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Old 2010-01-04, 14:01   Link #4901
scwizard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forsaken_Infinity View Post
First off, Knox's rules don't apply to Ep 1.
I disagree strongly.
Beato wanted you to solve it, so she made this game...the riddles of this tale...solvable.
This is the core of the story, not something that applies to only the fifth game. As Ms. Knox explains, this means leaving clues.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:01   Link #4902
CainSonozaki
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I dont really like or believe the Shanon = Kanon theory

Spoiler for reason:


Thats what i think about that theory
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:03   Link #4903
Forsaken_Infinity
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Originally Posted by scwizard View Post
I disagree strongly.
Beato wanted you to solve it, so she made this game...the riddles of this tale...solvable.
This is the core of the story, not something that applies to only the fifth game. As Ms. Knox explains, this means leaving clues.
Its solvable doesn't require that Knox's rules apply to the story. Just before that scene, Virgilia (and even miss Dlanor herself) refuses to declare in red that Knox's rules applied to this game. Its funny that you missed that, since the red you quote is from the same scene -_-

@CainSonozaki, ugh, all your points have been refuted ten times and over, time to read up the claims of people who think Shkanon is true.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:07   Link #4904
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About Shkanon... it does make sense..a lot of actually butI don't buy it...it's a big load of c*** sorry. But many things are just unbelievable.
The children of the Fukuin House are supposed to look at each other as family, right? Means that they most likely know each other briefly. If ShKanon were true...then Kanon is not a actual Fukuin Child since he only was created three years ago. Means that one of the other Fukuin Servant must have noticed that a boy is running aorund who claims to be a Fukuin Child but in reality isn't.
And Battler heard Kanon mourning about Shannon being choosen as a sacrifice. If Shannon really didn't lay there and both were the same person that doesn't make sense at all. It was nowhere implied that Kanon or someoneelse knew that Battler was around so a fake talk would be a lame explanation.

Quote:
from what I hear, if you're going to doubt Shanon = Kanon then there's a bunch of closed room puzzles you have to solve, the central one being "how did Battler escape."
Well, even if you believe in Shkanon then you have to solve a shitload of closed rooms you have to solve. Shkanon doesn't miracally solve everythign you know. "How did Battler escape" isn't solved with just Shkanon. How did Shkanon get out of the room again? Or better where did Shkanon go?

Possibilities to go around Shkanon are that Kanon never was in the cousins room to begin with (but therefore you have to find a way around that red and I still haven't). I can't think of more but

Didn't it say in the new definition of Closed Rooms that they must be created from within? Erika surely didn't do that....she created them from outside.

Also...didn't cousins room have a toilet? As the bathroom and the room itself in Battler's case have been treated as seperate. What about the toilet in the cousins room? (which was stated to be there for sure) That way everyone could have left the cousins room (to go to the toilet).
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:08   Link #4905
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Originally Posted by Arkwright View Post
Copy-pasting:



The second twilight was planned to be fake from the start. Genji drew the magic circle on the door while Kumasawa and Kanon went to get the wire cutter. There was no problem with a servant discovering him drawing the witch's mark on the door, because the servants all knew that they were going to put on a show of "discovering bodies" when they went in the door, and that no one was actually going to be dead in there.
If the second twilight was fake why did George scream and break down crying?

Wait, that doesn't work, because Eva broke down crying in episode five at George's "death". In front of Erika no less.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:10   Link #4906
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Originally Posted by Arkwright View Post
It would be irresponsible for any theory to leave either of these questions unanswered.

And yet, there are no hints in episodes 1-4 suggesting that he is the son of any specific person besides Asumu.

This reminds me of the author's comments regarding people who "wait for a sign that they can start solving the mystery." Because we have not been given a sign as to where Asumu's child is, are we supposed to refrain from speculating? I think it would be irresponsible not to make theories about who the second Battler is. Personally, I'm not satisfied with the explanation "the other Battler died at birth," because then it's just a plot device.

Similarly with the epitaph. Virtually everyone, myself included, does not even consider the solution to the epitaph when they make theories, despite being told multiple times "solve the epitaph first!" If that's not ignoring established facts, I don't know what is. And it appears that the only way to solve it is to fill in the blanks yourself until you find something that works, and then everything will fit together perfectly.
As I said earlier, the problem that I have with this theory is that it directly CONTRADICTS what we already know. The entire point of the Knox rules discussion in Ep. 5 was that all of the clues necessary to solve the mystery were already present. Right now, there is nothing supporting your theory, while there is a lot of established premises that argue against it.

The "sign" comparison that you've talked about is also a bit off, since Ryukishi was referring to people that weren't sure if the mystery was solvable or not. The problem here is that you're assuming things that aren't specified anywhere in the story, and you're making a grand logical leap of faith. The entire point of Ep. 5 was to point out that all of the necessary components to construct the answer are already present, and you shouldn't need to do these kinds of things. If people can't come up with the same conclusions that you came up with, then they'll be left in the cold if that really was the right answer.

Your theory goes directly against what we know about Natsuhi as a character. In other words, your theory has no love.

EDIT: I should also add that this applies for the "Battler being the culprit" theory as well. Battler has not once demonstrated any sort of killing intent towards anyone on the island, while he has repeatedly continued to show compassion for even the hopeless of individuals.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:16   Link #4907
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While all these Shannon=Kanon debate is great, didn't all this debate re-fueled by the end two red text of ep6? But seriously, considering there's always time lag issues with these red text (ie ep3's red text rush), couldn't it be like this?

Between Erika reaching the island, and everyone going to the dining hall to meet her, someone died. Therefore, Erika is indeed the 18th person,(if you don't count dead bodies. Or, perhaps Kinzo's body has been shipped off the island already) and when they all go greet her, there's indeed only 17 people.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:22   Link #4908
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It's more than just that. There's also Kanon lettings Battler out of his closed room.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:22   Link #4909
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Originally Posted by Rias View Post
Between Erika reaching the island, and everyone going to the dining hall to meet her, someone died. Therefore, Erika is indeed the 18th person,(if you don't count dead bodies. Or, perhaps Kinzo's body has been shipped off the island already) and when they all go greet her, there's indeed only 17 people.
This is precisely my line of thoughts, just that nobody would want to comment on it.

Copied from my thread, with some addition:

Shkanon theory? Erika non-existence theory? It is a false dilemma, there is no need to buy one of these two theories because there is a third option, which will save SayoXGeorge and YoshiyaXJessica at the same time.

Quoted from my post in Spec. & Spoiler thread.

Shannon and Kanon made a quarrel AFTER everyone (except Erika) came onto Rokkenjima on 4 Oct 1986, because Yoshiya now wanted to live on to be with Jessica, Yoshiya knew Sayo planned to execute real Beatrice's plan so he tried to stop Sayo. Sayo had no choice but to kill him. All these happened BEFORE Erika arrived.

So, Erika could be the 17th or 18th person on Rokkenjima.

Genji and Sayo hid this fact by claiming Yoshiya was still around. Kanon was a lie to hide Yoshiya's death. Genji and Sayo both shared the identity of Kanon at that time. Or Genji just said to hide the fact that Yoshiya was dead, we needed to do Kanon's job ourselves. Because Kanon was a name for people in work, when they took up the responsibilty of Kanon and were Kanon, it worked perfectly if Battler's plan was to have Kanon (Yoshiya) to do the rescuing, so when Sayo did this, she was acting in Kanon's name and thus it can be said in red it was Kanon who saved Battler (not Yoshiya saving Battler)

Erika never saw Yoshiya in person, however because all other people had seen him a while before, she also believed in Yoshiya's presence.

Sayo got out from her locked room to save Battler, through the window, at the time of Logic Error. She said Kanon did it, but the body was Sayo's.

In other episodes, since Yoshiya did not profess his love to Jessica, he did not revolt against Sayo and Beatrice, so they were two distinct people in other episodes.

Only in EP6 did Erika become the 17th person, in EP5, she were still the 18th person at the time of her coming to Rokkenjima.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:22   Link #4910
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Originally Posted by Kaiba View Post
I'll be quite blunt here. Anyone who can think for a minute that Natsuhi could be a culprit after Episode 5 is an idiot. Ryukishi making her the culprit after that would seriously be the mother of all asspulls, and I'm not even going to look at that. As for why Battler couldn't use the red? Because the trial was inherently unfair, as at that point it gave him the burdens of the detective (can't use supernatural methods) without its privileges.



Because that's what Erika does. Remember what she said to Natsuhi when pulling out her bullshit motive? Even little phrases like "I loved my husband" (something for which there was a ton of evidence) can't be trusted because they are not in red. If anything, I would argue you don't even do that, as your theory pushes and pulls the red around on the Knox rules, I am not you and Battler is not eh culprit, which is something I have little respect for as it merely opens the door to any ridiculous theory.
And just because a theory doesn't violate a red truth doesn't mean it's plausible in the slightest. The Natsuhi theory is "plausible." Aliens charging in and killing everyone for the first four episodes are "plausible" (since the Knox rules don't apply to the first four episodes, according to you). Small bombs are plausible. That doesn't mean that they're not pointless and not an utter waste of time. There's a difference between what's plausible and what's logical according to what we've seen, and a theory of Battler being the culprit, which violates every principle of characterization and common sense.


Probably. If Higurashi and what we've seen of Umineko is an example, Ryukishi likes the outlandish. I don't, and frankly have little interest in outlandish theories, aiming for what is logical and makes the most sense. So my theories are probably wrong, but I will still defend under the banner of rationality.


Beatrice did NOT confirm Shannon's death later. There's been tons of arguments over this, and I argue that Shannon was still alive after the First Twilight.
Shannontrice has different evidence from Shkanon, as it in general ignores Kanon in general. Explain this. What does Shkanon have over Shannontrice, as it needlessly complicates the whole murder plot by adding in a ton of people who have to be in on that conspiracy too, and really has nothing on making the plot easier to go by than Shannontrice? Even if there is supposedly more evidence for Shkanon, which I don't believe, extraordinary claims like there is no Kanon and no one knows about this require far more evidence than a simple claim like Shannon killed everyone. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Sigh. Did I say I believed in the slightest that Natsuhi was the culprit? I merely pointed out that it has yet to be completely refuted because Erika's blue was accepted at the end, HOWEVER PATHETIC IT WAS. Therefore, let me be blunt as well, you fail to consider the other side of the story and that's exactly what ryuukishi07 wanted you to do with all that talk in EP5 about trust and another eye to see things in 3D etc.

There is concrete evidence that Virgilia was referring to another battler when she stated that red truth. For the last time, let me say it again, Battler uses the blue truth that he was the culprit afterwards, he couldn't have used a blue truth that was already refuted, therefore it stands that he isn't the Battler-kun of Virgilia (and same shit with Natsuhi culprit theory of Erika, Battler couldn't use red (or gold) to clearly refute it even after becoming gamemaster and allowed for her blue to stand its own, which is ample evidence that there is at least something fishy). Furthermore, why would Virgilia say "Battler-kun isn't the culprit. Battler-kun didn't kill anyone." instead of "You, the one Ushiromiya Battler I am talking to, aren't the culprit." if her purpose was indeed to prove the innocence of the Battler we see most of the time??

Small bombs are plausible but Aliens aren't. Aliens are refuted by the same red truth as the time-traveler crap, no outside force could have interfered and killed Battler at the end of Ep4.

What does shkanontrice have over shanontrice? I think this is the tenth time I am writing this down today, it explains everything shanontrice does and also solves the problem with the number of people including Erika being 17 and explains how the murders were possible for Sayo even when Shanon/Kanon was pinned in a room by the red truth because both of them aren't pinned together at any point. Its not extra-ordinary claim, its a claim that simplifies the howdunnit.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:30   Link #4911
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Originally Posted by Forsaken_Infinity View Post
Small bombs are plausible but Aliens aren't. Aliens are refuted by the same red truth as the time-traveler crap, no outside force could have interfered and killed Battler at the end of Ep4.
Actually, I stated that the time traveler came from a future Rokkenjima, so he is technically from that island. It doesn't break any red truth literally, so it's as much as a valid truth as yours is according to your logic. Heck, the time traveler himself doesn't need to come to 1986 Rokkenjima, I could just say that he shot a bullet that traveled through time and killed Battler while he was alone on the island. I could solve the entire game this way if I felt like it.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:32   Link #4912
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
This is precisely my line of thoughts, just that nobody would want to comment on it.

Copied from my thread, with some addition:

Shkanon theory? Erika non-existence theory? It is a false dilemma, there is no need to buy one of these two theories because there is a third option, which will save SayoXGeorge and YoshiyaXJessica at the same time.

Quoted from my post in Spec. & Spoiler thread.

Shannon and Kanon made a quarrel AFTER everyone (except Erika) came onto Rokkenjima on 4 Oct 1986, because Yoshiya now wanted to live on to be with Jessica, Yoshiya knew Sayo planned to execute real Beatrice's plan so he tried to stop Sayo. Sayo had no choice but to kill him. All these happened BEFORE Erika arrived.

So, Erika could be the 17th or 18th person on Rokkenjima.

Genji and Sayo hid this fact by claiming Yoshiya was still around. Kanon was a lie to hide Yoshiya's death. Genji and Sayo both shared the identity of Kanon at that time. Or Genji just said to hide the fact that Yoshiya was dead, we needed to do Kanon's job ourselves. Because Kanon was a name for people in work, when they took up the responsibilty of Kanon and were Kanon, it worked perfectly if Battler's plan was to have Kanon (Yoshiya) to do the rescuing, so when Sayo did this, she was acting in Kanon's name and thus it can be said in red it was Kanon who saved Battler (not Yoshiya saving Battler)

Erika never saw Yoshiya in person, however because all other people had seen him a while before, she also believed in Yoshiya's presence.

Sayo got out from her locked room to save Battler, through the window, at the time of Logic Error. She said Kanon did it, but the body was Sayo's.

In other episodes, since Yoshiya did not profess his love to Jessica, he did not revolt against Sayo and Beatrice, so they were two distinct people in other episodes.

Only in EP6 did Erika become the 17th person, in EP5, she were still the 18th person at the time of her coming to Rokkenjima.
Problem with your theory is that Kanon himself had to save Battler; just taking up a name is not good enough. Unless you claim that Shannon's real name is Kanon, no Sayo (which is a possibility). However, at this time, revealing her "true" real name would get flamed as violating knox's rules.

My speculation doesn't eliminate Shannon=Kanon theory nor support it. All it does is that it gives more possibility for people to think about.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:35   Link #4913
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Originally Posted by Archer View Post
Actually, I stated that the time traveler came from a future Rokkenjima, so it is technically from that island. It doesn't break any red truth literally, so it's as much as a valid truth as yours is.
The whole statement is "At this moment, you are all alone in the island and yet you are going to be killed. No outside forces can interfere." Even if a time traveler was to come and kill him, he would have to be there for one moment, the moment the kill happens or he would have to use some outside force to interfere (i.e, the bullet from your ninja-edited post) and create a time paradox. Therefore, it contradicts that red truth.

Even if it didn't, that theory is a devil's proof and I already conceded that you can most likely create another one that doesn't violate any red truth. But there is always hempel's raven to fall back to. You will then have to summon a proof (a strong evidence should suffice) that some random time traveler (or a bullet from future) was there for your devil's proof to work.

Furthermore, devil's proofs, even if they solve the game, are the same as conceding that the murders were the doing of the witch, which is a very valid outcome as of yet. Just that it would mean it didn't get solved from an anti-fantasy perspective.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:39   Link #4914
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Originally Posted by Rias View Post
Problem with your theory is that Kanon himself had to save Battler; just taking up a name is not good enough. Unless you claim that Shannon's real name is Kanon, no Sayo (which is a possibility). However, at this time, revealing her "true" real name would get flamed as violating knox's rules.

My speculation doesn't eliminate Shannon=Kanon theory nor support it. All it does is that it gives more possibility for people to think about.
Sometimes, Kanon was referring to Yoshiya, but here Kanon was referring to a servant working for Rokkenjima family.

Sayo did Kanon's task, in Kanon's name, and if Genji approved they to share the name of Kanon such that when some people asked whether Kanon was doing his job, they could without hesitation said yes (they were doing the job), Sayo was Kanon.

(Keep in mind that because Shannon and Kanon were codenames for work and so if your superior (Genji in this case) said that you had two codenames Shannon and Kanon because you were to do Kanon 's job as well, then this person indeed had a real name Kanon now. If your superior said your codename is Robert, then you can be legitimately called Robert when you were on your work)

And it was indeed the person with the name of Kanon while fulfilling its meaning, who saved Battler.



The beauty of this theory is it avoids the unbelievable cross-dressing and lame split-personality(which was what Shkanon theory would usually incur in explaination. It passed all the red texts as well, of course, the meaning of Kanon was not what people would instinctly think of (Yoshiya) in this theory.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:43   Link #4915
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As far as episode one is concerned:
For Kanon to be alive after his "death", Nanjo alone needs to be part of the conspiracy. This makes this false death the most likely.
For Shannon to be alive after her "death", Hideyoshi and Kanon need to be be part of the conspiracy. This makes this false death the second most likely.
For Hideyoshi to be alive after his "death", Kanon, Genji, Kumasawa and Natsuhi would be need to be part of the conspiracy. This makes this false death the third most likely.
For Eva to be alive after her "death", Kanon, Genji, Kumasawa, Natsuhi and George would need to be part of the conspiracy. In addition to this, Battler, who got a glimpse of the corpse, would have to have misidentified Eva's corpse as dead. This is difficult due to the fact that a stake is sticking out of her forehead. This makes this false death the least likely of the possible false deaths.

No one besides those four could have possibly shot Natsuhi. Do we have any evidence that Natsuhi was lying to Battler about this event?

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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
The beauty of this theory is it avoids the unbelievable cross-dressing and lame split-personality.
Except that Zepar and Furfur symbolically imply that cross dressing is indeed involved :O
Also Battler met a servant who appeared to be a male who was called Kanon (who he did not know until he met them) and a servant who appeared to be female who was called Shannon (who he did not know until he met them).
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:48   Link #4916
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Sigh. Did I say I believed in the slightest that Natsuhi was the culprit? I merely pointed out that it has yet to be completely refuted because Erika's blue was accepted at the end, HOWEVER PATHETIC IT WAS. Therefore, let me be blunt as well, you fail to consider the other side of the story and that's exactly what ryuukishi07 wanted you to do with all that talk in EP5 about trust and another eye to see things in 3D etc.

There is concrete evidence that Virgilia was referring to another battler when she stated that red truth. For the last time, let me say it again, Battler uses the blue truth that he was the culprit afterwards, he couldn't have used a blue truth that was already refuted, therefore it stands that he isn't the Battler-kun of Virgilia (and same shit with Natsuhi culprit theory of Erika, Battler couldn't use red (or gold) to clearly refute it even after becoming gamemaster and allowed for her blue to stand its own, which is ample evidence that there is at least something fishy). Furthermore, why would Virgilia say "Battler-kun isn't the culprit. Battler-kun didn't kill anyone." instead of "You, the one Ushiromiya Battler I am talking to, aren't the culprit." if her purpose was indeed to prove the innocence of the Battler we see most of the time??
...Pure chaos. That's what this place has become I think. Let me help smash the theory pointing Battler as the culprit. First of all, the idea that Knox rules do not apply to the previous games.

Remember the end? It is true that the games were never called an orthodox mystery... But was it ever confirmed unorthodox either? Furthermore, Dlanor herself say that maybe Knox doesn't apply... but she told Battler that if he was ever stuck, to try using it as a guide. And with Virgilia's confirmation that it could be solved, what does Battler do? Oh, find the answer!

As for episode 4, just because he was the last one doesn't mean he's the killer either. How the others died was never confirmed either. I already theorized before that suicide was possible.

Now, that blue... when did Battler ever said it was really him? All he said was a POSSIBILITY. Furthermore, he didn't destroy the Natsuhi theory in red because the goal was to keep the darkness of the island.

Frankly, you have no love. Battler pondered him being the culprit and Virgilia answerd that doubt with the red. Battler trusted that answer, so the least you can do is trust it too. I know we need to find holes, but that's taking a little far.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:51   Link #4917
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Originally Posted by Forsaken_Infinity View Post
The whole statement is "At this moment, you are all alone in the island and yet you are going to be killed. No outside forces can interfere." Even if a time traveler was to come and kill him, he would have to be there for one moment, the moment the kill happens or he would have to use some outside force to interfere (i.e, the bullet from your ninja-edited post) and create a time paradox. Therefore, it contradicts that red truth.

Even if it didn't, that theory is a devil's proof and I already conceded that you can most likely create another one that doesn't violate any red truth. But there is always hempel's raven to fall back to. You will then have to summon a proof (a strong evidence should suffice) that some random time traveler (or a bullet from future) was there for your devil's proof to work.
Actually, the statement is "Nothing outside the island can interfere." It doesn't say anything about outside forces, it just says that nothing outside the island. Furthermore, it doesn't necessarily have to cause a time paradox. I can easily explain that with by saying that it created a stable time loop where Battler dies because an assassin shot him, and the assassin shoots him because Battler was supposed to die.

By the way, for my proof, I can say that nothing in the game contradicts this theory, so it's a valid truth. Furthermore, there is no restriction that states that the blue truth needs a proof anyway, which adds to the legitimacy of my theory. QED.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:54   Link #4918
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Except that Zepar and Furfur symbolically imply that cross dressing is indeed involved :O
Can I just say it was a red herring? Can you see any hints about cross-dressing in EP1-4 at all?

Ryukishi07 knew that Shkannon theory was popular, he knew that he had to store up some popular but false theories in order to prolong the game. He left a particular blindspot in EP5 such that it was not Erika's but Batter's point of view when all the people showed up and latter just declared that Battler's point of view was not reliable in EP5. It was indeed a dirty trick because he seemingly crashed Shkanon theory but left a small space.

In EP6, he made it seemed like Shkanon theory was actually the truth. In fact, it was true, but only in EP6 (not crossdressing, but mere creating scenes which Yoshiya seemed to be alive). But he knew that people would put this theory in use in other episodes as well. If he used Erika's point of view for the parlor scene, then Shkanon theory was crushed. And he intentionally did not explicitly declared it right or wrong as he knew it would spur great discussion. It was really his dirty trick.

He successfully diverted many readers to believe in a full-on Shkanon theory indeed. Such a cunning guy!

-----------------------

For those who believed in Battler being the culprit, wish you good luck!!

The first time I read "The Murder of Roger Ackroyd", it was awesome since the clues were well planted actually. But any latter writers who wanted to copy this plot would just be cheating readers. And sorry, not enough clues pointing to Battler was the culprit as well.
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Old 2010-01-04, 14:56   Link #4919
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Genji and Sayo hid this fact by claiming Yoshiya was still around. Kanon was a lie to hide Yoshiya's death. Genji and Sayo both shared the identity of Kanon at that time.
The only person who can claim Kanon's name is Kanon himself, verified in EP4. Since Battler sees Kanon and refers to him by name, that person is definitely Kanon.

As Rias mentions, this can be subverted is "Kanon" is Shannon's real name also, but that's just an alternative Shkanon interpretation.
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Old 2010-01-04, 15:04   Link #4920
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The only person who can claim Kanon's name is Kanon himself, verified in EP4. Since Battler sees Kanon and refers to him by name, that person is definitely Kanon.

As Rias mentions, this can be subverted is "Kanon" is Shannon's real name also, but that's just an alternative Shkanon interpretation.

The only person who can claim Kanon's name is Kanon (approved by Genji as the codename, and with its corresponding duty and position), any other people would not legitly claim it as they were either not a servant or not doing Kanon's work, but most importantly because they were not assigned Kanon's name by a superior.

Sayo can said she was Kanon when she was doing Kanon's task and Genji assigned an additional codename because of it.

Again, the freedom of interpretation is with me. If Kanon was a real person's name (birth name), then my theory can be dumped, but Kanon was just a code-name.

Some red texts in EP6 distinguished between Sayo and Shannon, Yoshiya and Kanon, (Cornelia's red texts, IIRC so for people saying Yoshiya was not the real name, it was unlikely the case)the mistakes made by Erika this time was not to clarify the meaning of Kanon in the red texts, though she asked for clarification for the definition of rescurer.
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