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Old 2013-07-29, 00:38   Link #32581
haguruma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Mmmmmmmmmm.

I still disagree with that assessment ; there's no reason to hold onto Kinzo's corpse, at all, since they plan for it to go missing, anyway. The study is a strong holding room, but not impenetrable - if one of the siblings were very insistent, they could still climb into the window, or strong arm Genji into giving them the key.
They COULD, but that's always the risk factor involved in such games (sounding like Kinzo himself here). It's just very unlikely for somebody among the siblings to randomly climb up ladders or force Genji to do anything, so that Krauss has a certain percentage of luck on his side.

But on the other hand you're slightly off I think, because I believe that Kyrie and Eva were hitting on something in I think it was EP3 that Krauss and Natsuhi also knew very well, Kinzo can't go missing. Kinzo has to die, best a natural death or in an unforeseeable accident, because if not Krauss looses the inheritance and his position as well. To the position of the next head the care-taking of the estate including Kinzo is bound. Should Kinzo die due to the negligence of Krauss or any of his family members or staff, he would loose everything.

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it's very unlikely it would ever be found unless the island were to see some major development in the future.
Like the development of the Rokkenjima resort?
Also don't forget that the island technically doesn't even belong to the Ushiromiya's anymore, so in case he is forced off the island he would at least like to have the corpse close to him, where he can easily move it.

It's also a pretty common thing to do for people who hide a death, even though it is technically a stupid idea. But you feel better if you have close watch over the thing you are hiding instead of tossing it away somewhere where everything could happen to it. And like already said, they need the corpse of Kinzo.
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Old 2013-07-29, 01:50   Link #32582
Kealym
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
They COULD, but that's always the risk factor involved in such games (sounding like Kinzo himself here). It's just very unlikely for somebody among the siblings to randomly climb up ladders or force Genji to do anything, so that Krauss has a certain percentage of luck on his side.
It's true it's unlikely, but not impossible. They have so much sheer space available to them, it seems so illogical to bother keeping him in the house at all, where the odds of finding him are anything higher than 0.


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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
But on the other hand you're slightly off I think, because I believe that Kyrie and Eva were hitting on something in I think it was EP3 that Krauss and Natsuhi also knew very well, Kinzo can't go missing. Kinzo has to die, best a natural death or in an unforeseeable accident, because if not Krauss looses the inheritance and his position as well. To the position of the next head the care-taking of the estate including Kinzo is bound. Should Kinzo die due to the negligence of Krauss or any of his family members or staff, he would loose everything.
Not necessarily - an autopsy would probably be able to tell if he'd been dead for such a super long time, as opposed to just recently, yes? And it's been, like, 2 whole years. I don't remember the specifics of what Eva and Kyrie said at that time, but Kratsuhi's plan was certainly to say Kinzo had gone missing... you say they need his corpse, but I'd say having his corpse examined would just ruin them. If they're going to have to lie about it, they may as well take the lie with the better odds of success.


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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Like the development of the Rokkenjima resort?
Also don't forget that the island technically doesn't even belong to the Ushiromiya's anymore, so in case he is forced off the island he would at least like to have the corpse close to him, where he can easily move it.
Aye, that is true. Rudolf seemed confident, though, that nothing would ever come of the resort because of it's relatively bad location. And if he were forced off the island, I imagine it's not like getting evicted from an apartment, where you come home to find your stuff on the lawn ... if they know the spot theu buried him under, it wouldn't be unreasonable to go and get it, with Genji and Kanon's help.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
It's also a pretty common thing to do for people who hide a death, even though it is technically a stupid idea. But you feel better if you have close watch over the thing you are hiding instead of tossing it away somewhere where everything could happen to it. And like already said, they need the corpse of Kinzo.
Agreed that Kratsuhi is easily the weakest pair, brain-wise, so they might not think all their plans out to their logical conclusions. However, this isn't just "anywhere" - very, very few people have entire islands to themselves. The worst that would happen to Kinzo's corpse, in an isolated spot in Rokkenjima, buried several feet under, is that a storm might knock it a few inches this way or that. I'm not suggesting they chuck him into the bushes behind the chapel.
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Old 2013-07-29, 08:07   Link #32583
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The bushes behind the chapel are still a safer spot than anywhere in the house. If Krauss's surveyors turned up the hidden mansion (and I can't see why they wouldn't have), putting it there is even safer still.

The one and seemingly only advantage to keeping it in the house is that it makes it harder for a servant to betray them. If Kinzo were buried out in the woods and Kanon knew of it, how can Krauss be sure that Kanon didn't let slip that secret to Eva for money and show her? Since he'd be nowhere near the storage/burial site most of the time, there's no way he could prevent it. At least with the study as a barrier and his office not far away it'd be harder to betray him.

Of course that assumes Krauss never actually leaves the island, as once he does there's always that same prospect unless he brings Kinzo with him. And well... I'm not sure how that would go over. So I guess Natsuhi could just be extra-vigilant since it seems like she never leaves.
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Old 2013-07-29, 10:18   Link #32584
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I have a new game to play, why don't we try to figure out the culprit for the 5th game. We know it's not Natsuhi, and I utterly Deny Black Battler

In lieu of the game, I suggest a Krauss-Culprit for specifically the 5th game! The motive: Assassinating all of the family members(except Jessica and Natsuhi of course)to protect the family.

Erika's Seals are precisely that, her's. The Culprit never used them and frankly are inadmissable as evidence. I'm sorry to burst her bubble, but creating a crime scene doesn't mean one actually exists.

Because of Battler's red argument, the "truth" that Krauss died is hereby implausible.

Along with Natsuhi and Genji, Krauss was the only one in the mansion.

Krauss either used the fake death drug or created a false corpse for Jessica's body, hiding her somewhere(likely her room) while the others are most certainly dead. The existence of one paux-corpse allowed for the validity of Battler's statement.

Just because Genji doesn't exist inside the mansion, doesn't necessarily mean he couldn't have done any illegal activities while walking out of the mansion. He could've been Krauss's accomplice.

For the fifth game, Krauss is Yasu!

Of all of the culprits, Krauss's physique makes him the most plausible(aside from Gohda) for some of the brutal deaths that we've seen from the Umineko series.

Feeling the pressure from the siblings, might've been what pushed Krauss over the edge to commit the murders.

The phone call that Natsuhi received from the man from 19 years ago, may very well have been a former accomplice of Krauss, further blackmailing the family and pushing them into making the decision to murder.
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Old 2013-07-29, 14:06   Link #32585
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Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I have a new game to play, why don't we try to figure out the culprit for the 5th game. We know it's not Natsuhi, and I utterly Deny Black Battler

In lieu of the game, I suggest a Krauss-Culprit for specifically the 5th game! The motive: Assassinating all of the family members(except Jessica and Natsuhi of course)to protect the family.

Erika's Seals are precisely that, her's. The Culprit never used them and frankly are inadmissable as evidence. I'm sorry to burst her bubble, but creating a crime scene doesn't mean one actually exists.

Because of Battler's red argument, the "truth" that Krauss died is hereby implausible.

Along with Natsuhi and Genji, Krauss was the only one in the mansion.

Krauss either used the fake death drug or created a false corpse for Jessica's body, hiding her somewhere(likely her room) while the others are most certainly dead. The existence of one paux-corpse allowed for the validity of Battler's statement.

Just because Genji doesn't exist inside the mansion, doesn't necessarily mean he couldn't have done any illegal activities while walking out of the mansion. He could've been Krauss's accomplice.

For the fifth game, Krauss is Yasu!

Of all of the culprits, Krauss's physique makes him the most plausible(aside from Gohda) for some of the brutal deaths that we've seen from the Umineko series.

Feeling the pressure from the siblings, might've been what pushed Krauss over the edge to commit the murders.

The phone call that Natsuhi received from the man from 19 years ago, may very well have been a former accomplice of Krauss, further blackmailing the family and pushing them into making the decision to murder.
Well, ok...

Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. And he was killed shortly after Natsuhi heard his voice over the phone.

Furthermore there were no indications or "clues" that Krauss had multiple personalities and at that point he was not considered to be "Kinzo" either, as that title was given to Battler.

I don't plan to write any 100-lines walls of text anytime soon...
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Old 2013-07-29, 18:03   Link #32586
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Well, ok...

Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. And he was killed shortly after Natsuhi heard his voice over the phone.

Furthermore there were no indications or "clues" that Krauss had multiple personalities and at that point he was not considered to be "Kinzo" either, as that title was given to Battler.

I don't plan to write any 100-lines walls of text anytime soon...
My apologies, my apologies. But we are in this thread to discuss theories no? So presenting theories, no matter how unlikely is what keeps the conversation alive.

Did anyone verify Krauss's death? If say, Dr. Nanjo or anyone didn't exactly examine his corpse, it's possible he might've been attacked! Let's take George, while Krauss was trying to murder George, George saw an opening and fought back.

Krauss doesn't have to be "Kinzo" to carry out the murders, he just needs a motive and I gave him a damn good one

In this case, any following of the epitath whatsoever(if it even matters at this point) is purely coincidental. I eliminate all fantasy and am turning this into a cold-blooded mystery, where to save every penny a man is committed to murdering almost his entire family.
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Old 2013-07-29, 22:37   Link #32587
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Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
My apologies, my apologies. But we are in this thread to discuss theories no? So presenting theories, no matter how unlikely is what keeps the conversation alive.

Did anyone verify Krauss's death? If say, Dr. Nanjo or anyone didn't exactly examine his corpse, it's possible he might've been attacked! Let's take George, while Krauss was trying to murder George, George saw an opening and fought back.

Krauss doesn't have to be "Kinzo" to carry out the murders, he just needs a motive and I gave him a damn good one

In this case, any following of the epitath whatsoever(if it even matters at this point) is purely coincidental. I eliminate all fantasy and am turning this into a cold-blooded mystery, where to save every penny a man is committed to murdering almost his entire family.
Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. And he was killed shortly after Natsuhi heard his voice over the phone.

This was not a joke. It was stated by Bernkastel herself in the trial of the 5th Episode. So what now? You want to ignore the red truth? If you do, then of course nothing can stop you from making ANY theory... but then you could also say that 1000 ponies fell from the sky that murdered everyone on Rokkenjima...
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Old 2013-07-30, 02:01   Link #32588
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. And he was killed shortly after Natsuhi heard his voice over the phone.

This was not a joke. It was stated by Bernkastel herself in the trial of the 5th Episode. So what now? You want to ignore the red truth? If you do, then of course nothing can stop you from making ANY theory... but then you could also say that 1000 ponies fell from the sky that murdered everyone on Rokkenjima...
I wasn't denying the red truth, but just as Battler indirectly questioned it's validity by asking for Nanjo to verify the corpse, so I too wanted to verify the authencity of this particular red truth.

But I assure you, no matter what theories I bring up, they'll always follow the red truth and I'll never use pieces outside of the game board.

As an example, I will never use the person who phoned Natsuhi as "Culprit X", because "he/she/it" only appeared in the 5th game and in no other games before or after.

I'll accept this red truth and purpose a revision: Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. But for the 5th game, he's an accomplice in the murders.

After the adult conversation, Rosa secretly meets up with Krauss and tells him about her plan to kill all of the siblings to revive Beatrice as described in the epitath. She lies to Krauss, saying that himself, Jessica and Natsuhi would be 3 of the 5 people left alive to go to the Golden Land.

Of course, Krauss could care less for Rosa's belief in Beatrice or black magic, but he does care for eliminating any potential witnesses to Kinzo's body, so he agrees on the condition that Jessica and Natsuhi are unharmed.

From the start of the game, until Lady Bernkastel's proclamation, it's possible for Ushiromiya Krauss to either kill or help with the killings.

Krauss discovered Rosa(or the culprit) killing Jessica and the other cousins. He confronted her, initially survived and then was brutally murdered after the phone call.
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Old 2013-07-30, 11:08   Link #32589
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I'm trying to read your posts to determine whether I can* or should** argue with you about them but all the needless red and blue basically causes my eyes to glaze over and I have no interest in trying to untangle what you're actually trying to say. Any chance of presenting yourself in a somewhat more coherent and less colorful fashion?

* Obviously, I'm a Kanye West-level genius.
** Almost certainly not, but if I'd learned my lesson I'd have left here in 2011.
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Old 2013-07-30, 11:14   Link #32590
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I'm trying to read your posts to determine whether I can* or should** argue with you about them but all the needless red and blue basically causes my eyes to glaze over and I have no interest in trying to untangle what you're actually trying to say. Any chance of presenting yourself in a somewhat more coherent and less colorful fashion?

* Obviously, I'm a Kanye West-level genius.
** Almost certainly not, but if I'd learned my lesson I'd have left here in 2011.
Very well, without any reds or blues then.

-Initial Thesis:
I suggested a possibility of a Krauss-Culprit theory for specifically the 5th game.
Because Battler had denied that Krauss had died with the red text, and denying everyone's alibi but Natsuhi's, I thought I could.

The Chaos Sorcerer(Grey) reaffirmed that Lady Bernkastel made that declaration with the red truth and I've since confirmed.

-Current Thesis:
Even if he isn't the culprit, it's possible that Krauss was an accomplice of the culprit or that he could have killed people during the time Lady Bernkastel hadn't made the declaration(the same solution Battler had for Eva-Beatrice's riddle).

If Genji is Rosa's accomplice, I also argued that just because Genji was "out of the mansion", doesn't necessarily negate any actions he could've done while walking out of the mansion or being in the mansion's vicinity.
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Old 2013-07-30, 11:26   Link #32591
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I haven't been following this discussion at all, but I'm not sure what exactly the point of invoking Krauss as a culprit is for EP5? I'm kind of lost on how that helps to explain anything about the scenario.

If you're a Rosatrice believer, doesn't KNM already have an explanation of EP5 that covers everything reasonably well without invoking any extra culprits? Krauss culprit theory just seems like a pointless overcomplication really.

And I don't know what the part about Genji has to do with anything.
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Old 2013-07-30, 11:27   Link #32592
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Just to get this completely straight:
You are trying to construct a theory that does not rely on the more obvious solution for what reason? If it is just because it's interesting that's great, but I don't know if this is the right place to basically make fanfiction theories...
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Old 2013-07-30, 11:34   Link #32593
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Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
-Current Thesis:
Even if he isn't the culprit, it's possible that Krauss was an accomplice of the culprit or that he could have killed people during the time Lady Bernkastel hadn't made the declaration(the same solution Battler had for Eva-Beatrice's riddle).

If Genji is Rosa's accomplice, I also argued that just because Genji was "out of the mansion", doesn't necessarily negate any actions he could've done while walking out of the mansion or being in the mansion's vicinity.
  • Why is Krauss allowing Natsuhi to be terrorized by the MF19YA? Also, who is the MF19YA out of the group of Rosa, Krauss, and Genji? What is the point of doing anything to Natsuhi if Krauss is an accomplice? What was Krauss's motive for helping anyone?
  • What was the point of the letter or the story about a letter existing, whether or not it actually did? Who would have to be complicit in this story? Why would some of those apparent non-accomplices be involved?
  • Why didn't Hideyoshi recognize the person he supposedly saw in the bedroom who "killed" him?
  • If Battler solved the epitaph, what was anyone's motive to kill anyone? Especially given that anyone in the cousins' room would have more motive to murder Battler (who was sleeping all night, as Erika confirmed) than the other occupants of the room? Why wasn't he killed, or why did nobody suggest he was responsible (aside from Erika confirming his alibi)?
  • What exactly was Erika doing here in general? Who was she working with, if anybody? If she was focusing on Natsuhi, why? Why take steps to frame Natsuhi ahead of time for a detective nobody even knew was coming?
  • Why did Eva take steps to establish Genji's alibi? Why didn't Genji do anything that night (he wouldn't be aware of the seal until he'd broken it)?
  • The bodies never moved after they died. Which means everyone presumably left the cousins' room of their own volition. Where were they going, under whose authority or idea, and why?
  • What exactly makes you believe that anyone was actually murdered in ep5?
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Old 2013-07-30, 13:01   Link #32594
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Just to get this completely straight:
You are trying to construct a theory that does not rely on the more obvious solution for what reason? If it is just because it's interesting that's great, but I don't know if this is the right place to basically make fanfiction theories...
Because if we just treat everything as solved, then we'll have absolutely nothing to talk about.

From Battler:

In this closed off world, multiple truths can exist.

So let's ponder those multiple truths .
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Old 2013-07-30, 13:06   Link #32595
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I'd rather speculate about R-Prime, but then again we did that for quite a while and still didn't reach a consensus about the end results (e.g. amount of survivors). Since it is like that it is outright impossible to figure out what really happened on Rokkenjima these 2 days...
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Old 2013-07-30, 13:25   Link #32596
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Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
In this closed off world, multiple truths can exist.

So let's ponder those multiple truths .
But that does not necessarily mean that truth is not at the same time fixed.
The closed off world he was talking about was the entirety of the Rokkenjima incident. EP5 for example is one of these "fragments", a possible truth that has absolutely identical value as long as no definite authority, like a Word of God (in Umineko's case this is the Red Truth), fixes something to a given point. It is true that even if such a definite prove arises you can counter it with a strong believe and conviction that becomes Golden Truth.
In the case of EP5 we have the truth that Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. We know even more precisely that he was already dead a while, during the point of the trial. He was killed right after the phone call with Natsuhi.
To be more precise it is very likely that Ushiromiya Krauss was the only one who was actually murdered in EP5.

If you want to create a new version of the events, a new truth among the multiple possibilities, then you would have to create one yourself.

Only due to the fact that there is the idea of Red Truth can we be limited to an actual state of wavefunction collapse, or in Umineko's case the actual event of Schrödinger's catbox being opened. But as we are living in a world of humans where we can doubt everything, we are allowed to even doubt things that could be trusted and thus exist in a state of the perfect many-worlds interpretation.
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Old 2013-07-30, 13:34   Link #32597
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How is that line phrased in Japanese? The one about Krauss being killed, I mean.
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I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
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This story is a redacted confession.

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Old 2013-07-30, 13:46   Link #32598
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How is that line phrased in Japanese? The one about Krauss being killed, I mean.
右代宮蔵臼は犯人ではない。そしてとっくに殺されてるわ。あんたに電話で声を聞かせた直後にね ?
For once it actually doesn't leave much wiggle room. Especially with words like とっくに and 直後
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Old 2013-07-30, 14:22   Link #32599
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How would you interpret "殺さ?" That is, is there a particular agency associated with this verb?

Mostly what I'm wondering is, can it apply to suicide. That is, could it be said that a person "was killed [by themselves]," or does it by nature of its usage constitute homicide by another actor?

The only reason I bring this up is that Krauss is the only person spoken of in ep5 as affirmatively killed, as in something caused him to directly die. Every mention of "murder" is in the negative (soandso did not/could not commit murder), and every other mention of corpses or death status is clinical (i.e. doesn't explain how or why someone is dead) and temporally-unanchored. Krauss is the only person reported to have had his life or death status actually altered at a particular specified time.

EDIT: It's kind of annoying how little distinction Japanese seem to have culturally between killing, homicide, and murder. And it reflects poorly in the translation to use words that mean very different things to an English-reading audience than the original Japanese-reading audience (i.e. the use of two different words could just be for stylistic variety while completely changing the meaning if transliterated).
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I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
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Old 2013-07-30, 14:30   Link #32600
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
  • Why is Krauss allowing Natsuhi to be terrorized by the MF19YA? Also, who is the MF19YA out of the group of Rosa, Krauss, and Genji? What is the point of doing anything to Natsuhi if Krauss is an accomplice? What was Krauss's motive for helping anyone?
  • What was the point of the letter or the story about a letter existing, whether or not it actually did? Who would have to be complicit in this story? Why would some of those apparent non-accomplices be involved?
  • Why didn't Hideyoshi recognize the person he supposedly saw in the bedroom who "killed" him?
  • If Battler solved the epitaph, what was anyone's motive to kill anyone? Especially given that anyone in the cousins' room would have more motive to murder Battler (who was sleeping all night, as Erika confirmed) than the other occupants of the room? Why wasn't he killed, or why did nobody suggest he was responsible (aside from Erika confirming his alibi)?
  • What exactly was Erika doing here in general? Who was she working with, if anybody? If she was focusing on Natsuhi, why? Why take steps to frame Natsuhi ahead of time for a detective nobody even knew was coming?
  • Why did Eva take steps to establish Genji's alibi? Why didn't Genji do anything that night (he wouldn't be aware of the seal until he'd broken it)?
  • The bodies never moved after they died. Which means everyone presumably left the cousins' room of their own volition. Where were they going, under whose authority or idea, and why?
  • What exactly makes you believe that anyone was actually murdered in ep5?
1)Whoever said the man from 19 years ago had to be among the 3 people in the mansion? It's a phone call after all. Was it confirmed to be strictly from the other house phone? If it wasn't, it could've been anyone with the Ushiromiya's number.

It was said to be Yasu, but according to Knox's theory we can't accept a character that wasn't brought to the forefront of the beginning of the story. In fact, this has absolutely nothing to do with whether the corpses were murdered or who is the culprit in the game.

Let's treat the "man" as the non existence he is, shall we? He could've been a fragment of Natsuhi's imagination like Kinzo


Not only could "he" have been a fragment of her imagination, but the entire conversation could have as well.

2)Krauss might have been an accomplice, but mainly due to his own ambitions. Does he care what Yasu/it/the culprit thinks? The culprit's targeting Natsuhi simply happens to be an unfortunate consequence, but the main objective for Krauss to eliminate his siblings still remains.

3)Not sure how the letter refutes a Krauss-Culprit theory, but using the 4th game as a template then whoever was near the table or wherever the note was placed is clearly the one who put it there.

OR

There could've been some indirect method of placing the letter there, allowing for a person to be at "Place X" to establish an alibi when in fact they were the ones who wrote/placed the note at the location.


4) The Culprit was wearing a disguise when he attacked Hideyoshi. That simple, no Yasu's needed. No Character X's.

Knox's 10th can't be invoked here because The culprit isn't disguising himself as "another character", the culprit is masking his identity period.

5) Here I make the suggestion that Rosa has fallen for Battler. I can argue that if Rosa=Beatrice, then Rosa=Yasu. If Yasu's character is genderless, then it's possible for a female voice to fit him and vice versa. So even if it were a "softer voice", I'll make the argument that Rosa made that call. Obviously it can't be Krauss and Genji is so improbable as to be laughable.

Of course, that's suggesting the call ever actually happened in the first place. Or that the baby itself ever actually existed .

Back to point: If Rosa fell for Battler, she might have felt compassion towards Battler, as we know wanting Battler to understand her(Beatrice).

Whereas the other cousins? Why does she care?

6) Furudo Erika is merely nothing more than Lady Bernkastel's piece. I'll argue in real life terms however, that she may have been representative of Eva's antagonism towards Natsuhi. Remember that it was Eva who also helped Erika with the seals.

And if Erika is a personification of Eva's(not necessarily a split personality like Eva-Beatrice. But more a representative of Eva's stance towards Natsuhi in particular) then we know that whether a "detective" came or not is irrelevant. All Erika/Eva cared about was Natsuhi's implication, humiliation and suffering.

7) Battler's claim that the crime could've happened after 24:00 allows for anyone(Genji included) to be a possible accomplice. Even if Genji isn't an accomplice, he may have unwittingly helped the culprit.


8) We don't even know where the corpses were "moved" to. But here's a theory: George suggested that the cousins should eat a midnight snack or something and they went into the kitchen.


9) The implausibility that there was some "fake murder" game as Yasu calls it. Seriously? And that it was "hi-jacked" to be a murder? Sorry, this doesn't work out as fantasy or as mystery, it works out as stupid. Who would want to have a "fake murder" game to begin with?

Some of the corpses there are paux corpses, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few are actually murdered. As for why, here's a theory:

It could be that Rosa, feeling as though Beatrice was betrayed due to the epitath not being solved wanted to go out with a bang anyway. Even though Erika and Battler solved the epitath, in no way was Battler made aware of the bomb on Kuwadorian.
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