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Old 2013-03-26, 10:18   Link #461
JokerD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
I wonder which way would they flee?

Technically China is their ally, but I can't help but feel the Chinese soldiers are more likely to shoot them on sight than South Koreans.
My guess is north, since that would be away from where the bullets and bombs are flying. Also, China will lose a lot of prestige if they are willing to just kill off people running from a war.

Than again, I'm also thinking of special forces mixed with refugees to infiltrate the south.
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Old 2013-03-26, 10:39   Link #462
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
My guess is north, since that would be away from where the bullets and bombs are flying. Also, China will lose a lot of prestige if they are willing to just kill off people running from a war.

Than again, I'm also thinking of special forces mixed with refugees to infiltrate the south.
China has no trouble sending NK escapees back to their country to certain doom. I don't see how they would have political issues "defending their boarders".
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Old 2013-03-26, 11:56   Link #463
Roger Rambo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JokerD View Post
Than again, I'm also thinking of special forces mixed with refugees to infiltrate the south.
I think the issue of North Korean special forces attacks is probably the biggest long term concern for the South. North Korean artillery positions can only fire so many shots before their positions are ID'ed and taken out by ROK and USA airstrikes. And massive full frontal attacks are going to be pretty damn casualty intensive for the North Koreans. North Korean commando/terror attacks are arguably going to be something trickier to deal with if they manage to get into the country.
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Old 2013-03-26, 12:02   Link #464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
I think the issue of North Korean special forces attacks is probably the biggest long term concern for the South. North Korean artillery positions can only fire so many shots before their positions are ID'ed and taken out by ROK and USA airstrikes. And massive full frontal attacks are going to be pretty damn casualty intensive for the North Koreans. North Korean commando/terror attacks are arguably going to be something trickier to deal with if they manage to get into the country.
the NK Special Forces is only a problem if the war last more then a week. I am pretty after the first shot is fire by NK. SK and US would turn the NK capital into a sea of fire. The place would crawling with predator Drones.
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Old 2013-03-26, 12:04   Link #465
Vallen Chaos Valiant
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
I think the issue of North Korean special forces attacks is probably the biggest long term concern for the South. North Korean artillery positions can only fire so many shots before their positions are ID'ed and taken out by ROK and USA airstrikes. And massive full frontal attacks are going to be pretty damn casualty intensive for the North Koreans. North Korean commando/terror attacks are arguably going to be something trickier to deal with if they manage to get into the country.
China probably would NOT approve of the Koreas turning into Afghanistan. If anything they would force Kim to end the war in any way they can. terrorism at their doorstep is BAD for business.

Fundamentally Kim would have to be kept alive by China if they want someone to symbolically stop the conflict. Someone who might not be as powerful as he wanted to be, but is still important enough to influience the country. If Kim dies, it might cause chaos that's out of China's hands.
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Old 2013-03-26, 12:16   Link #466
MeoTwister5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
China probably would NOT approve of the Koreas turning into Afghanistan. If anything they would force Kim to end the war in any way they can. terrorism at their doorstep is BAD for business.

Fundamentally Kim would have to be kept alive by China if they want someone to symbolically stop the conflict. Someone who might not be as powerful as he wanted to be, but is still important enough to influience the country. If Kim dies, it might cause chaos that's out of China's hands.
Sad but probably true. The cult of personality surrounding the family is so goddamned huge.
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Old 2013-03-26, 12:23   Link #467
Xefi
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more threats from North Korea (if not posted already):
Quote:
Pyongyang warned that U.S. facilities would be "reduced to ashes and flames the moment the first attack is unleashed," according to a military order issued by the pariah state’s military "supreme command."
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2...id=msnhp&pos=1

well anyways, i live in the southern coast of California, so this is some scary stuffs
if North Korea plans to bomb us here.

U.S. says they cant nuke us, but those medium-range missiles will be the real deal.
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Old 2013-03-26, 12:35   Link #468
Tom Bombadil
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Well, ever since their nuclear test, NK has been seeking attention from the US, scraping the armistice, poor quality videos of bombing US, and the basketball show. However, the US kept ignoring them since they have been "fooled" quite a few times. I don't think this new trick is going to work either.
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Old 2013-03-26, 19:56   Link #469
KiraYamatoFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
I wonder which way would they flee?

Technically China is their ally, but I can't help but feel the Chinese soldiers are more likely to shoot them on sight than South Koreans.
I have seen the Chinese doing some weird and sometimes awful things in the name of national security (*cough* Tien An Men, 1989 *cough*). I wouldn't be surprised if they resort to that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
I think the issue of North Korean special forces attacks is probably the biggest long term concern for the South. North Korean artillery positions can only fire so many shots before their positions are ID'ed and taken out by ROK and USA airstrikes. And massive full frontal attacks are going to be pretty damn casualty intensive for the North Koreans. North Korean commando/terror attacks are arguably going to be something trickier to deal with if they manage to get into the country.
The ROK are probably aware of the damage those special forces can do, but South Korean special forces can do some damage of their own early on with something reminiscent of what the Viet-Cong came to fear from expeditionary South Korean units in the 1960s and 1970s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
Fundamentally Kim would have to be kept alive by China if they want someone to symbolically stop the conflict. Someone who might not be as powerful as he wanted to be, but is still important enough to influience the country. If Kim dies, it might cause chaos that's out of China's hands.
Good luck to China in convincing Kim to stop anything, especially after the 2 middle fingers he already showed to Beijing.

I hope you're not telling us that North Korea would turn into a land of civil war with so many factions fighting each other if Kim dies. This is not like Yugoslavia after Josip Broz Tito died. What else could possibly happen if Kim kicks the bucket? You tell us; that's quite an interesting subject for debate.
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Old 2013-03-26, 20:50   Link #470
Roger Rambo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
China probably would NOT approve of the Koreas turning into Afghanistan. If anything they would force Kim to end the war in any way they can. terrorism at their doorstep is BAD for business.

Fundamentally Kim would have to be kept alive by China if they want someone to symbolically stop the conflict. Someone who might not be as powerful as he wanted to be, but is still important enough to influience the country. If Kim dies, it might cause chaos that's out of China's hands.
Warfare in general is going to be bad for business.


Keeping the North Korean regime intact if they did start a major conflict would be very difficult. If the DPRK goes and starts a war with significant ROK civilian casualties, the ROK government will be under heavy pressure to give a strong response. Both to protect its citizens, and to not appear weak in letting the DPRK get the upper hand of them in this conflict. If the DPRK starts serious shit, the very real possibility exists that could lionize the ROK into wanting to march north of the 38th and dismantle the Northern regime. BARE MINIUM, the ROK will want the DPRK to come to the table and accept a penalizing peace treaty greatly in the ROK's favor, which will require they exert decisive military victories.

If shit happens, then China won't be able to nicely ask the Korea's to stop fighting. And China runs a dicey game. If they press the ROK too hard about a peace treaty while they're in the middle of a war with the DPRK, then the ROK is going to start thinking of the PRC as an enemy. And the last thing China needs is a more militarized ROK with closer US relations staring across the barbed wire into Manchuria.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
The ROK are probably aware of the damage those special forces can do, but South Korean special forces can do some damage of their own early on with something reminiscent of what the Viet-Cong came to fear from expeditionary South Korean units in the 1960s and 1970s.
Oh I'm not doubting the capability of ROK special forces. I'm just pointing out that the less well equipped side tends to benefit the most from asymmetrical warfare. ROK commandos are tough, but all the other modern weapon systems the ROK has makes Special Forces a somewhat smaller part of their strategy.

As DPRK artillery, infantry, and tank divisions progressively get torn to shreds by the ROK/USA forces, the DPRK is going to have to increasingly rely on asymmetrical commando/terrorist operations.
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Old 2013-03-26, 21:22   Link #471
Sumeragi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Rambo View Post
And the last thing China needs is a more militarized ROK with closer US relations staring across the barbed wire into Manchuria.
The only way that is not going to happen is if PRC basically offers ROK a free hand in northern Korea. Any attempt at "persuasion" will backfire given the general anti-Chinese tendencies.
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Old 2013-03-26, 21:42   Link #472
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If the Kim's miscalculate and started something that SK to respond. China is going to drop them like a rock and would immediately be offering support to SK.

You can accuse the Chinese leadership of many but stupidity isn't one of them.
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Old 2013-03-26, 22:31   Link #473
AnimeFan188
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The US Army Is Planning For A Failed Nuclear State In North Korea:

"Crippling sanctions, starving soldiers , and an antiquated, rickety military
collectively push the idea of a concerted North Korean strike to the fringes of
credibility.

Planners in Washington envision a more insidious threat: the untimely collapse of
Kim Jong-un's government.

Paul McLeary of Defense News posted today about a classified military wargame
that played out the sudden collapse of North Korea and the immediate actions of
the U.S. Military."

See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-arm...233937289.html
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Old 2013-03-27, 00:11   Link #474
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnimeFan188 View Post
The US Army Is Planning For A Failed Nuclear State In North Korea:

"Crippling sanctions, starving soldiers , and an antiquated, rickety military
collectively push the idea of a concerted North Korean strike to the fringes of
credibility.

Planners in Washington envision a more insidious threat: the untimely collapse of
Kim Jong-un's government.

Paul McLeary of Defense News posted today about a classified military wargame
that played out the sudden collapse of North Korea and the immediate actions of
the U.S. Military."

See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-arm...233937289.html
What about South Korean intelligence?

I think the NIS probably know alot more, but didn't tell the Americans out of fear the latter will blab it to the world media.
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Old 2013-03-27, 00:38   Link #475
JokerD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant View Post
China has no trouble sending NK escapees back to their country to certain doom. I don't see how they would have political issues "defending their boarders".
While that is true currently where China treats any NK escapees as economic refugees, when bullets start flying, they are not going to have that excuse.
Thank again, if people are kill but nobody reports it, is it still a death?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
the NK Special Forces is only a problem if the war last more then a week. I am pretty after the first shot is fire by NK. SK and US would turn the NK capital into a sea of fire. The place would crawling with predator Drones.
Sea of fire being a figurative term I hope, international opinion works both ways were civilian deaths are concerned.
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Old 2013-03-27, 04:28   Link #476
SaintessHeart
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Watch your tongue, say Kim Jong Un to SK's Lady President

She should have replied , "Shut up little brat."
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Old 2013-03-27, 11:22   Link #477
KiraYamatoFan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
I think the NIS probably know alot more, but didn't tell the Americans out of fear the latter will blab it to the world media.
Like what?

If there's something that is worth telling, the NIS better say it to the Americans considering that national security of several countries in the region, especially South Korea and Japan, is at stakes on a regular basis.
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Old 2013-03-27, 11:23   Link #478
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North Korea is cutting its military hotline with South Korea, the final official communications channel between the two countries – saying “war could break out at any time”.

http://www.euronews.com/2013/03/27/n...t-at-any-time/
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Old 2013-03-27, 18:02   Link #479
SaintessHeart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan View Post
Like what?

If there's something that is worth telling, the NIS better say it to the Americans considering that national security of several countries in the region, especially South Korea and Japan, is at stakes on a regular basis.
You forget how selfish people are when it comes to politics and nationalism.
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Old 2013-03-27, 18:53   Link #480
AmeNoJaku
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintessHeart View Post
You forget how selfish people are when it comes to politics and nationalism.
Thankfully not everyone, the more people are in touch with foreigners, the less nationalist they are. For example, the state-employed guide we had in Jongmyo was as critical about the Japanese occupation, as she was about the anti-Japanese hatred cultivated by the Syngman Rhee junta, which wasn't all that different from Kim Il-sung. Another example was one of the faithful in Beomeasa complex, volunteering to help out foreign visitors, and was apologetic about the monks discussion to realize the Japanese styled buildings to replace them with Korean. Unfortunately, these were a minority, my experience in the South is that 20-30 years of democracy are not enough, despite having done a remarkable progress.
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