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Old 2009-11-11, 16:41   Link #3081
Marion
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Shannon = Kanon is realistically dumb as well. This implies that every scene with Shannon and Kanon that Battler does not witness is a lie in some way. I'm sorry but what. That's just stretching it a bit. Not to mention Shannon's bust and Kanon's...well no boobs thing.

And as Itherko says, there is no benefit from hiding Shannon or Kanon's death.

Spoiler for EP 5:
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Old 2009-11-11, 16:42   Link #3082
Kitsu
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But then, what would the point be of hiding the death of a servent that died before October 4th? They are hired help. Orphans that are set loose later after they earn some money and skills in these two's case...Shannon being somewhat of an exception as she's been there ten years.
My point here was that the one who died didn't die in accident therefore hiding would make sense. But well I'm not that into Kshannon therefore I don't think I can explain every little detail. Let's say I'm a non-believer and playing devils advocate

Quote:
Hiding Kinzo's death serves a purpose. Hiding Shannon or Kanon's does not. Both live on the island, so those that also live on the island would notice things being different or changed. Thus Krauss, Natsuhi, and Jessica would notice for sure. As would Genji who I assume lives there as well. If Shannon was dead, Jessica...her friend, would notice. If Kanon were dead, Jessica would definately notice, considering how interested in Kanon she is.
I don't know about that. I believe if Kshannon is the case it is as following:
Due the dead of the other one the living one suffers a mental damage and develops a dissociative identity disorder in which Kanon and Shannon both "take turns" means at one time Kanon is there and at the other time Shannon is there therefore beign able to copy the other one perfectly. And with the friendly help of Genji or Kumasawa no one would take notice.
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Old 2009-11-11, 18:08   Link #3083
Renall
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I dismiss the theory immediately merely because of narrative convenience: r07 already did the "people switching places" thing in Higurashi, so he knows we'll be expecting it. Thus, if he does it at all (which I doubt), it won't be some obvious thing like "the servants are the same person," or "Nanjo is the real Kinzo," or "Kyrie is Kasumi." It'll be some really bizarre association none of us would have guessed.

After Shmion he's not going to use the exact same trick the exact same way.
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Old 2009-11-11, 22:02   Link #3084
Neofio3
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I wouldn't say so, the kanji means "war" and "person", this is definitely not a name a japanese would normally give to a girl.
You mean 戦, which means war, battle, and match (人, person, is pretty obvious). In any case, it could also mean "match" person, or "game" person.

However, it is still non-standard and non-gendered. Its not a name a Japanese would give anyone (be it male or female). Unless you want to posit the reasoning against it being the stereotype of boys playing soldiers, or whatever.

Quote:
And why it needs to be a person on the island?
It doesn't need to be. I stated *if* it were. If it were, then it would be the only person we know left. Its a theory, basically.

Quote:
We are talking about hints here, not theories. Specifically we were talking about hints that might point to Jessica as Beatrice.
This whole theory that Jessica is Asumu's child is completely unrelated. Also the 07151129 itself doesn't hint to that.

All the other hints are pretty straight forward A therefore B

But what you are proposing here as a hint is something like
if((A = B) && (B = C) && (E = F)) therefore D

Your hint is a hint only if the following conditions are met:

07151129 refers to a birth date
Asumu's child is still alive
Asumu's child is on the island
Asumu's child is Beatrice

A true hint doesn't need a set of theories to be seen as a hint.
Obviously this would be my fault, lacking the pedantry to specifically designate hints from theories (understandable as it is. The thread is called "spoilers and speculations", after all). Fine then, move the specific point of 07151129 to "theory" rather than "hint". By that vein, 07151129 cannot be a "hint" for anything, as we know almost nothing about it. Anything we use it on is a theory.

Which, in the end, does nothing to disprove the Jessitrice hypothesis, as a unified theory. The possibility of her as Beatrice, as stated, is not dependent on the theory of 07151129 (Asumu's child), after all, but on others as well (Beatrice's child, Kinzo's orphan, etc...)
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Last edited by Neofio3; 2009-11-11 at 22:13.
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Old 2009-11-11, 22:05   Link #3085
ijriims
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Let's say somehow one of them (Shannon or Kanon) died before Oct 4. From a realistic point of view, imposing as a girl by a boy would be much more easier than imposing as a boy by a girl (with big boobs). And Kanon imposing as Shannon would not contravene the red texts that "Other people could be say they were Kanon except that person"

In this case, George was so stupid for not discerning Shannon was imposed by Kanon and still proposed to "her".

Or in a more unlikely case, Shannon did successfully impose Kanon with some magical makeups to reduce her body size (and boobs). In this case, Jessica would be the dumb person to not find out he was actually imposed by Shannon and cried alot after she thought Kanon died in EP1.

And for some mysterious reasons, Krauss, Natsuhi, Genji, Gohda and Kumasawa did not detect the difference at all or they colluded together to hide it.

According to Shakanon theory, Shannon and Kanon were the same person during the 4th and 5th Oct, 1986, then there was a hidden 17X person on the island. Who was this guy? And truly I have to congratulations to Battler since he did not need to suspect his family relatives anymore. (Wait, why would Shannon or Kanon die in this case? And why would the death have to be hidden? There is still something fishy pointing to Battler's family members here)

This theory was likely to be the truth, huh?

-----------------------------------------------------

And I can see that nobody wants to comment on my recent review of my own hypothesis Kyrie=Beatrice. Bad or Good or boring or what?

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-11-11 at 23:56.
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Old 2009-11-12, 04:35   Link #3086
Dr. Akagi
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Any theory stating that Kyrie=Beatrice is made of win.

Because the probability that it's either Shannon or Jessica is... lemme see....

Spoiler for Probability:
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Old 2009-11-12, 05:29   Link #3087
Kitsu
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As long it isn't 0% a miracle can happen.
And to be honest the chances that Jessica or Shannon are Beato are rather high. As high as the chance that Kyrie or Rosa are Beatrice if not higher.
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Old 2009-11-12, 06:38   Link #3088
ijriims
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If Real Beatrice did not plan the kilings at all, then there is a high chance that Shannon and Jessica are Beatrice. However, the probability that the Real Beatrice was not the mastermind is very low(Because in EP4, Ange noticed that the notebook of Maria was transgressing from funny, innocent magic to dark magic. In Ep4, it was hinted that Beatrice was letting Maria to avenge on her own mother. So innocent Shannon and Jessica did not fit the role). This makes me think that Shannon and Jessica were not Beatrice.

Someone said that Kyrie had a good chance of being the mastermind but not the Beatrice.


Why would we all arrive at different hypotheses and even held opposing opinion on so many matters? Because of shipments? Because of fandoms? Because we, as normal humans, are reluctant to discard our own initial hypotheses and turned a blind eye to the some hints and arguments? Because of our diverse understanding of Ryukishi07's intention?

All of the above are true, I believe. So there is no point to argue with someone when it gets to the matter of personal beliefs and inclinations.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Let's have a comparison among the most popular hypotheses and my own one:

"Jessica=Beatrice, Kanon as accomplice" hypothesis has difficulty in explaining EP2 after 2nd twilight, EP3 after 1st twilight, EP4, Battler's sin and motive of the killings. Resorting to Kanon abandoning his name was one way out. Though it is close to Jedi truth that one should doubt whether Ryukishi07 would use such a word-play in a mystery novel. Unconvincing therefore.

"Shannon=Beatrice, George as accomplice" hypothesis has diffculty in explaining EP1 after 1st twilight, EP2 for4-6 twilights, EP3 after 1st twilight, EP4, and Battler's sin. Motive of the killings could be solved if George was seeking after money, though it was out of his character and thus unconvincing.

"Kyrie=Beatrice" hypothesis has difficulty in explaining EP1 after 1st twilight, EP2 after 1st twilight. I think I have articulated the events in EP3, EP4 and explained the motive of the killings detailedly for this hypothesis. It is so far the most convincing and complete hypothesis, of course IMO.

(So far I have not seen Rosa=Beatrice hypothesis except perhaps in explaining EP2, maybe having much potential but I am not going to develop it myself.)

EDIT: "Beatrice=Beatrice and while Maria might be a little gullible with regards to her actually using magic, she's real and exists on the island, possibly in disguise." hypothesis could have to explain all events since it separated Beatrice and the real culprit. How was Battler's sin related was also a big difficulty as it was stated that Beatrice did not exist six years ago and red texts that "Battler's sin has nothing to do with Beatrice"

(Why do I sound so much like a salesman???)

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-11-12 at 10:56.
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Old 2009-11-12, 06:43   Link #3089
Dr. Akagi
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Rosa as Beatrice? Do not want!

She is forever the BEST MOM EVER (aka The Witch of Just Deserts to all annoying brats around the world).

On a more serious note, ijriims is definitely on to something regarding Kinzo’s plans concerning his children.

I believe there are several Beatrices with different agendas in Umineko (and I do hope the number of Beatrices is finite, because by the end of Episode 3 it sure looked like they were multiplying like rabbits during mating season).

For once, there is a human culprit-Beatrice (=Kyrie).

There also has to be “Beatrice the Golden”-Beatrice, who is responsible for the first letter of Episode 1 (probably Shannon or Kumasawa); that Beatrice is part of the servants’ group acting out the will of the late Kinzo set in motion before his death. The leader of that “test-the-worth-of–my-heirs” group (which has nothing to do with the murders, at least at the outset) is probably Kumasawa or Nanjo (as a friend and executor of will of his dead friend).
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Old 2009-11-12, 07:18   Link #3090
ijriims
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BTW, does anyone have a translated version of the Extra TIPS "ある料理人の雑記" - the diary or memo of Gohda?

I could not read Japanese but it seems to suggest that Genji knew how to draw the magical circles.
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Old 2009-11-12, 07:36   Link #3091
Kitsu
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It's aready translated and it tell us that there was a "Beatrice" running around the island for a long time not only during the family conference. Therefore the Beatrice has to live on ROkkenjima or so most people think. Closing the circle to Kanon, Shannon and jessica mostly.
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Old 2009-11-12, 07:45   Link #3092
Workworkwork
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
If Real Beatrice did not plan the kilings at all, then there is a high chance that Shannon and Jessica are Beatrice. However, the probability that the Real Beatrice was not the mastermind is very low(Because in EP4, Ange noticed that the notebook of Maria was transgressing from funny, innocent magic to dark magic. In Ep4, it was hinted that Beatrice was letting Maria to avenge on her own mother. So innocent Shannon and Jessica did not fit the role). This makes me think that Shannon and Jessica were not Beatrice.

Someone said that Kyrie had a good chance of being the mastermind but not the Beatrice.


Why would we all arrive at different hypotheses and even held opposing opinion on so many matters? Because of shipments? Because of fandoms? Because we, as normal humans, are reluctant to discard our own initial hypotheses and turned a blind eye to the some hints and arguments? Because of our diverse understanding of Ryukishi07's intention?

All of the above are true, I believe. So there is no point to argue with someone when it gets to the matter of personal beliefs and inclinations.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Let's have a comparison among the most popular hypotheses and my own one:

"Jessica=Beatrice, Kanon as accomplice" hypothesis has difficulty in explaining EP2 after 2nd twilight, EP3 after 1st twilight, EP4, Battler's sin and motive of the killings. Resorting to Kanon abandoning his name was one way out. Though it is close to Jedi truth that one should doubt whether Ryukishi07 would use such a word-play in a mystery novel. Unconvincing therefore.

"Shannon=Beatrice, George as accomplice" hypothesis has diffculty in explaining EP1 after 1st twilight, EP2 for4-6 twilights, EP3 after 1st twilight, EP4, and Battler's sin. Motive of the killings could be solved if George was seeking after money, though it was out of his character and thus unconvincing.

"Kyrie=Beatrice" hypothesis has difficulty in explaining EP1 after 1st twilight, EP2 after 1st twilight. I think I have articulated the events in EP3, EP4 and explained the motive of the killings detailedly for this hypothesis. It is so far the most convincing and complete hypothesis, of course IMO.

(So far I have not seen Rosa=Beatrice hypothesis except perhaps in explaining EP2, maybe having much potential but I am not going to develop it myself.)

(Why do I sound so much like a salesman???)
I'm with the suprisingly unpopular "Beatrice=Beatrice and while Maria might be a little gullible with regards to her actually using magic, she's real and exists on the island, possibly in disguise."
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Old 2009-11-12, 07:49   Link #3093
ijriims
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
I'm with the suprisingly unpopular "Beatrice=Beatrice and while Maria might be a little gullible with regards to her actually using magic, she's real and exists on the island, possibly in disguise."
Hmmmmm....... Sorry I don't know. But where did that Beatrice go during 4-5th Oct? And how was her ability to use magic related to the incidents? Who was disguising her (or disguising who, Kumasawa?)?

@Kitsu: I want to know where to find it and I would like to draw the conclusion myself.
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Old 2009-11-12, 08:28   Link #3094
Kaiba
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I'm with the suprisingly unpopular "Beatrice=Beatrice and while Maria might be a little gullible with regards to her actually using magic, she's real and exists on the island, possibly in disguise."
Wait, wait, what are you saying, because you make it sound like Beatrice is not one of the 17 people on the island, which is obviously not true? Everyone generally accepts that Beatrice is one of the people on the island, from what I've seen.

Quote:
"Shannon=Beatrice, George as accomplice" hypothesis has diffculty in explaining EP1 after 1st twilight
Huh? That's one of the easiest to explain. Shannon fakes death, leaves shed somehow, and proceeds to murder everyone. Pretty simple.

Quote:
EP2 for4-6 twilights
Genji decides that he will strike first before he's betrayed by George and Shannon and kills them first as well as Gohda as he's there.

Quote:
EP3 after 1st twilight
George doesn't do anything, but with no one giving him orders, Nanjo goes and kills most of the people for money's sake.

Quote:
EP4
Shannon tries to stop the murders by going to the family conference and declaring herself as Kinzo since she's solved the riddle. It fails spectaculary, and she goes nuts, killing all of the other members and then herself.

Quote:
Battler's sin
The pony theory - ie. Battler betrays a promise to Shannon, thus causing Shannon to go out with George and the plan to formulate.

Kyrie as Beatrice from my perspective fails to explain all of Episode 1 after the First Twilight (as you can't really make a case that Kyrie's alive), all of the Second Twilight (unless you want to implicate Rosa in that episode, which I won't do as that's far too easy).

Also on another point:
I was thinking about Jan-Poo's theory that originally there were going to be fake murders, and frankly I like it quite a bit, as it helps to explain why Hideyoshi would possibly choose to cover up Shannon being alive without him being involved and also why Eva/Hideyoshi were the second ones to die.
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Old 2009-11-12, 08:47   Link #3095
Geekodot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiba View Post


Genji decides that he will strike first before he's betrayed by George and Shannon and kills them first as well as Gohda as he's there.

How did Genji kill them inside the room?xD
Red text doesn't permit it.


-Natsuhi's room was exactly the same, just like usual
-The door and the windows were locked from the inside
-There is no fraud or trick, there is no means of secret passage and no hidden place
-Natsuhi's own key was in George's pocket and the inside of the room was closed off
-Only the five master keys were left, and 'Rosa' was holding all of them
-After the master keys came into Rosa's control, never did any of them leave her hands!
-Except for the time when she lent it to Battler to unlock Natsuhi's room.
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Old 2009-11-12, 10:20   Link #3096
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Geekodot View Post
How did Genji kill them inside the room?xD
Red text doesn't permit it.


-Natsuhi's room was exactly the same, just like usual
-The door and the windows were locked from the inside
-There is no fraud or trick, there is no means of secret passage and no hidden place
-Natsuhi's own key was in George's pocket and the inside of the room was closed off
-Only the five master keys were left, and 'Rosa' was holding all of them
-After the master keys came into Rosa's control, never did any of them leave her hands!
-Except for the time when she lent it to Battler to unlock Natsuhi's room.
Unless Gohda locked the door from the inside before he died?
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Old 2009-11-12, 10:38   Link #3097
Geekodot
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Unless Gohda locked the door from the inside before he died?
Yes, he locked the door from the inside and just died with a stake stuck in his chest...
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Old 2009-11-12, 10:45   Link #3098
ijriims
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@Kaiba
Why I said EP1 1st twilight was difficult for "Shannon=Beatrice" is because: if Shannon could fake her death in EP1 without contradicting 身元不明死体について、その身元を全て保証する, then Kyrie could also fake her death in EP1.

If the "body" Hideyoshi saw was someone's body, then it contravene the red text. If what he saw was not something inanimate, and pass the red texts, then Kyrie would also pass it.

If there was nothing at all, then it only meant that Hideyoshi and Kanon was accomplice. But how did he know the ring was diamond ring in this case? It could be gold ring, or silver ring. And there is always a chance Battler or George entered the garden shed, there would be a high risk to discover that there was no body at all.

But why are they accomplice? Can anyone explain it to me?
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Old 2009-11-12, 10:49   Link #3099
rogerpepitone
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Kanon found the bolt cutters were found in a storeroom in episode 1, and Battler found them in the boiler room in episode 4, so someone moved them before than in one of the episodes; I think somebody had to get into the garden shed in episode 1.
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Old 2009-11-12, 11:09   Link #3100
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
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Originally Posted by Neofio3 View Post
You mean 戦, which means war, battle, and match (人, person, is pretty obvious). In any case, it could also mean "match" person, or "game" person.
Well it seems that your point is that since this name isn't specifically gendered then it can be either female or male. But you are asking for something that it is impossible, since in japanese names and kanji are all genderless with the exception of a few specific kanji like the obvious "woman" and "man".

However saying that there aren't female only names or male only names is also wrong. The distinction from such names comes from stereotyped associations.

For example if a name includes the kanji of 花 you can be 99% sure that it is a female name, though it only means flower.

Also names that end with "子" are 100% female names, even so the kanji itself means "child" and in a sentence can be used for both male and female children.
The same applies for the kanji "美" that means "beauty".

Conversely in male names you can find kanji like 大 (big), 馬 (horse), 健 (strength) which afaik are never found in female names.

So in the end yes, the distinction of male and female names is based on stereotyped associations, and "fighter" "warrior" wouldn't be seen as a fitting name for a girl. Nothing prevents that, but everyone would think it is odd.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
BTW, does anyone have a translated version of the Extra TIPS "ある料理人の雑記" - the diary or memo of Gohda?

I could not read Japanese but it seems to suggest that Genji knew how to draw the magical circles.
you can find links to the translation here alongside with all the other translated extra tips:

http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=3273

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Unless Gohda locked the door from the inside before he died?
Anticlimatic explanation but still working I guess ^_-

I'd like to point out that this trick is probably as old as the closed room concept itself. It is so classic that you can even find it in Haruhi Suzumiya! 'nuff said...
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