Anime DVD/BD Sales in Japan: Discussion

[Kunagisa]

Originally Posted by fertygo

I'm very doubting TM fans "critiques" and bashing actually affect the sales in negative way, considering DEEN's F/SN and UBW numbers, UFOtable certainly doing better job, and they should know as rabid fan the box will have the uncut episode and more content anyway.

My point about KnK, that's just uber "minor"novel by nasu before it got re-released after all the hit, if compared to F/Z that direct tie-in for actual TM blockbuster its certainly different.


I doubt this is UFOtable decision.

I think you're still misinterpreting me. Bashing on any show has no consequences on sales (nor have I hinted at this), but I'm saying there are fundamental differences between the supporter of these shows. Just cause they all are part of the Nasuverse doesn't mean the target audiences are identical, and I am saying the differences might be big enough that F/Z would not sell as well. For example, how many F/Z audiences do you think actually understand everything that goes on in TM? Do I have the proof to say they aren't entirely different? Nope, since as I've said from the beginning, that's the impression I get from other message boards.

Obviously, I'm no expert when it comes to TM franchise; again I'm merely repeating what I'm observing, and I'm saying that at the moment it does not look like F/Z can beat F/SN or IS.

[Archer]

Originally Posted by stuopidget

I'm saying that at the moment it does not look like F/Z can beat F/SN.

Well, naturally you're no expert if this thought even exists in your head. Which message boards have you even been to lately?

Fate/Zero was not a blockbuster during its novel run. It did decently, but not to the extent that one would expect from a Type-Moon work. The fact that people can even think of it as a blockbuster now only really highlights just how well the Fate/Zero anime is doing, since its popularity surged only recently. Coincidentally, this is also the same pattern that Kara no Kyoukai followed.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by stuopidget

Obviously, I'm no expert when it comes to TM franchise; again I'm merely repeating what I'm observing, and I'm saying that at the moment it does not look like F/Z can beat F/SN or IS.

I'd be surprised if F/Z fails to beat F/SN. From what I've read and seen, F/Z has been better received than the F/SN anime was.

That being said, anime movies tend to enjoy a bit of a sales advantage over anime TV series (which is why anime TV series often have their own separate sales list), so I'd be a bit surprised if F/Z hits KnK's numbers.

Somewhere between 30 and 40K is probably reasonable for F/Z.

[Chaos2Frozen]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

I'd be surprised if F/Z fails to beat F/SN. From what I've read and seen, F/Z has been better received than the F/SN anime was.

So was FMA:Brotherhood, but it still sold less than the original

[Marcus H.]

But we're talking about DEEN pitting against ufotable here.
Although we're also involved in analyzing sales from series five years apart.

[Last Sinner]

Originally Posted by Chaos2Frozen

So was FMA:Brotherhood, but it still sold less than the original

That was several reasons. First FMA adapdation was 50 eps, 2nd was 63. Ppl being asked to fork out for both?! I don't think so - not at those lengths. Secondly, the fact Bones was doing it because it's near to the ONLY big-selling title Bones has ever had made it clear they were doing it for the money with the lure of a more loyal adaptation as a hook. Third, the original FMA series had a lot of promotion and had high TV ratings within a prime-time slot to spread the word whereas the second one didn't.

As for F/Z and KnK novels - yeah, that F/Z novel was weak early, it took until late 2nd volume to kick in. Urobuchi admitted he learned to write properly while writing F/Z. While KnK was something Nasu wrote while he was in the 10th grade. Ufotable had to alter a lot of little things and flaws to make the movies as good as they were. Really, Haruhi is still the benchmark for light novels.

And if F/Z gets outdone by IS considering the waste of potential IS was, that will be a blight on the industry. If a hack job with a few perks outddoes something done more thoroughly, why should studios even try? It'll be a similar kick to the groin like Endless Eight was. But personally, I think Persona 4 obliterating most of the competition this year is lamentable if its numbers don't drop off much in latter volumes.

[Vena]

Originally Posted by Last Sinner

And if F/Z gets outdone by IS considering the waste of potential IS was, that will be a blight on the industry. If a hack job with a few perks outddoes something done more thoroughly, why should studios even try? It'll be a similar kick to the groin like Endless Eight was. But personally, I think Persona 4 obliterating most of the competition this year is lamentable if its numbers don't drop off much in latter volumes.

I wouldn't put P4 on lamentable levels so long as IS is also in the same discussion (or End8). I'd rather have P4 beat everything into submission then be reminded that the best selling garbage in recent history was that level of garbage. P4 has its issues and QUALITY control really is going to be needed on the blu-rays, but its at least holding together a coherent plot, using most of its set pieces well, and has generally interesting characters and dynamics between them. I doubt P4s' sales will remain so astronomical through its whole run unless the series switches into top gear.

Now, if by some miracle F/Z manages to beat P4 (and I hope to the god I don't believe in except now when its convenient that it beats IS), then kudos to ufotable for somehow making a show about grown adults, with a complex plot, and all the other more mature intricacies that have slowly melted out of anime, sell.

[relentlessflame]

I think conversations about how series sell as it relates to people's own personal perspective of what is "garbage" and what isn't is of little value. Then again, I quite enjoyed Infinite Stratos for what it was and purchased all the Blu-Rays (including the recent OVA), so according to you lot I have garbage taste. It doesn't really bother me that you think that about me (I'm used to it), but I don't think it adds much value to this conversation overall. People buy what they want because they want to own it, as opposed to other options like renting it, buying it on some other form of media (book/game/etc.), or "just watching it once was good enough". When a certain series you think is crap ends up selling well, it just means that the people buying product aren't necessarily motivated by all the same things you would be or you think they should be. To belittle or dismiss the buying public's purchasing choices is completely besides the point, and basically amounts to whining that people don't share the same "refined" tastes you do (and don't buy accordingly). It's entertainment; people buy as they please. The onus is on the creators to make shows that people want to buy, if that's their goal, and on people in the audience to actually buy the shows they like if they want to send the message to the creators to make more shows like it.

[Kunagisa]

I think some of you are taking this way too personally.

Whether F/Z sells 100k unit or 10k doesn't concern me at all. I'm not bashing on the series nor am I bashing its fanbase (I watch unpopular/underrated series like Majikoi/UN-GO as well as the popular ones). We have 0 facts to base any of what will or will not sell until records from 2ch gets posted, and even those records are entirely based on Oricon, and even Oricon is freaking inaccurate. The only accurate statement we will ever see is if the company releases statement on it (like these). If you don't like making estimates base on OTHER estimates, I don't know what you're doing in this thread. Stalker points is incredibly low (again that's the only semi-reliable prediction we have right now and already mentioned by fertygo), and I still don't think the fanbase as strong as its indicated here at the English communities.

Originally Posted by Archer

Well, naturally you're no expert if this thought even exists in your head. Which message boards have you even been to lately?

The msg board I visit is komica (the Taiwan version of 2ch if you will) and Stage1. Over 90% of what I posted on this board came from there. As far as I'm concern, the most info there surpasses the speed of aggregate boards like yaraon and others and are mostly accurate, and there are literally people who sit there and talk about sales all day like people on ニュース速報 on 2ch's 【速報】アニメDVD・BDの売り上げを見守るスレ. Yes, I already mentioned I'm no expert, but I believe these people.

I also think P4 and Working's sales are overstated based on their Vol1 sales.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by stuopidget

I think some of you are taking this way too personally.

Well, just to speak for myself here, I'm not massively emotionally invested in Fate/Zero's sales figures.

I'd like to see it sell well since I like the show, but if it falls short of Fate/Stay Night I'd probably just be mildly disappointed.

At least Fate/Zero should sell decently well at least, which is more than I can say for some of my other most liked shows of Fall 2011...

Stalker points is incredibly low (again that's the only semi-reliable prediction we have right now and already mentioned by fertygo), and I still don't think the fanbase as strong as its indicated here at the English communities.

I read that with Stalker points, it depends on if you run it through the BD-Box formula or not. With it, it is indeed pretty low. Without the formula, it's rather high.

The question is: How applicable is that BD-Box formula to a major anime release that wasn't first released in volumes? I mean, a major anime originally releasing in BD-Box format (as opposed to Blu-Ray/DVD volumes) is pretty unprecedented, to the best of my knowledge.


So, I guess in fairness to you, a lot of our educated guesses are just that: Guesses. We are dealing with something a bit out of the ordinary here.

[fertygo]

Some of you need take this into your account. Sales =/= Quality/Hype.

Plus F/Z have some circumstances with its disc release, its released in BD-Box format, many people already predicting the sales can take a little dip due to this. Maybe more fans will appreciate it but its not meant they all can afford 2 BD-box with 40000 yen price (its about 1000$ mind you)
I still believe F/Z is giant seller, but there's no proof that suggest its will be 30-40k+ seller like some people predicted.

And ffs there is no shame if F/Z can't beat IS or DEEN's F/SN number, if you that mad about it you can help with buying the BD-Box.

[0utf0xZer0]

I'm going to be amused if Fate/Zero's sales fall between the average and minimum per volume sales of one of the series people are so eager to compares its sales to, just because I know people will debate which is the "correct" number to measure against. (Personally, I say measure the box set against the minimum, since that's about how many people actually completed the volume set).

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by fertygo

And ffs there is no shame if F/Z can't beat IS or DEEN's F/SN number, if you that mad about it you can help with buying the BD-Box.

Exactly, people acting like 20-25k is bad need to get their damn head checked. It's also not like sales figures have any bearing on the future of the Fate/Zero franchise since these 2 seasons will cover all the light novel material. It's not a Bacanno situation where there's heaps of LNs after the anime covered and because it sold poorly we'll never see them adapted. It's kinda sad if people just want it to beat F/SN just due to the DEEN factor, like adapting a light novel isn't easier than a vn with multiple routes in the first place..

[Vena]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

-snippity snip-

Apologies on my part, I used overly strong wording. I meant in no way to imply that it is bad for people to buy what they enjoy nor that they cannot enjoy something that does not match my opinion of what is watchable. But in the same way that you are able to buy the series and enjoy it, I am able to regard the series as lost potential and not buy it. And from there our opinions will naturally split.

Originally Posted by fertygo

Some of you need take this into your account. Sales =/= Quality/Hype.

It sets marketing trends, and it shows where the profit in the market lies. Look at the books industry for a pretty good example of this over the last fifteen or so years (similarly for the movie industry with all these recent *adaptations*). First it was Harry Potter which heralded a tidal wave of similar books. Then LotR was made into a movie and became incredibly successful, books of its genre began to flow out from every orifice. Now you have Twilight which has revitalized the vampire genre like no other. Its not necessarily about quality, as the former two are very good series/books, but the later is not exactly a literary piece of art, but they will set trends that become apparent as the years progress and companies seek safe profits.

[Westlo]

The only trend that Fate/Zero would set would be getting more Urobuchi works animated and after Madoka that is hardly a problem in the first place.

[Vena]

Originally Posted by Westlo

The only trend that Fate/Zero would set would be getting more Urobuchi works animated and after Madoka that is hardly a problem in the first place.

That bit didn't particularly tie into F/Z, I was speaking more generally about sales & trends. If I were to hope for anything from F/Z, it would be that we see more of this style of mature characterization with depth. Madoka did this through the use of young girls, with depth to their characters, to drive a plot that was quite brutal/philosophical. Older characters are not a necessity as Madoka did just fine, but it wouldn't hurt to see more shows with older cast members that are at least competent.

For some variety, if nothing else.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Vena

It sets marketing trends, and it shows where the profit in the market lies. Look at the books industry for a pretty good example of this over the last fifteen or so years (similarly for the movie industry with all these recent *adaptations*). First it was Harry Potter which heralded a tidal wave of similar books. Then LotR was made into a movie and became incredibly successful, books of its genre began to flow out from every orifice. Now you have Twilight which has revitalized the vampire genre like no other. Its not necessarily about quality, as the former two are very good series/books, but the later is not exactly a literary piece of art, but they will set trends that become apparent as the years progress and companies seek safe profits.

there were plenty of Vampire books before twilight revitalized the industry.

[fertygo]

What trend that expected to set by F/Z success anyway?

More good studios is serious working LN adaptation and not just JC. Staff doing mediocre job on it?

Frankly I think that's already achieved lately, with studio such like Sunrise and A-1 working (and/or) LN adaptation with high attention.

[Westlo]

Not like there's many LNs left to adapt anyway.... what's the biggest one aside from Nisio's Zaregoto anyway?

[fertygo]

Originally Posted by Westlo

Not like there's many LNs left to adapt anyway.... what's the biggest one aside from Nisio's Zaregoto anyway?

They can just pull bake/IS out of nowhere, picking series that unique or very fitting for anime-media and BOOM!

IS/Bake isn't exactly the "thing" on LN and its just explode with the anime.

By that I mean something that bigger name in LN like Haganai won't touch those 2 success at this point.