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Old 2011-09-30, 08:23   Link #24721
Cao Ni Ma
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She certainly did not freak out as her mother was killed and decapitated in EP6 though and if GENSAWAJO where really killed in EP1 and Maria was with them it would invalidate that theory. Although Will's "Blind Girl" part might be a hint here! The issue is if she's always closed her eyes before the "magic" happens then why would she have them open in EP4? Not only that, wouldn't opening her eyes when Beatrice would have told her "leave them close" make her fail the test? Didn't Kinzo say that she passed it? Was the test to have them open while Beatrice blew everyone's brains out? That would be pretty sadistic of her but would be kinda hilarious to watch. "Maria you wanna see real magic, magic to hurt bad people? This is magic" *Bang* *Bang* *Bang*

e- I also dont think Battler was all that good. Your first example about the people being killed in different places than they where found doesn't seem likely. Its much easier for a body to move itself. There's also some red in EP5 that seems to indicate that there's a undisclosed rule that once a person becomes a real corpse it wont be moved around much anymore. I'd have to re-read the time he finds Shannon's corpse again to properly break it apart since I dont remember much about it. I'd say that more than 9/10 times Battler connected the dots wrong or didn't do a proper deconstruction of the scenes.

Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-30 at 08:39.
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Old 2011-09-30, 08:31   Link #24722
Renall
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Actually, it can be used: The culprit creates a phony person as a scapegoat. After the crime, the phony person can vanish completely.
Sure, and I can see where you're going with that, but that's one of a relatively limited set of examples.

I mean, how can two people pretending to be one be useful? Several ways:
  • The most obviously useful is that since only one person is expected, the second person can go do whatever is necessary while the first person poses as the "expected" individual.
  • The individual can appear to be in multiple places at once if both pose as it at the same time in different places.
  • By switching off whenever necessary, the individual always has an alibi.
  • The individual must die twice to truly be killed, and if not the culprit, the culprit can't readily get away with exposing this lest it become obvious who killed one of the two.
And probably other things. But, it's got the obvious downside that because only one person is expected, only one person must ever be seen. It also has the problem that even if the two persons extensively share information, they will not behave entirely alike or have the same exact knowledge, which could give them away.

Fair enough. What about one person as two?
  • The individual can create a second identity for themselves without being forced to always use a disguise, as their "real" self can also be expected to exist.
  • The second identity could have authority, knowledge, or traits the individual isn't expected to have, and thus use those things openly when posing as the second identity.
  • The individual can mislead eyewitnesses by a different appearance and manner, although this is not entirely different from a disguise. The primary difference would be if the second identity can be positively identified, thus a fake person can be framed and made to vanish, throwing suspicion off the true individual.
  • The individual can plant or confirm testimony that he actually invented himself by making it appear that more than one person has a particular opinion.
  • And of course, the individual will have all the knowledge of both characters.
These things all sound familiar in Umineko, because they're things Beatrice would find useful, but not Shkanon.

Yet there are so, so many downsides:
  • Without collusion or lying, the individual can never present both his characters in the same place at the same time.
  • The individual must rely on being able to quickly and safely change identities without anyone knowing about it. If this involves physical changes, it's a lot of work.
  • The individual risks "slipping" into one character or the other at the wrong time.
  • The individual's particular mannerisms may be more revealing than he expects them to be and apply to both characters.
  • Since the individual knows whatever both characters know, he must juggle the information to make sure he never accidentally reveals he knows something as one character that only the other character is supposed to know.
  • If the individual dies, his other character suddenly disappears, raising questions as to where the other person went.
  • If he fakes his own death, the individual is still bound to pose as the second character, who would be expected not to be dead. If he fakes death as both, he's put in twice the effort as just faking his death normally.
  • If one of the two characters becomes a suspect, the individual may come under scrutiny which prevents him from switching to the other character, causing their mysterious absence.
And again, I'm sure there's others. These are all serious logistical problems and Shkanon doesn't benefit from any of the things I mentioned above. Beatrice does, but Shannon and Kanon do not.
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Old 2011-09-30, 09:27   Link #24723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
She certainly did not freak out as her mother was killed and decapitated in EP6 though and if GENSAWAJO where really killed in EP1 and Maria was with them it would invalidate that theory.
I actually remember her freaking out quite much when Shkannon attacked Rosa and her. When Rosa was decapitated she was playing dead so hard that she didn't open her eyes at all...she didn't have much time to realize.
EP3 shows her being quite freaked out by Eva-Beato's behaviour and crying into Beato's arms...I wouldn't be suprised if something like this happened in EP4 as well. We also know that she would frequently freak out when people quarreled and would beg them to stop fighting for everyone was going to the golden land. If that happened in a closed circle within one room and somebody pulled the trigger...things would probably wind up with everybody dead (a bloodbath in Kinzo's study in EP1 was also only stopped by Battler and the cousins interfering).

Quote:
Not only that, wouldn't opening her eyes when Beatrice would have told her "leave them close" make her fail the test? Didn't Kinzo say that she passed it?
Did he? I definitely need to reread that part. I'll come back to that later.

Quote:
I'd say that more than 9/10 times Battler connected the dots wrong or didn't do a proper deconstruction of the scenes.
Though I'd also say that you end in a deadend when you just go by "Because Battler is often wrong, everything he says is wrong!" ... every character was often wrong but that doesn't mean they said truthful stuff once and again. Heck, Erika was probably wrong about all of her Natsuhi theory, but that doesn't stop her from being right in many places.
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Old 2011-09-30, 10:05   Link #24724
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Battler's biggest mistake tends to be in understanding motive. He often gets things wrong because he makes wildly inaccurate assumptions about the people he's dealing with. If you look at his actual investigations, such as at the end of ep4, he draws reasonably plausible conclusions based on what he's actually seeing, he just has no idea how or why it would have happened because he reads people wrong.
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Old 2011-09-30, 10:16   Link #24725
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Battler's biggest mistake tends to be in understanding motive. He often gets things wrong because he makes wildly inaccurate assumptions about the people he's dealing with. If you look at his actual investigations, such as at the end of ep4, he draws reasonably plausible conclusions based on what he's actually seeing, he just has no idea how or why it would have happened because he reads people wrong.
Exactly what I would say as well.

I will have to reread those passages in a whole as well before I say anything else, but considering a quick read of the Japanese version of Jessica's and Kyrie's call I'd say it's highly likely that they were either pre-recorded or acted.
What speaks for prerecording also is one thing that Kyrie says...that is that she was attacked by the golden string of light through the keyhole 3 times already. The problem in the mansion is that there don't seem to be any rooms with keyholes because they were all changed to...I think they are called deadbolt locks in English. So there is no way that anything would enter through a keyhole...which hints to her not knowing the room she was in or maybe even planning to put her in a different room.
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Old 2011-09-30, 10:17   Link #24726
Cao Ni Ma
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Well it really doesnt matter though, both are possible and given the lack of evidence we really cant discard either of them. I'd personally like if there was more of a trick to it than just, "peer trough the window and shot them"

Regarding Maria's test. Im pretty sure thats what Kinzo said a few moments before Beatrice gets mad and sets him on fire. About her conduct, what your saying does make sense though. The issue is that there seems to be some inconsistencies, the job now would be to try and figure out why they are there.

For one Maria is openly antagonistic in EP1 forward Natsuhi, in certain scenes it even felt like she's heckling her into violence. Now in EP2 she's quite distraught when Battler and Rosa are fighting and wants them to stop. Is it because she just wants them to stop or is it because she wants them to believe in the witch which in part will stop them from fighting? In EP3 her complaints weren't about her mother being killed, it was about being killed herself! She felt like Beatrice broke the promise to her and felt confused by it. Later on in EP4 we see a fantasy scene with Maria not only witnesses her mothers death, but finds a certain catharsis in it. How does this all fit in?

Last edited by Cao Ni Ma; 2011-09-30 at 10:35.
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Old 2011-09-30, 10:53   Link #24727
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Well it really doesnt matter though, both are possible and given the lack of evidence we really cant discard either of them. I'd personally like if there was more of a trick to it than just, "peer trough the window and shot them"
Although the key switch requires some excuse from Yasu to need the key; she should be able to explain any death-faking plan to Gohda through the window.

On the other hand, shooting two shadows in the dark square in the forehead, and doing it fast enough that the second victim doesn't react, is pretty difficult.

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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Regarding Maria's test. Im pretty sure thats what Kinzo said a few moments before Beatrice gets mad and sets him on fire.
Yeah. This happens. Although I tend to think it's not much of a hint... and more just a setup to make Maria's death a bit more unexpected.
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Old 2011-09-30, 11:14   Link #24728
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
I assume they were ordered to play dead in the shed (due to the darkness Battler couldn't see if they were dead on the 4th) and later somebody (the culprit) came around and used one of the Winchesters to shoot through the small window. The way it is described it's quite possible for a skilled shooter (like Kanon was described in EP6) to hit them both, as they would still be captured in the noose and not have enough time to get out even if they noticed her.
They were shot in the forehead, so if they had been turned toward the window when they died, there would have been a noticeable twist in the way they were dangling from the nooses. Also, Battler commented that the view from the window was obstructed by a lot of equipment so that it was hard to make out what had happened. When he says that they could have been shot from the window, he probably doesn't mean that it was possible in their specific current positions with those specific wounds.

As for when they died, Battler was able to make out that their full weight was on the nooses the first time he looked inside, so it's probably correct to think they died before midnight.
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Old 2011-09-30, 11:30   Link #24729
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
As for when they died, Battler was able to make out that their full weight was on the nooses the first time he looked inside, so it's probably correct to think they died before midnight.
Well, there'd be no point in faking in the first place if they couldn't fool Battler at least this much...
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Old 2011-09-30, 11:33   Link #24730
Cao Ni Ma
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It could be to just prop their corpses so Battler can see they're dead. He also states that even though he saw them hanging they could still be playing a joke on them, which he seems to discard the moment he sees dead George.
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Old 2011-09-30, 13:59   Link #24731
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Actually if you connect it to EP3 you know how Maria would actually react if something terrible happened around her. If we consider that scene as a hint and not only as pure fantasy and discard it, we know that Beatrice would kill her out of mercy because anything that came afterwards she'd regard as torture for Maria.
I could imagine that maybe Maria'd freak if carnage actually happened AROUND her, especially to her mother. So there'd be no other escape than to kill her.
While it's true that most of the time Maria acts casual about people dying because of the Golden Land, she doesn't actually see corpses and that could cause a different reaction...the problem I have with this is EP2, when the corpses in the chapel are discovered. It's been quite a while since I've actually reread EP2 (though I'm planning on going through at least 1 and 2 again this upcoming October 4th and 5th to get myself back into an Umineko mood), but from what I recall...once everyone realizes they're corpses and not just sleeping, and start panicking, and then Jessica runs off with Gohda and Kanon to find 'Beatrice'...doesn't Maria start kihihihihi-ing over her usual 'lol no one can hurt Beatrice and it's cool anyways because we'll all go to the Golden Land'? This isn't from a casual, 'I know people are dead even if I'm not seeing it' point of view anymore where she might be more detached. She's in the room with 6 disemboweled corpses. That makes me question the idea that she'd always freak out if carnage was happening around her. Maybe if you consider it the difference between 'there are corpses here that are already dead' vs. 'someone in front of me in the act of killing', then I could accept it, but...I don't know.

We all know Maria isn't a typical 9-year old and her views on death aren't typical because she believes in the Golden Land, so barring the EP3 incident (in which she seemed more upset about Beato breaking her promises than the actual fact that she was killing) and in EP6 when Kanon killed Rosa, I can't think of anything that indicates Maria would have a habit of acting this way in front of carnage to where she was mercy-killed to prevent that. She seems to behave in different ways from one time to the next across the various EPs, but overall she is pretty laid back about the news that everyone (often including her mother) is dying all around her. I just can't easily accept that Beatrice killed her to spare her the agony of watching others die, when there's very little indicating that it would in fact traumatize her.
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Old 2011-09-30, 15:34   Link #24732
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To clarify, yes, I was asking if someone could possibly construct a scenario where Shkanon is necessary. I suppose red would be allowed, since it's Umineko we're talking about, but I suppose without being as ... blatant, as, like, Shannon is dead. Kanon is alive.

And yeah, I know that's what EP6 was for, but that was sort of Ryukishi going "There. If you don't get it after THIS, there's just nothing else to say.", and in the plot it was used by Battler more as a tool to provoke a Zanatos Gambit with the logic error for Beatrice than as a legitimate mystery for Erika to solve... <_<
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Old 2011-09-30, 16:04   Link #24733
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What you need for that theorical scenario is not necessarily very hard.
It wouldn't have to be necessarily in red but through an actual plot but basically you need to lock some facts akin to these.

Shannon didn't kill George.
Kanon didn't kill Jessica.
Jessica and George have been killed.
They didn't kill each other.
The only possible other culprits are Shannon and Kanon.
There is only one culprit.
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Old 2011-09-30, 16:36   Link #24734
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So, I was wondering if Touya's suicide attempt is reflected in any part of the meta-narrative. If it is, I'm wondering when. The end of episode 5, maybe?
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Old 2011-09-30, 16:44   Link #24735
Renall
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Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
What you need for that theorical scenario is not necessarily very hard.
It wouldn't have to be necessarily in red but through an actual plot but basically you need to lock some facts akin to these.

Shannon didn't kill George.
Kanon didn't kill Jessica.
Jessica and George have been killed.
They didn't kill each other.
The only possible other culprits are Shannon and Kanon.
There is only one culprit.
The problem, of course, is that it's entirely possible to quibble as to the nature of Shannon and Kanon and whether both were present when each killed. That's why I don't like the red very much. It's a game that explicitly sets up this ridiculous interpretation.

In my mind, a "proper" construction of this is a crime which is only possible by the aggregate actions of Shannon and Kanon while they are supposed to be distinctly separated. For instance, if Shannon and Kanon are meant to be in two separate places yet the actual crime would require a person to possess knowledge that is only possible to know if a person were actually in both locations, and no one is ever able to access these two locations except the people who are "supposed" to be in them. Thus, Shkanon would be necessary as Shannon and Kanon distinctly each have access to one location, meaning one person actually has access to both and thus, is the only person who could commit the crime as anyone else would have been prohibited entry to one of the two places.

EDIT: Imagine the following scenario...
  • For some reason, the two groups of survivors have become suspicious of each other and have separated. Kyrie is watching over the guesthouse and will only admit the following people: Shannon, Battler, Maria, Rosa, and Krauss. George is watching over the chapel and will only admit the following people: Kanon, Gohda, Eva, and Jessica. Their vigil is infallible and no one can enter unless the two of them permit it.
  • Someone (let's say Genji) is murdered in the guesthouse with an object that can only be found in the chapel while Kyrie and George have kept up their vigil.
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I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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Old 2011-09-30, 16:55   Link #24736
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So, I was wondering if Touya's suicide attempt is reflected in any part of the meta-narrative. If it is, I'm wondering when. The end of episode 5, maybe?
I've been wondering if he tried to toss himself down from a building, like Ange (in Ep 5 he jump down a window, and though he didn't aim to kill himself it wasn't as smooth as a fall as it looked at first).
At the end of Ep 3 he almost reaches the golden land, after all.
Other references can be the identity crisis he faced in Ep 4 when he disappeared... basically ceasing to exist for a while.
I've considered Ep 5 too and another reference can be the fact he ended up trapped by a logic error in Ep 6 and nearly catatonic.

Though I'm waiting Ep 8 to get more details about why he decided to attempt suicide and when.
Did he tried it after he got back his full memory or just a bit of it?
Was the knowledge of who was the culprit that pushed him to do it or the regret of not managing to save the others/being the only survivor?
Or merely the fact he couldn't cope with his memory slowly returning to taunt him?

(or did he began to think that Ikuko=Yasu was the culprit and was trying to escape from her?)
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Old 2011-09-30, 18:29   Link #24737
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I must be smoking something... without even realizing it.

I reviewed the part where I thought Touya mentioned something about it but found him mentioning nothing at all about any suicide attempt.
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Old 2011-09-30, 18:54   Link #24738
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
The problem, of course, is that it's entirely possible to quibble as to the nature of Shannon and Kanon and whether both were present when each killed. That's why I don't like the red very much. It's a game that explicitly sets up this ridiculous interpretation.

In my mind, a "proper" construction of this is a crime which is only possible by the aggregate actions of Shannon and Kanon while they are supposed to be distinctly separated. For instance, if Shannon and Kanon are meant to be in two separate places yet the actual crime would require a person to possess knowledge that is only possible to know if a person were actually in both locations, and no one is ever able to access these two locations except the people who are "supposed" to be in them. Thus, Shkanon would be necessary as Shannon and Kanon distinctly each have access to one location, meaning one person actually has access to both and thus, is the only person who could commit the crime as anyone else would have been prohibited entry to one of the two places.

EDIT: Imagine the following scenario...
  • For some reason, the two groups of survivors have become suspicious of each other and have separated. Kyrie is watching over the guesthouse and will only admit the following people: Shannon, Battler, Maria, Rosa, and Krauss. George is watching over the chapel and will only admit the following people: Kanon, Gohda, Eva, and Jessica. Their vigil is infallible and no one can enter unless the two of them permit it.
  • Someone (let's say Genji) is murdered in the guesthouse with an object that can only be found in the chapel while Kyrie and George have kept up their vigil.
I had something like that in mind but sorta to it's simplest and least uh mystery ish but yeah this works. Tho I don't like relying on non detective as vigil cause it's pretty much the same as relying on red.
Something like a room like Kinzo's with barred windows that can't be opened atop of it and verifying that none are inside and then that only Shannon and "future victim X" enters, and then a similar scenario with Kanon, with someone like detective Battler in both case watching the door.
It sounds sorta stupid but there's probably ways akin to Hideyoshi's pseudo murder in arc 5 to make this works. If he was really dead and the detective would've been the one hearing him dying and unable to enter from the other side of the door, and the room would've been really empty of anyone but Natsuhi, she couldn't not have been the culprit.

Edit: Heh even simpler without even a murder.
Ensure that a room is empty and that there's only one way to leave it.
Witness Shannon entering it and that none others enters it.
Witness that Kanon leaves it and none others.
Enter the room and find it completely empty.
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Old 2011-09-30, 19:52   Link #24739
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I must be smoking something... without even realizing it.

I reviewed the part where I thought Touya mentioned something about it but found him mentioning nothing at all about any suicide attempt.
Oh, okay. I've heard people talking about him attempting suicide more than once so I find interesting if this was actually never said...
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Old 2011-09-30, 20:50   Link #24740
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Oh, okay. I've heard people talking about him attempting suicide more than once so I find interesting if this was actually never said...
Probably talking about him jumping from the boat, but I would call that Battler attempting suicide, not Touya.
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