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Old 2009-11-04, 12:18   Link #2881
ijriims
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Actually if Battler realized all things in EP5, how many episodes are left? One or two? One for deconstructing Erika's arguments and solved all mysteries. And one for fixing all the events and prevent the murders (endgame or stalemate)?
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:18   Link #2882
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That's right it was a tie. But that game was a game between Lambda and Bernkastel (using Erika as a proxy). Battler only jumped in between near the end of the game, and played the "nuisance" role by destroying Erika's sure victory.
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:20   Link #2883
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That's right it was a tie. But that game was a game between Lambda and Bernkastel (using Erika as a proxy). Battler only jumped in between near the end of the game, and played the "nuisance" role by destroying Erika's sure victory.
But the whole point of EP5 is that Erika stole Battler seat as a player, and at the end, Lambda gave hers to Battler.

And then, ended in tie. So, it's logical to think that the game will continue in EP6.
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:29   Link #2884
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That's the mindfuck in it actually. Battler was supposed to take back his seat from Bernkastel. Instead he helped the witch's side, and the witch's side helped him.

However while I can understand why Battler acted that way in Episode5, I fail to see why he'd still want to play on the witch's side in Episode6. Being a witch or a gamemaster doesn't mean that you necessarily need to play in that role. We know this because Erika was both things before Battler woke up and she still planned to deny witches and magic.

I can only assume that Lambda was planning on playing on the witch's side in Episode6, even though she wasn't the gamemaster anymore. I imagine she will still take that role. There must be someone who must take that position, and certainly that someone won't be Bernkastel.
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:29   Link #2885
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Originally Posted by sento View Post
But the whole point of EP5 is that Erika stole Battler seat as a player, and at the end, Lambda gave hers to Battler.

And then, ended in tie. So, it's logical to think that the game will continue in EP6.
But a new game should begin then. It's already considered Oct 6 1986 in the human world when EP 5 ends, which is the official end game time. So I think it should begin with a brand new board.

After all, most games before this also ended in ties (Battler didn't believe in witches, Beato didn't prove crimes could only be done with magic)
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:34   Link #2886
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That's the mindfuck in it actually. Battler was supposed to take back his seat from Bernkastel. Instead he helped the witch's side, and the witch's side helped him.

However while I can understand why Battler acted that way in Episode5, I fail to see why he'd still want to play on the witch's side in Episode6.
I think that he did that because... well, he knows the truth, he can't take back his seat from Erika, and she is framing his family and ruining the game... So he acts.

Then, he ends as a gamemaster, and until Beato comes back, he will be at that position facing the "ugly mystery" aproach.

But... I think that EP5 destroyed the whole "human side and witch side". EP6 will probably be a mystery-based game.
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:41   Link #2887
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And yet...nothing happens at midnight on Oct 5th that still kills everyone? Or at least nothing happens where everyone was at that time.
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Old 2009-11-04, 12:51   Link #2888
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And yet...nothing happens at midnight on Oct 5th that still kills everyone? Or at least nothing happens where everyone was at that time.
Nope.

Spoiler for EP 5:
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Old 2009-11-04, 13:07   Link #2889
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I don't think Ryukishi is lying, but I do think that he's got a biased perspective of what is good hint. Of course this is common with many mystery authors, they tend to place hints here and there and then in the end explain: you see I left you a hint here, you should have understood everything from that. But the truth is from a rational standpoint that hint wasn't a good hint at all and it could have led to many other possibilities not just the right one.

I hope this is not the case with Ryukishi, but I'm prepared to something like that, I've just a had a little taste of that with the epitaph.
I think you're giving Ryuukishi too little credit. He's already said on multiple occasions that people have gotten large individual sections of the game right, and if that's true, then he must have been giving out good hints. As I've mentioned and as he's said time and again in-game and out, there doesn't need to be a single theory which jumps out as obvious. Let's face it: if he made a mystery which had one "most likely answer", it would probably be completely solved long before he reached the final Core Arcs. This game doesn't have the release schedule to fit the genre some of you guys seem to expect.

In other words, don't look for a "the answer", just try to find some good answers and you should be able to solve most of the game. If you read Ryuukishi's interview, he mentions that the reason he leaves hints is so that people who know can strengthen their argument. So even if a hint doesn't lead you to the truth by itself, you can't call it an invalid hint.

Oh, and Ryuukishi has said that he doesn't expect anyone to solve the epitaph until close to the end. I assume that's why he shifts the focus in EP5 to why the epitaph even exists in the first place. It might be solvable before the end, but it doesn't have to be.
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Old 2009-11-04, 14:29   Link #2890
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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
And yet...nothing happens at midnight on Oct 5th that still kills everyone? Or at least nothing happens where everyone was at that time.
As I recall, I don't think we get to see what's going on in the human world after midnight...

But I wouldn't know.

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Nope.

Spoiler for EP 5:
I'm working off of the theory that it's not a human directly responsible for what happens at midnight... It's relatively difficult to destroy a body so utterly that all that's left is a jawbone.

Of course, if the humans actually were confirmed to survive like Eva did, then that's another story...
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Old 2009-11-04, 14:40   Link #2891
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I think you're giving Ryuukishi too little credit. He's already said on multiple occasions that people have gotten large individual sections of the game right, and if that's true, then he must have been giving out good hints. .
That's not necessarily true. Seeing as how pretty much every single person of the cast has been suspected of being the culprit, it goes by itself that a few people have "guessed" the right one. The same thing can apply for other situations. Considering how many theories have been developed, there is a high chance one of them happens to be right or very close to the right one.

But if such theory is stated and the hints to back it are shown and yet only a few people recognize it as a valid theory I think this is proof enough that the hints aren't very good.

You see to me a hint is a good hint if when truth is exposed and the hint to back it are shown, you scream: "damn it! of course!".
Since such a thing didn't occur to me, and Ryukishi said that someone guessed the right theory, I can only imagine that the truth is not something that would convince me.

It would have been a lot better to me if Ryukishi told me: "no one went even close to know the truth yet".

I can only hope that those theories Ryukishi is talking about only appeared in japanese forums and therefore never reached my eyes.
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Old 2009-11-04, 21:45   Link #2892
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That's not necessarily true. Seeing as how pretty much every single person of the cast has been suspected of being the culprit, it goes by itself that a few people have "guessed" the right one. The same thing can apply for other situations. Considering how many theories have been developed, there is a high chance one of them happens to be right or very close to the right one.

But if such theory is stated and the hints to back it are shown and yet only a few people recognize it as a valid theory I think this is proof enough that the hints aren't very good.

You see to me a hint is a good hint if when truth is exposed and the hint to back it are shown, you scream: "damn it! of course!".
Since such a thing didn't occur to me, and Ryukishi said that someone guessed the right theory, I can only imagine that the truth is not something that would convince me.

It would have been a lot better to me if Ryukishi told me: "no one went even close to know the truth yet".

I can only hope that those theories Ryukishi is talking about only appeared in japanese forums and therefore never reached my eyes.
Well, believe it or not, the Japanese forums are a hell of a lot bigger than the Animesuki sub-board. I think the main 2ch thread series is at over 600,000 posts or something. Also, a lot of people write Ryuukishi directly (they have an email for that), so there may be plenty of theories out there that you won't find on any board.

Let's give Ryuukishi a chance here. You're basically saying that because you couldn't solve the series, there weren't enough hints. While you're probably one of the more experienced theory makers around here, both you and I are far from perfect.

Just because Ryuukishi doesn't spell out the answer for us with a series of clues that constitute absolute proof of a theory doesn't mean he's failed in anything. In fact, I prefer it that way. Otherwise, EP6-8 would be incredibly boring.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2009-11-04 at 22:06.
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Old 2009-11-04, 22:22   Link #2893
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Well, believe it or not, the Japanese forums are a hell of a lot bigger than the Animesuki sub-board. I think the main 2ch thread series is at over 600,000 posts or something. Also, a lot of people write Ryuukishi directly (they have an email for that), so there may be plenty of theories out there that you won't find on any board.
No offense meant to the Japanese posters, but volume doesn't equal quality and we've had more than enough repetition and noise in our own musings. I have to believe there is nothing the Japanese fanbase has theorized that hasn't been brought up at least once by someone here, language-based barriers notwithstanding (it's possible there's some clue that only makes sense in Japanese, but since parts of the riddles are apparently English-related, we ought to have an actual advantage there!).

Put simply, if there's a (valid, non joke) theory that only exists in the Japanese fanbase and is widely-regarded as being solid or "right," I'd like to see it. While I don't generally agree with Jan-Poo on theory grounds (although lately we do seem to be hitting it a bit closer), I have to agree that it's really not reasonable to say that the hints are good enough to crack the case right now. Do I think some people are about 80-90% right on most of the episodes, perhaps discounting 4? Yeah, I bet somebody's come close to hitting the nail on the head. But as Jan-Poo said, the truth should make hints obvious in hindsight.

If I say "Shannon faked her death in ep1 and arranged most of the killings," I may be 100% right. I may well have solved the first game. If I say Nanjo committed the First Twilight killings in ep3, I might be right there too. But these theories, if correct and true, ought to make other theories look inadequate. They don't, in no small part because establishing motive is so difficult right now. People don't accept any one episode's proffered solution as correct. And nobody - and I'd be amazed if anyone in Japan has anything coherent - has a clue about ep4. I certainly hope r07's not trying to tell me I can figure out what happened there (beyond the obvious guesses that don't specifically break down when anyone died, etc.). Figure out what the main themes of the story are, figure out who some of the major players are, sure, I can see that. The rest? Ehhhh.

Even if we have factual hints that would let us solve the mystery on the whole, I have to believe the only way to reach a consensus truth is to make a leap of logic on the motive ground, something I think is irresponsible to do. As it stands, certain episodes are solvable. I would even go so far as to say that ep1 and ep3 have been solved (in my opinion and in large part, at least). But if the author is gonna tell me to my face that it all makes sense and I can figure it all out... I'm calling BS. It all makes sense to him, but he knows what everyone's thinking. He knows what people are doing behind the scenes. When you start from the answer, it's very easy to construct a sequence of questions that lead you to it. It's much harder when you lack that.

It's not that he's being dishonest. I just think he thinks the clues he's provided are more telling than they are, because it's hard for him to "forget" what he as the author knows already and imagine he's somebody else. And I think that it will stay this way until we learn more about characters' motives. I don't mind if we're able to figure out who and how before the final episode. But I think it will be impossible to be "right" and be accepted as right before the end because he's hiding something about why that he can't reveal (because if experienced theory-makers knew the "why," they'd figure the rest out). That's fine, it's good tension. But it's still hiding a critical detail, and it still prevents us from actually living up to his claims of the mystery's capacity to be solved.
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Old 2009-11-04, 22:57   Link #2894
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Sorry, but the above post is exactly what I mean when I say people don't understand the genre of this series. If there was a single convincing theory for everything like you say, then every Umineko player that uses the internet (which would be a lot of them) would know the true answer already and there'd be little to no reason to play the rest of the series. You really think anyone would enjoy seeing Battler finally figure something out a year and a half after everyone else knew?

You guys have to read the games more closely. Remember the blue text? Every time that's brought up, he says the entire point of this game is making as many theories as you can and seeing which ones stand up the strongest. Not once has he ever claimed that a there MUST be a single "true" theory.

By "after EP4, the game is solvable", he probably means that it satisfies (or nearly satisfies) the principles behind the Knox rules. In other words, there might be many possible theories, but there has at least been foreshadowing and hints for every major part of the true answer.

Simply put, you're misquoting Ryuukishi. He says that we should be able to find the solution to the games, not that we should be able to prove that the solution we have is correct. The series isn't over yet.
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Old 2009-11-04, 23:00   Link #2895
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For a mystery-story writer, he or she does not need to give hint that necessarily lead to one definite theory. What he or she is supposed to do is to go out a theory that fits all the hints (disregarding the red-herrings), and articulates all the thinking process and motives. The theory posits could not be too trivial on one hand, but not relying on virtually improbable complicated plan which is unconvining on the other hand. To induce enough thinking and excitement, the writer has to strike the balance by giving out not-too-obvious clues while point towards the truth, which is extremely difficult to accomplish.

So I don't blame Ryukishi07 if he fails a little bit by expecting wrongly that some hints are good hints while in fact those are not hints at all from readers' point of view, or some readers thinking out a more convincing theory than Ryukishi07...
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Old 2009-11-04, 23:04   Link #2896
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I disagree. There's an answer and he knows it. If through some fluke a person were able to figure it out exactly, I think it'd be hard to argue with (it would, if nothing else, feel more "right" than other theories). He may not address every question, but there's no way he's leaving the core story up to differing interpretation. There's just no coherent way to write that way.

What he's doing is walking a difficult line. He can't make it too hard, or everyone will get frustrated and think he's cheating. He can't make it too easy, either; like any good mystery work, if it's obvious who did it right from the start, reading to the end isn't very enjoyable. And he's in a precarious position, as he's releasing not a mystery novel, but the equivalent of several novels on the same mystery. If it were easy enough to figure out from the start, people wouldn't want to buy future episodes.

You could argue it's a bit of... well, business sense.

But to say I don't "understand the genre of the series" is absurd and ridiculous. The reason we're supposed to use the blue to see which theories are strongest is because it would be bad business sense for the answer to be possible to figure out right away. But there is an answer. Ryukishi knows that answer. He may not spell it out (in fact, I strongly suspect he will never just outline "okay, here's exactly what happened when," and I don't have a problem with that), he may never fully address it, but if he's done his job right, by the end of ep8 or whatever the last episode is, most people who speculate on it will know it.

I don't think every answer will be known in the end. But I think most of them will. And I think most reasonable people will agree on them. And I also think, quite frankly, that many pertinent details that would lead to this will be kept hidden until the end for precisely that reason.
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Old 2009-11-04, 23:06   Link #2897
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The trouble is weeding out the red herrings from the theories. There are so many now that is seems impossible to sort out just what is possible and what isn't...mostly because most theories that are possible get destroyed in one episode or another, leading to them being considered red herrings.

Add to this the tendance of some rather wild theories sprouting up from time to time that can make sense. Ways to get around the red that blocks some theories...ways to keep some people from being blamed, or keeping some ships live.

(Also consider there are still unanswered question and theories in Higurashi)
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Old 2009-11-04, 23:15   Link #2898
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Spoiler for size:
I think you're missing my point somehow. I never said Ryuukishi doesn't have an answer, did I? Just that there doesn't have to be a single best answer known at the present time.

To explain what I said about the genre: the goal of this game is not to guess which is the right theory, it is to guess many theories and hope that one of them is right. So it doesn't matter how many red herrings you base theories around as long as you know they might be red herrings.

The above two lines are reiterated several times throughout the story, so I don't see how you can disagree with them. If you don't like that genre, then that's just too bad.
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Old 2009-11-04, 23:20   Link #2899
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One needs to add some further assumption about the authors' intention to minimize the number of possible theories. For example, if one holds that the authors would not destory any ship , then many theories involving Shannon killing George or Kanon killing Jessica could not be true (or at least a very good reason must be provided).

Some further assumptions could be added as well, like the final outcome is to prevent the tragedy from occuring, then some theories which depict the character as merciless or incurable selfish person cannot be what the author intends as well.

One needs to think outside of the universe to deduce what truth is in Ryukishi07's mind as well. In this sense, motives of the characters are very important, since Ryukishi07 is actually using the novels to convey some messages to us.

This is my way to reduce the red-herring. And because different people can have different assumptions of Ryukishi07's motives (premises are difficult to argue whether some are more rational than others), that's why I think many theories can exist right now.

In essense, to limit the scope of possible theories, one must put more assumptions, but different people agree on different assumptions.
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Old 2009-11-04, 23:29   Link #2900
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I think you're missing my point somehow. I never said Ryuukishi doesn't have an answer, did I? Just that there doesn't have to be a single best answer at the present time.
But there has to be a single "best" answer at some time. Inasmuch as that single "best" answer is not accessible on the clues that we have at present, "the truth" (as opposed to just "things that are true") is unattainable.

Quote:
To explain what I said about the genre: the goal of this game is not to guess which is the right theory, it is to guess many theories and hope that one of them is right. So it doesn't matter how many red herrings base theories around as long as you know they might be red herrings.

The above two lines are reiterated several times throughout the story, so I don't see how you can disagree with them. If you don't like that genre, then that's just too bad.
I think ep5 directly contradicts that thematically. In ep4, Battler views the blue text as a "shotgun," believing that if he can throw out enough theories which the red must respond to, he will win. He fails utterly with this approach (we wouldn't make such humor of "small bombs" if it weren't so perfectly indicative of how useless that blue theory was).

But ep5 directly demonstrates that random theorizing can lead to wrong answers and that blue text is just as useful for twisting the truth as the red. The blue text can obscure the truth just as badly if it isn't used properly. Battler, I think, understands this in the end. That's why he's focused on finding "the truth."

The truth, if it is anything, is the "right" answer to the mystery. By its nature, there is only one truth, though it may exist viewed through lenses of perception (a point Dlanor raises in ep5). In other words, the "right answer" to Umineko may have some waffling and contention and unanswered questions, as any resolution to a mystery tends to do. But there will be inarguable facts. Those facts will inform other speculations, and those speculations may be endless and up to interpretation.

But the question is, what layer of "solving" Umineko is the author saying is possible at this point? What truth do we have?

Thematic truth? I think we do have this. And I think most people on the internet speculating on Umineko do in fact know this. If we want to speculate on what Umineko is about, I think we're all in close agreement, more or less.

Narrative truth? I can kinda guess how the meta-world stuff will pan out. I can kinda guess what, as a writer, ryukishi will do in general terms. I think a lot of this does exist to be determined by now. If you don't know "where he's going" with the story, you're not reading close enough. Of course, that doesn't mean you know how it's going to turn out. But you kind of have expectations as to what the overarching plot arcs will be.

Factual truth? We do have some answers for some episodes. We know who could have done certain acts and, perhaps more importantly, who couldn't have. We don't have all the facts, but presumably we're going to get them (or see similar facts that give us ideas about how the others worked). But there are still a lot of factual holes: Who owns the stakes at game outset? What weapon is used for <insert crime here>?

Foundational truth? This is, I would posit, impossible at this point. There are simply things in many characters' hearts we don't know. But Battler has reached a point where he understands that you can't tell what's in a person's heart by flinging red and blue around (he defends Natsuhi in part because of the inhumanity that Erika employs reading motives into her that simply aren't there). If the cliffhanger of ep5 is that he's just understood this, then I doubt we're supposed to be able to know this.

If ryukishi is saying "You can figure out what this story is about," or "You can figure out how I'm writing this story and where it's going to go," I totally agree. If he's saying "You can figure out some factual truths," I also agree. If he's saying either "You can figure out every factual truth" or "You can figure out the fundamental nature of this mystery," I can't agree to that.

That's really my only point.
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