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Old 2011-09-06, 18:22   Link #24261
Sherringford
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Theres a book named "Who Killed Roger Ackroyd" that tries to do just that.

e- In fact, its conclusion is early similar to a possible interpretation in this series.
The book in question is quite silly, if I remember correctly. Most of the arguments against the solution are psychological and frankly aren't very scientific. Questioning the solution in a mystery book due to it being improbable is frankly quite silly.

For example, Benson Murder Case by Van Dine focuses around a deduction the detective makes about ballistics. Now, while that was reasonable when the book came out, it has been proved that the deduction was impossible. I'll save the forensics lecture for later. Do we blame the author for not being able to see into the future? Not really. Is the novel unsolvable? Of course not. We just have to remember it was written with the mindset that the world worked in a certain way, a way from a century ago, a way the detective constantly reminds us of. With that mindset, the novel is not only solvable, but extremely easy. It's one of the most transparent plots in the Golden Age.

I'm dead serious, it's really easy to solve.

From that, I just go with the assumption that a detective story is set within its own world and that it is the detective's job to serve as our conductor and tell us how the world is supposed to function. "In this world, aristocrats always have more than 1 pair of shoes" sounds like an unreasonable declaration, but if it's an idea introduced by the detective, it sounds reasonable.

I vaguely recall Ryuukishi himself expressing a similar point of view in his most recent interview(if someone can find a link to that I'd appreciate it) where he talks about why the rain isn't important.

Now, that's not to say the detective can simply introduce the reader to a world where people are idiots or where the author doesn't have to put any effort into writing a convincing story, but there are always going to be differences in how people perceive "probable" and human nature, so a conductor is necessary. I don't agree with the way the author handled rain because I think that stretches from probable and variations in human nature to simply ignoring natural laws, which is a bit beyond the authority a mystery writer should have.

So, that said, I don't particularly agree with Ryuukishi's decision to portray the bottle as being written before the incident actually happened. It's clumsy, makes no sense, and there's little indicator as to how it could have worked. However, per his own admission, he operates assumption that if something is the author's intention, then it's fine to accept an unlikely event as normal if characters in the story don't question it. So the characters' stupidity is our clue to just roll with it, however unlikely it is.

Now, that's another point I think Umineko would have benefited from a detective. It's much easier to roll with the unlikely if a competent detective is telling you to do so than when random characters are just acting in less than competent ways.

That said, I'm for the bottles having been written before the incident, under the assumption that Umineko's world works in a way where that is possible.

That's more or less my long-winded way of saying "Ryuukishi didn't really think that point that much, so the answer is not without holes, but I prefer getting the author's faulty solution rather than a wishful better solution."
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Old 2011-09-06, 18:37   Link #24262
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Nazis in Brazil? Maybe late 40's Brazil wasn't "1st world", but unlike the Nazis, Yasu's not on some famous list of war criminals, nor does she have any record at all for that matter.
You have too much faith in the government's interest to keep track of the private lives of private people. And after becoming famous, anyone looking into her private life wouldn't find anything because... it's private.
As long as she pays her taxes the government is going to stay out of her business. And all the more so if she's rich and paying a lot of taxes. And even more so if she's a famous writer who is a cultural and economic asset to the country. Why would the government mess with that? The Japanese government especially would turn a blind eye to something like this.
The only hard part is getting the documentation to begin with.
Not just Nazi in Brasil. Criminals can buy fake identities but also criminals can sell fake identities to people with enough money, people can steal identities using some tricks (I've heard of people stealing the identity of dead people or even worse of living people using some tricks... and causing quite a bunch of problems to the living ones)

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there never were any such bank notes sent.
I agree!

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Of course not. For one, Erika is not even a person and Kumasawa is no coincidence because she's the one who got Yasu into them. The whole point of my argument is that mystery stories are the signature hobby that Battler and Yasu had in common, and coincidentally the same signature hobby that Touya and Ikuko have in common.
Technically, but very few. The observation that she has no visitors is something Touya made himself in his inner monologue describing their life there.
That's a good point. I was thinking that it was because Ikuko would have learned from Shannon's experience, but yeah that's not really a hint; it's a just a plausible explanation.
And how many of them liked him so much they adopted him after only talking with him a couple minutes? Let's review their meeting:
  • Ikuko nearly runs over some guy she'd never seen before randomly lying down in the middle of the road.
  • He's injured, but instead of calling 110 or taking him to a hospital, she takes him home and calls for a private doctor to come to her house.
  • The doctor says the man is physically alright, but that he should go to a hospital. Ikuko says no, and bribes the doctor to keep his mouth shut.
  • The man wakes up and Ikuko asks a few questions about him. All he can remember is 18. With just that, Ikuko decides to name him Hachijou Touya.
Now, giving him a first name of some kind is understandable since it's inconvenient if he doesn't have something to be called by. But, by keeping him a secret and also giving him her family name she's immediately showing a complete disregard for any ties in his previous life and an inexplicable desire to integrate a stranger into hers. If he's some random stranger, wouldn't it be normal to think he has a family worried about him? And she's actively preventing that family from finding anything.

So, whether you think Ikuko is Yasu or not, she is manipulative, and for some reason wants Touya for herself right from the get-go.
I agree again!

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
And why does it matter so much that it's not her "real" family name? I doubt she had much attachment to "Yasuda"; in fact it she probably wanted to lose that name asap.
Of course not, hence the word "seem". Their relationship seemed entirely platonic. Is there a reason to believe otherwise?
During Touya's inner monologue describing his days with Ikuko in the mansion.
I wonder if it could be Beatrice's new family name. Kinzo hid the first Beatrice. It's possible he also bought her a new shiny identity, or just gave her a fake surname. Maybe he didn't have the time to make all the documents but Yasu might have felt like using it.

I guess this is just overthinking though...
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Old 2011-09-06, 18:46   Link #24263
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Well, you dont even need to bribe anyone, if the government wanted to hide something they did then they can influence the police to look the other way or alter evidence if needed.

Lets see this particular train of though: Ok, Ive written myself into a corner here. The only way this can end is with a bomb that wipes everything up. But wait, buying the materials for such a bomb and transporting them to rokkenjima is too much of a stretch, would leave to much paperwork and trigger too many flags. Ok lets make it so the bomb or the material for them where already in Rokkenjima, I can use the story that Kinzo was in the military to tie things up.

This brings a problem and I dont know if RK07 was aware of it. Why would the government sell an island that was once a military outpost full of explosives to a man with mental issues? There is circumstantial evidence that could go two ways, either they where oblivious to it or they where fully aware of it.

If they where oblivious then fine, story goes on like normal. If they where aware though then we can dig some more, we can interpret their desire to buy back Rokkenjima as a way to take control of the liability. We can interpret the constant denial of permits for the beach resort as a way to pressure them or as a way to protect civilians/their image if the island does end up exploding. The explosive residue that they should have detected in the scene not showing up anywhere, no corpses, no evidence. "Hey Eva, we wont do anything to you if you just shut up and dont tell anyone OK?" "OK" I also have a feeling that if the letters where written by "Ushiromiya Battler" the police would have found his jaw in the island in the second sweep after the public outcry.
The idea the government might have some interests in covering everything up is interesting. Wasn't it said somewhere Kinzo had ties with important people? I do wonder how important they were. And it seems Kinzo, Genji and Krauss could turn the gold into money... this too calls for ties with important people.

And yes, it's interesting how Maria's death could be confirmed. It's the only death we've confirmed for sure. Nothing is said about the others. Was Maria the only one for which they could confirm the death? Or this confirmation was fake?

It would be interesting because Battler's death couldn't be confirmed for sure.
So, if he was the only one whose death couldn't be confirmed the police should have searched for him for quite a bit in hope he too, like Eva, found a way to escape to the incident... which would make even harder to keep hidden the fact that Toya was Battler if someone were to see him.
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Old 2011-09-06, 18:53   Link #24264
Dirty_Harry
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If Yasu = Ikuko, this implies that Yasu has two representations in the meta-world? Featherine and Beatrice. Moetrice even know Featherine in EP 6.

Meta-scenes in EP 8 would make little sense, since Featherine help Bernkastel against Battler and Beatrice. Much of EP 8 besides being pointless would be for nothing.
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Old 2011-09-06, 18:53   Link #24265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherringford View Post
I vaguely recall Ryuukishi himself expressing a similar point of view in his most recent interview(if someone can find a link to that I'd appreciate it) where he talks about why the rain isn't important.
I posted it on my blog back when I translated it. I definitely need to rework some parts once I've got some freetime, but right now I'm too busy to rewrite all that.

Quote:
That said, I'm for the bottles having been written before the incident, under the assumption that Umineko's world works in a way where that is possible.

That's more or less my long-winded way of saying "Ryuukishi didn't really think that point that much, so the answer is not without holes, but I prefer getting the author's faulty solution rather than a wishful better solution."
And thank you for agreeing with me on that.
I would also never argue for Umineko's solutions to certain problems being all that likely or probable, but sometimes we just have to go with what the author tells us, no matter how improbable it might seem to us.
I also agree that a proper detective character might have helped. Someone who just explained the basic elements of the "logical plane", just like Beatrice and her henchmen explained the magical plane. I can only say it again and again...Virgilius would have greatly helped in that department. Shame on Ryűkishi for scrapping him, as Virgilia ever actually helped in that department besides the cat-box study.

I felt a bit cheated then and again too, when a solution was so farfetched that a reasonable person would discard it right away. But as long as a proper detective or a proper narrator makes it clear that certain things are to be trusted or are working in a certain way in this narrative...then I just need to accept it unless I want to construct my own story.
Ayatsuji Yukito's first Yakata-novel 十角館の殺人 had such a solution. The way the culprit constructed his alibi was way too complicated and somehow downright silly, but once I reread the story, it was the only reasonable and hinted solution.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
The idea the government might have some interests in covering everything up is interesting. Wasn't it said somewhere Kinzo had ties with important people? I do wonder how important they were. And it seems Kinzo, Genji and Krauss could turn the gold into money... this too calls for ties with important people.
The government Kinzô had ties to was not the Japanese government we have today, but the GHQ. The General Headquartes was how the Japanese referred to the office of the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers. This was the office under General McArthur after the US forces had occupied Japan at the end of WW2.
The GHQ was in charge until the peace treaty in 1951 and basically made all decisions. They were pretty oblivious to Japanese customs and many quite illegal things were apparently able to happen right under their eyes, because most of them did not really know how to govern an "Asian country". There are of course many rumours about how many illegal actions were actually happening, but as media was largely censored by the GHQ it's hard to get useful evidence. So Ryűkishi basically hit into a soft spot of history and used it to "make Kinzô able to buy Rokkenjima".

He was characterized as being fluent in English and maybe other foreign languages. Also he didn't seem to be that much of a patriot, so no wonder he was favoured by the US forces, as he was probably seen as a useful informant regarding matters that the US did not understand. Of course this is basically constructed from racial stereotypes...but it's not really that rare to see them depicted as rather easy to fool.

Last edited by haguruma; 2011-09-06 at 19:09.
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Old 2011-09-06, 18:54   Link #24266
jjblue1
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Okay, since the parts about Ikuko and Toya hadn't been translated yet and i've noticed people saying contrasting things is there a kind soul who can read it and that's willing to give us a detailed and correct summary so we all could work it out better?

I know I'm asking a lot but I think it can be a quite interesting point of discussion and it'll work better if we've clear details to work with.
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:15   Link #24267
Wanderer
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Originally Posted by Sherringford View Post
That said, I'm for the bottles having been written before the incident, under the assumption that Umineko's world works in a way where that is possible.

That's more or less my long-winded way of saying "Ryuukishi didn't really think that point that much, so the answer is not without holes, but I prefer getting the author's faulty solution rather than a wishful better solution."
Thank you for articulating this. It is the only way I could accept that the bottles were written pre-incident. But... even with this in mind I'm not certain that Ryuu didn't intend for us to question it.

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Just because no character was ever in a position to question it doesn't mean it should never be questioned, especially when that's one of the themes of the entire work.
Let me support Renall's point here:

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"Bribery plot x" is an example of a way a living person could fabricate the information, and do so in a way which is actually relatively plausible.
Bribery plot x... explains Turn, Legend, Alliance, and maybe even End. So we shouldn't suspect a recurring plot point in the fiction to be relevant to the "real" world because... ?

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
All we learned about the bottle letters is similarly outside knowledge as the information that we gain at the beginning of Matsuribayashi-hen...it is information we have to swallow even though they are a deus ex machina.
Then Ryuukishi shouldn't have made this narrative so fishy. He is the one who planted the seeds of doubt by doing things like describing the bottle-works as "massive" and such.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
For example he couldn't have made us both let Ange learn all these information from the Witch Hunters and the relatives of the dead and make her survive in the story he constructed.
And why not? Ange goes to Rokkenjima, realizes that there's nothing there that will help her move on with her life, comes back safely with a change of heart, and decides to give the company to Okonogi and become an author. Easy-peasy. And all without Kakera/meta/fiction whatever. Everything that happens in this narrative becomes very believable as the only 1998 story we're told.

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I'm not quite thinking it's pure meta but that's close to it.
I may not have been clear. When I call it "purely" meta I mean that it's not something directly experienced by the meta-thinker. I don't mean to exclude the influence of ideas from the outside, like you describe.

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My only doubt would be the whole story about letters and bank accounts.

It can't be public knowledge and my opinion is that the whole thing on Ange's travel is something Toya created in his own mind so, unless Yasu told him she sent the letters, he couldn't know (my idea is that his mind suggested that idea because he remembered there was a bank account with a PIN... as suggested in Ep 7 Tea Party).
Yes.

One thing for certain is that assuming the bank PIN letters were real, either Touya or Ikuko would have to know of that number somehow for it to appear in Banquet. And assuming Ikuko isn't Yasu means that only Touya could know of it. So. How would Touya know this PIN number that ended up in the hands of someone as unrelated to him as Nanjo's son?
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:16   Link #24268
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Originally Posted by Dirty_Harry View Post
If Yasu = Ikuko, this implies that Yasu has two representations in the meta-world? Featherine and Beatrice. Moetrice even know Featherine in EP 6.

Meta-scenes in EP 8 would make little sense, since Featherine help Bernkastel against Battler and Beatrice. Much of EP 8 besides being pointless would be for nothing.
It's no stranger than Shannon and Kanon talking to each other.
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:19   Link #24269
haguruma
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
One thing for certain is that assuming the bank PIN letters were real, either Touya or Ikuko would have to know of that number somehow for it to appear in Banquet. And assuming Ikuko isn't Yasu means that only Touya could know of it. So. How would Touya know this PIN number that ended up in the hands of someone as unrelated to him as Nanjo's son?
There is another solution that is much more reasonable and actually helps in constructing what happened on Rokkenjima: The event that Yasu wrote the code on some wall was actually real.
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:25   Link #24270
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It's no stranger than Shannon and Kanon talking to each other.
A lot more stranger. At least I can not explain much of the meta-world of the EP 8 with this hypothesis. Moreover Featherine and Beatrice are separated by 12 years.
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:40   Link #24271
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A lot more stranger. At least I can not explain much of the meta-world of the EP 8 with this hypothesis. Moreover Featherine and Beatrice are separated by 12 years.
If you're concerned about Ikuko having two representations... Well, she doesn't. With EP6, Beatrice was recreated as Battler's piece, not Yasu's.

I found it really easy to picture the sequence of EP4's tea party through EP6 as the creative product of a huge fight between Tohya and Ikuko, where Ikuko gave up trying to lead Tohya to the truth and he ended up dragging himself there on his own in order to earn her forgiveness.
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:41   Link #24272
Wanderer
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Okay, since the parts about Ikuko and Toya hadn't been translated yet and i've noticed people saying contrasting things is there a kind soul who can read it and that's willing to give us a detailed and correct summary so we all could work it out better?

I know I'm asking a lot but I think it can be a quite interesting point of discussion and it'll work better if we've clear details to work with.
Well, in order not to make a fool out of myself (been known to happen), I skimmed the Touya/Ikuko section last night specifically to make factual verifications before posting, so I'm confident in what I've said, particularly with regard to positive assertions (negative assertions are much harder to verify).

So for example, Touya did say he didn't know the name of the town he lived in.
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Old 2011-09-06, 19:55   Link #24273
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I may not have been clear. When I call it "purely" meta I mean that it's not something directly experienced by the meta-thinker. I don't mean to exclude the influence of ideas from the outside, like you describe.
Ops, okay, sorry for misunderstanding you.

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One thing for certain is that assuming the bank PIN letters were real, either Touya or Ikuko would have to know of that number somehow for it to appear in Banquet. And assuming Ikuko isn't Yasu means that only Touya could know of it. So. How would Touya know this PIN number that ended up in the hands of someone as unrelated to him as Nanjo's son?
Exactly. Surely Nanjo's son wouldn't tell him, especially if he had the feeling it could end up in a story released in the net.

All that money is fishy, and likely the police would end up suspecting Nanjo obtained it in illegal ways, maybe even think Nanjo was connected to the message bottle and therefore to the incident.

I thought that scene was off because actually I think he wouldn't have told Ange either. Ange's family died and she too can think Nanjo actually was connected to the incident and maybe planned to escape though something went wrong and he never managed it.

Ange tells him she's out for the truth, she could have decided to report it to the police and Nanjo's son would have a lot of problems while the media would raise a fuss and throw lot of dirt on Nanjo.

Though, of course, this is just my speculation.
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Old 2011-09-06, 20:09   Link #24274
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
There is another solution that is much more reasonable and actually helps in constructing what happened on Rokkenjima: The event that Yasu wrote the code on some wall was actually real.
You mean that Yasu killed people and then draw a seal with also taht number?

This would imply the following possibilities:

1) Yasu murdered people before the epitaph was solved.
2) Yasu murdered people after the epitaph was solved... which would mean not only she didn't follow what she had decided but that she didn't give to the one/ones who solved the epitaph the PIN or the other info... which would make harder for Eva to know/find out about Kuwadorian and the bomb
3) Yasu murdered people after the epitaph was solved even though she told Eva about the bomb and Kuwadorian... which would mean not only she didn't follow what she had decided but decided to save Eva, who however didn't try to save her family.
4) Yasu didn't murder people before and after someone solved the epitaph... she just wrote that number on the wall for unknown reasons.

Although I personally prefer the 1 because it's the one who makes more sense I think the chances of Yasu inserting that number in a magic circle are low.

Although the number might be important to Yasu, it feels very random and, even if Battler could guess it represented two dates or a PIN as info it would be completely unhelpful to solve the crime (even if he were to know Yasu's birthday I doubt it would fall on that date, nor he could guess Yasu discovered the gold in that day and so Beatrice was reborn), at best it can be a fake hint but still... why to ruin a perfectly good magic circle to insert random numbers? And why Eva takes note of the number but not of the magic circle? My guess is that Battler was there when the gold was discovered and the PIN was given and he 'remembered' Eva writing it down.

Later he remembered/understood it was a PIN and so his mind created the whole thing in Ep 4.
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Old 2011-09-06, 20:12   Link #24275
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
If you're concerned about Ikuko having two representations... Well, she doesn't. With EP6, Beatrice was recreated as Battler's piece, not Yasu's.

I found it really easy to picture the sequence of EP4's tea party through EP6 as the creative product of a huge fight between Tohya and Ikuko, where Ikuko gave up trying to lead Tohya to the truth and he ended up dragging himself there on his own in order to earn her forgiveness.
*nod* I though more or less the same thing (the reason for the argument I thought was slightly different though). I also assumed by Ep 5 they were still kind of sort of arguing and that they made up only by Ep 6.
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Old 2011-09-06, 20:16   Link #24276
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Well, in order not to make a fool out of myself (been known to happen), I skimmed the Touya/Ikuko section last night specifically to make factual verifications before posting, so I'm confident in what I've said, particularly with regard to positive assertions (negative assertions are much harder to verify).

So for example, Touya did say he didn't know the name of the town he lived in.
That's great you did and the you could do it. But since I can't read Japanese I've to rely on what people say and it's a bit harder. Also other people might have read it but not have the chance to check it just now. And anyway this would allow us to consider everything in a more ordered way... but I understand nobody might wish wasting his time making a detailed summary of what happened in those parts.
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Old 2011-09-06, 22:40   Link #24277
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So, I've been thinking about the origin of the bottle-stories and the answer came to me. It's crystal clear. And although I disagree with the conclusion he came to, I have to thank Sherringford for his most recent post; it really got me to stop thinking about needless details and focus on the story that we are being told, as readers.

It's something I think I had realized vaguely for a long time. The important things to look at aren't the exact level of plausibility of uber-fast writing verses bribes and conspiracy etc. Instead, we should focus on the nature of the orchestrator of everything: Beatrice herself.

Let's think about the fictions in which Beatrice was game master: Legend, Turn, Banquet, and Alliance.

Beatrice's goal is to convince Battler and the rest of us that witches are real. How does she do this in her fictions? She gives us seemingly impossible narratives. But are they impossible? We learn as we go through Umineko that everything she has done that seems impossible was actually just a human trick to fool us.

Beatrice is also known for how she likes to leave things to chance. She even asserts this herself. But does she really leave things to chance? Is it chance that determines who Beatrice's "roulette" kills, or is it access? Does Beatrice's "roulette" ever stop on Battler or Maria? Here I will assert that Beatrice doesn't play dice with what matters to her.

So. We all know that Beatrice is the writer of the two bottle-letters. We can all agree that the seeming circumstances behind their creation and their distribution are extraordinary. In fact, it's a nigh impossible narrative created by Beatrice.

Spoiler for And you know what that means:
Beatrice isn't just the writer of the first fictions, she's also the distributor. We should extend her personality to her method of distribution. So... all this shit about mysterious bottle-stories is not some happy accident, but a trick. Beatrice may pretend to make things happen using magic, and she may pretend to do things by chance, but we know better; we know that Beatrice is just a bunch illusions using sneaky human tricks.

It's what Beatrice does. She fools people. She tricks people. She pulls the wool over their eyes whathaveyou. What kinds of tricks does she use to fool people in her fictions? She uses false testimony often gained using bribes. How else does she fool people? How about faking her death? Now think about what all this might be saying about the enigma of Beatrice in the "real" world.

So, basically believing at face value that Yasu wrote the fictions pre-incident means you have been caught in the witch's web of confusion, much like BATTLER was in Turn and Banquet. It might be conceivable that she perhaps could have written the stories pre-incident, but thinking that way misses the point; it's a lot like using explanations like small bombs or dagger-launching ranged weapons to solve Beatrice's closed rooms.

Last edited by Wanderer; 2011-09-07 at 02:57.
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Old 2011-09-06, 23:23   Link #24278
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*facepalm* Holy shit, that's genius. Of course.
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Old 2011-09-07, 02:09   Link #24279
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I forget where, exactly, but I recall this sort of thing coming up a few weeks ago when discussing the plausibility of Ange's absence in the bottles. It kinda came down to people arguing whether they were written pre, during, or post incident.

I will wholeheartedly agree with Wanderer's premise that everything is much cleaner if you believe that the bottles were written after the incident. It solves the issue of Ange's absence, the length of what was written, sorta improves the odds of being found, and potentially allows for the sorts of personal information ("So yeah about your miscarriage...") that might've come up during a tense, explosive-y family conference.

It's awesome, really. You don't even have to account for what happened to Yasu afterwards. Whatever the hell one wants to think.
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Old 2011-09-07, 11:08   Link #24280
Renall
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Well, the whole purpose of the message bottles doesn't really make sense if there is no objective behind it. As we discussed at length back around ep7, it doesn't really seem that she's writing to people in general, but to one person in specific. That is to say, the message bottles, regardless of their professed intention, are more specifically being written for Battler. And possibly also for Ange, I don't know.

But I don't think the goal was to ask random-ass people to find her heart. That sort of public confession might make sense for a crime, but Beatrice's confession of her true nature doesn't really seem like that sort of confession. It seems like, y'know, a romantic confession. That's not the sort of thing you just throw out there to the general masses.

If her objective in creating the message bottles was to reach Battler, then it seems odd that she would (1) not somehow be sure Battler is probably out there somewhere, (2) distribute the messages to perhaps the most important person to her entirely unpredictably and risk them never being found, and (3) not attempt to exercise some manner of control over the popularity of the phenomenon.

Without these three things, the effort is largely fruitless. Without the first one, there's no one to write to. Without the second, there's a chance he'll never see it (and she wants him to see it) or won't see it in time (what if a bottle is discovered 90 years later?). Without the third, it might wind up so obscure that he'd never be exposed to it even if it was located.

Beatrice needs the Witch Hunter legend just as much as she needed the Beatrice Legend while on Rokkenjima itself. If we believe ep7 and many of the TIPS, she worked to cultivate the latter very deliberately so that it would be of use to her. Why not do the same with the former? If you're the original author, cooking up a "lost" message would be trivial, and you can control exactly when it gets "found." Hell, if Yasu were alive, she could drop Land on us out of nowhere if she were so inclined. And Witch Hunters everywhere would authenticate it as "definitely coming from 1986."

Have we even considered an alternative reason why Land was "lost?" Maybe it had nothing to do with vanishing into the ocean, if you follow me.
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Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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