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Old 2013-12-12, 20:10   Link #33641
ALPHA-Beatrice
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I just thought of yet another interesting theory.

If the messaged bottles are forgeries, then Rokkenjima itself is also a forgery within Umineko.

After all, Kinzo was dead at the start of all games, Kanon's clearly non existent and Furudo Erika doesn't exist either. This implies that we can't trust the veracity of anything we see, forget Prime..

I'm saying we can't trust squat period
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Old 2013-12-12, 20:25   Link #33642
Leafsnail
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You're correct, Rokkenjima is not a real island. None of the characters actually exist.

I think part of the point being made in episodes 5 and 6 was that "the absolute truth" can still be misleading, and even if you can't take them at face value the more metaphorical stuff carries more genuine meaning.

e: I've been rereading episode 1, and it now seems obvious to me that Shannon "died" at the first twilight so she wouldn't have to give an answer to George's engagement request. Eva and Hideyoshi would probably be willing to help with that plan. This theory is mainly within the "every death in Legend and Turn are fake" framework though.

I've been enjoying the reread, it's basically an entirely different story now that I know the answers. In retrospect a lot of things are obvious ("Jesus someone stop Battler from staring at those not-dead people, he'll notice!").
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Old 2013-12-12, 21:27   Link #33643
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Originally Posted by jjblue1 View Post
Of course if you were to check them well you'l probably realize they aren't faking it but at first you'll be fooled because that's what you want to believe. That they're just faking.
Battler and Natsuhi are most likely targets of the "prank" and they take it as murders anyway. Hideyoshi is two steps away from the first corpse and the corpses are mutilated beyond any chance of imitation. Pictures of deformed jaws and missing flesh are quite convincing. This makes him a culprit in cahoots with Kanon (how on Earth was it possible??) or totally blind (but he “sees” Sannon’s corpse and the ring).
Nanjo is a problem. He must be involved into conspiracy at least with one group because they need his evaluation of the "bodies". But! Nanjo MUST know these are REAL dead bodies; he is a doctor after all. If he is a part of a team he should have started yelling right away that this is not a joke anymore. So, he must be a conspirator and he can't be at the same time. Am I missing something?

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Do you remember that scene in EP2 where all the parents are "acknowledging" beatrice? Where they all say "I acknowledge it"?
Uh, because they ACCEPT someone as "Beatrice" of cause. The thing is it's most likely not Kinzo's Beatrice. I think so at least.
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Old 2013-12-12, 21:46   Link #33644
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Regardless, no matter what traumatic experience it could be for all of the people involved I do not see a reason for servants to cover up/participate in the murders and to die at the end (except for the money but again it’s soooo boring).
Any of this does not answer a question of how a family member except for Natsuhi and Krauss could make any of servants lying (e.g. about Sannon’s corpse in Ep.1).
Maybe you should try thinking outside of the frame of what is in for them in terms of actual palpable gains. What kind of relationship do the servants have to "Beatrice" and to the people who are Beatrice if she is not pretending to be a witch.

Maybe the plan started as wanting to stage a fake murder mystery, but what further gains could drive people not to unveil anything, even if they assume "Beatrice" has started killing people.
Genji and Kumasawa are servants to the house for decades and at least Genji never seems to have been in it for the money. Kumasawa is often described as motherly.
And Nanjo, he had a very interesting line during EP3, "No, don't...I have a sick grandchild...".
Remember how the final sentences of the main game of EP2 said that, besides Kinzo and Maria getting their wish, Genji was granted to finally rest in peace?

Money is a powerful incentive, but I agree with you that it is unlikely to be the one and only way to convince a person. There must be more, but if you look through the story you might understand why people might feel an indebtedness that compels them to ply along even if their consciousness screams against it.
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Old 2013-12-13, 03:48   Link #33645
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Originally Posted by Leafsnail View Post
You're correct, Rokkenjima is not a real island. None of the characters actually exist.
Not what I meant, I'll rephrase my blue.

Everything, and I mean literally everything happened in Yasu's head

Period, the existence of Rokkenjima, the murders. Whether there was even an Island at all. That was my theory.

Of course the game Umineko exists in IRL Fiction. But I'm saying that Umineko exists in 'Game Fiction' if that makes sense.
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Old 2013-12-13, 04:02   Link #33646
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Then who is Yasu? Because she as a person only exists in the context of Rokkenjima and it's legacy. "Rokkenjima doesn't exist, it only exists in Yasu's head" is ontologically meaningless.
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Old 2013-12-13, 04:58   Link #33647
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Did any of us ever actually consider the implication behind Chiester 556 being damaged and dying?

How many Winchester rifles are actually in use during the Episodes where all of them are distributed and couldn't this not only refer to the bunny doll Rosa smashed, but also extend to one of the guns basically being meaningless or not fully functional? Would this even change anything?
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Old 2013-12-13, 12:32   Link #33648
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Yeah, I'm pretty sure one of the rifles is nonfunctioning. That's probably the one Yasu gives to Natsuhi in Legend and Rosa in Turn - that's how Yasu was able to win the duel with Natsuhi at the end of Legend. I can't really remember who has guns in episode 3, but they certainly aren't all fired.

Incidentally, I've been having another go at episode 4. My rough interpretation so far is:
- Goldsmith = Yasu revealed as heir
- The Chiesters could represent some of the parents working with Yasu (I'd say Kyrie, Rudolf, Krauss since they were probably recruited). Negotiations failed, so they instead threatened everyone with guns to go along with their plan.
- Things went horribly wrong in several ways. Rosa didn't react well to the original threat, and Krauss shot her when she jumped at him (Chiester 00/Rosa scene). George reacted badly to Yasu telling him the truth, and physically threatened her (Gaap/George scene). Jessica misinterpreted the situation and got into a fight with Genji (Ronove/Jessica scene). Yasu's own team (shown in the Kyrie/Krauss vs Virgilia/Goats scene) got into an argument and ended up coming to blows.
- I'm still not sure on who actually did the killing. If 410/45 are Rudolf/Kyrie then it'd be mostly them, perhaps trying to deal with the growing chaos all over the island. Yasu may have ended up shooting George in self-defense, which would have caused enough friction with Eva.
- At the end Yasu messed with the scene to make it look like a witch might have done it. She got Kyrie to help (willingly or not) by making the phonecall. She then shot herself, letting the gun fall down the well.

I'll probably come up with something better once I've reread it.
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Old 2013-12-13, 14:01   Link #33649
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Maybe you should try thinking outside of the frame of what is in for them in terms of actual palpable gains. What kind of relationship do the servants have to "Beatrice" and to the people who are Beatrice if she is not pretending to be a witch.

Maybe the plan started as wanting to stage a fake murder mystery, but what further gains could drive people not to unveil anything, even if they assume "Beatrice" has started killing people.
Genji and Kumasawa are servants to the house for decades and at least Genji never seems to have been in it for the money. Kumasawa is often described as motherly.
And Nanjo, he had a very interesting line during EP3, "No, don't...I have a sick grandchild...".
Remember how the final sentences of the main game of EP2 said that, besides Kinzo and Maria getting their wish, Genji was granted to finally rest in peace?

Money is a powerful incentive, but I agree with you that it is unlikely to be the one and only way to convince a person. There must be more, but if you look through the story you might understand why people might feel an indebtedness that compels them to ply along even if their consciousness screams against it.
Thank you for the leads. I will try to plow for clues through the first episodes again. I am totally blank on Genji's motives besides a survant/father figure. Kumasawa is indeed a mother figure (hello Virgilia). Gohda looks to be an outsider to a large extent but I am not sure. Nanjo is a puzzle anyway: instead of revealing the prank to Natsuhi and getting money from her he actually goes for covering up the murders. So much for a doctor. Regarding loyalty and parental love of the servants, none of it could be a reason good enough to help murdering innocent people (or at least people not guilty in a capital crime).
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Old 2013-12-13, 17:39   Link #33650
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Originally Posted by passer_by View Post
Battler and Natsuhi are most likely targets of the "prank" and they take it as murders anyway. Hideyoshi is two steps away from the first corpse and the corpses are mutilated beyond any chance of imitation. Pictures of deformed jaws and missing flesh are quite convincing. This makes him a culprit in cahoots with Kanon (how on Earth was it possible??) or totally blind (but he “sees” Sannon’s corpse and the ring).
Nanjo is a problem. He must be involved into conspiracy at least with one group because they need his evaluation of the "bodies". But! Nanjo MUST know these are REAL dead bodies; he is a doctor after all. If he is a part of a team he should have started yelling right away that this is not a joke anymore. So, he must be a conspirator and he can't be at the same time. Am I missing something?
You've to remember the culprit might claim he used Kinzo's gold to buy realistic fake corpses so his accomplices won't really give them a good look and realize that no, they aren't made of plastic.
Nanjo likely knows it's no joke but he's likely seriously blackmailed so that he doesn't dare to voice out the truth.
Nanjo has plenty of things for which he can be blackmailed, starting for how he's covering up for Kinzo's death, which I think might cost him the profession (and there are other things but I won't spoiler you) and considering he has a sick grandaughter he might not afford the luxury. Probably he was promised he wouldn't be involved or something.
The servants also have some dark secrets in a way.
Alternatively you can assume he's really old, his sight is failing and considering that people missing half their head are surely dead, he didn't really have to knelt down and perform an examination, which might have lead him to assume they were dummies.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
Did any of us ever actually consider the implication behind Chiester 556 being damaged and dying?

How many Winchester rifles are actually in use during the Episodes where all of them are distributed and couldn't this not only refer to the bunny doll Rosa smashed, but also extend to one of the guns basically being meaningless or not fully functional? Would this even change anything?
It's an interesting point and it can really be a hint to Natsuhi and Rosa's gun not working.

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Originally Posted by Leafsnail View Post
Yeah, I'm pretty sure one of the rifles is nonfunctioning. That's probably the one Yasu gives to Natsuhi in Legend and Rosa in Turn - that's how Yasu was able to win the duel with Natsuhi at the end of Legend. I can't really remember who has guns in episode 3, but they certainly aren't all fired.

Incidentally, I've been having another go at episode 4. My rough interpretation so far is:
- Goldsmith = Yasu revealed as heir
- The Chiesters could represent some of the parents working with Yasu (I'd say Kyrie, Rudolf, Krauss since they were probably recruited). Negotiations failed, so they instead threatened everyone with guns to go along with their plan.
- Things went horribly wrong in several ways. Rosa didn't react well to the original threat, and Krauss shot her when she jumped at him (Chiester 00/Rosa scene). George reacted badly to Yasu telling him the truth, and physically threatened her (Gaap/George scene). Jessica misinterpreted the situation and got into a fight with Genji (Ronove/Jessica scene). Yasu's own team (shown in the Kyrie/Krauss vs Virgilia/Goats scene) got into an argument and ended up coming to blows.
- I'm still not sure on who actually did the killing. If 410/45 are Rudolf/Kyrie then it'd be mostly them, perhaps trying to deal with the growing chaos all over the island. Yasu may have ended up shooting George in self-defense, which would have caused enough friction with Eva.
- At the end Yasu messed with the scene to make it look like a witch might have done it. She got Kyrie to help (willingly or not) by making the phonecall. She then shot herself, letting the gun fall down the well.

I'll probably come up with something better once I've reread it.
I think Ep 3 is probably the episode in which the accomplices didn't behave according to the plan.
We know from Our Confession that 'to divide the two who're close' it wasn't necessary to kill Maria and in the magic scene Maria begged Beatrice to revive her mama so I think Maria turned against Beato.

Eva seems in conflict with Eva Beatrice, which might represent a conflict with Yasu. She was probably promised the headship if she were to do something but all of sudden people are dying around her and she suspects the one who promised her such thing so that when Battler accuses her she answers she's the culprit.
Jessica jumped on Eva, ending up blinded, which probably wasn't part of the plan.
Kyrie and Rudolf might have been suspicious of Hideyoshi and dragged him out to question him so Yasu killed them and then him when he opposed to what she did.

Even Nanjo seems to have second thoughts here.

Considering Ep 3 was written by Tohya this can imply that really things took the wrong turn on the island.
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Old 2013-12-13, 19:41   Link #33651
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Episode 4 was also written by Tohya, wasn't it? While it's harder to tell due to how little Battler directly witnesses I think it's still clear that Yasu's plan went horribly wrong in that one too.

I guess episodes 3 and 4 are kindof telling us that not only did the plan go wrong, but also that the plan would inevitably go wrong and Yasu's stories were naive. In game 4 in particular we see all four servants (assuming Yasu = Gaap, Ronove = Genji, Virgilia = Kumasawa, Goats = Gohda) engaged in fights with members of the Ushiromiya family and an extremely messy crimescene.
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Old 2013-12-13, 19:57   Link #33652
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Episode 4 was also written by Tohya, wasn't it? While it's harder to tell due to how little Battler directly witnesses I think it's still clear that Yasu's plan went horribly wrong in that one too.

I guess episodes 3 and 4 are kindof telling us that not only did the plan go wrong, but also that the plan would inevitably go wrong and Yasu's stories were naive. In game 4 in particular we see all four servants (assuming Yasu = Gaap, Ronove = Genji, Virgilia = Kumasawa, Goats = Gohda) engaged in fights with members of the Ushiromiya family and an extremely messy crimescene.
Taking this further, we could suppose the time where Kanon "died" is the exact same time where Jessica died and the moment Shannon (was shown) to die was the moment where George died, i.e. Jessica died first and immidietly after George died. The "fight scenes" of George and Jessica themselves were the intended murder mysteries with no real killings, but the "long range kills" from the Chiesters represent the real murderer(s) killing Jessica and shortly after George. As they were far away from each other, both died in a timeframe of 5-10 seconds, and because there were two Chiesters who shot (at least as far as I can remember), there were probably at least two people who did commited the real murders. This interpretation seems very similar to the events of the EP7 tea party.

Who knows? Maybe the "goat fight scene" was Kumasawa's and Gohda's attempt to bribe Krauss (in the name of the head of the family of course), but it failed The "Death Flags" were possibly Gohda's lack of diplomatic skills or something like that.
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Old 2013-12-13, 20:19   Link #33653
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Originally Posted by Leafsnail View Post
Episode 4 was also written by Tohya, wasn't it? While it's harder to tell due to how little Battler directly witnesses I think it's still clear that Yasu's plan went horribly wrong in that one too.

I guess episodes 3 and 4 are kindof telling us that not only did the plan go wrong, but also that the plan would inevitably go wrong and Yasu's stories were naive. In game 4 in particular we see all four servants (assuming Yasu = Gaap, Ronove = Genji, Virgilia = Kumasawa, Goats = Gohda) engaged in fights with members of the Ushiromiya family and an extremely messy crimescene.
Yes, that too.

Well, if we assume that Yasu in the beginning wrote them merely for fun we know that she might have felt that PieceYasu was protected by the plot itself. In short, in game 1 someone could have gone and check if Shannon was really there but Yasu was in charge of the plot so she knew no one would go there.
In real life though you aren't in charge of other people's decisions who can take an unpredictable turn even when you came to an agreement with them previously.
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Old 2013-12-14, 04:38   Link #33654
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What this story's taught me, and Will pointed out that we normally go: Who dunnit, how dunnit and why dunnit?

But it's the opposite. We should first ask: Why dunnit, how dunnit and only then can we figure out the who dunnit.

I think I'll play the first Four Games again. I don't think the Fragments are completely fabricated.

As such I'll debunk my own theory above.

The Book of Single Truth was announced in Red. That book is Eva's Diary and contained information about Rokkenjima. So in the world of Umineko, Rokkenjima is a reality.

Of course we can't read it, but by Ryukishi stating that in Red, he reaffirmed there was meaning in playing the games.
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Old 2013-12-14, 05:35   Link #33655
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If the Chiesters are really metaphorical representations of the Winchesters, why couldn't they kill Battler then? After all something like "Endless Nine" doesn't exist in reality. But why could Eva shoot Battler after that without any problems? Maybe because the body of Ushiromiya Battler cannot be destroyed?
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Old 2013-12-14, 06:02   Link #33656
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Battler has an objective viewpoint in Yasu's stories, so he can't be killed by a metaphor. He just gets shot with a gun.
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Old 2013-12-14, 14:05   Link #33657
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
If the Chiesters are really metaphorical representations of the Winchesters, why couldn't they kill Battler then? After all something like "Endless Nine" doesn't exist in reality. But why could Eva shoot Battler after that without any problems? Maybe because the body of Ushiromiya Battler cannot be destroyed?
It was essentially the equivalent of a bunch of kids going "Pew pew pew, I got you" and he was an adult going "Screw off, I'm not playing."
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Old 2013-12-14, 15:30   Link #33658
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
If the Chiesters are really metaphorical representations of the Winchesters, why couldn't they kill Battler then? After all something like "Endless Nine" doesn't exist in reality. But why could Eva shoot Battler after that without any problems? Maybe because the body of Ushiromiya Battler cannot be destroyed?
Maybe because it's a red truth that on Rokkenjima Prime Battler was shot but not killed... or that on Rokkenjima Prime Battler someone tried to shot him but couldn't or even more simple Beatrice/Yasu would never be able to kill Battler with her bare hands... in fact the task is always left to the bomb.

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Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
What this story's taught me, and Will pointed out that we normally go: Who dunnit, how dunnit and why dunnit?

But it's the opposite. We should first ask: Why dunnit, how dunnit and only then can we figure out the who dunnit.

I think I'll play the first Four Games again. I don't think the Fragments are completely fabricated.

As such I'll debunk my own theory above.

The Book of Single Truth was announced in Red. That book is Eva's Diary and contained information about Rokkenjima. So in the world of Umineko, Rokkenjima is a reality.

Of course we can't read it, but by Ryukishi stating that in Red, he reaffirmed there was meaning in playing the games.
I think that's more of a hint that the future we're seeing might be also a tale/fantasy. Which would make Ange's magic choice also a fantasy as she spoke of the Hachijo planning to show up Eva's diary but as in that reality Ikuko could talk using red truth, that reality was just a tale and not Prime...

That or there's a huge mess in what's Prime and what's not in Umineko... okay, probably the latter.
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Old 2013-12-14, 17:08   Link #33659
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It was essentially the equivalent of a bunch of kids going "Pew pew pew, I got you" and he was an adult going "Screw off, I'm not playing."
It'd be pretty ironic if Battler killed the first person in misguided self-defense.
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Old 2013-12-14, 18:22   Link #33660
GreyZone
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Maybe because it's a red truth that on Rokkenjima Prime Battler was shot but not killed...
This has always been on my mind. The "brain damage" could have been caused by a non-fatal gunshot.

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or that on Rokkenjima Prime Battler someone tried to shot him but couldn't
Well supposedly there is at least one Winchester full of blanks...

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or even more simple Beatrice/Yasu would never be able to kill Battler with her bare hands... in fact the task is always left to the bomb.
At least in the games that seems to be the intention, but does seemingly not always work out as intented, as seen in EP3 where Battler is shot by Eva, before the bomb explodes.
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