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Old 2012-02-04, 18:28   Link #27661
Toku
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Oh, right. Supposedly, the only difference between all of the games, are things that happened between 0:00 Oct. 4 and 24:00 Oct. 5, 1986. So the things happening before that time frame, aren't supposed to change between games (if, in fact, the game takes place on Beato's game board)... I don't really remember where this was said though, and I'm not sure I buy it anymore.
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Old 2012-02-04, 18:34   Link #27662
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Remon View Post
There's nothing hinting towards him knowing about it. It's supposed to be a secret, shared only by Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo and Yasu (and I don't mean the accident, but the fact that the baby survived). How would Battler know about it?
Knowing about it is unnecessary. The Man From 19 Years Ago never actually said anything on the phone that would conclusively link him to that incident, Natsuhi just filled in the details on her own. Battler could have been trying to freak her out with a generic act that just coincidentally lined up with her past.
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Old 2012-02-04, 18:43   Link #27663
Cao Ni Ma
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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
The sheer amount of sarcasm you managed to pack into three sentences there, is pretty amazing.

I wouldn't do it. That said, I think there is more to it than that. And, I would like to understand Yasuda and her motive.

In the end, the reason I want to understand, is just curiosity. Since I'm a big fan of Umineko, and Beato in particular. Even so, I don't really like it when people don't even try to understand things from someone else's perspective just because, at a glance, it goes against their morals. Put simply, if you don't want to understand something, then you can be sure that you never will.


I dont really think its that either, but superficially its what it looks like. Really, RK07 said it was solvable by EP4. That wouldn't make sense unless he actually meant that it was partially solvable, that is, who and how are there but its missing the why. In a later interview he said that it took a long while for the why to come out. How long was it? Was it all the way till EP7? I dont remember any mention of Battler sharing views on mystery novels with Shannon at any point of the story prior to EP7. Thats pretty key to what I think happened.

This is what I think of the actual "love" in the story. Ever had a good friend you used to have that shared the same interest on something with you? To the point that it was basically the thing that bound you together? Imagine meeting up with that person at a later date. What would be the thing that you'd try to use to spark a conversation again? It would probably be that thing, whatever it was. A sport, movies, novels, etc.

Now imagine Yasu or whatever, hears that Battler is coming back to the island. Put yourself in Yasu's shoes. You've been writing amateur mystery stories in your spare time, you have the means to recreate those stories if you wanted to...you plan a surprise for your old friend. I'd personally wouldn't do it with any ulterior motive, In my personal view, I moved on. I dont know about Battler or whether he's move on either, chances point to yes though. Now the day comes up, Battler arrives. In between the greetings and the reminiscing socialization, I ask Battler whether he had read any good mysteries recently. If he answers yes and mentions a few, I tell him that I've taken up amateur writing and offer a rough draft of my latest story. If he accepts, I'll give it to him after the dinner. Post dinner, I'll get all my accomplices and brief them that Battler's taken the bait and that the game will start as prepared. Battler will go to his room and start reading the story.

Now put yourself in Battler's shoes. A girl you haven't seen in years, that was a good friend of yours, hands you a story. She warned you that it was pretty gruesome, but that its just that...a story. The story is named "Land Of the Golden Witch" In it there is the tale of the witch Beatrice and how she commits ritual murder as part of her resurrection ceremony. Everyone else in the island was mentioning the witch, even Maria. There is huge painting of her in a hall, your grandfather is absolutely obsessed with her as well. You think to yourself "Well, it looks like Shannon took in this general mood as inspiration for the novel. Its creepy, but understandable". You wake up in the morning to a ruckus. You ask Gohda whats happening, he mentions that they cant find some of the family members. You find this scene eerily similar to what you read yesterday. The "corpses" are found thus confirming your suspicion. How would you react from there on?
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Old 2012-02-04, 18:49   Link #27664
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Knowing about it is unnecessary. The Man From 19 Years Ago never actually said anything on the phone that would conclusively link him to that incident, Natsuhi just filled in the details on her own. Battler could have been trying to freak her out with a generic act that just coincidentally lined up with her past.
Nope. He clearly told her that she is his mother, and that he will take revenge for what happened 19 years ago. It's too much of a coincidence don't you think? And besides there's still absolutely no reason why Battler would do this.
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Old 2012-02-04, 18:57   Link #27665
Cao Ni Ma
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Nope. He clearly told her that she is his mother, and that he will take revenge for what happened 19 years ago. It's too much of a coincidence don't you think? And besides there's still absolutely no reason why Battler would do this.
Battler basically writes himself into the position of the man in that very episode. There really isn't anything that could deny it, its the reason why it was effective. You cant look at him as being the Battler you know. His interpretation makes him TMF19YA and thanks to the nature of the box, it happens. Whatever means he could have used to get the information are irrelevant, as long as it was even remotely possible.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:06   Link #27666
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
I dont really think its that either, but superficially its what it looks like. Really, RK07 said it was solvable by EP4. That wouldn't make sense unless he actually meant that it was partially solvable, that is, who and how are there but its missing the why. In a later interview he said that it took a long while for the why to come out. How long was it? Was it all the way till EP7? I dont remember any mention of Battler sharing views on mystery novels with Shannon at any point of the story prior to EP7. Thats pretty key to what I think happened.
I'm pretty sure that we saw some clues that Battler was a Mystery fan, at least.

Oh, as for that quote, it's this:
Spoiler for interview:


All it really says is that, before you reach EP8, the motive should already be there. That much is obvious for us. But, if I remember right, Will said that he found the motive in EP4.

Quote:
This is what I think of the actual "love" in the story. Ever had a good friend you used to have that shared the same interest on something with you? To the point that it was basically the thing that bound you together? Imagine meeting up with that person at a later date. What would be the thing that you'd try to use to spark a conversation again? It would probably be that thing, whatever it was. A sport, movies, novels, etc.

Now imagine Yasu or whatever, hears that Battler is coming back to the island. Put yourself in Yasu's shoes. You've been writing amateur mystery stories in your spare time, you have the means to recreate those stories if you wanted to...you plan a surprise for your old friend. I'd personally wouldn't do it with any ulterior motive, In my personal view, I moved on. I dont know about Battler or whether he's move on either, chances point to yes though. Now the day comes up, Battler arrives. In between the greetings and the reminiscing socialization, I ask Battler whether he had read any good mysteries recently. If he answers yes and mentions a few, I tell him that I've taken up amateur writing and offer a rough draft of my latest story. If he accepts, I'll give it to him after the dinner. Post dinner, I'll get all my accomplices and brief them that Battler's taken the bait and that the game will start as prepared. Battler will go to his room and start reading the story.

Now put yourself in Battler's shoes. A girl you haven't seen in years, that was a good friend of yours, hands you a story. She warned you that it was pretty gruesome, but that its just that...a story. The story is named "Land Of the Golden Witch" In it there is the tale of the witch Beatrice and how she commits ritual murder as part of her resurrection ceremony. Everyone else in the island was mentioning the witch, even Maria. There is huge painting of her in a hall, your grandfather is absolutely obsessed with her as well. You think to yourself "Well, it looks like Shannon took in this general mood as inspiration for the novel. Its creepy, but understandable". You wake up in the morning to a ruckus. You ask Gohda whats happening, he mentions that they cant find some of the family members. You find this scene eerily similar to what you read yesterday. The "corpses" are found thus confirming your suspicion. How would you react from there on?
That would be the same as her saying outright "I am the culprit." Because, after all, she wrote the story. And how many others have read it anyway? Even if they did, why would they want to recreate it? To frame her? How would they know that Battler read this exact story the night before? And even if they know that Battler read this story the night before, would his accusation be enough to frame her? Or does it just so happen that, actually, most everyone has read this story and might therefore point fingers at her?

Also, while you explained why she would show him the story, you didn't explain why she would try to recreate it. Serial murder as a greeting to an old friend, is not something that I would be able to believe, because we have no reason to believe that Yasuda has that kind of personality.

Even if she does have that kind of personality, what's the point of having him read the story before you act it out? Wouldn't that just make it much easier for him to find the solutions to the mystery, even if it didn't end up framing her somehow?

So, well. Sorry, but I don't really like this theory.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:28   Link #27667
Cao Ni Ma
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That would be the same as her saying outright "I am the culprit."
Exactly. Now how would you react to the events? Would you think this is a game or that Shannon really is going about murdering everyone in the family? You dont really know if that old friend of yours snapped. Or maybe she was one of the victims in the first twilight? What then?

Quote:
Also, while you explained why she would show him the story, you didn't explain why she would try to recreate it. Serial murder as a greeting to an old friend, is not something that I would be able to believe, because we have no reason to believe that Yasuda has that kind of personality.
Beatrice certainly had that personality though. Our Confessions pretty much confirmed the murder game theory. Whether or not this is what actually happened in Rokkenjima is up in the air. But its either accident, hijacked fake murder game, or actual murder game played for real.

Quote:
Even if she does have that kind of personality, what's the point of having him read the story before you act it out? Wouldn't that just make it much easier for him to find the solutions to the mystery, even if it didn't end up framing her somehow?
Doesn't need to be exactly the same, but you know, the general jist of it. Battler could very well go out and say "THIS IS A TRICK!" and ruin the fun (or take it too seriously). Or he could have said "This is Magic!" and went along with it.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:28   Link #27668
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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
In an interview, Ryukishi says that while he didn't want to give the answers away so easily, he guarantees that those who don't stop thinking will eventually arrive at one, single answer. So, really, these holes are not bottomless at all.
I also like to think there's a solution from all the holes. The problem is that as long as I'm not given the solution the possibility Ryukishi planned a solution or not is in the catbox. Though, since I've fun searching for that solution I prefer to adopt an optimistic outlook and think there's one.

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I somewhat agree. I admit that I don't like the whole idea of "Lion is Yasuda's only hope" because that actually doesn't make that much sense to me.
Same here. I like to think she had chances to be happy even without becoming Lion. Though I tend to think there's actually a trick in that sentence and that it refers only to the words in which the Rokkenjima incident happens and Rokkenjima becomes a catbox.

If I'm not wrong Bern found Lion only in 1 world of the many she checked.
However considering the various variants it's pretty absurd that in all the worlds minus 1 Lion/Yasuda ends up always ends up tossed down of a cliff and hidden by Genji in an orphanage. There should be tons of other options... like Natsuhi being the one that slips and fall from the cliff for example or the maid deciding not to follow Natsuhi and so on.
However if the premise is that in that world there has to be the Rokkenjima incident it's possible that in an amazingly high number of cases in which Lion isn't born the Rokkenjima incident will happen, while, if Lion is born, only in one case the Rokkenjima incident will take place.
Bern however discharged all those worlds in which the Rokkenjima incident didn't take place because of no interest to her (and because this spares her from checking an infinite number of worlds) and hid the premise of her search merely because she's being well... quite a monster in Ep 7.

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Even so, unless Natsuhi is somehow the mastermind behind the entire Battler-not-returning thing, I can't personally see how it could be that Natsuhi completely ruined her life and trapped her in a dead-end fate. Which is never even implied as far as I can tell.
I think EP 5 had her put the blame on Natsuhi merely because it was Lambda's game and this was a possibility allowed by the game... sort of like Lion could be placed on the gameboard but I doubt Beato would have staged a game with Lion.

However, if she believes the injury Natsuhi caused her would stop her dream of being loved to become a reality she might hate Natsuhi.
I've the feeling Natsuhi didn't really toss her down but felt so guilty for it she felt as it did and that Yasuda also ended up believing she did.
Yasuda feels she's forniture because she has a body that can't be loved. This can cause her to think that her love story with George wouldn't work and, even if Battler were to return, her love story would still fail so she would be trapped in a life in which she can't be loved and I believe her biggest wish was to be loved.

While I think in Beato's gameboards she can place the blame on Battler's lack of return for her misfortune because If Battler had returned she might believe she would have left, never learnt all those unpleasant things and maybe manage to gain Battler's love regardless of her physical problems.

And no, I'm not saying it would be a rational thought on her part (it was possible that before she were to manage to leave Genji would have pulled her aside and told her the truth) but she might have thought so in grief and desperation.

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What I don't like here is the assumption of "plan X." We have no reason to believe that the ring is fake in the first place. There's just way too many unsupported assumptions here for my liking.
Yes, that's the problem I've with this theory... even thought the siblings must have come on Rokkenjima with a plan since they wanted Krauss & Natsuhi to confess they hid Kinzo's death.
'Plan X' might have been saying that Kinzo handed one of them the ring while they were there. To disprove this Krauss and Natsuhi would have to show the original ring. If Kinzo never parted from it they could claim Krauss had gotten it merely because Kinzo is dead.

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So basically, the siblings went and threatened/bribed the servants, or something. This is not too terribly implausible. And if it is something like this, it could explain why Yasuda decided to go along with the plan and hand the ring to Battler as a bonus (and maybe because she does want Battler to be the Head).
The problem is why Yasuda let herself be bribed? She doesn't need the money as she has the gold. So either she's accepting the bribe because she has her own agenda or because she wants to pin Natsuhi. And in the end people really died (and possibly the island exploded) so who killed them (and caused the island to explode) if not her?

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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
He couldn't say he was Asumu's son because he was actually Kyrie's son.
Yes, I know, but how he knows? In Ep 8 it's said that red truth is truth we agreed upon. As he had previously agreed on Beato speaking in red only when she's saying the truth he might be forced to swallow as true even the truths he doesn't like but here? He doesn't know that's what Beato is aiming and Beato doesn't do anything to persuade him he's not Asumu's son (Ange showed Beato a lion plushie that Maria recognized as Sakutarou's new vessel, making possible for Sakutarou having a second body and therefore not being one of a kind).
If Prime Battler were to know that he's not Asumu's son it's possible even Meta Battler has this knowledge, although he's not aware of it.
This assuming meta-Battler is tied to prime-Battler.
Of course if you view them as two separate entities what prime-Battler knows won't affect meta-Battler at all.

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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
But, again, this is just too many assumptions, so I can't really buy this.
Yes, the problem I have with all those theories is that they require to assume too many things so, although they might work, unless new material will give extra matching info, to me they look like they have a low chance to be true.

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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
It's all confusing. I still don't quite understand Yasuda's motive right now. I have a number of guesses, but I don't really know if any of them are right... Or even close.
I've many guesses as well but the problem is to check if they're true. And so far we can't do it. We're a gentle version of the trial in EP 5. We check the facts we've at hands and try to construct a red truth that will match. We'll try to make it better than Erika, not with the purpose to harrass someone, but to be sure we've found the real truth and not just a truth that looks plausible we need to be able to check our answers with Ryukishi's... -_-

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Originally Posted by Toku View Post
About the only thing I can conclude with 100% certainty is that a huge factor is love, and that the conflict in her heart over whether she should stay with George or go to Battler played a big part.
I've the feeling Yasuda didnt plan to stay with George, regardless of Battler returning or not due to her 'body that can't love'.
Possibly she planned to disappear after receiving his ring. Episode 7 hints at how a crime would have happened regardless of Battler returning, though it would have been 'different'. If she were to commit suicide or fake her death after George asked her to marry him, we've a different crime.

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In an interview, Ryukishi said that if you've never honestly fallen in love, you wouldn't be able to understand the motive. That's probably why I don't understand.
I think the variants required to understand Yasuda are more than just having been honestly in love, though that's probably part of the puzzle.
Her situation is rather complicate and I think just loving/having loved someone isn't enough to put ourselves in her shoes... though it might help us to understand her desperation at the idea her love can go wasted due to her injury.

Umineko makes clear how Kinzo, Kirye and Rosa went through hell because they lost their loved ones. Kinzo became mad, Kirye had almost reached the point of being willing to kill her rival and Rosa's not realy handling things well, though she vent most of her frustration on Maria.

Probably they were supposed to be hints to how Yasuda can't stand to losing her loved one/ones.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:33   Link #27669
Remon
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Originally Posted by Cao Ni Ma View Post
Battler basically writes himself into the position of the man in that very episode. There really isn't anything that could deny it, its the reason why it was effective. You cant look at him as being the Battler you know. His interpretation makes him TMF19YA and thanks to the nature of the box, it happens. Whatever means he could have used to get the information are irrelevant, as long as it was even remotely possible.
That's saying that Erika's red truth is valid as well.

It was possible to say that Battler could have received that information at EP5. However with the information presented in the later Episodes we know for sure that Yasu's survival was strictly kept a secret. Battler coming to know that before the conference is impossible.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:40   Link #27670
Cao Ni Ma
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That's saying that Erika's red truth is valid as well.

It was possible to say that Battler could have received that information at EP5. However with the information presented in the later Episodes we know for sure that Yasu's survival was strictly kept a secret. Battler coming to know that before the conference is impossible.
New truths override old ones. Had that information been presented in EP5, then yes, Battler as TMF19YA could have been challenged. As it stood in EP5 though, the possibility of Battler existing as TMF19YA couldn't be denied.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:41   Link #27671
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There's nothing hinting towards him knowing about it. It's supposed to be a secret, shared only by Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo and Yasu (and I don't mean the accident, but the fact that the baby survived). How would Battler know about it?
EP5 is a universe where Yasu told Battler everything, and he takes matters into his own hands.
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:48   Link #27672
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EP5 is a universe where Yasu told Battler everything, and he takes matters into his own hands.
Knox's 8th
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Old 2012-02-04, 19:56   Link #27673
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The Man From 19 Years Ago is voiced by the same person who voices Battler. By this alone. It is also mildly implied by Battler's 'hallucination' that he already knew the way to the Golden Land. Therefore, my conclusion does not violate Knox's 8th.
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Old 2012-02-04, 20:05   Link #27674
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The Man From 19 Years Ago is voiced by the same person who voices Battler. By this alone. It is also mildly implied by Battler's 'hallucination' that he already knew the way to the Golden Land. Therefore, my conclusion does not violate Knox's 8th.
The same voice actor? Kinzo was also voiced by Daisuke Ono. Therefore Kinzo is actually Battler!
What hallucination are you speaking of? And the Golden Land has nothing to do with Yasu falling down a cliff.
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Old 2012-02-04, 20:08   Link #27675
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The same voice actor? Kinzo was also voiced by Daisuke Ono. Therefore Kinzo is actually Battler!
What hallucination are you speaking of? And the Golden Land has nothing to do with Yasu falling down a cliff.
Kinzo really is Battler if you look at it, thats the whole point of him having the same voice. Its ~symbolism~

Finding the mechanism that opened the way to the golden land. If Kinzo wasn't there to guide him, how did he find it? Luck?
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Old 2012-02-04, 20:43   Link #27676
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Kinzo really is Battler if you look at it, thats the whole point of him having the same voice. Its ~symbolism~

Finding the mechanism that opened the way to the golden land. If Kinzo wasn't there to guide him, how did he find it? Luck?
Well, Yasuda found it and all the help she had was Genji telling her which was Kinzo's homeland. The siblings in EP7 TeaParty also managed to find it without help. It'll make easier if Battler was told where to search but it's not impossible to find it.
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Old 2012-02-04, 20:54   Link #27677
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Well, Yasuda found it and all the help she had was Genji telling her which was Kinzo's homeland. The siblings in EP7 TeaParty also managed to find it without help. It'll make easier if Battler was told where to search but it's not impossible to find it.
Finding and triggering the mechanism in the middle of the night, while in a storm? All the while Battler is lying to us about seeing Kinzo pointing in the direction? I dont know, there is something odd about this Battler.

e- Battler even grows to suspect himself in this episode. Only to be assured that he didnt really kill anyone. Of course, if he takes on the role of TMF19YA, then he can do whatever he wants.
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Old 2012-02-04, 20:58   Link #27678
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The same voice actor? Kinzo was also voiced by Daisuke Ono. Therefore Kinzo is actually Battler!
Symbolism. Also, we've already been told a billion times that Battler is basically the spitting image of a young Kinzo in both looks and personality.

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What hallucination are you speaking of? And the Golden Land has nothing to do with Yasu falling down a cliff.
Look, man, if Yasu is going to confess everything to Battler she's going to show him the Golden Land as part of the story. Also, Battler imagined seeing an image of Kinzo telling him where to go.

Quote:
Well, Yasuda found it and all the help she had was Genji telling her which was Kinzo's homeland. The siblings in EP7 TeaParty also managed to find it without help. It'll make easier if Battler was told where to search but it's not impossible to find it.
The difference is that Yasu and the Siblings are both shown solving the mechanism in the Chapel and seeing the first statue from the steeple's viewpoint. Battler and Erika were wandering around in the rain. They might not have even activated the Chapel Mechanism.
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Old 2012-02-04, 21:12   Link #27679
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Finding and triggering the mechanism in the middle of the night, while in a storm? All the while Battler is lying to us about seeing Kinzo pointing in the direction? I dont know, there is something odd about this Battler.
The storm was there for the siblings in the EP 7 Teaparty also. Plus apparently someone in Rokkenjima Prime solved the epitaph and there was a storm on Prime too. And all Battler had to notice was that the lion was turned into a different direction. Erika noticed it as soon as he pointed it/looked where he was looking so I guess it could be seen easily enough.

Plus Battler's lie to the audience was explained by Battler himself. In Ep 5 he's an observer and has the right to interpret things as he wants and let his interpretation be heard. If he saw something that reminded him of Kinzo, although he realized it wasn't Kinzo, he can still pretend he saw Kinzo.

Though everything is odd about this Battler, from the way he suddently get interested in the epitaph so much he actually solves it, how he figures what's Kinzo's homeland (there's no scene in which the adults tell him and he previously didn't know), how he agrees to take part to such a cruel plot against Natsuhi.
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Old 2012-02-04, 21:20   Link #27680
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Exactly. Now how would you react to the events? Would you think this is a game or that Shannon really is going about murdering everyone in the family? You dont really know if that old friend of yours snapped. Or maybe she was one of the victims in the first twilight? What then?
...So, what you're saying is, this is a test to see whether he can believe that she's the culprit? In other words, whether he has love for her or not?

That's kind of... I mean, it certainly is a unique idea, but... It would only really work if she didn't feel any guilt over their deaths at all, and we have every reason to believe that she does.

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Beatrice certainly had that personality though. Our Confessions pretty much confirmed the murder game theory. Whether or not this is what actually happened in Rokkenjima is up in the air. But its either accident, hijacked fake murder game, or actual murder game played for real.
I guess. It gave the How Dunnit, but that wasn't really what I wanted to know anyway. It's interesting, but what I want to know most is the Why Dunnit.

Also, I don't think that Beatrice had that personality. I think that you'd have to ignore EP4 entirely, in order to interpret her personality that way. And especially EP7 and 8, where it becomes more than clear that she does feel guilty.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
I also like to think there's a solution from all the holes. The problem is that as long as I'm not given the solution the possibility Ryukishi planned a solution or not is in the catbox. Though, since I've fun searching for that solution I prefer to adopt an optimistic outlook and think there's one.
Well... In my mind, if I doubt Ryukishi's words, that's the same as outright saying "reasoning is impossible." It's just like Battler's flashback when he was still pierced with Dlanor's Red Key in EP5. The reader wants to know that there is a solution and that they can find it, before employing reasoning.

Debating is fun, but to be honest, the reason I came here is only because I knew I would have too much trouble if I kept trying to reason Umineko out alone. While I was always sure that there is a solution, I think that at the rate I was going, it would have taken me more effort to reach it than I'm willing to give. I really like Umineko and all, but I'm lazy.

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Same here. I like to think she had chances to be happy even without becoming Lion. Though I tend to think there's actually a trick in that sentence and that it refers only to the words in which the Rokkenjima incident happens and Rokkenjima becomes a catbox.

If I'm not wrong Bern found Lion only in 1 world of the many she checked.
However considering the various variants it's pretty absurd that in all the worlds minus 1 Lion/Yasuda ends up always ends up tossed down of a cliff and hidden by Genji in an orphanage. There should be tons of other options... like Natsuhi being the one that slips and fall from the cliff for example or the maid deciding not to follow Natsuhi and so on.
However if the premise is that in that world there has to be the Rokkenjima incident it's possible that in an amazingly high number of cases in which Lion isn't born the Rokkenjima incident will happen, while, if Lion is born, only in one case the Rokkenjima incident will take place.
Bern however discharged all those worlds in which the Rokkenjima incident didn't take place because of no interest to her (and because this spares her from checking an infinite number of worlds) and hid the premise of her search merely because she's being well... quite a monster in Ep 7.
Hm... So basically, there is hope, but Bern hid it. Plausible.

Personally, I think that, since Beatrice's game board only spans 2 days, then... The fact that Lion can be found in Bern's "bigger cat box" means that she actually increased it from 2 days to a full 19 years. In just 2 days, the possibilities were already mind-boggling, but in 19 years, there should be so many possibilities that it couldn't make sense for the incident to occur in more than, say, 1/3 of the alternate worlds.

For example, there's the possibility that the accident Asumu died in didn't happen in 1980, and when Kyrie tried to kill her, she was caught and put in jail. In this case, theoretically, Battler would have never left the family in the first place, and her first love would have a much higher chance of succeeding.

However... Yasuda may be many things, but she's not an idiot. She should be able to see that possibilities like this could have happened, since she is quite intelligent. Even if Bern hides these possibilities. She's an expert at seeing possibilities that most others would never believe in, and which she has no objective evidence of. In fact, her status as the Endless Witch seems to mean that this is her specialty. So why in the world... Would she think that she has to be Lion to be able to find happiness?

About all I can come up with is that Bern went and found a different Yasuda, one that is so depressed that she doesn't dare to believe that there is any hope left for her, because if she believes there is and finds out that there isn't, it will be too painful.

I mean... As far as I can see, there doesn't seem to be any implication that Yasuda is that sort of person. Or at least, the Yasuda who wrote Umineko. That Yasuda kept hoping that it might be possible to find happiness with Battler for a full six years, which must have been extremely painful. And if Ikuko=Yasuda is true, then it must be the case that she kept believing even after the incident.

Unless... I didn't want to think of this, but maybe the reason she believes that she can't find happiness is that injury, which gave her "a body that is incapable of love." It's true that the future George wanted included a bunch of grandchildren, which must have caused her a great deal of pain, but... Would that be enough to make her give up any hope of finding happiness? Otherwise, the injury would never be enough to justify it... Unless she's a huge pervert, but even if that was the Truth of Umineko and I could find no other explanation for her motive, I would still reject it without a second thought.

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I think EP 5 had her put the blame on Natsuhi merely because it was Lambda's game and this was a possibility allowed by the game... sort of like Lion could be placed on the gameboard but I doubt Beato would have staged a game with Lion.
Lion was only possible because Bern made the cat box much bigger, allowing many more possibilities. It's for that same reason that it was possible to have a living Kinzo. That said, I guess it's possible for there to be a game where Yasuda attempts to frame Natsuhi even on Beato's game board.

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However, if she believes the injury Natsuhi caused her would stop her dream of being loved to become a reality she might hate Natsuhi.
I've the feeling Natsuhi didn't really toss her down but felt so guilty for it she felt as it did and that Yasuda also ended up believing she did.
Yasuda feels she's forniture because she has a body that can't be loved. This can cause her to think that her love story with George wouldn't work and, even if Battler were to return, her love story would still fail so she would be trapped in a life in which she can't be loved and I believe her biggest wish was to be loved.
That's an interesting theory, if only because it requires a level of love for Natsuhi that I didn't expect very many people to possess.

However, when it comes to humans, it's definitely possible to find happiness in love without the physical aspect of it being involved. Maybe I'm just being idealistic when I say that? Today's society seems to believe otherwise. Well, whatever.

I think that the reason she thinks that her love with Battler will fail, is that he forgot the promise and therefore, her love might be one-sided.

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Yes, that's the problem I've with this theory... even thought the siblings must have come on Rokkenjima with a plan since they wanted Krauss & Natsuhi to confess they hid Kinzo's death.
'Plan X' might have been saying that Kinzo handed one of them the ring while they were there. To disprove this Krauss and Natsuhi would have to show the original ring. If Kinzo never parted from it they could claim Krauss had gotten it merely because Kinzo is dead.
This just doesn't seem logical. =/ Eva may be quite the schemer, but... Would she really do this? And there's no evidence to imply that such a scheme exists, as far as I know. Though, I must admit that if she had done this, I would give her points for making an interesting trap where pretty much all possible responses from Krauss and Natsuhi on the matter will screw them over.

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The problem is why Yasuda let herself be bribed? She doesn't need the money as she has the gold. So either she's accepting the bribe because she has her own agenda or because she wants to pin Natsuhi. And in the end people really died (and possibly the island exploded) so who killed them (and caused the island to explode) if not her?
My idea was that Yasuda went along with it just because it coincided with her own interests. She loves Battler, but she doesn't like Natsuhi.

It seems that many people believe that the victims of the 1st and 2nd twilights in EP5 didn't actually die yet. That does leave us the question of how they did die, huh. I'm interested to know just what happened in the part of EP5 that we didn't see now.

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I've many guesses as well but the problem is to check if they're true. And so far we can't do it. We're a gentle version of the trial in EP 5. We check the facts we've at hands and try to construct a red truth that will match. We'll try to make it better than Erika, not with the purpose to harrass someone, but to be sure we've found the real truth and not just a truth that looks plausible we need to be able to check our answers with Ryukishi's... -_-
I see. It's true that no matter how much effort you put into finding the truth of Yasuda's motive (or the rest of Umineko for that matter), you'll always have to ask yourself: "is there something I might have missed?" Because there still might be some clue that you didn't take into account for whatever reason. And this would continue on infinitely until you find an answer you're satisfied with, or give up.

Well, Ryukishi did say something in that interview, about having plans to eventually give the answer:

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R That really is a model of a perfect locked room. If you don’t think of Shannon’s suicide, it seems pretty skillful. There is just no gun in that room. So what became of the gun? From then on it depends on imagination. I am actually thinking about revealing the part about the gun in one panel in the comic-version of EP7 which is in production right now. The fight between Will and Clair in the comic is still at least one year away, but I think by that point it will be okay to make this public.

K So you plan on revealing the truth for those who keep demanding for it, slowly, bit by bit?!

R Basically yes. But more than just being told that they can believe, I think people will come closer to it just by reading your book KEIYA.
No idea when it might be though. Actually, it might even be that Our Confessions was it. Or maybe that was just another bit of the truth he planned on releasing over time.

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I've the feeling Yasuda didnt plan to stay with George, regardless of Battler returning or not due to her 'body that can't love'.
Possibly she planned to disappear after receiving his ring. Episode 7 hints at how a crime would have happened regardless of Battler returning, though it would have been 'different'. If she were to commit suicide or fake her death after George asked her to marry him, we've a different crime.
It's true that his dream of the future pained her, and that she wasn't able to admit the truth to him, but I don't know if it would really reach this point... Well, maybe. In one part of the interview, R07 seems to be saying that the closed room of Natsuhi's room in EP2 was a lover's suicide due to something like this.

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I think the variants required to understand Yasuda are more than just having been honestly in love, though that's probably part of the puzzle.
Her situation is rather complicate and I think just loving/having loved someone isn't enough to put ourselves in her shoes... though it might help us to understand her desperation at the idea her love can go wasted due to her injury.
It feels like R07 put a lot of effort into making her unique, and then painted her as a villain, and dared us to try and understand her. Some will decide not to even try because it's too difficult, and some will decide the same because they don't like the few details they've already got. Normally, making a character in this way doesn't seem to make sense, but I think it can all be explained if Ryukishi really loves this character.

I feel like I can understand a lot of what she's gone through, but I have no experience with love, so I haven't been able to figure out that part. For a time, I actually tried to explain things by removing some of the significance of her love, but now that I've read that interview, I can't do that anymore. So I'm at a loss right now.

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Umineko makes clear how Kinzo, Kirye and Rosa went through hell because they lost their loved ones. Kinzo became mad, Kirye had almost reached the point of being willing to kill her rival and Rosa's not realy handling things well, though she vent most of her frustration on Maria.

Probably they were supposed to be hints to how Yasuda can't stand to losing her loved one/ones.
Hm... Perhaps. It was said, in EP3 I think, that Beatrice would have been able to wait for any number of years if she knew how many years it would be. It's because she has no idea how much longer it will be, that she has trouble. It's understandable.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
The Man From 19 Years Ago is voiced by the same person who voices Battler. By this alone. It is also mildly implied by Battler's 'hallucination' that he already knew the way to the Golden Land. Therefore, my conclusion does not violate Knox's 8th.
It's possible that they decided to have Battler's seiyuu voice TMF19YA because of his theory at the end that he actually is that person, and because having Beato's seiyuu try to make a manly voice might ruin the seriousness of the moment.

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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
The difference is that Yasu and the Siblings are both shown solving the mechanism in the Chapel and seeing the first statue from the steeple's viewpoint. Battler and Erika were wandering around in the rain. They might not have even activated the Chapel Mechanism.
If they didn't activate the mechanism, then the direction of the statues would not have changed, and the secret pathway that they were supposed to be pointing to would not have opened. Because they did reach the room of the gold after this scene, it should be enough to prove that they did activate it.
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