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Old 2012-07-31, 18:31   Link #781
hyl
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In the case of sword art online, you have to buy the discs 1-5 from toranoana to get a chance of getting the replica word though.
http://www.toranoana.jp/info/media/121024_swordart/

Last edited by hyl; 2012-07-31 at 18:40. Reason: edit: it's indeed a lottery
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Old 2012-07-31, 18:38   Link #782
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hyl View Post
In the case of sword art online, you have to buy the discs 1-5 from toranoana to get the replica(s) though.
http://www.toranoana.jp/info/media/121024_swordart/
Usually, though, despite the way it's worded, you don't actually have to buy the discs all at once. They just figure out at the end of the day who purchased all five from their store. I admit that I'm not sure exactly how it works at Toranoana, because I've never bought from them; that's just what I know from other similar Japanese stores that have these sorts of "buy it all from us and receive" deals.

(And yes, it is a lottery. It makes me think that you might get a card with each volume you buy with them as proof of purchase, and then with the fifth volume you have to attach all the proofs of purchase to a ballot in order to be entered. Something like that would make sense for this sort of thing.)
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Old 2012-08-03, 01:11   Link #783
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I think it's fair to say 10k would be a failure for something like Sword Art, especially since its sister series whose novel sales are way behind is on track to do 10k for Volume 1. Though I'm sure Accel World will have the usual drop off and prov avg @ 8k.

Yamakan pointed out how 10k was pretty shit for a LN series as big as Index, while he was using this point as a way of saying he adapted a 30k selling manga series and outsold THE LN series of back than... he's still right that it wasn't as good as it should've been. And Index 2 increased in sales (not to mention Railgun) which showed he was right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaioshin Sama View Post
Going to eventually pass the 10K mark I would guess. I would hope this improves the chances of seeing the rest of the LN animated, this has been one of those sales stats I've actually been looking forward to seeing for that reason.
Seeing how much of a chance something has of having a sequel/staying alive is the main reason most people follow sales data in the first place. Whether it be anime, manga, video games or music etc. Looking @ sales gives you a good indication of what would get a sequel and what wouldn't. Of course you have to take into account external factors for some shows... and even than some things just blindside you, like the rumored news of a Kill Me Baby sequel I read on Neogaf.

Quote:
Temporal Blu-ray + DVD Sales Rankings for Spring 2012 (the first volumes)
*1, 12,610 Kuroko no Basket
*2, *9,455 Hyouka
*3, *9,138 Accel World
*4, *8,918 Haiyore! Nyaruko-san
*5, *7,990 AKB0048
*6, *6,966 Saki: Achiga-hen - Episode of Side-A
*7, *4,887 Eureka Seven AO
*8, *4,698 Natsuiro Kiseki
*9, *4,494 Tsuritama
10, *3,759 Queen's Blade: Rebellion
11, *3,588 Nazo no Kanojo X
12, *3,499 Jormungand
13, *3,302 Sengoku Collection
14, *3,192 Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? of the Dead
15, *2,520 Acchi Kocchi
16, *2,180 Hiiro no Kakera
17, *2,059 Tasogare Otome x Amnesia
18, *1,487 Sankarea
19, **,882 Kimi to Boku. 2
20, **,612 Zetman
You don't have to be a genius to know that sequels for the Top 4 slots are something that are a matter of when not if. Whereas stuff like Sankarea and Tasogare Otome are going to have to be split cour like Kimi to Boku 2 to ever get a second season, 99% of the time anyway.
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Old 2012-08-03, 06:45   Link #784
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Westlo View Post
You don't have to be a genius to know that sequels for the Top 4 slots are something that are a matter of when not if. Whereas stuff like Sankarea and Tasogare Otome are going to have to be split cour like Kimi to Boku 2 to ever get a second season, 99% of the time anyway.
Hyouka is doing that well on the sales front? I wasn't expecting that actually.

BTW Hyouka will probably be a great example of those external factors you're mentioning since Kyoto Animation has a very low output and only makes a couple of shows per year so it could take a long time to get a sequel out of it if it ever comes out (other more popular properties or even new, completely different ones will most likely take precedence)
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Old 2012-08-03, 08:54   Link #785
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I'm rather impressed by Tsuritama's 4K+ sales. I suspect that's pretty strong for a noitaminA series these days. Its companion, Sakamichi no Apollon, didn't make the list despite being helmed by Watanabe Shinichiro and scored by Kanno Yuko. Tsuritama was made by Nakamura Kenji of Mononoke fame. While Mononoke scored 12K+ sales back in the day, Nakamura's last two shows, Kuuchuu Buranko and [C], sold really poorly. Tsuritama has more mainstream appeal than either of those shows, though, and has already outsold the both of them combined.
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Old 2012-08-03, 10:39   Link #786
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
I'm rather impressed by Tsuritama's 4K+ sales. I suspect that's pretty strong for a noitaminA series these days. Its companion, Sakamichi no Apollon, didn't make the list despite being helmed by Watanabe Shinichiro and scored by Kanno Yuko. Tsuritama was made by Nakamura Kenji of Mononoke fame. While Mononoke scored 12K+ sales back in the day, Nakamura's last two shows, Kuuchuu Buranko and [C], sold really poorly. Tsuritama has more mainstream appeal than either of those shows, though, and has already outsold the both of them combined.
I pointed out when Tsuritama V1 went on sale that those numbers were surprisingly good, all things considered. Very much a success.

Depending on the BD/DVD mix, Sakamichi could come close to 4K - it was over 2K in BD. Tsuritama ended up being almost a 50-50 split and I could see Sakamichi doing that too, but because of its visual dexterity it might end up more BD heavy. Also, it was obviously a much more expensive series to produce, but the producers seemed resigned to it losing money before it ever aired.
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Old 2012-08-04, 09:04   Link #787
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Yes I am very glad Tsuritama did that well. It's like the little series that could.

Anyways one observation I noticed that while 2011 had a lot of hits in terms of original series (Madoka, Ano Hana, & Tiger and Bunny)

That doesn't seem to be the case with 2012, with the top series being sequels & based on established source material. I find that a bit disappointing.
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Old 2012-08-04, 09:43   Link #788
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirarakim View Post
Anyways one observation I noticed that while 2011 had a lot of hits in terms of original series (Madoka, Ano Hana, & Tiger and Bunny)

That doesn't seem to be the case with 2012, with the top series being sequels & based on established source material. I find that a bit disappointing.
I think it's a bit cyclical. Keep in mind that most projects have a 12-18 month gestation period, so the reaction to last year's successes are just starting to come out now (and a few are still being announced, like Shaft's new work). In the end, it's still a lot easier for production committees to put their money behind a proven property than an anime-original idea (not to mention the costs of getting a new franchise off the ground), so I don't necessarily expect that to ever change outright. However, I definitely think there are more anime-original stories being announced now than a few years ago.
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Old 2012-09-02, 00:40   Link #789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kunagisa View Post
SAO is not doing too hot on the store front, it's good at Tora, but at mate, softmap, Gamers it's totally just not there; another guy told me it's not near the top for HMV nor DMM either; it also doesn't demonstrate the entire series buy-in effects that AW had when it first got listed either (not talking about Amazon here). To live up to the LN fanbase, SAO has to be at least nearing 15k to be called "successful" (which is the same reason why most people think that Haganai was a "failure" adaptation because the potential could be so much higher), and 15k is already a really lenient line.
Well it's reached 15k as of today and still almost a month to release of V1. So are you willing to no longer call it a failure? Not to mention in terms of airing series this year, only Nisemonogatari, Fate/Zero and Horizon S2 have done better numbers? Considering Asuna merchandise will be prolific once the show is done and the game will be imminent, Sword Art Online will get plenty from its branding to boot. I don't see how this couldn't be a financial success anymore. And can one really call Haganai a faliure since there's a 2nd season in January 2013 and Sena merchandise is one of the better sellers of this year? Perhaps it could have done better (and in some ways it should have) but to call a 10k series a failure is somewhat rich. However, the marked decline of Fate/Zero S2 pre-orders compared to S1 sales - that I would call somewhat of a failure. Cutting back on some of the best material in that title was a bad decision on ufotable's part - and they have been made to pay for it in the pre-orders.


@Kirakim: Well, Madoka's groundwork was beeing laid in 2009. Projects take a while to get off the ground and get support. We'd really need more of a period of five years to gauge whether original source material will have long-term success or whether it was simply certain titles appearing at exactly the right time.
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Old 2012-09-05, 07:22   Link #790
Kunagisa
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^Several things
  • Points are pretty bad indicator though.
    Here's the daily chart
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Oricon
    1 ももクロ春の一大事2012�見渡せば大パノラマ地獄� K 12/9/5
    ももいろクローバーZ
    2 ももクロ春の一大事2012�ももクロ☆オールスターズ� K 12/9/5
    ももいろクローバーZ
    3 バトルシップ ブルーレイ+DVDセット(デジタル・コピー付) GUE 12/9/5
    テイラー・キッチュ
    4 モーレツ宇宙海賊 7(初回限定版) K 12/9/5
    アニメーション
    5 TARI TARI【1】 PC 12/9/5
    アニメーション

    6 アマガミSS+ plus � 森島はるか 【Blu�ray】 TBS 12/9/5
    アニメーション
    7 織田信奈の野望 � PC 12/9/5
    アニメーション
    8 AKB0048 VOL.03 K 12/9/5
    アニメーション
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stalker
    *11位/*10位 ★ (*12,619 pt) [-,---予約] 12/09/05 TARI TARI 1 (イベント招待応募券封入・初回生産限定仕様 ) [Blu-ray]
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wiki
    ○モーレツ宇宙海賊
    Blu-ray版 【全7巻】
    巻数 初動  累計 発売日
    01巻 3,734 6,472 12.03.07
    02巻 5,343 7,206 12.04.11
    03巻 6,352 7,264 12.05.09
    04巻 6,516 7,219 12.06.06
    05巻 6,826 7,175 12.07.11
    06巻 6,534 6,948 12.08.08
    07巻 *,*** *,*** 12.09.05
    Series that stay within top 10 get points so overly inflated (especially summer?), especially if you follow the store ranking. AFAIK, Pirates went out of stock on Amazon twice with volume 1's release, so it's safe to say most of its sales came from Amazon. TT hasn't gone out of stock yet.
  • SAO has yet to enter the yearly ranking for Amazon; I understand as the year goes longer, it's harder to be ranked, but the lower bound isn't really that hard to reach.
  • I didn't call it a failure, was on regurgitating what others say, hence why I put it in quotes.
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LN sales thread
    | *1巻 | *2巻 | *3巻 | *4巻 | *5巻 | *6巻 | *7巻 | *8巻 | *9巻 | 10巻 |
    | 22刷 | 19刷 | 17刷 | 15刷 | 14刷 | 10刷 | *8刷 | *4刷 | **** | **** | 12/01/27
    | 23刷 | 20刷 | 18刷 | 16刷 | 15刷 | 11刷 | *9刷 | *5刷 | **** | **** | 12/02/09
    | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | *1刷 | **** | 12/02/10 210万部
    | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | *2刷 | **** | 12/02/27
    | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | *6刷 | **** | **** | 12/03/01
    | 24刷 | 21刷 | 19刷 | 17刷 | 16刷 | 12刷 | 10刷 | *7刷 | **** | **** | 12/04/02 230万部
    | 25刷 | 22刷 | 20刷 | 18刷 | 17刷 | 13刷 | 11刷 | *8刷 | *3刷 | **** | 12/04/26
    | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | *4刷 | **** | 12/05/31 260万部
    | 26刷 | 23刷 | 21刷 | 19刷 | 18刷 | 14刷 | 12刷 | *9刷 | *5刷 | **** | 12/06/14 412万部
    | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | *1刷 | 12/07/10 440万部
    | 27刷 | 24刷 | 22刷 | 20刷 | 19刷 | 15刷 | 13刷 | 10刷 | *6刷 | **** | 12/07/24
    | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** | *2刷 | 12/07/27
    | 28刷 | 25刷 | 23刷 | 21刷 | 20刷 | 16刷 | 14刷 | 11刷 | *7刷 | **** | 12/08/07 460万部
    The books are doing extremely well, so even if the anime sold 0 it's still successful. I don't even bother following the anime anymore, but as long as the books are selling fine then I don't really care how SAO does. A-1's the new JC anyway (yes this is a joke, no I don't actually think this).
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Old 2012-09-05, 07:25   Link #791
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Please provide some translations here to conform to the Forum Rules: "Since this is an English forum we ask that all communication be in English." Or since your posting seems to be a response to Last Sinner's, perhaps you could just write a response that includes some of the figures as evidence.

I, for one, have no idea what most of those charts say except that one of them has an entry for AKB0048.
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Old 2012-09-05, 07:28   Link #792
Kunagisa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
Please provide some translations here to conform to the Forum Rules: "Since this is an English forum we ask that all communication be in English. "
There's nothing to translate, except for the ones needed to understand?

I already mentioned pirates and tari tari, rest are all numbers?
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Old 2012-09-05, 20:49   Link #793
Daniel E.
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Do remember folks that the whole point of posting those charts here is to share the info with everybody reading the thread. If you only have an untranslated version, either ask for help or try to find a translated version before posting it here.
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Old 2012-09-05, 21:04   Link #794
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An indication of what the numbers mean would be helpful. Right now it is just characters and numbers and means nothing at all to me.
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Old 2012-09-05, 21:21   Link #795
Kunagisa
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I apologize then. I guess I had just very wrongly assumed that people discussing sales would know what oricon chart, the dvd sales reporting format, and stalker points are (since all these have been previously mentioned multiple times in the thread and I have labeled what each quote is).
  • In the first quote, it's the daily ranking for the oricon chart; as enlarged, 7th volume of pirates came in 4th place, and 1st volume of Tari Tari is 5th.
  • In the second quote, Tari Tari's current stalker point is at 12,619pt.
  • In the third quote, you can tell pirates never sold more than 7,2xx per volume. The strongest sale usually is on the first day. If Tari Tari ranked below Pirates, you would assume Tari Tari probably might end up selling less than 8k, which is vastly lower than the stalker point indication (what I meant by the points are unreliable for this current period).
  • In the final quote, you can see the dates on the far right side, and you can see the numbers went up quite drastically with the release of the newest volume and the anime's broadcast, which indicated to me that no matter the sales of the SAO BD, the novel boost is already so apparent even if the anime doesn't sell a single copy, it's still successful (this part I'm just repeating from previous post).

I hope this is comprehensible.
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Old 2012-09-06, 23:32   Link #796
kresslia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kunagisa View Post
^Several things
  • Points are pretty bad indicator though.
Sorry, I don't post here often however I'll be cutting in for a second here. This is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, you could say. People always say this, but you know, I've been following points and analysis focusing on them for probably about two years now and it's rare that they are off considerably. I completely disagree that points are a bad indicator. It does seem as though Tari Tari may fall short of its stalker points, but that's just one example and we don't even have actual numbers yet.

I don't want to get into an argument with you, but SAO is honestly doing so much better than you're giving it credit for. Even if we completely ignore the points for a second here, it's pretty telling that the show has been ranking around top 10 almost ever since it was put on the site. All signs are pointing to it absolutely breezing past the 15k "success" mark you decided upon.

Last edited by kresslia; 2012-09-06 at 23:43.
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Old 2012-09-07, 05:32   Link #797
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kresslia View Post
Sorry, I don't post here often however I'll be cutting in for a second here. This is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, you could say. People always say this, but you know, I've been following points and analysis focusing on them for probably about two years now and it's rare that they are off considerably.
"People always say this", because when stalker points are off "considerably", it can be off by a massive amount. That, and some people treat stalker points as being more accurate/dependable than what they actually are.

As somebody who follows politics from time-to-time, I find that some people treat stalker points like how political junkies treat professional political polls done a few days before an election - i.e. That you can be safely assured that the actual numbers (when the sales figures/election results are released) will only be slightly off from the numbers we have right now (barring a massive last-minute scandal).

But if a political polling company had some of the mistakes that stalker points has had, no political junkie would take them seriously any more.

Stalker points are good for two things:

1. Ordering anime sales success. Shows ranked 1 through 5 will generally sell as they are ranked (i.e. No. 1 will be the best-selling, No. 2 the 2nd best-selling, etc...). There is some value in knowing that alone.

2. Providing a sales figure that can usually be considered a decent ballpark figure, but I emphasize ballpark figure.


Stalker points have some value, but they really should be taken with a big grain of salt, and I find that some of the people who talk a lot about stalker points don't really do that. Too many people treat stalker points as a totally "done deal" - If stalker points says 15 K, then it. will. sell 15 K is how I see some people talking about stalker points. It would be much better if people said things like "Stalker points suggests it will sell 15 K, so from this it's probably a good guess that it will sell at least 10 K. It's not a complete guarantee of 10K, but there's a very high likelihood of 10K sales. Of course the estimate could also be on the low side, and it could sell 20K."

If more people said that, more of the rest of us would be less skeptical about stalker points.
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Old 2012-09-07, 11:29   Link #798
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In this particular case, Stalker Points have a flaw because SAO was not available on Amazon for about a month or so after it was first solicited due to the Amazon dispute. Not knowing how long the dispute would last, some people may have already pre-ordered at other stores and thus won't be counted at Amazon. Eventually the dispute was actually resolved, and Amazon pre-orders (and thus, Stalker Points) picked up again, but we have no idea how many people already pre-ordered elsewhere and how that will bias the rankings.

Basically, Stalker Points depends on Amazon being representative of the entire market. Any time when it isn't for various reasons, it risks being unreliable. They've tried to improve the algorithm over time to accommodate for discrepancies observed, but unexpected things do happen from time-to-time.
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Old 2012-09-07, 14:34   Link #799
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Quote:
Originally Posted by relentlessflame View Post
In this particular case, Stalker Points have a flaw because SAO was not available on Amazon for about a month or so after it was first solicited due to the Amazon dispute. Not knowing how long the dispute would last, some people may have already pre-ordered at other stores and thus won't be counted at Amazon.
SAO was first solicited on July 15, and Stalker started counting July 23 at 12 noon JST (shortly after the dispute ended) so it only missed ~9 days. Because it's a late October release, I don't anticipate the Aniplex problem has a significant impact on its Stalker estimates.

But some people could still have ordered it elsewhere in the meantime, this is true. And even if Amazon had it from the start, that does not guarantee they would be perfectly representative.
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Old 2012-09-08, 01:35   Link #800
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I'm pretty sure whatever the case is or if it's 10K or 15K, SAO will sell. I mean the disappointment will just be relative but it's safe to say A-1 and the producers will earn buckloads from this.
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