occasional hopes of people's favorite manga chapters getting animated.
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