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Old 2009-10-27, 06:42   Link #2701
Dr. Akagi
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I like ijriims theories...

I rarely post here, just wanted to support ijriims and his theory. (Kyrie’s fans, unite!)

For the record, here is where I stand on Umineko matters as of now:

Things I believe to be true:

1) Kyrie is the main culprit for episode 4;
2) Kyrie is responsible at least for some of the deaths in episode 3 (Nanjo’s in particular, Hideyoshi’s probably);
3) If there is an ultimate mastermind in Umineko universe, it has to be Kyrie;
4) Nanjo is an accomplice at least in episodes 1, 3 and 5, probably in other games as well.


Things I’m less certain about:

1) Kanon is alive in episode 1, at least up to the time of Natsuhi’s murder;
2) Kanon is the missing son of Natsuhi;
3) Kanon killed Natsuhi in episode 1 (but is not the ultimate mastermind in any of the episodes);
4) Kyrie’s corpse in episode 1 has to be fake somehow (maybe indeed is a dummy);
5) Kumasawa may be accomplice № 2 for some (all?) of the games.

If you want to learn more of my opinions on Umineko, feel free to check my other posts in this/other threads.
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Old 2009-10-27, 07:00   Link #2702
desirebluesky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
Kyrie’s corpse in episode 1 has to be fake somehow (maybe indeed is a dummy);
Regarding corpses with unknown identities, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist!
some people argue it doesn't apply to identified ones, but still.
...i'm not sure if her death was proclaimed in red though. at least i can't find it now.
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Old 2009-10-27, 07:21   Link #2703
Dr. Akagi
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Maybe something went wrong, and Kyrie got herself killed somehow, leaving Nanjo to clear up her mess (but I highly doubt that to be true).

In any case, Kyrie of episode 1 is out of the picture from the time of her “death” to the time of Natsuhi’s murder, because Kyrie’s “corpse” was locked in the shed and Natsuhi had the key.

After Natsuhi’s murder, 2 possibilities exist:

1) Nanjo (who had also faked his death) killed the survivors – this option has no need for Kyrie being alive at all;
2) Nanjo obtained the key to the shed from Natsuhi’s corpse and released Kyrie from the shed, after which they killed the survivors – meaning Kyrie faked her death somehow.
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Old 2009-10-27, 08:13   Link #2704
Leinne
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
Maybe something went wrong, and Kyrie got herself killed somehow, leaving Nanjo to clear up her mess (but I highly doubt that to be true).

In any case, Kyrie of episode 1 is out of the picture from the time of her “death” to the time of Natsuhi’s murder, because Kyrie’s “corpse” was locked in the shed and Natsuhi had the key.

After Natsuhi’s murder, 2 possibilities exist:

1) Nanjo (who had also faked his death) killed the survivors – this option has no need for Kyrie being alive at all;
2) Nanjo obtained the key to the shed from Natsuhi’s corpse and released Kyrie from the shed, after which they killed the survivors – meaning Kyrie faked her death somehow.
Nanjo's corpse identity is confirmed with the aforementioned read. Irt was used for this mureder and extended for the first one too.
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Old 2009-10-27, 08:24   Link #2705
ijriims
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Three questions still bug me:

1. The reason of the bloody hands on Natsuhi's room in EP1, and who did it?

2. The meaning or effect of broken mirror in the Shrine in EP2

3. Why killed all the servants at the 1st night in EP3?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
I rarely post here, just wanted to support ijriims and his theory. (Kyrie’s fans, unite!)
I find being the mastermind's fans is just too weird.
Anyway, I believe Kyrie, Krauss and possibly Rosa did plan a lot for the cases, but for the seat of ultimate mastermind, you have to leave space for Sumadera family and even the Tokyo government (sounding too familiar ).
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Old 2009-10-27, 08:38   Link #2706
Dr. Akagi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post




I find being the mastermind's fans is just too weird.
I was just kidding there.

As far as Umineko women go, consider me Natsuhi's fanboy - she's solemn, dumb and busty - just the way (aha-aha) I like it.
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Old 2009-10-27, 08:51   Link #2707
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Not a single person left the dining room until 1:00.

That red text refers to all the people in the dining room after Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji left. If there was no specific time reference binding the red text then that would mean that from the very first time he entered the dining room at any point during the day he would be forced to stay there until 1am the next day. It is impossible to interpret the red text this way because Erika, the detective, definitely entered the dining room during the day and left it prior to 1am.
Genji and Krauss have been shown entering the dining room after midnight. In this scene Genji notices that Kinzo's ring is now on Battler's finger, and of course this could have happened only after midnight.

Regardless of this fact Erika claims that Genji after telling Natsuhi of the phone call, he went to the servant's room straight away.

And at this point Phoenix Wright would scream OBJECTION! There's a contradiction!

What really happened? Did Genji entered the room after midnight and thus never left it untill 1:00 AM. Or is it that what we have been shown was false?
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Old 2009-10-27, 08:53   Link #2708
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Quote:
some people argue it doesn't apply to identified ones, but still.
...i'm not sure if her death was proclaimed in red though. at least i can't find it now.
I'm about 99% from the First Twilight of Episode One from that red truth that Kyrie, Rudolf, Rosa, and Gohda are dead, and since they were the first ones to die, I highly, highly doubt any of them are the masterminds. I'm about 95% sure Krauss is dead since we saw his face despite the fact that the red possibly wouldn't apply to him. And I'm 65% sure that Shannon is alive as 1. her face is identified, nullifying the red truth and 2. Her corpse is hidden, and not everyone (including most importantly Battler) saw it.
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Old 2009-10-27, 10:20   Link #2709
Ssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Genji and Krauss have been shown entering the dining room after midnight. In this scene Genji notices that Kinzo's ring is now on Battler's finger, and of course this could have happened only after midnight.

Regardless of this fact Erika claims that Genji after telling Natsuhi of the phone call, he went to the servant's room straight away.

And at this point Phoenix Wright would scream OBJECTION! There's a contradiction!

What really happened? Did Genji entered the room after midnight and thus never left it untill 1:00 AM. Or is it that what we have been shown was false?
Once again here is the full text Bernkastel used since you missed my post after that post:
"Yes, that's right. At the stroke of midnight, Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji were in the 2nd floor hallway in the mansion. Everyone else was in the dining room on the 1st floor. And just as you know, there was the mysterious knock and the letter with the one-winged crest appeared. Then the discussions over it dragged on and on until 1 o'clock in the morning. I'll say it with the red truth. Of the people who were in the dining room, not a single one of them left until 1am…!"

The red text "Of the people who were in the dining room, not a single one of them left until 1am…!" either:
A) Refers to everyone in the dining room at the stroke of midnight
B) Refers to everyone in the dining room after midnight and up until 1am
C) Does not allow anyone who entered at anyone the dining room at any point during the day to leave until 1am (impossible since Erika and others came and left)

If it is B, like you suggest, then there is a contradiction. However, it is most likely A since Bernkastel specifically says "At the stroke of midnight".
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Old 2009-10-27, 10:49   Link #2710
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Spoiler for Response with screenshot:
Spoiler for Counterattack with screenshot:
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Old 2009-10-27, 11:07   Link #2711
Renall
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Regarding the stakes as murder weapons...

I theorize that while the stakes may be capable of being used to kill, they are not a preferred murder weapon and are frequently avoided in favor of other methods or staking "found" bodies. Some of the stakings almost certainly weren't what killed their victims.

ep1: Eva and Hideyoshi could've been killed by their stakings. Kanon may not have died, and if he did his death wasn't "clean" (instantaneous and without identifying themselves, not non-messy) and the killers seem to prefer that. Kinzo was never murdered, so that staking is obviously non-fatal. Genji/Nanjo/Kumasawa had their faces destroyed, which is probably what killed them or related to it as the stakings were in decidedly non-fatal areas.

ep2: Jessica's wound seems like a possible staking issue. Kanon vanished, so we don't know. Shannon maybe could've been staked to death. George and Gohda would've died too slowly if they were. Everyone who saw the fake Kanon claims he killed Nanjo and Kumasawa by slitting their throats, so the staking seems to have been an afterthought (it could have killed them, but slitting the throat seems more effective).

ep3: No one who was killed really seems to have been likely to be killed by the stakes. Maria and Rosa weren't staked. Hideyoshi/Kyrie/Rudolf probably shot each other and were staked afterward; if one of them survived to kill George and Nanjo, they probably succumbed to the bullet(s), not the stake. Krauss and Natsuhi had very suspicious injuries that strongly suggest they were strangled, not staked to death. And the red says Nanjo was shot. It doesn't say what he was shot with, but I think a gun is more probable than some stake launcher.

ep4: Only Kyrie's staking seemed to have even been done properly, and she claimed she was being shot at, so it doesn't seem like she believed she was going to be staked. The consistency of the damage between everybody else suggests that some were or weren't staked mostly at the discretion of the staker, who may not have been the main killer of this episode.

ep5: Well... the FT victims seem to have died of other causes. Krauss is dead but we don't know how. Hideyoshi died in a struggle, which probably isn't the way the murderer wanted it to go.
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Old 2009-10-27, 11:26   Link #2712
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
Once again here is the full text Bernkastel used since you missed my post after that post:
"Yes, that's right. At the stroke of midnight, Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji were in the 2nd floor hallway in the mansion. Everyone else was in the dining room on the 1st floor. And just as you know, there was the mysterious knock and the letter with the one-winged crest appeared. Then the discussions over it dragged on and on until 1 o'clock in the morning. I'll say it with the red truth. Of the people who were in the dining room, not a single one of them left until 1am…!"

The red text "Of the people who were in the dining room, not a single one of them left until 1am…!" either:
A) Refers to everyone in the dining room at the stroke of midnight
B) Refers to everyone in the dining room after midnight and up until 1am
C) Does not allow anyone who entered at anyone the dining room at any point during the day to leave until 1am (impossible since Erika and others came and left)

If it is B, like you suggest, then there is a contradiction. However, it is most likely A since Bernkastel specifically says "At the stroke of midnight".
In that case I have another red truth that is definitely in contradiction with what we have been shown:

After transferring the phone call, Genji went straight back to the waiting room.
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Old 2009-10-27, 13:52   Link #2713
Ssol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
after notifying Natsuhi of the phone call at midnight, Genji went straight back to the waiting room
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
After transferring the phone call, Genji went straight back to the waiting room.
I agree, that it can't be denied that Genji returned to his room after transferring the phone call.

However... there is no red text that confirms that after he returned to his room he stayed in his room up until 1am! After transferring the call he went directly to his room just as the red text confirms. After that he leaves the room with Krauss for some unknown reason and they go to the dining room. Genji then returns to his room sometime prior to 1am and Eva places the seal. Therefore, there no longer is any absolute proof that this scene was FALSE!
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Old 2009-10-27, 14:09   Link #2714
Jan-Poo
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However... there is no red text that confirms that after he returned to his room he stayed in his room up until 1am! After transferring the call he went directly to his room just as the red text confirms. After that he leaves the room with Krauss for some unknown reason and they go to the dining room. Genji then returns to his room sometime prior to 1am and Eva places the seal. Therefore, there no longer is any absolute proof that this scene was FALSE!
Perfect. Then let's assume this is actually as you say, why Genji went there? For what purpose? Also we have seen Krauss and Genji arriving at the family meeting at the same time! If Genji didn't go there straight away, then what Krauss was doing in the meantime? In that case it would be logical to assume that Krauss and Genji were together. Did Krauss also go to the servant room? And why?

In the other case, if it was a fake scene then the answer is: What was the purpose? Why Lambda had to recreate such a scene? What was she trying to cover?
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Old 2009-10-27, 14:26   Link #2715
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
I agree, that it can't be denied that Genji returned to his room after transferring the phone call.

However... there is no red text that confirms that after he returned to his room he stayed in his room up until 1am! After transferring the call he went directly to his room just as the red text confirms. After that he leaves the room with Krauss for some unknown reason and they go to the dining room. Genji then returns to his room sometime prior to 1am and Eva places the seal. Therefore, there no longer is any absolute proof that this scene was FALSE!
In that case, I believe it's time to dispense with scalpels and use a hammer.

The people in the dining room correctly discerned the sound of a direct knock on the door. A knock is when someone strikes a door with their hand. Because of this, the presence of a person in the mansion knocking on the door is required. However, none of the people in the mansion at midnight produced the knock by any means whatsoever, and all other people on the island were in the guesthouse. Therefore, the presence of a person in the mansion knocking on the door at midnight is comprehensively denied. If the knock occurred at midnight, this is a contradiction! We are forced to conclude that the knock did not occur at midnight! Even if you claim the knock occurred at 11:59 rather than exactly midnight, it is impossible to move from the mansion to the guesthouse in the space of one minute! Furthermore, the person who knocked is not a meta entity and has no reason to try!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
In the other case, if it was a fake scene then the answer is: What was the purpose? Why Lambda had to recreate such a scene? What was she trying to cover?
The obvious reason would be to cover up who actually left the letter, like I was saying earlier, but there could be others. For instance, if Krauss didn't go to the dining room after midnight, there's nothing keeping him from going to the guesthouse during the hour that Erika didn't have the lounge under observation. He could have helped the cousins set up their supposed murder, or even stayed hidden in the guesthouse with them.

Last edited by LyricalAura; 2009-10-27 at 14:56. Reason: Responding to Jan-Poo
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Old 2009-10-27, 14:36   Link #2716
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Originally Posted by Marion View Post
Natsuhi and Krauss had their knee and ankle impaled. I doubt they could walk from the arbor to the mansion and then kill Nanjo. Only viable suspects are Hideyoshi, Rudolf and Kyrie and considering that Mammon's stake was found by the police it was probably Kyrie.
George is also a suspect. Remember, his death wasn't confirmed in Red until Evatrice stated it.
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Old 2009-10-27, 14:50   Link #2717
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post

The people in the dining room correctly discerned the sound of a direct knock on the door
*cough* At first I also thought this was correct. Then Renall asked me to check if the japanese text really implied that. I checked... and I realized that I couldn't really tell for sure.

つまり、実際にあの扉を叩いたノック音を、全員は正確に識別し、絶対に聞き間違えないというこ とよ。

The literal wording is:

In other words, everyone with accurate discernment, absolutely didn't misheard the sound of that door being actually knocked.

Sucky translation sucks, but I can't find a better way to put it without making it clear the possible trick behind this sentence. Lambda doesn't say that they heard anything. She uses the verb "聞き間違える" which means "mishearing".

It pisses me off, but I haven't seen any red truth that definitely confirms that a knock happened at all.
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Old 2009-10-27, 15:18   Link #2718
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Perfect. Then let's assume this is actually as you say, why Genji went there? For what purpose? Also we have seen Krauss and Genji arriving at the family meeting at the same time! If Genji didn't go there straight away, then what Krauss was doing in the meantime? In that case it would be logical to assume that Krauss and Genji were together. Did Krauss also go to the servant room? And why?

In the other case, if it was a fake scene then the answer is: What was the purpose? Why Lambda had to recreate such a scene? What was she trying to cover?
Hmm.. this is strange behavior.

1) Krauss said he was going to retire for the night.
2) Genji had no reason to return to the dining room.

Krauss heard the knock as well! After hearing the knock he went to Genji's room to ask him about it. Genji had no idea so they both went down to investigate.
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Old 2009-10-27, 15:19   Link #2719
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
We only know that the cliff-falling Beatrice died in 1967, according to red text. And the captain started importing goods from 1948. Which episode does the sentence "Kinzo's secret lover Beatrice died before 1952" come from? (From Genji in episode1?)
Yes. That's all we have to go on.

Beato's dream flashback in Episode 3 suggests that she was raised in Kuwadorian and that Virgilia had some involvement in her upbringing... I'm pretty sure she's her mother.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
Why does everyone believe that Human!Beatrice doesn't exist? Battler said that he recognized her face, and because nothing was actually mentioned obstructing his vision, saying "Oh it was heavy raining out" cannot be used.
Because there are no more than 17 people on Rokkenjima.

The Beatrice who looked like that died in 1967. It's incredibly far-fetched to suggest there's someone else who just happened to look like her. Ergo, someone must be disguising has her rather than the other way around.

Beatrice was also a fair distance away from Battler in that scene. So what if he "recognized her face"? He wasn't anywhere close to her...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Shannon must be very wealthy to give away this amount of money, what is perhaps more astonishing is how much wage the Ushiromiya family has been paying these servants.
The idea is that Shannon found the gold long ago, which is why she's now Beatrice.

Notice how every other person who has discovered the gold has since become a witch...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiba View Post
I'm about 99% from the First Twilight of Episode One from that red truth that Kyrie, Rudolf, Rosa, and Gohda are dead, and since they were the first ones to die, I highly, highly doubt any of them are the masterminds. I'm about 95% sure Krauss is dead since we saw his face despite the fact that the red possibly wouldn't apply to him. And I'm 65% sure that Shannon is alive as 1. her face is identified, nullifying the red truth and 2. Her corpse is hidden, and not everyone (including most importantly Battler) saw it.
^This. Shannon and Kanon were never confirmed dead in that episode by the red truth or the detective's, uh, detecting, and as a result are most probably the culprits.

Everyone suspects Kanon and only Kanon, but someone had to play Maria's Beatrice and I doubt that Kanon can sound feminine enough to fit the bill, despite what everyone thinks.
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Old 2009-10-27, 15:34   Link #2720
LyricalAura
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
*cough* At first I also thought this was correct. Then Renall asked me to check if the japanese text really implied that. I checked... and I realized that I couldn't really tell for sure.

つまり、実際にあの扉を叩いたノック音を、全員は正確に識別し、絶対に聞き間違えないというこ とよ。

The literal wording is:

In other words, everyone with accurate discernment, absolutely didn't misheard the sound of that door being actually knocked.

Sucky translation sucks, but I can't find a better way to put it without making it clear the possible trick behind this sentence. Lambda doesn't say that they heard anything. She uses the verb "聞き間違える" which means "mishearing".

It pisses me off, but I haven't seen any red truth that definitely confirms that a knock happened at all.
I'm not sure I agree with that interpetation. It looks like it should be treated as two separate sentences to me.
つまり、実際にあの扉を叩いたノック音を、全員は正確に識別した。
絶対に聞き間違えないということよ。


In other words, as for the knocking sound of someone actually striking the door, all of them correctly distinguished it.
None of them could have misheard it.


That is, it's not that they "were capable of distinguishing it", but there was a specific instance where they "did distinguish it". But I guess that does still leave some wiggle room, in that everyone in the dining room could have heard something knock-like and realized it wasn't a knock. Seems pretty shaky to me though.

Well, let's assume for the moment that the knock didn't happen. In that case we should probably be doubtful about the letter too, since there really isn't anything supporting its existence other than the knock, and nobody in the mansion at midnight touched it. In that case, where did Battler get the ring from?

Now that I think about it though... The ring was in one of Kinzo's envelopes. Was there a wax seal on the envelope? And if there was, how did it get there when the ring was inside the envelope?
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