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Old 2010-01-05, 14:33   Link #5041
chronotrig
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Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.
Spoiler for culprit:

What do you think, everyone?
Oh, and all established with info from EP1-4. The man from 19 years ago bit just makes the case a little stronger.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-01-05 at 14:50.
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:47   Link #5042
Arkwright
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Originally Posted by Archer View Post
As I said earlier, the problem that I have with this theory is that it directly CONTRADICTS what we already know. The entire point of the Knox rules discussion in Ep. 5 was that all of the clues necessary to solve the mystery were already present. Right now, there is nothing supporting your theory, while there is a lot of established premises that argue against it.

The "sign" comparison that you've talked about is also a bit off, since Ryukishi was referring to people that weren't sure if the mystery was solvable or not. The problem here is that you're assuming things that aren't specified anywhere in the story, and you're making a grand logical leap of faith. The entire point of Ep. 5 was to point out that all of the necessary components to construct the answer are already present, and you shouldn't need to do these kinds of things. If people can't come up with the same conclusions that you came up with, then they'll be left in the cold if that really was the right answer.

Your theory goes directly against what we know about Natsuhi as a character. In other words, your theory has no love.

EDIT: I should also add that this applies for the "Battler being the culprit" theory as well. Battler has not once demonstrated any sort of killing intent towards anyone on the island, while he has repeatedly continued to show compassion for even the hopeless of individuals.
I would say that a theory which refuses to answer the two questions regarding Asumu and Battler holds no love for the writer.

I've already said that "assuming things that aren't specified anywhere" is a valid method of reasoning. In fact, episode 4 tells us that this is how we have to fight against a witch. Fire careful shots one at a time and you'll never get anywhere. Instead you need a shotgun - take wide shots in the dark and your chances of "hitting something" will increase.

Spoiler for example:


If Umineko isn't a giant puzzle of exactly that sort, after all the hints that have suggested it thus far, I would be very surprised.

So, I believe all of the questions, including the other Battler, should be answerable by episode 4.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "lots of contradictions." You said it goes against one thing: Natsuhi never treated Jessica as if she were not her own daughter, or ever indicated otherwise. But is there anything in her character that suggests she would? After taking care of her and living with her that long, I don't see why Natsuhi would even hint at Jessica not being her real daughter, much like she thinks of Kinzo as her real father and genuinely believes in her heart that she herself is a true, valuable member of the family.

As for Battler being the culprit, I don't like that at all, no. I only introduced that idea because it was technically possible if you bent the red like Shannon = Kanon must.

But in truth, I think a pre-planned mass murder is out of character for nearly everyone on Rokkenjima, Shannon included (not that Shannon = Kanon must imply Kanon/Shannon is the killer.)
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:50   Link #5043
ijriims
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.
Spoiler for culprit:

What do you think, everyone?
Well, I would prefer a theory where Renon was imposing as Nanjo or Gohda. As she at least got mentioned one more time than Nanjo's granddaughter.

---------------

About Shannon getting the money to pay for the 3 families, all three suggestions had counter-evidence.

Shannon's wage was much more than we have thought: In EP2, George asked Shannon how much you had saved, she said "not much, only a few millions yen". What Nanjo's son saw was at least a hundred millions yen.

Shannon sold one piece of the gold: since the gold piece had no certificate, and it had the Ushiromiya family symbol on it. So it was very difficult to sell it on the market. And if one more piece actually channeled into the market, wouldn't the adults discovered it?

Shannon got secret money from Kinzo: Krauss was very sure that he controlled and overlooked all Kinzo's asset and wealth, only except the 10ton gold. Consider that Krauss was scraping for new cash all the time, he surely had paid a lot of effort to find if Kinzo was hiding some of his wealth.

------------------------------
I support my Kyrie=Beatrice=mastermind of course...

and this explained the money source of course.
------------------------------

The 19th man was IMO, dead 19 years ago. Kyrie knew this from Kumasawa and staged Hideyoshi's death so as to frame Natsuhi, by stationing Genji in that room beforehand, after she inferred that Battler was actually her son based on Rudolf's a few last words.
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:54   Link #5044
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First off, a lot of these arguments sound good and the Gaap = girl-Nanjo idea certainly makes more sense than our good doctor being Gaap.

I guess the obvious first question to throw at this is, how does girl-Nanjo fit in the person count? Is the argument both that Shkanon is correct and that Erika doesn't exist, creating room for Person X who is girl-Nanjo?

If girl-Nanjo is supposed to replace Nanjo in the person count instead, that's a pretty hard mistake for anyone (especially "the detective") to make, I think.

I expect this is less of an issue, but also, does this violate Knox #1?
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:54   Link #5045
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Shannon got secret money from Kinzo: Krauss was very sure that he controlled and overlooked all Kinzo's asset and wealth, only except the 10ton gold. Consider that Krauss was scraping for new cash all the time, he surely had paid a lot of effort to find if Kinzo was hiding some of his wealth.
Well yes, I agree that this third option is the only truly likely one. After all, Lambda confirmed that all of the gold was still in the Golden Land on October 5.

However, if you think Kinzo couldn't hide money from Krauss, I think you need to re-read the start of EP5

The problem with Runon is that there's no direct chain to link her to the money like there is with my theory. My guess is that she does appear, but as the servant who was injured so bad that they had to leave because they insulted Beatrice. Obviously, if Shkanontrice was true, Sayo already had enough motive to dislike her before this final straw.
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:55   Link #5046
ijriims
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Originally Posted by k//eternal View Post
I expect this is less of an issue, but also, does this violate Knox #1?
This violated Knox#1 and Knox#10, I suppose
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:58   Link #5047
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I have gotten comfused as to where the knox rules apply and how much >.<
Could someone explain me thta pelase?
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Old 2010-01-05, 14:58   Link #5048
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
This violated Knox#1 and Knox#10, I suppose
Well, it doesn't violate Knox #1 because Nanjo appeared as soon as they reached the island. It's Knox's 10th that it has to worry about.

However, Knox's 10th doesn't give a timeline for when the evidence has to be shown. In other words, there must be some hint *somewhere" during the question arcs, but that's all.

Remember, Ryuukishi has repeatedly said that the game can't be solved until EP4.

Obviously, the toughest part is how she disguised herself as her grandfather. Maybe she made a mask out of his face...
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:01   Link #5049
ijriims
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Well yes, I agree that this third option is the only truly likely one. After all, Lambda confirmed that all of the gold was still in the Golden Land on October 5.

However, if you think Kinzo couldn't hide money from Krauss, I think you need to re-read the start of EP5

The problem with Runon is that there's no direct chain to link her to the money like there is with my theory. My guess is that she does appear, but as the servant who was injured so bad that they had to leave because they insulted Beatrice. Obviously, if Shkanontrice was true, Sayo already had enough motive to dislike her before this final straw.
The portrait of dumb Krauss was a mis-representation from Lambda.

All the siblings knew that Krauss was extremely ingenious when it came to think of evil plans (EP1), and he was remarkably calm considering all through EP1-4 given that he knew that Kinzo was dead.

Krauss was not as stupid as Lambda showed. He may have mistrusted people often, but he was shrewd and cunning when the situation called for it.

Particularly when he was digging for money from Kinzo's account.
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:02   Link #5050
chronotrig
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The portrait of dumb Krauss was a mis-representation from Lambda.

All the siblings knew that Krauss was extremely ingenious when it came to think of evil plans (EP1), and he was remarkably calm considering all through EP1-4 given that he knew that Kinzo was dead.

Krauss was not as stupid as Lambda showed. He may have mistrusted people often, but he was shrewd and cunning when the situation called for it.
Yes, but that's your opinion. The fact remains that you cannot say "Krauss would have discovered everything Kinzo hid". After all, he never found the gold, right? Or Kuwadorian.
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:04   Link #5051
ijriims
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Yes, but that's your opinion. The fact remains that you cannot say "Krauss would have discovered everything Kinzo hid". After all, he never found the gold, right? Or Kuwadorian.
At the end, the existence of some secret money buried somewhere by Kinzo was a devil's proof.

I cease here.
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:07   Link #5052
chronotrig
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At the end, the existence of some secret money buried somewhere by Kinzo was a devil's proof.

I cease here.
Well, I'd say it's the opposite. We *know* that there was a large amount of money hidden by someone, right? Otherwise, what did Nanjo's son find? The question then simply becomes "whose money was it?" That's more substantial than a Devil's Proof argument.
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:30   Link #5053
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Spoiler for EP6:
err... Unless I have a problem with my script...

Spoiler for Episode 6, end red:
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:31   Link #5054
ijriims
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Well, I'd say it's the opposite. We *know* that there was a large amount of money hidden by someone, right? Otherwise, what did Nanjo's son find? The question then simply becomes "whose money was it?" That's more substantial than a Devil's Proof argument.
Money? No, from the epitaph, we could only infer that there was gold hidden and gold as the only material reward for the epitaph-solver.

IMO, the money belonged to Kyrie. She did not give it to Rudolf because she knew that he probably did not anymore as he was most likely going to die on Rokkenjima. If not, that means they were going to find the gold and he needed not the money from her.

All the other siblings needed cashes in a half-year's time (EP1), consider the "shady" enterprise Rudolf had been doing, he probably could find way to convert the gold into cash.

I cannot disprove what you said. But can you disprove my theory?
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:33   Link #5055
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Money? No, from the epitaph, we could only infer that there was gold hidden and gold as the only material reward for the epitaph-solver.

IMO, the money belonged to Kyrie. She did not give it to Rudolf because she knew that he probably did not anymore as he was most likely going to die on Rokkenjima. If not, that means they were going to find the gold and he needed not the money from her.

All the other siblings needed cashes in a half-year's time (EP1), consider the "shady" enterprise Rudolf had been doing, he probably could find way to convert the gold into cash.

I cannot disprove what you said. But can you disprove my theory?
Then why did Kyrie donate the money to Nanjo's and Kumasawa's family? And why give it to Ange anonymously?
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:45   Link #5056
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Then why did Kyrie donate the money to Nanjo's and Kumasawa's family? And why give it to Ange anonymously?
Consolation money for Nanjo and Kumasawa's families.

Consider that Eva should not survive, Ange getting 100 million yen (actually it should be her maternal grandfather getting the money, since a 6 year old probably does not know how to spend the money) so that she may live through much more easily.

She did not want Ange to know that she was the mastermind behind all. At least not when she was only 6 years old.
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Old 2010-01-05, 15:57   Link #5057
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Consolation money for Nanjo and Kumasawa's families.

Consider that Eva should not survive, Ange getting 100 million yen (actually it should be her maternal grandfather getting the money, since a 6 year old probably does not know how to spend the money) so that she may live through much more easily.

She did not want Ange to know that she was the mastermind behind all. At least not when she was only 6 years old.
Well, definitely not impossible, but we've been shown that Kyrie is extremely ruthless when it comes to money. That doesn't disprove anything, but it makes it less likely that she would do something like that out of the goodness of her heart. In Sayo's case, on the other hand, you clearly have a very conflicted person with a serious grudge.

Also, are you suggesting that Kyrie is Beatrice? The letters sending that money had Beatrice's handwriting on them. If that's the case, Kyrie must also be the one what met with Maria several times and did magic tricks, among other things. Do you know of any reason Kyrie might have had for doing that?
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Old 2010-01-05, 16:06   Link #5058
Arkwright
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Okay, too much person counting discussion. Let's try something new.
Who is the final culprit? Even if Shkanontrice is true and Sayo committed all of the magic murders, that doesn't explain the man from 19 years ago or EP3.

So before I give my theory, I'll name the culprit.
Spoiler for culprit:

What do you think, everyone?
Oh, and all established with info from EP1-4. The man from 19 years ago bit just makes the case a little stronger.
I've said my thoughts on the general Shannon = Kanon = killer theory. The red in episode 3 can even be avoided with no problems if you assume a Person X was the Shannon who died, but that's not what you suggest here.

Well, there's the obvious. Knox's red, and a 19-year old girl disguises herself (and her voice) as her grandfather in front of the detective, and Nanjo's longtime acquaintance Genji, as they let this "doctor" carry away Kanon's body to tend to his wounds...

I don't know. That's already tough for me to imagine as a final revelation.

-I guess you'll have to handle this one. Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!
If Nanjo's granddaughter killed her grandfather before she got to the island, then she is a murderer. Naturally, if she was wearing his face as a mask, somehow...

-When Kanon is attacked in the boiler room in episode 1, Battler comes rushing in. He observes: "The door had been left open a small crack, and it was obvious that someone had left through there in a hurry." Who left through the door?

-Motive. She is going to get the money regardless of whether or not the Ushiromiyas die. Why would she bother sacking (or hiding) her grandfather and heading to the island, if she knows that someone else already plans on killing them? If she hates them so much that she wants to kill them herself, why does she only "help" in episode 3, and why does Shannon die in the first place? She is not a murderer in episode 1 despite how difficult those murders would be for Shannon/Kanon to execute.

-Narrative precedent. Maybe it's just me, but for a character to have such strong personal feelings toward the family that she comes anyway even though she's going to get the money, I would expect those feelings to be indicated before episode 5. We don't really get anything about "Nanjo" other than that he is Kinzo's friend and isn't interested in the family squabbles.
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Old 2010-01-05, 16:18   Link #5059
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Biggest problems with Nanjo's granddaughter being the culprit.

Spoiler for Responses to chrono's points:
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Old 2010-01-05, 16:30   Link #5060
chronotrig
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@arkwright:
Spoiler for size:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arkwright View Post
-Motive. She is going to get the money regardless of whether or not the Ushiromiyas die. Why would she bother sacking (or hiding) her grandfather and heading to the island, if she knows that someone else already plans on killing them? If she hates them so much that she wants to kill them herself, why does she only "help" in episode 3, and why does Shannon die in the first place? She is not a murderer in episode 1 despite how difficult those murders would be for Shannon/Kanon to execute.
Let me add onto my theory to explain these two points:

Spoiler for Nanjo culprit theory:


@Marion:
Spoiler for size:
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