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Old 2011-09-12, 16:30   Link #24361
Ayu-ayu
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Re-reading some of RKs interviews, he keeps mentioning that posting the truth point blank would be rude to the people that reached it. Its one of those lines that he keeps repeating that makes me roll my eyes. I really cant imagine people that wouldn't mind having more closure to the events in Umineko.

Then I started thinking , what if these people aren't real? Maybe he's honoring their wishes instead.
I have to say, when he keeps making it sound like there are several out there who have discovered the full truth, I keep wondering just who these folks are? I've seen lots of compelling theories and partial solutions, but...

I've been kind of thinking lately that the Umineko story is in itself a "linked locked rooms" puzzle.
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Old 2011-09-12, 16:34   Link #24362
Cao Ni Ma
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Originally Posted by Ayu-ayu View Post
I have to say, when he keeps making it sound like there are several out there who have discovered the full truth, I keep wondering just who these folks are? I've seen lots of compelling theories and partial solutions, but...

I've been kind of thinking lately that the Umineko story is in itself a "linked locked rooms" puzzle.
Im pretty sure there where at least 2 people that had a good idea of what happened in Rokkenjima. Eva and Battler.
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Old 2011-09-12, 17:07   Link #24363
Renall
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Sorry you replied before I updated it. There would be written evidence about the weather thanks to the event in Rokkenjima. News would have mentioned something like Eva taking refuge in a building for a day or two while the stormed passed. She had to wait till the boat got there. Meteorological data would have backed up her claim or else she would have been caught in a lie.

The second option is that there was little to no rain, given these conditions fishermen or some others would have seen the smoke and fire from the debris and would have gotten there quicker.
What I'm saying is, we never see any character doubt the rain. We also never see anyone doubt the validity of the message bottles despite the major factual inaccuracy that Eva dies in both of them. Eva's survival is mentioned as an anomaly in the actual text, but doesn't seem to be a big deal. So I doubt the rain being slightly longer or shorter in duration or intensity compared to reality would have even been brought up.

That aside, the weather wouldn't be 100% accurate to an island 30 minutes or so away from the nearest weather recording station (which I presume would be located at Nijima's airport). So if the rain was erratic or fell at a different time or something, the only person post-incident who would ever know if it was wrong would be Eva. Since we don't really know Eva's reaction, it's kind of a mystery.

But, if the weather were slightly different in R-Prime than in the message bottles, it might support more strongly the notion they were written before. If Yasu had to guess when the rain would start (that's something even meteorologists don't get exactly right most of the time), the fact that it was one or two hours off or even entirely off doesn't seem to matter in the face of other things which the Witch Hunters seem ready to accept (such as the message bottles being flat-out wrong about Eva's fate).
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Old 2011-09-12, 17:50   Link #24364
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
You're still talking like there are only two possible weather patterns: That either A) there will be a typhoon that starts on the afternoon of the 4th and ends on the morning of the 6th, or B) that there won't.
I admit I hadn't really developed well what I was thinking (I had just stumbled in that portion of text while reading Ep 1 in search of a completely different thing) so allow me to repraise.

Let's pretend I'm Yasu (I'm in a weird mood tonight), and I don't plan to harm anyone, just to write an innocent mystery tale to have fun or to vent the fact I'm really angry with certain people or just because I hope I'll get the chance to have a certain boy read it and tell me his thought about it and then we'll start a conversation and...

It doesn't really matter which day it is, which year it is as it's a hobby of mine and I've been doing it by ages. To make things simpler let's focus on what I write in 1986. I've no idea which weather there will be in october but I don't really care. I'm not really planning a murder, I'm just writing a tale. I randombly pick up the most common weather I could get around that time. I'm right? That's cool, I'm not? Who cares? I might not even be sure yet a certain red head will come back but that's what I'm hoping so I put him in and I cut from my tale his sister because dealing with such a small kid in a story might be troublesome (actually I've been cutting her from day one because an infant was hard to get in and I'm still cutting her out of habit while I started editing in Maria because, not only she always came but she's also a friend).

Time goes on. I've got a colections of tales some good, some not so good which I keep in my room and I don't plan to use when I heard a certain boy will really come back that day.

Oh joy! But wait, what am I going to do with George? And with the tiny little fact he wants kids but I can't provide him them? Never mention a certain someone kept silent for 6 years...

Here's the plan. When Kinzo was alive the family had a halloween party, right? Now, using my 'I'm actually your master' authority on Genji will have him persuade Natsuhi and Krauss to have a halloween party with a mystery game. The script will be one of my tales. Of course NOBODY IS GOING TO DIE.

Oh but look, how many I've of them!

Now... let's check them and rewrite the ones that are suitable so my accomplices will know what to do. Of course I'll end up editing in details like correcting the weather... and since it's almost the day of the conference I'll better hurry. Incidentally it seems we've bad weather this year too, which is convenient.

Of course I've thought to endless options in all those years but now that the day is almost here I'll pick up just the best ones. Edit, rewrite, done.

Now I could keep the tales (yes, I could have wrote them as a script but I'm used to tales so I kept the same style) in my room so, if 'someone' has the insane or maybe smart idea to check all the house in search of clues he'll find them right in my room or I could get rid of them... and here kicks in my writer complex. I don't really want to toss them away so... why not to play an innocent prank, put them in message bottles and abandone them in the sea before everyone will be here?

Anyway it's not like someone is going to die for real so they aren't compromising or anything...

It's be cool, exactly like 'Ten Little Indians'... after all which sort of consequences it could have?


... and so the bottles were sent.

There's no premeditation of committing a real crime but there's planning of a fake murder. We don't have the original text of the 2 tales so we can't tell how detailed they were. Likely people in the game should have faked their death so there was use of tricks to make people look dead, while in Yasu's original tales likely they were dead for real.

If you want to assume that she sent the message bottles later, the fact that she had already written tales about the murder would still be a big help as it would provide her with experience in writing and many plots that are already ready and possibly different from how things really went, which would insure that, although they would tell a realistic story, they wouldn't cause people to guess what had really happened. The culprit would still be her.

As a sidenote text on many scraps of paper can be edited even if the story is hand written. Here it's something even elementary schoolers do so I can't discharge the possibility completely... though at the moment I don't like it much. I prefer to think she made a more accurate job with the tales because she thought at it as a game between her and Battler so she wanted to make them perfect... though he wasn't really going to read them but to see one of them played out under his eyes.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
It's all nonsense; you're wasting your energies giving it this much consideration. The best answer for non-post-writing is that she wrote 2 or 3 stories in the day or so prior or maybe even overnight between the 5th and 6th.
I don't like to ignore a theory just because it has lows chances.
Also, while you seems to be a firm beliver of the tales being written post the incident, I'm not completely sure so I'm even more prone to consider both options.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
This is an interesting idea. It fits well with the fantasy themes in the stories (assuming they are included in writing), fake deaths (as a Halloween prank), and even the "costumes" Yasu wears. It explains Kanon's presence as just one of Yasu's Halloween games, which the adults humor. There's also the fact that a murder game becoming murder reality did actually happen in both episodes 5 and 6. It also makes sense in interpreting the end of the epitaph where all the souls of the dead are resurrected... because, well, they're not really dead.
Well, I tend to discharge the part that are obvious fantasy but the ones that can be real could have been left in, as the magic circles and the 'happy halloween Maria' or people trying to make other people believe there's really a witch or that something that look like the work of a witch had been done (like the things Battler and Co are being told in Ep 4... Kinzo summoning demons, people disappearing in holes and things like that).

I've another theory for Kanon's existence, as I tie it to other matters but yes, I think the adults believed the whole thing was going to be a game and took part to it. It's possible that on Rokkenjima Prime even the kids believed it was a game at first and things became dramatic only when people started dying for real.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
It explains the phone calls in Alliance fairly well. You also mentioned Yasu using it to make a decision between Battler and George. Well, if you add her two other favorite people: Jessica (her third love interest) and Maria (her best friend), it makes the setup for the cousins' "trials" in Alliance pretty interesting. Although convincing Battler and the cousins (unless they were in on it too) that Kinzo has been killing his own family for some kind of ritual is certainly not my idea of fun.
Well, we see Alliance from Battler's eyes. We don't know how the original Alliance was. It could be in the original Alliance Battler and Co knew it was a game, though it's possible they didn't know either. My guess would be they didn't know and that the siblings agree to it because they thought it was Kinzo's idea, and that he had a twisted sense of humour.

Battler said his grandfather liked to scare people...

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
And there's the fact that everyone died in reality, and that apparently Yasu was the last alive and committed actual suicide in a way that makes it look like she was killed by someone else. Also very strange is how the perpetrator set everything up to present murder scenes to Battler that were logically consistent with the detailed magical narrative told to him earlier "for fun". There's also the problem with "fake" deaths that cannot be easily faked in other stories, such as Turn's first twilight.
Well, I'm assuming the original purpose for the tales was to write a mystery then the tales were adapted to play a prank. It's kind of like making a movie, even though you write chara B dies, he doesn't really. So if the others were faking their own deaths Yasu would have faked her own suicide. Or maybe she would have killed herself if she were to judge Battler's (or George's) replies and behaviour unsactisfatory. So, at best, you would have Yasu's suicide to be real.

Now, it's obvious in truth at best only one of Yasu's tales was played that night. If someone solved the epitaph before the game would end.
Ep 2 could have been hard to play out in a convincing manner so maybe Yasu wrote it but then decided against using it. Or she had in mind something that might help making look dead the people in the first twilight if no one was going to look at them too closely. If it was supposed to be a prank they could have bought lot of halloween gadgets that can help you with this... I saw some pretty scary ones...
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Old 2011-09-12, 18:00   Link #24365
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
People could have back checked the weather of the day and confirmed that it didnt rain 2 days straight in that area so the concept of just raining a few hours would have been shot down and we would have known about it. A storm might not be such an eventful thing, but one that took place during what people though was an unfortunate event that took out nearly all of one the most influential families in the area might be more eventful.
I don't think weather was that accurate in the messages.

At best it could have been something like: 'the weather worsened and it started raining' and that's all. Maybe sometimes it said there was people using umbrella to get out but, as Ryukishi said, in most of Unineko the weather didn't really matter.
Were there in Ep 1 & 2 that many istances in which the weather mattered?
I can only remember the fact that Maria stopped to search her rose when it was about to rain and that Beatrice had to give her her umbrella because it started raining.

Maybe I'm forgetting something but I can't really remember another scene were rain was important so it's possible in the original messages the references to rain stopped here.
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Old 2011-09-12, 18:08   Link #24366
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
On Rokkenjima, around the time of the family conference was usually kept an Halloween party, at least when Kinzo was alive, in which were also made jokes and games.
It is not unlikely for Halloween parties to have been part of the family meeting. Though they are still relatively uncommon in Japan I'd assume that at least Kinz˘ would have been taken in by the Occult Boom of the 1970's, as well as some of his children.
But what I really like about this theory is the inclusion of the Fake Murder Incident (虚言殺人事件) which I'd like to build on:
What if what Yasu actually had planned out for those days was using her stories as a model for a murder mystery game in which Battler was supposed to prove if he remembered her. If he showed no interest at all he wouldn't be the Battler that she fell in love with and she could go her ways and be with George. If he solved it he would have proven how much he still knew her (as many hints still need insight knowledge of her) and it would have been a "sign of God" for her to be with him.
This would actually make an inciting moment to those events like the murder of the servants in EP3 not that unlikely...as it needed no direct involvement of the parents who would probably hold not much interest in staging a play for Battler.
Somebody solved the epitaph and used Yasu's game to actually start killing people, just like Erika did in EP6.

A theory like this would explain how Yasu can still be considered not guilty of the murders if she never intended to commit actual murders. But I still think it has some definitive flaws, like how she managed to stage them in the first place or how the epitaph game and the murder mystery happened parallel to each other.

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Wait, explain this better to poor little me who can't read it. When talking with Ange he used the plural as if to imply he escaped with someone else and then switched to singular? And Ange didn't ask him with whom he escaped the first time he used the plural? Ange might have been interested in this, as it means there could have been the chance someone else from her family might have survived...
Actually Yukari (Ange) doesn't seem to notice this as much (she's probably concerned with other things in that moment. The sequence goes like this:
Spoiler for EP8 ???:


Concerning by the way how this meeting explains certain other things sheds an interesting light on the discussion concering the inclusion of Ange's travels in the forgeries and Ikuko.
At one point Yukari comments: "In the end his memory apparently returned. But at that point I had already advanced to leading my new life as Kotobuki Yukari.". She also says that she should have gotten her brothers message sooner. She solved the riddle behind the penname and that Reigonamu was actually Hachij˘ T˘ya, but when she tried reaching him his editor didn't allow for a meeting to be arranged. So she saw it as God's decision that they weren't destined to meet.
Ikuko also says that she got Yukari's real name from her publisher and because she had already found out about T˘ya being Ushiromiya Battler, she asked him if he didn't wish for a meeting. But it was T˘ya who refused, because he was affraid that he would be forced to become Battler and stop being who he felt he wasn't. Ikuko felt like he owed it to Yukari/Ange somehow, but at the same time she understood how he was afraid to confront her.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Anyway, we actually know only that the weather patterns in the stories are consistent with each other, which is fine. While I'm sure you could verify if they were wrong later, I'd think other factual errors like "Eva being dead" were more obvious than "it probably only rained for about 5 hours, according to the weather service."
It's actually very iteresting when you consider it in the context of how Ryűkishi himself said that rain had no influence on the story. Of course he said that it was because it was more of a logic puzzle...but it's interesting to consider that there wasn't even any immediate need for a terrible typhoon anyway.
The probability of rain in the Izu area around October lies at 25% every day and the chance of at least small typhoons happening then and again is equally high as August to October is the top season for typhoon. Also I found this information lately http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Pa...typhoon_season, which shows that 1986 was a generally active year for typhoons (though of course the one hitting Rokkenjima was fictional).
Yet somehow there was at least the lie created by Genji that the phone lines had been disconnected. Which implies that there had to be measures taken to actually further trap them on the island...like making it impossible to reach Cpt. Kawabata. So you could at least argue that there was no definite need for an actual typhoon of that intensity to hit Rokkenjima.
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Old 2011-09-12, 18:13   Link #24367
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What I'm saying is, we never see any character doubt the rain. We also never see anyone doubt the validity of the message bottles despite the major factual inaccuracy that Eva dies in both of them. Eva's survival is mentioned as an anomaly in the actual text, but doesn't seem to be a big deal. So I doubt the rain being slightly longer or shorter in duration or intensity compared to reality would have even been brought up.

That aside, the weather wouldn't be 100% accurate to an island 30 minutes or so away from the nearest weather recording station (which I presume would be located at Nijima's airport). So if the rain was erratic or fell at a different time or something, the only person post-incident who would ever know if it was wrong would be Eva. Since we don't really know Eva's reaction, it's kind of a mystery.

But, if the weather were slightly different in R-Prime than in the message bottles, it might support more strongly the notion they were written before. If Yasu had to guess when the rain would start (that's something even meteorologists don't get exactly right most of the time), the fact that it was one or two hours off or even entirely off doesn't seem to matter in the face of other things which the Witch Hunters seem ready to accept (such as the message bottles being flat-out wrong about Eva's fate).
LOL You've a point here.

Which makes fun how we're bothering considering the weather when we should consider the fact that Eva was alive and this part wasn't added into the messages.

Sure, it could be to cover Eva up as the messages implied that Eva could have been among the targets for the culprit. The messages however weren't taken seriously by the police, they only raised the interest of a group of occult fans so, if the police were to decide they found evidence X against Eva that's enough to accuse herthe messages would be discharged as a prank, especially if it turned out someone sent them after the incident, or worse, they could be used against Eva if it turns out someone purposely tricked/bribed the police in believing they were sent prior to the incident.

As said in Ep 4 it would have been more easy to believe in the messages if they were realistic (including Eva's survival) and only one.
If they wanted to insure Eva's innocence a message with mysterious murders but 'Maria' giving a version in which Eva couldn't have been the culprit of the first murders and then Maria being forced to part from her because... let's say Rosa too was alive and decided to hide with her daughter in a different place deeming it more secure and being wrong about it would have still worked.
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Old 2011-09-12, 18:19   Link #24368
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
I had a theory long before EP8 came out that such parties could have occurred. Hell, the moment they kicked out the kids off the dining room to talk nasty things about inheritances could have been used to talk about their preparations for said party. It also solves an inconvenient problem, convincing people to willingly go to the storage shed or the chapel or dragging their corpses there. It also would have turned out to be a sweeter twist, the adults weren't really bad people and got killed while they where trying to do a nice thing for Maria and the others.
*nods* I thought at it before Ep 8 as well, then discharged it then picked it up again after Ep 8.


The problem is the explosion.

In fact, unless the prank required Eva to go on Kuwadorian and Yasu to drag Battler on a boat it's hard to figure how they knew an explosion was about to happen and put themselves conveniently out of the bomb's range.

To think they were merely lucky, that no one knew about the explosive or the land slide or the vulcano or whatever distructed Rokkenjima and it was just an incident it's possible but well... it feels a bit unbelievable.

It happens that people end up surviving natural disasters by a coincidence but... I'm going to be disappointed if it was really an incident with no one shooting.

So I tendo to think someone killed someone else... and this makes someone a murder.
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Old 2011-09-12, 18:26   Link #24369
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I'd like to add that in "Jessica and the Killer Electric Fan", Jessica writes a play in which her friend Saku's character is dragged through various horrible experiences because Saku annoyed her and she wanted to vent.
Damn, I completely missed that tale! Thank you for mentioning it, I loved it!
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Old 2011-09-12, 19:03   Link #24370
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
*nods* I thought at it before Ep 8 as well, then discharged it then picked it up again after Ep 8.


The problem is the explosion.

In fact, unless the prank required Eva to go on Kuwadorian and Yasu to drag Battler on a boat it's hard to figure how they knew an explosion was about to happen and put themselves conveniently out of the bomb's range.

To think they were merely lucky, that no one knew about the explosive or the land slide or the vulcano or whatever distructed Rokkenjima and it was just an incident it's possible but well... it feels a bit unbelievable.

It happens that people end up surviving natural disasters by a coincidence but... I'm going to be disappointed if it was really an incident with no one shooting.

So I tendo to think someone killed someone else... and this makes someone a murder.
The point is, the explosion may be unrelated to any murder.

"Soandso set off the bomb to destroy the crime scene after everyone else was (presumed) dead" is an acceptable and even understandable motivation not only for the known survivors, but also for Yasu as a potential survivor and of course for any Surviving Culprit X who wanted to hide their involvement in the crime (if there was any crime, and if any culprit survived, of course, two big ifs).

Under such a scenario, the explosion wouldn't have been intended to kill anyone at all. Of course, this presupposes prior murders.
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Old 2011-09-12, 19:03   Link #24371
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
But what I really like about this theory is the inclusion of the Fake Murder Incident (虚言殺人事件) which I'd like to build on:
What if what Yasu actually had planned out for those days was using her stories as a model for a murder mystery game in which Battler was supposed to prove if he remembered her. If he showed no interest at all he wouldn't be the Battler that she fell in love with and she could go her ways and be with George. If he solved it he would have proven how much he still knew her (as many hints still need insight knowledge of her) and it would have been a "sign of God" for her to be with him.
I like this! It might work rather well and somehow in this way she would have the chance to drop hints about him forgetting a certain promise...

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Somebody solved the epitaph and used Yasu's game to actually start killing people, just like Erika did in EP6.
Exactly what I thought.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
A theory like this would explain how Yasu can still be considered not guilty of the murders if she never intended to commit actual murders. But I still think it has some definitive flaws, like how she managed to stage them in the first place or how the epitaph game and the murder mystery happened parallel to each other.
For staging them I would use the Kinzo theory. Kinzo was said to like making odd pranks that were quite scary for his grandchildren. To the siblings that didn't know Kinzo was dead she let them believe it was his idea. For Natsuhi and Krauss she might have used Genji. They wouldn't probably follow her suggestions but if Genji were to tell them that faking one of the halloween games the master liked would have made the fact that Kinzo was still alive more persuasive and that he wasn't showing around because he was preparing some details for the game or something like that... well, I think Natsuhi and Kinzo would have agreed.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Actually Yukari (Ange) doesn't seem to notice this as much (she's probably concerned with other things in that moment. The sequence goes like this:
Spoiler for EP8 ???:
I love you for the spoiler... and I'd like to strangle Ange for explaining things instead than letting Battler/Toya do it. I would have preferred to read his own version. Oh well, it seems even Ikuko joins the conversation a little too much for my taste...
Okay, okay, I know it's pretty natural for things to progress this way but since this is also a mystery I was more interested in hearing Toya talking... even if Ikuko standing in for him and Ange drawing her own conclusion are pretty natural things...

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Concerning by the way how this meeting explains certain other things sheds an interesting light on the discussion concering the inclusion of Ange's travels in the forgeries and Ikuko.
At one point Yukari comments: "In the end his memory apparently returned. But at that point I had already advanced to leading my new life as Kotobuki Yukari.". She also says that she should have gotten her brothers message sooner. She solved the riddle behind the penname and that Reigonamu was actually Hachij˘ T˘ya, but when she tried reaching him his editor didn't allow for a meeting to be arranged. So she saw it as God's decision that they weren't destined to meet.
Ikuko also says that she got Yukari's real name from her publisher and because she had already found out about T˘ya being Ushiromiya Battler, she asked him if he didn't wish for a meeting. But it was T˘ya who refused, because he was affraid that he would be forced to become Battler and stop being who he felt he wasn't. Ikuko felt like he owed it to Yukari/Ange somehow, but at the same time she understood how he was afraid to confront her.
Thank you also for this too!

Definitely this part is interesting. Oh, I so hope it will be translate soon!

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Yet somehow there was at least the lie created by Genji that the phone lines had been disconnected. Which implies that there had to be measures taken to actually further trap them on the island...like making it impossible to reach Cpt. Kawabata. So you could at least argue that there was no definite need for an actual typhoon of that intensity to hit Rokkenjima.
Well, definitely no matter if what yasu planned was a game or a real serial murder, if Cpt. Kuwabata were to show up on the morning of 5 october people would have left the island giving Yasu a really short time for action.
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Old 2011-09-12, 19:17   Link #24372
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
It's actually very interesting when you consider it in the context of how Ryűkishi himself said that rain had no influence on the story. Of course he said that it was because it was more of a logic puzzle...but it's interesting to consider that there wasn't even any immediate need for a terrible typhoon anyway.
We should be specific here: What RK07 said was that he didn't provide us certain details like whether person was wet when they came in from the outside.

When I first read that, I too had thought before about the possibility that the typhoon itself could be as blatantly false as Eva's death, but we have no particular evidence for this other than the "rain doesn't get people wet" remark. However, rain did have influence on the story (Maria's rose for example). And there is a need for the typhoon: The whole reason that they can't leave until the 6th, which is kinda central to the whole story.
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Old 2011-09-12, 22:05   Link #24373
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Quote:
Somebody solved the epitaph and used Yasu's game to actually start killing people, just like Erika did in EP6.
I like the idea, but what would "if Battler had returned 1 year later or earlier the disaster wouldn't be as horrible" mean?

Edit:
If I remember right it was theorized that this was because yasu would've chosen Battler if he returned earlier and would've give him up if he returned a year later, though that has nothing to do with anyone hijacking the party. Why would it matter what year he returned then?
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Old 2011-09-12, 23:32   Link #24374
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Because she wouldn't of held the murder mystery game if he didn't come back, and if the game wasn't held, no one can use it as a coverup for their crimes.
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Old 2011-09-13, 08:38   Link #24375
Renall
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
When I first read that, I too had thought before about the possibility that the typhoon itself could be as blatantly false as Eva's death, but we have no particular evidence for this other than the "rain doesn't get people wet" remark. However, rain did have influence on the story (Maria's rose for example). And there is a need for the typhoon: The whole reason that they can't leave until the 6th, which is kinda central to the whole story.
Actually, it doesn't matter whether it was raining on Rokkenjima at all. The place where the weather actually matters is Nijima, because the only person who controls whether somebody comes to pick them up is Captain Kawabata.

He even says in ep4 that he considered going out anyway on the morning of the 5th to pick everyone up, but decided against it because of the weather. So it seems like two things can be verified from this:
  • Wherever Kawabata was, he judged the weather was probably too bad to sail in, but not so bad that sailing would be impossible (he says he could have come on the 5th).
  • No one ever called Kawabata to come early. If the phones or radio actually were working, why didn't they? If they weren't working, what happened to them?
So we at least know there must have been a storm, otherwise Kawabata would've come on Sunday as he usually tried to do. We also know it wasn't some apocalyptic storm, because Kawabata could have come if he really tried to, but decided to hold off (as he'd apparently done a few times before when it was stormy). Finally, we know he had no contact with anyone on the island from the time he left on the morning of the 4th to the time he showed up to the island on the morning of the 6th, at least none he'll admit to.

The main things of interest here are that nobody called (which is odd no matter what scenario you dream up), and perhaps more interesting to me, unless Kawabata is lying, nobody had any control over his actions.

Think about this from the perspective of Yasu-as-murderer with plans to detonate the bomb on the night of the 5th/6th. Assume Kawabata is telling the truth, and he could've come on the 5th if he really wanted to. What would've happened if he had? How could she have prevented it? Kawabata never mentions he couldn't come, just that he decided not to. His boat wasn't broken or anything like you'd think somebody would try to do if they absolutely didn't want him showing up.
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Old 2011-09-13, 09:05   Link #24376
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There is another fact that implies the typhoon was real. Erika Furudo is a person that really existed and that was sailing in a pleasure boat on that day. She never returned and everyone assumed she died because it was simply crazy to sail on those conditions.

It was only several years later after the witch hunt phenomenon exploded that someone suggested she somehow drifted to Rokkenjima.

Given all that I think it is very improbable that the typhoon is a lie.
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Old 2011-09-13, 09:41   Link #24377
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It's obviously not a lie, but I am curious whether the message bottle stories accurately describe the weather of that day or not. If they don't exactly match, it supports being written before or during (as Yasu would know specifically when the rain started, but not when it was going to end). If they're remarkably accurate, however, it seems unlikely someone could just guess it right.
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Old 2011-09-13, 10:09   Link #24378
Jan-Poo
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Well I guess no one can confirm how accurate is the description of the weather on Rokkenjima, but I guess it should be logically pretty similar to what people on Niijima experienced.

Anyway I don't think anyone said that it was accurate nor I've seen anyone wondering how could the writer guess it so precisely.
So maybe it wasn't precise at all, or maybe it was and it was just a huge coincidence. You can't put that past Ryuukishi, he did worse in Higurashi for what concerns crazy coincidences.

The idea that those stories were written during those two days is however the least probable.
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Old 2011-09-13, 11:07   Link #24379
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The idea that those stories were written during those two days is however the least probable.
What specifically leads you to this conclusion?
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Old 2011-09-13, 11:44   Link #24380
Jan-Poo
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Because the amount of writing was massive and we are talking about at least two stories, if not three stories. I don't think there was any reason nor any justifiable reason for Ryuukishi to lie about that. If Ootsuki said that the amount of writing was massive it means it was, whether that scene actually happened or not.

It is also hinted that a lot of stuff happened during those two days and I don't think anyone could simply nonchlantly write two/three stories in the middle of it.

I remember Stephen King saying that 10 pages a day is a lot, and he is one of the most prolific writers of our time.


You could still suppose that Beatrice left a few blanc spaces in advance that she could fill later. But that's hard to do without making it obvious. If it was made with a pc and a printer it would be a different story...
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