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Old 2012-10-20, 22:27   Link #30941
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Actually the problem isn't that Battler got the right answer, the problem is the author of the book made a mistake.
The number he wanted the readers to reach was 3. That was the correct answer to his puzzle but he explained his puzzle poorly giving space to an alternative solution.
I think I see this one a bit differently. The author did put a picture of his cheese (?) in the book, and though it didn't explicitly say the cheese had to look like the picture, you could probably argue either way.

Maybe we can look at it this way though: the circumstances in which the puzzle is told dictate what the puzzle is, and what the answer actually is. Of course, this fits perfectly with Beatrice, since all her puzzles/pranks are "told" in real life, and have to be changed to match whatever things are beyond her control. If something gets in the way of her original answer, she has to plan out a new one or give up.

If we want to find out whether Battler's answer was "better" or not, then we should try looking at the author ourselves. In this particular example, the author's "heart" is probably "I want to entertain some kids and make them think, to help them grow", which means that finding a more detailed and original answer than the author intended should be mission accomplished, assuming the author isn't an asshole. Both Erika and Battler also found the first answer, so they're doing nothing except getting more use out of the book than was originally intended.

It's the same thing in Beatrice's game. If you could find a better answer than the one she thought of, that would basically mean that you've spent a lot of time studying her world and understanding it on a fundamental level. The whole point of Beatrice writing these message bottles was to share her world with other people, so you think she'd be thrilled about something like this. Though of course, not as thrilled as she'd be if Battler solved it.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
The problem is that on the gameboard for Ep 1-5 is clearly Yasu.
Can we say that EP5 was obviously Yasu?

So far, her MO has always been to do something that looks impossible, to make it look like she can win without even trying, but to prevent suspicion from falling on any innocent person. Yet unless Natsuhi is hallucinating or telling an extremely self-destructive lie, that phone person is trying to frame her for the crime in EP5. Of course, it's possible that some other person was trying to frame Yasu framing Natsuhi, but the only confirmed death in that episode (before the game end time) is Krauss, and he's killed immediately after one of those threatening phone calls to Natsuhi. So it looks as though the killer isn't Yasu.
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Old 2012-10-20, 23:01   Link #30942
Wanderer
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
The message in the bottle might simply say that 'due to the bad weather the boat could not came' and focus on other details.
That's a big "might". Ange explicitly inner-narrated that the bottle stories had them "pinned down by a typhoon" and "provided a complete account of those two days". Also, the entire narrative of the first day is built around events affected by the timing of the typhoon. I mean, I'm hardly opposed to the notion that the bottle stories and the stories we read are different in some ways, but seriously, how bare-boned do you think the bottle-story actually was? Was it not even mentioned when it was that Maria revealed Beatrice's letter (during dinner) and how it was she supposedly got it (from a mysterious "Beatrice" who had come to give her an umbrella). It's the single most important plot point of the first day.

Furthermore, even if I granted that all it said was something like "there was a typhoon that kept Kuwabata from picking them up" (which I don't, at all), it's still hard to swallow. Like, if we supposed an average of 3 typhoons hitting per month during that time of year (I'm actually giving a very generous estimate here), then the chance of a typhoon hitting on a given day is still only about 10%. By the way, this is reasoning just based off the top of my head.

So, I did some basic research:

Average number that hit somewhere in the Japanese mainland per year? A little less than 3. Most, but not all, happen in September and October.

And just a fun fact: The number of typhoons that hit Japan in 1986 in real life is zero.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
We know Yasu didn't write all of a whim but because she liked mysteries and wanted someone to solve the ones she wrote.
Also if I write a mystery tale in which my family get mysteriously slaughtered because I like to write mysteries and in writing 101 is written that for amateur is best start writing what they know best, this won't insure me my family will never be slaughtered, not even in the real world.
That's pretty creepy in of itself, but you did way more than that. You also wrote the day they'd die (and if you actually believe in the bomb device, you even wrote the minute they'd die). You also predicted who would be present that day and who wouldn't. And you also predicted the weather on that day. Then you, for some reason, wrote a second very similar story about that same day. And then you put them into message bottles which you threw into the sea within days before it actually happened.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
It would make it a very odd coincidence, a suspicious coincidence even, but let's face it, coincidences happens, even way more unbelievable ones.
Not that I think such a dumb coincidence happened in the first place, but even if it did, why would the police just go and assume it was a coincidence? You even call it a "suspicious" coincidence yourself.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Personally I find much more absurd the tale we get for Kinzo gaining the gold
Why? I mean, sure it's pretty extraordinary, but I don't see how it's entirely implausible.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Add to this that this sort of coincidence happened in more than 1 mystery tale so, even if in real life it's, to use Kinzo's words, more similar to a miracle than anything else, in the mystery books world, it has a lot more chances of happening.
Right, but we're not talking about the mystery books world. We're talking about Prime.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
If they investigated it, it never came up it belonged to Shannon/Kanon. We're told that more or less all the siblings got suspected but there's no servant culprit theory.
The whole point I'm trying to make is that it's weird to think the police wouldn't investigate it. So either the police did, and came up with nothing, or it's a complete hoax from the start. But you seem to be suggesting that it's not a hoax (and, from what we're told, the police thought it wasn't), yet the police still didn't investigate it for some inexplicable reason, simply based on the fact that it was not explicitly stated that they did investigate it.

Am I correct in my assessment of what you're saying?

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Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard View Post
Whoops, sorry, my bad then, I thought you were being sarcastic.

Hmm... I don't remember his EP5 first twilight (I love myself too much to put it through all NINE FREAKIN' HOURS of that guy), care to give me the brief version?
Second video, at 1:48:00. It's 7 minutes long.

He tries to explain the 5th game as an actual murder mystery using his usual three, even minus Rosa since the epitaph was solved. So with just George and Nanjo.

Basically, George knocks out everyone in the cousins' room and fakes their death, as well as his own, with makeup and fake death drugs (including the wounds on their necks). And it fools everyone: Battler, Rudolf, Kyrie, Eva, and Hideyoshi. Then he wakes up (before the others, I guess) and takes everyone somewhere else and confines or kills them. Then he goes to get Genji, who he had also knocked out eariler and made-up, and does the same with him.

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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
In other news, reeeally wish Knownomore would invest the time in a truncated transcript. He doesn't even really have to solve EP5, does he? There isn't much of a mystery to account for, and he probably uses those parlor scenes as a stake against Shkanon, wham bam.
No, but he thinks he does. He even tries to explain EP6. It's quite a train-wreck. I criticize him a lot, but at least he seems to play by his own rules... even if they're weird.

And yes, he loves those parlor scenes for anti-ShKanon.

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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
A favourite theory of mine is that Ep 7 represents Battler who solved the game and learnt the truth from Yasu (there are facts that it would be difficult to guess without Yasu confessing them).

As I'm among the Ikuko=Yasu believers I like for it to also represent the fact that it was Toya to be more exact who solved again the game which is why in the whole Umineko we have Battler who remembered and solved it and then Will, an outsider, who solved it (Toya doesn't think to himself as Battler anymore).
Yes, I feel this way too. It explains why this random "Will" person is reluctantly associated with the Ushiromiyas, but also knows them so well; it explains the concept of him being confined by Rokkenjima but also being an outsider to it.

And, of course, it explains how he has access to Theatergoing Authority: It's because his "vessel" literally lives with The Witch of Theatergoing. Honestly, I think it's otherwise quite difficult to suppose Will to represent an actual person in any other circumstance, because that represented person would apparently have access to information he otherwise shouldn't have (everything gained through Theatergoing Authority). But if Ikuko is Yasu and Will is Touya, it pretty much explains itself.
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Old 2012-10-20, 23:30   Link #30943
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
That's pretty creepy in of itself, but you did way more than that. You also wrote the day they'd die (and if you actually believe in the bomb device, you even wrote the minute they'd die). You also predicted who would be present that day and who wouldn't. And you also predicted the weather on that day. Then you, for some reason, wrote a second very similar story about that same day. And then you put them into message bottles which you threw into the sea within days before it actually happened.
Well, did either of the original stories actually contain a line like "and then at exactly midnight, the rest of the survivors died"? The fantasy narratives say something happens at midnight, but those are arguably added post-incident by Ikuko.

For that matter, do the stories even agree on when the typhoon started?
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Old 2012-10-21, 01:56   Link #30944
Kealym
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Huh, that's an interesting interpretation of the cheese riddle ...

Actually, I assume the correct and intended answer is still "3". The rules didn't specify the shape of the cheese, and an assumption is made when it's read aloud, but I'd say that the shape was very strongly implied by the illustration.

The "mistake" Erika points out isn't that the shape isn't specified, but that it isn't specified VERY explicitly by the text as well, which I wouldn't really call a mistake at all ... though as chronotrig says, it's certainly a matter of interpretation, and the shape of the riddle DOES change depending on how it's presented. It's truly interesting - Erika and Battler gave the right answer to the riddle they were given, which is NOT the same riddle Maria was holding in her hands...

Anyway, I'd say, if I were Beato, and this answer of "three slices" was very important to me like Shkanon is to her, I'd be ... well, I wouldn't be very pleased with such a twisted answer, but you WOULD appreciate the effort spent. "Well, you tried, and that IS kind of interesting, since I didn't give you enough restrictions to deny that sort of thinking."

My real opposition to Kiltias' sentiment of "I believe in Yasu, but I also think there's more" is that I, and everyone here, has presumably been thinking about it, at least a bit, for some years now, and there doesn't seem to be enough, in the text of the story itself, to land on a fully satisfying "something else". It also implies a level of cleverness on Ryukishi's part that, well ... i don't think is there.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
And just a fun fact: The number of typhoons that hit Japan in 1986 in real life is zero.
Wow, that's wonderful. XD

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Right, but we're not talking about the mystery books world. We're talking about Prime.
Mmm, yeah, but ... for us, even Prime still exists in the world of mystery books. For us, it's on the same level as more typical mystery works, and you know how THOSE tend to roll...
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Old 2012-10-21, 02:07   Link #30945
qno2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura
For that matter, do the stories even agree on when the typhoon started?
No.

EP1 - a bit after 5 pm
EP2 - around 1pm

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig
So far, her MO has always been to do something that looks impossible, to make it look like she can win without even trying, but to prevent suspicion from falling on any innocent person. Yet unless Natsuhi is hallucinating or telling an extremely self-destructive lie, that phone person is trying to frame her for the crime in EP5. Of course, it's possible that some other person was trying to frame Yasu framing Natsuhi, but the only confirmed death in that episode (before the game end time) is Krauss, and he's killed immediately after one of those threatening phone calls to Natsuhi. So it looks as though the killer isn't Yasu.
Didn't Virgilia say something along the lines of "this is a game without love"? If we assume that Yasu still had some "compassion" for the Ushiromiya in the other stories, she'd abide by her own rules (for example she'd stop when the gold is found) and probably not frame anyone, not even the person she blames for the way her life turned out.

If Yasu however doesn't have that love (not necessary hate)... she might just want to see Natsuhi's world crumble.

Last edited by qno2; 2012-10-21 at 03:13.
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Old 2012-10-21, 02:55   Link #30946
Drifloon
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That cheese scene can be interpreted in many different ways, honestly. I personally see it as referring to the 'number of people' count. Depending on what you classify as a person, you could say in red that there are both 16 and 17 people on the island, and neither answer would necessarily be wrong. So basically it's a hint to working out the conflicting reds at the end of that episode, as well as hinting that 'people' doesn't always mean the same thing in the reds (though KNM doesn't seem to have got the hint...).
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Old 2012-10-21, 03:20   Link #30947
Renall
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
For that matter, do the stories even agree on when the typhoon started?
There appears to be some small variance, but the typhoon always starts after lunch (noonish at least) and before dinner (as Maria always meets someone and gets an umbrella, and it's the rain that provides impetus to go retrieve her). That's a fairly precise time window when dealing with weather patterns (and being about 6 hours off on when rain will start would make you more accurate than most meteorologists, who are often wrong by days). How long it lasts after that seems more questionable... the stories sometimes seem to ignore entirely that it ought to be raining most of the day Sunday, but some scenes (such as the fantasy ending of ep2) suggest the rain has stopped by Sunday near midnight.

Again, this should be easily verifiable in Prime. The national and local weather services track storms, they'd know to at least the same rough degree of accuracy whether the typhoon did in fact behave that way. On the other hand, if the tracking wasn't that sophisticated at the time, or Rokkenjima's location was not easily identifiable from the data, it might not be clear when exactly the typhoon arrived at all. In which case, the only "evidence" we have that the rain started when it did comes from the stories themselves. And obviously any story that follows the message bottles will tend toward self-perpetuation of the behavior of the storm, unless an author were to specifically try to vary that on purpose.

Given the apparent sophistication of the Rokkenjima Witch Hunt, this doesn't seem entirely likely. Then again, somebody came up with the idea of Erika and Lion.
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Old 2012-10-21, 03:47   Link #30948
Kealym
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Well, Erika probably wasn't much of a jump - she fell off her boat relatively nearby, right? And presumably (based on her faint backstory and general characterization) she WAS something of, at least ... a snoop? A very intelligent, possibly arrogant snoop? Forgery authors almost certainly cranked it up to 11 with her, because they were bored of reasonable-behavior Battler detective, but...

Y'know, I do think it slightly (not very) odd that the story always treats Erika entirely like an abstractm when she was a real person with real feeling just like everybody else. Like, Ange never bothered visiting the Furudo's and being like "the fuuuuuuck, guys?"
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Old 2012-10-21, 09:28   Link #30949
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Well, did either of the original stories actually contain a line like "and then at exactly midnight, the rest of the survivors died"? The fantasy narratives say something happens at midnight, but those are arguably added post-incident by Ikuko.
No, probably not. However, it's clear that they generally point to something happening at midnight. Plus the whole narrative, between the "solve the epitaph before time runs out" aspect, and the "everyone is murdered one by one until the witch finally swallows up the island" aspect, is clearly driven by some kind of internal time limit. I guess you could say it's the typhoon itself, but... meh I dunno. I have a hard time thinking that the general narrative that we read was terribly different from the account in the bottles. Mostly I think that maybe magic scenes were added and some perspectives were changed (like from Maria's to Battler's), but I don't think critical driving plot points are different, such as the order, timing, and method by which people were killed.

For reference:

Spoiler for Quote from Ange's monologue:


Quote:
Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
No.

EP1 - a bit after 5 pm
EP2 - around 1pm
Hum. That's just downright weird. I don't even know what to think.

It's something that would be independently verifiable. A typhoon is not a local event (they are enormous; ones with a radius of under 222km are considered "very small"). Even without any instruments at all, people on Niijima should have a pretty good idea of the current weather on Rokkenjima just by the weather on their own island. Or by looking in the direction of Rokkenjima and observing the clouds. Heck, with enough elevation they could probably even see the island itself. And that isn't to say they didn't have instruments at that time; they did, including satellite photographs.

I'm beginning to think that maybe Ryuukishi simply failed to realize this.

But still, to guess even the day of a typhoon is very unlikely. Unless it was written within a few days before the typhoon (I did some research on this a while ago; weather reports at the time could predict typhoon movements with a useful level of accuracy up to about 3 days in advance), which is possible. It even kind of fits with how the typhoons vary by a few hours. Or heck, we can even suppose it was written post-incident with such variations intentionally, to try to throw us off into thinking it was written pre-incident.

In any case, this remains only one issue of many. It still is an unacceptable coincidence to write of the deaths of everyone around you on a specific date, put those writings to sea within days before that date (and for what reason?), and then have it actually happen. Of course it's fine if you suppose the writer is the culprit (because then the level of coincidence is substantially reduced), but then you have to wonder why the police didn't seem to think the same thing.

Basically, pre-incident writing may be possible (although still quite questionable), but if that's what happened then Yasu is most definitely the culprit.

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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Y'know, I do think it slightly (not very) odd that the story always treats Erika entirely like an abstractm when she was a real person with real feeling just like everybody else. Like, Ange never bothered visiting the Furudo's and being like "the fuuuuuuck, guys?"
When was it established that Erika was a real person?
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Old 2012-10-21, 10:30   Link #30950
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Anyway, I'd say, if I were Beato, and this answer of "three slices" was very important to me like Shkanon is to her, I'd be ... well, I wouldn't be very pleased with such a twisted answer, but you WOULD appreciate the effort spent. "Well, you tried, and that IS kind of interesting, since I didn't give you enough restrictions to deny that sort of thinking."
It depends on the type of second answer given. If it just differs completely from Yasu's answer, then yeah, she probably wouldn't like it too much. Take Erika's answer in EP5, for example.

However, if it was, like Battler's cookie answer, found after the original answer was found, and assuming that the second writer is fond of the first answer, then the second answer will almost certainly be proof that someone has understood Beatrice's writings and is expanding on them. Since this is actually hinted at as soon as we first hear about the forgeries, it seems pretty likely to me.

In other words, if there is a second answer, it still has to include most if not all of Yasu's backstory and personality. Especially after all we're told in EP7 about Yasu's past. In my mind, that basically guarantees that Yasu is a major player in any valid answer.


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Originally Posted by qno2 View Post
Didn't Virgilia say something along the lines of "this is a game without love"? If we assume that Yasu still had some "compassion" for the Ushiromiya in the other stories, she'd abide by her own rules (for example she'd stop when the gold is found) and probably not frame anyone, not even the person she blames for the way her life turned out.

If Yasu however doesn't have that love (not necessary hate)... she might just want to see Natsuhi's world crumble.
Well, I think there's a big gap between having compassion and threatening someone sexually in the middle of the night. Reading those phone calls, they're clearly far more cruel than was strictly necessary for any sort of culprit. Also, EP5 guarantees that Yasu's goal is not revenge, so she can't be framing Natsuhi her only motive is that she blames her for the way her life turned out.

But since we can't rely on red text: if Beatrice did want revenge on someone, does it really make sense that she'd say it directly? We see her taking revenge at several times in the past, and each time, it's by pulling some mostly harmless but scary prank without even telling the person that she feels vengeful. If Beatrice made those phone calls, she's doing the opposite of everything she's done in the past, and in the previous games as well (the white horse thing in particular).

Then again, it's physically impossible for Yasu to have made the first phone call after the conference starts (only Genji, Gohda, or Kumasawa could have done it, and possibly Jessica or George if they had an accomplice). And she was apparently knocking on the door to Natsuhi's room when the second call was being made, which was also the exact time that Krauss died. So maybe she just delegated all the phone calls and the actual killing to someone else, and this person had a deeper grudge against Natsuhi which slipped out in the phone call.

However, I don't see much direct evidence that ties Yasu to this mystery person. We only have "a servant must have been involved, and Yasu usually controls most of the servants". And if we're just appealing to precedent, the fact that this totally isn't Yasu's style should do something to counter that.
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Old 2012-10-21, 11:37   Link #30951
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Furthermore, even if I granted that all it said was something like "there was a typhoon that kept Kuwabata from picking them up" (which I don't, at all), it's still hard to swallow. Like, if we supposed an average of 3 typhoons hitting per month during that time of year (I'm actually giving a very generous estimate here), then the chance of a typhoon hitting on a given day is still only about 10%. By the way, this is reasoning just based off the top of my head.

So, I did some basic research:

Average number that hit somewhere in the Japanese mainland per year? A little less than 3. Most, but not all, happen in September and October.

And just a fun fact: The number of typhoons that hit Japan in 1986 in real life is zero.
Wanderer, those arguments you're using are the same you used previously.
At this point it's not that I don't want to counter them is that we already had this discussion and nothing changed in both our opinions so really, do we have to go through this another time?

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That's pretty creepy in of itself, but you did way more than that. You also wrote the day they'd die (and if you actually believe in the bomb device, you even wrote the minute they'd die). You also predicted who would be present that day and who wouldn't. And you also predicted the weather on that day. Then you, for some reason, wrote a second very similar story about that same day. And then you put them into message bottles which you threw into the sea within days before it actually happened.
And all this had happened in horror stories too and exactly because it's creepy.
Yes, in real life it's unlikely if not impossible it'll happen but in tales? It's like challenging fate and saying 'it can't go worse than that' because it'll immediately go worse.

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Not that I think such a dumb coincidence happened in the first place, but even if it did, why would the police just go and assume it was a coincidence? You even call it a "suspicious" coincidence yourself.
All that Umineko says is that the police was suspicious at first, then checked the writing so that they found out it wasn't Eva or Maria and then... that's all we know they did with it.
The why is left unexplained. Either they know who wrote it but they never disclose the info so not even Ootsuki knows or they had their own reasons to drop investigating over it.
Umineko doesn't give any explanation so we can make dozens of assumptions that ranges from dumb policemen to goverment order to drop investigations so it won't come up that they left Kinzo with that huge amount of explosive but we can't prove none so which would be the point?

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Why? I mean, sure it's pretty extraordinary, but I don't see how it's entirely implausible.
Then I can only assume you don't know well the history of that time.
After 1943 the RSI was under German control, especially in regard of military equipment so using submarines without German control wasn't so easy.
But that's not all. You also have to put in it gold and Umineko leaves it in doubt if it's Italian or Italy stoled it from Germany because, of course, Germany left around huge amounts of gold.
But let's pretend they did or that Italy had some and managed to place it on a submarine under the nose of the German army and also to pick up that submarine and leave for a secret mission without Germany realizing a submarine was missing.
Then they have to travel through all the Mediterranean sea, circumnavigate Africa and reach Asia all while America and England have almost complete control of those seas and coastlines all to: bring gold in Japan who's an ally of the Axis and therefore is losing war so the gold will likely end in American hands, otherwise, in the remote case they'll win for unknown reasons, as Japan is an ally of the Axis which means of Germany too, it'll have to tattle out that Italy hid its gold from Germany as well as America.
All this when there are places like Switzerland and Spain who're way easier and less risky to reach and that won't have to turn the gold to either Germany or America and that were often used exactly for this purpose.

It's not a dumb plan, it's the dumbest plan ever.

And to make things more interesting the Italian forces and the Japanese forces manage to off each other in a spectacular duel that sees remaining alive only Beato and Kinzo.

And apparently nobody ever investigated on this. They all conveniently forgot and Kinzo even managed to buy a island with a military base still completely equipped with explosive and even to keep it working. He even installed a self destruction button on it connected with a clock.

It seems a plot more fitting for an absurd comedy than for something that could happen in real life.

Find it believable if you like but my suspension of incredulity really can't bear so much.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Right, but we're not talking about the mystery books world. We're talking about Prime.
But Prime is a tale, it's not like it's real.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
The whole point I'm trying to make is that it's weird to think the police wouldn't investigate it. So either the police did, and came up with nothing, or it's a complete hoax from the start. But you seem to be suggesting that it's not a hoax (and, from what we're told, the police thought it wasn't), yet the police still didn't investigate it for some inexplicable reason, simply based on the fact that it was not explicitly stated that they did investigate it.

Am I correct in my assessment of what you're saying?
Not quite.
From what we know the police investigated on it as they checked if it was written by Eva or Maria.

But that's all. Then they either cut investigations or kept them so secret nobody
ever heard a thing about them.

In short all that followed 'they weren't written by Eva or Maria' ended up in a catbox for us. The odd thing is that neither the witch hunter or Ange tried to open it. Ootsuki doesn't know who wrote the message and Ange didn't try to find the truth from the police. Either the police has no truth to offer or, for unknown reasons, they're keeping it hidden.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Yes, I feel this way too. It explains why this random "Will" person is reluctantly associated with the Ushiromiyas, but also knows them so well; it explains the concept of him being confined by Rokkenjima but also being an outsider to it.

And, of course, it explains how he has access to Theatergoing Authority: It's because his "vessel" literally lives with The Witch of Theatergoing. Honestly, I think it's otherwise quite difficult to suppose Will to represent an actual person in any other circumstance, because that represented person would apparently have access to information he otherwise shouldn't have (everything gained through Theatergoing Authority). But if Ikuko is Yasu and Will is Touya, it pretty much explains itself.
Exactly.
Also it would explain how in a sidestory Ange said it would be difficult for Will and Battler to show up in a single work and how Will and Battler's idea that the heart is important match as well as the fact that Will knows that Battler in the end figured out everything while Clair doesn't. Yasu might have never known Battler managed to solve her game but Toya might have remembered he did.

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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Can we say that EP5 was obviously Yasu?

So far, her MO has always been to do something that looks impossible, to make it look like she can win without even trying, but to prevent suspicion from falling on any innocent person. Yet unless Natsuhi is hallucinating or telling an extremely self-destructive lie, that phone person is trying to frame her for the crime in EP5. Of course, it's possible that some other person was trying to frame Yasu framing Natsuhi, but the only confirmed death in that episode (before the game end time) is Krauss, and he's killed immediately after one of those threatening phone calls to Natsuhi. So it looks as though the killer isn't Yasu.
No, not really. In Ep 3 Eva suspects the cousins to have killed George while they suspect Eva to be the culprit.
Game 5 merely makes obvious Natsuhi is being manipulated but the same might have happened with Rosa in EP 2 for example, or with Natsuhi herself in Ep 1, or with Eva in Ep 3.

But I don't get why you say the killer isn't Yasu. What would stop Yasu from killing Krauss? If I'm not wrong in an interview Ryukishi said it can be predicted how the game would have continued if Ep 5 hadn't been interrupted.

Plus the idea between Ep 5 is that Lambda constructed it so that Battler could reach the same result he would have reached with the other 4. It would be weird if it were to point to a different culprit.
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Old 2012-10-21, 12:01   Link #30952
Kealym
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When was it established that Erika was a real person?
Her EP6 TIP. I'd say it's supported by the chapter about her boyfriend and all those passing "even before you were Bern's piece," lines. She's also thoroughly supported by the goats of the future, so it's hard to think they made her up entirely.

You might say she's in a very unique position in relation to the catbox, since her body was never found, and her Prime personality suited the Detective role. It's like the box was set down on top of her, and she's kinda stuck, half inside, a crack in the bottom of it.

Side note, I think I prefer Erika's look when her pigtails were really short, when she flashbacks in the manga.
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Old 2012-10-21, 12:11   Link #30953
jjblue1
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But still, to guess even the day of a typhoon is very unlikely. Unless it was written within a few days before the typhoon (I did some research on this a while ago; weather reports at the time could predict typhoon movements with a useful level of accuracy up to about 3 days in advance), which is possible. It even kind of fits with how the typhoons vary by a few hours. Or heck, we can even suppose it was written post-incident with such variations intentionally, to try to throw us off into thinking it was written pre-incident.

In any case, this remains only one issue of many. It still is an unacceptable coincidence to write of the deaths of everyone around you on a specific date, put those writings to sea within days before that date (and for what reason?), and then have it actually happen. Of course it's fine if you suppose the writer is the culprit (because then the level of coincidence is substantially reduced), but then you have to wonder why the police didn't seem to think the same thing.

Basically, pre-incident writing may be possible (although still quite questionable), but if that's what happened then Yasu is most definitely the culprit.
What about going bak to the old theory of Shannon marely organizing a game and then wanting to stageplay it?

She wrotes several version then tossed them away, however the one she kept end up being taken over/end up badly or whatever so that her tale became true.

It's also a typical plot though.

Guy A writes a murder tale and guy B turns it into reality.
Same goes for:
Group A is playing a tale then something happens that makes that tale turn into some sort of reality (in the first horror movie I saw some guys were recording a movie in a theatre in which a murderer killed everyone. Guess what happens? A real murderer shows up and kills everyone as the script said... and I think one of the Scream movies also did something similar...)
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Old 2012-10-21, 12:37   Link #30954
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
No, not really. In Ep 3 Eva suspects the cousins to have killed George while they suspect Eva to be the culprit.
Game 5 merely makes obvious Natsuhi is being manipulated but the same might have happened with Rosa in EP 2 for example, or with Natsuhi herself in Ep 1, or with Eva in Ep 3.
I've got no real objections with what you've said. There's plenty of evidence suggesting that Yasu manipulated people by making them look suspicious, if we assume that she's the killer. However, in those cases, she manipulates people into saying or doing things that make it look like the crimes were impossible.

What motive would she have for making Natsuhi wait alone in the room where Hideyoshi would be killed (or whatever room it was)? It does nothing to advance the theory that the crimes were impossible, the opposite in fact. It can't be because she wanted to blackmail Natsuhi further in the future to help with the crimes, because she already had Krauss hostage. If she's able to convince Natsuhi to hide alone and undefended in a closet, and to not even cry out when Hideyoshi comes in and starts getting murdered, how much more leverage does she need?

Are we supposed to see it as a mistake when Natsuhi is actually accused of the crimes by Erika? If that is Yasu's intended result, then what on earth could her motive for the crimes be?
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Old 2012-10-21, 12:58   Link #30955
GabrieliosP
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EP5 is a game 'without love', so the reason for the murders pretty much was 'for the lulz' hence why it didn't stop even with the epitaph solved.
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Old 2012-10-21, 13:17   Link #30956
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Yeah, I think EP5 is just a game where Yasu's a jerk who wants revenge on Natsuhi for throwing her off the cliff, and sets up the whole conspiracy to humiliate her.

Who knows who actually killed everyone, though.

Also, why is there any debate over who made the phone call? It's quite obviously Battler, considering who voices said call in the PS3 version combined with the fact that Battler is confirmed to be an accomplice in EP5.
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Old 2012-10-21, 13:47   Link #30957
jjblue1
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
I've got no real objections with what you've said. There's plenty of evidence suggesting that Yasu manipulated people by making them look suspicious, if we assume that she's the killer. However, in those cases, she manipulates people into saying or doing things that make it look like the crimes were impossible.

What motive would she have for making Natsuhi wait alone in the room where Hideyoshi would be killed (or whatever room it was)? It does nothing to advance the theory that the crimes were impossible, the opposite in fact. It can't be because she wanted to blackmail Natsuhi further in the future to help with the crimes, because she already had Krauss hostage. If she's able to convince Natsuhi to hide alone and undefended in a closet, and to not even cry out when Hideyoshi comes in and starts getting murdered, how much more leverage does she need?

Are we supposed to see it as a mistake when Natsuhi is actually accused of the crimes by Erika? If that is Yasu's intended result, then what on earth could her motive for the crimes be?
I think the difference between EP 5 and the other episodes is that it makes clear that Natsuhi is blackmailed and that there's someone who's willing to suspect her.

In Ep 4 it was possible for Battler to assume (prior to the end of the game) that one of the relatives had really killed the others and that Kumasawa and Gohda were being blackmailed in telling that absurd tale, same as Kyrie and Krauss.
However Battler accepts that Kinzo summoned demons, avoiding to try to pin someone as culprit.
More or less the same goes in EP 1, 2 & 3 though there's to note that Battler didn't know he had detective authority (if he ever had the chance to use it) and we're talking about his family. In EP 1-4 he's more busy trying to absolve people, surviving and keeping the others alive as well as obeying to the adults than to do investigation and make accusations.

And this is perfectly normal.

It's Erika who's the one with the odd behaviour for real life (on the contrary as a detective in a mystery her actions are indeed perfectly normal) so that when there's a murder she can force her way in a room even if she'd been told not to enter and has no problems accusing people.

Battler, on the contrary, in EP 2 felt the need to defend Kanon when it was extremely easy to place the blame on him for Jessica's murder.

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Originally Posted by GabrieliosP View Post
EP5 is a game 'without love', so the reason for the murders pretty much was 'for the lulz' hence why it didn't stop even with the epitaph solved.
It's a good question and we've the same problem for EP 3. Ryukishi said Yasu would stop if the epitaph was solved. There's to say though that in EP 5 there's no challenge. No mysterious letter is handed to Maria as the person she meets isn't Beato but Erika.
So maybe the rules of the game are different in EP 5?

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Originally Posted by Drifloon View Post
Yeah, I think EP5 is just a game where Yasu's a jerk who wants revenge on Natsuhi for throwing her off the cliff, and sets up the whole conspiracy to humiliate her.

Who knows who actually killed everyone, though.

Also, why is there any debate over who made the phone call? It's quite obviously Battler, considering who voices said call in the PS3 version combined with the fact that Battler is confirmed to be an accomplice in EP5.
The phone calls started before Battler reached Rokkenjima so Yasu should have contacted him somehow... also, although Battler is an accomplice as Eva and Hideyoshi they likely were only thinking to trick Natsuhi, not to really kill people.
If he's doing the phonecalls his level of involvement is pretty high... I would think the voice used in the PS3 is merely to better fit with the Battler culprit theory Battler presented.
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Old 2012-10-21, 13:48   Link #30958
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by GabrieliosP View Post
EP5 is a game 'without love', so the reason for the murders pretty much was 'for the lulz' hence why it didn't stop even with the epitaph solved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drifloon View Post
Yeah, I think EP5 is just a game where Yasu's a jerk who wants revenge on Natsuhi for throwing her off the cliff, and sets up the whole conspiracy to humiliate her.

Who knows who actually killed everyone, though.
Except Virigilia used red to deny that Yasu ever killed for entertainment. She also said "her goal isn't to have revenge on someone", a red that didn't explicitly refer to the murders.

Even Erika admits that you need a motive to commit murder. You can't explain this crazy game by saying the culprit just didn't have a motive this once.
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Old 2012-10-21, 14:23   Link #30959
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Quote:
Except Virigilia used red to deny that Yasu ever killed for entertainment. She also said "her goal isn't to have revenge on someone", a red that didn't explicitly refer to the murders.
Assuming Yasu is the culprit of EP5. Or that anyone was killed by her or on her orders. in EP5 especially this is quite debatable.
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Old 2012-10-21, 14:28   Link #30960
Drifloon
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Virgilia can't make a red about Lambda's game. She knows nothing about it. That red only applies to Beatrice's games.
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