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Old 2008-10-03, 18:12   Link #281
Xellos-_^
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Isn't it a Slayers reference? That's what I assumed, anyway...
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Old 2008-10-05, 07:44   Link #282
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The documentary "Maxed Out" aired on TV in my country. As a foreigner, all I can say is "... Wow." And that's only the first half.
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Old 2008-10-05, 08:12   Link #283
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Will the bailout money plan stop the financial crisis?

Just read some news from BBC, and now German mortgage...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7653317.stm
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Old 2008-10-05, 23:57   Link #284
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Of course not. It will lead into massive inflation.
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Old 2008-10-06, 00:02   Link #285
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Originally Posted by Shin Muhammad View Post
Will the bailout money plan stop the financial crisis?

Just read some news from BBC, and now German mortgage...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7653317.stm
am i bad person when i feel good that the entire world is sharing in the economic misery?
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Old 2008-10-06, 00:13   Link #286
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You will feel bad when anime is something that will become extremely hard to obtain. Whether is be the virtual stoppage of fan subs because they can't afford to keep the sites running, or the bankruptcy of the licensees, or the inability as you, the consumer to purchase internet because of high inflation rates, you will see a very large reduction in anime/manga.


Unless you live directly in Japan of course.
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Old 2008-10-06, 00:15   Link #287
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
am i bad person when i feel good that the entire world is sharing in the economic misery?
Yes, for hoping for such a thing.

No, for hoping for it, since changes occur after depressions.
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Old 2008-10-06, 04:34   Link #288
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Well, if industrial companies start getting the wham of no credit to their businesses, THEN it's the time to panic.
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Old 2008-10-06, 08:16   Link #289
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It is coming. This bill will stabilize the economy for a while, but it is probably going to lead to a massive depression for the US and recessions for many nations world wide. I am getting ready for the day I can't afford internet because of inflation.
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Old 2008-10-06, 11:40   Link #290
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And stocks continue to spiral today. Its always interesting to watch "big time" institutional investors who are supposed to make decisions with skilled rational analysis act like scared sheep. Companies that are perfectly profitable, well-balanced, beat their projections, and show every indication that such will continue are being beaten senseless by sell-offs of their stock. It is like some form of incompetent insanity.
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Old 2008-10-06, 11:58   Link #291
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Yes, for hoping for such a thing.

No, for hoping for it, since changes occur after depressions.
i am not hoping for it but i am feeling just a bit happy that the European who have been critizing the US on the economic crisis just found out their own house is on fire.

The US has unregulated capitalism. So what is Europe's excuse with their Social-Capitalism.

On the bright side, the economic crisis has shown that the world economic so interlink the chance of WWIII is going to be very remote. The world is going swim together or drown together.
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Old 2008-10-06, 13:22   Link #292
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Quote:
The US has unregulated capitalism. So what is Europe's excuse with their Social-Capitalism.
Hmm, could it be due to the fact that things nowadays are much more interconnected? That companies in Europe have invested on US companies?

I'm just sayin'.
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Old 2008-10-06, 13:36   Link #293
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Hmm, could it be due to the fact that things nowadays are much more interconnected? That companies in Europe have invested on US companies?

I'm just sayin'.
if you read the recent articles on the economic crisis in Ireland and England, they both sound quite similar to the US story.

A housing Bubble and Lax lending standards
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Old 2008-10-06, 13:44   Link #294
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Hell, even some of the Asian markets are feeling it(Though not nearly as bad as the West).


Either way, the next few years are going to be hard. We will see a very noticeable decrease of traffic and activity even on this site.
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Old 2008-10-06, 13:52   Link #295
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On the whole, the TARP signed by Bush on Friday doesn't seem to be able to do much to stabilize the problems in the financial sector. In many ways, it's even worse than the one that failed in the House last Monday, but the details aren't all that important since the critical components are just about the same. Think of it this way, the Fed tossed $630 billion into the markets last Monday and it did precisely nothing. The most reasonable conclusion is that the plan was meant to accomplish something altogether different - my suspicion is that it was meant to calm foreign investors and banks so that they'd keep the lending taps open. However, the weakness in many European banks is likely to make that impossible to accomplish. Asian banks tend to be a lot more conservative, but they're not going to be able to weather the storm alone. A major worldwide recession is looking more and more likely. A more realistic government action would have been to consider it in terms of triage rather than a rescue.

Another curious note is that there've been a few systemic banking failures in the last few decades. Why is it that the Treasury doesn't try to learn the better lessons from these failures and apply what solutions worked in past rather than try something totally new? (And something that a great many economists think is insane to boot.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerII
It is coming. This bill will stabilize the economy for a while, but it is probably going to lead to a massive depression for the US and recessions for many nations world wide. I am getting ready for the day I can't afford internet because of inflation.
If the recession is a worldwide phenomenon, inflation shouldn't be a major problem. Weakened industrial demand should cause commodity prices to drop drastically, and we're already seeing a lot of the consequences of that in the falling oil prices. Moreover, inflation figures for the last little while has already hidden a lot of the price of living increases since they tend not to include food and energy prices. These pressures are going to ease, so we should see too much trouble from that direction. In fact, it might be a good idea for central banks to lower interest rates; at least for the short term.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vexx
And stocks continue to spiral today. Its always interesting to watch "big time" institutional investors who are supposed to make decisions with skilled rational analysis act like scared sheep. Companies that are perfectly profitable, well-balanced, beat their projections, and show every indication that such will continue are being beaten senseless by sell-offs of their stock. It is like some form of incompetent insanity.
I think that a lot of investors know that the bailout is going to accomplish squat, and that a severe recession is inevitable. They're trying to find shelter so they're trying to escape stocks in general. The rest are lemmings following the herd. I can't say that it's a bad idea in general, but it's going to be real bad when (and if) the bond market explodes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^
i am not hoping for it but i am feeling just a bit happy that the European who have been critizing the US on the economic crisis just found out their own house is on fire.

The US has unregulated capitalism. So what is Europe's excuse with their Social-Capitalism.
"Europe" hardly has a monolithic approach to banking. You'll note that the most financially conservative of European banks are in quite good shape, while it's the under-regulated ones that are in the most trouble. And a lot of those European banks invested in the American financial system.




Offtopic:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^
On the bright side, the economic crisis has shown that the world economic so interlink the chance of WWIII is going to be very remote. The world is going swim together or drown together.
Historically, the two aren't really related. At the outset of World War I, two of the most interconnected economies in the world were France and Germany.
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Old 2008-10-06, 14:33   Link #296
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The US$700b bailout had, as we all now know, been an arbitrarily large number to boost market confidence, to assure investors that there is a definite floor beneath how far house prices can continue to fall.

The moment the rescue failed to go ahead last Monday, the plan had already failed. As I've already noted last Friday, while I could respect Congress for voting against the Bill last Monday, their eventual turnaround made me lose faith entirely. It's essentially the same Bill — if it wasn't good enough at the beginning of the week, why should it be good enough by the end of it?

Again, as I've already noted, I'm not surprised that many investors feel the same way. So, you see, that's where the problem lay — the extra time forced investors to examine the rescue plan in closer detail, and in the process, they realised it wasn't going to be as good as they would hope. Already, by the middle of last week, I was coming across various opinions about how American stocks remain overvalued, despite the recent crashes, let alone now.

The realisation now is that the fallout from a weakening US economy has affected economies in other countries. Thus the chain effect causing market sentiments to wobble the world over. News about weaknesses in the euro zone's banking sector certainly have not helped to boost confidence either.

Most curious of all, though, the greenback has actually shot up in value over the weekend. I know this firsthand, because I've just bought US dollars today. Had I bought a day earlier, I would have saved a substantial amount. -__-

Apparently, this is because investors are flocking to the de facto global reserve currency amid uncertain times. There aren't too many other things they can invest on — gold and commodities are already too high for comfort, and oil prices could fall further as demand falls due to weakening economies.

To put it simply, we live in interesting times.
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Old 2008-10-06, 14:37   Link #297
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4tran, the only thing that doesn't fit is the world falls into a recession, while the US falls into a depression. The next several years are going to be hard. I just wonder if it will be to the point of mass starvation and bread lines, such as in the 1930s.
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Old 2008-10-06, 14:44   Link #298
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
It's essentially the same Bill if it wasn't good enough at the beginning of the week, why should it be good enough by the end of it?
My jaded, only slightly joking answer is that they weren't adding riders for their own interests yet. 700 billion is too shocking a number to consider in the name of rescuing the economy--oh, unless getting another 100 billion in free money can be attached to it. Then it's OK, apparently.
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Old 2008-10-06, 14:49   Link #299
TinyRedLeaf
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A crisis as acute as the Great Depression is highly unlikely to occur again at this moment, unless America suffers a sudden panic attack and decides to go 100% protectionist. Unemployment in the United States may have gone up over last month, but it's still nowhere near as high as the 20% unemployment at the height of the Great Depression.

That means that most Americans still have their jobs. And as long as they have jobs, they will still have wages to spend, even though each dollar may not last as long as it used to. So, there's no need to panic, yet.

Another crucial difference is that we have a much more fluid, globalised world economy today than we did in the 1930s. So long as the US doesn't shut out foreign funds seeking bargains to buy, money will continue to flow into the country, making it easier for the Treasury to carry out its rescue plan.

My advice is to ignore the market swings. We're going through a very turbulent patch, so it's natural for markets to behave erratically. In the meantime, the toxic debts will be cleared from the books, and health will gradually return. Believe it or not, President Bush is right — it will take time to see the positive effects of the Bill.
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Old 2008-10-06, 15:42   Link #300
4Tran
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf
The US$700b bailout had, as we all now know, been an arbitrarily large number to boost market confidence, to assure investors that there is a definite floor beneath how far house prices can continue to fall.

The moment the rescue failed to go ahead last Monday, the plan had already failed. As I've already noted last Friday, while I could respect Congress for voting against the Bill last Monday, their eventual turnaround made me lose faith entirely. It's essentially the same Bill — if it wasn't good enough at the beginning of the week, why should it be good enough by the end of it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyuusai
My jaded, only slightly joking answer is that they weren't adding riders for their own interests yet. 700 billion is too shocking a number to consider in the name of rescuing the economy--oh, unless getting another 100 billion in free money can be attached to it. Then it's OK, apparently.
While a lot of pundits were talking about the changes in the bills, I think that it comes down to a bunch of Representatives and their constituents buying into the "sky is falling" rhetoric that was floated out there by media outfits over the whole week. Those who switched probably thought that there'd be significant negative consequences for the whole country if they didn't rush the plan throuh. Unfortunately, the scare tactics didn't raise any awareness of alternative plans that would do a much better job of remedying the problems. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of today's panic has to do with the scare tactics that convinced Congress - it's not as if investors are insulated from all the doom and gloom.

As it stands, the American taxpayer is going to get majorly ripped off to the benefit of a few financial institutions. Foreign investors might end up benefitting from TARP most of all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf
To put it simply, we live in interesting times.
Indeed, the only thing for certain is that there's going to be a lot of volatility for a long time unless there's some sort of major crash. This is a terrible time to be an investor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerII
4tran, the only thing that doesn't fit is the world falls into a recession, while the US falls into a depression. The next several years are going to be hard. I just wonder if it will be to the point of mass starvation and bread lines, such as in the 1930s.
While there are signs of severe problems, I don't think that a Depression is in the offing. Still, it's a major problem that the U.S.' export economy is mostly either agriculture or high-ticket items. The former should do okay (depending on what happens to subsidies in other markets), but the latter is going to tank if there's no one out there willing to spend the big bucks for luxury items in a poor economy. Of all the major powers out there, China might well be in the best shape because of their robust industrial output. If they can continue the trend of consuming more of that output domestically, they're going to come out of this mess in decent shape. Commodity producing countries will probably be okay as well when the world economy rebounds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf
My advice is to ignore the market swings. We're going through a very turbulent patch, so it's natural for markets to behave erratically. In the meantime, the toxic debts will be cleared from the books, and health will gradually return. Believe it or not, President Bush is right — it will take time to see the positive effects of the Bill.
I'm having a lot of trouble seeing much in the way of positive effects. Sure, the banks will be better capitalized, but that doesn't mean that they'll be any more willing to give out loans - all it means is that they'd be able to cut their losses and they'll probably put what money they have into safer places. Moreover, $700 billion isn't close to being enough to clear out all the toxic debts. <snark>Thank goodness that the figure isn't that actual total - it's just a figure that can be tapped over and over again.</snark>

One good indicator is going to be what happens when the holdings of Freddie & Fannie, Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual get auctioned off.
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