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Old 2012-07-18, 06:29   Link #29701
unsuspectingvisitor
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I can't argue with those red truth it's rock solid. I'll give up arguing for now.

There's still another riddle that needed to be solve other than the letter and the knock though. It's during the time when Natsuhi was talking with the man from 19 years ago on the phone that night. Who was talking to her anyway? I thought it was Shkanon at first but it's seems unlikely that it's him because he was stuck on the dining hall until 1:00. The call supposed to happened after 12:00 But at that time Shkanon was inside th dining hall. I admit I don't get it all so I want to know what you guys think.
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Old 2012-07-18, 07:39   Link #29702
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Considering that everyone in the dining hall seems to be in on the conspiracy to frame Natsuhi, there's no problem with them letting Shkanon leave for the phone call and then lying about them staying in the room the whole time.
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Old 2012-07-18, 08:49   Link #29703
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
The case of the cow you mentioned is tricky because you already know by previous knowledge that a cow must have a color. However suppose you are an artificial intelligence with absolutely no knowledge of the concept of cows. Could you logically make that deduction? I think not.

At any rate if we do not possess the information of whether the cow exists or not then assuming that it must have a color is wrong. Which by extension means that in front of the sentence the cow isn't brown we cannot deduce that a cow that might or might not exist must have a color other than brown.
You're being pedantic, but technically correct. The proper negation is probably along the lines of "the cow is a color other than brown or no color." The point is, the negation of a statement always has a truth value opposite the truth value of the original statement. So if "the cow is brown" is false, then "the cow is some color other than brown or colorless" must be true.

The problem with talking about the First Man on Mars is that saying it was a man from China is equally as incorrect as saying it wasn't a man from China, which at least appears to violate the notion that the negation of a statement has the opposite truth value. You could address this in several ways, either by declaring all such statements true but meaningless, declaring them all false, or just saying you can't make logical statements about something with undefined properties. An AI would probably choose the lattermost, determining that it cannot make a judgment about an entity which has not been initialized and for which it has no data. Basically it would error out, which is probably the best way to think about it.
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Old 2012-07-18, 09:29   Link #29704
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I try to show another example: Imagine the following in EP3 being said by Beatrice:

"Neither I nor my teacher have used Jetpacks or any other device that lets us take off into the air for an aerial battle! And no swords, spears, bows, arrows, cannons and gunpower created out of any kind of wood, stone, metal or platic were used. Also No 'towers' were prebuild into the garden. This refers to any wooden, stone, metal, plastic, mechanic, or electric towers. It was created out of a magical material after all ♥ ♥ ♥. Try to explain our battle now with human tricks, Batora (ahaha.wav)"

This also works! See how easy it is?
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Old 2012-07-18, 11:11   Link #29705
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Sometimes I wonder if it's just because Erika couldn't go any deeper, by the limits of her very nature. Basically, she's got a brain for "Mystery", but ShKanon isn't really Mystery so she can't comprehend it.
I always thought that Lambda blatantly "cheated" by giving Kanon a body in EP5, and Battler trolled Erika in EP6, using her false impression of the matter by switching back to regular Shkanon. This works for me doubly because Erika is aware of EP1-4 too, and Shkanon is never a necessary element in solving those.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Although in this case Beato's not the GM.
True. Maybe, like the magic circles in the cousins room, Lambda was taking something typically attributed to Beato, and ramped it up to 11, into absurdity? I try not to take the knock/letter riddle too seriously, because similar to the cheese riddle and the coin/cup riddle, I assume Ryu was illustrating a point about how our logic works with red statements. Clock tampering would be cooler.

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Originally Posted by Drifloon View Post
Considering that everyone in the dining hall seems to be in on the conspiracy to frame Natsuhi, there's no problem with them letting Shkanon leave for the phone call and then lying about them staying in the room the whole time.
Yeah pretty much. Though this has led to the (amusing?) mental image of the other siblings attempting to subdue Krauss to the Benny Hill theme a bit later.
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Old 2012-07-18, 14:28   Link #29706
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Also, while "everyone lied" isn't really the most ... elegant of solutions, it's hard to deny that it's sort of Beato's M.O. There's precedence, at least for that. I agree that it's worth questioning why they would've lied about it ... but I'd also say it's worth noting that nobody ever brings it up again ever. XD
I started thinking about this again, because it really bothered me how this (through Forgery No.XXX explained away) plotline is still of such importance to the discussion and why it bothers me so much that people can't let it go.
I found at least one aspect and that is, that almost nobody here seems to consider other reasons why this farce was possible to be created on the gameboard of EP5 beyond "trolling Erika". It was EP5 which highlighted how a piece can only act in accordance to its own physical and mental capabilities, so what reasons could be behind the pieces in the dining room acting out this scene?

1) We know from EP1-4 that the letter is created by Beatrice (which is to a 99% chance Yasu) and that it is supposed to be handed over in the rosegarden, but everything seems to be alright (according to Forgery No.XXX and in parts EP2) as long as it reaches the family members before or during the family conference.
2) Battler in this case has found the gold and should therefore have fulfilled the demands for the game to end.
3) The threat of the bomb still exists which is proven by the explosion happening in this Kakera as well.
4) We know that the ring of the family head is in Yasu's possession
4a) In EP3 we saw that when "Beatrice" hands over the ring of the family head, she also passes the title, obligations and powers of Beatrice over to the person who received it.
4b) Battler receives the ring of the family head during the knock and letter incident.

So what they are actually covering with the often discussed veil is not only any knock that might or might not have occurred, but the identity of the person who handed the ring over to them in dining hall.
Had they actually confessed to the fact that it was Kanon or Shannon who delivered the letters, it would have been quite obvious that their and ONLY their story is in danger of being a lie (this being the story that Black Battler dictates to Kanon in Forgery No.XXX "Go to the parents and tell them there was a knock on the servants room's door."). But by agreeing on the fact that this letter appeared not only without anybodies action in front of the dining hall, but also accompanied by a knock that nobody could have made, they cast the veil of uncertainty over the true source of the events.
This is further important because the possessor of the ring also is destined to have knowledge about Kinz˘'s life and death status, about his possible demise and is (in the eyes of an outside observer) quite possibly connected to a crime or even several crimes.

What very probably many small parties did not notice is, that while their individual actions did provide alibis for certain people or excluded people from the range of suspects, all combined created an impossible scenario.
We only know of all combined effects because of our meta view and because of our access to the red truth, something that the pieces on the board do not have access to.

So we can probably assume that there was a party intending to confine Natsuhi to a single spot, but maybe also a party who wanted to scare her into confessing to Kinz˘'s death (who else could have placed the ring that belonged to Kinz˘ in the hall, according to the knowledge of the people who were in the dining hall the whole time) by framing her as the only possible culprit for murder.
Only for the second reason's party is there an actual need to exclude any other potential intruders onto that scene. So it is not unlikely that this what Eva did with Erika's help when she sealed the servant's room with Genji inside and counting on the fact that nobody could enter the mansion from that point on due to Erika's help.
But that leaves another party, which confined Natsuhi to a single location, but made it for us (the outside observer) impossible for her to be the culprit. That party was basically just two people, Genji who informed her of the call from the mysterious man in the first place and the caller himself. If we assume that this caller is Yasu (Shkannon) he should have had ample time during the planing of the Natsuhi-framing party in the dining hall, to place this call.
The two parties only had to work in direct connection of each others actions during the murder of Hideyoshi, when Natsuhi was supposed to be confined to a crime scene, as the events so far did not appear to have the assumed impact to break her.

We know that the parents want to get the truth about Kinz˘ out of Natsuhi and Krauss.
We know from EP1 that Yasu has the potential capability to hurt Natsuhi (emotionally and physically).

Proceeding from this point it is actually not unlikely to assume that the "breaking of Natsuhi" lead to an actual murder or a chain of terrible incidents in which the people who played dead actually died (see EP6) and so we get a reason to why the island should be blown up in the end, even though the gold was found.

Just a proposition of course.
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Old 2012-07-18, 16:13   Link #29707
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
I always thought that Lambda blatantly "cheated" by giving Kanon a body in EP5, and Battler trolled Erika in EP6, using her false impression of the matter by switching back to regular Shkanon. This works for me doubly because Erika is aware of EP1-4 too, and Shkanon is never a necessary element in solving those.
Lambdadelta gave Kanon a body? http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...ostcount=29698 Maybe *you* gave Kanon a body in EP5
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Old 2012-07-18, 16:51   Link #29708
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I finally actually reached something. Yasu is NOT the man from 19 years ago that is heard in Ep 5 (Yasu is still the baby who fell off the cliff though). The real man from 19 years ago is GEORGE!!! Okay not really but it would sorta make sense with everything he does. Getting revenge for Shannon also since Natsuhi tells Shannon her favorite season is fall and she may have told George this. Anyway my reasons for thinking that Shannon isn't the man is because he is far far too cruel to Natsuhi. Yasu wouldn't torture Natsuhi like that no matter what. Whenever Natsuhi is a victim to Yasu she always dies on the the First Twilight (Natsuhi was supposed to die on the first Twilight in ep 1 but she had a scorpion pendent.) My second piece of evidence is that Natsuhi's family doesn't die until she is dead. Krauss and Natsuhi were supposed to die together in Ep 1 and Jessica isn't killed in this arc. In ep 2 Krauss and Natushi die together and Jessica dies later. Ep 3 doesn't count. Ep 4 Natsuhi dies and Jessica/Krauss die later. Only Ep 5 breaks this with killing Krauss before Natsuhi. So I don't believe that Yasu is the caller it is someone close to Yasu that cares for her enough to actually do this and as we all know.
Battler isn't the culprit and I think Natsuhi would've recognized Jessica's voice. So this only leaves George.
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Old 2012-07-18, 17:08   Link #29709
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It's interesting that you brought up the scorpian charm in EP1. Did you know those scratch marks were found on her door in other Episodes too? What makes you so sure that Natsuhi being dead = her family being dead? And then looking for evidence, you skip a chapter saying it doesn't count, even though you can still replace EVA with Yasutrice.

Yasu's feelings towards the cousins may have been the reason why the children survive in EP1, which has nothing to do with Natsuhi. We may even suspect that Natsuhi of EP1 was going through similar things like Natsuhi of EP5, like the letter in EP1's ninth twilight.

It's an interesting theory though, because you imply that George knows of Shannon's true identity and issues, and still feels like he has to help her somehow. But George seems even less like the kind of person who would harass someone the way he did. He'd be willing to stand up for Shannon and tell her off, but the MF19YO goes way above and beyond that.
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Old 2012-07-18, 17:22   Link #29710
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Yeah I know the whole George thing was mainly just a BLAME IT ON GEORGE joke. Also the reason I don't count Ep 3 is because I don't believe Yasu is the culprit of Ep 3 I believe it is Eva so thus of course the rules wouldn't apply still.
Also as I recall I guess I have a bad memory the scratch were only in Ep 1 and none of the others. I know that other paintings appeared on doors but never bloody scratch marks. Also the Natsuhi being dead = her family being dead is as I explained. Also I don't think Yasu's feelings towards the cousins work because the cousins don't always survive till the end.

I thought the final letter just had to do with Yasu telling Natsuhi to come and meet the child she killed.
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Old 2012-07-18, 17:31   Link #29711
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Originally Posted by RandomAvatarFan View Post
Now that I'm thinking about Reader Theory, I remember a lot of people complaining about Kanon being in the room once Erika gathered everyone together.... but it can be explained using Reader Theory. The Reader reads "everyone was gathered" and imagines Shannon standing on one side of the room and Kanon on the other. What we were seeing was the Reader's infuence. It still violates a more pure form of Knox's 8th though =/
Yes, I proposed this a while ago and there was a big debate about it. How does it violate Knox's 8th, though?
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Old 2012-07-18, 20:34   Link #29712
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Knox's 8th

The detective must not light on any clues are not instantly produced for the inspection of the reader. Any writer can make a mystery by telling us that at this point the great Picklock Holes suddenly bent down and picked up from the ground an object which he refused to let his friend see. He whispers 'Ha!' and his face grows grave - all that is illegitimate mystery - making. The skill of the detective author consists in being able to produce his clues and flourish them defiantly in our faces: 'There!' he says, 'what do you make of that?' and we make nothing.
The only way to infer this 'Reader Influence' is long past EP5's conclusion, making it a violation of Knox's 8th as originally defined.
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Old 2012-07-18, 23:42   Link #29713
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
The only way to infer this 'Reader Influence' is long past EP5's conclusion, making it a violation of Knox's 8th as originally defined.
But doesn't Umineko rather function the other way around? The detective is limited in his possibilities to produce a solution believable to us, because we have knowledge beyond that of the detective.
Knox's 8th in Umineko's context rather becomes a chain to the detective instead of us. That is shown quite clearly in the solution of Kinz˘'s escape from the study. Any of the Eiserne Jungfrau could have used "Kinz˘ is dead at the start of every game!", but at this point in EP5's story there is no proof, no evidence and therefor no solution. Any solution by the gameboard-detective can only be done in coherence with what he or she has gathered within the plot and in gameboard Erika's plot during EP5 she misses crucial events that we, the reader, do witness.

In that context I wonder about one thing concerning the aspect of "Reader Influence": Did Erika ever address both Kanon and Shannon seperate from another in the same scene? As in did GAMEBOARD Erika ever actually say anything along the lines of "first I ask you, Kanon, and then I ask you, Shannon" during EP5 or especially 6?
The important thing I think is the differentiate gameboard Erika's knowledge from meta-Erika's knowledge and that is something that proves very difficult during EP6, because she herself does not stay true to those rules.
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Old 2012-07-19, 01:06   Link #29714
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In that context I wonder about one thing concerning the aspect of "Reader Influence": Did Erika ever address both Kanon and Shannon seperate from another in the same scene?
No. Although I wouldn't claim that it's unnatural for her to not have done so.

In EP5 the 3 of them appear together frequently, although Erika never addresses both Kanon and Shannon by name at the same time. She will occasionally address or refer to one or the other by name with more or less the kind of frequency one would expect if they were normal people. There is also a point where Erika seems to look at Kanon and Shannon both at the same time and command something like "Close the door, will you?", which they both do (it's a double door, I guess).

In EP6 it's always Shannon and Erika or it's Shannon and Kanon, never all 3 or even just Erika and Kanon (in other words Kanon and Erika never appear together at all). However, Piece-Erika does mention Kanon while talking with other pieces.
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Old 2012-07-19, 01:58   Link #29715
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Had they actually confessed to the fact that it was Kanon or Shannon who delivered the letters, it would have been quite obvious that their and ONLY their story is in danger of being a lie
I feel like you are saying something really interesting in this paragraph, and I just can't quite understand what you mean
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Old 2012-07-19, 05:07   Link #29716
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I feel like you are saying something really interesting in this paragraph, and I just can't quite understand what you mean
Somebody must have delivered the letter to somebody for it to appear in the dining room so that Battler would receive the ring of headship and further instructions about his role as the successor. Whoever delivers that letter is bound or at least highly likely to have been in close contact with the former holder of the ring, if not even the former holder of the ring itself.
Because at this point it is still upheld on the island that "Ushiromiya Kinz˘ has the ring of headship and would never pass it to anybody until his death", it also means that whoever possesses the ring stands in direct context with "whatever happened to Kinz˘".
Natsuhi and Krauss are probably aware of the fact that the ring of headship is missing, but either Genji told them he put it in a secure place or they are just not able to question it's dissappearance because it would immediatly blow the cover of the Kinz˘ situation.

Now to the problem of Shannon or Kanon delivering the letter.
Remember that, them delivering the letter also entails that they are in (at least temporary) possession of the ring of headship, which raises the question why they would possess such item. Why, if they have no right to possess it, would Genji, Natsuhi or Krauss place an item of high importance to Kinz˘ in the hands of a klutzy girl and/or a rebellious boy?
But if the actual goal was to make Natsuhi admit to Kinz˘'s death, then she had to be put in the situation of being the only one capable of placing the letter.

The plan is basically ingenious, because Natsuhi won't say what happened during the time where she would need said alibi concerning the whole affair. We (the reader) know that she is on the 2nd floor and after that in her room, confined there by the call from the man from 19 years ago, but if there is nobody to observe that truth or testify for her "it stays in eternal process".

Further, EP5 is actually the first game where all parties present in the mansion when the letter appears can be accounted for from their arrival on the island. This means that by extension whoever delivers the letter on this night, in EP5, within the mansion is the person who already possessed the letter and therefore the ring from the beginning. And if we combine all knowledge about what possessing the ring entails then Shannon or Kanon delivering the letter on this night would have only framed them as the only possible core culprit.
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Old 2012-07-19, 09:27   Link #29717
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There's a couple funny things about it, though.

First, the first thing that happens after Battler puts on the ring is that Genji and Krauss enter the dining hall and Genji instantly notices that Battler has Kinzo's ring on his finger, expressing surprise. Then it takes a while for Krauss to even realize that Genji and the others are talking about the ring on Battler's finger and even then it takes him a while to realize that it's the headship ring.

The other funny thing is that Battler having the ring is not mentioned outside of that scene. For all we know Battler never even had it.
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Old 2012-07-19, 10:21   Link #29718
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I always wondered what would happen if Natsuhi just... told everybody someone was trying to blackmail her. She doesn't have to say why, after all; the onus would then be on everybody else to stake a claim as to why someone would be trying to do that to her and she happens to have an incredibly convenient alternative motive to which she can confess (related to the baby and thus not anything to do with present-day Kinzo specifically).

Plus then if someone called to tell her to go to a specific bedroom she could just tell everybody that someone called and told her to do that. It'd completely screw everything up.

Of course nobody would do this because it's a mystery and "no one would believe me," but seriously, they don't even have to believe you to mess everything up. Hideyoshi's "death" only works because Natsuhi was in there. If she tells everybody not to go to that bedroom and then doesn't, especially if they start keeping watch over her, she can't be responsible for it and it just wouldn't happen.

I'm honestly more amused with the way nobody seems to have any problem believing Natsuhi was physically capable of the supposed First Twilight murders. It seems really hard to kill a half-dozen people all in a single room, even if they're asleep. People tend not to be asleep very long if you start trying to kill them with a knife. Then again, Natsuhi just believes the murders happened too and doesn't really question it, so I'm going to guess it's a genre thing.
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Old 2012-07-19, 10:24   Link #29719
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
There's a couple funny things about it, though.

First, the first thing that happens after Battler puts on the ring is that Genji and Krauss enter the dining hall and Genji instantly notices that Battler has Kinzo's ring on his finger, expressing surprise. Then it takes a while for Krauss to even realize that Genji and the others are talking about the ring on Battler's finger and even then it takes him a while to realize that it's the headship ring.

The other funny thing is that Battler having the ring is not mentioned outside of that scene. For all we know Battler never even had it.
And we actually don't know if Genji and Krauss even entered in the room and things went like that. It could also be a lie and it's a convenient one.

Eva: Battler had the ring of the head! Therefore now he's the head.
Natsuhi: It's a fake!
Eva: It's not! Genji recognized it!
Erika: Well, where's Genji?
Kumasawa: Me and Kanon tried to call him but he appears to be... hum... dead...
Eva: Natsuhi, you killed Genji so he couldn't testify the ring is true!

To be honest Erika acknowledged that Battler had the ring

Quote:
".........Interesting. I see, you are the Ushiromiya family head, the one who bears the ring of the head. That should more than qualify you to stand in for Kinzo-san. .........Why don't you let us have a look at your theory?!!"
Though we can't know if it's MetaErika or PieceErika the one who's talking as the scene switch continuously between the two.

And Natsuhi agreed that Battler got the ring in an internal monologue...

Quote:
It's been completely overshadowed by the recent uproar, ......but last night, Battler-kun found the hidden gold and even gained the head's ring from that mysterious envelope.
Though again the monologue can be false I doubt so.
It's more likely that Battler had the ring and explained his possession with the mysterious letter.

As for me the reason for the mysterious letter is merely a weak attempt to force Natsuhi/Krauss to admit Kinzo is dead.
Let's face it, I don't think anyone would believe the letter was sent by Beatrice.
The ring is supposed to be in Kinzo's possession so either Kinzo delivered it, handed it to someone so it can be delivered or had it stolen.

As Kinzo is dead Natsuhi/Krauss knows that the first 2 options aren't the truth... but to prove that the ring was stolen she/he needs Kinzo to testify he hadn't handed it to anyone. And since Kinzo is dead he can't do this.

So if Natsuhi/Krauss wants to question how Battler got the ring she/he has to admit Kinzo couldn't hand it to anyone because he's dead.

So they either aknowledge that 'Kinzo' handed the ring to Battler or, to prove he had gotten it by stealing it, they've to reveal Kinzo is dead.
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Old 2012-07-19, 10:27   Link #29720
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
There's a couple funny things about it, though.

First, the first thing that happens after Battler puts on the ring is that Genji and Krauss enter the dining hall and Genji instantly notices that Battler has Kinzo's ring on his finger, expressing surprise. Then it takes a while for Krauss to even realize that Genji and the others are talking about the ring on Battler's finger and even then it takes him a while to realize that it's the headship ring.

The other funny thing is that Battler having the ring is not mentioned outside of that scene. For all we know Battler never even had it.
I think it is unnecessary to doubt the existence of the ring. We know that it exists through Ange's plot in EP3's and 4's 1998 and through EP3 and 5 we know that it is passed on by Beatrice to the person who solves the epitaph.
Also, EP5's manga version clearly depicts Battler as wearing the ring even in the scenes the next day. It is pretty prominently shown in various illustrations and sequences and considering Ryűkishi's fondness of the manga I think we can use it as a source for additional information.
For all we know, Battler received the ring of headship in an envelope together with a letter from Beatrice who introduced herself yet also simultaneously gave up all her rights towards any of the gold.

Concerning Genji's surprise, you can read it in two ways.
1) He was genuinely surprised that the true heir gave up the ring and handed it to somebody else.
2) He was simply pointing out the ring to draw Krauss' attention to it, as he was already aware of the fact that the ring would be handed over to the person who solved the epitaph.

I think it is also important to look at the last gameboard-Beato scene for this, which is mentioned as taking place some time before the last scene we witnessed (Natsuhi being intimidated by the man from 19 years ago).
We see her in the study, together with Ronove, Virgilia and the illusion of family-head Kinz˘. She shows surprise over the fact that Battler of all people solved the epitaph and Virgilia asks her if she really plans to stop her ceremony now and pass everything on to Battler.

If we toss away the magical implications of this scene, we can assume that Yasu had problems with actually fulfilling that condition, but why? Not only because it meant the end of her game, but by extension because she had to reveal herself to Battler and therefor would never know what his honest intentions would have been.
So what is the most logical (by that I mean Yasu-logic) thing to do? Of course making it appear like the witch did it, making her own letter appear out of thin air or at least not from her own hand. This of course plays closely into the hands of the adults in the dining room, because it incriminates the Krauss/Natsuhi party as they are outside the room when the letter appeared and are in charge of Kinz˘ and by extension his ring.
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