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Old 2012-03-09, 13:30   Link #28101
GreyZone
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
At the very least, the Professor doesn't seem to believe that in the slightest, and indeed is suspicious as to who actually did write them. If prominent academic Witch Hunters don't believe Maria is the author, then it's very likely nobody does. If the actual story structure reflects what we see to some extent (Battler is narrator, etc.), then there's no way anyone would believe that.

Though, as always, this continues to raise the question of why the writer signed Maria's name to the damn messages, something that's never been adequately explained.
The hand writing of some passages in Maria's diary match with the hand writing in the message bottles.

If we asume, that it was "Beatrice", whose hand writing that was, then i present following theory:

While Yasuda discussed Mysteries with Battler, she discussed fantasy stories with Maria... including the message bottles. In EP1-2 Maria was an accomplice after all.
So to show her respect to her pupil-witch, she signed with her name. I still think they were written pre-incident... shortly after she heard that Battler returns, of course.
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Old 2012-03-09, 14:10   Link #28102
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That just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

"As a show of respect, I'm going to make everyone think you wrote these stories even though a casual investigation will prove that you didn't."

It doesn't really add up. If everything - from the bottles to Maria's diary - were a hoax, I could maybe view it as a "clue" of sorts: "You've got the message in front of you, now look in Maria's diary to find my handwriting there. I'm not Maria, but now you have more hints as to who I really am!" But that's about it.
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Old 2012-03-09, 14:28   Link #28103
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Well, personally I would remove such explosive from under my island if I were to become the owner of Rokkenjima... and as fast as I can. Just disconnecting it wouldn't make me feel safe enough and I'm not sure Genji would know how to disconnect/remove it.
Indeed, I do think it was pretty insane of Kinzo to even do that.

Although couldn't Genji hire someone for that job? Given how he introduced Yasuda into Rokujima, told Yasu that it could be arranged that the gold gets converted into cash, it is possible that he could find someone to do that. More so that there is still Kruass who could probably do that anyway if he knew about it. Genji could just bring that up after Kinzo's death that someone should think about what to do with the explosives.


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Betting everything would mean to take into consideration the possibility the bomb wouldn't be turned off and therefore that would kill everyone.
While maybe it's not at the level of, 'I'll surely kill everyone regardless of what will happen' it becomes 'If this doesn't happen I'll surely kill everyone' which well... imply a certain determination to be willing to kill people. If the bomb was turned on when there were living people around the only way to cut out the willingness to kill people is to think she planned to turn it off before it would explode.
Turning the bomb on would still be a stupid thing to do but at least there is no murder intent.
Yes that is what it means to gamble. That you have to consider the worse case scenario, that you lose everything. Magic or a miracle is about achieving a result despite high odds. It is just something I could see Yasuda having a fascination with magic/gambling/miracles has been a very strong point in Umineko.

You bring up murder intent but let me ask you this.

If you take your friends and family to a dangerous location to do something that you feel is important and you are aware that it is a real possibility that someone could die.

Does that mean that you brought them to that place with any intent to murder? Certainly you are endangering their lives for perhaps a selfish reason but that is not necessarily murderous intent. At the very least I could see that as a self justification for Yasuda why she would do that.

Though the end it is possible that she flipped the switch with the intent to turn it off like you said.

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Plus the bomb is tied to Beato's existence. It's because the police can't investigate on how the people died that the catbox was created, allowing Beato to live in it.
An interesting interpretation. So that is what you are suggesting that is what Will meant with his answer? That the answer to "who am I" are that explosives the allows Beatrice to exist in catbox?

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The counter-theory is that pieceYasuda was willing to do so while PrimeYasuda had a different aim.
Certainly possible.


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The problem would be why would Eva kill Battler. Either she though he was an accomplice (and here we've to wonder if she was right or she misunderstood something) or she did it out of darker reasons.
Well there are quite a few reasons.
  • Battler was an accomplice
  • Battler had either a direct or indirect hand in the death of a member of Eva's family(possible accident or self-defense)
  • Battler was close to the culprit and/or accomplices but Eva due to mistrustful nature tries to kill him or at least drive him away


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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
T
That just makes her crazy, though. That's no better.

I think most people don't want to believe that any of the people who actually knew or should have known about the switch would ever intend to use it, even in the way Kinzo is said to have, because to do so means they're either evil or deeply disturbed. There are other, more tragic but forgivable explanations, it's just impossible to know which one (if any one) is true.
You bring up plausible possibilities on what could have happened and indeed it is impossible to know which one could be true.

Although is there any indication that Yasu is not a disturbed teenager given the amount of issues that she has? You could say that is a cop-out answer to declare her "disturbed" but that seems to be a reasonable assumption. Though we could debate to what extent that Yasu is disturbed from bathing in the blood of her relatives after a murderous rampage or just having an overactive imagination.
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Old 2012-03-09, 14:30   Link #28104
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
At the very least, the Professor doesn't seem to believe that in the slightest, and indeed is suspicious as to who actually did write them. If prominent academic Witch Hunters don't believe Maria is the author, then it's very likely nobody does. If the actual story structure reflects what we see to some extent (Battler is narrator, etc.), then there's no way anyone would believe that.
Well, it was proved the writing didn't match Maria's and the style was supposed to be of a older person.

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Though, as always, this continues to raise the question of why the writer signed Maria's name to the damn messages, something that's never been adequately explained.
I wonder if the messages, who were supposed to be more than 2, where all signed Ushiromiya Maria because in each plan Yasuda planned to have Maria survive along with Battler till the end.
It would make sense she would find hard to kill Maria personally.
Banquet however was written by the duo Hachijo Toya and Toya might have had no problem in 'killing' Maria earlier in his tale.
Also it was Eva Beatrice who chose Maria as next victim. This can be a metaphor to imply an interference in the original Beatrice/Yasuda's plans in which Maria wasn't supposed to be killed that early in the tales.

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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Except ... we were told that the first forgery by Tohya had accounted for everything up to and including Eva's flight to the Kuwadorian. This gets even harder when you take End / Dawn into account, where Maria dies, like, immediately. Besides, despite the message bottles being the basis for people's conspiracy theories, I doubt anyone actually believed they were penned by Maria Ushiromiya.
Unless the message was written by Ghost Maria. ^_-
There are some stories who're written in first person by a character who is... well dead during the story (or dies before the story reaches its end), or he's in coma or something.

Of course if that's the case no one would believe it was the real Maria that was writing the story but hey, it could be interesting.
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Old 2012-03-09, 14:37   Link #28105
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
I doubt that Kanon was just made up.

The witch hunters asked the other fukuin servants for sure, that were offduty that day... (i think this was even confirmed at some point) also Jessica's friends from school to confirm that one scene from EP2 were he went there as her boyfriend.

I cannot imagine that they all lied about Kanon...
When the goats attacked Kanon and Jessica in the invasion of the Golden Land during EP8, they argued that Kanon didn't exist. Jessica argued back citing how her friends at school saw him. IIRC the other Fukuin servants weren't brought up.

I certainly think that Kanon made an appearance at Jessica's school once, but that doesn't mean that Yasu dressed as Kanon at home (although that doesn't preclude Yasu from "play-acting" Kanon privately around people like Maria, Genji, and maybe Jessica). And if that's the case, then Natsuhi and everyone else may never have even "met" Kanon.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
That just makes her crazy, though. That's no better.

Consider the various reasons you, as Kinzo or Yasu or Genji or whoever knows about it, might not disable the bomb:
Well, there's also the fact that Yasu's characterization doesn't seem to show her having a strong sense of personal responsibility. It doesn't seem implausible to me that Yasu knew about the bomb, never intended to use it, and yet still avoided dealing with it.

There's also the sense of power it might give her, which Yasu's Beatrice side might take pleasure in. She may never really intend to use it, but like the fact that she could. This probably applies even better to Kinzo's motive in having it than to Yasu's, actually.

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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
EP7 Tea Part Eva never questioned where Kanon was, after all,
Ah yes I had forgotten that. He doesn't even seem to exist in that entire Tea Party.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Though, as always, this continues to raise the question of why the writer signed Maria's name to the damn messages, something that's never been adequately explained.
I don't think there's much to explain. Signing the stories "The Golden Witch, Beatrice" wasn't subtle enough, so Yasu used Maria's name. People are more inclined to believe things that they feel they came up with by themselves than things they were simply told to believe. Especially those conspiracy-theorist (Witch Hunter) types.
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Old 2012-03-09, 15:09   Link #28106
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I certainly think that Kanon made an appearance at Jessica's school once, but that doesn't mean that Yasu dressed as Kanon at home (although that doesn't preclude Yasu from "play-acting" Kanon privately around people like Maria, Genji, and maybe Jessica). And if that's the case, then Natsuhi and everyone else may never have even "met" Kanon.
Hey, what if Jessica asked Shannon to "Dress up as a boy and come with me to this school party thing. I said to all my classmates that I had a boyfriend, I would be so embarassed if they saw me alone"

Just popped into my mind. Sounds kind of silly.
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Old 2012-03-09, 15:10   Link #28107
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Well, there's also the fact that Yasu's characterization doesn't seem to show her having a strong sense of personal responsibility. It doesn't seem implausible to me that Yasu knew about the bomb, never intended to use it, and yet still avoided dealing with it.

There's also the sense of power it might give her, which Yasu's Beatrice side might take pleasure in. She may never really intend to use it, but like the fact that she could. This probably applies even better to Kinzo's motive in having it than to Yasu's, actually.
That's true, and it does provide a somewhat more redeeming motive for Kinzo. When Genji suggested he sometimes flipped the switch, it may well have been that Kinzo always intended to turn it back off again.

As far as the "Yasu doesn't ever want to use it, but feels no desire to do anything about it" thing goes, it's plausible enough. Still, you'd think she'd be a bit more circumspect about the whole thing.
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Originally Posted by Wanderer
I don't think there's much to explain. Signing the stories "The Golden Witch, Beatrice" wasn't subtle enough, so Yasu used Maria's name. People are more inclined to believe things that they feel they came up with by themselves than things they were simply told to believe. Especially those conspiracy-theorist (Witch Hunter) types.
Again though, she has no reason to care and no purpose to doing it unless this is all part of a larger "hoax." Hell, even asking the general public to "find the truth" is actually counter to her purposes unless it's all meant to be an elaborate game of sorts. In other words I'm saying I can't really buy that unless she survived and always intended to do so.
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Old 2012-03-09, 17:48   Link #28108
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Hey, what if Jessica asked Shannon to "Dress up as a boy and come with me to this school party thing. I said to all my classmates that I had a boyfriend, I would be so embarassed if they saw me alone"

Just popped into my mind. Sounds kind of silly.
But then there would be no need for the duel in EP 6. Unless Jessica fell in love with Shannon dressed up as Kanon, and for the sake of Jessica, Yasu decided to give Kanon a proper form. Although I doubt that Jessica would be able to see past something like that.
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Old 2012-03-09, 18:32   Link #28109
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
When the goats attacked Kanon and Jessica in the invasion of the Golden Land during EP8, they argued that Kanon didn't exist. Jessica argued back citing how her friends at school saw him. IIRC the other Fukuin servants weren't brought up.
Well, surely is weird they weren't brough up. Just checking... there were other Fukuin servants who should have worked at Rokkenjima and that happened not to be on the island when the incident took place, weren't there?

Because I always found odd how, with more people on the island, the servants would be less then usual... though I seem to remember that somewhere it was said there were more servants than Shannon, Kanon, Genji, Gohda and Kumasawa... though it's also possible that due to echonomical problems Krauss fired theother servants but in front of the cousins merely said they 'were on a holiday' or something...

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
I certainly think that Kanon made an appearance at Jessica's school once, but that doesn't mean that Yasu dressed as Kanon at home (although that doesn't preclude Yasu from "play-acting" Kanon privately around people like Maria, Genji, and maybe Jessica). And if that's the case, then Natsuhi and everyone else may never have even "met" Kanon.
There would be the problem of Toya remembering him and Shannon both.
Unless Toya's memories contain deceptions directed at us or Shannon dressed up as Kanon during the family conference and the others kept up the deception of Kanon working for the Ushiromiya by a while...


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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Well, there's also the fact that Yasu's characterization doesn't seem to show her having a strong sense of personal responsibility. It doesn't seem implausible to me that Yasu knew about the bomb, never intended to use it, and yet still avoided dealing with it.

There's also the sense of power it might give her, which Yasu's Beatrice side might take pleasure in. She may never really intend to use it, but like the fact that she could. This probably applies even better to Kinzo's motive in having it than to Yasu's, actually.
I agree!

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
That's true, and it does provide a somewhat more redeeming motive for Kinzo. When Genji suggested he sometimes flipped the switch, it may well have been that Kinzo always intended to turn it back off again.

As far as the "Yasu doesn't ever want to use it, but feels no desire to do anything about it" thing goes, it's plausible enough. Still, you'd think she'd be a bit more circumspect about the whole thing.
It fit well with her personality though. I can see her turning the switch on, believing this would give her some control on her life/fate because hey, she can turn it off as well. Some teenagers with troubles would like this sort of risky games in which they believe they have some sort of control and nothing wrong will happen... though sometimes said games end up killing them.
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Old 2012-03-09, 23:29   Link #28110
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Ah yes I had forgotten that. He doesn't even seem to exist in that entire Tea Party.
Well, I think it was a glossed over part of Beatrice's exposition dump to the adults in the gold room. Why it was glossed over, I couldn't say, since by this point Bern knows about Shkanon, and it seems odd to present her psycho murder drama with the beautifying element of using Beato's sprite. <_<

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Well, surely is weird they weren't brough up. Just checking... there were other Fukuin servants who should have worked at Rokkenjima and that happened not to be on the island when the incident took place, weren't there?

Because I always found odd how, with more people on the island, the servants would be less then usual... though I seem to remember that somewhere it was said there were more servants than Shannon, Kanon, Genji, Gohda and Kumasawa... though it's also possible that due to echonomical problems Krauss fired theother servants but in front of the cousins merely said they 'were on a holiday' or something...
If I remember correctly, yes, there are at least a couple other servants who were working for the Ushiromiya's at that time. I don't remember the exact place it was said, but my understanding is that Genji is the only "full time" servant, and possibly Godha (his main thing was cooking, but outside of when the family had guests he was pretty much a regular servant, that also cooked). The others worked on a rotating shift of sorts, with 3-4 work days being typical, and usually only 2-3 servants on active duty on a normal day. If that doesn't sound like much, keep in mind that the Ushiromiya's were known to expect a lot from their servants, and paid them an absurd amount of money, which is why most of the orphans considered it a huge opportunity to work there for a year or two before going off to start their adult lives.

tl:dr, the 5 servants present during the conference is actually way more than they'd usually have present at once, since they have so many guests coming, and all but Godha are helpful for keeping Kinzo's crazy, dead-ass kind of alive. The gnitty-gritty of "Where do these people sleep on their off days? The orphanage?" or "Why isn't Shannon going to school anymore?" go kind of unaddressed. Also, considering Masayuki and Sakabichi were only able to access two of many safety deposit boxes, I've often thought that the others were Yasu having bribed the hell out of other Fukuin servants and possibly administrators to lie about Kanon. I dunno.
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Old 2012-03-12, 00:09   Link #28111
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New here.

I finished umineko a little bit ago and was discussing with a friend about something and wanted some clarification:

How many bodies are actually on the island? The general consensus is that there are 17? But from what Battler said at the very end of Ep6 he seems to suggest there are 16?

"I am the visitor, the 18th human on Rokkenjima!! [......Sorry, but...] Even if you do join us- There are 17 people"

Doesn't that suggest, WITH Erika, there would be 17 people, but since Erika doesn't actually exist the actual number is in fact 16?
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Old 2012-03-12, 00:20   Link #28112
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Yes. There are only 16 living people on Rokkenjima.

Fun fact: the number of pieces a player starts with in a game of chess is also 16.

There were a lot of scenes where Ryuukishi was making chess analogies throughout the game, so you could say this was hinted from the very beginning, in a sense.
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Old 2012-03-12, 00:30   Link #28113
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Yes. There are only 16 living people on Rokkenjima.

Fun fact: the number of pieces a player starts with in a game of chess is also 16.

There were a lot of scenes where Ryuukishi was making chess analogies throughout the game, so you could say this was hinted from the very beginning, in a sense.
Doesn't this pretty much cement the shkanon theory? But i've seen posts in this thread of people arguing against it. Is it just people refusing to accept such a farfetched theory or am I missing something?
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Old 2012-03-12, 00:51   Link #28114
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Doesn't this pretty much cement the shkanon theory? But i've seen posts in this thread of people arguing against it. Is it just people refusing to accept such a farfetched theory or am I missing something?
With Answer to the Golden Witch, Our Confessions and of course all the hints that fill the games, Ryuukishi pretty much confirmed that Yasu is the culprit of all the gameboards.

However, it is still unknown whether Yasu was really the culprit in the real world or not.
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Old 2012-03-12, 00:55   Link #28115
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But then there would be no need for the duel in EP 6. Unless Jessica fell in love with Shannon dressed up as Kanon, and for the sake of Jessica, Yasu decided to give Kanon a proper form. Although I doubt that Jessica would be able to see past something like that.
Honestly, I'm skeptical of JessicaXKanon in prime. It always felt like their relationship developed through the successive fictions.

Who knows how serisouly the real Jessica thought of Kanon...

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There would be the problem of Toya remembering him and Shannon both.
Unless Toya's memories contain deceptions directed at us or Shannon dressed up as Kanon during the family conference and the others kept up the deception of Kanon working for the Ushiromiya by a while...
Yes.

Also, it's possible that showing Kanon's sprite doesn't mean that Yasu made a physical appearance as Kanon. You know how RK07 likes to use sprites in confusing ways...

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Doesn't this pretty much cement the shkanon theory? But i've seen posts in this thread of people arguing against it. Is it just people refusing to accept such a farfetched theory or am I missing something?
I think you're missing something. There are lots of things people argue about, but rarely do people argue against ShKanon. Although people will argue for their particular interpretation of it...
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Old 2012-03-12, 08:55   Link #28116
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Doesn't this pretty much cement the shkanon theory? But i've seen posts in this thread of people arguing against it. Is it just people refusing to accept such a farfetched theory or am I missing something?
Well, I guess until ep6, many people are still in denial, because, to be honest, the Skhanon thing did not make sense in many way of interpretation. Until the game kinda scream it in your face in ep7, I guess not many people arguing against it anymore, but rather whether Shkanon is supposed to be the truth in Prime or just fiction, or details like that.
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Old 2012-03-12, 09:28   Link #28117
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Episode 8 seems to suggest that in Prime no murders happened. At least that's what Beatrice seems to imply. She tells Ange that it was her fault for writing those message bottles that everyone thinks the serial murders happened.
However there's Eva and her refusal to reveal the truth. So something must have happened. Perhaps someone dying in an accident (like it was shown in EP7). And the novel suggest that she either hid it for Ange's sake or for Hideyoshi's and George's (for George's sake she could have kept quiet about Shannon being the culprit too).
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Old 2012-03-12, 10:11   Link #28118
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Doesn't that suggest, WITH Erika, there would be 17 people, but since Erika doesn't actually exist the actual number is in fact 16?
It certainly does seem that way. There's also the interpretation that their final red is being made about Prime, wherein Erika likely just didn't survive the drift to the island, and thus doesn't count, like Kinzo.

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Honestly, I'm skeptical of JessicaXKanon in prime. It always felt like their relationship developed through the successive fictions.

Who knows how serisouly the real Jessica thought of Kanon...
True ... well, it kinda HAD to be developed in the fictions, since we were almost explicitly told that at best, in Prime, Jessica harbored a crush, but that was about it. It would be kind of odd if R07 had fabricated their feelings, since he went out of his way to verify that ShannonxGeorge was genuine in an interview.
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Old 2012-03-12, 14:28   Link #28119
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It certainly does seem that way. There's also the interpretation that their final red is being made about Prime, wherein Erika likely just didn't survive the drift to the island, and thus doesn't count, like Kinzo.



True ... well, it kinda HAD to be developed in the fictions, since we were almost explicitly told that at best, in Prime, Jessica harbored a crush, but that was about it. It would be kind of odd if R07 had fabricated their feelings, since he went out of his way to verify that ShannonxGeorge was genuine in an interview.
When was it said that Jessica only harbored a crush at most in Rprime?
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Old 2012-03-12, 14:47   Link #28120
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Sorta temporarily dont have access to the internet...
... but concerning the bomb, a funny idea...
I was thinking that although completely absurd, its not any worst then the current accepted idea to think that the explosives were deforestation and excavation tools bought by Krauss who attempted to find Kinzos hidden gold.

It's crazy and stupid, yeah, but at least it doesn't make anyone into a demon.
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