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Old 2009-06-10, 21:58   Link #1181
Christen
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo
As far as I remember only Kyrie (at least her own mother does!) and Rosa seem to remember her existence, during the family conference. There's also the scene in ep1 (that I think was repeated in ep2) in the airport when Eva and Kyrie talk about Ange being sick.
I think Jessica is referring to their cousin group 6 years ago. Ange wasn't born back then. Possible slip of tongue.
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:00   Link #1182
Jan-Poo
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You have a point on the seagulls but your theory has also a weak point. Beatrice uses the red truth by saying "I will kill you". Now I can imagine Beatrice being the manifestation of a Volcano. Volcanos are named and such. But Beatrice being a defective Boiler room?
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:02   Link #1183
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Couldn't the seagulls return to the other areas of the island too?

I think the volcano theory is the best fit really.
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:03   Link #1184
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As far as the volcano theory, in all honestly I think that if the family found out there was an active volcano on their island they might be forced to get off it, as a safety hazard.
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:15   Link #1185
Christen
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A clarification, Battler died after his exchange with Beatrice right? So that means he's in front of the mansion when it happened?
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:15   Link #1186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
You have a point on the seagulls but your theory has also a weak point. Beatrice uses the red truth by saying "I will kill you". Now I can imagine Beatrice being the manifestation of a Volcano. Volcanos are named and such. But Beatrice being a defective Boiler room?
Who says that Beatrice is the incarnation of something though?
If she had set the boiler to explode, on purpose, and then it went off, wouldn't that be the same as if she had pulled the trigger herself?
If you rig a something to malfunction, with the intention of killing someone, that's murder. So her saying "Battler, I will kill you" doesn't specify that she was right there, waiting to kill him, it just means that, through her will, Battler will die. That will could have been decided and put into motion long before. Be like a mob hit, with a car bomb.
Also, the island isn't exactly very big. It's only 2km long, which is about a mile and a half. A volcano would cause a lot more damage than a quarter of a mile or so, to remove the mansion, leave Kuwadorian untouched, and make the whole island still pretty only a mere 12 years later.

Spoiler for Episode 4 and Higurashi:
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:18   Link #1187
Marion
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A clarification, Battler died after his exchange with Beatrice right? So that means he's in front of the mansion when it happened?
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:23   Link #1188
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Also Ange is declared dead at 1998, but I'm not entirely sure of her cause of death; am I to assume that no miracle occurs of Ange and she is killed by Kasumi?

At one point I thought that Battler committed suicide.
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Old 2009-06-10, 22:28   Link #1189
Marion
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Also Ange is declared dead at 1998, but I'm not entirely sure of her cause of death; am I to assume that no miracle occurs of Ange and she is killed by Kasumi?

At one point I thought that Battler committed suicide.
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Old 2009-06-10, 23:33   Link #1190
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Why are we blaming Eva for ep3? Because we've been told to? Come on, let's not be dupes here: at most, Eva killed Rosa, Maria, Krauss and Natsuhi, and most likely did shoot Battler! And Rosa could've been an accident or even self-defense. Maria could've been killed out of desperation. Krauss and Natsuhi could've gotten suspicious, or Eva could've become paranoid. And Eva was clearly not well when Battler confronted her and got shot.

But all those other deaths? Not Eva. First Twilight doesn't match "her" MO anyway, and she has no reason to even start killing until she finds the gold. That's six deaths she almost certainly didn't do. She wouldn't kill Hideyoshi and George under any circumstances. That's two more. Kyrie and Rudolf probably got into a gunfight with Hideyoshi over his covering for her. Two more. Nanjo can't have been killed by her. And why would she kill Jessica? She didn't even know where she was. The vast majority of the deaths in ep3 weren't Eva, and we don't know if her actions were justifiable (she was having nightmares and may have believed herself to be actually responsible, meaning she might take credit for things she didn't do)
Alright, I can see where you're coming from. That raises the question of who WAS behind the first twilight though. It was stated in red that Jessica wasn't a murderer. Maria is likely to be working with the person taking the name 'Beatrice' but she isn't capable of that alone. Given the similar MOs in the first three games' first twilights (the symbols on the doors, the locked rooms etc), I have trouble believing that anyone who has died in the first twilight, of the first 3 games at least, can be one of its planners. But all 3 seem like they were carried out by the same person. But who knows, they ARE pretty crazy on that island...

Spoiler for Ep3:


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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Kinzo met Beatrice after the war (1945+)
Captain kawabata started shipping goods to the kuwadorian around the year 1948
The Ronkkejima Mansion's construction ended in the year 1952
The Ushiromiya's family moved from Odawara to Rokkenjima in the year 1956
A young Beatrice died in 1967, around the same year Kawabata was told it wasn't any longer necessary for him to go to the kuwadorian.
Okay, I was mistaken about the year of the young Beato's death, didn't go back to check that. Need to go back and make a new set of saves... Well, if it was a year later, there's no chance of the Jessica being the second Beatrice's daughter. Still, I've been leaning more toward the idea Jessica may actually be Asumu's daughter. Regardless of when she was brought into Krauss' family, her appearance may still have caught Kinzo's attention.
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Old 2009-06-11, 00:00   Link #1191
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Originally Posted by Christen View Post
I think Jessica is referring to their cousin group 6 years ago. Ange wasn't born back then. Possible slip of tongue.
Actually, this is a little weirder than I initially thought. Ange said she'd been to the conference before, so they used to have 4 cousins there. You'd think at least somebody would be like "too bad she couldn't make it" or something.

Not to mention that the seating arrangement should have placed Ange as the lowest of the cousins, but consequently there would be an empty space before the parents who married into the family.

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Another notable thing is that Ange doesn't go the the Mansion. Why? Even if 12 years have passed the Mansion should be still there.
It was supposedly at the bottom of the cliffs.

(Sorry for pasting from the script, but it's the easiest way.)

Quote:
`I could only see desolated forest and rock walls spread out below me.`@
`......But, somehow, I realized that the mansion was probably somewhere around there.`\
`The steep downward slope beyond this hill had probably been caused by landslides from 12 years of wind and rain.`\
`It had become a slant filled with crags that you might even call gentle cliffs,`@` and it would be easy to tumble down, though it looked like climbing back would be pretty difficult.`@
`.........In any event, it seemed that proceeding any further would be impossible.`\
This is also the basis of my landslide theory, which is that Battler dies in a landslide at the end.

Typhoons often result in landslides, and we know that the mansion had been around for far more than 12 years previously. There's no reason a mansion would sink to the bottom of a bunch of cliffs just because nobody was using it.

Consequently, the landslide that caused the formation of the cliffs was an unusual event, and very likely was related to the typhoon. Since the typhoon was slated to end that day, the most obvious time for the landslide to occur would have been right when Battler died, pretty much.

Kuwadorian may have been located just so that the landslide "missed" it.
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Old 2009-06-11, 00:08   Link #1192
Renall
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I don't think the First Twilights are necessarily by the same person each time. Consider:

1) In episode 1, the bodies are placed in a (marked) shed. The shed is locked, but the key is outside the shed. Thus, there's no "closed room mystery." The bodies have smashed or half-smashed heads.

2) In episode 2, the bodies are in the chapel. The chapel key is in Maria's possession, but it isn't in the room with the victims (meaning the only thing making this a closed room is the red text that has to be navigated, and it can be). The victims are posed rather morbidly, appear to have died without realizing they were dying, and have had their stomachs cut open. The door is marked, but it also has text that wasn't there in ep1.

3) In episode 3, the bodies are in a closed room chain. These are closed rooms, or at least they have the appearance of such. The victims, however, are simply shot. All doors are marked.

4) In episode 4, if indeed the dining room is the First Twilight, everyone was apparently just shot to death at close range in the head with a shotgun or something. The room is not even remotely closed, there are witnesses, and there are survivors who are supposedly taken hostage. No magic symbols or marks appear at all.

Now I ask you: What makes you believe these are the work of the same person? The magic symbols? Consider this: the magic symbols are located OUTSIDE! Anyone who wanted to take credit for the first series of murders has 6 or so hours to do whatever they want, and that could include moving bodies or painting occult symbols. The person who painted the magic circle is not the person who killed the victims!

And now, some interesting facts about your killers:

The Head-Smasher Gouger Person: Maria trusts this person. See ep1 Ninth Twilight and her death in ep4. Is this the person posing as Beatrice? If so, it's ironic, because despite posing as Beatrice, they seem to care not the slightest bit for the ritual...

The "Shooter": Someone is gunning people down with clean, efficient shots. This person appears to be the one who favors elaborate closed rooms. Killings by other killers don't seem terribly concerned with this. For examples, see the ep1 Second Twilight, ep3 First Twilight, and ep4 Ninth Twilight.

The Poisoner: Someone is killing in a way that seems to leave the body mostly intact. They have some means of sedating and/or poisoning people to death. This seems to suggest they have ways to ensure that people take the poison without putting up too much of a fight... this killer may be getting co-opted by...

The Staker: May not be any of these people. May not even be a killer. After all, it'd be much easier to follow the killers around and stake the bodies afterwards. If this person's goal is to make the murders appear to be a ritual, it might be easier to just let them work and then shove some stakes in. Poisoner may be involved because some people are killed and staked in non-fatal areas with no signs of other wounds. Now who could be doing this?
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Old 2009-06-11, 00:24   Link #1193
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I thought everyone already figured they weren't, but yeah.
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Old 2009-06-11, 00:48   Link #1194
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Now I ask you: What makes you believe these are the work of the same person? The magic symbols? Consider this: the magic symbols are located OUTSIDE! Anyone who wanted to take credit for the first series of murders has 6 or so hours to do whatever they want, and that could include moving bodies or painting occult symbols. The person who painted the magic circle is not the person who killed the victims!

And now, some interesting facts about your killers:

The Head-Smasher Gouger Person: Maria trusts this person. See ep1 Ninth Twilight and her death in ep4. Is this the person posing as Beatrice? If so, it's ironic, because despite posing as Beatrice, they seem to care not the slightest bit for the ritual...

The "Shooter": Someone is gunning people down with clean, efficient shots. This person appears to be the one who favors elaborate closed rooms. Killings by other killers don't seem terribly concerned with this. For examples, see the ep1 Second Twilight, ep3 First Twilight, and ep4 Ninth Twilight.

The Poisoner: Someone is killing in a way that seems to leave the body mostly intact. They have some means of sedating and/or poisoning people to death. This seems to suggest they have ways to ensure that people take the poison without putting up too much of a fight... this killer may be getting co-opted by...

The Staker: May not be any of these people. May not even be a killer. After all, it'd be much easier to follow the killers around and stake the bodies afterwards. If this person's goal is to make the murders appear to be a ritual, it might be easier to just let them work and then shove some stakes in. Poisoner may be involved because some people are killed and staked in non-fatal areas with no signs of other wounds. Now who could be doing this?
Interesting line of thought. 4 separate killers, 4 sets of parents, 4 cousins... And well, even though I took my theory and tried to apply it in such a way as to put most of the blame on Jessica and Kanon, the original premise I started with was that Jessica was just an instigator, using her wide array of knowledge to get the ball rolling and let things mostly take care of themselves. The points you raise seem to support this.

Jessica could still be the poisoner (would tie in with my theory that she poisoned Battler and Maria in the guest house in Ep4). Gohda, Kumasawa or Shannon could take the poisoner slot as well, since all of them prepare food/tea/water at various times. Kanon could fill the Gouger spot, poisoning and shooting don't seem his style, and his 'weapon of choice' in magical scenes is a slashing weapon. Though pretty much anyone could be the gouger. Hideyoshi and Rudolph both seem to know their way around firearms pretty well (Rudolph doesn't live very long in any of the games though...). Staker needs to be someone who generally lives to the late game, or else can fake their death and move about unsupervised. Hard not to put that one a cousin or maybe Nanjo. The servants and parents don't have any consistent pattern of living or dying, aside from Rudolph and Kyrie generally dying in the first half of the game or so.
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Old 2009-06-11, 01:02   Link #1195
k//eternal
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If something's poisoned, my guess is it's the wine.

Other than the landslide theory, my other "main" idea for EP4 is that the head-smash victims were poisoned first, hence Jessica's "they got me" line, and the fact that a few people didn't even get up when they were getting shot at.
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Old 2009-06-11, 01:23   Link #1196
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Changing the topic for a second, sorry if this has been asked, but does anyone have any ideas as to what Ange saw on the display cabinet? It could be anything, but I assume it must have something to do with beato and battler because of what Ange says.
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Old 2009-06-11, 03:02   Link #1197
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Changing the topic for a second, sorry if this has been asked, but does anyone have any ideas as to what Ange saw on the display cabinet? It could be anything, but I assume it must have something to do with beato and battler because of what Ange says.
The current theory seems to be that it is Sakutaro's 'vessel'. Although how or why it's there we can only speculate. After this is also when Ange confronts Maria in the Golden Land and says she can ressurect him. At one point Ange says the doll isn't needed, it's just that Maria beleives so strongly that he is gone that he can't be resurrected. Finding the doll would explain how she is able to change Maria's mind so quickly. I'm relatively new here so I'm hoping I've got my facts straight.
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Old 2009-06-11, 03:35   Link #1198
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The current theory seems to be that it is Sakutaro's 'vessel'. Although how or why it's there we can only speculate. After this is also when Ange confronts Maria in the Golden Land and says she can ressurect him. At one point Ange says the doll isn't needed, it's just that Maria beleives so strongly that he is gone that he can't be resurrected. Finding the doll would explain how she is able to change Maria's mind so quickly. I'm relatively new here so I'm hoping I've got my facts straight.
I saw something to do with Sakutaro a few pages back, but that's confusing me. Didn't Ange say something around the lines of, 'Onee-chan and beatrice...' when she saw it? Maybe I misread it? Hrmmm...
Anyway, thank you.
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Old 2009-06-11, 04:33   Link #1199
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Spoiler for All games.:
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Spoiler for All games.:
This doesn't really disproove your theory, but I don't really think Krauss or Natsuhi are distant from Jessica, they just expect a lot from her, and there have been several moments where they've showed love for Jessica.

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Spoiler for All games.:


Well, if Kinzo was indeed raping Jessica, I don't think she would be the same. She shows fear for Kinzo, but at the same time insults him often. I don't think if someone raped you, you would so activly insult them, rather I think just hearing his name would cause her to just freeze. Of course, with this, you could say Jessica is in denial, or left those memories to her Beatrice personality. (You said this later, so...)

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Spoiler for All games.:
I just wanted to point out, this is a contradiction in your reasoning. You say that Krauss is distant from Jessica, but then later say that he loves her enough to go to the extreme of killing to protect her. It's also the same for if Jessica killed Kinzo. Krauss would have to love her a lot to protect her.


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I don't think Kanon acts as if he knows Jessica is Beato, otherwise I think he would be a lot more cold to her.

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Spoiler for All games.:
However, I do not think it would be possible for Jessica to give Maria the letter.

For one thing, Battler and George confirm her alibi, she was with them the entire time.
For another thing, even assuming Jessica said she needed to use the bathroom, and ran out to give Maria the umbrella, it probably still wouldn't be unnoticed. Since the wind is blowing so hard, the rain won't fall straight down, so I'm sure Jessica would get wet still, despite having an umbrella. Not only that, her shoes would also be wet, from walking around outside.
And, if she toke the time to dry herself, it would take such a long time that Battler or George might have thought about how Jessica was gone for such a long time.
Of course, these are all just inferences, as there is no solid evidence.



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I guess you are thinking about the various scenes and talks that apparently show zero consideration for the poor Ange

http://www.mirthegreat.com/temp/umineko/cousins.jpg
Well, to be fair, I think she was refering to how it was 6 years ago. Alternativly, just a slip-up.

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This is actually an interesting point. We haven't been told anything about what were the Police conclusions on the case. And this is very strange considering that normally Eva wouldn't escape a death sentence. She was the only person left on the island and noone else could go there or leave.
Actually the whole Rokkenjima case is often referred to as an incident.
Another notable thing is that Ange doesn't go the the Mansion. Why? Even if 12 years have passed the Mansion should be still there.

My guess is that that side of the island was completely covered by lava. The police couldn't find anything. The Mansion, The chapel, the guesthouse... they do not exist anymore. Eva was the only sruvivor because she reached the land of gold i.e. the kuwadorian, who happens to be on the other side of the island, and therefore was unaffected by the catastrophe. Really the only way to survive is solving the riddle.
It's not enough to say Eva survived. In fact, it's a Devil's Proof. Just because Eva was the only known person on the island who survived, doesn't mean their weren't more that people don't know of.

They would need actual physical evidence to convict Eva. An arguement of "She was there and survived" wouldn't hold up, and it definitly wouldn't give anyone the death penalty.

As for Ange, how would she do this? She was being completly bound by Eva. It would be very hard for her to go to Rokkenjima while Eva was alive. And, even if she somehow got away, Eva would have all the guards and such after Ange.

Not only that, but at that point, Ange probably didn't really have money to throw around - Eva controlled it all.

And, I find it hard to believe that a volcanic eruption wouldn't make it into the news.

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Alright, I can see where you're coming from. That raises the question of who WAS behind the first twilight though.
I made a theory shortly into Episode 4, and posted it after I finished. It's really an alternate to Eva, but you can also mix it in with Eva being the culprit.

Kasumi kills Kyrie and takes her place on the island, carrying out the killings.

The biggest reason I have to think this is a contradiction in red text (or possibly just a mistake by Ryukishi - it wouldn't be the first time I made some huge theory around a mistake. I'm looking at you, 1.46 kilometers per hour.)

Eva-Beatrice says about Kyrie: "She didn't tell anyone the reason she changed her mind, nor was it written!"

However, afterwards, we are told that Kyrie told Rudolph about the cigarette butt, which would be her reason for changing her mind.

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/2452/umineko2.png

This completly contradicts the red truth. With my theory though, there is no contradiction.

Another suspicious factor is Kyrie's execute TIP. "The stomach isn't a fatal spot."


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Originally Posted by Saerianne View Post
I saw something to do with Sakutaro a few pages back, but that's confusing me. Didn't Ange say something around the lines of, 'Onee-chan and beatrice...' when she saw it? Maybe I misread it? Hrmmm...
Anyway, thank you.
I guess you're reffering to my theory that Sakutarou was never torn by Rosa in the first place?

Spoiler for Episode 4:
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Old 2009-06-11, 05:06   Link #1200
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Remember that the whole deal with Kyrie was STILL Battler's theory. There is still a leeway that Kyrie could convince Rudolf without any clear explanation. Since both know each other and trust each other implicitely, it doesn't contradict the red truth.
That said, Kasumi being able to fool Rudolf might be a bit too much (considering her persona, I'm not even sure if she would be able to be subtle in that kind of things).
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