AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > Anime Discussion > Older Series > Retired > Retired M-Z > Umineko

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2011-09-05, 20:13   Link #24221
Cao Ni Ma
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
EP4, during the scene where Krauss and everyone is escaping, and Shannon and Kanon do some spirit particle jamming anime shit. I don't remember if the version of Windows is specified.
Im pretty sure they didnt mention it. What actually crashed was their IME or the method she used to communicate. Without it she just sounded like a bunny.

e- Regarding the letters, didnt Beatrice state she wrote 3? If we can trust her then chances are that she made sure the first two got to where they needed to be before the event took place. Maybe Land was the one that was written as the events took place and was the only one that was actually sent to sea thus getting lost. Would make a good metaphor to the whole catbox "The truth is written and is out there ,but you'll never get to read it"

vvvv
Al early OSs where junk by todays standards and frequently hung up, crashed and rebooted. Whether it was an hourglass and a blue screen or a beach ball and a bomb. We only assume its a joke on windows causes its what most of us use.

Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-05 at 20:34.
Cao Ni Ma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 20:24   Link #24222
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
They specifically mention operating systems that are very Windows-like, complaining about drop menus changing with every version, having to reboot, reinstall, and call tech-support, and other such jokes a Windows user would get.
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 21:16   Link #24223
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
That's why I think Ange is sort of fictional. In Umineko she has 3 different ending:
1) she dies at the end of Ep 4 during the fight with the Sumadera
2) she never reach Rokkenjima though she moved to get there and killed Juuza and the captain of the boat
3) she never tried to go on Rokkenjima, became a writer and later met Toya
Exactly. And assuming episode 8's "????" to be "real", #1 is clearly not "real". #2 is possibly "real", but probably not. For obvious reasons I think that #3 is the true "real" ending. Also, we know that Ange's meeting with Ikuko is not "real".

So, we know that #1 is not "real", which means that we can't take anything in episode 4's 1998 narrative for granted. Now, we base a lot of our understanding of the bottle-stories' past on Ange's journey in this narrative, which in all probability never happened. You could say that parts of that narrative are "real", and parts of it are not. However, after the rooftop scene (the divergence point) I don't think there's anything important in episode 4 that meshes well with the narrative of the true "real" ending (#3).

Ok, so just because it's not "real" doesn't mean it doesn't have parts of it that are true or otherwise useful; that's how Umineko works, after all. Let's take a look at the options of what episode 4's 1998 might be, so that we can sort out what might be applicable to the "real" world:
  • It's a purely "what if" scenario. I don't like this view because it's essentially Kakera Theory (and we're speaking in the context of Author Theory). It's essentially another Ange in an otherwise identical world, that has no direct relationship with the "real" world; it's Ryuukishi speaking directly to us. Since it's otherwise identical, even if Ange's actions are different, the information she gathers about the world is 100% applicable to the "real" world.
  • It's purely meta. I don't like this view because although it's plausible, it's really boring. In this case, it probably just means someone (Touya? Ange?) is thinking about it. If that's the case, how would they actually know these things they're only thinking about? If it's Ange thinking about it on the rooftop, then we can be assured at least that pretty much everything before that point is "real" (magical embellishments aside), and that she really did have Maria's diary. However, she would know nothing about the message bottles that wasn't public, and she would not know if the writing in Maria's diary matched that of the bottle-stories. If it's Touya thinking about it, then it doesn't seem likely he'd know any facts that weren't public knowledge, other than perhaps who wrote them. But, in any case it's pretty unlikely that either Ange or Touya would know that Beatrice's writing in Maria's diary matches that of the bottle-stories.
  • It's written fiction. I like this idea because it's plausible and interesting. It could be part of Alliance or independent of it. It was almost certainly written by Touya, and what information he has access to I have discussed above.

So, yeah, I'm assuming episode 4's 1998 narrative is either meta or fiction, which means it is not reliable. The two bottles being found by the police and the fisherman are depicted as common knowledge, so we can assume this is the actual widely accepted story, but whether Ange has Maria's diary, whether that diary has "Ushiromiya Maria"'s handwriting in it, and whether Beatrice sent mysterious letters to the family members of the deceased with bank account numbers in them is all not common knowledge. And parts that are not common knowledge are probably made up.

You know, a lot of things fit together quite easily if we imagine that Ikuko is Yasu. Why was this idea dismissed?
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 21:19   Link #24224
haguruma
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Germany
Age: 30
Send a message via ICQ to haguruma Send a message via MSN to haguruma
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
If you think the message bottles were written before the incident:[list][*]Why were certain details so accurate? They'd have to be written very close to or during the incident to assure every detail is right. And they still miss a critical detail (Eva's survival). Why would that be?
It's enough if they were written approximately 2 or 3 days prior to the incident. Ange being sick was something that could have been known beforehand (as long as probably 1 week in case of a 6 year old child) and Battler seems to have called at least 2 or 3 days in advance.
Even in the 80's a typhoon report of that magnitude would have arrived at least a few days in advance as mostly they are storms which travel over a longer span of the Pacific area. While they did not know of an exact time when the typhoon would hit a certain place in terms of hours, it could still be forecasted on a broader scale.
Everything else that appears accurate could as well be good guessing or total fiction. We have reason to believe that Yasu knew about things like Rosa's cruelty or the fact that George was very likely to propose to her.

Quote:
If a bottle was found the day of the incident, why did it take the police so long to publish it? If it's evidence, why was it later released? If it was seen as nonsense (which would be reasonable), why wasn't it thrown away or shoved in a box of evidence and forgotten? While I don't know everything about Japanese police procedure, I've never known a cop who is eager to publicize evidence that won't actually help the case. And evidence that will fuel rampant public speculation about ridiculous theories? I dunno, man.
As far as I remember the bottle was stored as evidence and forgotten, like police in Japan handles most of all items they find at crime scenes. They were exactly not eager to publish anything about the bottle letter because they regarded it as some kind of fiction and probably feared that it could create a public outburst. It was only publicized when the 2nd bottle was later released to the public by the fisherman (probably in the early 90's when mystery fiction experienced a sudden boom anyway), when they suddenly felt the need to recheck evidence. Only by that did the Witch Hunters apparently get their hands on the police report in which the 1st message bottle was recorded as an item found at the scene.

Quote:
Who, exactly, "confirmed" when that bottle was found? Was this an official police press release? Was it some detective a Witch Hunter contacted? An individual officer can be bought... or a conversation with one made up. Witch Hunters appear to be really gullible.
The 1st bottle was recorded as evidence found at the crime scene and put into storage. The 2nd message bottle was only confirmed by comparison with the 1st and it's quite probable by what we were told that they were not only similar in content and handwriting, but also were contained in the same bottle and written on the same paper.
The 1st message bottle was confirmed by the police to have been created some days prior to the incident. So if anything only the 2nd message bottle found by the fisherman could have been a fake...which would mean that the author of the first bottle would have had to create a similar message in a similar bottle, which he somehow forged to appear under police research like it was created several years ago. This seems even more unlikely and, for me, falls under the "police conspiracy X" plot.

Quote:
Why did the fisherman wait so long? An explanation is offered in ep4. Is it convincing? Are there any other possible explanations for why that particular message bottle would've turned up when it did? Can anyone actually prove the fisherman had it as long as he claims, or that he had it at all? Why didn't he read the contents of the bottle and turn it over as possible evidence right away?
The fisherman didn't wait long at all. It was said by EP1 already that it was several years later when a message bottle was found by that fisherman. So it's probable that he found it only after the occult mania started in the late 80's, early 90's and after Eva had started the Rokkenjima fandom by selling Kinz's collection from Kuwadorian. He found the message bottle and seemed to have learned pretty close to the event that there was an active group of occult fans who were into memorabilia from Rokkenjima. Maybe he had also heard about the incident on the news. So he might have either taken it to the police who researched it directly or sold it at a reasonable price to a collector who then started researching it.

Quote:
Which bottle was which? Was the one found on the day of the accident Legend, Turn, or something else entirely? Likewise the one "found" by the fisherman. This is kind of important because the one in the hands of the fisherman is considerably harder to prove was actually found when the guy says it was. If it's Legend, I would be extremely suspicious, because Legend is the one story that absolutely cannot be lost, the way Land supposedly was.
As long as the fantasy and meta scenes are not part of the message bottles there is no story that absolutely cannot be lost. It doesn't matter at all if they read Legend or Turn first, as they are both scenarios which end in a similar tragedy, even if the way towards it is slightly different and the individual implied gain to certain characters is different if you know the truth.

Quote:
How could the author be sure everything she'd set up before the incident would remain in place if she intended or expected to die? If that wasn't what she anticipated, why release the bottles at all? What made sure her bank accounts weren't closed out?
She released the bottles either way because there was nothing to lose either way. Had she survived then the message bottle stories were just that, stories. Nobody would need to pay any attention to them and they could be cast aside as a simple prank. In case she did die it would be a message to the afterworld with the plea she inserted at the end "please find the truth!". It's important to remember that she never seemed to anticipate any actual oposition from the Ushiromiyas as she actually planned to die the last. Hybris? Yes, of course.
And there was no need to fear for any failure in the rest of her tricks. The letters would definitely go back to their original senders, which she forged as the people who were originally supposed to receive the letters...so she didn't need to know any certain adress. And what she put up weren't actually bank accounts but safe deposit boxes in a bank vault which functions quite differently as far as I am informed. It's not impossible to imagine that it was a high security section that ensured a very long storage time and it's possible that Yasu rented those boxes under the condition that they were to be opened by several people in the future.

Quote:
Was the author really okay with all or most of the message bottles simply being lost at sea? Why would the author write an establishing episode like Legend knowing it might be lost but something like Land might not? Is that really a coherent thing to "take a risk on?" If you wanted to risk some of the bottles going missing, shouldn't they all be capable of standing on their own? Would that really happen if Turn was the only one found?
If the incident happened and none of the message bottles are found fate would have decided that it was to be known as an accident. One has to imagine that for Yasu it didn't seem to be an option that anybody survived...it was either all or none.
In my theory there is no preferred story among the message bottles, they were all equal and were (if anything) only different by what kind of mystery novels were recreated in order to make Battler remember and how much the author liked how the story turned out. Each could have been lost at sea and all could have been found...it does not matter.

Quote:
And finally, for everyone:
Why does one bottle story potentially being written at least by the 5th (bear in mind this can still be post-incident, as long as it's pre-explosion; that presupposes there were murders of some sort of course) mean all such bottles had to have been written at the same time? That doesn't follow at all. Wouldn't it be much easier to prepare, say, one story, and have others be "found" later on?
The author had to make sure that any of her stories were found ad probably she wasn't sure which event was most likely to take place, so she released all of her imagined scenarios to the world. More stories mean a higher chance of at least one surviving the weather and the incident.
And as she probably used this stories as a basic idea how to carry out her elegant night of murder and mystery in order to make Battler remember, she only wrote down what she had in mind anyway...it's not like she had to search very far in her mind for those stories.

Quote:
[*]If you believe Yasu to be responsible for the message bottles, which vision of Yasu is it: The resigned-to-fate roulette-spinning puppet, or the clever trickster who ties a string around her finger so she always knows where the things important to her are at all times? Do you think your particular view of the author influences whether or not you believe the messages were written before or after the incident? If you could be assured that one view or the other was true, would it change your mind, or at least make you view things differently?
I think it is not quite reasonable to limit yourself to any of those two depictions only because the stories want us to believe in one of those two. Yasu is neither a cunning, cold-hearted genius of murder (Beatrice) nor the sad little doll who wants to die (Clair) we are presented with. Yasu believed in the principle of fate and the idea of a roulette of fate, because she thought that it was the only way of not actively doing the wrong thing. My idea of him/her is that s/he was still not dumb or naive, just very insecure because of the damage done to her reproductive organs and the resulted confusion concerning her sex.
She must have been meticulous in her planning, which fits her profile of constructing whole universes to uphold her idea of the world. She never actually admits failure she just reconstructs her idea of the world in order to feel better (she vanishes to the Golden Land and leaves Shannon behind, she makes Beatrice take Shannon's pain, she gives Shannon a brother in order not to be alone, etc.).
Of course with this idea of Yasu it is pretty unreasonable to imagine that she would survive the incident, because it would go against her own plan, which would imply her failure.

Quote:
Just how many message bottles were written anyway? Were all the ones not found by 1998 lost, or had they just not turned up yet? Would someone have a reason to hide one if they owned one?
There were > 3 stories. We know of at least 3 stories, Legend, Turn and Land, but it's not impossible to imagine that there were several other stories she created and put on paper. Maybe one of the bottles smashed against a rock, was eaten by a large fish, remained in Yasu's room and was destroyed in the explosion/landslide.

Quote:
If a new message bottle turned up suddenly, and the handwriting matched, how could anyone prove when it was actually written? Do you think any of the Witch Hunters would put in the effort to determine that? What do you think the result would be?
It's quite possible to do some scientific research to determine how old a message was or when a bottle was sealed. You could also check the bottles and determine if they are of a certain brand. There are several ways to determine that.
Also if the handwriting matched it would at least imply a similar age than the oldest found message bottle, even though of course nothing speaks against "surviving author X" writing other stories if s/he existed.
haguruma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 21:31   Link #24225
LyricalAura
Dea ex Kakera
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
You know, a lot of things fit together quite easily if we imagine that Ikuko is Yasu. Why was this idea dismissed?
Beats me, it's been my primary theory for months. Especially since Ikuko = I-ku-ko = 19子, which is an awfully wild coincidence if she isn't Yasu.
__________________
"Something has fallen on us that falls very seldom on men; perhaps the worst thing that can fall on them. We have found the truth; and the truth makes no sense."
LyricalAura is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:02   Link #24226
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Beats me, it's been my primary theory for months. Especially since Ikuko = I-ku-ko = 19子, which is an awfully wild coincidence if she isn't Yasu.
Ha. I didn't even realize that. How can she not be Yasu, then?
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:08   Link #24227
Dirty_Harry
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Exactly. And assuming episode 8's "????" to be "real", #1 is clearly not "real". #2 is possibly "real", but probably not. For obvious reasons I think that #3 is the true "real" ending. Also, we know that Ange's meeting with Ikuko is not "real".

So, we know that #1 is not "real", which means that we can't take anything in episode 4's 1998 narrative for granted. Now, we base a lot of our understanding of the bottle-stories' past on Ange's journey in this narrative, which in all probability never happened. You could say that parts of that narrative are "real", and parts of it are not. However, after the rooftop scene (the divergence point) I don't think there's anything important in episode 4 that meshes well with the narrative of the true "real" ending (#3).

Ok, so just because it's not "real" doesn't mean it doesn't have parts of it that are true or otherwise useful; that's how Umineko works, after all. Let's take a look at the options of what episode 4's 1998 might be, so that we can sort out what might be applicable to the "real" world:
  • It's a purely "what if" scenario. I don't like this view because it's essentially Kakera Theory (and we're speaking in the context of Author Theory). It's essentially another Ange in an otherwise identical world, that has no direct relationship with the "real" world; it's Ryuukishi speaking directly to us. Since it's otherwise identical, even if Ange's actions are different, the information she gathers about the world is 100% applicable to the "real" world.
  • It's purely meta. I don't like this view because although it's plausible, it's really boring. In this case, it probably just means someone (Touya? Ange?) is thinking about it. If that's the case, how would they actually know these things they're only thinking about? If it's Ange thinking about it on the rooftop, then we can be assured at least that pretty much everything before that point is "real" (magical embellishments aside), and that she really did have Maria's diary. However, she would know nothing about the message bottles that wasn't public, and she would not know if the writing in Maria's diary matched that of the bottle-stories. If it's Touya thinking about it, then it doesn't seem likely he'd know any facts that weren't public knowledge, other than perhaps who wrote them. But, in any case it's pretty unlikely that either Ange or Touya would know that Beatrice's writing in Maria's diary matches that of the bottle-stories.
  • It's written fiction. I like this idea because it's plausible and interesting. It could be part of Alliance or independent of it. It was almost certainly written by Touya, and what information he has access to I have discussed above.

So, yeah, I'm assuming episode 4's 1998 narrative is either meta or fiction, which means it is not reliable. The two bottles being found by the police and the fisherman are depicted as common knowledge, so we can assume this is the actual widely accepted story, but whether Ange has Maria's diary, whether that diary has "Ushiromiya Maria"'s handwriting in it, and whether Beatrice sent mysterious letters to the family members of the deceased with bank account numbers in them is all not common knowledge. And parts that are not common knowledge are probably made up.

You know, a lot of things fit together quite easily if we imagine that Ikuko is Yasu. Why was this idea dismissed?
You summed up everything I was thinking about the reality of Ange in 1998 not be true. But I do not discard Kakera Theory, because I do not think that R07 would spend much of the EP 4 with something that may be all made up(whether in fiction or in someone's head).
Dirty_Harry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:12   Link #24228
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Ha. I didn't even realize that. How can she not be Yasu, then?
Because it means that Yasu got away, became several years older, had a house and a pre-existing reputation as a writer the day she found Battler collapsed in the street. How the fuck would Yasu do all that in like 24 hours?
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:22   Link #24229
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirty_Harry View Post
You summed up everything I was thinking about the reality of Ange in 1998 not be true. But I do not discard Kakera Theory, because I do not think that R07 would spend much of the EP 4 with something that may be all made up(whether in fiction or in someone's head).
Well, basically I don't dismiss Kakera Theory outright; I just think RK07 allowed for it. However, Kakera Theory has a certain level of friction with Author Theory, so I try not to mix them.

And even if it's all made up, it doesn't mean that it isn't important, especially if you think in terms of it as a fiction that includes messages meant for certain people.
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:26   Link #24230
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Because it means that Yasu got away, became several years older, had a house and a pre-existing reputation as a writer the day she found Battler collapsed in the street. How the fuck would Yasu do all that in like 24 hours?
What pre-existing reputation? Am I forgetting something? Iirc she said she submitted one thing to a publishing company once and was rejected, and that's it.

And who says it was 24 hours? Iirc there was no indication of how much time passed between October 6th, 1986 and Touya and Ikuko's meeting.
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:39   Link #24231
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Why were certain details so accurate? They'd have to be written very close to or during the incident to assure every detail is right. And they still miss a critical detail (Eva's survival). Why would that be?
Honestly... the only detail that Yasu couldn't logically foresee was the absence of Ange (which I still can't explain) and the typhoon (which might or might not have been foreseable depending on how much time earlier she wrote the stories). But the rest? It was either foreseable, directly manipulable or it didn't happen at all in the real world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
If a bottle was found the day of the incident, why did it take the police so long to publish it? If it's evidence, why was it later released? If it was seen as nonsense (which would be reasonable), why wasn't it thrown away or shoved in a box of evidence and forgotten? While I don't know everything about Japanese police procedure, I've never known a cop who is eager to publicize evidence that won't actually help the case. And evidence that will fuel rampant public speculation about ridiculous theories? I dunno, man.
While the contents of the message were obviously garbage, considering the fact that it was found near Rokkenjima, was signed "Maria Ushiromiya", and described the death of all the Rokkenjima inhabitants between 4 and 5 October. I'd be surprised if in a real situation the police wouldn't take it as a possible evidence.
As for the rest it's very fuzzy. Ryuukishi never explained clearly how come that message that was supposed to have been forgotten and kept secret was suddenly published to the public.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Who, exactly, "confirmed" when that bottle was found? Was this an official police press release? Was it some detective a Witch Hunter contacted? An individual officer can be bought... or a conversation with one made up. Witch Hunters appear to be really gullible
I invoke occam razor here. If it is said that the "police found the message bottle" the easiest explanation is that the police confirmed that. Why imagining that it was some never mentioned detective? Why imagining that there's bribery involved (without any hint of that)?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Why did the fisherman wait so long?
He didn't. He found the bottle a few years after the incident and promptly told the world about his finding.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Which bottle was which? Was the one found on the day of the accident Legend, Turn, or something else entirely? Likewise the one "found" by the fisherman. This is kind of important because the one in the hands of the fisherman is considerably harder to prove was actually found when the guy says it was. If it's Legend, I would be extremely suspicious, because Legend is the one story that absolutely cannot be lost, the way Land supposedly was.
It's kinda irrelevant since we aren't even sure if the messages tell the same story we have seen in the games and in the same way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
How could the author be sure everything she'd set up before the incident would remain in place if she intended or expected to die? If that wasn't what she anticipated, why release the bottles at all? What made sure her bank accounts weren't closed out?
I trust what Beatrice herself said in EP8. It didn't even mattered if those messages were found. It didn't matter at all. She did it for fun, to imitate what the culprit of "and then there were none" did. If they were found, good. If they weren't, well too bad.
As for the bank accounts... why should they be closed out? At any rate yet again she didn't care if the various relative of the victims actually received the money or not. It was her way to compensate them for killing their closed ones, but if it didn't work... well who cares, she did her part.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Was the author really okay with all or most of the message bottles simply being lost at sea? Why would the author write an establishing episode like Legend knowing it might be lost but something like Land might not? Is that really a coherent thing to "take a risk on?" If you wanted to risk some of the bottles going missing, shouldn't they all be capable of standing on their own? Would that really happen if Turn was the only one found?
Again, she didn't give a damn. She was about to kill herself along with any person she loved and cared for. Do you really find strange that a suicidal person doesn't give a damn about what happenes after he dies?
She was going to die, she just played her last gigantic prank before going. And she liked her pranks only when there was a chance they'd fail.


Quote:
Ha. I didn't even realize that. How can she not be Yasu, then?
Because...
1) Everything we were told about Ikuko's background would be a lie.
2) You'd need to assume Tohya didn't recognize her (after regaining his memory), or that (again) we've been lied about their relationship.
3) The scene of Ikuko finding Battler would also be a lie.
4) You need to assume that Yasu somehow managed to get a fake identity and registered herself as Hachijo Ikuko, and that no one ever noticed for years.
5) You need to assume that Ryuukishi is an asshole for making it look like a "tragic love" while in fact "they lived happily ever after".
EDIT: I forgot:
6) You'd need to ignore all the hints about Yasu wanting to die, which would make her actions even less justifiable.
__________________


Last edited by Jan-Poo; 2011-09-05 at 23:02.
Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 22:46   Link #24232
haguruma
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Germany
Age: 30
Send a message via ICQ to haguruma Send a message via MSN to haguruma
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Well, basically I don't dismiss Kakera Theory outright; I just think RK07 allowed for it. However, Kakera Theory has a certain level of friction with Author Theory, so I try not to mix them.

And even if it's all made up, it doesn't mean that it isn't important, especially if you think in terms of it as a fiction that includes messages meant for certain people.
I'd rather prefer to use alternate possibilities (not really Kakera as I see it as something sorta different) theory for Ange in this case. It is something she could have imagined for herself while standing up on the skyscraper.

If it were actually a part of the stories it would make her journey largely irrelevant and also highly speculative. The chance that, while he never met with Ange, Tya would actually be able to guess so much that both his stories and the life of the real Ange end with Kotobuki Yukari is so unlikely.
Everything he writes about Rokkenjima has already happened and is at least based on shards of memories that he actually possesses, but a fictional Ange has no necessity to bear any resemblance to a real Ange. She might as well have forgotten her brother or outright hated him for not being with her enough. All his writing would be made on the basis of some few times they met during her childhood which he probably isn't even able to recall clearly from what is left of Battler's memory. At the same time a quasi-parallel release/happening of the events Ange's life/Tya's stories seems quite farfetched as well. A book needs maybe not that much to be written, but to be released and Ange's journey is depicted to have lasted only some days after Eva's death. So if Tya actually wanted to give her a message because he feared for her safety, a book that takes month to hit the market is maybe not the safest bet.
So we would have to bet on the fact that Ange's life actually ocurred without any signs of apparent danger and she went straight towards becoming Kotobuki Yukari...but then what would the reason be for Tya to include such a story in his books?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
What pre-existing reputation? Am I forgetting something? Iirc she said she submitted one thing to a publishing company once and was rejected, and that's it.

And who says it was 24 hours? Iirc there was no indication of how much time passed between October 6th, 1986 and Touya and Ikuko's meeting.
She at least had a wealthy father and some reputation on the internet as far as I know. Also she was in the midst of researching a novel when she came upon a website about the Rokkenjima incident together with Tya. Why would she be researching the islands history if she was actually the one who was behind it? And if she actually loved Battler why would she let Tya torment himself over the events of 1986?
Ikuko=Yasu just doesn't make much sense when it comes to how either was developed as a character. It would call for Ikuko's behaviour being all charade and lies and for Yasu to actually be a pretty spiteful, villainous bitch.
haguruma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-05, 23:21   Link #24233
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
He didn't. He found the bottle a few years after the incident and promptly told the world about his finding.
How do we have any way of knowing that? If you're seriously just going to say "one sentence says so," well whoopdy-shit. That thing could've come from anywhere.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 01:58   Link #24234
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
Quote:
And who says it was 24 hours? Iirc there was no indication of how much time passed between October 6th, 1986 and Touya and Ikuko's meeting.
Certainly not enough to age enough years to be unrecognizable and to have an entire established life and an estate's worth of property. And why doesn't she recognize Battler or remember anything about Rokkenjima? Did she get amnesia too?
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 02:41   Link #24235
Kylon99
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
I remember Tooya saying that the only thing he remembered was that he was 18 to Ikuko. And thus he took on the name Tooya (18). So it's reasonable to expect that he was still 18, or around an age that can be mistaken for 18, at the very least since nothing was really mentioned after that. (You'd expect Ikuko to mention something about not really being 18 anymore... or he would himself once he looked in a mirror.)

So it's as Aura says, he can't really be unrecognizable at that point. You'd have to make up a whole new story to explain it...
Kylon99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 02:51   Link #24236
Kylon99
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Well, basically I don't dismiss Kakera Theory outright; I just think RK07 allowed for it. However, Kakera Theory has a certain level of friction with Author Theory, so I try not to mix them.
By the way, I was meaning to say this several pages back, but it came up again, luckily...

While most of the story does conform to Author Theory, especially the end when it's revealed that Battler/Tooya wrote episodes 3-6... there were a few characters that escaped this...

Namely in the final scene with Featherine, Lambdadelta and Bernkastel. Or just Lambdadelta or Bernkastel. I don't remember and I'm too laz--busy to go check.

But basically the last lines of the game where they promise to meet again in the next -no naku koro ni game... While this isn't exactly a kakera they're talking about, this part transcends the Umineko universe. It's like yet another layer on top; the Naku-Koro-Ni Layer...



Edit:
And if they show up in Higanbana no Saku Yoru ni... then.. what's the remaining common word that we can use... "Ni?" The Ni Layer? Hmmm...

Double Edit:
Although if Battler admitting to Higurashi being a book in the Umineko universe is true, then it can be explained as that Tooya appropriated the Bernkastel character at the least and possibly created Featherine and LD as cariactures of Higurashi characters... etc, etc.
Kylon99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 03:48   Link #24237
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
Pantheistic Solipsism. All worlds are true by virtue of being imagined.
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 06:17   Link #24238
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
While most of the story does conform to Author Theory, especially the end when it's revealed that Battler/Tooya wrote episodes 3-6... there were a few characters that escaped this...

Namely in the final scene with Featherine, Lambdadelta and Bernkastel. Or just Lambdadelta or Bernkastel. I don't remember and I'm too laz--busy to go check.
Lambda and Bernkastel I think of as purely meta-characters. Since they metaphorically represent determination and probability, respectively, they are naturally present forces to be found in the fabric of everything. Someone like Beatrice, on the other hand, is confined to Rokkenjima-related things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
But basically the last lines of the game where they promise to meet again in the next -no naku koro ni game... While this isn't exactly a kakera they're talking about, this part transcends the Umineko universe. It's like yet another layer on top; the Naku-Koro-Ni Layer...
This not as complicated as you're trying to make it. It's just "Breaking the forth wall."

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Certainly not enough to age enough years to be unrecognizable and to have an entire established life and an estate's worth of property. And why doesn't she recognize Battler or remember anything about Rokkenjima? Did she get amnesia too?
No amnesia. She knows full well that it's Battler. And establishing a life would be easy with the money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
I'd rather prefer to use alternate possibilities (not really Kakera as I see it as something sorta different) theory for Ange in this case. It is something she could have imagined for herself while standing up on the skyscraper.
Then I'd classify it as in-Ange's-head meta. But if she's just imagining it, then any "new" information she learns is meaningless, right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
If it were actually a part of the stories it would make her journey largely irrelevant and also highly speculative. The chance that, while he never met with Ange, Ta would actually be able to guess so much that both his stories and the life of the real Ange end with Kotobuki Yukari is so unlikely.
Everything he writes about Rokkenjima has already happened and is at least based on shards of memories that he actually possesses, but a fictional Ange has no necessity to bear any resemblance to a real Ange. She might as well have forgotten her brother or outright hated him for not being with her enough. All his writing would be made on the basis of some few times they met during her childhood which he probably isn't even able to recall clearly from what is left of Battler's memory. At the same time a quasi-parallel release/happening of the events Ange's life/Ta's stories seems quite farfetched as well. A book needs maybe not that much to be written, but to be released and Ange's journey is depicted to have lasted only some days after Eva's death. So if Ta actually wanted to give her a message because he feared for her safety, a book that takes month to hit the market is maybe not the safest bet.
So we would have to bet on the fact that Ange's life actually ocurred without any signs of apparent danger and she went straight towards becoming Kotobuki Yukari...but then what would the reason be for Ta to include such a story in his books?
It's emotionally relevant. It's what Touya fears she's doing, or has already done. It is speculative and so what? The main novels are speculative too, although perhaps not to the same extent. It's about how Touya feels about abandoning Ange and then her disappearing. The "book" is released on the Internet. And he just doesn't know whether Ange became Yukari, died, or anything in between, so if he wants to send a message he may as well try, since there's no harm in it otherwise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
She at least had a wealthy father and some reputation on the internet as far as I know. Also she was in the midst of researching a novel when she came upon a website about the Rokkenjima incident together with Ta. Why would she be researching the islands history if she was actually the one who was behind it? And if she actually loved Battler why would she let Ta torment himself over the events of 1986?
You're getting details wrong. She was supposedly a black sheep from a wealthy family; nothing is mentioned of her father. I don't know what this reputation on the Internet you're talking about is since not only was it not mentioned, but the Internet wasn't really in common use until the mid-90s. And iirc correctly her looking into the Rokkenjima incident had nothing to do with researching a novel. In any case, researching the island is also something she would do because she was involved with it; she would want to know what people thought about it, especially if she wrote Legend and Turn. I'm not certain about why she helped/hindered Touya remember 1986, but maybe because she was troubled herself about what was the right thing to do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
It would call for Ikuko's behaviour being all charade and lies and for Yasu to actually be a pretty spiteful, villainous bitch.
Wow. No love, huh?

Yasu/Ikuko keeps the truth from Touya to protect him. Legend and Turn serve a similar function.

If she survived, and wrote the stories after the event, then Yasu appears a lot more sympathetic to me. If she wrote the stories beforehand, then she knew something bad would happen but didn't do anything to stop it. Unless of course she was the culprit herself, which is even worse.

Yasu gave the siblings a chance to obtain the gold, and they succeeded. She never had any plan to kill anyone, or get anyone to kill anyone else. However, somehow the siblings started killing each other over the gold with Kyrie and Rudolf as the primary culprits. Battler and Yasu escaped through the submarine tunnel, but they somehow got separated (perhaps because Battler was alone on the motorboat, and Yasu stayed behind). Battler's memories are fuzzy because of the trauma of the experience and in particular because his parents were the culprits.

After the incident, Yasu was vastly wealthy (Yasu had several years with access to the gold, and Gensawajo to help her turn a lot of it into cash; or maybe the gold wasn't even destroyed). Using her vast wealth Yasu obtained a mansion and a cover identity and decided to live her life in seclusion writing novels. To protect the people she loved, at some point Yasu/Ikuko decided to take the blame (hence the name Yasu) by trying to make it look like Beatrice did it. Yasu wrote Legend and Turn, bribed a couple key people to construct the legend of the witch (it wouldn't take many). When Yasu and Battler reunited some time later as Touya and Ikuko, Ikuko saw that Touya had lost his memories. She wasn't sure if it was for the best that he regain them.


Quote:
Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Ikuko=Yasu just doesn't make much sense when it comes to how either was developed as a character.
Really? We already have:
Yasu=Shannon=Kanon=Beatrice=Claire
...but adding Ikuko is a no-no?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Because...
1) Everything we were told about Ikuko's background would be a lie.
Well, she lied!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
2) You'd need to assume Tohya didn't recognize her (after regaining his memory), or that (again) we've been lied about their relationship.
You don't need to assume this at all, since we're never shown what happens immediately after Touya regains Battler's memories.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
3) The scene of Ikuko finding Battler would also be a lie.
This part is weird. But it's weird however you slice it. How the hell did Battler end up from a motorboat to being collapsed and immobile in the middle of a street, and without memories? They supposed a traffic accident, but...? Ikuko had no social life and had servants for errands, so what was Ikuko doing out driving (alone?)? Where were they; what was that garden Ikuko was talking about (did I miss something in the Japanese)? And why did Ikuko bribe the doctor to keep Touya from the hospital when she found him? And why did she give him her surname after talking with him but for a few minutes?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
4) You need to assume that Yasu somehow managed to get a fake identity and registered herself as Hachijo Ikuko, and that no one ever noticed for years.
With money this is easy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
5) You need to assume that Ryuukishi is an asshole for making it look like a "tragic love" while in fact "they lived happily ever after".
Ryuukishi is an asshole. Actually, it makes the answer "happily ever after" for those who figure it out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
6) You'd need to ignore all the hints about Yasu wanting to die, which would make her actions even less justifiable.
What hints?

------------------------------------------------------

Think about all the reasons to think Ikuko is Yasu.
  • She likes mystery novels.
  • She has no friends or visitors. Not even by family members.
  • She doesn't have interest in marriage.
  • She refuses to follow the doctor's advice and take Touya to the hospital when she first finds him.
  • She has a natural liking for Touya for no clear reason, who noticed right away she was happy to have him.
  • She gives him a name (her family name) within minutes after talking to him for the first time.
  • She seems to have no sexual interest in Touya.
  • She's vague about her family.
  • Touya really knows next to nothing about anything; he says he doesn't even know the name of the town they live in.
  • And Jesus Christ, her name being readable as 19 is a dead givaway. It's like Ryuushiki screaming on the top of his lungs, "Hey, idiots, she's Yasu!"

Reasons she might not be:
  • She'd be lying about her life.
  • She'd have apparently got her new life well set up in a relatively short period of time.
  • She was surprised that Touya might think she's only 18 years old.
  • She picked an odd time and way to bring up the Rokkenjima incident.
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 06:34   Link #24239
Cao Ni Ma
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Well if RK is to be believed, the numbers in names was used to misdirect. At least when it came to Shannon's and Kanon's real names, he mentions the reason why he chose them wasnt really the numbers. Who's to say he isnt doing it here as well?

But yeah, she could be anyone. Yasu or any of the other females in Rokkenjima or someone else completely unrelated to the incident. Dont think we can say with 100% certainty in this case.
Cao Ni Ma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2011-09-06, 08:21   Link #24240
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
How do we have any way of knowing that? If you're seriously just going to say "one sentence says so," well whoopdy-shit. That thing could've come from anywhere.
How do we have any way of knowing ANYTHING? Why do you trust that they found Maria's piece of jaw then? Why do you trust that the messages exist at all?

I simply go by the assumption that something is the truth unless there is a reason to think it isn't. And that's what I usually go with in the real world. And I think everyone does. If someone who you have never met tells you that he is 30 years old and it seems plausible he is, why would you distrust him and think "hey maybe he's actually 31"?

The main problem here is that you think a fisherman finding that message bottle years after the incident is implausible while I do not.

Quote:
You don't need to assume this at all, since we're never shown what happens immediately after Touya regains Battler's memories.
We know that he tried to kill himself. Was that also a lie? "Oh I just regained my memories and realized that Ikuko is actually Beatrice! Life sucks, I'm gonna kill myself!"

Quote:
This part is weird. But it's weird however you slice it. How the hell did Battler end up from a motorboat to being collapsed and immobile in the middle of a street, and without memories? They supposed a traffic accident, but...? Ikuko had no social life and had servants for errands, so what was Ikuko doing out driving (alone?)? Where were they; what was that garden Ikuko was talking about (did I miss something in the Japanese)? And why did Ikuko bribe the doctor to keep Touya from the hospital when she found him? And why did she give him her surname after talking with him but for a few minutes?
I think the "garden" was just a common site on the border of a street. Ikuko was being sarcastic. I think it's implied she wasn't alone but she had a servant driving for her. Ikuko wasn't a complete Hikikomori and she probably had to talk with her father and other family members.
Ikuko is a very weird person. But her weirdness is completely diffrent from Beatrice's.

Quote:
With money this is easy.
You are making a huge assumption here. What factual proof do you have that it's easy? Can you show me a case where a person in a first world country managed to buy a new identity and got away with that for decades while being the owner of a large villa, and a famous writer?

Quote:
What hints?

Confirmed in EP7 when Yasu screams to Nanjo and Genji
And then "please kill me", and then Shannon is confirmed to kill herself in EP2 and EP4. And then the bank accounts were sent one day before the incident with a redundant way to make the letters arrive much later (why not sending them after?). And then EP8 Beatrice yet again kills herself.
Those might be meta for the most part, but that doesn't mean they aren't hints.
And remember that Yasu wrote those stories as a preparation for what she wanted to do in the real world. If in the stories she kills herself, then that's what she planned to do.

Quote:
She likes mystery novels.
Are Battler, Kumasawa, Erika and Yasu the same person?
Quote:
She has no friends or visitors. Not even by family members.
She has visitors, as seen in EP8.
Quote:
She doesn't have interest in marriage.
And Yasu didn't?
Quote:
She has a natural liking for Touya for no clear reason, who noticed right away she was happy to have him.
a lot of people seem to have a natural liking for Battler.
Quote:
She gives him a name (her family name) within minutes after talking to him for the first time.
Again, why Yasu would do that, if it wasn't her real family name? Why you suddenly trust that that scene is real while dismissing as lie all the rest?
Quote:
She seems to have no sexual interest in Touya.
Are you suuure?
Quote:
Touya really knows next to nothing about anything; he says he doesn't even know the name of the town they live in.
when..?
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 16:12.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2015, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.