AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > Anime Discussion > Older Series > Retired > Umineko

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2012-01-12, 02:25   Link #26981
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Umineko is also filled with coincidental things that are harder to believe, like how a baby fell from a cliff but didn't die or how Kinzo and Beatrice were the only survivors in the military base, how Kinzo dies the same night Yasu solves the epitaph, how an Italian submarine decides to carry gold in Japan and how the Japanese government conveniently forgot the explosive (or couldn't care less that Kinzo had it).
Witch hunters even found suspicious how Ange remained at home...
"A coincidence is an event notable for its occurring in conjunction with other conditions." The events you listed are unlikely things, but not (with one exception) coincidences. The one exception, the timing of Kinzo's death, I don't completely buy as a coincidence anyway (I think that Yasu solving the epitaph is somehow related to Kinzo's death, or that the story we saw was somehow embellished for dramatic effect).

It's unlikely, but not hard to imagine that there was a typhoon on Rokkenjima on Oct 4th and 5th, 1986. It's also unusual that someone might write a mystery story about a future Oct 4th that included a typhoon. What is truly fishy is that we apparently get both.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
weather was often bad when the conference took place and the conference always took place around that time.
Guessing rain is one thing, but guessing a typhoon is quite another. Niijima is about 40 km away from the Japanese mainland and typhoon classification starts at around 400 km in diameter (most are considerably larger), so basically if a typhoon hits Rokkenjima, it's pretty much guaranteed to be hitting the mainland too. I've done some research:
Quote:
An average of 2.6 typhoons have made landfall on the four major islands of Japan since records on typhoons have been kept starting in 1951. No typhoons made landfall in 1984, 1986, 2000 and 2008. A record 10 made landfall in 2004.
The heaviest part of the typhoon season (August-October) narrows things a bit, but just based off of this basic information, the chance that a typhoon might make landfall on a theoretical Rokkenjima some time on Oct. 4th in a given year is in the realm of ~2%. However, Yasu does more than that: She predicts the typhoon will land on a given afternoon. That puts things around 0.5%, which is still just a start before considering things like getting the duration of the typhoon's passage over Rokkenjima right, getting the sunny weather on the morning of Oct. 4th right, and getting the more precise rainfall patterns of Rokkenjima on that day right (1986 precipitation radar technology from the mainland could easily detect whether it was raining on Rokkenjima at any given time).

Of course you could suppose that the fictions' weather patterns did not match up with Umineko-Prime's weather patterns. We have a clear example of something like this with Eva's death in most of the fictions while she seems to have survived in what seems to be Umineko-Prime. But unlike the situation with Eva there is nothing that tells us, or even suggests, that the fictions are in any way discrepant with Umineko-Prime when it comes to the weather.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Random explosive maybe but Rokkenjima was a military base. Where people died. Where an Italian submarine arrived. There should be more than 1 report about the military base existence.
I think before handing it to Kinzo they should have at least checked it for residual weapons and explosive.
You're thinking like a person living in a place and time with certain expectations of safety standards and governmental integrity that just did not exist in Japan at the end of WWII. Between the chaos and corruption of the time and Kinzo's wealth it's entirely plausible, nay probable, that he could find some way around any kind of government inspection.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toku View Post
It's possible for us to say that Ange, being a 6-year old girl, had no significant role in Yasu's mystery. And there's already many theories that the first two episodes of the sound novel are edited versions of the first two message bottles, so perhaps Ange was edited out after the fact.
That's a lot of editing. She'd be scarred and crying and screaming and in need of constant protection and supervision by her brother. It would be really different, especially with Battler as the protagonist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toku View Post
Hm... Even if it's 6 years ago though, this would make his memory really terrible. Ange, despite having been 5 the last time she saw him, still knew at a glance that this wasn't Kinzo.
Are you sure? After growing up without seeing Kinzo since she was 4 years old (he wasn't alive during the 1985 conference either) it's easy to imagine that any memories Ange did have of him would have been overshadowed by Eva's impression of him, and the media's, and her parents' while they were still alive.

I tend to think there's some truth to both versions of Kinzo, and that he was a more complicated person than either depiction presents him as.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
And of course, if Yasu is organizing a game, why would she kill people for real? She doesn't even have a motive. Not to mention that taking the blame is the whole reason she played Beatrice.
This is so true. In OC it's almost comical how pointless Beatrice murdering people is, even when we have full access to her thought process.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
Considering prediction of the storm and that Ange was absent that year, I'm leaving that to the wonders of culprit who can predicts things no one should be able to (as far as the mystery story goes).
Spoiler for And then there were none.:
Call me a straw-splitter, but I think they're quite different.
Spoiler for And then there were none:

That's why I don't usually focus on Ange's absence when I argue that the bottle-stories were written after the incident, because Ange's absence can be contrived by people in all sorts of ways. The weather, though? You can't fake a "coincidence" like that. The typhoon was either a true coincidence or was written/edited in after the writer got a reliable weather report for Oct. 4 1986. I've done some research: Reliable typhoon prediction was only about 3 days in advance with 1986 technology. It does leave a small window of time (from Oct. 1-4) for the writer to weave her stories before the incident, but that's it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
And Ikuko met Toya merely DAYS after the Rokkenjima incident.
When was this said?

As far as I know it's not clear how much time passed between October 6th 1986 and when Touya encountered Ikuko on the street, nor is it clear how he got there, nor is it clear why a wealthy hermit-woman with no social life and no need to ever leave her house would be driving in a rain storm.

Touya at first suspected that Ikuko was the person who hit him with the car, and according to the ???? he apparently suspected it for quite a while before being convinced that she didn't... So did Ikuko reeeeeally just innocently find Touya unconscious in the middle of the road?

Everything about their encounter is fishy and weird.
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 04:01   Link #26982
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
Quote:
When was this said?

As far as I know it's not clear how much time passed between October 6th 1986 and when Touya encountered Ikuko on the street, nor is it clear how he got there, nor is it clear why a wealthy hermit-woman with no social life and no need to ever leave her house would be driving in a rain storm.
He has amnesia and has sustained recent injuries. There's no way he's been stumbling around for more than a few days without authorities noticing him or getting killed.

Quote:
Touya at first suspected that Ikuko was the person who hit him with the car, and according to the ???? he apparently suspected it for quite a while before being convinced that she didn't... So did Ikuko reeeeeally just innocently find Touya unconscious in the middle of the road?
Her car didn't sustain any damage, so....

Quote:
Everything about their encounter is fishy and weird.
That's because Ikuko is a millenia-old unaging super-witch deity. DUH.
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 04:11   Link #26983
Snow_Storm
Welcome to primetime!
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: St. Louis
Age: 25
So, just discover the major spoilers for the final episode of Umineko Chiru VN.

First off, I kinda hate it but at the same time, did leave me a bit sad because of the various bittersweet endings and plus, it's the end of an amazing saga. And the fact I just now discover the ending two years later.
__________________


Snow_Storm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 06:46   Link #26984
UsagiTenpura
Echo of Noise
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Yesterday!
Send a message via Skype™ to UsagiTenpura
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Call me a straw-splitter, but I think they're quite different.
Spoiler for And then there were none:

That's why I don't usually focus on Ange's absence when I argue that the bottle-stories were written after the incident, because Ange's absence can be contrived by people in all sorts of ways. The weather, though? You can't fake a "coincidence" like that. The typhoon was either a true coincidence or was written/edited in after the writer got a reliable weather report for Oct. 4 1986. I've done some research: Reliable typhoon prediction was only about 3 days in advance with 1986 technology. It does leave a small window of time (from Oct. 1-4) for the writer to weave her stories before the incident, but that's it.
Ah, I'm not arguing that storm prediction is impossible, however "that a storm occurred the same day as the stories said it did" is a coincidence that's, to me, about as possible as ... what we were talking about in and then there were none.

In both case, it's the idea that "it most definitively could've failed" but if it did "it wouldn't have make a story". The number of "miraculous coincidences that works in the author's favor" in a story where a given culprit does a serial murder in a closed off island without ever being caught (and in such a cryptic way too) is already way too high to debate it further. To do it IMO is forgetting that Umineko is a fiction, and one where such miracle coincidences are raining everywhere.
10 tons of gold from nowhere, Kinzo's incredible luck with money from that point on, hiding a mansion and 10 tons of gold for 30 years without anyone ever finding out, much/most about Rokkenjima altogether, that "Beatrice 2's daughter/son" ended up being the one who solved the epitaph, that Kinzo died the very moment after, that Kinzo's death was actually successfully concealed for nearly 2 years, mostly everything about ShKanon never being found out, obviously every murder succeeding, that any message bottles was ever found, that Kinzo/Beatrice 1 got away with hiding everything on an island where like 40 people died, that Battler miraculously survived nearly drowning + being seemingly hit by a car + somehow a 900 tons bomb (tho became Toyah, whatever), that Yasu survived falling a cliff, that Genji and cie managed to somehow convince Kinzo/Natsuhi/Krauss to have a 6 years old maid without revealing Yasu's identity, that Yasu never decided to just leave the island before Kinzo could unveil his epitaph in the first place, that Yasu developped a Beatrice obsession while being unaware that she was Beatrice's daughter, and ultimately that both Battler and Beatrice managed to "remember/figure it out" leading to a sort of happy ending (for their meta selves at least). There are probably many many more but I can't think of them at the moment.
All things that works amazingly well to the author's convenience. So at that point really, what's the storm and Ange being absent fitting what Ryuukishi wanted?
That everything is so similar to a fiction is actually a huge reason why I do not think of Ange's future as "prime" but rather as "a fiction equal to Lion's".
Remember that Ange was originally introduced as from "a possible future" and tho the odds weren't claimed to be as low as with Lion by Bernkastel, they were sorta low.
How would "a storm really happened and Ange really wasn't there, however contrary to the stories, Eva survived" goes as evidence that things weren't planned as much as they just happened that way, by coincidence, making them a relatively low odd.

I mean, it's by no way certain, but they mentioned such storms was common for family reunions + that Ange was often sick around that period of the year. I don't think the odds that it happened are actually as low as Battler/Toyah's fate, for instance.

Edit: Uh this actually barely changes anything but over rechecking arc 1's script I realized that Battler introduces George as "turning 23 this year". Unless it's confirmed elsewhere he's 23, it looks like he's 22... making his six years younger self 16 and not 17 (doesn't change much but even a year is giving him some redemption).

Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2012-01-12 at 07:11.
UsagiTenpura is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 07:28   Link #26985
Jaden
Witch of Betrayal
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Age: 26
If Yasu bribed the boatman (she took out the phone and radio anyway), a closed circle could have been created even without a storm. So she doesn't need to predict it by much, only revise the stories a bit upon finding out that a storm is coming.

Or alternatively, she wasn't going to do anything without a storm. Just like nothing would have happened if Battler decided to stay home.
__________________
Jaden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 08:57   Link #26986
Toku
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight
Except Ange talks about how incredibly, unusually young and timeless Ikuko looks. Shes dedicates a whole page of the epilogue to it. It's not just Ryukishi being a lazy artist.
Quote:
Though the woman who called herself Ikuko was far older than me, she seemed to be unbelievably youthful. It wasn't because she was good with makeup or dressed like a younger woman. It feels strange to say it... There was a strange mystique about her ......as though she was immortal and never-aging.
Isn't this just Ange's opinion? I honestly never saw much real significance in this. And she never said "Ikuko looks like she's in her 20's" or something ridiculous like that. Also, instead of saying literally that Ikuko is unbelievably youthful, she seems to be comparing herself to Ikuko, so I think she's speaking relatively.

I thought this was just Ryukishi's way of making it clear that she's Featherine (or rather, one half of Featherine).

Quote:
This doesn't solve as many problems as you think. What about her having an entire identity and backround? What about having a whole crew of servants, and a driver's license, and pretty much an entire LIFE that requires upkeep she can't of dedicated?

also there's an entire ROOM of manuscripts that have nothing to do with Rokkenjima that servants and publishers have apparently seen. When the hell did she get the time to write these?

She can't of kept up the Ikuko thing WHILE being Yasu because her Ikuko identity requires her to be all-but-confined to her mansion. Ikuko does not have the OPTION of running a double life. If Yasu takes on Ikuko's persona she cannot take it back off. And Ikuko met Toya merely DAYS after the Rokkenjima incident.
Just like how Genji created a new identity for Yasu even though Yasu wasn't registered because she's illegitimate. And there's nothing saying that she actually had a driver's license.

And Ikuko's life up until that point doesn't seem to have been the kind of huge thing you're talking about. She seemed to have just been writing mystery stories, and it wasn't anything she ever got recognition for. It also didn't seem like she'd written hundreds of them or anything. I think it was more like a hobby. She stayed in her house and didn't really ever go out.

Which is another thing. If she's on house arrest, why was she allowed to go out driving whenever she pleases and bring back a guy she found on the street and use the money she was getting from her family (who was supposed to be thoroughly ashamed of her) to take care of him secretly? Those things she said about herself back then don't really add up in the first place.

But we never saw anything of the Hachijo family. I think it's apparent that she's the one that's actually in charge over there. There's not even any implication that the Hachijos exist other than the things Ikuko was saying.

The publishers? The mention of publishers implies that Ikuko has published stories and received fame for it. None of that has happened yet. This Ikuko only mentioned that she sent in one story at one point, and it got rejected. After that, she lost heart and didn't send another in until Tohya and her wrote a story together and he persuaded her to publish it.

How many stories has this Ikuko written? There's not really any implication that it's a huge number. Until then, she had only been writing stories for herself, and nobody ever read them.

Which, by the way, how many stories did Yasu write? Just for the 1986 conference alone, she wrote >3 stories that seemed rather detailed. And of course, she's always loved mysteries. But there's nothing that says that, when living on Rokkenjima, Yasu has to write stories related to Rokkenjima. She could have written any kind of story she wanted. And she does have a great imagination.

She's not running a double life. After all, I never said she was. I only said she was planning to leave Rokkenjima and had prepared a place to stay, and that she had been writing Mystery stories in her spare time.

And she does have spare time. A significant part of Yasu's story had her saying something like this: "by getting work done efficiently, you can finish earlier and have spare time to do what you want." After that, we started seeing her reading and discussing bunches of mysteries with Kumasawa. Where'd she get the time for all of that?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer
That's a lot of editing. She'd be scarred and crying and screaming and in need of constant protection and supervision by her brother. It would be really different, especially with Battler as the protagonist.
I didn't say Yasu did the editing. I only said that the message bottles and the Episodes we read could have been different. Which means that Ryukishi did the editing.

And well, Battler's role in the stories was usually not that huge. He never even had Detective's Authority, as is made clear by the fact that he saw Beatrice in earlier parts of the story. Off the top of my head, I can name the time he saw her on the balcony in EP4, after most everyone else had died. Now I'm not trying to say that Battler wasn't there in the stories, I'm only saying that I don't think it's that big of a change... Because I don't see Piece!Battler as a protagonist in any way.

After all, how much editing has already been done to these stories? The fantasy scenes are only "fabricated processes leading up to the same result" and there are a LOT of them, to the point where a great deal of the story in the episodes only has metaphorical significance at best.

Quote:
Are you sure? After growing up without seeing Kinzo since she was 4 years old (he wasn't alive during the 1985 conference either) it's easy to imagine that any memories Ange did have of him would have been overshadowed by Eva's impression of him, and the media's, and her parents' while they were still alive.

I tend to think there's some truth to both versions of Kinzo, and that he was a more complicated person than either depiction presents him as.
True.

Well, at any rate, even if happy!Kinzo has some truth to him, I can't accept that the real Kinzo is 100% like that.

BATTLER's goal wasn't to give her the truth... And I'm pretty sure he admitted to some extent that he had just been feeding her illusions.

Quote:
The typhoon was either a true coincidence or was written/edited in after the writer got a reliable weather report for Oct. 4 1986.
Just wanted to say that I think the typhoon in the stories was probably there as a plot device to create a closed circle. It was probably going to show up in the stories regardless, but as for whether or not it shows up on Prime, who knows. Well, as you said though, the weather might not have been the same on Prime at all.

Quote:
When was this said?

As far as I know it's not clear how much time passed between October 6th 1986 and when Touya encountered Ikuko on the street, nor is it clear how he got there, nor is it clear why a wealthy hermit-woman with no social life and no need to ever leave her house would be driving in a rain storm.

Touya at first suspected that Ikuko was the person who hit him with the car, and according to the ???? he apparently suspected it for quite a while before being convinced that she didn't... So did Ikuko reeeeeally just innocently find Touya unconscious in the middle of the road?

Everything about their encounter is fishy and weird.
I never thought about this way, but it's actually completely possible. That's very interesting.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight
He has amnesia and has sustained recent injuries. There's no way he's been stumbling around for more than a few days without authorities noticing him or getting killed.
Nope. When was it ever said that the amnesia and injuries are from drowning? Those were only implied to be from the traffic accident.

Certainly, you could say that he drowned on Oct. 6, 1986, or you could say that the drowning scene was one big metaphor, but either way...

After he ended up on Niijima, it could have been months before the traffic accident occurred, for all we know.
Toku is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 09:55   Link #26987
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
He has amnesia and has sustained recent injuries. There's no way he's been stumbling around for more than a few days without authorities noticing him or getting killed.
I'm pretty sure we already had this discussion and the time of their meeting can't actually be adequately determined.

Plus you never know. Maybe Battler was perfectly fine and living on the down-low for several years after escaping unharmed, only to get clocked by some negligent sonofabitch and suffer brain damage.

Why did he never contact Ange? He was gonna, but he kept putting it off because he hates her. Everyone in her family hated her. You see how few shits they gave about her! They mocked her diarrhea and vomiting for crying out loud.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 10:21   Link #26988
ndqanh_vn
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post

Why did he never contact Ange? He was gonna, but he kept putting it off because he hates her. Everyone in her family hated her. You see how few shits they gave about her! They mocked her diarrhea and vomiting for crying out loud.
Uhm, are you really serious, Renall?


There's one thing I don't like about Yasu-Ikuko theory. It made the ending lost its emotional aspect somehow. And it's kinda cheap. There's just some thing seriously wrong in the vision that Yasu somehow survived the crap she at least partly created, managed to become famous for her knowledge of it, seemed to live a free life and kept her mouth shut despite her probably knowledge that the victims' family members must be suffering for the incident. It's very different from the guilt - burdened Beatrice/Yasu.

I can't put my thought very clear...but seriously, there's something very messed up in it. Morally messed up.
ndqanh_vn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 10:30   Link #26989
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndqanh_vn View Post
Uhm, are you really serious, Renall?
Not really, but I'm not entirely kidding either. Seriously, read the few parts where they even mention Ange (and all the parts where they seem to forget she exists). Family's a bunch of sociopaths who make fun of her illness and ignore her existence when it's inconvenient to them personally.
Quote:
There's one thing I don't like about Yasu-Ikuko theory. It made the ending lost its emotional aspect somehow. And it's kinda cheap. There's just some thing seriously wrong in the vision that Yasu somehow survived the crap she at least partly created, managed to become famous for her knowledge of it, seemed to live a free life and kept her mouth shut despite her probably knowledge that the victims' family members must be suffering for the incident. It's very different from the guilt - burdened Beatrice/Yasu.

I can't put my thought very clear...but seriously, there's something very messed up in it. Morally messed up.
It is. Unless she's innocent.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 10:42   Link #26990
Toku
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndqanh_vn View Post
There's one thing I don't like about Yasu-Ikuko theory. It made the ending lost its emotional aspect somehow. And it's kinda cheap. There's just some thing seriously wrong in the vision that Yasu somehow survived the crap she at least partly created, managed to become famous for her knowledge of it, seemed to live a free life and kept her mouth shut despite her probably knowledge that the victims' family members must be suffering for the incident. It's very different from the guilt - burdened Beatrice/Yasu.

I can't put my thought very clear...but seriously, there's something very messed up in it. Morally messed up.
No one ever said she didn't feel guilty. I think it's already more than apparent that Yasu certainly did feel guilty, despite the fact that she apparently didn't really do anything more than try to stage a game for Battler.

Though, I really don't know what you think she's going to go do to help the other survivors. I doubt either Eva or Ange would be too thrilled to see her face. To Eva, she would be a servant who has gravely overstepped their bounds, most likely. And Ange really doesn't know a thing about her. And we know from EP8 that if she told Ange the truth, it would only hurt her and cause her to reject it completely.

Actually, all 3 of the other survivors seem like they would prefer it if the truth was kept secret. If she were to go out and reveal something like that, I'm pretty sure that would just be betrayal. It definitely wouldn't be helping them. Eva in particular is willing to be branded the culprit just to keep it secret.

I don't see a single problem here.
Toku is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 10:49   Link #26991
CrimsonMoonMist
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Age: 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Not really, but I'm not entirely kidding either. Seriously, read the few parts where they even mention Ange (and all the parts where they seem to forget she exists). Family's a bunch of sociopaths who make fun of her illness and ignore her existence when it's inconvenient to them personally.
It's pretty normal for kids to be weak to stress,
I was, and still have yet to completely outgrow it.
Can't go around making a scene about such a trivial thing.
It sounds bad with diarreah and vomiting (in my case, I would get an upset stomach and get nausios, sometimes even work up a small fever,
but I wouldn't actually vomit unless they took me with them),
but it's just that weak bodies tackle stress badly.
When they don't have to be confronted with the source of it,
it usually fades (I was sent to my grandmother a lot because I couldn't tackle many situations and it went away pretty quickly).
I can hardly think my parents ever went around worrying about my condition, at least not visibly since it was a completely normal occurence to our family.
Back when Battler joked about it, he did start off just telling how the situation was, then slipped into his usual less-than-tactful behavior,
I don't think there was any ill will in there, that's just how he is.

Last edited by CrimsonMoonMist; 2012-01-12 at 11:34.
CrimsonMoonMist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 13:13   Link #26992
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
All things that works amazingly well to the author's convenience. So at that point really, what's the storm and Ange being absent fitting what Ryuukishi wanted?
It's not about what RK07 wanted; as an omnipotent author he can make up whatever specific setting he wants in his fictions, but that doesn't mean that they will correlate to his world (real life). For Yasu it should be the same. She can write however she wants, but for what she writes to coincidentally correlate to things that happen in the future of her world is too convenient for her.

You're saying that Prime!Yasu wrote several different versions of a murder mystery that all included a typhoon "just because" and then there happened to actually be a typhoon closed circle that matched the same timing and duration in Prime. And this is nothing to say about accurately predicting Ange's absence or accurately predicting the significance of 24:00 Oct. 5, both of which make explaining everything even more complicated.

It's so much cleaner if you suppose the bottles to be written post-incident. All you have to do is suppose Yasu is secretly alive somewhere. With some tricks from her it takes care of the "happen to find the bottles" coincidence too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaden View Post
If Yasu bribed the boatman (she took out the phone and radio anyway), a closed circle could have been created even without a storm. So she doesn't need to predict it by much, only revise the stories a bit upon finding out that a storm is coming.
I hear this "revise" idea from time to time and I just can't accept it. The difficulty in restructuring the narrative is hard enough, but there's also the fact that the bottle-stories are physically hand-written; it's not that easy to just add or remove a major ongoing event like that to the physical text. You may as well rewrite the whole damn thing.

I can sooner accept that Yasu wrote her stories from scratch as soon as she had a weather report than she wrote the stories but edited the typhoon in later. But, I don't believe that either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toku View Post
I didn't say Yasu did the editing. I only said that the message bottles and the Episodes we read could have been different. Which means that Ryukishi did the editing.
I didn't say Yasu did either. My problem is that if the stories were edited that much, they're becoming pretty useless when it comes to providing information about Prime and we may as well throw up our hands at that point. Also, why would Ange be edited out? If it's to make it conform with known reality, why not also edit it so that Eva lived?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Why did he never contact Ange? He was gonna, but he kept putting it off because he hates her. Everyone in her family hated her. You see how few shits they gave about her! They mocked her diarrhea and vomiting for crying out loud.
Or, you know, Battler's a culprit.
Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 13:39   Link #26993
Toku
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I didn't say Yasu did either. My problem is that if the stories were edited that much, they're becoming pretty useless when it comes to providing information about Prime and we may as well throw up our hands at that point. Also, why would Ange be edited out? If it's to make it conform with known reality, why not also edit it so that Eva lived?
Ah. That's true. I can't really find a way to argue against the Ange problem then...

I could say that Ange's future, where she hadn't been able to go to the conference, isn't necessarily Prime... But that makes it confusing.

I could also say that, since Ange tends to have issues with stress anyway, the chances of her not being able to go aren't that low, and thus Yasu was easily able to predict it... But, I don't know.

I really just don't think she could have written those stories that fast, if she did in fact write them afterwards.

Then again, I seem to recall that Ikuko is very skilled at writing manually... If I say that Yasu=Ikuko, I think I could make this work.

And it would also explain why Yasu knew that the bomb would go off and create a cat box for these stories... Because it already had gone off.
Toku is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 14:13   Link #26994
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
Quote:
Just like how Genji created a new identity for Yasu even though Yasu wasn't registered because she's illegitimate.
Fabricating a newborn child and fabricating an adult woman are magnitudes apart.

The rest doesn't really answer my complaints.
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 15:18   Link #26995
jjblue1
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Spoiler cuts for lenght...

Spoiler for replies to Toku:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazar View Post
There is something that has been bugging me since a couple of days.
She didn't really have to know. The messages doesn't tell exactly what had happened, and the two messages that were found differed in the way the crimes were carried. Also neither of them mentioned Eva surviving.
So Yasu might have merely wrote a setting that seemed likely/convenient (family conferences were often held with bad weather and Ange often couldn't take part to them due to illness) and have guessed it right.
Spoiler for replies to AuraTwilight:


Spoiler for replies to Wanderer:
jjblue1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 15:25   Link #26996
AuraTwilight
The True Culprit
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
Send a message via AIM to AuraTwilight Send a message via MSN to AuraTwilight
Quote:
The problem is that 'Our confession' seems to imply she really planned to kill the people who were taking part to the mystery game... so I really hope it'll get translated soon so I'll be able to judge with my eyes.
She only does so with a meta-motive that acknowledges the fictional nature of the gameboard...whiiich implies she has no REAL motive for REALLY killing people.

Quote:
Well, I think if Genji could convert Kinzo's gold in money and entrust a baby to an orphanage but make it look like said baby isn't even born (or even entrusted Yasu when she was 3 and told them she was a newborn) he could create for her a fake identity and said fake identity could get a driving licence.
There's ORDERS OF MAGNITUDES different between changing the name of an orphaned baby and creating an adult woman identity with a full on family, estate, staff, etc.

Moreover, since Yasu is strongly suggested to be suicidal and/or wanting to shack up with one of the three Ushiromiya cousins, WHY did she even bother?

Quote:
I generally took it as an hint that too was a fantasy ending.
I mean for the trick ending we've Erika showing up, for this one we've Ikuko not aging.
It could be that both ending are merely two different theories for what could have happened to Ange.

The problem with Ikuko being Featherine is that Ikuko and Featherine's manner of speaking differ... which is weird.
Same with Featherine and Hanyuu. :3
__________________
When the Silent Spirits Cry: An Umineko/Silent Hill crossover fanfiction
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4565173&postcount=531
AuraTwilight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 15:55   Link #26997
jjblue1
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
She only does so with a meta-motive that acknowledges the fictional nature of the gameboard...whiiich implies she has no REAL motive for REALLY killing people.
Personally I hope so but I'll wait till I'll manage to read 'Our confession' before giving a final judgement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
There's ORDERS OF MAGNITUDES different between changing the name of an orphaned baby and creating an adult woman identity with a full on family, estate, staff, etc.

Moreover, since Yasu is strongly suggested to be suicidal and/or wanting to shack up with one of the three Ushiromiya cousins, WHY did she even bother?
We really know little about Yasu.
We can't confirm if Prime Yasu was really suicidal or if her being suicidal was merely a meta motive for piece Yasu/Shannon to kill herself.
... and we don't know if she planned to hook up with one of the cousins.

My idea is that:
- Yasu didn't think she could either marry Jessica or George... however George was becoming a bit more pressing for her to stall things further.
- Yasu wanted to 'kill her Shannon and Kanon's identities' disappearing from Rokkenjima so she prepared another identity for herself as legally she's Sayo Yasuda, which is Shannon's real name. Causing others to believe Shannon is dead would mean to 'kill' Sayo as well.
- Battler came back so she reconsidered faking her dead and leaving and faked a murder game... after which she might have left anyway (Ryukishi said something about how Shannon, Kanon and Beato all needed to die).
- People dies however Yasu isn't the culprit. And here we might have various possibilities as:
1) she's not aware people are really dead as she still think they're faking dead and she's merely following her plan to leave Rokkenjima
2) she's aware people are dead but she's innocent and maybe doesn't even know what has happened or that Eva and Battler has survived. She leaves again following the plan as there's nothing she can do for who died and her position is definitely suspicious.
3) regardless of the fact that she knows or not that people is dead she was supposed to escape with Battler but they were parted/didn't meet for some reason. The explosion forces her to leave, hoping they'll meet up some other place (maybe she told him she has an home in that place... which is what pushed Battler to wander till there)
4) there's more but we'll never end if I list them all.

The problem is that with the little material we've on Yasu and Ikuko we'll never know for sure. This is one of the answers I was hoping to get from 'Our confession', in short something more on Prime!Yasu.
However at best we get a motivation for Piece!Yasu. It's better than nothing as previously the motivation for her to kill was even weaker but... *sighs*

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Same with Featherine and Hanyuu. :3
Well, I believe Featherine and Hanyuu are different people... though Ryukishi had fun in making them similar on purpose... but this might be because I believe that the meta is created by the mind of one character...
jjblue1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 15:56   Link #26998
Pocuma
Junior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Could it be something like Yasu left Ange out of the story because she didn't know how to handle a 6 year old child in a murderer scenario? Or that it would tie down Battler (the detective) to much if he had to keep constant watch over her?

Btw, wasn't the 2 first stories mentioned to have been written as diary entries (by “Maria”)? Isn’t it possible that the stories that was in the bottles wasn’t as detailed as the “game” we readers are shown? Just thought that it might have been somewhat easier to edit if it wasn’t as detailed as the game…. And while I’m at it: didn’t you guys have a debate some time ago regarding if the fantasy scenes where even written in the bottle-stories to begin with or if they where just added for the sake of the game by Beato.
Pocuma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 16:02   Link #26999
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Or, you know, Battler's a culprit.
"Oh, hubris! O cruel irony, muse of karma! To have gotten away with murder and then be struck by a negligent driver running a red light!"

That's Final Destination-level karmic retribution right there.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2012-01-12, 16:18   Link #27000
jjblue1
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pocuma View Post
Could it be something like Yasu left Ange out of the story because she didn't know how to handle a 6 year old child in a murderer scenario? Or that it would tie down Battler (the detective) to much if he had to keep constant watch over her?

Btw, wasn't the 2 first stories mentioned to have been written as diary entries (by “Maria”)? Isn’t it possible that the stories that was in the bottles wasn’t as detailed as the “game” we readers are shown? Just thought that it might have been somewhat easier to edit if it wasn’t as detailed as the game…. And while I’m at it: didn’t you guys have a debate some time ago regarding if the fantasy scenes where even written in the bottle-stories to begin with or if they where just added for the sake of the game by Beato.
Or maybe... Ange was expelled by Mariage Sorcerers so Beato wanted to make sure she couldn't enter in her golden land. So she wrote her off the stories and bribed Rudolf so that he wouldn't carry her on Rokkenjima.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
"Oh, hubris! O cruel irony, muse of karma! To have gotten away with murder and then be struck by a negligent driver running a red light!"

That's Final Destination-level karmic retribution right there.
Am I mean if I find this terribly funny?
jjblue1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 19:20.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.