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Old 2009-12-06, 01:24   Link #3901
ijriims
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What we know is that real Beatrice had a profound knowledge on Italian and magic things (she drew all the magical circles for Maria on her grimoire (from EP2), and explained all the Hebrew sentences to her).

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The gold can be the refuge gold from Germany, or Italy, or even from Japanese military government. I believe the Japanese government must have some gold during the time of WWII. (consider that the Bretton Wood system had still be in place)

Of course, it relied on Rokkenjima being a secret military/research base during the WWII such that the Japanese government had an incentive to move the gold to this place (in fear of gold falling into USA's hand).
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@Renall

Just like Jessica could shoot herself if she was Beatrice, Kyrie could also shoot herself after meeting with Battler. As long as Maria cooperated with Beatrice, then Maria could stake the bodies and poisoned herself in the end. (THis explained why the stakes were placed so shaddily around the bodies, because she did not have the tool and strength to stab the bodies in the chest or knee)

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How could I illustrate Lambda or Bern would use red texts differently from Beatrice...

Let's say there was a scene where C witnessed A pulling out a stake piercing B, then B dies shortly after the bleeding.

The truth is that B was stabbed by someone beforehand by D and after A saw it, A just pulled it out in fear.

If Battler said that What C saw was fake and in fact C was the killer. Even if what C saw was accurate, A was not the murderer.

In Beatrice's case, she would only counter that What C saw was true and accurate. THen she would refuse to counter the second part.

In Lambda or Bern's case, their red texts would be What C saw was true and accurate. And A did kill B. Of course they would hide the part that A killed B unintentionally and there was another murderer D.

I hope this would illustrate how Lambda and Bern used the red texts to confuse Battler even though what they said were the truth in some sense, while Beato would stop at the point where Battler had found out the truth. This was the trick of partial truth, hiding some part while disclosing only the part which was beneficial to themselves.

To illustrate how Lambda or Bern would misinterpret red texts intentionally. Let say after the above scene, there was another scene showing that C witnessed the death of A by some mysterious murderer E, and D accused C as the murderer but C insisted that E was the murderer.

The truth was that C did kill A.

Battler would say that The scene was fake. In reality, C did murder A and what he told to D were lies.

Beato would not counter this blue texts as Battler did find the truth.

But in the case of Lambda or Bern, they would say "What C saw was true and accurate. (repeating red texts from previous scene) So what C witnessed the death of A must be the truth and E must be the murderer."

Lambda or Bern could misinterpret red texts not applicable in other cases to confuse Battler and help defending themselves.

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-06 at 01:49.
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Old 2009-12-06, 02:00   Link #3902
imaginari
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Originally Posted by chounokoe View Post
Then I just want to ask you...what reason would there be to destroy the mansion?
Well, I've been assuming for a while that the culprit believes that she is Beatrice, and to a lesser degree that the epitaph murders are meant to lend her power (or something similar) through the belief of others. In that case, a bomb or similar timed attack would help in several ways:
  • It would destroy all evidence, including evidence that she is not Beatrice, and leave space in people's imaginations that would be filled by the message bottles and other oddities.
  • It would absolutely ensure that no one survives, regardless of circumstances, even if the killer "sacrifices her physical form" as Meta-Beatrice claimed to have done in the 1967 scene.
  • Also, it would kill Battler without showing him anything that would disprove her magic. I don't believe that I have a good argument proving that this is an actual goal of Beatrice's, but she does seem to be going to more lengths to fool him than the others.
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Old 2009-12-06, 04:01   Link #3903
Renall
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
@Renall

Just like Jessica could shoot herself if she was Beatrice, Kyrie could also shoot herself after meeting with Battler. As long as Maria cooperated with Beatrice, then Maria could stake the bodies and poisoned herself in the end. (THis explained why the stakes were placed so shaddily around the bodies, because she did not have the tool and strength to stab the bodies in the chest or knee)
I have this hunch that Maria is one of the first to die in ep4, not one of the last. I'm wary of any theory that goes "Maria cleaned everything up and killed herself" not just because I'm not entirely certain Maria would do it, but also because if she does do it then everyone must be dead as soon as Battler finds Maria's corpse. I have a sneaking suspicion that everyone is not dead yet at the time Battler enters the mansion.

Kyrie could shoot herself so long as at least one other person remained alive to stake her. It doesn't have to be Maria, necessarily. The only person it cannot have been is Kanon or one of the eight people to die before Kanon. Thing is... we don't know who those eight people are.
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Old 2009-12-06, 06:15   Link #3904
ijriims
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My list of the 8 people are: Natsuhi, Rosa, Rudolf, Eva, Hideyoshi (these fives just died more or less in the same time), Kumasawa, Gohda (they were killed just after they were locked inside the garden shed) and Krauss (he was killed as he found out Beatrice planned to kill the cousins if they failed the tests, so Jessica was in danger).

Then the order of death is: Kanon (revolt after Krauss was killed), George (Shannon was sent to George and because she could not kill him, Beato killed him instead), Shannon , Nanjo, Jessica (Genji was sent to her room), Genji, Kyrie, Maria, Battler.

Of course Kinzo died before all.

The 5 people group of Kyrie consisted of Kanon, Shannon, Nanjo, Genji and Kyrie.

For so many death to happen in the same time, I doubt the CLOCK (the one we saw each time before or right at the end of chapters) was not as reliable as it seemed.

---------------------------------------------------

@chounokoe: I think the red texts "The gold of the Golden Land has belonged to this child from the very beginning. There is no need for her to make someone find it, or for her to usurp it" did not imply she did not need to solve the epitaph. What the red texts said was she did not need to let others to get the gold as she could just take all her gold away, and she did not "usurp" it as the gold belonged to her initially (I suppose we have a mutual understanding on what usurp means). What she needed to do was to solve the epitaph to relocate the gold as it was hidden by Kinzo beneath Rokkenjima, it was not an usurpation but a reclamation. She needed to reclaim the gold but not to usurp the gold.

The most controversial part of my background hypothesis, which I had not told you yet (I have posted it, and bombarded by others already), is secret-lover Beatrice (1952 one) being real Beatrice's (the one on the gamebroad in 1986) mother. I guessed you know who the real Beatrice I was talking about and one hint (and perhaps only this one hint) was that Kyrie having a Western name even though she was inside the traditional Sumadera family.

Why would Beatrice be married into the Sumadera family? I hypothesize it was a political marriage to get close to the Axis for the Sumadera family.

Controversial to its heart, I suppose. I guessed only myself in this forum would take this stance...

Last edited by ijriims; 2009-12-06 at 07:34.
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Old 2009-12-06, 08:14   Link #3905
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Some interesting facts that I haven't seen mentioned about the island...

1. If I remember correctly, Kinzo bought it while the japanese government was in shambles or from the occupation forces during WWII (he did at least buy it when the government needed money).

2. The Japanese government later wanted to buy the island back, but Kinzo refused to sell it.

I think this information is from Episode 1 or Episode 2. Probably Ep 2 as I've only read it once while I read all the other Episodes many times and I don't remember it to clearly (however, I am sure that these two statements are close to what is said in the VN).
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Old 2009-12-06, 09:36   Link #3906
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post

The big problem in your theory is that the idea of Battler killing himself isn't very likely. The idea that Battler has been driven to kill himself merely because all of his close relatives were killed isn't really working for me, especially for the fact that it isn't true.

Let's compare Eva and Battler respectively at the end of Ep3 and Ep4.

Eva had all the reasons to kill herself, her husband and her only son which she treasured above anything else were dead. It appears that she doesn't have any close friend so basically she had lost anything. Fulfilling her dream to become the next head certainly was a positive factor but considering the way she lived afterward we can be pretty sure that it wasn't worth the loss of the persons she loved.

As for Battler he didn't really lose any significant person. While he didn't hate Rudolf anymore it can't be said that he was so important to him. And he certainly respected Kyrie but not at the point that he would kill himself for her. Same thing goes for his cousins, which he likes but the fact that he practically never met them for six long years hints that he wasn't very close to them.
In addition Battler didn't lose everything, he still had Ange. A 6 years old girl that was waiting for him. A girl who had lost both parents and was going to have an incredibly sad life if even her brother would die.
For Battler to kill himself not only you'd have to think that he was loser for giving up so easily but also that he was an incredibly irresponsible and selfish person.

Do you picture Battler that way? I know I don't.
Did you forget the possibility that Battler may think this was all his fault like I put in theory?

Anyway, it's a Devil's Proof. Just as Battler was driven to accept witches in Ep2 (no matter if it didn't last long), there's nothing that can show Battler would never kill himself. 'Not likely' isn't going to cut it.

That doesn't mean I like it more than you do, but I like it a helluva lot better than bombs or landslides.
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Old 2009-12-06, 09:55   Link #3907
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In fact I gave to your theory a 40, which is definitely above 0.

I don't really agree that it is a "helluva" better than bombs or landslides, at least those would not cause me to dislike Battler.

Also landslides have been hinted in Ep4.


In addition to what I said your theory doesn't explain why the incident isn't reported as a crime by the police, which is one of the main reasons people are speculating about natural disasters.

And I point out again that the books that were auctioned by Eva are said to have "escaped the disaster", and that they come from Kuwadorian.
Can you answer these questions?

What kind of disaster they escaped? Serial murder? What kind of serial killer kills books?
What happened to the books in Kinzo's study? Why they weren't auctioned as well?


The natural disaster theory alone can answer to these questions, and to the fact that no crime was reported, and to Beatrice's final riddle.

How is Battler's suicide better?
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Old 2009-12-06, 10:18   Link #3908
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I can't answer that. But if a natural disaster did occur, how come nobody, not even Eva, say what kind of disaster?

Anyway, you've shown that my theory has flaws. But the talks of landslide and bombs leave a bad taste in my mouth.

In the end, I can accept there's a small chance of landslide. Bombs? Hell no. Traces of one going off would have been found by the police and it would have been reported as a crime.

HOWEVER.

Here are flaws to the landslide theroy.

1. Absolutely no factors other than humans participate in this game board. (Eva-Beatrice, Ep3)
You can argue this only concerned one game. Maybe, maybe not. But if a landslide always supposed to happen, this shouldn't be in red. In fact, this doesn't limit itself to game, but game 'board'.

2. Because of your sin, people die.
Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.

A landslide will happen regardless of if Battler is here or not. And that's the biggest reason why I can't accept a natural disaster.

And lastly... I would rather think of Beatrice as a person instead of a bomb or landslide.
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Old 2009-12-06, 10:38   Link #3909
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But maybe one of the 17 already knew that there is a risk of landslide, so the human factor would be 'warning or not warning the others that a landslide will happen'.
(It's a bit tricky so I don't rely on it at all)

The landslide theory has a good advantage, it can explain why some people wanted to escape the mansion at 10th Twilight. It's the case of Rosa in EP2, and maybe Eva in EP3.

Some people said that Ronove represents Genji and Virgilia represents Kumasawa, I agree with them. It is the same case for Eva-Beatrice and the Siesta Sisters, I think Eva-Beatrice represents both Eva and Beatrice the culprit and the Siesta Sisters are maybe the Winchester in Kinzo's collection.
But for Gaap's case, I think that she doesn't really represent one of the 17 characters, because she doesn't bear on her clothes the One-winged Eagle and she doesn't bear any similarities to one of the 17 (physically, in her character and in her speaking habits).
I think she is just a convenient character who can move people somewhere in the magic theory to create confusion.
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Old 2009-12-06, 11:01   Link #3910
LyricalAura
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So, I was rereading the second twilight of Episode 2, trying to see if I could extend my "conspiracy to mislead the culprit" theory from Episode 1, and I noticed something interesting. Here's a sequence of events...
  • Rosa leaves the parlor to go look for Shannon and Genji.
  • A golden butterfly lands on Rosa's back when she climbs the stairs to the study.
  • Meanwhile, George and Battler wonder what happened to Jessica and Kanon
  • Gohda says they probably went to Jessica's room together.
  • Rosa returns with Genji and Shannon. She's acting colder and carrying a rifle.
  • Rosa says it would be best for everyone to stay in the same place.
  • Gohda says they should bring Kanon and Jessica to the parlor
  • George tries to call her, but Gohda stops him because the phones are down.
  • Battler suggests that he go look with George and Gohda.
  • Rosa says they should all go together, and asks Genji where Jessica's room is.
Stop. Before Rosa left the parlor, all Gohda had said was that Kanon was looking after Jessica. She'd already left for the study when he actually said where they went. And after she came back, even though various people talked about contacting Jessica and Kanon or going to find them, nobody ever explicitly said they were in Jessica's room. So how did Rosa know?

Since she didn't hear it from anyone in the parlor, she must have A) heard it from Genji or Shannon, who left the chapel before Jessica even got there, or B) seen Jessica or Kanon and learned where they were directly.
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Old 2009-12-06, 11:25   Link #3911
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Well Rosa does confirm Shannon's and Genji's alibi for the second twilight because she supposedly heard it from Kinzo.

Since he has been dead for a while this is impossible. Unless Rosa is crazy. :P
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Old 2009-12-06, 11:39   Link #3912
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by Megaolix View Post
I can't answer that. But if a natural disaster did occur, how come nobody, not even Eva, say what kind of disaster?

Anyway, you've shown that my theory has flaws. But the talks of landslide and bombs leave a bad taste in my mouth.

In the end, I can accept there's a small chance of landslide. Bombs? Hell no. Traces of one going off would have been found by the police and it would have been reported as a crime.

HOWEVER.

Here are flaws to the landslide theroy.

1. Absolutely no factors other than humans participate in this game board. (Eva-Beatrice, Ep3)
You can argue this only concerned one game. Maybe, maybe not. But if a landslide always supposed to happen, this shouldn't be in red. In fact, this doesn't limit itself to game, but game 'board'.

2. Because of your sin, people die.
Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.

A landslide will happen regardless of if Battler is here or not. And that's the biggest reason why I can't accept a natural disaster.

And lastly... I would rather think of Beatrice as a person instead of a bomb or landslide.
Well the landslide theory isn't perfect, there are actually many points that I consider weak.

The major one is the fact that Beatrice apparently knows that everyone is going to die. The major hint of this are the bank account letters. While the messages in the bottles could be considered a sort of game, the same can't be said with several accounts with 100 million yen each. And the fact that the intended receivers are all close relatives of people that attended the last Ushiromiya family meeting on Rokkenjima (with them as "senders") makes it very difficult to find an alternative plausible theory.

So Beatrice must know that a disaster is going to happen, but normally it is not possible to predict with such a precision a natural disaster. Yeah some might say that Beatrice maybe was "betting" on it on Kinzo's style, but that's not something very satisfying.

So a better option is a man triggered disaster. However it must made it so that the police wouldn't notice, and that is no easy thing to do. A landslide can be triggered to a certain degree, but without some kind of explosive it is almost impossible. The man triggered disaster theory should answer all of your questions.

Now if a landslide was triggered by a bomb, an unexploded bomb from WW2 for example, that could work. Another popular theory is that the boiler (hinted as being defective) exploded.

But it isn't necessary that it was a landslide or a bomb. It is difficult to determine what Ryukishi has in mind, however I think that the chance of some kind of grand scale disaster must have happened somehow.

Of course no one is saying that there were no murders, rather that the disaster plays the role of cleanser, wiping out survivors, removing any trace of crimes, and closing off any chance to make a clear investigation thus allowing the legend of the witch to spread into the world.
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Old 2009-12-06, 11:42   Link #3913
ijriims
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Beatrice could not be a purely natural disaster, I guess.

She said she killed Battler in the end of EP4, if that disaster was purely natural and random, then we are saying Beatrice was a natural disaster as well...

Hey, has anyone forgotten my "bomb blowing mansion and simultaneously accidentally triggering landslide and Rokkenjima was a military base beforehand" hypothesis? It could answered all the questions posted - what killed Battler? Why it was not regarded as a crime? How people in the other episode were killed as well?

In reality, some unused bombs with no maintainence could detonate themselves suddenly, because sometimes the protection coating got deterioated and the chemcials got exposed to oxygen and triggered an explosion. Sometimes electrostatic was built up and formed a spark.

So, if the police believed there were explosives or warheads beneath Rokkenjima initially, they had a good chance to regard the case as accident even there was trace of a massive explosion.

Of course, then all Beatrice needed to do was to put a small bomb (!) next to the explosives, and BOOM
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Old 2009-12-06, 11:48   Link #3914
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Whatever happens at the end of all the games is the reason why the killings happen to begin with. If Battler remembered his sin, I wager he'd know how to stop the disaster from occurring, which is why he survives to the end almost every time.
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Old 2009-12-06, 11:55   Link #3915
ijriims
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My opinion is that if Battler did repent enough in front of real Beatrice, then she would stop the disaster and give him the ring, then she would kill herself. (The gold? Obviously Battler would part half of it with Ange, for sure. And probably Sumadera family would come to be their "guardian" as well)

Why Battler always make to the last? Well, it was more because he usually reside in the guesthouse, which was a bad place to do murders for its small size. Second, he always accompanied with someone holding guns (except ep 4) so he was most likely safe.

Of course, he was the main character so how could he be killed prematurely.
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Old 2009-12-06, 12:06   Link #3916
Jan-Poo
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Battler isn't related to the Sumadera in any way, I don't think they could manage to legally become his guardians.
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Old 2009-12-06, 14:00   Link #3917
Marion
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Battler isn't related to the Sumadera in any way, I don't think they could manage to legally become his guardians.
Agreed. Ange is different because Kyrie is biologically her mother, and Kyrie is related to the Sumadera family. However they have no custody rights over him because Battler isn't related to Kyrie by blood (or legally he isn't, if he is her son)
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Old 2009-12-06, 17:33   Link #3918
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Something possibly interesting that I noticed when I saw a larger version of Episode 6's cover, sorry if it's been pointed out before:

Spoiler for Ep.6:
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Old 2009-12-06, 17:47   Link #3919
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The natural disaster explaination seems odd if we remember the conspiracy theories banging around in 1998. The witch hunt would be much less appealing if their had been an landslide, explosion or other natural event could have explained it easily.
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Old 2009-12-06, 18:05   Link #3920
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Something possibly interesting that I noticed when I saw a larger version of Episode 6's cover, sorry if it's been pointed out before:

Spoiler for Ep.6:
It's possible, since isn't piece-beato usually seen in her suit on the gameboard?
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