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Old 2013-03-14, 10:22   Link #341
Sumeragi
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And like ROK would accept that. It's interesting how people keep ignoring ROK whenever "PRC should rule DPRK" discussions comes up.
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Old 2013-03-14, 11:00   Link #342
ArchmageXin
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
And like ROK would accept that. It's interesting how people keep ignoring ROK whenever "PRC should rule DPRK" discussions comes up.
Like China really WANT a North Korea. The cost of modernization is going to be HELL to absorb a nation like that.

If America agree to pull the troops/Not to get SK to be part of the "we want to lock down China" club, China is all for a United Korea under ROK.

Does ROK even have the ability to suddenly double in size? Maybe, but likely not, most likely a economic collapse as North would need massive amount of education/financial support.
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Old 2013-03-14, 11:05   Link #343
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
And like ROK would accept that. It's interesting how people keep ignoring ROK whenever "PRC should rule DPRK" discussions comes up.
Agreed. Even though I think politically the North Koreans aren't ready to accept unification anytime soon, North Korea is still a Korean nation. And having it being openly ruled by China is something I don't think they'd find acceptable. North Korea's continuing existence hinges on the fact that it's independent, and between two stronger powers that don't want to see the other people take control of it. China doesn't want to share a land border with a US friendly nation that has a strong land based army. And South Korea doesn't want to see a Korean nation become an open puppet to China.

China and South Korea nominally aren't enemies with eachother, but a North Korean collapse could potentially rock the boat in ways that neither party is comfortable with.
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Old 2013-03-14, 11:26   Link #344
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Like China really WANT a North Korea. The cost of modernization is going to be HELL to absorb a nation like that.
Who said PRC would annex DPRK? We've been talking about ruling by proxy (aka puppet state).


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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
If America agree to pull the troops/Not to get SK to be part of the "we want to lock down China" club, China is all for a United Korea under ROK.
You mean Sinosphere.


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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Does ROK even have the ability to suddenly double in size? Maybe, but likely not, most likely a economic collapse as North would need massive amount of education/financial support.
ROK already has plans which includes maintaining former DPRK under a separate administration (headed by citizens of former DPRK) instead of the sudden reunification scenario of the Germans.
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Old 2013-03-14, 11:39   Link #345
ArchmageXin
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You mean Sinosphere.
So international politics = What is not hostile to China = Must be enemies of the United States and the so called "Free world?"?

Some logic you got here.


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Who said PRC would annex DPRK? We've been talking about ruling by proxy (aka puppet state).
Wait, which country has China "ruled by proxy?" since 1949?


Quote:
ROK already has plans which includes maintaining former DPRK under a separate administration (headed by citizens of former DPRK) instead of the sudden reunification scenario of the Germans.
And what make you think it will work? North Korea's collapse isn't going to be gentle you know? The whole thing is going to be a mess and you can't avoid it.
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Old 2013-03-14, 12:14   Link #346
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
So international politics = What is not hostile to China = Must be enemies of the United States and the so called "Free world?"?

Some logic you got here.
No, just following how PRC does its diplomacy with ROK, including calling the Korean Maritime Police "barbaric" for using lethal force to stop Chinese illegal fishers from killing police officers.


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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Wait, which country has China "ruled by proxy?" since 1949?
If you've been following the discussion, we have people thinking PRC should rule DPRK by proxy (example: Vallen Chaos Valiant).


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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
And what make you think it will work? North Korea's collapse isn't going to be gentle you know? The whole thing is going to be a mess and you can't avoid it.
Yes, but you think it'll be easy crossing the DMZ in the first place?
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:18   Link #347
ArchmageXin
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Yes, but you think it'll be easy crossing the DMZ in the first place?
What can SK do? Machine gun down starving NK people as they try to cross? It is NK who keep its people in. Once that stops, all hell break lose.


Quote:
If you've been following the discussion, we have people thinking PRC should rule DPRK by proxy (example: Vallen Chaos Valiant).
His statement can also be interpreted as a direct annexation.

But my answer to you was asking you was where did China ever "proxy ruled"?

Quote:
No, just following how PRC does its diplomacy with ROK, including calling the Korean Maritime Police "barbaric" for using lethal force to stop Chinese illegal fishers from killing police officers.
Diplomatic protests happen all the time when one of your citizens dies in another country. It is not like China started any hostile actions beyond that.

Using this argument, should we assume Australia is trying to create an Austrian "sphere" because it protested Singapore's execution of a drug dealer?
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:30   Link #348
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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
What can SK do? Machine gun down starving NK people as they try to cross? It is NK who keep its people in. Once that stops, all hell break lose.
*Rolls eyes*

I figured you might have thought of mines.


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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
His statement can also be interpreted as a direct annexation.

But my answer to you was asking you was where did China ever "proxy ruled"?
And what relevance does that question have? Of course, I will answer: Uyghurstan and Tibet.


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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
Diplomatic protests happen all the time when one of your citizens dies in another country. It is not like China started any hostile actions beyond that.

Using this argument, should we assume Australia is trying to create an Austrian "sphere" because it protested Singapore's execution of a drug dealer?
When a country treats others as if they're owing something to it, we have a problem. That has always been PRC's position to its eastern neighbors, like it or not.
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:37   Link #349
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
*Rolls eyes*

I figured you might have thought of mines.
SK is going to maintain those mines? Unless SK soldiers are going to shoot people form removing those mines, the mines will not be a problem.
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:41   Link #350
Sumeragi
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SK is going to maintain those mines? Unless SK soldiers are going to shoot people form removing those mines, the mines will not be a problem.
You have any idea of just how densely mined the area is? It'll take decades to clear it short of using nuclear weapons, and even then it'll be hard enough to make it safe. It isn't your normal mine field.
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:43   Link #351
ArchmageXin
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*Rolls eyes*

I figured you might have thought of mines.
It wouldn't be any use. There are people who cross the DMZ trying to defect all the time, and some succeed. Especially if now ex-NK troops are helping them out. Things like roving patrols, sniper nests, machine gun crews, ALL GONE.

Mines are only for or delay action, it won't stop a refugee wave.


Quote:
And what relevance does that question have? Of course, I will answer: Uyghurstan and Tibet.
They are no more proxy ruled than Hawaii, thank you very much.

Quote:
When a country treats others as if they're owing something to it, we have a problem. That has always been PRC's position to its eastern neighbors, like it or not.
Yea, I mean, we got PLA divisions in landing in Philippines, terrorists cells sponsoring revolts in Japan, and "regime change" in South Korea.

I admit it, we did it all. It is all a big chinese imperialist conspiracy.

The next thing you know we are going to bomb a Chinese restaurant in Tokyo and use the excuse to annex entire Japan. Oh wait, that sounds familiar for some reason. Where have I heard of that before...
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:44   Link #352
ArchmageXin
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
You have any idea of just how densely mined the area is? It'll take decades to clear it short of using nuclear weapons, and even then it'll be hard enough to make it safe. It isn't your normal mine field.
That is why dozens of North Korean troops were able to cross the DMZ right? Include dozens of defectees over the years. There couldn't be a safe route like a....a tunnel under it right?
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Old 2013-03-14, 13:57   Link #353
Sumeragi
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Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
It wouldn't be any use. There are people who cross the DMZ trying to defect all the time, and some succeed. Especially if now ex-NK troops are helping them out. Things like roving patrols, sniper nests, machine gun crews, ALL GONE.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchmageXin View Post
That is why dozens of North Korean troops were able to cross the DMZ right? Include dozens of defectees over the years. There couldn't be a safe route like a....a tunnel under it right?
Don't make me laugh, there has been no deflections through the DMZ short of the few guards deflecting through the few safe paths (through which only one or two people can move at a time, and that's only if you lived years), and there were no "dozens".

Maybe you need to actually educate yourself before saying things.
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Old 2013-03-14, 14:09   Link #354
ArchmageXin
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Originally Posted by Sumeragi View Post
Don't make me laugh, there has been no deflections through the DMZ short of the few guards deflecting through the few safe paths (through which only one or two people can move at a time, and that's only if you lived years), and there were no "dozens".

Maybe you need to actually educate yourself before saying things.
Or maybe you should do some reading as well

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaesong_Industrial_Region

We have an Industrial ZONE which leads directly to Seoul and allow North Koreans to work. And I don't think those thousands of workers FLEW or Teleport in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Demilitarized_Zone

There are at least 4 well lit, well constructed tunnel through the DMV over the years.

Plus highways, Plus railroads. The so-called mine fields isn't going to stop ANYONE who have a brain.
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Old 2013-03-14, 19:59   Link #355
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Wouldn't it be much more effective if, in the hypothetical "Fall of the North," China and ROK cooperate to establish refugee camps immediately inside Best Kor-, North Korean borders as a stopgap measure? The refugee floods flow in, there's your food and temporary shelter and you've just plugged the opened highways and slowed the horde. I'm sure in such an event, the world would be very happy to flood the place with food, medicines, and whatever they have around to make the decades of African crisis relief operations look like someone's just throwing out leftovers. And unlike in Africa there isn't even a real economy to crash by good intentions gone wrong.

Nobody wants a destabilized East Asia -- the world's busiest economic region -- to gets even more destabilized. At any cost.

Of course, the heavy lifting of building a sustainable economic infrastructure would be left to someone who actually gets to rule the place, whether a pro-Chinese puppet regime or the ROK or some special arrangement (though the most legitimate "successor" by far is naturally the ROK). The World Bank will no doubt kindly accommodate with the necessary loans (and precious, precious interest, because the World Bank doesn't actually like you).

But the North's chances of falling are anyone's guess. They could have fallen yesterday. They should have fallen decades ago. They may easily last the decade. They better not last two, or yet another generation of humanity will suffer the horrific cruelties of a "joke" regime.
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Old 2013-03-14, 21:11   Link #356
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But the North's chances of falling are anyone's guess. They could have fallen yesterday. They should have fallen decades ago. They may easily last the decade. They better not last two, or yet another generation of humanity will suffer the horrific cruelties of a "joke" regime.
China's support of North korea is the only thing holding the regime up. The more NK piss off the younger gen of Chinese leaders and as more of the older Gen dies. The greater the chance of China coming to a agreement with SK and the US.
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Old 2013-03-14, 21:58   Link #357
ArchmageXin
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Originally Posted by Irenicus View Post
Wouldn't it be much more effective if, in the hypothetical "Fall of the North," China and ROK cooperate to establish refugee camps immediately inside Best Kor-, North Korean borders as a stopgap measure? The refugee floods flow in, there's your food and temporary shelter and you've just plugged the opened highways and slowed the horde. I'm sure in such an event, the world would be very happy to flood the place with food, medicines, and whatever they have around to make the decades of African crisis relief operations look like someone's just throwing out leftovers. And unlike in Africa there isn't even a real economy to crash by good intentions gone wrong.

Nobody wants a destabilized East Asia -- the world's busiest economic region -- to gets even more destabilized. At any cost.

Of course, the heavy lifting of building a sustainable economic infrastructure would be left to someone who actually gets to rule the place, whether a pro-Chinese puppet regime or the ROK or some special arrangement (though the most legitimate "successor" by far is naturally the ROK). The World Bank will no doubt kindly accommodate with the necessary loans (and precious, precious interest, because the World Bank doesn't actually like you).

But the North's chances of falling are anyone's guess. They could have fallen yesterday. They should have fallen decades ago. They may easily last the decade. They better not last two, or yet another generation of humanity will suffer the horrific cruelties of a "joke" regime.
The problem is whoever pick up the tab (China or Korea) would have to endure a serious economic shock. NK probably know this and deliberately not make it easier for anyone to set up a transition.

Also, there is actually a growing class of "New Rich" in North Korea as well, similar to the first comer Chinese who left China when China opened, a lot of them make a lot of money trading in with the Chinese. Logically, is in the world's best interest to see it expand.
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Old 2013-03-14, 22:01   Link #358
JokerD
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Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
China's support of North korea is the only thing holding the regime up. The more NK piss off the younger gen of Chinese leaders and as more of the older Gen dies. The greater the chance of China coming to a agreement with SK and the US.
Actually I think NK is playing up the fact that it is right at the doorstep of China and unless they want an American base or listening post right south of it's border, it'll be in China's best interest to prop up NK.

Of course that depends on whether the US wants to keep bases in the country after the NK threat is gone (or even korea let's US have a base there)
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Old 2013-03-14, 22:13   Link #359
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Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
Actually I think NK is playing up the fact that it is right at the doorstep of China and unless they want an American base or listening post right south of it's border, it'll be in China's best interest to prop up NK.

Of course that depends on whether the US wants to keep bases in the country after the NK threat is gone (or even korea let's US have a base there)
Depend on your definition of "Prop up"

China wants a buffer zone. But it doesn't need a NK leadership that doesn't listen to the only country that is keeping it alive. There is no reason to have the current NK government around for China's benefit.
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Old 2013-03-14, 23:23   Link #360
Ithekro
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Okay, let's say North Korea falls and his administered from Seoul. The UN forces there since the 1950s can finally leave. It is just a matter on if the US forces stay there to keep China (and perhaps Russia) in check. If they move north to the border, or if they pull back to other bases in the Pacific.

It isn't like the US is going to leave China alone in the present political climate.
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