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Old 2010-02-04, 19:16   Link #5901
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
As Marion said a few posts above, Hachijou said that 1998 is a continuation of the EP3 world. Eva died in 1998. Therefore, no one survived to the end of the story.
Wow, so if everyone died of old age that would still count?
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Old 2010-02-04, 19:35   Link #5902
Ssol
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1st version (Feb. 2, 2010)
2nd version (Mar. 17, 2010)

Aug. 11, 2010
Thank you for taking the time to read the 3rd version of this theory. The Japanese text outside of the spoiler tags is not part of the theory so don't worry.
The new format was inspired by another awesome culprit analysis so please take the time to read that one as well.

さて、始めましょうか。

Spoiler for Part 1, Observer:

この物語は、本当は誰の意志によって繰り返されているのだろうか。

Spoiler for Part 2, 07151129:

伝説は胡散の実と共に隠されて…07151129…

Spoiler for Part 3, Ushiromiya Asumu:

右代宮明日夢の無念は、誰が晴らすんですか。

Spoiler for Part 4, Author Analysis:

紅茶を飲むなら、バケモノ同士に限ります。

<See you in hell>
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Last edited by Ssol; 2010-08-11 at 11:12.
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Old 2010-02-04, 20:00   Link #5903
Ronove
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Hmm... if even we were to discover the true culprit(s) of this story, would this change the fact that everyone will die at the end anyways? Reference to the 'Magical Law of Fate'.

So, shouldn't there be this factor that helps discover the danger and hint of the future massacre?

In Higurashi, I really doubt it's a realistic scenary, at the end. This is because Rika has known the past worlds and such, which is a magical element.

If we're doing a Anti-Magical thing, using Battler/Erika as our main Detectives, what hints could there be? What factor triggers the start? It has to be something on the beach perhaps?
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Old 2010-02-04, 20:18   Link #5904
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Wow, so if everyone died of old age that would still count?
As Ssol said, Eva didn't die of old age. She was only in her early sixties.

She did, however, certainly die of "natural causes", if you consider twelve years of pent-up grief and guilt to be natural.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronove View Post
Hmm... if even we were to discover the true culprit(s) of this story, would this change the fact that everyone will die at the end anyways?
Ryukishi has said that the ending might not be that happy.
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Old 2010-02-04, 20:20   Link #5905
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Ryukishi said he's going for a bittersweet ending, my thoughts referring to Battler and Beatrice, but who knows? I'm hoping that in the end everyone or almost everyone is left alive, though.
Or at least my favorite characters 8D /mauled
but uh yeah. If the true mastermind gets a rather sad ending for them, I won't mind, though. Like in Higurashi the true culprit got their sad end, I think the culprit in Umineko should, as well.

And even though the whole murder incident stopped on Rokkenjima, I believe it always went on until the last survivor, Eva, was dead. She was tormented for the rest of her life with a great deal of pain and guilt and getting attacked by the media and pressured. Even though she wasn't killed on the island, she slowly was getting killed inside. So I don't believe it ended just on the island and she died of natural cause or old age.
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Old 2010-02-04, 22:19   Link #5906
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Bliss View Post
Ryukishi said he's going for a bittersweet ending, my thoughts referring to Battler and Beatrice, but who knows? I'm hoping that in the end everyone or almost everyone is left alive, though.
Or at least my favorite characters 8D /mauled
but uh yeah. If the true mastermind gets a rather sad ending for them, I won't mind, though. Like in Higurashi the true culprit got their sad end, I think the culprit in Umineko should, as well.

And even though the whole murder incident stopped on Rokkenjima, I believe it always went on until the last survivor, Eva, was dead. She was tormented for the rest of her life with a great deal of pain and guilt and getting attacked by the media and pressured. Even though she wasn't killed on the island, she slowly was getting killed inside. So I don't believe it ended just on the island and she died of natural cause or old age.
Yeah, I've always thought that it'd be bittersweet in that "Beatrice" is really only somebody's alternate personality and not a real person, and while most of the rest of the cast will probably get a happy ending/resolve their family issues Battler's going to have to say goodbye . (or somebody gets left in the cold and people get mad)

The actual quote was something like "it won't necessarily be a happy ending where everyone survives", but it was said before EP4. Hence I'm filing that as a troll, at least for now .

Either that or they all die but live on happy in the Golden Land, but seeing how this was EP6's "ending" I don't think that's the case anymore.

But I'll wait and see what actually happens, because it's funner that way .
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Old 2010-02-05, 02:34   Link #5907
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marion View Post
2) The cigarette bud that Kyrie had in her pocket, along with the boat ticket, an anime only hint but still telling. If she went on the ferry then why did she have that ticket with her?
Ever since I first read the scene, I believed its main purpose was to reveal Kyrie as the culprit.

Her sudden change of heart about abandoning the guesthouse at the exact same time Eva-Beatrice commences her activities can’t be a coincidence, it has to signify something (maybe the fact that the real Kyrie has been replaced by Kasumi/Asumu around that time, who until then were in hiding somewhere on the island?).

And now that scene, when R07 has gone to all the trouble showing us the contents of Kyrie’s (?) pockets. There has to be a major clue regarding Kyrie somewhere in those things she had on her if she’s indeed the culprit. The ticket stub would obviously be one, but since it’s the anime only thing, I guess it was added on R07 request to further emphasize some other, not so obvious SN-only hint. I’m talking about a cigarette butt they found. What if instead of drawing suspicion to Eva its actual purpose was to implicate Kyrie? The only thing I could come up with is the following: the butt actually belonged not to Hideyoshi, but to the person being examined, and since Kyrie didn’t smoke it follows that person was not Kyrie.

Any other ideas, everyone?
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Last edited by Dr. Akagi; 2010-02-05 at 03:48. Reason: Getting old, confusing my MILFs...
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Old 2010-02-05, 03:25   Link #5908
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I don't think the scene were you see Kyrie telling Rudolf that she wanted to go to the mansion was false. In other words that really was her idea.

If she was the culprit then that could have been her way to isolate two victims to kill and have at the same time a chance to feign her own death. However she still died in the end unless there's some dirty trick in the reds.

But what kind of explanation Kyrie gave to Rudolf in order to convince him that they had to go to the mansion? It's really hard to imagine... certainly it wasn't for the food, and I doubt it was to question Hideyoshi either...
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Old 2010-02-05, 03:53   Link #5909
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Maybe she (lied to him that) has solved the epitaph and it had something to do with the mansion?

But we are getting off topic here. I still ask you to scrutinize the Kyrie stripsearch scene.
I regard it as very important plotwise, regardless of the fact that Kyrie may or may not be the ultimate mastermind.

Just think about it for a second. What obvious purpose has that scene to serve? Don't tell me it's to further frame Eva, since that has already been established both before and after that scene (and far more effectively, when she kills Battler, for instance). So there has to be another reason for that scene and it has to do with the contents of Kyrie's pockets.

Those contents definitely tell us something:

1) Kyrie is the culprit; or
2) Eva is not the culprit; or
3) Kyrie was being coerced by someone which explains her strange behaviour prior to her "death"; or
4) something else.

But whatever it is, I'm betting it's clearly there in the things they examined. Otherwise, the scene serves no purpose.
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Old 2010-02-05, 04:20   Link #5910
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checking in the novel it says:

"Laid on the floor, ......was a handkerchief, tissue, a key to her house, the stub of a boat ticket, a lighter, a cigarette butt, and a single hundred yen coin..."

there doesn't seem to be anything suspicious apart from the cigarette butt and the boat ticket.

Well I might say that it is unusual that she has the key to her house with herself but she doesn't have any document nor money (except the coin). If it wasn't for the key to her house I'd think she just left the stuff she didn't need right there in Rokkenjima in her room, but then why she kept the key of her house? But I think I can pass on that...

The boat ticket is strange because I don't think she needed one to board Captain Kawabata's boat, and no other travel by sea has been mentioned. However why she would still have that boat ticket? After all she must have tossed away the airplane ticket.

Anyway it is still possible that the important factor here is the cigarette butt although for different reasons than what Battler thought.
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Old 2010-02-05, 04:34   Link #5911
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
checking in the novel it says:

"Laid on the floor, ......was a handkerchief, tissue, a key to her house, the stub of a boat ticket, a lighter, a cigarette butt, and a single hundred yen coin..."
The coin is also suspicious, if one consider how much a penny like that could be useful, especially on Rokkenjima.

What can a coin be useful except in payment? Maybe it was to make noise and attract people?

A stub of a boat ticket? I remember that in EP1 the adults said that they used to take boat to come to Niijima before they took the plane. Certainly the boat service was still functional. Certainly one can purchase a boat ticket on site but to buy a plane ticket, one has to leave records at the airline company.

Realize where I am getting to?
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Old 2010-02-05, 04:36   Link #5912
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I thought Ssol's explanation for those twilights, which was really interesting because it has Kyrie questioning both Rudolf and Hideyoshi, which seems like something she would do.

As for why she decided to go back to the mansion I don't know, but I have a couple of theories.

1. Kyrie left something in the mansion that was more important than food. Possibly something to help her fake her own death or a piece of evidence that would show that she had murdered someone.

2. The three decided to look for Kinzo inside the mansion. Maybe Kyrie wanted to confirm he was alive.

3. Just murder

We could assume that the real explanation for why they went into the mansion wasn't food, but something trivial and that the food was a pretense to go there. For example Kyrie could explain to Rudolf that she left her makeup in the mansion, and that it was a trivial thing ,but that she would feel better with it. Rudolf , as planned, being the ladies man that he is, acted brave and offered to go and get it for her. Kyrie negates the idea, but Rudolf insists. Kyrie then told him that they'd need an excuse to go into the mansion so she suggest on getting food. They get Hideyoshi to go with them and help them to get "food" than such and such happens.

In this theory she does indeed suggest to get food, but the food is an excuse for another motive. And only Hideyoshi doesn't know that they're not really getting food.
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Old 2010-02-05, 05:05   Link #5913
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Realize where I am getting to?
That Kyrie used to go to Rokkenjima in secret. But there are two strange facts about this:

First: there are no public boats that go to Rokkenjima so Kyrie needed a personal boat or some trusted person to ferry her there, at which point wouldn't be better to have one to bring her there directly from Tokyo? While it isn't as bad as an airplane it is still risky to take a ferry where she might have been seen by many witnesses

Second: she certainly didn't take any boat in October5 nor October4 so why did she still have that boat ticket with her? That's kinda careless considering you are assuming she took precautions so no one would suspect she went to Rokkenjima outside of Family meetings.
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Old 2010-02-05, 09:58   Link #5914
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There are many ways to get around the first twilights in episode 1 and 2.
Given that my main objection to Kyrietrice is that exact thing, what are those ways? Battler clearly saw the body. You can't fake a death like that, and there were no body doubles as stated by the red. And Episode 2 is even worse for her. So how do you get around that?
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Old 2010-02-05, 12:55   Link #5915
ijriims
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That Kyrie used to go to Rokkenjima in secret. But there are two strange facts about this:

First: there are no public boats that go to Rokkenjima so Kyrie needed a personal boat or some trusted person to ferry her there, at which point wouldn't be better to have one to bring her there directly from Tokyo? While it isn't as bad as an airplane it is still risky to take a ferry where she might have been seen by many witnesses

Second: she certainly didn't take any boat in October5 nor October4 so why did she still have that boat ticket with her? That's kinda careless considering you are assuming she took precautions so no one would suspect she went to Rokkenjima outside of Family meetings.
No, I did not say Kyrie went to Rokkenjima in secret.

I meant she got to Niijima by boat to make sure nobody knowed about this.

Something happened in Niijima one day before 4 Oct, 1986, I guess.

Question is why she didn't throw away the boat ticket as it is useless, no matter she was the big bad or not.

Unless she had some sentimental reason to keep the boat stub.
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Old 2010-02-05, 20:23   Link #5916
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Something that's been bothering me for a while:

The ending scroll to Episode 1 mentions "the children were thought to have survived to the end". How would anybody get that idea? And if the bomb / boiler explosion / landslide / volcano hypothesis is correct, why would anybody suspect that the deaths weren't all at once?
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Old 2010-02-05, 20:45   Link #5917
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Well, wasn't a big point of the cigarette that it was Hideyoshi's brand? I remember that from somewhere.

Hm...
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Old 2010-02-05, 21:18   Link #5918
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Something that's been bothering me for a while:

The ending scroll to Episode 1 mentions "the children were thought to have survived to the end". How would anybody get that idea? And if the bomb / boiler explosion / landslide / volcano hypothesis is correct, why would anybody suspect that the deaths weren't all at once?
The letter bottle, remember?
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Old 2010-02-05, 22:15   Link #5919
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I haven't checked the original text, but I'm pretty sure that the "children were believed to have survived to the end" part came before the bottle was mentioned.
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Old 2010-02-05, 22:21   Link #5920
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I haven't checked the original text, but I'm pretty sure that the "children were believed to have survived to the end" part came before the bottle was mentioned.
Well, there's no other explanation.

The ending roll seems to be written by someone 'outside the flow of the series', though.
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