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Old 2009-12-07, 18:11   Link #3961
vendredi
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I'm not suggesting that the culprit varies from one episode to the next. Based on the different causes of death, there seem to be two separate killers who both act in each episode. Right now I'm working on a theory where one is the real culprit behind the first twilight murders, and the other is someone (Kanon) trying to identify and kill that culprit.

The bank cards could be payoff or consolation money, so long as the "recipients" were intended victims or accomplices of one of the culprits.
This is a pretty interesting thought actually. So essentially, rather than a game of Clue, we have a giant game of Mafia (if anyone's played that party game). Two killers working at cross odds certainly can account for a lot of the motivations behind the deaths of certain people.

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The letter bottles are a problem with or without the lightning bolt, since as Ange said, message bottles are a terribly uncertain delivery method, and having multiple bottles just reduces the credibility of the story.
We don't get very many details on how the first bottle was found, but it's mentioned during the initial police investigation of the island that one of the bottle messages is found (we don't get any details where and how, however). Later, the other bottle message washes up on shore. This suggests to me the culprit/writer of the messages may have prepared two drafts, one that would always be discovered and one that may or may not be discovered.

Also, we can't be sure that the second bottle washing up on shore might not be staged in some way - perhaps the writer simply took a boat out off the coast, dumped the bottle, and let the tide do it's work, rather than let the bottle drift all the way from Rokkenjima.

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The big problem in your theory is that the idea of Battler killing himself isn't very likely. The idea that Battler has been driven to kill himself merely because all of his close relatives were killed isn't really working for me, especially for the fact that it isn't true.
I'm not too willing to discard the "suicide = last murder in Episode 4" theory; we can't be ever too sure about Battler's mental state, and after all he has just had a confrontation with a figure who has accused him of causing all the deaths due to some unspecified sin in the past. It's quite possible that Battler may come to remember his wrong, be overcome with regret, do something rash, etc.
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Old 2009-12-07, 18:38   Link #3962
Marion
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
And Marion, I'm afraid your points don't seem to make a lot of sense. Narratively, merely being the person who remembers the sin is a bit odd. First of all, it's not between him and her, so why does she even know about it? It implies that not only does a "real Beatrice" exist, she's been around the island for years and nobody but Maria has even heard of her. And then it further suggests that Beatrice knows the sin, and remembers it, and considers it important that Battler remember... but she's not actually going to do anything to make him remember (if we're assuming she's not the culprit). How does that make any narrative sense? Because of Battler's sin, people die. Human beings kill other human beings. But if we believe there's some real-Beatrice around, she's not doing it. Yet by your explanation, her plan would seemingly depend upon someone being killed. How will she manage to stake bodies or whatever if no one gets murdered?

And it still doesn't explain how this Person X Beatrice avoids the red text.
The specific red text is this: The sin is not between Battler and Beatrice. But "Beatrice" is a title. Not to mention the odd way she was acting that time and Battler even noticed something was off.

As far as remembering, it's plainly obvious she wants him to remember by himself. For example: A boy and a girl promise to meet at a restaurant. But the boy forgets and the girl ends up going alone. Now the girl has two choices: tell him off for not coming, or just wait for him to remember and apologize himself. Beatrice is doing the latter, since she is pretty fickle like that.

And I'm not saying at all the human Beatrice is the culprit. However she could have been forced into confronting Battler: especially considering the entire way she was acting crazy but then suddenly became mellow, you can say she was maybe being forced to talk like that until the sin part came up.

There are no more than 17 people on the island. This applies to all games.

But dead people do not count towards the total count, hence why Kinzo was eliminated. Beatrice arrives after the first twilight or even a while after that. It's not impossible at all, considering how quickly the murders were perpetrated. As far as how she got to the island is a mystery, but she could have easily come to it in a similar matter as Erika had.
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Old 2009-12-07, 19:40   Link #3963
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Originally Posted by Marion View Post
But dead people do not count towards the total count, hence why Kinzo was eliminated. Beatrice arrives after the first twilight or even a while after that. It's not impossible at all, considering how quickly the murders were perpetrated. As far as how she got to the island is a mystery, but she could have easily come to it in a similar matter as Erika had.
This is flatly contradicted by her only two appearances on the gameboard both occurring on the 4th. The only way Beatrice could predictably (that is, in most kakera/games/whatever) avoid violating the red text (which she cannot be aware exists) is to arrive sometime early on the 5th (say at 6am sharp, since in most games where the First Twilight happens normally that's when we know for sure everybody's dead already).

But in ep2, she appears (you can argue she isn't really there, but if you do you're shooting yourself in the foot) on the 4th. No one is dead at this point. All six people who will die by the next morning are seen again repeatedly by other people. She cannot be present at this time if she is a 19th person.

In ep4, it's possible someone is already dead when Beatrice appears to Battler. However, consider the possibility that no one is dead when Battler confronts Beatrice. George's death was faked, and Battler has not seen anyone else's corpse at this point. Now what? She could very well once again be Person #19.

And she never shows up on the 5th, the time you say she "could" show up and not violate the rules. So you're asking me to believe there's a 19th Person X (which red, Knox, and just about everything else forbids) who isn't supposed to be able to be on the island, and whose only appearances directly contradict the logic that would theoretically allow an outsider to be present. This is ridiculous. It's insane.
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Old 2009-12-07, 20:01   Link #3964
vendredi
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This is flatly contradicted by her only two appearances on the gameboard both occurring on the 4th. The only way Beatrice could predictably (that is, in most kakera/games/whatever) avoid violating the red text (which she cannot be aware exists) is to arrive sometime early on the 5th (say at 6am sharp, since in most games where the First Twilight happens normally that's when we know for sure everybody's dead already).

But in ep2, she appears (you can argue she isn't really there, but if you do you're shooting yourself in the foot) on the 4th. No one is dead at this point. All six people who will die by the next morning are seen again repeatedly by other people. She cannot be present at this time if she is a 19th person.
I'm not sure if this is exactly Marion's argument, but one thing has been bugging me about:

There are no more than 17 people on the island. This applies to all games.

What's really bugging me here is that there's no sense of time-specificity - a small add on to this statement will change the entire tone of it. For example, we could tighten this statement up by saying:

There are no more than 17 people on the island at any given time.

This seems to be the way we are supposed to take the statement, yet Beato does not out and state it in the red. If there is any additional qualifiers to this statement then things can twist quite considerably. Consider some slightly different amendments:

There are no more than 17 people on the island at the start of Beatrice's "game".
There are no more than 17 people on the island at X time on the first day. (say, before the typhoon sets in)
There are no more than 17 people on the island at the end of each day.

All three of these allow Beatrice to show up on the first day of the family conference, and dodge the typhoon, and stay within the bounds of the red, by timing her arrival appropriately. It could be argued that the "game" starts at different times in each episode as well. (You could make a case that the receipt of Beatrice's letter at dinner is the start of the game; but if I recall correctly there was no letter in Episode 4).

Likely this may simply be splitting hairs but that seems the only way that we can support an actual Beatrice not disguised as one of the characters.
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Old 2009-12-07, 21:08   Link #3965
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Originally Posted by vendredi View Post
There are no more than 17 people on the island at the start of Beatrice's "game".
There are no more than 17 people on the island at X time on the first day. (say, before the typhoon sets in)
There are no more than 17 people on the island at the end of each day.
The "Person X" argument was soundly defeated. For a time I thought that Erika's arrival was a clever dodge of this, but it isn't; Erika explicitly breaks the rules, but it's made okay by stating in red that she's an exception.

In ep4, I believe we're told there are no more than 18 people at the start of the 1986 events. While it's true the red probably is context-sensitive and refers only to the max number of people at any given time (Beatrice will say < 18 after some people have died e.g.), it would be a stupid narrative dodge that I believe has been outright destroyed with the "no person x exists" red.

As Beatrice has said, if you add one person coming in when someone dies, you add more. Where does it end?

But my point remains: Pieces on the game board cannot be aware of the red text. Therefore, any real-Beatrice has to arrive when the rules don't forbid her purely by coincidence and she has to do this every game or she breaks the rules and that can't happen. You require one of two scenarios:

1) Beatrice just happens to arrive when someone has already died. Outright disproven in at least two episodes where, if she arrived when she appeared to every episode, she would be guaranteed to violate the headcount rule (even if she doesn't violate it in THAT episode). Again, I want to stress this: Beatrice has no logical reason to show up at different times (except the scenario I post below) in different games. Therefore if she arrived on the island in ep3 the same time she arrived in ep4, she would violate the red.

2) Beatrice is waiting somewhere off the island and gets radioed or something by a person on the island after the First Twilight (or first killings) and informed she can come to the island. This is so ridiculous it's not even worth discussing but let's discuss some consequences of this: Only Nanjo can be doing it, it implies the First Twilight will always happen even though it always happens differently, it makes no sense why she would need to wait except because of the red text.

It's not happening. "Beatrice is a real person disguised as Kumasawa" is more logical than an independent Beatrice showing up at some point, and you probably know how much contempt I have for that theory.
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Old 2009-12-07, 21:27   Link #3966
Kaisos Erranon
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
But we can't assume just because the detective is around that he won't miss details.
Dlanor implies that if the detective is ever looking for a given detail and it exists, they will find it.

The problem is that the only time I can recall Battler hunting for clues is at the end of Ep4.

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But dead people do not count towards the total count, hence why Kinzo was eliminated.
Kinzo wasn't eliminated 'because he's dead', Kinzo was eliminated because he no longer exists at the time the game begins.

We have no proof that someone dying during the game changes the count at all. That is, dead people might still count as people as long as they aren't dead at the start of the game.

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The "Person X" argument was soundly defeated.
Not only that, it's against the spirit of the game to begin with, like I keep saying... Battler has to suspect one of his relatives, because they're murderers.
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Old 2009-12-07, 22:11   Link #3967
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Not really. Being the detective doesn't mean being omniscient. If there's a detail, Battler won't necessarily find it. Say in the ep1 Second Twilight, the killer really was still in the room. If Battler were omniscient in his role as detective, he would have located anyone who was hiding in the room. In ep2 and beyond, Beatrice uses red to more or less "confirm" that everyone's search of a room (like Jessica's) didn't miss anything.

But we can't assume just because the detective is around that he won't miss details. Merely, he will not be misled by deceptive story presentation. He's clearly being misled by deceptive people; if Battler couldn't be fooled at all, the killers in every episode would need to avoid him at all costs. Therefore, it's not unreasonable he could be misled by a person who appears to him to look and sound unfamiliar. We just know that he was not lied to that this mysterious person appeared to him. He may have been dealing with a person in disguise all the same.

And it still doesn't explain how this Person X Beatrice avoids the red text.
Avoid the red text, avoid the red text. Don't think like a witch and figure how you can make a riddle with it, just try to get around it.

The game starts when the typhoon hits. Before that, at least parts of the first twilight have occured, and somebody has since radioed Beatrice in.

How the hell could 6 grown adults be overpowered all at the same time by one single person?
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Old 2009-12-07, 22:17   Link #3968
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Kinzo wasn't eliminated 'because he's dead', Kinzo was eliminated because he no longer exists at the time the game begins.
Regarding Kinzo's death, do you think he died instantly or due to an illness over a period of time?
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Old 2009-12-07, 22:24   Link #3969
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Originally Posted by Workworkwork View Post
Avoid the red text, avoid the red text. Don't think like a witch and figure how you can make a riddle with it, just try to get around it.

The game starts when the typhoon hits. Before that, at least parts of the first twilight have occured, and somebody has since radioed Beatrice in.

How the hell could 6 grown adults be overpowered all at the same time by one single person?
Poison, for one.
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Old 2009-12-07, 22:28   Link #3970
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Poison, for one.
Knockout drugs as well.

That and the killer probably took them out one at a time when they left. Shannon and Gohda were alone at the time, so it would have been easy to kill them first.
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Old 2009-12-07, 23:17   Link #3971
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Regarding Kinzo's death, do you think he died instantly or due to an illness over a period of time?
I think Nanjo killed him, to be honest.

There's a huge discrepancy between the opening scene of Ep1 and how Nanjo describes Kinzo's death in Ep5, as I recall.

Since I believe that the first scene isn't a fake one, it logically follows that Nanjo is lying in Ep5... and, as always, the question is "why".

Of course, he himself could have been lying to Kinzo about the disease to begin with, perhaps hoping that Kinzo would "give up and die"...

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Poison, for one.
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Originally Posted by Dlanor .A. Nox View Post
Knockout drugs as well.
Were the adults eating during their conference, I wonder?
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Old 2009-12-07, 23:27   Link #3972
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
I think Nanjo killed him, to be honest.

There's a huge discrepancy between the opening scene of Ep1 and how Nanjo describes Kinzo's death in Ep5, as I recall.

Since I believe that the first scene isn't a fake one, it logically follows that Nanjo is lying in Ep5... and, as always, the question is "why".

Of course, he himself could have been lying to Kinzo about the disease to begin with, perhaps hoping that Kinzo would "give up and die"...
I agree that Kinzo was killed. I wonder how much of the scene from episode 5 is true. By the time Natsuhi entered the study he was already dead. Could this be Ryukishi's dirty trick?
I don't know if Nanjo did it but he's definitely suspicious.

A good question then is why did Beatrice refuse to repeat "The 6 were all killed by other people"?
I'm not sure but we know at that point in the game Kinzo's status was still a mystery.
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Old 2009-12-07, 23:37   Link #3973
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Why would Nanjo kill Kinzo, they're best friends. If Nanjo was just hanging around for money I think Kinzo would catch on, considering his experience. As far as a disease goes he could have just been saying that so the other adults wouldn't be suspicious about it - they knew he was dying but didn't know how long it would take, since Nanjo's estimations were lies as well. After all the entire reason they lied about Kinzo being alive was to hold out until Krauss earned enough money back and then declare Kinzo dead and not get evicted from the island.

Also I don't like the idea that George's death was faked. Not to mention that after Battler meets with Beato with his test he goes to the chapel to get the master keys. Then he immediately goes back to the mansion and finds the first twilight victims dead in the dining room, along with Maria's corpse. I hardly believe that six people were killed in such a quick succession. Plus the entire "George faked his death" doesn't make sense to me - Battler clearly saw a hole in George's head and noticed his eyes were opened and rain was falling on them.

My argument is this: a third Beatrice DOES exist, but she is not the culprit. She doesn't exist in EP 2, but she does exist in EP 4. Ryukishi mentioned a dirty trick being used after all.
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Old 2009-12-07, 23:40   Link #3974
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Perhaps a gradual slip of some sort of organ-damaging poison in his absinthe? Wouldn't be too hard to hide really anything in a drink like that.

Then again absinthe itself is kind of an organ-damaging poison .

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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon
Were the adults eating during their conference, I wonder?
It's pretty likely that they were sipping tea.
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Old 2009-12-08, 00:20   Link #3975
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Why would Nanjo kill Kinzo, they're best friends. If Nanjo was just hanging around for money I think Kinzo would catch on, considering his experience. As far as a disease goes he could have just been saying that so the other adults wouldn't be suspicious about it - they knew he was dying but didn't know how long it would take, since Nanjo's estimations were lies as well. After all the entire reason they lied about Kinzo being alive was to hold out until Krauss earned enough money back and then declare Kinzo dead and not get evicted from the island.
If the first scene of Ep1 is in 1985, before Kinzo died, then Nanjo's estimations aren't faked. They may, however, be a lie.

If Kinzo is as twisted and insane as he's presented, he may have either a) not have noticed that Nanjo wanted a share of the inheritance or b) simply not cared.

As for why Nanjo wanted money... well, didn't he have a sick grandchild that needed some kind of expensive, special treatment?

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Ryukishi mentioned a dirty trick being used after all.
The dirty, "venomous" trick, which I believe is the same as his 'trap', is in Ep5, and was originally supposed to be in Ep3...

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Could this be Ryukishi's dirty trick?
It seems too... easy to be a trick like that.

I think the trick/trap is something we've all overlooked. Something deviously simple. Something we've taken for granted. The best mysteries are like this.

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Then again absinthe itself is kind of an organ-damaging poison
Nanjo constantly telling Kinzo to stop drinking probably reinforced the habit, as well. Reverse psychology, Kinzo's childish behaviour, etc.

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Originally Posted by the_rogue View Post
It's pretty likely that they were sipping tea.
Then that's easy. Simply put an overdose of some drug into the tea, wait for the effects to kick in, take them all to the shed, and tear off their faces.

This would imply that it's one of the servants doing this, since the adults only wind up dead when all the servants are still alive after the first twilight... and the servants were the ones to serve them the tea, I'd assume...
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Old 2009-12-08, 00:46   Link #3976
Renall
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Avoid the red text, avoid the red text. Don't think like a witch and figure how you can make a riddle with it, just try to get around it.

The game starts when the typhoon hits. Before that, at least parts of the first twilight have occured, and somebody has since radioed Beatrice in.

How the hell could 6 grown adults be overpowered all at the same time by one single person?
The typhoon starts well before any First Twilight. Where do you even get that idea? The rain starts to fall in the afternoon of the 4th. In at least one episode, these people are provably all still alive. An additional person cannot be there yet.

There's also no indication of when the games start, but it must be early on the 4th, as events are different between games and it's been stated that things which happen before or after the game starts/ends cannot be changed.
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Plus the entire "George faked his death" doesn't make sense to me - Battler clearly saw a hole in George's head and noticed his eyes were opened and rain was falling on them.
George wears glasses!

(But he'd still have to fake a wound very convincingly, say as well as Shannon appearing dead in ep1, probably better since Battler gets to see him)
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Old 2009-12-08, 00:52   Link #3977
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Doesn't matter if he wears glasses If anything that makes it even harder to keep your eyes open for such a long time that you look like you're dead. Plus with that wound in his head which Battler clearly sees gushing out blood.
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Old 2009-12-08, 01:02   Link #3978
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Doesn't matter if he wears glasses If anything that makes it even harder to keep your eyes open for such a long time that you look like you're dead. Plus with that wound in his head which Battler clearly sees gushing out blood.
He doesn't see much blood on the wound. His clothes are bloody though.

All I'm saying is it's possible no one is dead. I don't think it's likely. But if someone is dead, you'd have to explain how a human Beatrice knew this in time to show up early and meet Battler. A disguised person isn't a problem, really.

Also if George is dead, Battler finds nine corpses a little earlier, not that it matters that much.
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Old 2009-12-08, 01:57   Link #3979
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And whose to say she doesn't just appear on the island. Look at Erika - one minute she's not there and the next she is. It's pretty much established that Rokkenjima isn't a closed area to some degree if people can pop up in it so easily.
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Originally Posted by Marion View Post
Beatrice arrives after the first twilight or even a while after that. It's not impossible at all, considering how quickly the murders were perpetrated. As far as how she got to the island is a mystery, but she could have easily come to it in a similar matter as Erika had.
I'm sorry but you are giving for granted something that is incredibly fishy to me.

Do you really think that a 16 years old girl fell of a ship in her bathing suit in the middle of a hurricane and managed to survive in the cold waters of October for who knows many nautical miles drifting to Rokkenjima?

Even when Kawabata expressively said that it is absolutely impossible for a boat to travel in such conditions?

There is absolutely no red that confirms Erika's story, and her character is fishy enough to warrant a good degree of skepticism.


BTW Marion you base your idea that Beatrice must exists because of the Virgilia scene at the start of Ep3. However at the same time you completely discard the Ep2 scenes with suit Beatrice as fake. This is quite an arbitrary perspective imho.

The Virigilia scene could be easily considered a metaphor expecially because there are no such things as witches and the vase didn't really restore itself. This scene can be very easily explained with Jessica as young Beato and Kumasawa as Virgilia. You'd have to think that metaphors are playing in this scene anyway.

And about suit Beato being false I really disagree with this especially considering that Battler then sees her with his own eyes. Those scenes weren't fake, except for Beatrice restoring the candy which was probably an trick. It would be very lame if they were.


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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
I agree that Kinzo was killed. I wonder how much of the scene from episode 5 is true. By the time Natsuhi entered the study he was already dead. Could this be Ryukishi's dirty trick?
I don't know if Nanjo did it but he's definitely suspicious.

A good question then is why did Beatrice refuse to repeat "The 6 were all killed by other people"?
I'm not sure but we know at that point in the game Kinzo's status was still a mystery.
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
I think Nanjo killed him, to be honest.

There's a huge discrepancy between the opening scene of Ep1 and how Nanjo describes Kinzo's death in Ep5, as I recall.
There was no reason for Beatrice to refuse to repeat that the 6 were all killed by other people if it was true. As much as she's fickle this is going kinda overboard. You'd have to think that the whole Ronove blocking Beatrice and taking her away was all part of an act, and for what purpose anyway?

The easiest explanation is that Kinzo died by natural death, I see little reasons to make conjectures about it. As for Nanjo, if none of those scenes are fake then yeah he lied, but it is easier to think he lied because Kinzo told him to never tell anyone about his conditions before his death.
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Old 2009-12-08, 01:59   Link #3980
ijriims
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People defended their beloved theories by throwing out the contexts out of the way...

----------------------------

Somehow I don't get the meaning of Jessica being the Beatrice

Does it mean she was Maria's master?

Does it mean she wrote the letters-in-the-bottle?

Does it mean she sent the bank card and pin?

Does it mean she wrote the pin on the door in EP3?

Or she was none of the above except being Maria's master, by throwing all Ange's observations away?
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