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Old 2009-12-02, 22:37   Link #3841
rogerpepitone
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The Locked Room Lecture, by John Dickson Carr (In The Three Coffins aka The Hollow Man

A: No murderer escaped because no murderer was in the room
A1. "It is not murder, but a series of coincidences ending in an accident which looks like murder..."
(Examples of this type given by Dr. Fell: Sherlock Holmes' adventure with the Crooked Man, Gaston Leroux's 'The Mystery of the Yellow Room'.)

A2. "It is murder, but the victim is impelled to kill himself or crash into an accidental death..."

A3. "It is murder, by a mechanical device already planted in the room, and hidden undetectably in some innocent looking piece of furninture..."

A4. "It is suicide, which is intended to look like murder..."


A5. "It is a murder which derives its problem from illusion and impersonation..."
Example: victim is already dead in the room. Killer enters the room in a way so as to be mistaken for the victim, then immediately leaves and is identified as himself.

A6. "It is a murder which, although committed by somebody outside the room at the time, nevertheless seems to have been committed by somebody who must have been inside..."

A7. "This is a murder depending on an effect exactly the reverse of number 5. That is the victim is presumed dead long after he actually is..."

Example: Victim is lying in his room, asleep or drugged (occasionally, has faked death as part of a prank). Killer starts making a ruckus, gets the door broken down. Killer manages to get in, and manages to secretly kill the victim without anybody noticing, or after everyone else leaves.

B) Ways to make a door appear to be locked from the inside

B1) Tampering with the key which is in the lock.
(Use needlenose pliers)

B2) Removing hinges without disturbing lock or bolt.

B3) Tampering with bolt

B4) Tampering with falling bar or latch

B5) Killer locked the room from the outside. Later, breaks through the glass and pretends to find the key in the lock.

-----

As for the envelopes: The person / group who mailed the letters a few days before the incident, and who gave Maria Beatrice's first letter (possibly also others) is not connected to the murders. It is only through the coincidence of those murders occuring at the same time that the letters appear sinister.

-----

As for Eva & Hideyoshi's room:

First, how did the killer get in?

1) Killer entered before H&E arrived / ambushed them on their way to the room. (In the manga, they went alone.)

2) Eva or Hideyoshi let the killer in.
George could easily get in; possibly also Battler (Eva said she trusted him at an earlier point). Natsuhi is right out, and Genji, and Kanon are probably out as well. (Or possibly the killer fooled Eva into thinking it was Battler / George.)

-----

How did the killer get out?

- still in the room when group arrived
- left through the door; Kanon and / or Genji lied about the chain being on
- left through the door; used some trick to fake the chain still being on
- left through the window; used some trick to lock the window from outside
- left through the window; locked window from inside after breaking into the room

I favor the window hypotheses, except that:
Quote:
The only sounds that filled the room were the distant voice of the announcer on the news, which Hideyoshi had left on, and the obnoxious pounding of the rain against the window...
(would have left water under the window, likely)

内側からドアチェーンで封印されていた。窓も内側から閉まり、遺体も室内にある。
It was sealed from the inside by the door chain. The window had also been closed from the inside, and the bodies had been in the room.

Did it say "closed from the inside" or "locked from the inside"? (Nobody is mentioned as having checked the locks while they were there.)
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Old 2009-12-03, 02:32   Link #3842
ijriims
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On the boiler room:

In the anime (EP4) , Genji made it explicit that the door leading to the courtyard did not have a lock on it.

So I think it was settled that the culprit could form the chain-closed room through the boiler room.

-------------------------------------------------------

Some people insisted that people would be in great grief and frustration that they had a very little chance to check the room where Eva and Hideyoshi were found dead. This put Rosa in EP2 really supicious, as she instantly ordered the people to check whether someone was hiding in Jessica's room and quickly concluded that Kanon was the murderer of Jessica.

Her lack of either fear or grief suggested that either she was extremely calm and levelheaded (though she was a rather irritable and emotional mother) in seeing Jessica was staked on the floor, or she set up the whole scene and planned to frame Kanon from the start.

For the closed room itself, the major differences between theories were whether one put the servant(s) as accomplice(s) or not, and whether Kanon faked his death or not, as the boiler room incident happened almost immediately after the discovery of Eva and Hideyoshi's body.

If the culprit did hide in the room after killing both Eva and Hideyoshi inside the room(the red texts stated that both were killed inside the room and the culprit was also inside the room when the murder executed), he or she had a huge chance of not being found IF he or she was from the 1st twilight, as all the supposely sole survivros were together, they had little reason to look for any hidden person inside the room. Of course this required all of people believing in the culprit being not one of the 18 people.

----------------------------------------------------------

There should be a man-made disaster at the end of 5th Oct, no matter it was an explosion or landslide, since otherwise why Beatrice stated that their time was running out and no hope of surviving after the typhoon passed.

The people on Rokkenjima had no hope of surviving if they did not solve the epitaph and find the shelter inside the tunnel system by 00:00 6th Oct (I suppose there were bomb shelters beneath the mansion inside the tunnel system)

I believed the mastermind was alive until the end of the game in EP1, and Nanjo, Shannon and Genji being her accomplices.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-03 at 03:11.
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Old 2009-12-03, 03:58   Link #3843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
But here's an idea I haven't seen here before: what if it's Maria who was lying? I don't remember who it was, but one of the characters initially thought that Maria had gotten the umbrella out of her handbag. Maybe that was actually true, and she never met Beatrice at all.
It's possible that they're both true, if she obtained the umbrella from "Beatrice" on a previous occasion. Although that makes her answer of "Kinzo" in EP4 an anomaly...

That's an interesting perspective for sure, I think it's worth pursuing that line of thought.
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Old 2009-12-03, 05:31   Link #3844
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But Beatrice said in red "The letter that I gave to Maria...", so she received it from Beatrice somehow....

Well... this becomes very interesting if she received it... before October4...
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Old 2009-12-03, 07:02   Link #3845
Workworkwork
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
But here's an idea I haven't seen here before: what if it's Maria who was lying? I don't remember who it was, but one of the characters initially thought that Maria had gotten the umbrella out of her handbag. Maybe that was actually true, and she never met Beatrice at all.

The whole bit with the rose is suspicious in the first place. Even though events vary in every game, Maria always finds the rose, always fights with her mother about it, and always stays out to look for it in the rain. Why is only this sequence of events constant? If we learned anything from Higurashi, it's that constant events happen because someone deliberately causes them, and the only one in a position to cause the events involving the rose is Maria herself. Incidentally, the period where she's out looking for the rose is also the only time on October 4th where she is totally unsupervised.
I thought I had mentioned before that I think Maria=Beatrice.

Especially when the cousins remark about her "Being too young to remember Battler", which strikes me as a clue that she DOES know more than she lets on. Perhaps the real reason she's so cold around him at first is because she has knowledge of his sin?
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Old 2009-12-03, 07:34   Link #3846
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Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
I thought I had mentioned before that I think Maria=Beatrice.

Especially when the cousins remark about her "Being too young to remember Battler", which strikes me as a clue that she DOES know more than she lets on. Perhaps the real reason she's so cold around him at first is because she has knowledge of his sin?
The sin is not between Battler and Beatrice so if the sin is between Battler and Maria, then Maria can't be Beatrice. Beatrice is however clearly saddened by Battler not remembering it, and that makes me think it is between someone Beatrice is/was close too and Battler. This means that Battler's sin would be between Battler and either Maria or Kinzo.

I have a theory for Battler's sin, but it's not ready yet, so I will refrain from posting it now. I Still got some small problems to work out with ep 5.

Last edited by Geekodot; 2009-12-03 at 13:35.
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Old 2009-12-03, 07:37   Link #3847
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Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
I thought I had mentioned before that I think Maria=Beatrice.

Especially when the cousins remark about her "Being too young to remember Battler", which strikes me as a clue that she DOES know more than she lets on. Perhaps the real reason she's so cold around him at first is because she has knowledge of his sin?
I don't see how that's a clue in the slightest, and as I think Maria would be 3 at the last conference, I don't believe she could remember anything, particularly when she states that she doesn't recognize Battler when she meets him for the first time.

Quote:
Well... this becomes very interesting if she received it... before October4...
Even then it's still a problem. Assuming that Meta-Beatrice and the "Beatrice" on the game board are the same person (something I do believe due to Beatrice stating in the end of Game 3 that Battler would see her true form if he didn't cover his ears), then since it's stated in red that Beatrice gave a letter to Maria, one would then concluded that Beatrice isn't Maria.
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Old 2009-12-03, 13:30   Link #3848
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Originally Posted by k//eternal View Post
It's possible that they're both true, if she obtained the umbrella from "Beatrice" on a previous occasion. Although that makes her answer of "Kinzo" in EP4 an anomaly...

That's an interesting perspective for sure, I think it's worth pursuing that line of thought.
Battler never actually heard who the letter came from in ep4, as I recall. And Rosa was telling everyone secondhand during the conference, where he also wasn't in attendance.

Of course, if Rosa really did say this, it lends some credence to the theory that Rosa is lying about meeting Beatrice in the rose garden and that she might have actually told Maria to say who it was from. Since in ep4 Kyrie advances the theory that Kinzo is dead, Rosa might have altered her plan for some reason (although suggesting Kinzo is actually alive doesn't help the blackmail position, but perhaps that isn't her real plan).

Alternately, it's just a load of bunk in a scene whose veracity is questionable.
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Old 2009-12-04, 01:27   Link #3849
ijriims
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Originally Posted by Geekodot View Post
I have a theory for Battler's sin, but it's not ready yet, so I will refrain from posting it now. I Still got some small problems to work out with ep 5.
Let me preempt at this opportunity to present my hypothesis on Battler's sin, again.

Battler, 6 years ago, had made a load of promises like the one "I will ride on a white horse for you"to Shannon. He made promise as well to Maria to see her every family meeting or regard her as her sister as well or something like that. Of course, like the "white horse promise", he did not say it too seriously and he left Ushiromiya family afterwards.

Maria complained that Battler was missing in the coming meeting and real Beatrice knew it. Soon, Maria forgot about Battler after a few years' time due to her young age. However, real Beatrice DID remember it.

After Battler's return, real Beatrice observed that Maria was rather happy around Battler, compared to Jessica and George being with Maria. And Battler did show her brotherly love which was lacking from Jessica and George. She wondered, if Battler was not absent from all these meetings, would Maria darken to this black witch and even vowed to kill Rosa to avenge for Sakutarou. Her answer was negative. She even imagined what the whole Ushiromiya family would like if Battler were present throughout these family meetings. She believed Battler's positive aura would affect everyone around him: Rosa would be less irritable, Rudolf would focus more on his family rather than his shady business, Eva would use her wits more against Battler rather than solely on targeting Krauss. Battler served to be the mediator and lubricant of the family.

If Maria had someone like Battler to care for her as a brother, she would not suffer and hate her mom so much now. If Maria was not suffering this much, she would not hate Rosa so much and deem the Ushiromiya family as fractured so deeply, then she would not say to Maria to take her to the Golden Land and held a trial over Ushiromiya family. She loved the Ushiromiya family but at the same time loathe at it. She knew the current plan could not be stopped now. She promised Maria to bring her to the Golden Land, and to accomplish this, she had to execute the plan she prepared long ago. Unlike Battler, Beatrice kept her promises, even though she knew she could stop right now.

Why did you not realize your own position and significance to the whole Ushiromiya family? Why did you not hold your promise to come see Maria each family meeting and treat her as your own sister but leave the family? Why did you just focus on your father Rudolf's re-marriage and forget about Maria and the impact over the whole Ushiromiya family. This is your last chance to redeem yourself, and by realizing how importance how yours value to the family, you pass the test and I shall bestow the title of the head of Ushiromiya family, the gold and let you survive, then you would restore Ushiromiya family just like what Kinzo did 30 years ago.

But if you don't realize it and still forget about the promise you made 6 years ago, that's your sin, Battler.

You disappointed me, as the last surviving memebers of Ushiromiya family. Am I hoping for an impossible miracle from the beginning?

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-04 at 02:11.
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Old 2009-12-04, 02:11   Link #3850
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When you think about it, with the 07151129 letters being sent out on October 3rd, the ring of the head was already in someone else's possession. If we trust the "past" scenes from EP5, then how did someone get their hands on it? Kinzo's death was being covered up well enough that (apparently) even Jessica didn't know about it, and someone would have to be on Rokkenjima to snag the ring anyway.

The person who wrote the letters is obviously on the island for the conference, since you see the text in EP3. Additionally, the (claimed) identity of everyone on the island is known. So either people can still arrive on the island (hey, Erika managed it), or someone in that crowd is the author.

The financial situation of all the adults is supposedly poor, so it makes no sense for them to be handing out a bunch of cash. At the same time, it would be really hard for the cousins to be hiding a vast sum of money as well. Would it be possible for the servants?

Not sure where this is going, but maybe people have some ideas about what the deal is.
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Old 2009-12-04, 02:34   Link #3851
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When you think about it, with the 07151129 letters being sent out on October 3rd, the ring of the head was already in someone else's possession. If we trust the "past" scenes from EP5, then how did someone get their hands on it? Kinzo's death was being covered up well enough that (apparently) even Jessica didn't know about it, and someone would have to be on Rokkenjima to snag the ring anyway.

The person who wrote the letters is obviously on the island for the conference, since you see the text in EP3. Additionally, the (claimed) identity of everyone on the island is known. So either people can still arrive on the island (hey, Erika managed it), or someone in that crowd is the author.

The financial situation of all the adults is supposedly poor, so it makes no sense for them to be handing out a bunch of cash. At the same time, it would be really hard for the cousins to be hiding a vast sum of money as well. Would it be possible for the servants?

Not sure where this is going, but maybe people have some ideas about what the deal is.
The financial situation for the adults themselves is poor, BUT there is one adult that is controlling Kinzo's fortune is it not? The very same person that hides his death in order to not lose that advantage. Of course I am talking about Krauss.

He is the only person I can think about that could've prepared all this money, and if he sent the letters on october 3rd, he might be one of the first people to know of Ange's absence too.

This doesn't make Krauss the murderer, but there is a good reason to think that he is at least involved in some murders as well as the master plan (if there even is one).
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Old 2009-12-04, 02:46   Link #3852
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Krauss? Unless we were shown an enormous load of bunk, he's certainly not doing great himself...
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Old 2009-12-04, 03:01   Link #3853
ijriims
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Not sure where this is going, but maybe people have some ideas about what the deal is.
Beatrice herself had solved the epitaph and got the gold, or she was extremely wealthy already. (assuming all the deposits contained money, it was still just one-tenth of what the gold was worth of)

From what we watched in the Anime, the letters containing the bank cards already had the family seals on them, so Beatrice had already possessed the ring at least on Oct 3 th.

I suppose it should be Genji who held the ring after Kinzo's death (not that he wore it, but he kept it until Kinzo's death was announced and the next head of the family was chosen).

But actually he gave it to Beatrice while Krauss and Natsuhi did not know about it, since Beatrice was already the head of Ushiromiya family by solving the epitaph (Notice: solving the epitaph and taking away the gold were two different things.)

--------------------

The above reasoning also meant that none of the siblings would have already solved the epitaph as they must take the gold out immediately considering their financial situation.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-04 at 05:54.
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Old 2009-12-04, 03:55   Link #3854
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If a letter containing the ring really was delivered to the conference in Episode 5 (yes, this is a big if), then the red significantly narrows down who could have done it. That person is probably the one who had control of the ring.

The letter would have to have been delivered before midnight, since the person who left it wasn't in the mansion at that point and couldn't have entered afterwards. It also must have been after the conference started, which was apparently around 11:30. Pretty much the only people who had the opportunity to do it in that time period without getting caught were Nanjo, who was unaccounted for up until midnight, and Kumasawa, who supposedly went to bed in the guesthouse at 9:30 but could have snuck out a window.

Gohda could have snuck out a window too, but he was on duty in the servants' room at the time, so he'd have had to worry about the cousins looking for him. One of the cousins might have been able to manage it, but it sounded like Erika was with them for a short period before midnight, so they'd have had a very tight window. The cousin in question would also need to get away from the others somehow, or they'd need to be conspiring together, which seems really unlikely.
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Old 2009-12-04, 05:01   Link #3855
ijriims
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If a letter containing the ring really was delivered to the conference in Episode 5 (yes, this is a big if), then the red significantly narrows down who could have done it. That person is probably the one who had control of the ring.
Actually it pinned down almost nothing. Even if Nanjo or Kumasawa did deliver the letter, they could just be accomplices of Beatrice (Beatrice told one of them to deliver the letter at 11:30pm) or one of them was Beatrice (Nanjo... it can still be possible, but I guess the possibility is VERY low) It did not suggest anyone being Beatrice at all.

The only thing certain maybe Nanjo or Kumasawa was involved. (so lame)

-------------------------------------------------


Suddenly a thought comes to my mind:

The dirty trick Ryukishi07 talked about - could it be the CLOCK?
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Old 2009-12-04, 05:44   Link #3856
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Suddenly a thought comes to my mind:

The dirty trick Ryukishi07 talked about - could it be the CLOCK?
I could buy time-shifting as the dirty trick, but not physically manipulating the clock. What would be the point? The people at the conference don't have the benefit of red telling them where everyone else is at midnight and limiting people's movements, so from their perspective, Lambda's impossible knock illusion doesn't exist. They can pick a potential knocker freely from anyone else on the island.
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Old 2009-12-04, 05:52   Link #3857
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By CLOCK, I meant the one the readers see each time a chapter begins or end.

I thought it was apparent enough what I was referring to...

And I know nothing about the details of the murders or mysteries in EP5
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Old 2009-12-04, 11:08   Link #3858
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I'm not sure if showing fake times on the clock would qualify as "extremely venomous material", but it probably would throw some people off, I guess.

I'd been thinking more along the lines of the fact that Battler's actions in the early portion of EP5 are no longer trustworthy (since Bern was controlling his piece), or what the hell Erika was doing in a swimsuit on the deck of a boat during a typhoon. Both kind of sketchy, although I get the feeling the real trick may be even more so...

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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I could buy time-shifting as the dirty trick, but not physically manipulating the clock. What would be the point? The people at the conference don't have the benefit of red telling them where everyone else is at midnight and limiting people's movements, so from their perspective, Lambda's impossible knock illusion doesn't exist. They can pick a potential knocker freely from anyone else on the island.
Actually, this is something I always thought was pretty weird. A lot of parts of the mystery seem like they're designed to throw off someone who knows more than anyone on the island does (i.e., the reader), rather than the family themselves.

I mean, you can say the culprit is being controlled by the witch side who wants to confuse the human side, but as far as the board itself is concerned, no such thing ought to exist.
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Old 2009-12-04, 11:23   Link #3859
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Indeed I see little reasons for the culprit to manipulate the clock unless he's aware of the metaworld. Pretty much everyone at the family conference is a busy worker, chances that they do not have a wristwatch are practically inexistent and they should rely on those. Also the chances that the clock was lagging behind are minimal as well considering how anal Natsuhi is and how zealous Genji is.
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Old 2009-12-04, 11:54   Link #3860
ijriims
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As I don't know the EP5 details at all, I don't know how the clock was being wrong would affect the case solving at all.

But my notion is that the clock we see was a metaphysical clock and controlled by the GM. In EP5, it was Lambda. On the gameboard, the people had little reason to rig the real clock, but in the meta world, Lamda controled the time reference for Battler (and the readers) as well.

The clock we see was the intended trick by Lambda to Battler, not by culprit to the pieces.
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