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Old 2011-08-28, 14:40   Link #23941
Renall
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A problem with that, however, is that Bern had difficulties locating information about the epitaph solution. None of that would've been necessary if she could have gone and peeked outside the box. There's no reason she oughtn't be able to, right? It's just for informational purposes. It should be relatively trivial, in fact, but she makes it out to have been difficult to find.

If Bern can access external, irrelevant realities, reconstructing the incident actually becomes easy. Think about it for a little bit; you can only use fragments that fit the premise, but you can examine or reference fragments that don't. How much information would you be able to get out of that? Essentially, 99.9999999% of it. She's either not doing this, which doesn't appear to fit her personality (Bern is not sporting, and Bern has every reason to use all information available to her), or she can't do this, which means there's some arbitrary limit on what she can examine.
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Old 2011-08-28, 14:49   Link #23942
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My initial theory was that Bern could only browse among fictions. In other words there are no mutiple universes at all in Umineko and the kakera are just the various fictions created in the real world.

That theory was disrupted at the time she established a precise probability for the existence of a kakera where Lion is accepted.
It doesn't make absolutely any sense.
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Old 2011-08-28, 14:55   Link #23943
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I think there are ways to reconcile that, but most of them aren't very palatable. I wouldn't say it doesn't make any sense... but it's pretty hard to make it entirely acceptable.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:05   Link #23944
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The way I saw it, her limitations were "anything that could have conceivably have happened...so long as it ended the same way as Ange's reality dictates." That's why Lion's fragment had to end with death as well. Because they all represent what people could assume happened, for some reason.

I admit I never gave the matter much thought(at all) but that's generally how I interpreted it. Infinite possibilities, but with the same end. How that makes sense in meta(or at all) I have no idea.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:10   Link #23945
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A problem with that, however, is that Bern had difficulties locating information about the epitaph solution. None of that would've been necessary if she could have gone and peeked outside the box. There's no reason she oughtn't be able to, right? It's just for informational purposes. It should be relatively trivial, in fact, but she makes it out to have been difficult to find.
My theory is that Bern is nothing else but a fictional character Toya created while he was dealing with his amnesia which, in the beginning, represented the extremely low chance that the mystery will be resolved (I guess later on she represented other things as well) therefore until Toya (or someone else) didn't solve the epitaph, or Battler didn't remember the full solution for it, Bern couldn't find the solution as well.

However that's my speculation. Feel free to think different.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:20   Link #23946
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Consider this fact, there are only two ways to determine the probability of an event.
One way is to know the variables that influence the outcome of an event.

Let's take for example me writing a line on onscripter:

rnd 1,10

I will then be able to claim with confidence that there is a 10% probability that the result will be "1".
I know nothing about any actual sample, but the knowledge of the principle behind the program allows me to make that prediction.


The second method is to examine the outcomes themselves. The ideal way is to check the "whole population". for example if I want to know how many black marbles are inside a pouch, I can count them all and then count the ones that are black. From that I'll be able to calculate an absolutely precise percent.
More often, however, since it is impossible or very costly to examine a whole population, you take a sample and then use statistic. depending on how big is your sample you can get a probability very close to the real one.

Now the first case would require Bern to know the variables involved in Natsuhi's decision to accept Lion. This is however something that shouldn't be part of Bern's talents. She'd need to be Laplace Demon.

The second case is more plausible because we know Bern has the power to browse trough a lot of "kakera" therefore she is in the position to acquire any sample she needs at will.

The problem here comes from the absolutely improbable number she pulled out: 2,578,917

Since a "kakera" where Lion is accepted must be an integer, to claim that the mathematical probability of such event to happen is 1 on 2,578,917, she must have at least browsed trough that many kakera.

Now am I really supposed to believe that in the "real world" there were THAT many fictions about the Rokkenjima incident?

Even supposing that Bern looked trough 2,578,917 kakera and only found 1 with Lion, she'd still prove to be absolutely ignorant about how statistic work by making such claim. Her sample should be several magnitude higher to give any statistical validity to such precise estimation.

So I can either conclude that Bern just talked shit there or that she browsed trough something like 30 millions kakera.


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so long as it ended the same way as Ange's reality dictates.
In that case Eva shouldn't die.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:21   Link #23947
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
My initial theory was that Bern could only browse among fictions. In other words there are no mutiple universes at all in Umineko and the kakera are just the various fictions created in the real world.

That theory was disrupted at the time she established a precise probability for the existence of a kakera where Lion is accepted.
It doesn't make absolutely any sense.
No, that part makes perfect sense. Because Lion was a new character created specifically for that fragment, at the moment that story was written, the number of fragments containing Lion was exactly one. So assuming that Bern knew exactly how many fragments had been created up to that point, it would be trivial to establish the probability that a randomly chosen fragment contains Lion.

EDIT:
The story said there weren't so many forgery authors, right? So I think it's easier to rationalize the 2,578,917 number when you consider each fragment to be an interpretation or theory, rather than a written fiction. This thread itself is evidence that one person alone can invent hundreds of those, right?
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:30   Link #23948
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No, that part makes perfect sense. Because Lion was a new character created specifically for that fragment, at the moment that story was written, the number of fragments containing Lion was exactly one. So assuming that Bern knew exactly how many stories had been written up to that point, it would be trivial to establish the probability that a randomly chosen fragment contains Lion.

EDIT:
The story said there weren't so many forgery authors, right? So I think it's easier to rationalize the 2,578,917 number when you consider each fragment to be an interpretation or theory, rather than a written fiction. This thread itself is evidence that one person alone can invent hundreds of those, right?
Then that would mean Bern could be able to browse through mere theories instead of proper fictions.
But then I have two very big problems here.

The first problem is obviously: who the hell made up that theory? There shouldn't be anyone alive capable of coming up with that. Except Tohya of course, but why would tohya make such a "theory"? He has no need to theorize that. Supposing he somehow came to know the whole story during the two dies prior of the explosions, then he'd also knew what truly happened.

The second problem is how do you count it? "the theory of Lion being accepted" as a theory is a single theory. It's only natural that it's "one" theory and isn't in any way connected to the probability of Natsuhi accepting Lion.
The other way you could count it is by the time someone in discussions brought up the idea. But then you could potentially duplicate it infinitely.

Either way it makes very little sense.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:34   Link #23949
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The problem here comes from the absolutely improbable number she pulled out: 2,578,917

Since a "kakera" where Lion is accepted must be an integer, to claim that the mathematical probability of such event to happen is 1 on 2,578,917, she must have at least browsed trough that many kakera.

Now am I really supposed to believe that in the "real world" there were THAT many fictions about the Rokkenjima incident?
A more amusing theory is that Ryukishi07 browsed through the messages he had received from fans before writing Ep 7, found out that only 1 of them contained the premises for Lion's birth and used that as data for Bern to use.
However I've no idea how many messages Ryukishi07 might have received during that time so this is mostly a wild guess.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:39   Link #23950
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Even supposing that Bern looked trough 2,578,917 kakera and only found 1 with Lion, she'd still prove to be absolutely ignorant about how statistic work by making such claim. Her sample should be several magnitude higher to give any statistical validity to such precise estimation.

So I can either conclude that Bern just talked shit there or that she browsed trough something like 30 millions kakera.
Iirc Bern searched 2578917 and found 1 with Lion, and said something like "it means you could say that the probability was 1/2578917". I'm sure she knows how probability works; she just wanted to put it in those terms to fuck with Ange. Either that or you could say that probability means something different to "The Witch of Miracles".

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It's very important to establish, however, what we're supposed to be caring about. If we don't, it's hard to derive much satisfaction of things ending one way or the other for one particular iteration.
Actually, this brings up an important point. Ryuukishi drags quite a few meta/magical scenes on to extreme lengths clearly trying to get us to care. We're supposed to care about Will courageously saving Lion from Bernkastel. We're supposed to care about Lambadelta's brave defiance of Featherine. We're supposed to care about Beatrice's death and resurrection. We're supposed to care who wins the love duel between Kanon and Shannon. We're supposed to care about everyone struggling to defend the Golden Land. And we're supposed to care for Sakutarou and the 7 stakes when Ange denies them.

Now, if he had intended Author Theory to be the only valid interpretation of Umineko, why would he do that?

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EDIT: Also not to get into a moral philosophy tangent (unless someone wants me to), but downplaying the primacy of R-Prime pretty much wrecks any moral takeaway the story can have. I can elaborate, but it's merely going to be my opinion, as I doubt Ryukishi put much thought into the consequences of that even if he really did intend it.
The main moral of the story is "Fuck your Red Truth! I've got Gold Truth!" And if you think that's a shitty moral, well, that's because it kinda is.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:47   Link #23951
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Iirc Bern searched 2578917 and found 1 with Lion, and said something like "it means you could say that the probability was 1/2578917". I'm sure she knows how probability works; she just wanted to put it in those terms to fuck with Ange. Either that or you could say that probability means something different to "The Witch of Miracles".
she sure put it in a different way

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Mathematically speaking, there's actually a 2,578,916/2,578,917 chance of her refusing to raise you.
Of course the idea that Bern actually knew the facts and only described them in a deceiving way (to fuck with Lion, not Ange, Ange wasn't there), it's a perfectly plausible explanation.

But then that still means that Bern was talking shit.
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Old 2011-08-28, 15:56   Link #23952
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Then that would mean Bern could be able to browse through mere theories instead of proper fictions.
But then I have two very big problems here.

The first problem is obviously: who the hell made up that theory? There shouldn't be anyone alive capable of coming up with that. Except Tohya of course, but why would Tohya make such a "theory"? He has no need to theorize that. Supposing he somehow came to know the whole story during the two dies prior of the explosions, then he'd also knew what truly happened.
Lion could be conceived by anyone alive who would know of Yasu's history which, based on episodes 5-7, may have been coming to light among some people who had no direct connection with Rokkenjima (for example, they gathered the hints from the previous forgeries and were able to guess at Yasu's history). It doesn't have to be very plausible, since we know that some other forgeries are demonstrably false themselves.

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The second problem is how do you count it? "the theory of Lion being accepted" as a theory is a single theory. It's only natural that it's "one" theory and isn't in any way connected to the probability of Natsuhi accepting Lion.
The other way you could count it is by the time someone in discussions brought up the idea. But then you could potentially duplicate it infinitely.
You don't count it; if the meta-world is just imagination then 2,578,917 can just be an arbitrary number that really just means "a lot".
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:07   Link #23953
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Actually, this brings up an important point. Ryuukishi drags quite a few meta/magical scenes on to extreme lengths clearly trying to get us to care. We're supposed to care about Will courageously saving Lion from Bernkastel. We're supposed to care about Lambadelta's brave defiance of Featherine. We're supposed to care about Beatrice's death and resurrection. We're supposed to care who wins the love duel between Kanon and Shannon. We're supposed to care about everyone struggling to defend the Golden Land. And we're supposed to care for Sakutarou and the 7 stakes when Ange denies them.

Now, if he had intended Author Theory to be the only valid interpretation of Umineko, why would he do that?
Because none of those occur in a story environment that is actually relevant to an alternate-reality theory. No matter the theory, the meta-world takes on a very different character and is capable of being self-contained even if it's made up. Lion's happiness as an entirely fictional character (if indeed that is all he is) still matters in the context of the fiction in which he exists.
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The main moral of the story is "Fuck your Red Truth! I've got Gold Truth!" And if you think that's a shitty moral, well, that's because it kinda is.
I'm talking about the nature of the moral agency. It's something that doesn't crop up anywhere but time travel and dimension-sliding stories, really. Normally, the protagonist is the moral agent we follow and whose moral development and choices we care about. There's generally little confusion about this.

It can still work sometimes, as it does in Higurashi. In Higurashi the moral agent is Rika and we care where Rika "ends up" even though, as Rika herself points out, in a bunch of other realities things didn't work out for her. Of course, there's no reason to believe that the universe must, by necessity, go in favor of a single girl in a single village on a single planet. Indeed, I'm sure quite a lot of moral situations or the lot of certain individuals is actually improved in universes where Rika Furude ends up dead. But that isn't what we're supposed to care about narratively, because Rika is cast as the agent and therefore we're supposed to care about her and her friends, not whether Rika getting into college in 10 years means no admission for a poor but brilliant girl who otherwise would have gone on to cure cancer. We're supposed to care about the judgment Rika makes about what world she would like to end up in and decide whether she made that decision correctly. If we stretch enough, we could condemn any decision she makes, but that isn't the point of what the fiction is supposed to be showing us.

With Umineko, however, the problem is considerably stickier. Who is the moral agent?
  • Is it Piece-Battler? Clearly not, as his decisions are self-contained to individual game boards. Nothing he does has any consequence on the overarching moral narrative. He's incapable of learning and incapable of affecting his output state. He is solely manipulated by outside forces he has no sensation of.
  • Is it Meta-Battler? Maybe, but what is BATTLER's origin exactly? Is he the Battler from Legend? Is he the Battler from Rokkenjima Prime? Is he some sort of ex nihilo consciousness spawned at the ep1 Tea Party to become a protagonist in the meta-world? Does that make the meta-world the morally important layer?
  • Is it Ange? Clearly she's the one around whom the moral decisions in Twilight revolve. What does that make of all the things BATTLER does, then? Is it all just shaping her moral trajectory? If so, we really aren't supposed to care that much about the actions and decisions of any of the people inside the box, at least narratively.
Basically, the question comes down to "Which character is learning and coming to a decision about the moral state of the narrative, and whether we agree with them or not, do we understand how they got there?" If we accept that any given Battler or Ange is equally likely to be this character, then we never actually arrive at a moral conclusion which the reader can comprehend and judge.
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:19   Link #23954
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Which character is learning and coming to a decision about the moral state of the narrative, and whether we agree with them or not, do we understand how they got there?
Isn't it Toya? Or Battler of the future if you prefer. He fought to recover his memory back, gained it back no matter how unpleasant it was and dealt with it deciding, for example, not to spread the truth about the Rokkenjima incident as Eva also decided, at the same time hoping he would get a chance to meet Ange again and that she would manage to go on living as well, despite having lost her family.

Though I admit since we're told only at the last moment of 'Toya's existence' is pretty easy to forget about him...
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:21   Link #23955
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It can only be Touya in a story where Touya's existence has primacy. In other words, if Touya is the moral agent, then R-Prime must be more important than other realities. If R-Prime is more important, there must logically be a reason why that's so.
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:29   Link #23956
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Basically, the question comes down to "Which character is learning and coming to a decision about the moral state of the narrative, and whether we agree with them or not, do we understand how they got there?" If we accept that any given Battler or Ange is equally likely to be this character, then we never actually arrive at a moral conclusion which the reader can comprehend and judge.
I think it is both BATTLER/Tya and Ange and I somehow don't have this problem of arriving at a solution to your dilemma? For me their stories are so clearly seperate from each other that there is no problem for me to accept their goals and morals as to different journeys that I can at least associate with.

The goal for Battler is to solve the mystery around the tragedy on Rokkenjima and prove that there was no witch involved, when in fact it was possibly a something that benefited him in the first place. His whole journey of selfsatisfaction is a tragedy of errors, battling against a foe that actually isn't there.
The goal for Ange is to arrive at the truth of the Rokkenjima incident and either avenge or regain the life she lost, not noticing that good things were around her as well. Her journey of selfsatisaction blinded her towards any good parts of her life and so she was battling foes that weren't there.
Hey...they're not that different after all I think.

The only problem I still admit to have as well is, that we don't arrive at the very same conclusion as those two, because the revelation that befalls them (Battlers finding of the truth and Anges reading of the diary) is not shared with the reader...so we stay behind those two and just have to accept the point that they reached without ever really knowing what the driving force behind their decision truly was.

I don't know why it seems to be so important to you that there has to be just one moral agent in a narrative...especially when it is about conflicting morals and ideals in the first place.

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In other words, if Touya is the moral agent, then R-Prime must be more important than other realities.
Why?
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:30   Link #23957
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It can only be Touya in a story where Touya's existence has primacy. In other words, if Touya is the moral agent, then R-Prime must be more important than other realities. If R-Prime is more important, there must logically be a reason why that's so.
Well, I guess the importance is decided by the reader. As far as I'm involved I'm more curious to know what had happened in Rokkenjima Prime that the tricks used to perpetrate the murders in the forgeries but there's who would favour forgeries as well.

For me Rokkenjima Prime is the world that works as inspiration for the forgeries, and the forgeries are nothing more than fantasies that you must interpretate to figure out the truth of Rokkenjima Prime.
It's like asking me if I'm more curious to know the ending of a story or the ending of a fanfic based on that story.
However other people might have different beliefs.

I guess the upside/downside of Umineko is that although Ryukishi07 likely wanted to push us toward a certain idea he actually let open too many choices.
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:42   Link #23958
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Why?
Because his existence is being advanced as such. I'm not the one pushing him to the fore; Ryukishi is by making his world appear more important. It therefore must be, or else what Ryukishi is doing makes no sense.
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Old 2011-08-28, 16:56   Link #23959
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Because his existence is being advanced as such. I'm not the one pushing him to the fore; Ryukishi is by making his world appear more important. It therefore must be, or else what Ryukishi is doing makes no sense.
Well, since Battler is nothing else but an inner version of Toya, for me it makes sense that Toya and his world are more important since they 'gave life' to the Battler we know and since the Battler we know is part of Toya. But again, that's just me.
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Old 2011-08-28, 17:16   Link #23960
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Because his existence is being advanced as such. I'm not the one pushing him to the fore; Ryukishi is by making his world appear more important. It therefore must be, or else what Ryukishi is doing makes no sense.
I think I understand your problem, but I'd like to disagree.
Tya is not the moral agent of the story, BATTLER (that is the coherent developing character of Battler in all his forms but not the piece that is reverted to Zero each time...though as the games advance the borders start to weaken) and Ange are.
Tya is just a method through which the story can be continued into the time past 1986 within the narrative. He is just a container for the knowledge around the Rokkejima tragedy, but his character as Tya has no effective influence on the story. He could as well have turned out as any kind of person passing those stories around.

He's more like K.K.Koriander in The Neverending Story by Michael Ende. He has a connection to the book and has knowledge and control about it, but he has no further influence on the plot itself instead of allowing the main character Bastian to enter the story.
Also, Bastian is not the center of the narrative for the first half, where Atreyu takes that position also serving as the moral guide through the chapters. He is replaced later and with a new main character the story also receives a slightly different moral trajectory.

Also, while in the end everything in Fantastica is about Bastian finding his own path and resolution about his real life problems, the real world is not the center of the narrative structure. More or less Bastian's real life problems and answers to them can be constructed from his reaction towards the trials he has to go through. Therefore both layers of "reality" link and form a structure that cannot be explained by a mere hierachical structure.

That's how I understood Umineko as well.
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