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Old 2009-01-11, 04:17   Link #261
shelter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
the hamas and other islamic jihad groups think that this can be settled by force
and this is still a rather strong notion in the arab and muslim world today (sadly)
the idea of "Resistance" to israel's very existance is deeply rooted and almost every PLO group has imbraced it at one point or another...
No offense. But these are sweeping statements. Protests & condemnations in several Muslim states are not reflective of the option of "force" as resistance. I do believe that most are more upset about the civilian deaths in the Gaza offensive.

A handful of such protests do get carried away about "resistance to Israel's existence", but the same protests are also overly preoccupied with less relevant subjects such as the U.S hegemony in the Middle East (like in Malaysia) & local politics (like in Indonesia) - and shouldn't be taken seriously as reflective of wider opinion.
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Old 2009-01-11, 04:31   Link #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
and they are perfectly willing to "buy" these points with the blood of palestinian children
Not only the children, Palestinian adults became victims of Hamas as well.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...88-2703,00.htm
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Old 2009-01-11, 04:33   Link #263
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I don't have a lot of free time, but I took what little I have to wade through 13 pages of posts not because I'm masochistic, but because I have professional interests in staying in touch with opinions on the ground.

And, unfortunately, the opinions play out mostly as I expected, with heaps of condemnation for Israeli actions without sufficient blame on Hamas' role in this latest conflict. Thankfully, a few posters — especially Ledgem — have helped to shed more light on a complicated relationship fraught with many political and military limitations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
Neither side is serious about a ceasefire, even though it'd be in both of their interests. They both seem to have it in their head that they can win this militarily, dispite decades of evidence that says otherwise.
Judging from your previous posts, I get the feeling that you believe that peace would automatically result as soon as both sides put down their weapons.

Unfortunately, while that is indeed the first step towards any diplomatic resolution, it is far from being the final step. As Ledgem has repeatedly pointed out, Hamas' intention is clear: it wishes to destroy the state of Israel. So long as that remains its stated objective, there is no room for peace in the Levant.

I'm not saying, however, that Israel is absolved from guilt. It is as much to blame for prolonging the ill-will in the region through its sometimes hard-headed policies towards Palestinians. And I'd agree that perhaps the Israelis should have learnt long ago that winning hearts and minds through diplomatic and economic means would pay more dividends in the long run, but in the short run, they still have to do something about Hamas' rocket attacks. Hence the current ground-and-air operations in the Gaza Strip.

However, I take the comments regarding the appropriateness of Israel's counterattacks to heart. It seems to me that many posters do agree, however begrudgingly, that Israel has to respond to Hamas' provocations somehow. The question seems to be whether its currently massive operation will achieve its intended aim of destroying Hamas' military capability and preventing them from harming Israelis in the future.

So, I wonder, would low-intensity raids into the Gaza Strip by special forces have been more "acceptable"? Bear in mind that the IDF is quite capable of carrying out such raids, but Mossad's ability to pinpoint targets for assassination has apparently been in decline for several years. The IDF's failures against the Lebanon in 2006 have been blamed, to some extent, on its relative lack of accurate intelligence on Hizbollah's locations in the country.

Targeted assassinations would achieve Israel's overall aim of intimidating the militant elements of Hamas, while (hopefully) avoiding the mass civilian casaulties we are seeing now.

What? Why am I supporting a bloody option instead of suggesting strictly diplomatic talks instead? Because I'm well-aware of how realpolitik works. No one is willing to negotiate unless it's from a position of strength. The world's sympathy may be on the side of innocent Palestinian civilians, but at the same time, most countries see a two-state solution as the only viable hope for long-term peace in the Levant.

And since the Hamas doesn't acknowledge that to be a feasible solution, they need to be taken out of the equation somehow.
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Old 2009-01-11, 04:38   Link #264
bladeofdarkness
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shelter View Post
No offense. But these are sweeping statements. Protests & condemnations in several Muslim states are not reflective of the option of "force" as resistance. I do believe that most are more upset about the civilian deaths in the Gaza offensive.

A handful of such protests do get carried away about "resistance to Israel's existence", but the same protests are also overly preoccupied with less relevant subjects such as the U.S hegemony in the Middle East (like in Malaysia) & local politics (like in Indonesia) - and shouldn't be taken seriously as reflective of wider opinion.

the destraction of the state of israel is the stated policey of both hamas, islamic jihad and the PFLP (its in the hamas charter)
and they have yet to even excpet the fact that israel exists (they continue to refer to it as "the zionsit entity")

and until recently (30 something years ago) this was the stated policey of the arab world as a whole (as in , the national policey of the arab states)
these arent "sweeping statements"
its the history of the mid east
before the israel-Egypt peace accords in 1979 there wasnt a single arab state that recognized israel's right to exist
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Old 2009-01-11, 04:42   Link #265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356 View Post
Neither side is serious about a ceasefire, even though it'd be in both of their interests. They both seem to have it in their head that they can win this militarily, dispite decades of evidence that says otherwise.
Israel managed to disable most of the neighbouring air force and expanded their territory while numerically outnumbered during the 6 day war. So no, there are many things that can be achieved with the use of force.

The current conflict though is going to leave a very deep scar in the Middle East region with Israel continue to enforce it's rigid eye for an eye revenge ops while Hamas resort to stationing their force and cache among civilian structure to provoke retaliation so they can drum up international condemnation against Israel.

As far as i see it, Hamas would not win this "war". The UN have been losing support and authority over the years to the point where their resolution meant little to others nowdays and the Arab nation have not done more than brandishing their saber at Israel and promise aids to those in Gaza. Any "real" attempt to stop Israel via force would not only result in immediate revenge op but also economic setback in a region that's already affected by global economic fallout and dropping oil prices.

The lack of support from Eygpt is a good indicator of the neighbouring nations support of Hamas. I believe Jordan, Syria, Lebanon would only be involved in this event only so there would not be any internal unrest their muslim populace against their own government.
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Old 2009-01-11, 05:34   Link #266
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
and until recently (30 something years ago) this was the stated policey of the arab world as a whole (as in , the national policey of the arab states)
these arent "sweeping statements"
its the history of the mid east
before the israel-Egypt peace accords in 1979 there wasnt a single arab state that recognized israel's right to exist
Agreed with you on every part on this extract.

But we are more recent than "until recently". I believe Muslims don't discuss or question Israel's "right to exist" - they question Israel's "right to exercise disproportionate military force". Times change. Attitudes change. Perspectives change. It would be good to see such change in Israel too: its only opponents in this scenario are stubborn politicians from Gaza who believe that lobbing rockets into Sderot & Ashkelon somehow is legitimate. And not the civilians within the camps, or the entire Muslim world.
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Old 2009-01-11, 06:09   Link #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
However, I take the comments regarding the appropriateness of Israel's counterattacks to heart. It seems to me that many posters do agree, however begrudgingly, that Israel has to respond to Hamas' provocations somehow. The question seems to be whether its currently massive operation will achieve its intended aim of destroying Hamas' military capability and preventing them from harming Israelis in the future.

So, I wonder, would low-intensity raids into the Gaza Strip by special forces have been more "acceptable"? Bear in mind that the IDF is quite capable of carrying out such raids, but Mossad's ability to pinpoint targets for assassination has apparently been in decline for several years. The IDF's failures against the Lebanon in 2006 have been blamed, to some extent, on its relative lack of accurate intelligence on Hizbollah's locations in the country.

Targeted assassinations would achieve Israel's overall aim of intimidating the militant elements of Hamas, while (hopefully) avoiding the mass civilian casaulties we are seeing now.
To me, that'd certainly be harder to condemn as excessive.
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Old 2009-01-11, 06:34   Link #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anh_Minh View Post
To me, that'd certainly be harder to condemn as excessive.
they are always doing stuff like that (except for the 6 month cease-fire)
its not enough
and since the "cease-fire" wasnt enough either then the next logical step is a show of force
make it clear that israel wont tolerate attacks without massive retaliation against the attackers
and its working so far (at the start there were 60 rockets a day, since the ground op started its down to 30 and dropping)
the hope in general is that either the hamas activists stop firing on their own (out of either fear or exastion) or that the people in gaza will deal with it themselves next time (as in "try to fire that rocket from my street, and we'll kill you")

by the time this is over and israeli forces are once again out of the strip (they have no intention to stay for long) the rules of the game would have been changed
it may be excessive now
buts its minor compared to what it would be like in 5 years when the hamas gets rockets that can reach tel aviv
you have to draw the line somewhere in order to stop it altogether
why not here

@shelter
arab school text books still include maps that refer to the area of the state of israel as "palestine"
and arab media is openly broadcusting anti-israeli and anti-semetic propoganda (you should have seen the al-shatad tv show a few years back)
it is not a thing of the past and not nearly as rare as you think

the leaders of hamas (the "stubborn politicians from Gaza") are not sitting in gaza at all
they are in beirut in lebanon
and they are the ones who are telling the millitery wing to keep firing despite the damage that gaza is taking
the IDF is attacking field leaders and activists that are in gaza (the ones who are doing the actual fighting)
but the leadership in beirut has its own agenda and will keep on supporting the "Resistance" doctorine no matter what
its not possible to just talk to them unless they feel like they are at a real risk of losing control of the gaza strip

and israel is not targeting the civilians within the camps
they stop the fighting every day from 13-16 to allow international care and aid to go into the streets and be given to the civilians
and the air force almost always informs people where it will strike so they can get away safely (its not nice, but at least they wont die)
the international law says it rather clearly "a civilians target used for warfare is no longer a civilians target"
but since the hamas is using them as shields people are bound to get hurt who are not involved
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Old 2009-01-11, 06:51   Link #269
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
they are always doing stuff like that (except for the 6 month cease-fire)
its not enough
and since the "cease-fire" wasnt enough either then the next logical step is a show of force
make it clear that israel wont tolerate attacks without massive retaliation against the attackers
and its working so far (at the start there were 60 rockets a day, since the ground op started its down to 30 and dropping)
I'm not sure how looking bad on international media, and on Al-Jazeerah especially, means Israel's strategy is "working so far". If nothing else, Israel is stiffening the Palestinian resolve for revenge.

Israel could perhaps stop the rockets falling, for now, but if the hatred remains, there'll be more bombs in the future, Hamas-sponsored or not.
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:04   Link #270
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its working in the sense that the hamas is able to fire less and less rockets
its working in the millitery sense of the word

the idea is that after israel pulls out of the strip the rules of the game will have changed
and the idea of firing any rockets at israel is un-thinkable becouse the price would be too high
thats what the goal of the millitery op is
matters of politics are something else entirely
the army is the stick
the carrot comes from other factors (political)
and it comes after the rockets stop
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:09   Link #271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
I'm not sure how looking bad on international media, and on Al-Jazeerah especially, means Israel's strategy is "working so far". If nothing else, Israel is stiffening the Palestinian resolve for revenge.

Israel could perhaps stop the rockets falling, for now, but if the hatred remains, there'll be more bombs in the future, Hamas-sponsored or not.
Israel will never look good on Al-Jazeerah. At earlier point of time, Palestinian would probably still have the energy for revenge but right now, I feel they are more desperate as Israel continue to restrict supplies and aids into the area.

Makes me wonder how long before kids start strapping bombs onto themselves again for suicide bombing attacks.
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:16   Link #272
Anh_Minh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
its working in the sense that the hamas is able to fire less and less rockets
its working in the millitery sense of the word
More like in the very short term sense of the word. Rocket launching may be dropping, but the number of potential recruits for Hamas is increasing.

Quote:
the idea is that after israel pulls out of the strip the rules of the game will have changed
and the idea of firing any rockets at israel is un-thinkable becouse the price would be too high
Make them hate you enough, and the price is never going to be too high. What's going to be unthinkable will be, to them, support Israel in any way, shape, or form. Such as suggesting that maybe firing rockets is a bad idea.
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:19   Link #273
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they have rockets now
they dont need suicide bombings (they do try nevertheless, they just cant pull it off)

and if they are really desprete
they should just give up on fighting altogether
the biggest irony is that they are getting farther and farther away from any chance at independence by fighting
if they stopped firing completely the israeli's would do the same
and both sides would be able to go back to talking

@Anh_Minh
they would never support israel no matter what
ever
this is the middle east
what they need to understand is that there is nothing they can actually do about it and that it would always be there whether they like it or not
and thats all is needed really for peace in the mid east (hate is fine so long as there is also fear)
sad but true

and to hear reports from inside the strip is to question your point about hamas potential recruits
they built themselves up as "an army against israel"
and not only are they proving themselves as pathetic (all they do is run mostly, and fire from other people's homes)
the ones they are hurting the most litteraly are the people in gaza
and the people are calling them out on it
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:21   Link #274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
its working in the sense that the hamas is able to fire less and less rockets
its working in the millitery sense of the word...
and the idea of firing any rockets at israel is un-thinkable becouse the price would be too high
thats what the goal of the millitery op is
The same message could still have been delivered to Hamas if Israel used smaller scale raids to assassinate the cell leaders without causing so much collateral damage. The IDF apparently knows where the Hamas is based, for it to claim to be doing its best to avoid civilian deaths with precision targetting. That being the case, wouldn't covert operations have been a better tool?

In the end, my point is simple. I'm not denying Israel's right to defend its citizens, but I do wonder if the scale of the response is proportionate. Knowing as we all do that Hamas is deliberately taunting Israel to attack its positions within civilian areas, the current Israeli counterattack is exactly what it wanted. It allows Hamas to claim a moral victory even if its infrastructure is totally destroyed — for now.
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:32   Link #275
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israel has for a long time operated in such a way
it wasnt enough
and it wouldnt solve the number one problem with hamas right now
it thinks its strong and proud and it portrays itself as such
and it allows itself to act in the way that it did for all this time becouse it think this (they say israel is afraid to act against it)
taking out leaders may hurt their tactical abilites
but it doesnt hammer home the point that needs hammering
its not strong and it has NOTHING to be proud of
this needs to be shown
and it can only be shown by walking right up to their "strong and proud millitery wing" and making them run for their lives
and thats the point of the millitery op
basiclly showing them that they are better off talking peacefully becouse the other way is one in which they have no hope of surviving
its cold hearted but its also needed
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:47   Link #276
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Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness View Post
they have rockets now
they dont need suicide bombings (they do try nevertheless, they just cant pull it off)

and if they are really desprete
they should just give up on fighting altogether
the biggest irony is that they are getting farther and farther away from any chance at independence by fighting
There's always the religious pride that kept em from surrendering, some folks rather die for the glory of god than to live in shame of defeat. But I believe most suicide bomber does not do it for religion or victory but more as an escape from their situation.

Even in less volatile countries like msia, views such as these aren't that rare.

Also, I don't believe Hamas will stop it's attacks on Israel even after a truce. It hasn't stop it's people from it in the past and it certainly will not be able to stop it in the future with many of their leaders dead.

If Israel kept going, it will be gone though it's remaining member would most likely be assimilated into other anti-israel militant group.
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:48   Link #277
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness
it thinks its strong and proud and it portrays itself as such
and it allows itself to act in the way that it did for all this time becouse it think this (they say israel is afraid to act against it)
taking out leaders may hurt their tactical abilites
but it doesnt hammer home the point that needs hammering
its not strong and it has NOTHING to be proud of
In other words, shock and awe.

Which also makes me wonder about the extent to which public opinion in Israel is driving the current offensive. The idea that "Israel is afraid to act" stems from the IDF's failed ground operation in Lebanon back in 2006. Put into this context, it would appear that the attack on the Gaza Strip is as much for domestic consumption (proof that the IDF has recovered from its 2006 setback) as it is a show of Israeli might.
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Old 2009-01-11, 07:55   Link #278
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its more likely aimed at the palestinian public in that regard
its basiclly a messege of "either we both sit down and talk, or we both fire away"
who do you think would win

and lebanon has nothing to do with this attack (its been 7 years coming)
if anything the hamas was watching that war and getting the wrong idea
becouse they seem to have copied the hizballa's moves to a T (rocket attacks and tunnals all over the strip)
the hizballa got the messege (which is why its keeping down)
the hamas got the WRONG messege (as in "this is the way to go")

@Jazzrat
the messege is "its better for you to stop fighting and just start talking peacefully"
if some idiots really do want their guns to be taken from their cold dead hands
the IDF would be happy to do so
pride is a dangerus thing
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Old 2009-01-11, 08:01   Link #279
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Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf View Post
In other words, shock and awe.

Which also makes me wonder about the extent to which public opinion in Israel is driving the current offensive. The idea that "Israel is afraid to act" stems from the IDF's failed ground operation in Lebanon back in 2006. Put into this context, it would appear that the attack on the Gaza Strip is as much for domestic consumption (proof that the IDF has recovered from its 2006 setback) as it is a show of Israeli might.
I wouldnt be surprised if Israel took chance of trying to end the situation while the arab countries are weak as the oil prices falls and before the pro-peace Obama administration takes over from the more pro-war Bush administration.

Not to mention the upcoming election.
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Old 2009-01-11, 08:09   Link #280
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazzrat View Post
I wouldnt be surprised if Israel took chance of trying to end the situation while the arab countries are weak as the oil prices falls and before the pro-peace Obama administration takes over from the more pro-war Bush administration.

Not to mention the upcoming election.
why would they pull this off in winter then ?
it works against the IDF air forces
the arab countries arent and wouldnt do much becouse none of them tolarete the hamas anymore then the israeli's do
the reason they "chose" this time is a 60 rocket attack a few weeks ago
and to expend the war into its third stage (which is the big push into the cities proper) would last for weeks on end
obama would be taking office in mid battle

P.S
as i am writing this post there is a one sided cease-fire from the IDF to let humaniterien aid enter the strip
its going to last for about another hour or so
and five minutes ago an other rocket attack was fired against shderot
the hamas has no problems violating a cease-fire aimed at keeping its people from starving to death
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