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Old 2011-09-25, 06:25   Link #24561
Cao Ni Ma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dlanor .A. Nox View Post
It could explain Jessica's phone CALL. In episode 4 that IS.
We can use binary opposition to reach a possible answer to a lot of the scenes in Umineko. For example in this case the options are:

She was Unwilling - Coercion
She was Willing- Game/crime

If she was willing then we there are two possible options, it depends on whether or not we think she is culpable in something. If shes innocent then we can assume a game, if she's guilty then its a crime. Another thing we could deconstruct in that scene was whether or not she was alive at the time of the call.

I think we've all used this simple method at one point or another in the story, it will most often than not lead to the right answer. It was up to you to pick which one you believed in though and thats where you could get it wrong. The thing is that at the very least you considered the possibility and discarded it for whichever personal biases you might have had.

Another thing we could try to do is to find any metaphorical meaning to the fantasy scenes in regard to the story. For example in EP4 the cousin's choice scene. Does it have a meaning? Here's how I interpreted it:

3 choices. Your life, Your lovers life, Or everyone else's life. If you want to stay with your lover then you need to turn your back against your family and vice versa. Of course if this choice is too difficult you can just kill yourself. Jessica and Gorge both picked the hidden option, try to fight this fate. Of course that was useless so we can probably assume that doing that in a real setting would be useless as well. So which option would "Kinzo" in this case prefer?
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Old 2011-09-25, 11:32   Link #24562
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As to what Kylon was talking about, this is actually discussed using the Raven Paradox. Scientifically, someone comes up with a theory and then someone sets out to disprove it. But we aren't scientists (well, that presumption may not necessarily be true) and it is therefore not our obligation to use such methods if they become unproductive to our reaching a truth that we are satisfied with. This is an oversimplification, but my point is what matters.

(There was a small article on NewScientist about how some people at a university used an anonymous forum, and each day the mod would sum up anything useful from that day for the topic for the next day; several of the most useful responses were posted by people who didn't post as much).
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Old 2011-09-25, 12:28   Link #24563
jjblue1
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More random theories about Rokkenjima Prime. Along them I'll mention the ones I already talked about in this post so as to have a more streamlined narrative, though I will cut explanations since I've already talked about them in that previous post.

On Rokenjima Prime in 1986 Kinzo was dead probably by at least a year.

All the games that aren't AU (Ep 7 first part and Ep 8) have this as a truth... I assume it's a truth also for the real world.

Around the time of Kinzo's death Yasu solved the epitaph and became the owner of the gold and the rightful successor to Kinzo.

Will said to carry on her plan Yasu needed to own the gold.

After Kinzo's death his body was hidden (probably buried) but his ring didn't follow the same fate but likely ended up in Yasu's hands.

Keeping around a corpse is not the best idea as it tends to decompose and get rather smelly. If it was burned, it would generate a rather intense smell so, unless Krauss and Natsuhi had gotten rid of all the servants for quite a while, this wouldn't be a recommended solution. Tossing it in the sea would bring the risk of Kinzo's body being carried by waves on land... if by chance one were to recognize Kinzo because he wasn't decomposed enough or by other means it would prove to be a problem for Krauss and Natsuhi. Buring him (possibly in the forest where no one goes) would be safe enough.
Natsuhi and Krauss probably wouldn't have removed the ring, or it would have looked suspicious if someone were to discover it was in their hands.
On the other side, if Kinzo's body was hidden/buried by the servants due to Krauss & Natsuhi's orders, Yasu could have taken the ring.
Also, it's possible when he died Kinzo already didn't have the ring and Natsuhi and Krauss didn't notice and merely ordered the servants to dress Kinzo before hiding/burying him (in Ep 5 we see Natsuhi and Krauss believed Kinzo died in his sleep...) and assumed the servants had him wear his ring as well.

In addition Eva got Kinzo's ring. Krauss and Natsuhi wouldn't have showed it to the siblings unless they were willing to admit they hid Kinzo's death.

Kinzo's death might have been connected to Yasu.

No, I'm not saying she killed him directly, more than during his meeting with Yasu he died, be it due to the strong emotion of meeting her or due to the pain of being rejected by her (Ep 7 Tea Party implies he might have tried to make moves on her as well).

After Kinzo's death Yasu is informed about her past in more details and she's not pleased by what she discovers. She however doesn't want to become the new head so it's decided they'll hid how Kinzo truly died and let Krauss and Natsuhi believe he died in his sleep.

Again, implied in Ep 7 Tea Party.

One year before Kinzo's death Yasu decided she would like to have a little brother and created an immaginary one, Kanon.

That's what Ep 7 says but I assume it would be rather weird if 'Kanon' suddently showed up on Rokkenjima and no one were to notice there was a new boy wandering around, one nobody hired, nobody remembered coming from the Fukuin house with them and whose name wasn't written on the servant working schedule.
So I think in the beginning Kanon was merely an immaginary figure.

After Kinzo's death Yasu, probably using Genji's help, had Natsuhi and Krauss believe that it would be useful to their cause to have Shannon playing the role of Kanon, a boy who would serve Kinzo directly like Shannon and Genji.

Genji for sure was a servant under directs order of Kinzo. I've no idea if Shannon was already a one winged servant but she either was or she became one after Kinzo's death. Now Genji can't fake being around Kinzo all the time because Genji is the head servant and has duties. Shannon could but this would mean to have her doing nothing but faking being with Kinzo for most of the time. However, if Shannon were to fake being Kanon here and there when Shannon was working out of Kinzo's room, Kanon could be with Kinzo and vice versa. This would allow Kinzo to almost never be alone so that someone could always confirm he was with the master before and Yasu to work the same amount of time as the other servants.

Although Yasu would have a double working schedule she wouldn't really need to work for 2 people and she wouldn't risk to have Natsuhi, Krauss of Genji to summon Shannon and Kanon at the same time or to ask for one of the two while she was playing the role of the other, forcing her to drop everything to dress up as the one they wanted to see.

If Kanon were to be introduced by Genji, Krauss or Natsuhi his obvious resemblance to Shannon would pass as a coincidence because 'why should Genji, Krauss or Natsuhi suddenly say Shannon was Kanon?'

Jessica might be unaware her grandfather died and that Kanon is Shannon.

I'm not sure about this. Jessica was friend with Shannon and went to school with her so she should be the hardest person to trick. However she seems genuinely supportive of George and Shannon and in love with Kanon.
It'll be hard to believe she wanted them to have a triangular relation.
On the other side she might have fallen for Yasu and being turned down so she tried to be supportive of George.

Yasu, dressed up as Kanon, went to Jessica's school once. He also interacted with other servants occasionally and was introduced to the other family members prior to 1986.

Likely the message bottles included the existence of Kanon. Since nobody mentions this as suspicious the other servants might have known there was a Kanon working for the Ushiromiya. Kanon doesn't talk much and is pretty aloof so no one managed to get close to him enough to figure out Kanon was the same person as Shannon. Gohda might have been an example of someone who believed Shannon and Kanon were different people. Also either Krauss, Natsuhi or Genji introduced him as a separate person.

When Kanon is shown to go at Jessica school he's wearing clothes that cover most of his figure so this can have stopped the students from recognizing him as Shannon (Shannon went to Jessica's same school).

Also we've the Rokkenjima siblings greeting Kanon in front of Battler so they knew him beforehand.

Yasu used Kinzo's gold and Genji's help to create the identity of Ikuko because she planned/considered the idea to leave the Ushiromiya family. However that plan, due to a series of coincidences, wasn't put in act before 1986.

I tend to think that Yasu=Ikuko. However Ikuko couldn't simply magically appear in front of Battler, something had to be done to allow her existence, like buying her a house and giving her an ID.
Considering Yasu had a body incapable fo love it could be after Kinzo's death she knew things wouldn't have worked out George or Battler and originally merely planned to disappear (possibly faking her death) either after getting George to declare to her or Battler to keep his promise to her.

Quote:
Yasu began writing about the Rokkenjima murders before the Rokkenjima incident, either for fun or either to emulate Maria. Later those tales became or were rewritten to become the message bottles.

On Rokkenjima, around the time of the family conference was usually kept an Halloween party, at least when Kinzo was alive, in which were also made jokes and games.

In 1986 it was decided by someone to revive the Halloween party. The game is supposed to be a mystery based on Yasu's tales and involving the witch epitaph. For Yasu however the purpose is to decide how to deal with Battler and George.

In the beginning who 'died' in the mystery game wasn't really supposed to die but merely to play dead.

Someone either solved the epitaph or found the gold with other means. The adults were likely involved in the discovering of the gold. It's possible Battler was involved as well.
My best theory would be that Battler and Eva joined forces to find the gold. In Ep 3 Eva found the gold with the help of her alter ego and in Ep 5 Battler found it with the help of Erika. In Rokkenjima Prime Eva likely had no alter ego and there was no Erika. They could have joined forces together... and the rest of the family could have provided small hints (both Eva and Battler got a useful hint from Rosa).

Quote:
Once they did they got some explanations by 'Beatrice'.
Along with the explanations 'Beatrice' shows them Kinzo's ring.

I doubt Eva dug up Kinzo's body or turned Rokenjima upside down to find the ring so someone should have showed it to her. Although Ep 5 has Battler getting it, he wasn't interested in being the new head so, if he and Eva were to find the gold at the same time, I think he would have no problems to hand it to her.

The rest of the family was either with Eva and Battler when they found the gold or was warned short after. Natsuhi and Krauss weren't happy about the gold being discovered.

Battler didn't kept it as a secret in Ep 5, in Ep 3 Eva would have kept the secret but Rosa discovered the gold short after her. In Ep 7 Tea Party all the siblings discover the gold. It seems to imply the secret couldn't be kept.
Also, I'm assuming the Ushiromiya weren't in the middle of a serial murder problem but of a mere Halloween game so they were less suspicious of each other (yes, likely normally the siblings are suspicious of each other... but there's a big difference between merely being suspicious of my brother tricking me and being suspicious my brother had murdered people and might consider murdering me too...).
As for Natsuhi and Krauss being unhappy... well the reason is pretty obvious, isn't it?

Quote:
It's possible, that prior or after or during this moment 'Beatrice' tossed in the topic of Battler's sin.

Once the gold was found murders began to happen for real.
Likely Eva shot at someone by mistake.

It happened in Ep 3, when she, by mistake shot at Jessica, though she didn't kill her, and it happened again in Ep 7, though this time she killed Natsuhi. No idea if the person at which Eva shot died or was merely injured. No idea if Eva shooting at someone caused the murders to start.

Likely Rosa didn't kill anyone but she either was unwilling to keep the secret over something.

From game 3 to 7 we never see Rosa killing someone. However in Ep 3 she wanted to reveal to the other siblings that Eva had discovered the gold and in Ep 7 Tea Party she wanted to reveal to the police that Eva (and Hideyoshi) had, by mistake, killed someone.
This time it can be again that she's unwilling to keep the secret Eva shot at someone or also that she's unwilling to keep the secret about the gold because she's being denied a part of it and, in this case, she prefers to reveal its existance and cause all the other siblings to lose it as well.

Rudolf's economical situation might have been really desperate. In addition, since he was dealing with shady business it might be his own life or his family life was in danger as well.

It's often said all the siblings had bad financial situations but only Rudolf's business seems to be shady. In Ep 4 he says:

Quote:
"If he was kidnapped and we were threatened with a ransom of ten billion, I'd feeling like sticking a bow on the guy and letting them have him."
It seems just a joke however since in the same episode we see that the Sumadera aren't the best of the relative it's possible that Ange wasn't just visiting them because she was sick but had been actually kidnapped and the Sumadera were thereatening him.

It's possible there was an argument between the cousins as well.

Ep 4 have George and Jessica killing each other by mistake. Ep 6 have Geroge, Jessica, Battler and Yasu (Shannon, Kanon and Beatrice) challenge each other.
In both cases love is involved.
George is the most cold and determinate. Jessica is more doubtful (in Ep 4 her first answer was to be the one who would get killed and in Ep 6 she's still very doubtful about all it).
Battler... well... in Ep 4 he 'choses to kill his beloved' so although he's the only one who stay alive he loses his trial of love... in Ep 6 he's technically forced to stop taking part to the trial of love... but in the end he gets the girl and he'll be the one to allow George and Jessica to get their beloved as well.

George admits openly he was worried by Battler's return and jealous of him.
Battler admits Shannon was his first love and in Ep 7 he said he felt jealous at the idea George got her however he's never shown trying to steal Shannon from George, on the contrary he seems supportive of their love story (although being Kirye's son he could have inherited her jealousy problem).
Jessica might have been unwillingly dragged in the argument (in ep 6 she was unwillingly dragged in and in ep 4 she didn't mean to kill George).

I doubt the cousins would have gotten to the point of trying to kill each other over Yasu but their arguing could have caused further troubles.

Quote:
Murders escalates.
Battler knew about Asumu not being his mother and Kirye being his real mom prior coming to Rokkenjima, or discovered it while being there.

Since Toya knows Battler should have known as well. It's possible Rudolf told him when he apologized to him at his grandad's funeral and this was part of what pushed Battler to return to the Ushiromiya family register. It's also possible Rudolf told him while they were on Rokkenjima, though I've hard time picturing the moment in which such revelation was done.

Kirye didn't know about Battler being her son and ended up telling him/letting him know she hated Asumu for stealing Rudolf from her and hated him as well.

Again, Toya knew so Battler should have known as well. Since Kirye didn't act as if she hated Battler, she must have told him/let him known in Rokkenjima.

Quote:
It's possible Battler gets shot as well. Yasu, who might have considered being the only one who would die that night, changes her mind and drags him away from the island. Eva either knows they're escaping together or believes she's the only survivor and covers up everything using the bomb.

Battler, either due to blood loss or psychological trauma loses his memory. Yasu takes the identity of Ikuko, which she likely prepared previously.
Ikuko, knowing Battler's true identity, thinks to protect him, hiding him and the truth about him.

Ikuko didn't want the world to know she had found Battler. That's generally not what one would do when he found a person suffering with memory loss. Either she suffered the "Misery" syndrome (it's interesting how Toya will lose the use of his legs like Paul Sheldon and he's kind of trapped in Ikuko's house since it seems he doesn't even know where it is) or she knew if people were to discover Battler was still alive he wouldn't have a happy family riunion but the press tormenting him to know what had happened in Rokkenjima.

Battler, now Toya, begins to live with Ikuko and the two start writing books together however one day Ikuko causes him to stumble over info about the Rokkenjima incident and his memory begins to return.

It might be at this point Ikuko, or better a side of her, wanted him to remember or merely test if his memory was really sealed forever. If she's Yasu it can be that, although it's useful he can't remember, she might not like being forgotten. If she's not she likely should have figured/known he was Battler and might consider trying to help him to regain his memory... her own way.

Quote:
Yasu didn't mean to kill anyone which is why Toya, knowing the truth, can get over what she did just fine. Likely Kyrie and/or Rudolf killed someone and possibly Eva too. Toya probably merely decided to deal with it remembering their best sides and not what had happened in the Rokkenjima incident.
Likely Toya perceives Battler as the one responsible for the whole thing.

In Ep 4 we're told it's Battler's sin that caused all this. In Ep 5 Battler blames himself for discovering the gold, saying he should have figured this would have caused only troubles. In Ep 7 Will too placed the blame of the incident on Battler. It seems in Ep 8 it's said Toya attempted suicide after he regained his memory/part of it. I don't think Battler went on Rokenjima planning to kill everyone, it's possible he didn't even kill someone while in it but it looks like he blames himself for what had happened.

Last edited by jjblue1; 2011-09-25 at 13:14.
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Old 2011-09-25, 12:30   Link #24564
Wanderer
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The murder game idea is really sexy, but it has its problems too. For example, in Alliance it makes no sense to think that it was a murder game because we know (from RK07) that Shannon committed suicide in the end in a way that made it look like a murder. If it truly was just a murder game that was hijacked to commit real murders, why would she do this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
We can use binary opposition to reach a possible answer to a lot of the scenes in Umineko. For example in this case the options are:

She was Unwilling - Coercion
She was Willing- Game/crime
There's a third option: The person on the other end of the phone wasn't actually Jessica.

Jessica really is suspicious in Alliance though, since quite a lot of information goes through her (the only people who ever talk with Krauss are Jessica and Gohda). If you suppose that everyone in the cousin's room at the time except Battler and Maria are in on it (Gohda and Kumasawa are already obviously not to be trusted, so this would only be adding Jessica and George), then it covers all of the voices on the other side of the phone except Kyrie's (the only one Battler ever hears himself).

So the deception could be from Gohda, Kumasawa, George, Jessica, and Kyrie's voice (might be Kyrie lying, or it might not be Kyrie at all etc.). Alternatively, it could be that George and Jessica are actually being tricked as well and the deception is coming from Krauss's voice, Gohda, Kumasawa, Yasu's voice, and Kyrie's voice, as well as Jessica's voice when she leaves and calls back to Battler.

After all this, I tend to believe that the voices on the other side of the phone are what is fake. Kyrie does not seem like the kind of character to embellish a story with magic; it seemed like the whole point of her final phone call with Battler was simply to get him to believe, so we basically know it's Beatrice (Yasu) behind the call. Which leaves us three choices that I can think of:
  • Yasu gets Kyrie to tell her story unwillingly. This seems like a stretch, because her story is so detailed and just plain weird, and would require a lot of coaching and real-time coordinated adjustments between Yasu and Kyrie in order to respond to Battler's reactions. It's hard to imagine all this happening with a gun to Kyrie's head. Somewhat less hard to imagine if Yasu had a hostage or something, but still it would be difficult.
  • Yasu gets Kyrie to tell her story willingly. It could be for money (in which case Yasu just killed her after in an a way that matched her story to Battler), or just as a part of a murder game. Though I think playing such an elaborate and convincing murder game prank on Battler is just plain mean, and even if Yasu was willing to be this mean, I doubt most others would have any reason to collaborate in it for good hearted "fun" of it. It's quite reasonable they'd do it for money, though.
  • It's not Kyrie on the phone with Battler at all, but someone (Yasu) who can imitate Kyrie's voice. It may seem implausible, but if you think about it, Yasu has demonstrated 3 distinct voices (Shannon, Kanon, Beatrice), and maybe even 4 (The Man From 19 Years Ago). Also, everything inexplicable about all the phone calls in Alliance is easily and cleanly answered by supposing Yasu to be a superb voice impressionist.

Will described the escape from the Kuwadorian with Kyrie, Shannon etc. as "silent corpses, adorned with fiction." I think it's reasonable to think that this means either Kyrie and Krauss never actually spoke to anyone because they were already dead by the time their voices were heard, or that the corpses that Battler found aren't the corpses of the people he spoke to (and got there in a completely different way).
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Old 2011-09-25, 13:10   Link #24565
jjblue1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
The murder game idea is really sexy, but it has its problems too. For example, in Alliance it makes no sense to think that it was a murder game because we know (from RK07) that Shannon committed suicide in the end in a way that made it look like a murder. If it truly was just a murder game that was hijacked to commit real murders, why would she do this?
My idea is that the murder game provided her the mean to murder the others or make them act in such way without making them suspicious. Yasu surely doesn't own impressive strenght and against too many people she (or he) would surely lose even if she were to have a weapon, especially if the others were aware she planned to kill them all and she was alone in her plan.

I don't think Kumasawa, Gohda and Nanjo would be her accomplices if they were to know she was planning such a mass murder.
I think she had already decided to commit suicide and possibly her suicide was meant to be sort of a last message to Battler. However, the games we saw aren't Rokkenjima Prime. They might be partially based on it, but they aren't the truth.

So my idea is that on Rokkenjima Prime took place such halloween game that ended up being turned into a mass murder due to other factors.
Since I assume the tales for the games were written by Battler and Ikuko and that Ikuko=Yasu, they kept some elements of what had happened in RP (the game) but twisted them for the story's purpose. After all it seems in all the games the culprit is Yasu but that in RP things went differently. Ergo Shannon's suicide was merely a narrative expedient, not something that really happened.

In Rokkenjima Prime it could be that when Yasu thought about killing Shannon and Kanon, she might merely mean erasing those identities (possibly faking their deaths) and taking Ikuko's identity whom she must have prepared beforehand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
There's a third option: The person on the other end of the phone wasn't actually Jessica.
I've considered it but Battler doesn't say he found something suspicious in Jessica's voice, so either Yasu or someone else knew how to fake it or it have to be Jessica... or we're missing a clue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
[*]Yasu gets Kyrie to tell her story willingly. It could be for money (in which case Yasu just killed her after in an a way that matched her story to Battler), or just as a part of a murder game. Though I think playing such an elaborate and convincing murder game prank on Battler is just plain mean, and even if Yasu was willing to be this mean, I doubt most others would have any reason to collaborate in it for good hearted "fun" of it. It's quite reasonable they'd do it for money, though.
Hum... I agree on the game being mean but honestly I found pretty weird of how the cousins didn't question what was being told to them. I mean, if someone were to tell me my grandfather summoned demons to kill my relatives and then had the surviving relatives fall into magic pitfalls... well, I would think he's under drugs or trying to prank me.

When we read Ep 4 not only we aren't reading RP real story but we aren't even reading Alliance's real story but Alliance through Battler's eyes. So it's possible in the book the cousins were aware it was all a game and laughing at the weird Beatrice story beliving no one was dead and their relatives were merely playing dead. However, since we read it using the 'Battler's vision' and he knows people are going to die for real and he doesn't know yet (or better he can't remember) who's the culprit, everything takes a scary shape. People believe that magic is taking place and that people are dying for real.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
[*] It's not Kyrie on the phone with Battler at all, but someone (Yasu) who can imitate Kyrie's voice. It may seem implausible, but if you think about it, Yasu has demonstrated 3 distinct voices (Shannon, Kanon, Beatrice), and maybe even 4 (The Man From 19 Years Ago). Also, everything inexplicable about all the phone calls in Alliance is easily and cleanly answered by supposing Yasu to be a superb voice impressionist.
Well, in truth Beatrice exists only in Battler's mind so Yasu never spoke in Beatrice's voice.
Also one matter is to create a new voice, and another is to imitate a real, existing voice and that person's manner to speak. Though to be honest i've considered as well that idea since Lambda talked of how easy is to fake other voices and it's true phones slightly changes voices, so that they make harder to recognize them.

Anyway this is how Natsuhi described the voice at the phone:

Quote:
The voice certainly did sound like that of a young man.

But it's a bit hard to figure out much about a person just by their voice over the phone...

It sounded like a young man, but it might actually be a middle school-aged boy or an adult man whose voice still hadn't deepened.

No wait, it might be too soon even to be sure that this is a male.
And this is what Lambda said:

Quote:
Anyone can change their voice. A sweet voice when coaxing Papa♪ A sick-sounding voice when taking the day off school. An apologetic voice when turning down a friend that you actually hate! If you want♪, I can do~ any voice at all☆ Got i~t?!
It seems Lambda is referring more to the tone of her voice than anything else. Shannon generally speaks in a humble tone. Kanon rarely spoke, and although his tone can sound a little bit angry his manner of speaking doesn't match with the one of the 'person at the phone' and I think the tone he uses is different as well so Natsuhi might have not recognized him.

Of course it's possible Yasu merely faked Jessica, Krauss and/or Kirye's tones and the fact she was at the phone helped her to trick the others into believing she was another person. It's not as easy as faking a new voice though.

Hum... I need to think this one over some more.
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Old 2011-09-25, 13:39   Link #24566
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If you don't like people being mad at you, then you might want to reconsider your "aggressive arguing style".
I'm not aggressive, I'm just blunt. There's no anger behind my words unless I explicitly, clearly say there is. Don't get mad at me for things you projected onto me.

Then again, I'm Yasu. I suppose it should be expected.
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Old 2011-09-25, 14:07   Link #24567
Cao Ni Ma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
The murder game idea is really sexy, but it has its problems too. For example, in Alliance it makes no sense to think that it was a murder game because we know (from RK07) that Shannon committed suicide in the end in a way that made it look like a murder. If it truly was just a murder game that was hijacked to commit real murders, why would she do this?



There's a third option: The person on the other end of the phone wasn't actually Jessica.
Has there been an instance of a character imitating another' voice in this story? This would be information that we just couldn't be able to verify here cause we dont know if the voices are similar or if a person in the story is capable of voice mimicry. Hell it could mean someone else led Jessica around in EP3 thinking it was Shkanon.
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Old 2011-09-25, 14:25   Link #24568
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If it was voice mimicry, there'd have to be a clue because it would count as a disguise.
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Old 2011-09-25, 19:48   Link #24569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
My idea is that the murder game provided her the mean to murder the others or make them act in such way without making them suspicious. Yasu surely doesn't own impressive strenght and against too many people she (or he) would surely lose even if she were to have a weapon, especially if the others were aware she planned to kill them all and she was alone in her plan.
This and the rest that you wrote is pretty much the theory we've developed since EP5 and 6. But there were a few more details with big implications:

1. Krauss is aware of some or all of Yasu's plans. (Probably just some.) This is due to the talk of about how he had the island surveyed and had Toraian (the hotel building) built in EP1. If Yasu was shown to be in control in EP7, it's likely she had Krauss perform those activities for him. The building of Toraian may have been cover for the survey of the island; or rather the survey of the underground military base and explosives. Afterall, Krauss already used his black market contacts to exchange some of the gold for money for the money cards for Yasu. So Krauss is pretty much part of Yasu's plans; and of course he is hiding things from Natsuhi.

2. The Epitaph Game's whole objective is Battler. Note the calculations I made regarding the probability of Battler and Nanjo surviving the first twilight and Battler's probability to survive all twilights. As a result, Rudolf, was most likely recruited by Yasu to bring Battler back at any cost, which included a head-to-ground kneeling bow; something I gather he wouldn't have done without lots of money. So at the least he knows that someone (as Yasu may not have recruited him directly) has control of the finances and has a lot more money.


Actually, I wanted to speak to this a bit more last time, but I ended up writing a novel. 8)

If Rudolf knows, it's likely that Kyrie knows too. And while I don't suspect Kyrie of being a mastermind of any kind, I suspect that she is capable of taking her 'thinking' too far. I believe her characterization in EP7, where once things were 'obvious' to her she would not hesitate to take action, is correct. I don't ascribe any malice to her however. But like Eva in EP3, if she is fearful of her, Battler or Rudolf's life with sufficient evidence, she will kill in an attempt to protect.

I believe this makes her very dangerous and can contribute to the side-show killings the siblings were expected to cause in EP1-6... (of course these killings are just conjecture on Yasu and Battler-Tooya's part...)


If you add to this how every aunt is recruited at least once to be the Key, it really stirs the pot and can provide a lot of red-herrings. 8)
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Old 2011-09-25, 19:53   Link #24570
PsychoShion
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Did you know the original line was changed?

Just wondering if any of you guys knew though that the poem which Agatha Christie based her ten little indians on of course there were some changes, but check out what orignally was in the poem before it changed to what it is now, might almost explain how she got the idea to end the play, maybe even R07 used that to explain the whole battler-featherinne thing. or you could just say most movie versions a couple survives and not all die like in one russian version ive seen which is true to the book not the play.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten_Little_Indians

original


One little Injun livin' all alone,
He got married and then there were none

in Book

One little Indian boy left all alone;
He went out and hanged himself and then there were none.
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Old 2011-09-25, 21:31   Link #24571
J the Drafter
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I suspect that Natsuhi and Krauss were keeping Kinzo's body so that they could announce his death and have his funeral/burial at a later date. There was some talk on this forum about the possibility of Kinzo's corpse being treated with preservatives (people thought that these hypothetical chemicals were the reason Kinzo's study smelled so horribly).
I also have a practical suggestion for why Yasu chose to act out the role of Kanon. The 'Kanon' persona allowed Yasu to recruit a couple siblings as Shannon, and to then hide from them in plain sight as Kanon. In Episode 1 for example, Hideyoshi provides testimony that Shannon is in the gardening shed. Hideyoshi thinks that Shannon is running around somewhere in the mists of Rokkenjima; he has no idea that Shannon is actually a few feet away from him pretending to be a boy servant.
Finally, I have a question. What did Yasu hope to gain from the Twilight Murders/Fake Twilight Murders? I can understand Yasu being heartsick, but how does that impel her to set up the Beatrice game?
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Old 2011-09-25, 22:04   Link #24572
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Quote:
Finally, I have a question. What did Yasu hope to gain from the Twilight Murders/Fake Twilight Murders? I can understand Yasu being heartsick, but how does that impel her to set up the Beatrice game?
I can't explain why she would really murder anyone because it makes no sense, but here's the general consensus on the Fake Mystery Game idea.

Battler had returned, and mystery novels were what they had bonded over, and he doesn't seem to remember him. That, and she's trying to choose between him, George, and Jessica (and I suppose there's pretending to be a witch for Maria). She also doesn't want to be the head of the family, and the gold doesn't make her happy, and all the adults need money. So she can pay all of them with some gold, and get them to cooperate with her in constructing a game for the cousins to solve.

Simply put, whoever won would be the cousin she decided to stay with/marry/whatever the hell.
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Old 2011-09-25, 22:09   Link #24573
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Originally Posted by J the Drafter View Post
Finally, I have a question. What did Yasu hope to gain from the Twilight Murders/Fake Twilight Murders? I can understand Yasu being heartsick, but how does that impel her to set up the Beatrice game?
The best advantage I can think of is to get people's co-operation in performing activities that can lead up to their murder.

For example, it's shown that Kanon/Yasu has trouble with a bag of fertilizer, nevermind trying to haul someone as big as Nanjo or Gouda around. Or even trying to haul six bodies out in the rain. Instead, the idea of getting people to pretend they're dead gets their co-operation in moving their own bodies.

Also, the victims are much more vulnerable to be killed. For example look at how easy it was for Erika to kill and saw off the heads of the victims in EP6. (Of course, this was not the clue but the answer Ryukishi provided.)

In addition, it is good cover for any of the surviving people who are in on the plan; and most of them are. The servants, Krauss and Rudolf, they should all know already. And Hideyoshi can be told too. The cousins appear to be in on it or agree readily to pranking Battler. In fact the only one who probably can't be told it's a joke is Maria; she's told it's real and she pretends hard enough, as per EP6 where Erika mentioned how well she pretended despite the sawing sounds coming from Rosa's neck. 8)


From what I've gathered through EP1-6, the plan is:

Oct 5th Afternoon - Recruit the Key ("Any of the siblings would have been fine, but it looks like you were chosen by the roulette this time." - EP2 Beatrice to Rosa)

Oct 5th After Dinner, about 10pm - Get the Key to choose 6 'victims'
  • this appeared to start from the mansion and usually stragglers are chosen. depends on the personality of the key (for example Eva, probably suspecting the servants of something, chose ALL the servants...)
  • the chosen people are told to fake their deaths; they and the key should still believe it's 'for fun' - note how everyone chooses nice comfortable rooms rather than say, in the freezing rain outside.
  • Note that in some episodes, circumstances prevent choosing of enough people, due to the sibling meeting going on forever; in that case in EP5, Rosa chose to go to the cousins room to make up the rest of the 'victims.'

Oct 6th Midnight to Morning - this seems optional, but the victims, whether they are discovered are not are told to 'wake up' and move to somewhere else. Sometimes they don't get the chance to do so, like with having Battler snoring away in the room and pervert Erika listening in on everything
  • it is at this point that the FT victims are the most vulnerable. They can be killed in their individual rooms or they can be killed after they have moved somewhere else.

Aftewards - Successive twilights are planned to be faked, but as the situation unravels, it sometimes carries on as per the plan... sometimes the real killing starts happening. At this point Yasu will just stake any body she finds, I bet. 8) Also Kinzo could be dragged out (must require the help of someone, i.e. Krauss?) and burned, giving her another body to work with.

The victims are probably told that they're enacting the Epitaph and are being lead on by the gold and money. They, or at least the key is told that Battler is the important one and at the end of the Epitaph, even those who have 'died' will be returned to life. Of course, this is probably why Natsuhi, Rosa and Eva play along for so long, but then look at Eva being bewildered at the end of EP3, and probably shot Battler as she suspected him of something too. This also explains why Kyrie would give that strange phone call telling Battler to believe in witches; something totally contrary to her nature. EP4's Key was probably Kyrie.

EDIT: Oh, my post speaks to logistics. Aura made a good point about Yasu's motives in running the game and everything else.
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Old 2011-09-25, 22:24   Link #24574
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Hum... I agree on the game being mean but honestly I found pretty weird of how the cousins didn't question what was being told to them. I mean, if someone were to tell me my grandfather summoned demons to kill my relatives and then had the surviving relatives fall into magic pitfalls... well, I would think he's under drugs or trying to prank me.
Actually, Gohda and Kumasawa never mention anything about magic, only that Kinzo was killing his family according to the epitaph, that he had help doing it, and that others were captured. Krauss, Kyrie, and the others in prison do not speak of magic before the escape to anyone in the cousins' room either. Testimony about magic doesn't reach Battler's ears until the call with Jessica (and even then she refers to it somewhat vaguely), and it's not really fully developed until his final talk with Kyrie.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Well, in truth Beatrice exists only in Battler's mind so Yasu never spoke in Beatrice's voice.
Only if the Beatrice that appears on Rokkenjima isn't even fictional but meta.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Though to be honest i've considered as well that idea since Lambda talked of how easy is to fake other voices and it's true phones slightly changes voices, so that they make harder to recognize them.
Oh yes, I had forgotten about this. It's not exactly a clue per se since it's meta, but it can certainly be interpreted as a hint. In fact, it's a pretty convincing one that basically outright suggests there's voice tricks going on... somewhere. Combine this with Will's "Silent corpses adorned with fiction", and, well, I'm pretty convinced.

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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Has there been an instance of a character imitating another' voice in this story?
Kind of, but it's meta: Lambdadelta provided the voice of the "Man From 19 Years Ago".
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Old 2011-09-25, 23:44   Link #24575
J the Drafter
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I thank you, Kylon99 and AuraTwilight for your insight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
They, or at least the key is told that Battler is the important one and at the end of the Epitaph, even those who have 'died' will be returned to life.
George and Jessica die in four out of six Episodes. In two of these four Episodes, George and Jessica are in the same room as Yasu when they die. In Episode 2, George and Jessica are close to Shannon/Kanon when Beatrice storms in and kills them. In Episode 3, George is again right next to Yasu when he is shot. In Episode 4, George and Jessica are shown to have killed eachother, and in Episode 5, George and Jessica are chosen for the First Twilight. Episode 4 is weird, with Kinzo going on a rampage and the stakings being done sloppily. You already pointed out that in Episode 5, Rosa, 'the Key', probably settled for selecting the cousins because all of the siblings were busy at their meeting.
Both times that George and Jessica die in front of Shannon or Kanon, Shannon and Kanon die with them. What I'm getting at is that in half the Episodes, Yasu could have played a direct role in the deaths of George and Jessica, and maybe she's giving up on playing the Shannon/Kanon characters as she does it.

Edit: I'm very sorry, Kylon, I didn't mean to leave you out of my thanks.
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Superman: “You know what, Ein? Dreams save us. Dreams lift us up and transform us into something better. And on my soul, I swear — until my dream of a world where dignity, honor and justice becomes the reality we all share — I'll never stop fighting. Ever.”

“Phantom: Requiem for the Phantom” and “Superman vs. the Elite”

(Mostly accurate dialogue, but with a little editing to make it mesh better.)

Last edited by J the Drafter; 2011-09-26 at 01:23.
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Old 2011-09-26, 00:17   Link #24576
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Originally Posted by J the Drafter View Post
Both times that George and Jessica die in front of Shannon or Kanon, Shannon and Kanon die with them. What I'm getting at is that in half the Episodes, Yasu could have played a direct role in the deaths of George and Jessica, and maybe she's giving up on playing the Shannon/Kanon characters as she does it.
Yes. I especially felt this in Turn. In order for Beatrice to kill another Yasu-personality's love interest she seems to have to kill that other Yasu-personality first. Basically, as long as the Shannon personality is alive she won't allow Beatrice to kill George. The same goes for Kanon with regards to Jessica.
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Old 2011-09-26, 01:05   Link #24577
AuraTwilight
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That's of course only taking into account the idea of Yasu having multiple personalities instead of just having multiple identities (the former being extremely stupid and not at all realistic psychology).

The idea that the Yasu-identities have to die before their lovers can die is kind of flawed anyway.

EP1: Shannon and Kanon die first. Jessica and George are done in by the bomb and it seemed to be Yasu's intend to have them live as long as possible. They apparently squandered their oppurtunity to escape and solve the Epitaph and whatnot.

EP2: both couples die together.

EP3: Both characters die. Things are hijacked by whoever Evatrice represents.

EP4: Jessica and George die before Shannon and Kanon.

EP5: Jessica and George die before Shannon and Kanon.

EP6: Kanon dies. Everyone else is fine.

Welp, so much for that hypothesis. It doesn't even work half the time.
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Old 2011-09-26, 01:11   Link #24578
Kylon99
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And of course, Battler is never allowed to be killed until the end due to Beatrice. At least until she's affirmed whether he remembers his promise or not. (And then at the end he dies, whether it's the Twilight X--the bomb... or whether Yasu is gone by then and someone else like Eva kills him.)

Mind you, EP6 is different as Beatrice is gone and the game is actually run by Battler. I love how the Rokkenjima Gameboard reflects the Meta world and vice versa. 8) (And by then we already know he's not dead. But being chosen for a First Twilight makes it so that the game was no longer something Beatrice was presenting to Battler.)

EDIT: About George and Jessica

I just remembered now why I had always suspected them. Except for EP5, those two are never chosen for the First Twilight. Some of the other people who are rarely chosen for the first twilight are:

Kanon
Kumasawa
Battler
Kinzo
Nanjo (who is never chosen for the First Twilight, period.)

And with Kumasawa, Battler, Kinzo and Nanjo, they have reds speaking about how they aren't the culprits or that they were dead to begin with... etc...

Last edited by Kylon99; 2011-09-26 at 01:23.
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Old 2011-09-26, 02:57   Link #24579
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
That's of course only taking into account the idea of Yasu having multiple personalities instead of just having multiple identities (the former being extremely stupid and not at all realistic psychology).
You don't think that killing Jessica or George would require her to give up on the part of her life that she associated with them?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
The idea that the Yasu-identities have to die before their lovers can die is kind of flawed anyway.

EP1: Shannon and Kanon die first. Jessica and George are done in by the bomb and it seemed to be Yasu's intend to have them live as long as possible. They apparently squandered their oppurtunity to escape and solve the Epitaph and whatnot.

EP2: both couples die together.

EP3: Both characters die. Things are hijacked by whoever Evatrice represents.

EP4: Jessica and George die before Shannon and Kanon.

EP5: Jessica and George die before Shannon and Kanon.

EP6: Kanon dies. Everyone else is fine.

Welp, so much for that hypothesis. It doesn't even work half the time.
Really?

EP1: Fits hypothesis.
EP2: Fits hypothesis.
EP3: Fits hypothesis.
EP4: Could fit hypothesis because the real order of deaths isn't known. Accepting the hypothesis makes it possible to nail down some of the order.
EP5: Different premise. Shannon and Kanon have separate bodies.
EP6: Different premise. Yasu isn't the culprit.
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Old 2011-09-26, 04:00   Link #24580
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EDIT: About George and Jessica

I just remembered now why I had always suspected them. Except for EP5, those two are never chosen for the First Twilight.
To be fair, there's no nice way to do it. Either you have a Fake Murder Game, where the cousins are all together and you need to somehow get Jessica and George in on it without letting Battler finding out, or you have legitimate mystery, and you have to kill them while Battler is sleeping, meaning removing them from the room and killing them without him waking up.

How on earth are you going to do that? Atleast in EP5 it's heavily implied that Battler is in on it.

Quote:
Some of the other people who are rarely chosen for the first twilight are:

Kanon
Kumasawa
Battler
Kinzo
Nanjo (who is never chosen for the First Twilight, period.)
Interestingly, aside from Battler every single one of those people is In On It(TM), or already dead.

Quote:
You don't think that killing Jessica or George would require her to give up on the part of her life that she associated with them?
Not necessarily. Or atleast, not in a strict If X then Y manner. The idea that "Shannon is keeping Beatrice from murdering George" only works if they are two conflicting wills of some sort, and that ditching a costume or identity can just snuff out a will. This doesn't really work in either model of the Yasu-psychology, but in the manner I presented, it has Yasu casting aside her hopes for one of the cousins, but not having to ditch a character beforehand.

Quote:
EP1: Fits hypothesis.
EP2: Fits hypothesis.
EP3: Fits hypothesis.
EP1: Beatrice is clearly letting them live as long as possible. She doesn't go out of her way to kill them and they reach the end of the time limit having squandered the many opportunities she gave them.

EP2: Both couples die together. This isn't equivalent to "Character dies so that Lover can die." It's literally nixxing both at once.

EP3: Sure, except it seems that Alternate Culprit X seems to be the one doing the killings after the First Twilight and allegory indicates that Yasu is trying to protect or aid the lovers somehow. Jessica could've been killed on the spot but she was laid to a safer area.

Quote:
EP4: Could fit hypothesis because the real order of deaths isn't known. Accepting the hypothesis makes it possible to nail down some of the order.
Yea except Kanon is the 9th victim and Jessica died before then. And George's death was confirmed before Battler confirmed Shannon's death, too. Oops.

The George/Shannon one is ambiguous at best. Kanon/Jessica is pretty much right out.

Quote:
EP5: Different premise. Shannon and Kanon have separate bodies.
Prove it. Erika never confirmed it.

Quote:
EP6: Different premise. Yasu isn't the culprit.
It would've, if Erika didn't hijack things. The Love Duel sure seems like it allowed for the normal system of doing things if Erika didn't take the campaign off the rails, to use D&D lingo. This is an Unknown at Best.

So yea, this hypothesis doesn't really pan out under scrutiny. There's way too many exceptions to give us any worthwhile data, unlike something like, say, "Shannon and George are never the 2nd Twilight" or something.
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