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Old 2011-12-22, 17:40   Link #26581
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
I think in a way the problem is more that no one can reach a theory that everyone else can accept as the truth.
That's kinda the job of a mystery writer. If anyone could do that we would be all famous mystery novel writers. That's really not something you can expect anyone to be able to pull it off. Making a theory that fits with the clues and everything is still comparatively easier than doing that while also making it sound compelling and clever.

This is such a hard objective to achieve that even famous writers do not always succeed.

Of course doing that requires more than a simple answer written in a few sentences. Recreating step by step the situation showing how the characters involved were lead to do what they did, what kind of thoughts they had, and so on, is what really helps creating that kind of outcome.

It's like the difference between saying "Kinzo was dead since the start of the game" and the whole first chapters of EP5. No matter how you look at it, it is a lot more convincing and interesting in the latter's case.
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Old 2011-12-22, 18:01   Link #26582
Renall
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I think "Kinzo is dead" is a good example of Ryukishi doing it right. All the pieces were there, it's the answer that makes the most sense, and none of the alternatives seem better than it.
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Old 2011-12-22, 18:32   Link #26583
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Pretty much. It was definitely the best "plot twist" Umineko had to offer.

Shkanon is an example of his doing it wrong, on the other hand. I even LIKE the idea and even I acknowledged that he did it all stupid.
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Old 2011-12-22, 19:57   Link #26584
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I got it! After some extensive thinking I figured out the three rules for Umineko! I know there is no confirmation, but I think its pretty close to the truth. In fact, its seems pretty easy to figure out once you look back on it. Now, before I begin, I guess I have to explain why Umineko actually has rules since not many people believe it does.

The main reason why I came to the conclusion why there are rules is because of Bernkastel's letter. Pretty much, Bernkastel was able to reason it out on her own that rules exist on Beatrice's gameboard and was able to draw some conclusions on her own. Now, the series itself refers to these rules alot, especially when they talk about Beatrice's Gameboard. Lambdadelta talks about it when she was Game Master, Battler does so as well, and Bern speaks of it when she was Game Master during EP7. So its easy to see that there are rules for Beatrice's game if you don't believe so, and these same rules are talked about in EP7.

To explain my theory of the rules, I have to talk about the relationship these rules can have since that's a very important of my theory. The most prominent example (and the only example) for these rules are Higurashi. Now the rules themselves don't need explaining but comparing their role, nature, and relationship is important. In Higurashi, Rule X is a tangible rule that acts as the intial front of the tragedy, distracting the player from what's going on behind the scenes. It's considered tangible because its only based on a single premise that can be added on to and it doesn't define how it is carried out as long as that premise is maintained. Rule Y is a specific rule that can't be changed. It also acts as the first step to figuring out what's really happening. The strange about Rule Y is that it has a cause and an effect that is independent of the other rules, making it the easiest to challenge but defeating it wouldn't stop Rule X or Z from being carried out. Rule Z acts as the initial cause for Rule X, making it possible to defeat Rule X. The thing about Rule Z is that it targets a specific part of the universe, meaning that in order to prevent Rule X, you need to take out that part. In Higurashi's case, Rule Z states that the Sonozaki's will be blamed for the incidents, making them a source of paranoia for the characters, you take away the blame, Rule X is defeated because there is no one to blame, leaving only Rule Y.

This however differs from the way the rules are connected in Umineko though their general nature is the same. The reason why I conclude that their nature is the same is because Bern doesn't talk about Rules according to nature rather she talks about their role and and how they are connected. In Umineko, Rule X plays a similar role as it did in Higurashi, acting as the initial front of the tragedy. However, Rule X's role is strengthened by taking its place as a major source of the tragedy. Rule Y is the same in both nature and role, it has a cause and effect as well as it acts an independent tragedy that hides behind Rule X. However, it takes Rule Z's place by acting as an inital cause for Rule X. Rule Z is the only one whose role has changed. Like in Higurashi, it targets a specific part of the universe, but instead of acting as a cause for Rule X it insteads disguises Rule X and Rule Y, just like Bern says.

Now that I bored you guys with details, onto the rules themselves. Rule X is Madness. Not very innovative of a conclusion is it? Well, it makes sense and is true. The reason being is that Ryukishi says himself that the characters go crazy, which is identified when they start to see golden butterflies, and Bern spots the rule quite easily saying "In other words, its like that story that always starts from June 20th." To futher push the golden butterflies as identifiers, think back to when Kanon was facing "Beatrice" during EP1 and note Beatrice's signature act of appearing and disappearing in a flurry of butterflies. Basically, the rule states that the characters will go crazy at some point in the game, some sooner or later, and it being a tangible rule, there is no specific detail or order. Now, like what was said before, Rule X is caused by Rule Y which states that an Explosion will occur if the adults don't find the gold together. The reasoning behind this conclusion are the letters which directly state that if they don't solve the epitaph then there are dire consequences. Then, when the Epitaph was solved, only one person went inside the secret room and nothing was fixed. Now the reason why this causes Rule X is because of the suspicion caused by the letters. With the adults being greedy, any possibilty of there being a third party or someone among them who are secretly plotting to gain money for themselves would cause them become suspicious of each other. And with the letter being read to the entire family and servants, everyone will begin to fear for their lives knowing that they have a time limit (for some, like the cousins, this won't kick in until the first set of murders). This simple combination of fear and paranoia would evolve to all out madness like it did in Higurashi. The last rule, Rule Z, is the Legend of Beatrice. Bernkastel states in her letter that Rule Z had an indefinite shape, saying that it was like a maze that can change form. Beatrice's Legend is the same because of its many interpretations in the story. Kinzo sees Beatrice as the miraculous witch that gave him gold, Maria sees her as an all- powerful witch, the adults only saw her as some fairytale as did the other cousins, and the servants held her up in high regard as the second master of the mansion. As Bern had noticed, the legend disguises Rule X and Y. In Rule X, the character's insanity is expressed in their delusions which includes Beatrice or something associated with (or holds an attribute of) her. For example, the Golden Butterfiles Kanon saw in the boiler room, his clash with her in Jessica's room, or Shannon's fight with her in Natsuhi's room. In each case, the legend obscures the truth since we are seeing hallucinations. For Rule Y, the letters are seemingly written by Beatrice and the End Game Event is generally includes and is caused by her.

Now, the implications of this could explain alot. For example, Yasu blames herself for what happened in the games. If she was the one who wrote the letters that caused everyone to get paranoid and go insane, it would make sense why she would. It also explains why Battler and Eva were trying to hide the truth because an entire family trying to kill each other out of madness is a pretty horrible story to tell.
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Old 2011-12-22, 20:32   Link #26585
UsagiTenpura
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I think these three rules gather even less convergence in fan theories then whatever happened on prime (should it exist/should anything have happened).

In any case, madness doesn't even come close to explain why everyone "hallucinates" the same things.
Also, your rule Z doesn't seem like it explains anything to me, and is too similar to Higurashi's rule Z which shouldn't give Bernkastel that much troubles.
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Old 2011-12-22, 20:46   Link #26586
ErenselTheJester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
I think these three rules gather even less convergence in fan theories then whatever happened on prime (should it exist/should anything have happened).

In any case, madness doesn't even come close to explain why everyone "hallucinates" the same things.
Also, your rule Z doesn't seem like it explains anything to me, and is too similar to Higurashi's rule Z which shouldn't give Bernkastel that much troubles.
The hallucinations are caused by Rule Z, people are placing their suspicions on an unknown "Beatrice" and the woman on the portrait is the only thing they know of Beatrice. Plus, I said that it can be anything associated with her or has her attributes. In EP2, the servants saw a demonic, half- dead Kanon with a weakness for spiderwebs, Beatrice had that same weakness. And the problem with Rule Z is that it is hard to pinpoint considering that that it isn't definite at all. In the same way, there's no definition for Beatrice considering that anyone can go by that name and that there are different interpretations of Beatrice. In fact, that's what makes Rule Z less similar to Higurashi's Rule Z because Higurashi's Rule Z included the Sonozakis, a family, while Umineko's Rule Z is the Legend of Beatrice which doesn't have a definition at all.

And I'm pretty sure you can make theories that comply with the rules.
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Old 2011-12-22, 21:56   Link #26587
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I guess I'll go ahead and post my current understanding of the Rules. Most of this is from the time of EP6, with some minor revisions to take into account EP8 knowledge.

Spoiler for Rule X:

Spoiler for Rule Y:

Spoiler for Rule Z:
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Old 2011-12-22, 23:32   Link #26588
ErenselTheJester
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I guess I'll go ahead and post my current understanding of the Rules. Most of this is from the time of EP6, with some minor revisions to take into account EP8 knowledge.

Spoiler for Rule X:

Spoiler for Rule Y:

Spoiler for Rule Z:
Everything makes sense though Rule Z is kind of iffy.
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Old 2011-12-23, 00:43   Link #26589
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I still think that Rule Z might imply to the fact that all the episodes is fictional, so they might explain different culprit theories depends on their writer's intention or interpretation.

Rule X and Y seemed kinda fits, though.

Anyways, is there anyone amongst us might have a copy of Our Confession this Comiket?

Yes, without knowing the solution all the interpretation seemed tiring somehows....at least they lasts longer than Higurashi, I think. But I rather not know the truth than the solution turns out to be something...not logical at best.

Btw, I see this in EP8 thread:


Spoiler for Ep 5:
[/QUOTE]

Make you wonder why did Ryukishi change his mind later on, isn't it?
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Old 2011-12-23, 00:52   Link #26590
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Originally Posted by ndqanh_vn View Post
I still think that Rule Z might imply to the fact that all the episodes is fictional, so they might explain different culprit theories depends on their writer's intention or interpretation.
Perfectly possible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ndqanh_vn View Post
Yes, without knowing the solution all the interpretation seemed tiring somehows....at least they lasts longer than Higurashi, I think. But I rather not know the truth than the solution turns out to be something...not logical at best.
Its best to start crossing your fingers then.

But, yeah, its no surprise really. No author in his right mind would leave a mystery unanswered, that would be wrong for him and to us.
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Old 2011-12-23, 05:56   Link #26591
Zork
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All the talk about rules X, Y, and Z sent me to go look at the TIPS again, and it may finally have helped me. Here's hoping this is the last stab I take at Umineko...

Spoiler for Rule X:


Spoiler for Rule Y:


Spoiler for Rule Z:
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Old 2011-12-23, 08:51   Link #26592
Cao Ni Ma
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No need use spoilers in here.

For the most part I agree with you in x and y. The problem with z is that it would literally make RK07 a plagiarist hack despite him saying that he really didnt want it to end that way.
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Old 2011-12-23, 09:40   Link #26593
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It is the most valid interpretation of Rule Z based on the actual text, though. I'm not in the position to go "Plagiarism? There's no way he'd do that!" anymore. The mere fact that it would be a disappointment or discredit to the author doesn't mean it wasn't true all along, after all. Not the first instance of that we've seen.
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Old 2011-12-23, 10:26   Link #26594
UsagiTenpura
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My own interpretation of rule Z is not going to be liked at all, but it's that the truth is not set in stone and can be changed later - for as long as it hasn't been contradicted in red.
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Old 2011-12-23, 15:53   Link #26595
AuraTwilight
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We all seem to be in agreement about X and Y, but what if Rule Z ACTUALLY CHANGES IN DIFFERENT GAMES?
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Old 2011-12-23, 16:33   Link #26596
UsagiTenpura
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
We all seem to be in agreement about X and Y, but what if Rule Z ACTUALLY CHANGES IN DIFFERENT GAMES?
Rule Z: Ryuukishi's whim?
Then again that might explain why knox works in arc 5 and might not have done so previously heh...
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Old 2011-12-23, 16:37   Link #26597
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Originally Posted by ndqanh_vn View Post
Anyways, is there anyone amongst us might have a copy of Our Confession this Comiket?
The booklet isn't out until probably December 31st. You can get one if you line up for probably several hours to get in to Comike, where you can line up for an hour or two to get it. 8)

Or you could just pre-order your own here as I've done. You can't get the booklet with the two games after the games are released on the 31st.
http://www.amiami.com/top/detail/det...%24pagecnt%3D1

So, for those of us who have ordered from a store it will still take it a few days to arrive...
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Old 2011-12-24, 11:08   Link #26598
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
We all seem to be in agreement about X and Y, but what if Rule Z ACTUALLY CHANGES IN DIFFERENT GAMES?
I doubt that, it has to be something that's the same throughout all the games otherwise it would be impossible for us to figure or it wouldn't be a rule.

The way I see Bernkastel's interpretations of Rule Z. The fact that it has a "lethally bad" affinity doesn't mean that she can't figure it out, it just means that its something that's not compatible with the way she works. As for Lambda, it works fine regardless of whether it has a bad affinity to her or not because of the way she works things. Bern sees Rule Z as a map that changes shapes, but I think the most important part of it is the fact that it changes shape "flexibly." In other words, it doesn't change into to something altogether different, rather it rearranges itself. Furthermore, she says that it is explainable referring to it being like a Jan- Ken- Pon game, which is Rock- Paper- Scissors to us. Basically, this is a maze where one shape conquers another then is defeated by a stronger shape, going in a constant cycle. Now I think the most important piece of information is that Rule Z is made so that you can't get to Rule X or Y. So, even if you were able to get what Rule X and Y were, you would end up confused when you get to Rule Z and even moreso if you try to figure out Rule Z. The only two things that I can see fit into this description: The Catbox of the Rokkenjima Incident, where one truth would prevail over another, and the Legend of Beatrice, where one view of her conquers another, however the Rokkenjima Catbox is caused by the explosion which is definitely a rule, so it can't be Rule Z if it can't obscure the explosion.
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Old 2011-12-24, 12:31   Link #26599
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Quote:
I doubt that, it has to be something that's the same throughout all the games otherwise it would be impossible for us to figure or it wouldn't be a rule.
The rule is that it changes as a literal shifting maze. :P
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Old 2011-12-24, 17:22   Link #26600
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I was just over on the EP6 thread where the discussion was whether Kanon counted as a person in red and in EP6, no, he wasn't really, it seems.

If we're talking about shifting rules, could whether Shannon and Kanon (and maybe even Beatrice, i.e. EP2) be counted as real people shift every episode? Because EP6 very cleanly dodges the existence of Kanon...

And maybe it doesn't shift randomly, exactly, but maybe there's a natural progression towards favoring Shannon, somehow... hmmmm.

EDIT: Hmmmm, I dunno. Going over EP1-4, it seems like Shannon wins out every time and eventually becomes the surviving persona...
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