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Old 2011-12-30, 23:18   Link #441
Undertaker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirarakim View Post
Oh I am so sad about Chihayafuru...that probably means a second season won't happen.

But I think 4000+ for Peguindrum is pretty good for the type of series it is. Not a hit but not bad either. It's expected that sales will go down after the 1st volume too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Biggest disappointment is Chihayafuru not even ranking in either format. That's very sad.

I'm actually not too worried about Chihayafuru if it is pulling in some ratings in it's day time lot. Its 24:55 slot still has advertising significant and it also has a 3:00 PM slot that would help.

Besides, anime adaption of long running Shonen and Shojo series (daytime anime) rarely put up big numbers in DVD/BD sales anyway. I don't remember Nodame or Kimi ni Todoke pulling in any earth shuttering number either. Thought it is important that the anime at least boosts the sales of manga, which both anime managed to do and help push both series to it's leadership status.

From what I heard Chihayafuru is doing decent in rating, and the manga sales has also surged, as does interest in Kuruta. So I think everything is still OK so far.
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Old 2011-12-30, 23:34   Link #442
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Nodame Cantabile and Kimi no Todoke both had very good DVD sales, in the 8.5-9K range for their first seasons.
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Old 2011-12-30, 23:43   Link #443
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Really!?? then I stand corrected.

But with that being said, 2.5K seem to be a usual cut-off point, so hopefully it'll at least acheive that.

Otherwise I guess it'll depend on how much of sale boost it has on manga front, if it can get to 800-900k territory on first month sale for new volume, the chance would still be good I would think.
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Old 2011-12-31, 00:19   Link #444
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Originally Posted by Undertaker View Post
Really!?? then I stand corrected.

But with that being said, 2.5K seem to be a usual cut-off point, so hopefully it'll at least acheive that.

Otherwise I guess it'll depend on how much of sale boost it has on manga front, if it can get to 800-900k territory on first month sale for new volume, the chance would still be good I would think.
But was Kimi ni Todoke and Nodame high in the pre-order sales? If were lucky enough Chihayafuru might at least get 4k in sales.

In the manga front, 800k-900k would already make it into a phenomenon. Even a lot of Jump titles don't sell as much as that. What Chihayafuru is pulling off now (150-200k) is already really good and you can really see the boost from the anime. It might turn into a big hit if it pulls of what Ao no Exorcist did, which is having all its volumes in the weekly ranking every week turning it into one of the highest-earning manga in 2011.
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Old 2011-12-31, 01:53   Link #445
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It's not going to pull a AnE, that was pretty much instant, if it hasn't happened after 12/13 episodes it won't happen. AnE type bumps are one in a thousand, I'm sure Jump where expecting that bump to apply to Toriko though and not AnE.
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Old 2011-12-31, 04:18   Link #446
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
it takes 5-6k to break even

unless Peguindrum made money on something else the anime could be consider a bust sale wise.
You're forgetting the price here. The normal price for anime BD volumes is around ¥7k, but the price for penguindrum BDs is around ¥9k.

Considering that, 4k+ on sales might be enough to break even.
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Old 2011-12-31, 04:56   Link #447
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A real pity for Penguin Drum sale then. Would be a great incentive for anime industries if another original series get a similar share of what Madoka got.

Probably still profit more or less, or break even at least. But still....
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Old 2011-12-31, 05:54   Link #448
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Originally Posted by risingstar3110 View Post
A real pity for Penguin Drum sale then. Would be a great incentive for anime industries if another original series get a similar share of what Madoka got.

Probably still profit more or less, or break even at least. But still....
Anohana, Tiger x Bunny, and Hanasaku Iroha did very well (Madoka was simply off the scale, so no one expects that level of success). They prove that original series can be successful even with little pre-release hype and may give producers some confidence. Nevertheless, sales figures also reinforce the expectation that most efforts will probably fail (not that anyone needed to be told).

As for profitability of Penguindrum, who can say? It depends on their costs. However, there isn't much mixed media or merchandising potential, so performance of the anime may be more important than with some other titles.
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Old 2011-12-31, 07:17   Link #449
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Originally Posted by Kazu-kun View Post
You're forgetting the price here. The normal price for anime BD volumes is around ¥7k, but the price for penguindrum BDs is around ¥9k.

Considering that, 4k+ on sales might be enough to break even.
How many episodes in each disk? Compared to any other shows?
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Old 2011-12-31, 07:54   Link #450
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Originally Posted by Undertaker View Post
I'm actually not too worried about Chihayafuru if it is pulling in some ratings in it's day time lot. Its 24:55 slot still has advertising significant and it also has a 3:00 PM slot that would help.

Besides, anime adaption of long running Shonen and Shojo series (daytime anime) rarely put up big numbers in DVD/BD sales anyway. I don't remember Nodame or Kimi ni Todoke pulling in any earth shuttering number either. Thought it is important that the anime at least boosts the sales of manga, which both anime managed to do and help push both series to it's leadership status.

From what I heard Chihayafuru is doing decent in rating, and the manga sales has also surged, as does interest in Kuruta. So I think everything is still OK so far.
It's not actually doing that great in ratings. It tends to be stuck in the 1.*% range which is lower than the previous show (Kaiji S2) has achieved. With that said, I think the sales are still OK for the sort of show it is - I'm fairly sure the numbers are very close to 3000 even though both figures are under the threshold, and that's OK since the shows on that timeslot bomb more than often in regards to disc sales (while KimiTodo did fine but doesn't really count due to the huge popularity of the manga, Kaiji might just have sold under 500 units). The downside is that Chihayafuru is sold at a lower price than your usual anime to try and draw a larger audience, and it didn't work that well, so the profitability from the BD/DVD sales isn't as consequent as it would normally be.

As for the increase in manga sales, it doesn't seem huge:
vol. 10: 161,373
vol. 14: 171,785 (<- Sept. 13 - 19, just before the anime)
vol. 15: 192,448 (<- 2 weeks ago)

tl;dr - It's not a huge flop but not much of a success either. A second season isn't that likely, but it could still happen, especially if the series were to be adapted into a new support in the future, i.e. a TV drama or a movie. Kaiji 2 probably was pushed by the second live-action movie, same for Kimi ni Todoke 2nd season & its movie - NTV producers seem to be very receptive of these.
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Old 2011-12-31, 09:51   Link #451
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Originally Posted by all_flying View Post
How many episodes in each disk? Compared to any other shows?
3 episodes. I think that's the same for any other shows.
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:23   Link #452
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It is an absolute miracle to me how they manage to sell even a single disc with those prices.
9k Yen, that is 90€.
Just for comparison, 6 entire seasons of "How I Met your Mother" currently cost 85€ at amazon. That's 132 episodes.

Really, how did this price model even come to life?
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:33   Link #453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhomochevsky View Post
It is an absolute miracle to me how they manage to sell even a single disc with those prices.
9k Yen, that is 90.
Just for comparison, 6 entire seasons of "How I Met your Mother" currently cost 85 at amazon. That's 132 episodes.

Really, how did this price model even come to life?
Anime DVDs/Blu-Rays are basically promoted as pure Collector's items. I'm inclined to think that very few people buy the R2 version of these simply to watch the episodes on the show (which is precisely why the anime industry caring so much about episode piracy boggles my mind a bit).

At the price point that anime DVDs/Blu-Rays sell for, it's pretty clear that otakus buy them for much the same reason that they buy figurines of their favorite anime characters: To proudly display as part of their otaku fandom.
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:34   Link #454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhomochevsky View Post
It is an absolute miracle to me how they manage to sell even a single disc with those prices.
9k Yen, that is 90€.
Just for comparison, 6 entire seasons of "How I Met your Mother" currently cost 85€ at amazon. That's 132 episodes.

Really, how did this price model even come to life?
It's a price model based on the fact that, unlike regular live-action TV series that air on general TV in prime-time or day-time hours, these shows do not make any money during the TV airing (it's often an expense), and so they depend entirely on merchandise sales from within a very small niche community to cover their costs. Late-night Anime are infomericials that are trying to sell their own merchandise. Given that renting anime is also an option for most people within Japan, the people who feel driven to collect are a rather small subset of an already small audience. (Keep in mind that "cartoons for grown-ups" are not generally respected in Japan any more than they are anywhere else in the world.)

With your other example, the show has already aired on TV and recovered all of its costs through advertising and other means. Whatever money they make from the DVDs/Blu-Rays is just gravy, so they can afford to price it cheaply in order to appeal to as many people as possible. It's a marketing strategy based on mass appeal, rather than one based on appealing to a hyper-niche community. If you try to compare "hour-to-hour", niche products like anime will always fail.

Edit: See also what Triple_R said above -- indeed, it's memorabilia, not driven by any practical use or need. I rarely watch the Japanese Blu-Rays I collect; that's not why I buy them.
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:35   Link #455
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With prices like that, the idea that they are aimed only at people crazy enough to shell out huge swats of money becomes pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy, don't you think?

And besides, the thing with collectors is, that they want to collect as much as they can. So lowering the prices would allow collectors to buy even more different series. They won't stop at the amount of anime they bought before. That's not how collectors tick.
So they could lower prices without risks, because it would just distribute the same amount of money (all the money otaku have...just like now) with the additional benefit of getting non-insane people as customers too.
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:47   Link #456
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Originally Posted by TJR View Post

As for profitability of Penguindrum, who can say? It depends on their costs. However, there isn't much mixed media or merchandising potential, so performance of the anime may be more important than with some other titles.

I actually heard the Triple H CD sold pretty well. There are also the novels but I'm not sure how they sold.
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:49   Link #457
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Originally Posted by Dhomochevsky View Post
And besides, the thing with collectors is, that they want to collect as much as they can. So lowering the prices would allow collectors to buy even more different series. They won't stop at the amount of anime they bought before. That's not how collectors tick.
Not exactly true. There are collectors who just want to own as much as possible, but owning mountains of junk isn't meaningful. Besides, most people in Japan have very small houses/apartments; where are they going to keep all that stuff even if they bought it? What matters is the perceived value of the item, which has to do with a combination of price, rarity, and perception itself. Rather than buying a whole ton of stuff, it's based on collecting a smaller amount of really expensive stuff. It forces the buyer to prioritize the things they really, really want to own -- the purchase of treasures, not just "stuff".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhomochevsky View Post
So they could lower prices without risks, because it would just distribute the same amount of money (all the money otaku have...just like now) with the additional benefit of getting non-insane people as customers too.
You haven't really thought this through. When a franchise like Bakemonogatari, or Madoka Magica, or K-On comes around, the market is already conditioned to pay the asking price because that's perceived as normal. And these shows manage to push product that greatly exceeds the normal boundaries of just "insane people".

Basically, it's being sold as a luxury product, based on a "how badly do you want it" sort of system. People who want to buy it will pay the premium. People who don't want to buy it can either rent it or go without. And by doing it this way, it keeps the perceived value of anime on home media very high, which serves them well when a break-out hit comes along that ends up raking in millions upon millions.

Anyway, if you want to discuss this further, we can probably split it out into a different thread or something, though I'm sure it's been done before.
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Old 2011-12-31, 10:51   Link #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by relentlessflame View Post
It's a price model based on the fact that, unlike regular live-action TV series that air on general TV in prime-time or day-time hours, these shows do not make any money during the TV airing (it's often an expense), and so they depend entirely on merchandise sales from within a very small niche community to cover their costs. Late-night Anime are infomericials that are trying to sell their own merchandise. Given that renting anime is also an option for most people within Japan, the people who feel driven to collect are a rather small subset of an already small audience. (Keep in mind that "cartoons for grown-ups" are not generally respected in Japan any more than they are anywhere else in the world.)

With your other example, the show has already aired on TV and recovered all of its costs through advertising and other means. Whatever money they make from the DVDs/Blu-Rays is just gravy, so they can afford to price it cheaply in order to appeal to as many people as possible. It's a marketing strategy based on mass appeal, rather than one based on appealing to a hyper-niche community. If you try to compare "hour-to-hour", niche products like anime will always fail.

Edit: See also what Triple_R said above -- indeed, it's memorabilia, not driven by any practical use or need. I rarely watch the Japanese Blu-Rays I collect; that's not why I buy them.
That said, it's still an industry that generates considerable revenue for Japan. 4th most profitable commodity for Japan I believe, while manga is 3rd. It's a weird paradox where Japan resents otaku for spending so much on the fandom and being that way - yet Japan needs them to spend that much. The costing is based a fair bit on realistic sales of a niche market that isn't exactly reverred within Japan and balancing that against the production and marketing costs - which are considerable even for lower budget series. When your average budget costing to produce an episode is $120k, it isn't cheap. (An official figure from a 2007 interview from someone that worked in the industry and wrote a book on it)

Let's say a series was 12 episodes and that the average budget for each episode was that 120k. To produce the episodes alone, that would be $1.44 million. Add in some marketing and overheads costs - say it would prop it up to 2 million. (Arbitrary figure here for some simple math that isn't too far from actual prices) Say the series sold 5k copies aka the Manabi line and that each volume contained 3 episodes, so 4 volumes. How much would the DVDs need to cost to return a profit? Over 100 dollars since 100 dollars per volume is the break even number for 5k sales. Perhaps that explains why a DVD costs so much there? It's hard to make a profit in that industry from the anime itself. Although if the volumes contained 2 episodes, that price becomes 67 dollars for break even, so charging 90 dollars and getting those 5k sales gets you a 33% profit. Welcome to why volumes contained only 2 episodes for so long.

The other thing worth mentioning is that one may ask why Japan doesn't order DVDs/BDs from outside of Japan. There's a reason for that - the raws the licensers outside of Japan are sent are lower quality so that the Japanese version is the superior version - may not be such a big difference on BD but on DVD there certainly is. That's one reason they pay more than us - they get the better version in a lot of cases. I learnt this from a mate who is in the DVD industry and has delved into this. He also mentioned the subtle differences in frame rates between Japan and other countries also prevent optimum performance due to synchronisation issues. So to prevent reverse importing and the purchase of 'affordable versions', the quality of what we can purchase is considerably less in a lot of cases.

As mentioned above, bragging rights is a big part of it. Why do people buy the more expensive brands of clothing, accessories or makeup even if they aren't the best, or spend incredible amounts to go overseas to a live event? It's the idea you've got something most others haven't and that it is endearing to you. Aka massaging one's ego and image - to feel good and to make others envy you. Basic human behaviour that is part of all aspects of life.

EDIT: relentlessflame, seems I finished typing this a mere minute after you said your post with 'Let's cut the discussion here'. So I'll end mine.
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Old 2011-12-31, 11:01   Link #459
all_flying
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Originally Posted by Kazu-kun View Post
3 episodes. I think that's the same for any other shows.
So arrogant, LOL

From where did they have such confident to sells at those price I wonder
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Old 2011-12-31, 11:25   Link #460
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So arrogant, LOL

From where did they have such confident to sells at those price I wonder
For what it's worth, 9,240 yen isn't an unreasonable price for 3-episode volumes on Blu-Ray in that market. For shows that are on 9 volumes, they may do 8,190 yen with a two-episode volume at 7,140 yen. The high end would be 9,240 yen for two episodes, as seen on certain Kadokawa series. Ultimately, things are priced in part based on the total you'd be expected to spend to collect the whole show, so the longer the show the lower the price/episode. But I don't think the price for this particular show put it out of alignment with the normal metrics.

(Average for 1-cour show at MSRP: ~40k-50k yen. Average for 2-cour show at MSRP: ~65k-75k yen.)
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