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Old 2012-06-03, 07:36   Link #29041
Jan-Poo
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This discussion is kinda going off topic but I always wondered why Rika couldn't simply tell Hanyuu to follow Tomitake after watanagashi.
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Old 2012-06-03, 08:06   Link #29042
haguruma
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
This discussion is kinda going off topic but I always wondered why Rika couldn't simply tell Hanyuu to follow Tomitake after watanagashi.
Well it is explained that Hanyuu is pretty angsty and afraid to do anything. Even if Rika told her Hanyuu would probably have chickened out.
A pretty convenient character trait to make her practically inexistent for 80% of the story. Ok, it came through that something like her was planned all along, but it just appears like Ryűkishi wanted to keep his options open.
Still this is one of the reasons why I just can't bring myself to like Hanyuu so much...she seems so pasted in.
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Old 2012-06-04, 20:23   Link #29043
JakeK08
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Okay, I'm new here but just wanted to share something I've been thinking about.

I think Natsuhi is aiding the culprit during episode 1.

Firstly, during the first episode on the morning of the first twilight she finds scratchings on her door and blood on the doorknob. My scenario is this: someone (most likely Krauss) was being targeted by the culprit. Natsuhi had earlier left the meeting and gone to bed so everyone knew she was in her room. Someone ran to her room while being chased as they knew she was in there. They tried the doorknob, covering it in blood, but the door was locked so they desperately scratched at the door. So do you think Natsuhi was awake and not opening the door on purpose (she was aiding the culprit) or was she simply asleep? And if it was Krauss what could make her not want to open the door to her own husband?

Also, the scene in Kinzo's study could show her as an accomplice. She "notices" the envelope first and then proceeds to kick Maria, and the remaining servants out. This would make it easy for the culprit to pick them off. So when did Natsuhi receive the envelope?

The fifth episode also shows Natsuhi aiding the culprit due to blackmail. The first and fifth episode are supposedly inter-locked so she could be blackmailed in the first episode too.

After finding Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji's bodies she leaves the room. Jessica claims she had an envelope. What could have been said in the envelope?

If this is true Natsuhi could just have an evil side and be aiding the culprit for greed or she could be being blackmailed (like during the fifth episode). Also, she seems very protective of Jessica in this episode. Maybe the culprit threatened to kill Jessica, but Natsuhi agreed to aid them in killing anyone but her.

Sorry for all the questions or if this has already been said, just want some ideas and thoughts on this.

Last edited by JakeK08; 2012-06-04 at 20:38.
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Old 2012-06-04, 21:12   Link #29044
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I prefer the blackmail theory. I'm pretty sure the envelope she got right before the ninth twilight in which she went out to the entrance hall was somehow sent by the child from 19 years ago.

The thing about Natsuhi's door is interesting because her door is almost always covered in those scratch marks, across a few chapters, regardless if she's dead or alive or in that room.

I think she may have had the envelopes and were told to find them at specific times, or Maria may have placed them "Uu! I'm her messenger!"

The envelope we had a discussion on page 1437-1438 about some of our ideas about it.
Some of us figured it was the child from nineteen years ago, others believe there may not have been an envelope in the first place. My guess is on the former.

Don't apologize, discussing our thoughts and theories is what this thread is for =)
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Old 2012-06-04, 23:25   Link #29045
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeK08 View Post
Firstly, during the first episode on the morning of the first twilight she finds scratchings on her door and blood on the doorknob. My scenario is this: someone (most likely Krauss) was being targeted by the culprit. Natsuhi had earlier left the meeting and gone to bed so everyone knew she was in her room. Someone ran to her room while being chased as they knew she was in there. They tried the doorknob, covering it in blood, but the door was locked so they desperately scratched at the door. So do you think Natsuhi was awake and not opening the door on purpose (she was aiding the culprit) or was she simply asleep? And if it was Krauss what could make her not want to open the door to her own husband?
There should be a trail of blood to and from the door as well in that case.

I think that the blood on the door is fake; it's merely decoration by the culprit just to screw with people, and to account for the "magic" of the scorpion charm.

I think that the surprisingly suspicious person in EP1 is Jessica, actually; between her randomly giving the scorpion charm to her mom (it's such a weird thing to do), her being the only one with Nanjo and Kanon when Nanjo "tried to save him", and, as you mention later in your post, she was the one who "noticed" Natsuhi had an envelope when she left the room.

But, yeah sure Natsuhi could be involved too. I'm of the opinion that it's all just a fake murder game anyway, and almost everyone is in on it in one way or another. Or if you prefer the play-it-strait murder route, she could easily have been blackmailed to play her part, just like in EP5.
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Old 2012-06-05, 07:11   Link #29046
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Originally Posted by RandomAvatarFan View Post
I prefer the blackmail theory. I'm pretty sure the envelope she got right before the ninth twilight in which she went out to the entrance hall was somehow sent by the child from 19 years ago.
This is pretty much provable by her lines when she meets "Beatrice" in the grand hall and says something along the lines "I never believed that someone like you actually existed" and kept on pondering how she was the one to carry on the name of Ushiromiya. That person being the child from 19 years ago, Yasu, the true heir, is a pretty obvious solution.
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Old 2012-06-05, 08:10   Link #29047
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
There should be a trail of blood to and from the door as well in that case.

I think that the blood on the door is fake; it's merely decoration by the culprit just to screw with people, and to account for the "magic" of the scorpion charm.
Why are the marks there in Turn?

This is one thing I never could figure out. The room gets used for something, yes, but Shannon can't have been the one putting them there unless she did so ahead of time, and if she did, it doesn't help the impression very much since she's creating a closed room at the end, so any marks on the outside don't really establish anything. Maybe if they'd been on the inside of the door?
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Old 2012-06-05, 09:03   Link #29048
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Why are the marks there in Turn?

This is one thing I never could figure out. The room gets used for something, yes, but Shannon can't have been the one putting them there unless she did so ahead of time, and if she did, it doesn't help the impression very much since she's creating a closed room at the end, so any marks on the outside don't really establish anything. Maybe if they'd been on the inside of the door?
I'd rather see it as a hint towards what actually happened. Remember the many inconsistencies about all the scenes connected to these murders in EP2.
What we are shown:
Gohda, George and Shannon going off to get a magic mirror
They get attacked in the chapel by Beatrice
They escape to Natsuhis room and barricade themselves in
Beatrice kills Gohda and breaks down the door
Beatrice finally kills Shannon and George together and creates a locked room

The hints we get:
There are scratchmarks on the outside of the door
Rosa keeps Battler from further examining the area around Shannon
We are told in Beatrices score that Shannon died first, then Gohda, then George

We can basically infer by that point already that the whole scene was hack and with the knowledge that Shannon was supposed to be the vessel of the murderer here, we could build the theory of a whole different scene and the marks on the door being one of the obvious TIPs towards that.
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Old 2012-06-05, 09:20   Link #29049
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Why are the marks there in Turn?

This is one thing I never could figure out. The room gets used for something, yes, but Shannon can't have been the one putting them there unless she did so ahead of time, and if she did, it doesn't help the impression very much since she's creating a closed room at the end, so any marks on the outside don't really establish anything. Maybe if they'd been on the inside of the door?
The same reason they're there in Legend, I guess: to make it seem like the culprit had trouble getting into Natsuhi's room because of the scorpion charm. In Legend it creates the illusion that Beatrice couldn't get in; in Turn, because Natsuhi dies at the first twilight, it creates the illusion that Beatrice did manage to get in but was somehow wounded in the process. Nobody actually picked up on it in Turn, since they didn't go to her room until way too late, but Beatrice likes pranks where she doesn't know whether they'll be noticed or not.

Also, I think Natsuhi's role in EP1 is the same as Rosa's in EP2. Their actions are far too similar throughout the whole episode, it makes it seem like they were both following a script decided on by Beatrice.
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Old 2012-06-05, 10:19   Link #29050
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Think I realized something...
The target of the stories, as in the intended reader, was probably always Ange.
If I think of arc 1-2 alone from truly an author theory pov, then I have to think the main character exists to appeal to the target reader. Be someone they can be sympathetic to, that they want to see "win". It wouldn't work if the target was himself Battler, as he wouldn't be sympathetic to a "fictional himself", rather would probably constantly think about how much "that isn't him" (especially since the alleged writer hasn't seen him in six years).

So the most obvious person that comes out as the intended reader, simply from having Battler as the main character, is Ange. However if that's not enough, just think about who the stories are credited to : Maria. That always seemed like an incomplete "bit", but it seems to make full sense that way. Battler as main character and Maria as the one credited with writing the stories is a way to ensure Ange reads them and is sympathetic to the main character.

I haven't really pushed this further, as exploring beyond that is pretty chaotic. Feel free to disregard this idea if it doesn't interest you.

Example of what it could, however, explain, is why the truth was never given to us.
If it was, young Ange would've learned it, but she wasn't mature enough to deal with it.
Only when she's mature enough to understand the truth does she stands a chance at reaching it.
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Old 2012-06-05, 11:15   Link #29051
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Originally Posted by Drifloon View Post
The same reason they're there in Legend, I guess: to make it seem like the culprit had trouble getting into Natsuhi's room because of the scorpion charm. In Legend it creates the illusion that Beatrice couldn't get in; in Turn, because Natsuhi dies at the first twilight, it creates the illusion that Beatrice did manage to get in but was somehow wounded in the process. Nobody actually picked up on it in Turn, since they didn't go to her room until way too late, but Beatrice likes pranks where she doesn't know whether they'll be noticed or not.
There's a couple problems with that, though:

1) Natsuhi never gets a charm in ep2.

2) There's no reason to believe Natsuhi was ever in her room on the night of the 4th anyway. While others may not know the adults went to the chapel, they were presumably dressed normally before that point and so it wouldn't really do to create the illusion that they were sleeping and kidnapped from their rooms by Beatrice.

3) There are never any scratch marks anywhere on the island other than Natsuhi's door, ever. It's just a very odd feature that appears twice with respect to Natsuhi's room and then never again anywhere else.
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Old 2012-06-05, 12:32   Link #29052
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I know... Ep2 is the most difficult.
One of the things was that Yasu wouldn't have seen the scorpian charm Jessica gave Natsuhi even back in EP1. My theory is that Natsuhi was targeted specially by the "man from nineteen years ago." But especially with EP2, it doesn't make sense for Natsuhi to have went into her room, and Yasu would have known not to waste his time on scratching up Natsuhi's door if she was going to be a first twilight victim anyway.

Unless... it's a roulette, and when the first twilight came, Natsuhi was just more convenient to kill because she was at the wrong place at the wrong time.
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Old 2012-06-05, 12:53   Link #29053
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Huh - I always figured EP2 as the simplest, and EP4 as the most difficult, myself. Not counting Chiru's wtf-ery, of course...

Regarding Natsuhi's door, I think we can take it two ways:
1. The dissonance between Natsuhi's changing death status between EP1 and EP2, against the bloody doors static status in the same Episodes, implies it was just a red herring that didn't give any real information, anyway.

2. Maybe Ryu WAS going somewhere with it, but promptly dropped it after EP2 because he was more concerned with people freaking out over Kanon's lightsaber. Like that other door in the boiler room that we seem to agree to kind of ... disregard.

Also, on UsagiTenpura's theory that the intended audience of the forgeries was ALWAYS Ange, well, it's interesting. I almost would prefer that sort of development, but it seems contrary to what we're told about Hachijou, the time the first forgeries were allegedly found, and Ange baaaaaarely even registering on Beatrice's radar. When she shows up, she's pretty much considered an obtuse intruder from the future, and the Ange we see for MOST of Umineko is just a piece, in some fashion or other.

... at the same time, I've always felt the lyrics of Discode were like a emo diary poem letter to future Ange, what with it ending EP4 and having lines like :

"If the one who rules over the future wishes for it", or

In the mansion that you must not tread upon
Because I’ll show you I love everything
I want you to ridicule and laugh at it, saying ‘it’s a set trap’

I even turn the memory of sorrow into the tool to blame the Endless Witch
And I’ll whisper just once


So, hey, who knows? Mind, I don't read Japanese, that was just a translation I found, so maybe it's iffy. Still.
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Old 2012-06-06, 03:51   Link #29054
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So this ends up being a double post...

Just wanted to note that I happened to read "And Then There Were None" today. It would be common knowledge that Umineko borrowed it's basic conceits and forms, but the number of parallels / things pulled from found, upon actually reading it, is staggering.

Mind officially blown at dead maid named Beatrice. XD
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Old 2012-06-06, 04:43   Link #29055
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
So this ends up being a double post...

Just wanted to note that I happened to read "And Then There Were None" today. It would be common knowledge that Umineko borrowed it's basic conceits and forms, but the number of parallels / things pulled from found, upon actually reading it, is staggering.

Mind officially blown at dead maid named Beatrice. XD
And Then There Were None should be required reading for any Umineko fan. It definitely added another dimension to the book. "Oh, hey! Ryukishi borrowed this bit from ATTWN! And this bit. And this murder here, I know how this one was done, because Ryukishi used it in Umineko. He must have nicked it from here." So familiar, and yet not.
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Old 2012-06-06, 09:09   Link #29056
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"When the seagulls cried, no one was left alive."
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Old 2012-06-06, 10:23   Link #29057
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
So this ends up being a double post...

Just wanted to note that I happened to read "And Then There Were None" today. It would be common knowledge that Umineko borrowed it's basic conceits and forms, but the number of parallels / things pulled from found, upon actually reading it, is staggering.

Mind officially blown at dead maid named Beatrice. XD
I remember I was looking over the book one day, and was surprised at just how much silly foreshadowing there is to the culprit.

Spoiler:
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Old 2012-06-06, 12:01   Link #29058
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I remember I was looking over the book one day, and was surprised at just how much silly foreshadowing there is to the culprit.

Spoiler:
LOL, so much I thought it was a red herring for most of the book... I was quite amazed at how only one of the characters suspected the real culprit...
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Old 2012-06-07, 03:07   Link #29059
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How to Lose at Umineko

I think I should need to make this post since I've been talking about how it's not useful to take people as delusional, since I say it causes you to never be able to discern the truth. But I never explained where these ideas come from.

This idea comes from the concepts in Decision Theory, specifically Choice Under Uncertainty. This is a kind of Game Theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decisio...er_uncertainty

People may know Pascal's Wager, which is a wager on the existence of God and your belief or disbelief in that. This matrix would be similar to that, but concerns Beatrice instead:

Code:
Beatrice is         Telling the Truth         Lying
You believe         You can understand        You cannot understand
You disbelieve      You cannot understand     You cannot understand
The columns denote Beatrice (or even Ryukishi's) decision, to tell the truth or lie. Basically, to tell a story where people can figure out the truth, or a story where no one will have a clue what you were trying to say. However, you cannot be certain of either, as we were not at the beginning of Umineko.

The only choice you can make is whether to believe or disbelieve. By believe, you believe that the truth is reachable. By disbelieve, you decide that the truth is unreachable. When you disbelieve, regardless of whether the other side tells the truth or not, you cannot reach the truth. The only winning scenario is to believe, and hope that the other side 'tells the truth.'


So what does this have to do with delusional? Basically, that decision matrix is applicable to Beatrice's state of mind as well:

Code:
Beatrice is                    Sane                  Delusional!
You decide she's Sane          You can understand    You cannot understand
You decide she's Delusional    No understanding      No understanding
If her mental state is uncertain, then taking the attitude that she is delusional, automatically eliminates any chance of understanding, on the off chance that she is sane.


The thing is this matrix is applicable to many, many things. If someone did something wrong to you, did he do it intentionally? Or was it unintentional? As long as there's not enough information to be certain one way or the other, deciding that the wrong was intentional cuts off all chance of hope of reconciliation.

This is true for Eva's guilt too! If her guilt is uncertain, do we assume she is guilty as Ange did? Ange cut off her chance to reconcile with Eva by working from the assumption that she was responsible. Although asking Ange not to automatically doubt Eva doesn't exactly mean to automatically believe Eva is innocent.


The true response to this matrix is to play the Doubting and Believing Game. You need to argue from both sides of doubt and belief to fully understand the situation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_E...Believing_Game

This extract goes into more detail: http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcon...xt=peter_elbow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Elbow
Often we cannot see what's good in someone's idea (or in our own!) till we work at believing it.
^^^Of course it's not talking about actually adopting someone's belief permanently; it means to view things from the other perspective first to see if there is any merit.


Without this kind of thinking, we can end up assuming Beatrice is telling us lies. Especially since there was an unreliable narrator, and a detective story where we are taught to doubt all scenes and all witnesses. If we applied this consistently over the entire Umineko and never 'played the believing game,' it would mean defeat in Umineko the game.

It is playing the believing game with Beatrice however, which meant entertaining the idea that she is saying things truthfully, as *she* sees it, which was the clue to figuring out Umineko.

When she says that she is a 'witch,' we have to see it from her POV. She really *does* believe she is a witch and behaves accordingly. Of course we don't *really* believe it, but it is her actions, dictated by her beliefs which we're trying to analyze. We've seen crime shows where it was necessary to 'think like the criminal' in order to catch them.


And if we did this we would've solved Umineko by EP2, like Tooya. 8) Maybe. I don't know for sure; I was too eager to get to all those awesome action/death scenes and just skimming past all the important parts. But I was knowing very well that I was skipping all the important parts...

Last edited by Kylon99; 2012-06-07 at 03:13. Reason: EDIT: Like Ryukishi, I never edit until it's too late!
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Old 2012-06-07, 03:24   Link #29060
Kylon99
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She was seeing things that did not exist. That's "delusional." Surely you didn't forget that part of Alliance?
I was talking about Yukari, rather than the Ange in Alliance. That's why I mentioned the 'real Ange.' Maybe I should have said 'Yukari,' but then I wonder if you missed my use of the word 'real.'

Basically that both Maria and Ange had hope in impossible things. Or actually extremely improbable things. And that simply hoping in very improbable things, despite everyone else telling you to give up, is not automatically a sign of delusion. Though I still can't place the different Ryukishi was trying to make between the two (if he was.)


The fictional Ange in EP4, of course, was portrayed by Tooya as rather... delusional. I've wondered at what kind of a person Tooya would be to do this; even though he may not have an emotional connection to Ange... you're still, playing with the characters of real people. Maybe Tooya's characterization isn't as tight as Ryukishi wanted, or should have made him...
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