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Old 2008-05-26, 06:42   Link #1
Kakashi
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These days we’re all hopeless bandwidth junkies, mainlining thousands of megabytes of data like there’s no tomorrow – and it turns out there might not be; at least as far as the current internet is concerned.

There’s a growing fear that global demand for data-hungry video services is about to outstrip capacity. Nemertes published a report which suggested that this could happen by 2010.

To use some disturbing quotes from an article:

“Two exabytes equals the total volume of information generated in 1999,” says US technology lobby group, the Internet Innovation Alliance. “The internet currently handles one exabyte of data every hour.” That’s a lot of stolen celebrity sex tapes. And of course the meteoric rise of online gaming is only adding to the problem.

What’s likely to happen because of this you say? It’s likely data traffic will slow down to a crawl so that song download in hours rather then minutes, online games will be virtually unplayable and yes anime downloads will likely be affected.

There are a number of ways to solve the problem and in Britain there’s been a lot of talk on the news and in newspapers about extending Britain’s telecoms infrastructure so that every house gets a high speed fibre optic connection. But looking at some figures it’s likely we’ll have to pay, since the overall cost for such a project is said to be around £15-20 billion . Looks like those cheap broadband deals we all love are history!

My question, what’s the story for ye outside Britanica?
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:06   Link #2
Radiosity
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The uk sucks for internet, period. I'm on an 8mb connection that runs more like 512k during the day a lot of the time (thankfully o2 are going to be in my area in a month or so, 20mb here I come ). The entire infrastructure needs to be completely overhauled, it's not like the net was ever designed for what we're now using it for.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:19   Link #3
Tiberium Wolf
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Not online gaming. They don't eat much data. More like online video streaming and BT downloads that are stressing the net to the limits. Also don't forget the ever growing spam.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:32   Link #4
Radiosity
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I find it ironic that the more technology progresses (huge filesize HD anime downloads and so on) the more the internet regresses, particularly the isps that don't want to part with their profit margins to provide better services in an ever more demanding market.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:32   Link #5
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I don't think it will affect me really. Since I pay more then the average person for my speed. :O So yeah money makes the world go round. o_O;;;
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:33   Link #6
Radiosity
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But it doesn't really work like that. I pay more for a supposedly better service, yet it's just as bad as the lower tier services the isp offers. So really I'm paying more for no reason. Maybe it's different where you live though. The UK really does suck horribly for internet.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:37   Link #7
2H-Dragon
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Originally Posted by Radiosity View Post
But it doesn't really work like that. I pay more for a supposedly better service, yet it's just as bad as the lower tier services the isp offers. So really I'm paying more for no reason. Maybe it's different where you live though. The UK really does suck horribly for internet.
I live in the Netherlands. I'm fully abusing my speed. O_o With one pc you can't really abuse it to the max. My bro is also an avid bandwith abuser We can get awesome speeds at the same time and play online games at the same time. :O I always die a little when I'm not on my own network. xD

My speed seems to rise over the years since my provider is trying to get more people on cable. Most people here are on dsl.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:39   Link #8
Radiosity
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Originally Posted by 2H-Dragon View Post
I live in the Netherlands.
Yeah, that's why I say it's probably different for you. I assume your nets don't suck horribly then compared to ours
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:41   Link #9
Ichihara Asako
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Originally Posted by 2H-Dragon View Post
I don't think it will affect me really. Since I pay more then the average person for my speed. :O So yeah money makes the world go round. o_O;;;
Your local speed means nothing. If there is congestion on the backbones then it's going to impact everybody. This is a very real issue, and one backbone providers and major ISPs have been trying very hard to stay on top of, but it is difficult.

It's one key reason why more and more ISPs across the world are introducing data limitations to their plans, so that people who download more then X per month will either pay astronomical figures for excess, or have their speed hobbled. Here in AU most ISPs will 'shape' your connection to near dialup speeds (24Mbit to 64kbit is painful) though some charge excess; the biggest ISP charges $150 per Gb over your limit.

This modal will become far more common as a stop-gap measure to help congestion as video streaming has become such a huge bandwidth hog. You can play an MMO or FPS or whatever all day and not use as much data as a video on YT does in five minutes. Gaming, and even spam mail (which is mostly text) are hardly factors at all.

It's all in torrents and streaming. The internet has become an entity far beyond what was ever envisioned and the infrastructure was designed for. Though the infrastructure is changing, we may still see problems before the changes really fall in to place. Backbone is incredibly expensive and time consuming to lay (especially undersea cables for international carriers, which is where the main issues lie.) so unfortunately all we can do is wait and hope it doesn't get too bad.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:48   Link #10
2H-Dragon
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Originally Posted by Ichihara Asako View Post
Your local speed means nothing. If there is congestion on the backbones then it's going to impact everybody. This is a very real issue, and one backbone providers and major ISPs have been trying very hard to stay on top of, but it is difficult.

It's one key reason why more and more ISPs across the world are introducing data limitations to their plans, so that people who download more then X per month will either pay astronomical figures for excess, or have their speed hobbled. Here in AU most ISPs will 'shape' your connection to near dialup speeds (24Mbit to 64kbit is painful) though some charge excess; the biggest ISP charges $150 per Gb over your limit.

It's all in torrents and streaming. The internet has become an entity far beyond what was ever envisioned and the infrastructure was designed for. Though the infrastructure is changing, we may still see problems before the changes really fall in to place. Backbone is incredibly expensive and time consuming to lay (especially undersea cables for international carriers, which is where the main issues lie.) so unfortunately all we can do is wait and hope it doesn't get too bad.
Still what's the problem in the long run? If there is demand it will be suplied. So yeah I don't see a real problem.

The way I see it, because I pay more I won't get gimped. I think the lesser paying customer is the one to suffer. Still as it is now I'm getting the speed I'm paying for.
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Old 2008-05-26, 08:57   Link #11
Deathkillz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radiosity View Post
The uk sucks for internet, period. I'm on an 8mb connection that runs more like 512k during the day a lot of the time (thankfully o2 are going to be in my area in a month or so, 20mb here I come ). The entire infrastructure needs to be completely overhauled, it's not like the net was ever designed for what we're now using it for.
Back then when I had a 1mb connection I was just drooling at the amount of stuff I can get, well compare that to dial up previously, it was a god send.

Then came the annoying DL caps even though it was an unlimited BW contract (thankyou AOL >.>).

Now I have a 8mb contract and whilst the DL caps doesn;t seem as bad, it is still annoying. Heres a lesson to be learned. Don't join AOL
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Old 2008-05-26, 09:14   Link #12
Radiosity
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Originally Posted by 2H-Dragon View Post
Still what's the problem in the long run? If there is demand it will be suplied.
It won't though. The more demand there is the more they'll shape traffic and implement other measures to stop people raping their connections.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deathkillz View Post
Back then when I had a 1mb connection I was just drooling at the amount of stuff I can get, well compare that to dial up previously, it was a god send.

Then came the annoying DL caps even though it was an unlimited BW contract (thankyou AOL >.>).

Now I have a 8mb contract and whilst the DL caps doesn;t seem as bad, it is still annoying. Heres a lesson to be learned. Don't join AOL
Yeah, when I first got broadband (when it was first introduced to the mainstream, 576k ftw lol) it was awesome. Then I got 1mb and it was still awesome. Then they started traffic shaping (thankfully my isp at the time didn't, but they actually stopped providing home connections and went totally business oriented so I had to look elsewhere). At this point, 8mb was still reasonable thanks to encryption and other forms of workaround, but now even encryption doesn't do much to help me.

As already mentioned, a completely overhauled system with a fibreoptic connection plumbed into every home AND the isps actually delivering on their end of the bargain would be great. But I can't see it happening as long as isps can continue to make their money by providing subpar services.

edit: there's also that whole issue of companies paying to have their own site in a priority list for bandwidth and basically everyone else being screwed. If that ever happens it'll be the end of the net imo. I certainly wouldn't want to pay for a connection, then have to either suffer agonizingly slow speeds on all sites that don't want to or can't pay for priority bandwidth, or pay even more money of my own for priority access.
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Old 2008-05-26, 11:10   Link #13
Kakashi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radiosity View Post
The uk sucks for internet, period..
QFT x 1000

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichihara Asako View Post
Your local speed means nothing. If there is congestion on the backbones then it's going to impact everybody. This is a very real issue, and one backbone providers and major ISPs have been trying very hard to stay on top of, but it is difficult.
Reason being because no one fancies paying. In the UK BT is implementing an overhaul of its entire communications system, but it's likely that in the end FTTH connections are inevitable and needed on a national scale. Obviously we're going to pay for this because we can't live without the internet.

It is a real problem.

Quote:
This modal will become far more common as a stop-gap measure to help congestion as video streaming has become such a huge bandwidth hog. You can play an MMO or FPS or whatever all day and not use as much data as a video on YT does in five minutes. Gaming, and even spam mail (which is mostly text) are hardly factors at all.
Everythings a factor. One hour of cruising myspace eats up around double the bandwidth of one hour of video. Myspace is the number one enemy! But iTunes, Facebook, FPS are all pushing bandwidth to the limit, these things didn't exsist a decade ago. I say video games because there's been a huge increase in online gaming so it's worth mentioning. Though true video eats up much, much more.
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Old 2008-05-26, 14:37   Link #14
Ledgem
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The problem is occurring because originally internet applications were not "always on." You view a webpage, you do a 5 second transfer. Send an email, it's a quick shot. When you're streaming video or doing heavy downloads, you're very capable of saturating your entire connection for long periods of time.

There are two solutions, and it's likely that both will need to be deployed: build up more infrastructure (the obvious choice), and develop more effective peering. For those of us in America, Verizon and now Comcast have gotten over the stigma of P2P activity and are attempting to design more efficient peering communication with P2P companies. For example, if I'm out here in Los Angeles using RoadRunner and there are 10 other RoadRunner users, but my client wants to go to someone in the UK, the overall bandwidth (crossing over all networks) is greater than if my client had preferred to stay within the RoadRunner network, or even to anyone in Los Angeles (my geographical area).

It should yield faster speeds, be cheaper to the ISPs (who have to pay each other every time traffic goes outside of their network)... in short, it's a win-win situation so long as clients don't begin to strongly discriminate against foreign clients, or clients on a different network.

We may experience a bit of a crunch while companies increase infrastructure (if they choose to - it's expensive), but the more effective peering is already being tested.
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Old 2008-05-26, 18:25   Link #15
Kang Seung Jae
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Korea seems to have no worries: We build up our stuff as fast as we use them.
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Old 2008-05-26, 18:36   Link #16
Aoie_Emesai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kakashi-san View Post
Looks like those cheap broadband deals we all love are history!

My question, what’s the story for ye outside Britanica?
I don't have cheap broadband to begin with. I have the 8mgbit deal from Comcast for $72.50 or so a month which is about as high as you pay for slow *** Comcast service.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Radiosity View Post
But it doesn't really work like that. I pay more for a supposedly better service, yet it's just as bad as the lower tier services the isp offers. So really I'm paying more for no reason. Maybe it's different where you live though. The UK really does suck horribly for internet.
I pay for the highest teir in my area, and it still isn't what I would consider "good for the money."

ps: Well... for I do believe most US users like me, there are few places for Fiber Optics, due to the already developed areas where we live and placing super high speed connections like Fiber Optics, to a town like mine isn't even necessary due to the cost of the lines and the lack of subscribers. Not everyone needs Fiber Optics, and of course I don't need the speed for my regular usage, but for the bandwidth and price of it, it's better than staying with Comcast even though their service is half decent.

I wish we had Verizon over here. 20/20!! ^^
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Old 2008-05-26, 19:15   Link #17
Ichihara Asako
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I pay $130 a month for 8Mbit, 36Gb quota. But that is really besides the point.

Local speed, what you pay for, what your ISP promises, means nothing, as I said. Even on a national level, unless all you're using is local content. The international backhaul is where the congestion is going to start, because there's a hellova lot of data over very (relatively) small pipes.

For instance here in AU, a new backbone is being laid up to Guam. It's a 1.6Tb link. Wow, 1.6Tb, some people may think. But really, that's not very much at all in he grand scheme of things. 24Mbit ADSL2 is widely available here now, to millions of homes. But 1.6Tbit is only capable of supporting 65600*24. So if 66000 people maxed out their connections it would choke the backbone. Of course, MOST users at the moment don't max out their connections. Not even 10% of them. But wait, 66k is very little when over ten million people have broadband.

Of course there are other links, this isn't the only one, but it's being laid to expand international capacity because the current links are straining. SCX, a link to the US is currently being upgraded from 320Gbit to 1.2Tbit, and there's also a link to Japan in the 500Gbit range iirc (though they may have upgraded capacity too) but all in all, total international bandwidth isn't even 5Tbit, serving over ten million people. Even 8Mbit speed I have, which is available pretty much nationwide, that's only 625000 people capable of maxing out their lines at the same time. Expand that to two million people browsing youtube in an evening, a million people torrenting, stuff like that, it really adds up.

The international pipes are where the problem lies. So stop thinking "I'm okay, I live in a great country and pay a premium" because where you live means nothing if the links to that region are saturated (especially in Europe with hundreds of millions of people on the same links to the US, for instance) -- it is a real issue, and it's ignorant to think it won't impact you.
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Old 2008-05-26, 19:21   Link #18
yezhanquan
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It's updates like this that makes me glad that I'm not addicted to torrenting or watching stuff on youtube.
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Old 2008-05-26, 19:23   Link #19
Spectacular_Insanity
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I've never had any real brolems with the internet except when cable goes down because of a storm or something. As long as I don't download *too* many movies and bog down my computer, it runs fast and smooth.
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Old 2008-05-26, 19:23   Link #20
Kang Seung Jae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichihara Asako View Post
I pay $130 a month for 8Mbit, 36Gb quota. But that is really besides the point.

Local speed, what you pay for, what your ISP promises, means nothing, as I said. Even on a national level, unless all you're using is local content. The international backhaul is where the congestion is going to start, because there's a hellova lot of data over very (relatively) small pipes.
That's the main strength of Korea: Almost everything we do is so localized, that we rarely rely on international lines for torrenting and stuff, meaning our external connection is like a somewhat empty highway.


The only main problem we have is PRC, which tends to use their outside connections a bit.....
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