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Old 2009-12-01, 05:40   Link #3781
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
According to the Episode 5 tea party, they did belong to Kinzo previously, and he's had them for years. They're just ugly paperweights he picked up somewhere.
He picked them up in the States, and for ugly paperweights, they're awful sharp.

Of course, using things that look like ritual murder weapons as paperweights seems perfectly in-character for Kinzo.

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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Personally, I don't believe he could be the culprit behind most of the death in EP3 (to consider he killed Kyrie, Hideyoshi, Rudolf, George...) , considering his old age, fitness and lack of motivation.
Unless Kyrie shot Rudolf and Hideyoshi, or Hideyoshi shot Rudolf and Kyrie killed him in retaliation... there's really no one who had the opportunity to do it but Nanjo. (Eva wouldn't have killed Hideyoshi, for one.)

Furthermore, he's about the only person who could have killed the first twilight victims... and while I can buy Eva killing Rosa by accident, I don't see her killing Maria, least of all by strangling her. Hell, that's more something Rosa would do, as I seem to remember Battler pointing out.

There's a variety of ways you can construct Ep3 sans Nanjo, but he's without supervision for the vast majority of the game, making it easy to pin the crimes on him.

Motive? I don't need one, we know nothing about Nanjo. He could be an utter psychopath for all we know.

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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
And that put question on who killed him at last, as he would definitely checked closely whether the people he staked were really dead (so many way to check right? iris contraction, pulse, etc)
I actually have an answer for this:

Nanjo arrives with the rest of the survivors (minus Krauss and Natsuhi) to the entrance hall, where the bodies of the three victims lie. One of them (most likely Kyrie, due to the nature of her injuries) is still alive, but unconscious and barely breathing.

Kyrie knows that Nanjo shot her in the chest; if Nanjo were to tell everyone that she's still alive, he'd be forced to resuscitate her, and Kyrie being the sort of person she is, would immediately tell everyone that the nice doctor who just saved her life was the one who tried to kill her.

It'd be better for him to just tell everyone that she's dead and let her continue to bleed out. With an injury like that, she'll be gone in a couple hours anyway if she doesn't receive, haha, medical attention.

Too bad for Nanjo that he underestimated how tough Kyrie was. She shot him in the head, right in front of the blinded Jessica, before removing her stake and ultimately perishing.

Eva probably knows this, as she may have taken the stake herself, (which may be why Ange has it in the first place, but I need to read Ep4 again) but was too insane at the time for it to really register.

How's that?
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Old 2009-12-01, 08:13   Link #3782
ijriims
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For the 1st twilight of EP3, my idea is that one of the servants killed all the others in different places, then he was killed by the culprit in the appointed place.

Only the boiler room contained a backdoor which was not lockable at all.

So first the culprit entered the VIP room and put the boiler room's key in and locked the room. (Genji's body)

2. The culprit entered the waiting room and put the VIP room's key in and locked the room. (Gohda's body)

3.The culprit entered the guestroom in 2F and put the waiting room's key in and locked the room. (Kumasawa's body)

4.The culprit entered the parlor and put the guestroom's key in and locked the room. (Shannon's body)

5.The culprit entered the chapel and put the parlor's key in and locked the chapel. (Kanon's body)

6.Finally the culprit put the key of chapel into the boiler room through the backdoor. (Kinzo's body)

It should be true that the killer servant has painted the magic circles on all the doors beforehand. Or Maria painted them?

If one of the windows in the parlor were not locked, then the parlor was not a closed room at all. From the above sequence, this time the culprit started locking the chapel, then boiler and then VIP room, etc. In this case, the killer servants could have locked the chapel first and so the culprit did not need to go to the chapel to lock it.

In this case, locking all the remaining doors should be only within a few minutes' time as all the rooms were within the mansion. And so every adult could still be the culprit.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Consider the case that Kyrie called Hideyoshi because she found the cigarette, it was highly likely that Hideyoshi tried to protect Eva by shooting Kyrie and Rudolf.

The killing of Maria should be due to fear, probably Eva just wanted to talk with Rosa about the disclosure of the gold. Then Eva and Rosa got into quarral and then Eva accidentally killed Rosa. Maria was shocked by it and cried over her mother's body. Eva tried to quell Maria in fear that someone might come over. She again unintentionally straggled her in the process.

I agreed that Eva could not intentionally kill any of her siblings or the cousins. But when in deep fear or despair, she snapped.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-01 at 08:25.
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Old 2009-12-01, 09:48   Link #3783
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One more thing pointing to the fact that ep3 went wrong is how Battler is killed at the 9th twilight in that arc, while in the others, he goes missing on the 10th. Dunno if anyone pointed that out before.

Also, I think that the murders are heavily based on who finds the gold in each arc (and I DO believe someone does find the gold in every arc). During the night between the 4th and the 5th when everyone got weak alibies is a good time to find the gold.

If you look at the 5th arc, when Battler found the gold, the family was divided into factions. One faction who supported Battler (his immediate family) and one who didn't support him which was Krauss' faction. After the first twilight, both Krauss and Jessica died and Natsuhi was being blamed for the murders. This would eliminate the whole Krauss faction right? And if you look at the other victims and the second twilight, the other siblings are being eliminated too... which means that the survivors would be the core members of the Battler faction (Rudolf, Kyrie, Battler).

The point is that the murderer changes depending on who finds the gold, but the one to find the gold is not necessary the one who kills and does not necessarily want it to happen, but the one who discovers the gold lives until the end or very close to the end.

Also something interesting if someone DOES find the gold in every arc. When the grown ups find the gold, the siblings die early. When no one finds the gold the first night, the servants die and when a cousin finds the gold, the other cousins are the primary targets.

(Btw, the gold is shown to be found in the 3rd and the 5th arc. Also it is highly likely that it was found in the second thus making the ending scroll of "No one solved the riddle before the time ran out" unreliable. The existence of the gold is known to Natsuhi in the first arc and she does indeed live until the end. In the fourth arc, someone DID recognize an Ushiromiya Kinzo which probably means that a person found the gold and inherited the headship. This was recognized by everyone.)

EDIT: Fun fact: I joked around on google translate with this theory and managed to get "summer had been the cause of the murder"... So there you have the true culprit ^^

Last edited by Geekodot; 2009-12-01 at 11:48.
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Old 2009-12-01, 12:16   Link #3784
Marion
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Who's to say it isn't ep3 1998 again? We don't know when Ange supposedly died in 1998. Maybe what we thought happened to her didn't. Maybe there was a kakera very similar to that of ep3's where an Ange lived, and it continues from that one. Maybe the 1998 we saw wasn't from ep3 at all.

The backgrounds in the Juuza/Ange screenshots are clearly Kuwadorian. Which means they're on Rokkenjima and they're at Kuwadorian. Where they were going before. It seems likely the Ange that would be there would be in similar or identical conditions to the one we saw before, so for all practical purposes she might as well be "that" Ange.

Unless he pulls a real fast one on us.
Spoiler for EP 6 screencaps:
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Old 2009-12-01, 12:34   Link #3785
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Oops, sorry about the Mammon mistake! Just reread it and you're absolutely right about the stake Dx

I haven't followed up on the details of episode 5 aside from the general scheme of things so I wasn't sure about the victim-list in episode 5...but I guess that's a definite pattern breaker :/

But as for finding the gold and order of deaths - I don't think the act of finding the cold would be the crucial factor in the randomization (at least in the early stages, if it is random)... I think the "flag" of sorts, or "trigger," would be the small details that change in the early parts of the games, like Rosa being more attentive to Maria, enough so that she would be at the scene early enough to intercept Maria's letter.

In Episodes 1 and 5 I think the critical flag is Natsuhi's visit to Kinzo's room when Eva pushes her too far. Jessica giving her the scorpio charm could also be a possible flag. In episode 3, it's probably Eva's observation of Shannon and George's relationship, and in episode 4, I think a possible flag could be Kyrie's deduction forcing Krauss and Natsuhi to visit Kinzo.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:04   Link #3786
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Originally Posted by Geekodot View Post
If you look at the 5th arc, when Battler found the gold, the family was divided into factions. One faction who supported Battler (his immediate family) and one who didn't support him which was Krauss' faction. After the first twilight, both Krauss and Jessica died and Natsuhi was being blamed for the murders. This would eliminate the whole Krauss faction right? And if you look at the other victims and the second twilight, the other siblings are being eliminated too... which means that the survivors would be the core members of the Battler faction (Rudolf, Kyrie, Battler).
I can't understand why Erika doesn't think about this. Battler finds the gold. Battler is reluctantly agreed to be the next head by the other adults at the conference, even though they clearly don't like the idea.

The next morning everyone but Battler dies (at least as far as Erika knows), Rosa is killed, Krauss vanishes, and Hideyoshi is attacked. Battler's family is completely untouched. If I were Erika I'd be suspicious either that Rudolf and Kyrie did it, or that someone was trying to frame Battler's family. Yet she blames Natsuhi, who I do not think is rational enough to elaborately frame Rudolf and Kyrie (and Erika doesn't really suggest she is the culprit for that reason).

This is a remarkably important thing for a "detective" to miss. What are Kyrie and Rudolf's alibis after the conference and in the morning?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kit View Post
But as for finding the gold and order of deaths - I don't think the act of finding the cold would be the crucial factor in the randomization (at least in the early stages, if it is random)... I think the "flag" of sorts, or "trigger," would be the small details that change in the early parts of the games, like Rosa being more attentive to Maria, enough so that she would be at the scene early enough to intercept Maria's letter.

In Episodes 1 and 5 I think the critical flag is Natsuhi's visit to Kinzo's room when Eva pushes her too far. Jessica giving her the scorpio charm could also be a possible flag. In episode 3, it's probably Eva's observation of Shannon and George's relationship, and in episode 4, I think a possible flag could be Kyrie's deduction forcing Krauss and Natsuhi to visit Kinzo.
I've said this before plenty of times: What happens on the 4th is probably more important than what happens on the 5th. Some examples besides the ones you mentioned:
  • In all episodes but 2, the cousins go to the beach for lunch and Shannon comes with them. In 2, Battler and Maria take a nap in the parlor instead, causing the adults to break up instead of confronting Krauss. This is also when "Beatrice" appears to Kyrie.
  • Nanjo does different things in different episodes. It's not clear why. He claims to be with Kinzo in several episodes, which means we have no way to know where he really was.
  • Sometimes Jessica and Kumasawa meet everyone at the dock in Nijima. Sometimes they stay on Rokkenjima.
  • The infamous Eva seagull thing (which might just be a flashback or error).
  • Sometimes Kanon stays out in the garden until almost when the rain starts (the time he sees Maria there). Sometimes he goes to see Kinzo, which means (again) that we don't know where he actually is. In every episode, he is unaccounted-for most of the afternoon regardless of what happens.
  • The mood at dinner is always slightly different. It probably depends on how angry the adults are with each other. The most pleasant dinner (before Maria busts out the letter anyway) is in ep2, when the confrontation with Krauss does not happen.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:09   Link #3787
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Why Ep2 is the only one where noone dies at the ninth twilight?
How about this:
- The "tenth twilight" refers to the bomb / landslide / whatever hinted in episode 4 (except for Maria in that episode); the "ninth twilight" refers to anyone killed by a human after the 13th death.
- In episode 2, the main killer was one of the five people killed at the 4th-8th twilights (either suicide or underestimated a victim). With that done, there was no human agency to finish things off.

Example:
- George sneaks off and sets up Nanjo & Kumasawa's bodies in the courtyard.
- He suggests going to Natsuhi's room, hoping to stake Genji, Shannon, and Gohda there, but Genji declines.
- As they enter her room, George locks the door behind him to slow down any escape.
- He surprises Shannon near the vanity, killing her instantly.
- He struggles with Gohda; both stake each other.
- George falls where he was hit; Gohda lives a little longer and almost makes it to the door.

This doesn't explain why Kumasawa & Nanjo were put at the wrong twilight, or why there were marks outside Natsuhi's door, though.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:16   Link #3788
ameskitty
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You know, "flags" might be a better way to at least predict the murder order. I've been trying to figure out how they might explain at least the second twilight (as in who ends up "isolated"). I'm still thinking that the rest of the murders are based off of some sort of priority list.

EP2 and EP3 have particularly easy-to-explain "flags". The death of both of Jessica's parents causes her to run off on her own in search of the culprit. This in turn causes Kanon and possibly others to follow. General knowledge about the pairing leads the others to stray back to the group (the note could possibly have been an aid to ensure that Kanon will stay and that others will feel unable to provide sympathy) and think that they'll be fine alone. This chain reaction of flags means that Jessica and Kanon are alone and that they will be the victims of the second twilight.

Okay, EP3 now. The killing of all the servants makes the parents collectively uneasy (usually there aren't so many parents), so they bolt everybody up in the guesthouse where all the guns are. This causes Maria to feel boxed-up, and because the windows in the guesthouse allow for a plain view of the storm she gets antsy and worries about her rose. The parents will not let her go out alone - nor will they let her go even with one of the children. Because Rosa is her mother, though, and she is embarrassed by Maria's behavior, she decides to take her out for a bit just to make her quiet down. This isolates Rosa and Maria, making them the victims.

EP1 could be a flagged tussle between Natsuhi and Eva tripping the "Eva needs alone time w/ Hideyoshi" flag, and I really have no idea about EP4. It seems way too complicated, too, so I'm not sure how this helps.

Perhaps Eva was supposed to be the second victim, because by her nature she would have eventually joined her husband, and the killer jumped the gun because Erika was making him/her nervous? Seems doubtful though.

The "setup" everybody's talking about might have a lot to do with this, and in fact it might even predict the first twilight.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:22   Link #3789
Geekodot
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I can't understand why Erika doesn't think about this. Battler finds the gold. Battler is reluctantly agreed to be the next head by the other adults at the conference, even though they clearly don't like the idea.
Erika is incompetent!

There is pretty strong evidence that the hidden gold is found in more games than 3 and 5.

And if indeed it is common to find the gold during the 4th (except for in the third where no one tried finding it that night and it was instead found the next day by Eva), it would be strange for that gold to be completely unrelated to the murders.
I think the gold find greatly afflicts the order of the murders, however what I haven't figured out completely yet is the master plan behind the murders themselves. However, I think the whole "family is split in factions when the gold is found" idea makes the murders seem very possible.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:23   Link #3790
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Well the quick and dirty way to explain the murders thus far in ep5 is to blame Rudolf and Kyrie. They look guilty as hell given the circumstances, after all.

Of course the things about the bodies not moving after being killed and whatnot complicates matters, but the point is it certainly looks like Battler's family is the one behind things. If that were true, one expects they'd kill (or try to kill) everyone but themselves and Battler first.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:32   Link #3791
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Well the quick and dirty way to explain the murders thus far in ep5 is to blame Rudolf and Kyrie. They look guilty as hell given the circumstances, after all.

Of course the things about the bodies not moving after being killed and whatnot complicates matters, but the point is it certainly looks like Battler's family is the one behind things. If that were true, one expects they'd kill (or try to kill) everyone but themselves and Battler first.
And to use the chessboard thinking here:

When someone LOOKS guilty, it makes them innocent :P
However, I do think they are the culprits of ep 5, but I have to wait for the translation to make final judgement... not so good in japanese xD
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:37   Link #3792
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Originally Posted by Geekodot View Post
And to use the chessboard thinking here:

When someone LOOKS guilty, it makes them innocent :P
However, I do think they are the culprits of ep 5, but I have to wait for the translation to make final judgement... not so good in japanese xD
Well... far as I can tell, the red doesn't stop them from being killers. If no one actually died before the morning of the 5th, it would be pretty easy for them to find some opportunity to shank people. I forget where Rudolf and Kyrie are and when Erika does and doesn't see them.

As a note: In ep5 up to that point, Gohda and Rudolf are the only adult males (not counting Nanjo, who might actually be more physically able than he lets on) alive. Genji is killed, Hideyoshi is dead/attacked/faking(?), Krauss is dead. Of course, Eva could probably take Rudolf in a fight. Gohda on the other hand is built like a linebacker, for all the good it ever does him.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:42   Link #3793
Kit
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I was wondering though...isn't it possible (in any episode) for the "attacker" or a member of the "attacking party" to be killed by those defending themselves? If that's the case then that would open up a whole new window of possibilities in deducing the culprit in episode 5...

For example, there would be those who have problems with calling someone who kills in self defense a murderer, and hence red truths surrounding Nanjo and Kumasawa's death by "Kanon" would be naught but equivocation.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:44   Link #3794
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I was wondering though...isn't it possible (in any episode) for the "attacker" or a member of the "attacking party" to be killed by those defending themselves? If that's the case then that would open up a whole new window of possibilities in deducing the culprit in episode 5...
Sure, it's very possible, and probably likely in one episode. For instance, let's say Rosa and Genji are actually innocent in ep2, in that they aren't going around trying to kill anyone. As someone has suggested, if the killer were someone like George, or the real killer attacked Rosa and Genji and died trying, then the survivors at the final twilight would not necessarily include the culprit.

In ep4, the culprit or culprits do not survive to the end. Battler is the only one left, and he's not the culprit. So clearly something killed them; they were either killed off by someone, died of a mutual wounding, suicide, something.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:48   Link #3795
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Talking about killling orders in the 1st twilights:

In EP1, the decisive factor was Jessica giving the amulet to Natsuhi and Eva and Hideyoshi retreated to their room (which was suspicious)

In EP2, the factor was the showup of suit Beatrice in front of Rosa and Kyrie, thus triggering the call for this VIP during the dinner.

In EP3, the factor was Rosa recalling the death of cliff-falling Beatrice? And that the siblings did unite together to fight Beatrice and to solve the epitaph? Of course the fact that the adults sticking together was also one factor (but it was also true in EP2, while in EP3 Beato did not show up to anyone)

In EP4, Kyrie told Krauss she suspected Kinzo was already dead, forcing him to prove Kinzo was alive in that day.

In EP5, the discovery of the gold by Battler, obviously.


I could not find any general rules among them. Only that we could identify the factors in each episode.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-01 at 14:00.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:49   Link #3796
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That's exactly the problem I have with episode 4 too! The fact that the red truth says that "There are no one else here aside from you on this Island, and yet I will kill you." I'm not sure I'm okay with a non-human death for the final twilight...

Also, after reading the Ura-Tea party of episode 4, I find that the red truth is increasinly more deceptive as the games progress. None of the red truth really "tell" you what happens. For example, Lambda's "Kanon didn't die in a suicide!" can literally mean "Kanon didn't die," "Kanon was murdered," as well as "Kanon died of natural causes" and so on and so forth...really brings to mind what Virgillia was telling Battler earlier when Beato was attempting to answer his requests in a roundabout manner. In retrospect, i think a good 80% of the red he demanded Beato repeat never helped at all!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Talking about killling orders in the 1st twilights:

In EP3, the factor was Rosa recalling the death of cliff-falling Beatrice? And that the siblings did unite together to fight Beatrice and to solve the epitaph?
I believe the recalling of Beatrice's death came after the deaths of the 6 servants...In this case, I think Eva's observation of George's love for Shannon would be a better suit.

As for rules, I think it's about how early relationships are solidified. In episode 1, we have George and Shannon's proposal, and Natsuhi's fierce loyalty to Kinzo. In episode 2, we have Maria and Rosa, as well as Maria and Beatrice. In episode 3, we have George and Shannon again, as well as Eva to Young eva...and in episode 4 we have Kyrie to Krauss, and Krauss and Natsuhi to Kinzo.
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Old 2009-12-01, 13:54   Link #3797
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That's why Beatrice is willing to use it. Do you honestly think she'd be stupid enough to just flat-out give away everything that happened? She created the red text rule because she knew Battler would rely on it.

That said, the red text is useful, as it narrows things down. You just have to be careful with it.
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Old 2009-12-01, 14:02   Link #3798
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Mmm...It's just that the impression I got from episode 5 spoilers is that she wanted to aid him in solving the puzzle...It seems counter productive to me to equivocate so often xP It also seems like if the red is so dishonest about being honest, then nearly none of it can be taken at face value, which is what it was originally intended for...

Quick question - I forget, when Kanon was killed with Jessica, was there a red confirming his death? He seems to be the most slippery of all the characters in terms of death times and body location Haha!
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Old 2009-12-01, 14:05   Link #3799
ijriims
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I think the murders were conducted at the same time with the family meeting in EP3, since the adults were discussing overnight. I suppose the culprit change the initial plan from murdering some of the adults to killing all the servants.

Probably initially Kumasawa and Gohda were already killed (they were the most unimportant people to the family, while Nanjo was in the guesthouse and his identity of being a doctor would prove useful latter), then after hearing Rosa's confession and the general eagerness of the adults to go solving the epitaph, the culprits sent the order to one of the killer servant to take out remaining two servants and moved all the bodies to respective places, painting the magic circles. Then the culprit kill the last servants and locked all the doors when he or she was "going to the washroom" or whatever.

-------------------------------------------------------

It has been mentioned in EP4 the bank card led to a renowned bank and the password 07151129 unlocked over 20 deposit boxes (of course one must have the key as well to open other boxes). Therefore besides Nanjo's son, Kumasawa's family and Ange, to who were the remaining boxes intending to?

1.It has been stated that Kumasawa had not only one son, so if Beatrice was generous then every one of the siblings may got 100 million yens. Though I don't it was the case.

2.Possibly Kyrie's father also got the money, as he was outcast by the Sumadera family and probably relied on Kyrie's subsistence before the incident.

3. Did Gohda's family also receive money? Maybe he had no children or wife, but if his parents were still alive then they should be sent money.

4.Considering Shannon and Kanon were orphans, it was unlikely money could be sent to their "relatives". But maybe money was sent to the orphanage.

5.Maybe some money was reserved for Asumu's parents, but they passed away just before the incident so the bank card were not sent to them.

6. Consider the return of Battler was not foreseen (I assumed the murders were planned probably at least a few months), maybe one of the boxes was for him if he did not return.

There were still lots of the deposit boxes remained..... maybe they were just empty or contained some gold ingots....

------------------

@Kit: If you were talking about EP2, Kanon was confirmed to be killed in Jessica's room in red texts. Someone said that the meaning of kill in Japanese was tricky so he might not have died YET.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-01 at 14:22.
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Old 2009-12-01, 14:07   Link #3800
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Ah you're right...Sorry, my memory is a bit shabby, so many mistakes made today
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