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Old 2012-06-20, 23:18   Link #29221
Asuka0NK
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Well it is not like I am saying this theory is truth but everything fits together. There is no other theory I can think of that would explain everything. Give me a theory that would cause Yasu to commit suicide, Battler not coming back = No crime, and also a reason for the message bottles and I will accept your argument going against GCT. I am saying however I will not accept a theory involving the three prime suspects Eva, Yasu, or Battler. I will also give one piece of evidence that shows how obsessed George is with Shannon. He stated he was jealous of Battler when he was with Shannon. Now at this time Battler was 12 and Shannon was 10(13) and George was 17. Do you find a problem with this? George was so obsessed with her he was jealous of a 12 year-old and had the hots for a (to his knowledge) 10 year-old. This is the evidence I will use to prove George has a very creepy obsession with Shannon and I wouldn't put it past him to murder if she rejected him.
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Old 2012-06-20, 23:32   Link #29222
Kealym
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asuka0NK View Post
Well it is not like I am saying this theory is truth but everything fits together. There is no other theory I can think of that would explain everything. Give me a theory that would cause Yasu to commit suicide, Battler not coming back = No crime, and also a reason for the message bottles and I will accept your argument going against GCT. I am saying however I will not accept a theory involving the three prime suspects Eva, Yasu, or Battler.
1. We have no way of knowing if Yasu killed herself
2. Even if Battler didn't return, she planned to do SOMETHING that year
3. The "purpose" of the message bottles, in Prime, will probably shift depending on what one thinks actually happened at the conference. It's too difficult to consider them completely on their own.
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Old 2012-06-20, 23:33   Link #29223
Jan-Poo
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Fine I'll take your challenge!

First:

Quote:
Willard Wright: Don't forget the heart! George isn't the kind of person to lose control like that. He might get angry, but in all the tales it's a calm, clinical and focussed anger.

Dlanor: Knox's 8th! It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Are there any clues that suggest George would become a berserker if he became enraged?
The very fact that George has been shown being overly controlling over his emotion proves that he might explode in an uncontrolled anger!

First off, let's clarify one thing: George is a human, and as every human he can get angered. In fact we've seen that he's far from a robot.

Now you can compare keeping your emotion under control the same as preventing steam from gushing out from a kettle.
A normal pot with boiling water cannot explode no matter what, but a pressure cooker? Sure it can if something goes wrong!
And that's why the very fact of holding down primordial forces is the very thing that can make thing explode!

George has in himself the conditions for that to happen. The fact that it never happened before proves nothing, induction logic doesn't work, just because a pressure cooker never exploded it doesn't mean it will never explode.

Quote:
Figuring out how to kill everyone would take a lot of work for a long time. Long enough for George to calm down and come to his senses.
There is a history of "go postals" that protracted themselves for hours. Once something breaks in a person's mind it can't be easily recovered. Besides, even if George came to his senses after he killed five or six persons, what exactly he had to lose or recover by then? Nothing would save him from the death penalty anyway.

Quote:
Explaining the deaths of Gohda, Nanjo, and old lady Kumasawa with George culprit theory is just getting greedy! Those three don't interact with Eva or Battler much at all. Berserk George doesn't have any motive to want to kill them!
It is possible that Shannon told George all of her sad history before her tragic death.
- Nanjo and Kumasawa are guilty. They knew who Yasu was and yet they made her live that horrible life without ever saying a word, Yasu had to live in that orphanage and then as a lowly servant for years. There is a scene in EP7 where we see Yasu being extremely enraged against Nanjo and Genji.
- Gohda is guilty. It is known fact that Gohda acted like a stuck up smug towards Shannon and Kanon. That may not be a grave crime, but that's still someone who doesn't deserve much regards. He's in the wrong place at the wrong moment, and there's no real reason to show him mercy.

Quote:
Beelzebub: Beelzebub of gluttony, right here! It's too much! Killing harmless little Maria in a fit of rage is just too much! There's no way an adult like George would see helpless little Maria and still be angry enough at them to kill!
It is possible that Maria was killed out of a misguided mercy.
Usually her deaths are painless. Maybe the killer thought it was a lot better for her to die rather than live after the tragedy. Considering what Ange had to go through, you must recognize there is some truth in this logic.

Quote:
Asmodeus: Asmodeus of Lust, right here! George is mature enough to know that killing Shannon's friends is no way to win her love!
The theory assumes that George already lost any hope to be with Shannon (because she's dead!) Why would he bother about that at this point?
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Old 2012-06-20, 23:48   Link #29224
Asuka0NK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
1. We have no way of knowing if Yasu killed herself
2. Even if Battler didn't return, she planned to do SOMETHING that year
3. The "purpose" of the message bottles, in Prime, will probably shift depending on what one thinks actually happened at the conference. It's too difficult to consider them completely on their own.
1.Though we do not know if Yasu truly killed herself there is a very high chance that she did.
2. This "something" is never explored upon and in Ep 7 Yasu did say that the crimes wouldn't have happened if he didn't return that year so that "something" may just be Yasu finally choosing to live as Shannon
3. This is true.
What I don't understand is that is it that hard to believe even someone like George wouldn't go mad if driven to the brink. Shannon you could say was the last person in all of George's life that he genuinely loved. He loved Shannon more then anybody else in the world. He hated Battler more then anybody else in the world. The person most important to him left him for someone he hated more then anything. I think this is a suitable motive. Did anyone also notice in Ep 7 George was the only one who Will didn't use his ability on.
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Old 2012-06-21, 00:13   Link #29225
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Quote:
Beelzebub: Beelzebub of gluttony, right here! It's too much! Killing harmless little Maria in a fit of rage is just too much! There's no way an adult like George would see helpless little Maria and still be angry enough at them to kill!
George can kill children.
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Old 2012-06-21, 00:13   Link #29226
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Originally Posted by Asuka0NK View Post
1.Though we do not know if Yasu truly killed herself there is a very high chance that she did.
That's a strong claim. What's your basis for making it?
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Old 2012-06-21, 00:17   Link #29227
Asuka0NK
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
That's a strong claim. What's your basis for making it?
The ending of Ep 8 of course. We know that Battler did escape on a boat but we hear nothing else about it. Is it a possibility that was nothing more then a fantasy? yes. Is there a possibility that that was us being able to peek into RP? yes. So though it is a small basis it is a possibility that what we saw was what really happened after the events of Rokkenjima on October 6th.
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Old 2012-06-21, 00:30   Link #29228
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Sorry for the late post; been pretty busy.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
The question is though, what is the story that needs to be served?
I know you guys went off and talked about something else, but...

By that I mean, I was looking at the behind the scenes to the LoTR movies and how (supposedly) every cut or every addition made to each version of the films was decided (supposedly) on whether it would serve the story or not. When they said that, it seemed that they were talking about whether a scene would go off on a tangent or whether a scene would serve to tell you more about what's going on with the core story.

I think the technique was to ask yourself, does this scene tell us more about what's happening or the principle characters? Is it new information or redundant information? Does it talk about stuff that isn't central to the plot or characters? I think when you write and edit a written story, the process should be similar. (I think almost all of us agrees that Ryukishi could use an editor...)

But more on that below...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aethos View Post
But anyways that leads us back to the real issue just what is the answer we're supposed to find? This isn't about people being lazy and just wanting the answer. It's about people wanting the answer because Ryukishi didn't do enough to give us a reasonable satisfactory answer that we all could come too.
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
The question is, what is the truth that has to be found in Umineko and even more important what is the goal that Ryűkishi actually set.
He did not only make this a game, he made it a challenge.
I think all the quotes I found from EP1-2 form the whole story about Shannon and Beatrice that we were supposed to find. If we had concentrated on this, we would've found the culprit nearly right away and understood the reasons why. I think that's actually all he intended for us to find; the rest (like did Eva shoot anyone in Rokkenjima Prime) was not. (Although if we did pick up some stuff it was like a bonus; hello Author Theory! :3 )

But... at the same time...

I was thinking about this, the idea of 'serving the story.' If Umineko is your regular novel, movie, anime or manga, then yes, you would want to serve the story. But he did give a challenge and the challenge was more in the line of a detective novel.. or like a game. If Umineko is a game then he can't really serve the story; he has to hide the truth (in plain sight), misdirect us and make us think other things are happening.

I thought (and many others too, I believe) that it would be fun for EP3-6 or even 7 to continue to mess with our heads. But by EP8, he would return to serving the story again and point out the parts in EP1-2 (if that really was it) that we had missed. This would be almost like a detective novel-like solution; the pointing out of clues you missed from early on in the story. But it looks like he kept going with this idea of a 'game' where if you can't defeat the last boss (or even *know* you defeated it) you won't get the ending movie.

If you think of Umineko this way, as a game, then it makes sense. If you can't defeat Diablo (or get a bunch of your high level friends to come in and wipe the floor with him) then you won't get the closing cinematic. If you can't puzzle out the final Umineko truth (or read the message boards with all the theories), then you won't get to understand the story at all.

But the problem is Umineko also resembles a traditional story. And stories that are hard to understand are not liked very much. "Spoilers 'do not ruin stories,' study says." ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-14521627 ) The study couldn't explain why, but the guess is that the spoiler helps you to understand the story more. The study did show that people preferred the spoiled version more, though, which is already very telling.

Maybe this is why Ryukishi kept telling us in several interviews that we should go back with what we know from later episodes to unlock more clues.
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Old 2012-06-21, 02:56   Link #29229
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Originally Posted by Asuka0NK View Post
My theory about Rokkenjima Prime is that the culprit is actually George. If George is the culprit everything will fit together perfectly. Yasu's guilt and suicide, Why the crimes wouldn't have happened if Battler didn't return, and the message bottles.
Shannon was prepared to accept George's proposal and live her life with him. But on October 4th Battler came back and old feelings resurfaced in her mind. She had still loved Battler as much as she did back then. George made his proposal to Shannon and she declined it because she was still in love with Battler. We know that George would kill for Shannon and so he did. George tried to show Shannon how much he loved her and that he would throw everything away just to be with her so he murdered his family to tell her that he will do anything for her and that he loved Shannon much more then Battler ever will. Eva that same night solved the epitaph and discovered the gold. The next day the murders continued leaving only Shannon, Battler, and Eva behind. The three tried to escape George and activated the bomb. The three split ways and Battler and Shannon left on the boat that she had prepared earlier. Eva escaped to Kuwadorian. Shannon felt so much guilt for everything she had done since she thinks everything is her fault for not being able to decide who she loved and the punishment was everyone dying. She commited suicide by jumping off the boat with the gold to weigh herself down and then the whole Ep 8 ending. Eva survived in Kuwadorian and George died in the explosion. I forgot to mention the message bottles were written by Shannon on the boat before she killed herself so that she could protect George because she is the one who spurred on his Yandere rage and made herself appear to be the culprit so she could take all the blame onto herself. This is my truth and I believe it fits with everything. Eva wouldn't show the truth to anyone because she didn't want anyone to know her son was a psychopath. She raised Ange to be stronger and not get close to people so that she wouldn't fall in love and end of like George and killing over it. She didn't want Ange to know the truth because Ange would of course take it as Eva being an accomplice. I'm sure that you all will find several holes in it and say it is wrong which it probably is but I believe it makes everything make sense.
A few questions for this theory:

- Why was money sent to the relatives of those who had been on Rokkenjima? Assuming you take that part as canon.

- Why did George think that murdering everyone on the island would prove his love for Shannon?

- How did Shannon have enough time while on the boat before she killed herself to write two or more alternative accounts of what happened?

- If Battler hadn't returned, there still would have been a smaller incident. Under your theory, what would that incident have been?

Here's the relevant text from the game for the latter question.

Quote:
Clair: However, as long as the fact that Battler-san returns in 1986 remains unchanged, ......some sort of tragedy would certainly have occurred.
Will: That's right. If Battler had returned a year earlier or later, ...that incident might not have occurred.
Narrator: No, some small incident would probably have occurred. And it would surely have been a mysterious, impossible incident, which no one could understand. But even so, compared to the Rokkenjima serial murders, it would be a tiny thing...

Last edited by GoldenLand; 2012-06-21 at 03:19.
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Old 2012-06-21, 04:20   Link #29230
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
George has in himself the conditions for that to happen. The fact that it never happened before proves nothing, induction logic doesn't work, just because a pressure cooker never exploded it doesn't mean it will never explode.
Knox's 8th beats Devil's Proof.
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Old 2012-06-21, 04:54   Link #29231
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Knox's 8th beats Devil's Proof.
Knox 8 just say it must be hinted, not that it must be proven that it happened before.
Can you say that it was never hinted that George could get angry or that he could kill everyone?
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Old 2012-06-21, 05:36   Link #29232
GreyZone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenLand View Post
Quote:
Clair: However, as long as the fact that Battler-san returns in 1986 remains unchanged, ......some sort of tragedy would certainly have occurred.
Will: That's right. If Battler had returned a year earlier or later, ...that incident might not have occurred.
Narrator: No, some small incident would probably have occurred. And it would surely have been a mysterious, impossible incident, which no one could understand. But even so, compared to the Rokkenjima serial murders, it would be a tiny thing...
Oh... for example a harmless murder mystery game, where 2 servants suddenly disappear without trace and all participants claim to have seen a witch.

But that would only account for "1 year earlier". What kind of incident could happen "1 year later" though, when Yasu would have already gone with George?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Asuka0NK View Post
Also I think Ikuko=Yasu is one of the most ridiculous theories because it just doesn't add up. Ikuko has a backstory and Yasu just happened to wash-up on Niijima before Battler, purchase a house and a car and start a new life. That is ridiculous I think.
-She had 2 years, we know NOTHING of (aside from the 1985 conference and the dates with George). She could have easily created this identity during these years. I mean If Battler could just become Tohya like that, she could become Ikuko too.
-Backstory? Shannon, Kanon and Beatrice had a "backstory" too.
-Ikuko can mean "many children" or "19".
-The boat scene may not be real and even if it was: Explain how Battler 'teleported' from the ocean into the middle of the mountains (where he was supposedly hit by Ikuko's car) without magic.

Well we discussed this for many pages here already and I think we agreed to disagree, but it is not "ridiculous" as it can explain a lot.
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Old 2012-06-21, 06:38   Link #29233
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
-The boat scene may not be real and even if it was: Explain how Battler 'teleported' from the ocean into the middle of the mountains (where he was supposedly hit by Ikuko's car) without magic.
It wasn't the middle of the mountains, it is suggested that Hachijou lives in a city near the sea, probably Shimoda as it can be deducted from EP6 (assuming it's reliable).
That whole area isn't exactly plain and there are a lot of hills, but that's still near the sea so there's nothing strange there.
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Old 2012-06-21, 07:34   Link #29234
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Originally Posted by Asuka0NK View Post
Well it is not like I am saying this theory is truth but everything fits together. There is no other theory I can think of that would explain everything. Give me a theory that would cause Yasu to commit suicide, Battler not coming back = No crime, and also a reason for the message bottles and I will accept your argument going against GCT. I am saying however I will not accept a theory involving the three prime suspects Eva, Yasu, or Battler. I will also give one piece of evidence that shows how obsessed George is with Shannon. He stated he was jealous of Battler when he was with Shannon. Now at this time Battler was 12 and Shannon was 10(13) and George was 17. Do you find a problem with this? George was so obsessed with her he was jealous of a 12 year-old and had the hots for a (to his knowledge) 10 year-old. This is the evidence I will use to prove George has a very creepy obsession with Shannon and I wouldn't put it past him to murder if she rejected him.
The Episode Seven tea party presents the truth that Eva believed during the events of the Rokkenjima incident and recorded in her diary. However, Eva was mistaken about events that she did not witness or misinterpreted. The adults solved the riddle and went to the underground gold room as shown. An argument began and they started killing each-other as shown. Eva interpreted Kyrie and Rudolph shooting her and Hideyoshi as a murder for money, however it is more likely that they saw everyone who argued with Eva 'accidentally' getting shot and acted out of self defense. Rudolph's bullet killed Hideyoshi. However, Kyrie did not miss. Eva survived because one of the guns was loaded with blanks as part of Yasu's game.

Later, Eva wakes up and leaves the gold room. She encounters Rudolph and shoots him as shown and discovers George's corpse as shown. George's true last moments, however, are unknown. It is possible Rudolph and Kyrie decided to eliminate him as a threat. It is also possible that George panicked and attacked first, forcing Rudolph to kill in self defense again. It is also possible that Rudolph and George decided to settle things with some sort of honorable western-style duel and Rudolph simply won. No clues are presented to resolve that particular detail.

After that, Eva encounters Kyrie as shown. However, Eva misunderstood Kyrie completely. Kyrie reasoned out that her gun was full of blanks and there was no way she could beat Eva in this fight. She also realized it was too late to apologize and calm things down. So she deliberately goaded Eva and said horrible things about Ange in order to guarantee that no matter what happened in this fight, the survivor would have a motivation to take good care of Ange when they came back from the island.

Full of despair, Eva sets the bomb to bury the truth of this horrible night and retreats to Kuwadorian without confirming the deaths of everyone else. In fact, it is very likely they were still alive and most of them didn't realize how disastrously badly everything had gone.

Later, Battler and Yasu go outside and discover the horrifying collection of corpses, including Battler's parents. They set off after Eva intending to reason with her and end the madness. Because of this, they are outside the blast area when the bomb goes off. In a panic, they realize the bomb must have gone off because Eva set it and come to the mistaken conclusion of Eva-Culprit theory. Battler and Yasu decide to go in to hiding. Battler is terrified of the woman that killed most of his family and friends for many long years, until one day the two of them decide to confront Eva for the sake of Ange and realize just how much pain Eva has been living with since that day. After a good long cry, Eva entrusts her diary of that day to the two of them and resolves herself to do whatever it takes for Ange's sake, even if it means being hated as a terrible witch.
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Old 2012-06-21, 07:58   Link #29235
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There is no other theory I can think of that would explain everything. Give me a theory that would cause Yasu to commit suicide, Battler not coming back = No crime, and also a reason for the message bottles and I will accept your argument going against GCT. I am saying however I will not accept a theory involving the three prime suspects Eva, Yasu, or Battler.
That's a lot of completely arbitrary restrictions, isn't it? We have no idea if Yasu killed herself, and those three are perfectly valid suspects.
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Old 2012-06-21, 11:18   Link #29236
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Knox 8 just say it must be hinted, not that it must be proven that it happened before.
Can you say that it was never hinted that George could get angry or that he could kill everyone?
Oh please, "could get angry" is not a hint that he was emotionally on the verge of a murderous rampage.

And the only "hint" that George could kill everyone was his answer to a false dilemma. Can you provide a hint that that the dilemma actually wasn't false? Because that'd be interesting.

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Originally Posted by Golden Bug-Hunter View Post
[...]
The only major problem I have with this is that you seem to have forgotten about Kyrie shooting Rosa.
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Old 2012-06-21, 11:27   Link #29237
Asuka0NK
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Originally Posted by GoldenLand View Post
A few questions for this theory:

- Why was money sent to the relatives of those who had been on Rokkenjima? Assuming you take that part as canon.

- Why did George think that murdering everyone on the island would prove his love for Shannon?

- How did Shannon have enough time while on the boat before she killed herself to write two or more alternative accounts of what happened?

- If Battler hadn't returned, there still would have been a smaller incident. Under your theory, what would that incident have been?
Yasu sent money to them beforehand. Yasu didn't think Battler would ever return so she sent Rudolf the money. She then sent it to the others as a thanks for them always being there for her but she didn't know anyone's address and wanted to keep it a surprise for them.

Yes I already said I think this is highly improbable but not impossible.

This smaller incident would be Kanon just mysteriously disappearing and a small uproar over it. His disappearance would slowly be forgotten and he would never be found leaving Jessica very sad but she would get over it so thus it is a tiny thing that no one could explain.

Also on the boat scene. We do know Battler did escape on a boat but we have no idea if Yasu was on the boat thus it can be left to interpretation.
Ikuko=Yasu not existing is my own personal belief. It is too much of a coincidence for Yasu to survive and just happen to find Battler on the road. It also isn't that hard for Battler to become Tohya he didn't just say hey my name is Tohya. He suffered amnesia and became Tohya.

Finally I don't accept a Yasu, Eva, or Battler theory because it is too obvious. I like to believe that Yasu wrote the stories out of guilt for causing the events to play out not for commiting the murders. Eva would never kill her own family no matter what happens. I think Eva is smart enough to know she will never get away with murder and Battler Culprit Theory is just too obvious to be true I mean in OMK B.Battler's alternate outfit is Tohya.
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Old 2012-06-21, 11:49   Link #29238
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Originally Posted by Asuka0NK View Post
Yasu sent money to them beforehand. Yasu didn't think Battler would ever return so she sent Rudolf the money. She then sent it to the others as a thanks for them always being there for her but she didn't know anyone's address and wanted to keep it a surprise for them.
Looking through the relevant section of ep 4 again, the letters puzzle me even more in regard to my own ideas of what may have happened.

You see, checking ep 4, I see that in each case with the letters, they were sent to the relevant person (such as Nanjo) but to a made-up address. The intention was clearly to have the letters being returned to the sender.

However, the sender in each case was falsely identified as a relative of the person who had been on Rokkenjima. For Nanjo, it was Nanjo's son. For Rudolf, it was Ange. This suggests rather strongly that Yasu was aware in advance of being cut off by the typhoon that people might be killed en masse on that island. And probably also that Ange wasn't going to be going there because of being ill. I wonder if there is something which can explain that in a way that makes it seem she wasn't aware of the danger? (Anybody got an idea? Although I suppose we could try to say "that never really happened in Rokkenjima Prime")

And if Yasu wanted to find out the addresses of the family and servants, I'm sure it would have been easy for her to do so without letting them know that she wants to send them something. The addresses are probably listed somewhere the servants can get to them. Certainly, Genji would know them, and Genji would give them to Yasu if she asked.
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Old 2012-06-21, 13:02   Link #29239
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Originally Posted by GoldenLand View Post
However, the sender in each case was falsely identified as a relative of the person who had been on Rokkenjima. For Nanjo, it was Nanjo's son. For Rudolf, it was Ange.
IIRC it was the Rokkenjima victims themselves who were the supposed senders, not their relatives.
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Old 2012-06-21, 13:12   Link #29240
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Can you provide a hint that that the dilemma actually wasn't false? Because that'd be interesting..
I don't see why fantasy scenes can't be used as hints toward the personality of a character. I'm pretty sure Ryukishi has said they're supposed to be used as hints anyway instead of just being cast aside.
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