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Old 2009-04-24, 17:02   Link #3021
Nochgo
iceman
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: CO, USA
Wow, some very big matchs here, like Kotomi vs Hinagiku and Nagisa and Shana. Hope Nagisa can pull off a win, but that doesn't seem too likely...

ARENA 01: Hinamori Amu [Nagi]
ARENA 02: [Chii] Furude Hanyū
ARENA 03: [Ryōgi Shiki] Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 04: Minase Nayuki [Misaka Shiori]
ARENA 05: [Patchouli Knowledge] Vita
ARENA 06: [Louise Vallière] Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 07: Anya Alstreim [Maria]
ARENA 08: Sanzen'in Nagi [Sakagami Tomoyo]
ARENA 09: Asahina Mikuru [Kawashima Ami]
ARENA 10: Kōzuki Kallen [Remilia Scarlet]
ARENA 11: [Furukawa Nagisa] Shana
ARENA 12: [Fujibayashi Kyō] Suiseiseki
ARENA 13: [Alice Carroll] Aisaka Taiga
ARENA 14: [Kinomoto Sakura] Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 15: [Kawasumi Mai] Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 16: Yagami Hayate [Saber]
ARENA 17: [Tsukimiya Ayu] Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 18: Shameimaru Aya [Misaka Mikoto]
ARENA 19: [Furude Rika] Holo
ARENA 20: [C.C.] Izumi Konata
ARENA 21: Shinku [Evangeline McDowell]
ARENA 22: [Ichinose Kotomi] Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 23: [Sunohara Mei] Kurata Sayuri
ARENA 24: Chiba Kirino [Kamio Misuzu]
ARENA 25: Illyasviel von Einzbern [Mizunashi Akari]
ARENA 26: Suzumiya Haruhi [Suigintou]
ARENA 27: [Sawatari Makoto] Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 28: Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu [Kushieda Minori]
ARENA 29: Nagato Yuki [Takamachi Nanoha]
ARENA 30: [Hakurei Reimu] Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 31: [Hiiragi Kagami] Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32: [Fate Testarossa] Hiiragi Tsukasa
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Old 2009-04-24, 18:46   Link #3022
Ahasuerus
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Oakland, CA
Age: 62
Votes for Topaz 6:

ARENA 01: Hinamori Amu [Nagi]
ARENA 02: [Chii] Furude Hanyū
ARENA 03: [Ryōgi Shiki] Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 04: Minase Nayuki [Misaka Shiori]
ARENA 05: Patchouli Knowledge [Vita]
ARENA 06: Louise Vallière [Kawazoe Tamaki]
ARENA 07: Anya Alstreim [Maria]
ARENA 08: [Sanzen'in Nagi] Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 09: [Asahina Mikuru] Kawashima Ami
ARENA 10: Kōzuki Kallen [Remilia Scarlet]
ARENA 11: [Furukawa Nagisa] Shana
ARENA 12: Fujibayashi Kyō [Suiseiseki]
ARENA 13: Alice Carroll [Aisaka Taiga]
ARENA 14: Kinomoto Sakura [Ryūgū Rena]
ARENA 15: [Kawasumi Mai] Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 16: Yagami Hayate [Saber]
ARENA 17: [Tsukimiya Ayu] Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 18: Shameimaru Aya [Misaka Mikoto]
ARENA 19: [Furude Rika] Holo
ARENA 20: C.C. [Izumi Konata]
ARENA 21: [Shinku] Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 22: [Ichinose Kotomi] Katsura Hinagiku
ARENA 23: Sunohara Mei [Kurata Sayuri]
ARENA 24: Chiba Kirino [Kamio Misuzu]
ARENA 25: Illyasviel von Einzbern [Mizunashi Akari]
ARENA 26: [Suzumiya Haruhi] Suigintou
ARENA 27: [Sawatari Makoto] Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 28: Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu [Kushieda Minori]
ARENA 29: Nagato Yuki [Takamachi Nanoha]
ARENA 30: Hakurei Reimu [Ibuki Fūko]
ARENA 31: [Hiiragi Kagami] Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32: Fate Testarossa [Hiiragi Tsukasa]



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Old 2009-04-24, 19:15   Link #3023
Eater of All
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Join Date: Jun 2008
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Omega late Topaz 05 comment: Wow Sayuri.



Spoiler for Votes:


Kotomi vs Hina should be fun to watch, as with Yuki vs Nanoha. If this was still the start of the season, I'd probably say Nagisa has no chance at defeating Shana. But after the win over Kagami, I ain't so sure anymore.
And Tsukasa is virtually dead against Fate.
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Old 2009-04-24, 20:45   Link #3024
chaosprophet
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Brazil
ARENA 01: Hinamori Amu [Nagi]
ARENA 02: Chii [Abstained] Furude Hanyū
ARENA 03: Ryōgi Shiki [Konjiki no Yami]
ARENA 04: [Minase Nayuki] Misaka Shiori
ARENA 05: Patchouli Knowledge [Vita]
ARENA 06: [Louise Vallière] Kawazoe Tamaki
ARENA 07: Anya Alstreim [Maria]
ARENA 08: [Sanzen'in Nagi] Sakagami Tomoyo
ARENA 09: Asahina Mikuru [Kawashima Ami]
ARENA 10: Kōzuki Kallen [Remilia Scarlet]
ARENA 11: Furukawa Nagisa [Shana]
ARENA 12: [Fujibayashi Kyō] Suiseiseki
ARENA 13: Alice Carroll [Aisaka Taiga]
ARENA 14: [Kinomoto Sakura] Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 15: [Kawasumi Mai] Kirisame Marisa
ARENA 16: Yagami Hayate [Saber]
ARENA 17: [Tsukimiya Ayu] Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 18: Shameimaru Aya [Misaka Mikoto]
ARENA 19: Furude Rika [Holo]
ARENA 20: C.C. [Izumi Konata]
ARENA 21: Shinku [Evangeline McDowell]
ARENA 22: Ichinose Kotomi [Katsura Hinagiku]
ARENA 23: [Sunohara Mei] Kurata Sayuri
ARENA 24: [Chiba Kirino] Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 25: [Illyasviel von Einzbern] Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 26: Suzumiya Haruhi [Suigintou]
ARENA 27: [Sawatari Makoto] Katagiri Yūhi
ARENA 28: Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu [Kushieda Minori]
ARENA 29: [Nagato Yuki] Takamachi Nanoha
ARENA 30: Hakurei Reimu [Ibuki Fūko]
ARENA 31: Hiiragi Kagami [Tōsaka Rin]
ARENA 32: [Fate Testarossa] Hiiragi Tsukasa
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Old 2009-04-24, 20:53   Link #3025
Team Rocket Elite
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Prediction and votes:
Spoiler for My predictions for Topaz 6:


Spoiler for Comparison to KholdStare88's predictions:


Spoiler for Votes:
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Old 2009-04-25, 06:39   Link #3026
Kana Futayo
Phoenix...
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Naval Base
ARENA 01: [Hinamori Amu] Nagi
ARENA 02: Chii [Furude Hanyū]
ARENA 03: [Ryōgi Shiki] Konjiki no Yami
ARENA 04: Minase Nayuki [Misaka Shiori]
ARENA 05: [Patchouli Knowledge] Vita
ARENA 06: Louise Vallière [Kawazoe Tamaki]
ARENA 07: Anya Alstreim [Maria]
ARENA 08: Sanzen'in Nagi [Sakagami Tomoyo]
ARENA 09: Asahina Mikuru [Kawashima Ami]
ARENA 10: Kōzuki Kallen [Remilia Scarlet]
ARENA 11: [Furukawa Nagisa] Shana
ARENA 12: [Fujibayashi Kyō] Suiseiseki
ARENA 13: Alice Carroll [Aisaka Taiga]
ARENA 14: Kinomoto Sakura [Ryūgū Rena]
ARENA 15: Kawasumi Mai [Kirisame Marisa]
ARENA 16: Yagami Hayate [Saber]
ARENA 17: [Tsukimiya Ayu] Index Prohibitorum
ARENA 18: Shameimaru Aya [Misaka Mikoto]
ARENA 19: Furude Rika [Holo]
ARENA 20: C.C. [Izumi Konata]
ARENA 21: [Shinku] Evangeline McDowell
ARENA 22: Ichinose Kotomi [Katsura Hinagiku]
ARENA 23: [Sunohara Mei] Kurata Sayuri
ARENA 24: [Chiba Kirino] Kamio Misuzu
ARENA 25: [Illyasviel von Einzbern] Mizunashi Akari
ARENA 26: Suzumiya Haruhi [Suigintou]
ARENA 27: Sawatari Makoto [Katagiri Yūhi]
ARENA 28: Kasuga “Ōsaka” Ayumu [Abstained] Kushieda Minori
ARENA 29: Nagato Yuki [Takamachi Nanoha]
ARENA 30: [Hakurei Reimu] Ibuki Fūko
ARENA 31: Hiiragi Kagami [Abstained] Tōsaka Rin
ARENA 32: [Fate Testarossa] Hiiragi Tsukasa
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Old 2009-04-25, 19:06   Link #3027
cnnydz
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Join Date: Dec 2007
wow, kotomi lost...again
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Old 2009-04-25, 19:07   Link #3028
Noe
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Yay, Fate won. ^_^;
But Tsukasa came so close..I'm scared of the outcome vs. Haruhi now.
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Old 2009-04-25, 19:41   Link #3029
Eater of All
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Outside the Asylum
54.16% - #03 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #21 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS)- NOT expected.

It just occured to me that Fate never seems to give pressure to her opponents. Everyone that she faces always retains their average amount of votes, and never drops in the face of Fate. For example, the Tsukasa who scored ~1290 votes against Illya last match, is still able to garner ~1240 against Fate, who is leagues above Illya.
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Old 2009-04-25, 19:57   Link #3030
Kid Ying
Pon pon pon
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Rio
I always want to vote and always forget the day...

I wasn't expecting Kallen to win, since she lost all the previous ones, it was a good surprise.
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Old 2009-04-25, 21:12   Link #3031
Team Rocket Elite
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
To bring my average back down to 93%, I got 4 matches wrong today:

Predicted: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [46.05%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [53.95%]
Actual: Kōzuki Kallen (CG) [50.79%] vs Remilia Scarlet (TMK) [49.21%]
Difference: 4.74

Predicted: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [48.19%] vs Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) [51.81%]
Actual: Kinomoto Sakura (CCS) [50.43%] vs Ryūgū Rena (HNKN) [49.57%]
Diference: 2.24

Predicted: C.C. (CG) [50.76%] vs Izumi Konata (LS) [49.24%]
Actual: C.C. (CG) [49.59%] vs Izumi Konata (LS) [50.41%]
Difference: 1.17

Predicted: Sawatari Makoto (KN) [50.1%] vs Katagiri Yūhi (AISS) [49.9%]
Actual: Sawatari Makoto (KN) [45.11%] vs Katagiri Yūhi (AISS) [54.89%]
Difference: 4.99

I guess Remilia's win against Shiki was a one time thing. Kallen is a fair bit weaker but was just strong enough to defeat Remilia.

Sakura vs Rena was a close match as expected but the winner was not who I expected. Match could have gone either way.

Speaking of matches that could have gone either way, Konata narrowly beats C.C.. It was a really close match as expected but the coin flip just didn't go my way. Or rather it did go my way since I wanted Konata to win. =D

I should really stop trusting Makoto to win matches. I thought she would be able to edge out a win but I guess it just did happen.


My predictions were a decent 2.4 off on average. Only 3 predictions off my more than 5 this time as well:

Predicted: Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [58.78%] vs Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) [41.22%]
Actual: Tsukimiya Ayu (KN) [51.69%] vs Index Prohibitorum (TAMI) [48.31%]
Difference: 7.08

Predicted: Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [63.79%] vs Suiseiseki (RM) [36.21%]
Actual: Fujibayashi Kyō (CL) [57.61%] vs Suiseiseki (RM) [42.39%]
Difference: 6.18

Predicted: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [35.63%] vs Saber (FSN) [64.37%]
Actual: Yagami Hayate (MSLN) [40.98%] vs Saber (FSN) [59.02%]
Difference: 5.34

Bad day for Ayu this time. Kanon is steadly on the decline but this was a pretty sharp drop. It may just be a one time thing so I'm going to withhold judgement until the next match.

Clannad has been steadly declining since the anime ended. Well actually, Kyou for the most part was the exception to the decline. I guess it is finally starting to catch up with her. This match may have cost her her position as #1 in my stats.

After nothing but increases since the start of Topaz, Saber looks unimpressive for once. After her last few matches I was starting to throw around the idea that she might make a run for the Topaz necklace. Showing weakness one match before she has to face Kyou is not what Saber needs if she wants to do that. She still has a shot, though.


31% of my predictions were within 1% of the actual result. My best was:

Predicted: Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [42.99%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [57.01%]
Actual: Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [43.05%] vs Sakagami Tomoyo (CL) [56.95%]
Difference: 0.06



Predicted: Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [44.87%] vs Shana (SnS) [55.13%]
Actual: Furukawa Nagisa (CL) [40%] vs Shana (SnS) [60%]
Difference: 4.87

Shana is looking good. I just wished it wasn't at the expense of a Clannad character.


My 28 > KS's 26
My 2.4 > KS's 2.95

I guess it's my win again this time. I correctly predicted Nagi, Hinagiku and Mei's win(although KS mentioned he personally felt Mei would win). KS beat me on Yuuhi's win. We both missed Kallen, Sakura and Konata's win.
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Old 2009-04-25, 22:24   Link #3032
Demi.
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Florida
Age: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eater of All View Post
54.16% - #03 Fate Testarossa (MSLN) > #21 Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS)- NOT expected.

It just occured to me that Fate never seems to give pressure to her opponents. Everyone that she faces always retains their average amount of votes, and never drops in the face of Fate. For example, the Tsukasa who scored ~1290 votes against Illya last match, is still able to garner ~1240 against Fate, who is leagues above Illya.
It's all part of not being overrated. Aka, It's Fate's own fanbase voting for her, not voters who don't know the other character. It's mainly why Haruhi garners so many votes(and why Tsukasa garners so many votes vs Fate - LS popularity >> MSLN popularity) - Who do you vote for, some one you kind of like, or some one you don't even know? And everyone knows Haruhi, thus she steals the votes of just about every voter that doesn't know the other character, which leads to a lopsided rape in a arena that has over 100 more voters than any other.

tl;dr - Only popular series characters are enabled the right to rape. Everyone else, consistent winning is the best they can hope for.
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Last edited by Demi.; 2009-04-25 at 22:35.
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Old 2009-04-25, 23:01   Link #3033
Nochgo
iceman
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: CO, USA
Hmm.. I didn't think Shana vs Nagisa would've been such a blow out. I guess After Story effect is about good as gone now.
And seeing Fate doing not so well against Tsukasa, I'm really worried about her match with Haruhi in round 9... And having the lowest vote differential among undefeated Topaz candidates...

lol I just realized that there is at least one battle between top tier candidates on the last round of each tiara contest, top tier meaning Fate, Hinagiku, Haruhi, Yuki, Tomoyo, Shana, Kyo and Kagami. I guess they intentionally set the brackets like that, though I don't know how they decided on those 8...
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Old 2009-04-26, 13:45   Link #3034
Eater of All
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Outside the Asylum
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demi. View Post
It's all part of not being overrated. Aka, It's Fate's own fanbase voting for her, not voters who don't know the other character. It's mainly why Haruhi garners so many votes(and why Tsukasa garners so many votes vs Fate - LS popularity >> MSLN popularity) - Who do you vote for, some one you kind of like, or some one you don't even know? And everyone knows Haruhi, thus she steals the votes of just about every voter that doesn't know the other character, which leads to a lopsided rape in a arena that has over 100 more voters than any other.

tl;dr - Only popular series characters are enabled the right to rape. Everyone else, consistent winning is the best they can hope for.
Iron vote base, eh. Although consistent, iron votes are directly limited by the size of the fanbase itself. So against higher-tiered contestents, Fate has to rely upon squeezing her fanbase for every last drop of voters, and hope for the best against the near full-force of casual and regular votes. As the popularity of ISML increases, the ratio of iron votes to normal votes decreases, which translates to Fate decreasing in strength. So if ISML ever gathers a stable 10000 votes per round....

Okay, I'm beginning to see your pessimism.
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Old 2009-04-26, 16:58   Link #3035
Demi.
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Florida
Age: 27
That is when I pray Japan can save me from the torment, or I'll just call it quits. Not voting in a contest where only Kyoani and Shana have a legitimate chance of making top 16. Mainstream voters ftl.
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Old 2009-04-26, 17:55   Link #3036
orangejuicetang
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Age: 23
Wow, it's been such a while since I've visited the international saimoe league. Not since international saimoe league last year in fact. This sure does move fast. Does anyone want to give me a quick recap of isml 2009 so far?
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Old 2009-04-26, 18:19   Link #3037
Demi.
Ass connoisseur
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Florida
Age: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by orangejuicetang View Post
Wow, it's been such a while since I've visited the international saimoe league. Not since international saimoe league last year in fact. This sure does move fast. Does anyone want to give me a quick recap of isml 2009 so far?
I could give you a recap, but I think this will explain more than I could tell:
http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/statistics/
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Old 2009-04-26, 18:38   Link #3038
orangejuicetang
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Age: 23
hmm. So it seems that the top contenders from last year are still at the top so far for this year? No new challengers for tomoyo, kyou, haruhi, yuki, shana, fate, ect?
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Old 2009-04-26, 18:47   Link #3039
Demi.
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Florida
Age: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by orangejuicetang View Post
hmm. So it seems that the top contenders from last year are still at the top so far for this year? No new challengers for tomoyo, kyou, haruhi, yuki, shana, fate, ect?
Taiga is the only new contender that's even remotely a match to the top old contenders, and even she loses when matched vs. them. About the only difference, is Haruhi characters are even more overpowered this year, than last. And by overpowered, I mean, Mikuru wipes the floor with Higurashi, and Haruhi wipes the floor with everyone.

Hinagiku is a force to be reckoned with, but I imagine her new series will only take her so far, and certainly not to the level of competing with Haruhi.

Oh, and Saber, though can't say I'm too happy about it...But she seems to have the power to atleast be on par with Clannad.
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Last edited by Demi.; 2009-04-26 at 19:03.
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Old 2009-04-26, 19:51   Link #3040
orangejuicetang
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Age: 23
Saber? What's with her sudden boost in popularity? Did some additional fs/n material come out or something?
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