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Old 2010-03-25, 00:59   Link #7021
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Well, from what we see of EP6, it's possible for the Game Master to choose any story as long as it isn't impossible. So, as long as it was possible to fool everyone at least some of the time, the Game Master can use her power to make that happen all of the time. Of course, a "fair" Game Master wouldn't abuse this privilege.

Even so, yes, I believe there are several situations where certain disguises are seen through to one degree or another.
Well let me clarify. I am speaking in game board logic here. So ignore the meta logic for a moment. What I mean is if someone is using a disguise is true someone else must be suspicious of that person being disguised for it to be a mystery. EDIT: There are limits to how far a a piece can deceive people.END EDIT What I want is foreshadowing for at least one or two people being suspicious of the disguise. For example George could be suspicious of Kanon if Shkanon is true. They don't look exactly the same and it's possible that at a glance he might be able to tell the difference (Suit Beatrice says Shannon and Kanon have different skin tones in episode 2. I have a screen-shot of her saying this). I want you to find evidence for at least one character having suspicions of this kind.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-03-25 at 01:11.
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:00   Link #7022
Ssol
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
However, Hachijo never appeared in EP1-4, so she can't be too vitally connected to the overall answer (if we trust what Ryuukishi has said) unless she represents someone else directly.
The theory that the games are stories written by characters within the game can be made from episode 1. (end roll)

so huh
Spoiler for ???? Tea party:
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:12   Link #7023
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Well let me clarify. I am speaking in game board logic here. So ignore the meta logic for a moment. What I mean is if someone is using a disguise is true someone else must be suspicious of that person being disguised for it to be a mystery. What I want is foreshadowing for at least one or two people being suspicious of the disguise. For example George could be suspicious of Kanon if Shkanon is true.
That's not actually one of the rules of the mystery genre, but I think that sort of thing does happen on the island when Battler isn't watching. In the mystery genre, it's only necessary that there be evidence shown to the reader about who's disguised as whom, as well as evidence that the person in the disguise closely resembles the other or has some significant acting ability. Also, remember that Kanon calls Shannon "sis". It's left vague most of the time, but people probably assume that they're siblings. Most people don't make a fuss when siblings resemble each other.

@Ssol:
I think that's one of the reasons these aren't called answer arcs. The specific personality Featherinne cannot be essential to solving the question arcs, so she's there to help move the story forward into new territory, probably like Erika. Personally, I'd rather check out some new territory than just have the answers to the question arcs hinted at over and over again (though he does that too).
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:21   Link #7024
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
@Ssol:
I think that's one of the reasons these aren't called answer arcs. The specific personality Featherinne cannot be essential to solving the question arcs, so she's there to help move the story forward into new territory, probably like Erika. Personally, I'd rather check out some new territory than just have the answers to the question arcs hinted at over and over again (though he does that too).
Featherine is a meta-world character and the answer probably only involves a real world solution so that character is probably not vital to the answer. However, if Hachijou(of course I believe this is an alias and her real name is not Hachijou) is vital to the story then there are hints within the first four games to lead to her true identity right?

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Old 2010-03-25, 01:26   Link #7025
Judoh
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
That's not actually one of the rules of the mystery genre, but I think that sort of thing does happen on the island when Battler isn't watching. In the mystery genre, it's only necessary that there be evidence shown to the reader about who's disguised as whom, as well as evidence that the person in the disguise closely resembles the other or has some significant acting ability. Also, remember that Kanon calls Shannon "sis". It's left vague most of the time, but people probably assume that they're siblings. Most people don't make a fuss when siblings resemble each other.
Well I'm being very specific about what kind of clues I want here. I'm asking for very specific hints for you to look back at the story for so I can accept this theory. All you need to do is find them for me.

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED...!!

What I am presenting to you is a hypothetical situation. Let's just say a red popped up that said: At least one person had suspicions of X's disguise

This is the kind of situation I want you to find hints for.

As for mysteries not needing this kind of rule even though Higurashi wasn't a bonified mystery it still had two people suspecting that Mion was able to disguise as Shion. Those people are Keiichi and Rena so there was foreshadowing for that to work. Even if it's a small piece of white text I want you to look back and find at least one sentence where someone is suspicous of the person in disguise acting strangely. Not necessarily being in disguise, but at least a clue for them acting out of character. I beleive a human person must have these kind of limitations for it to work.
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:27   Link #7026
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For the author theory to even really make any sense, the author would have to be someone with some degree of story relevance; therefore, if Hachijo Touya isn't an alias for someone who exists in 1-4, I can't really see why the overarching story would focus on her opinion of pretty much anything. Which isn't to say it might not be insightful, but it wouldn't be "what it's about," which would pretty much make the author theory moot (except perhaps as secondary commentary on the nature of writing itself).

EDIT: Just to be clear, I'm not saying she ISN'T exactly such a person. I don't actually know. Ssol's theory would make her a person mentioned and relevant but not actually present. Authorial Shkanon would make it somebody else. Surprise Battler Option would also work, I suppose.
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:38   Link #7027
Judoh
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I'll add one more hypothetical gold for Nanjo granddaughter theory same requirements as ^

Nanjo Onee san, your disguise was almost perfect! But with the slip of the tongue you let that person know about your disguise!
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:43   Link #7028
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@Judoh:
Sorry, but I'm not sure why you're asking for something so specific. Surely there are other ways to satisfy Knox's 8th instead of "they seen were acting oddly". If Sayo was Shannon and Kanon since the beginning, then she would have had years of practice acting the parts of both (and, in fact, creating those parts over time as she got used to them).

Here's one hint though: remember in EP4, when Shannon and Kanon are talking after being locked in the dungeon? They mention that it was rare for them both to survive that long into the story. And it's true: the only time both of them are alive after the first twilight is EP2, and Kanon "died" in the second twilight almost immediately after the first.
Plus, look at what happened in EP4. Shannon and Kanon didn't die in the first twilight, but they were never seen by Battler again after that point (alive), only heard from. So this pattern holds for all 4 question arcs and is even commented on inside the story.

Also, as I've mentioned, there are several scenes when Kanon and Shannon are together and the game says "Kanon was so quiet, it was like he wasn't even there". That's a similar description to we get for Beatrice when Shannon sees her taunting Natsuhi.
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:46   Link #7029
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Well I'm being very specific about what kind of clues I want here. I'm asking for very specific hints for you to look back at the story for so I can accept this theory. All you need to do is find them for me.

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED...!!

What I am presenting to you is a hypothetical situation. Let's just say a red popped up that said: At least one person had suspicions of X's disguise

This is the kind of situation I want you to find hints for.

As for mysteries not needing this kind of rule even though Higurashi wasn't a bonified mystery it still had two people suspecting that Mion was able to disguise as Shion. Those people are Keiichi and Rena so there was foreshadowing for that to work. Even if it's a small piece of white text I want you to look back and find at least one sentence where someone is suspicous of the person in disguise acting strangely. Not necessarily being in disguise, but at least a clue for them acting out of character. I beleive a human person must have these kind of limitations for it to work.
I think you brought up a good point a while back regarding the lack of foreshadowing for a voice disguise. This leads me to believe that if Shkanon were true then either:
  • They did not know Sayo's voice to begin with or were ignorant of it(Battler, Maria, mabye some of the adults)
  • They were involved with the deception from the beginning
I wonder if there are enough hints within the first four games to support the answer given to us in episode 5 where Natsuhi was manipulated (The call was before Oct. 4th)

That could explain why she is not saying anything about it. The adults might be focused on their plan to corner Krauss and not notice Shkanon. It's just very difficult to construct the theory because of this.
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Old 2010-03-25, 01:57   Link #7030
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The only significant hint I can really come up with is that Natsuhi's personality changes after the eagle-in-your-heart scene. She is much more resolute and aggressive, and even a bit paranoid. But you could explain that with her imaginary Kinzo alone, couldn't you?

So long as Krauss is still alive, it doesn't appear Natsuhi is manipulated enough to visibly change her personality. But when Krauss isn't alive, there are other explanations that don't require someone manipulating her.

Remember though: We can't even be sure Lambda didn't just throw that part in to spice things up and confuse everyone.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:01   Link #7031
Judoh
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
@Judoh:
Sorry, but I'm not sure why you're asking for something so specific. Surely there are other ways to satisfy Knox's 8th instead of "they seen were acting oddly". If Sayo was Shannon and Kanon since the beginning, then she would have had years of practice acting the parts of both (and, in fact, creating those parts over time as she got used to them)
Well the reason I'm asking something so specific is because I beleive the pieces have limitations. Well this is just my interpretation, but there is a red that says: There have been no hints suggesting that someone had disguised themselves as Rosa! What hints are not there for Dlanor to be able to say that? If she was dead they could be stolen or if she had extra clothes in her suit case her clothes could be used for the disguise so that's not a problem. Looking like her may not be a problem either because all of the women have make up and Jessica might have a few wigs from cosplaying. The only clue I don't see for someon disguising as Rosa is that someone has to suspecting her and think she's acting strange. In other words since none of the previous hints aren't there the reason Dlanor should be able to say that red is because of this argument: There is no foreshadowing of someone thinking she's acting different than the usual Rosa therefore even if someone could disguise as her there are no hints for that to happen at all. Because human pieces have limitation and stories have a thing called foreshadowing. Someone must be able to see through a disguise to find out it's a disguise or the mystery is not solvable. And all mysteries must be solvable!

You don't have to find the hints right away. But I think you should at least think on it and come back after you have.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:12   Link #7032
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@Judoh:
And you don't think any of the things I suggested count as hints? Remember, we aren't talking about a hint that character A dressed up as character B. We're saying that character X is dressing up as both A and B. If that's the case, then character X would want to kill off A or B as soon as possible, and that's what happens with Shannon and Kanon.
If that's the case, then when character A and B are together, there must be a falsehood at work. In multiple scenes, you have the "infinitely silent Kanon" hinting that there is a falsehood.

Also, and this goes a bit into the second rule of magic, we have proof that someone on this island knew a meditation technique for creating complex fictional characters in her mind, something similar to what actors often do when going on stage (you can't just act the part, you have to be the part). This person was the Beatrice who taught Maria magic, and from the beginning of EP2, we have evidence that Shannon not only knew about the same "furniture" that Ange imagined floating around her, Shannon even imagined the character Beatrice was floating around her. This strongly hints that Shannon is Maria's Beatrice, which suggests that the meditation technique was known of and used by Shannon too. Since Shannon calls herself furniture and we already know that "furniture" is the word used to refer to these fictional characters, it's reasonable to assume that "Shannon" is a fictional character.

Now, what I've said here isn't absolute proof, but it is a solvable puzzle. If you try to apply it to the rest of the game, you'll find that it helps you in several completely unrelated places.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:19   Link #7033
Judoh
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Those hints are trivial. I will only accept hints that satisfy my previous requirements as mystery buff. Any and all things suggesting a disguise or imaginary friends are unnecessary. By my requirements you must show hints that it is possible for at least one person to expose the disguise to the detective to solve the mystery in future games or your theory doesn't work! As I've shown: ALL mysteries must be solvable for humans on the game board!

We can't just keep having the lie go unexposed for all eternity. There must be a proper ending to the story.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:29   Link #7034
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Those hints are trivial. I will only accept hints that satisfy my previous requirements as mystery buff. Any and all things suggesting a disguise or imaginary friends are unnecessary. By my requirements you must show hints that it is possible for at least one person to expose the disguise to the detective to solve the mystery in future games or your theory doesn't work! ALL mysteries must be solvable for humans on the game board
I see what you're saying now. Let me ask you this: why? Why on earth is that red text an absolute rule? To put it another way, why would Ryuukishi have written 6 games tied together if it's possible to solve each one individually? Wouldn't it make for a much larger and intricate puzzle if you had to use information from one to solve another? And be honest now: would you really rather that the openings to EP2 and EP4 were a complete and total waste of time for the actual solving of the mystery? As I've suggested, the entire point of EP5 and the gold text was to show that the magical scenes could be used as hints.

As I've said before, it's been made very clear since before the game was released that Umineko is not a standard mystery. If you go into it assuming that anything not mystery is unfair, then you've chosen the wrong series.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:32   Link #7035
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One last thing about the Author theory again...

Quote:
Voyagers are frightened that the ends of their own journeys mean becoming a Creator. As to why they would be frightened of advancing to become a higher-order being, none can understand except they themselves.
When I saw this back in Episode 4, I joked to my friend that, "Of course they'd be scared. As soon as they become Creator they have to deal with schedules, editors and publishing companies!"

That was when I was came up with the theory that Voyagers are like readers and Creators are like writers, like Maria (and her diary.)

So it's clear who Featherine is... now that she's making Bernkastel write the next story. She's an editor! *gasp*
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:34   Link #7036
Judoh
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
I see what you're saying now. Let me ask you this: why? Why on earth is that red text an absolute rule? To put it another way, why would Ryuukishi have written 6 games tied together if it's possible to solve each one individually? Wouldn't it make for a much larger and intricate puzzle if you had to use information from one to solve another? And be honest now: would you really rather that the openings to EP2 and EP4 were a complete and total waste of time for the actual solving of the mystery?

As I've said before, it's been made very clear since before the game was released that Umineko is not a standard mystery. If you go into it assuming that anything not mystery is unfair, then you've chosen the wrong series.
Why? Becuase of this simple fact: Mysteries are solvable but in simple fantasies you have nothing to solve. Therefore it must be a mystery to be solvable.

Ryukishi wrote Umineko and Higurashi for BT as mystery games. That was what attracted people to these stories because what the fans theorized on message boards could affect how the story would be written next. If the simple existence of Knox's rules in red don't confirm for you that this is a mystery game than I have nothing more to say to you.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:38   Link #7037
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Ryukishi claims the mystery (I assume the overall thing) was solvable as of ep4. Assume that's true.

So when ep5 comes out, that leaves four possible states for ep5:
  • Solvable by itself, using only ep5.
  • Solvable only with help from ep1-4.
  • Not solvable without future Chiru episodes.
  • Not solvable at all.
Most of these would require help. That said, ep1 is solvable entirely without future episodes (all you give up for ep1 is some red text, most of which doesn't hinder the more obvious theory anyway). I would argue ep3 is also solvable by itself. So at least one episode is solvable on its own. That doesn't mean any given episode is, however.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:42   Link #7038
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Why? Becuase of this simple fact: Mysteries are solvable but in simple fantasies you have nothing to solve.

Ryukishi wrote Umineko and Higurashi for BT as mystery games. That was what attracted people to these stories because what the fans theorized on message boards could affect how the story would be written next. If the simple existence of Knox's rules in red don't confirm for you that this is a mystery game than I have nothing more to say to you.
Do you remember the scene near the end of EP5? Battler specifically asked Dlanor and Virgilia whether the Knox rules applied to Beato's game, and they didn't answer.
It was Erika and Bern that represented the mystery side in EP5, and if I remember correctly, they were the villains.

Also, your red text is clearly false, but beyond that, there's more in the world than just mysteries and fantasies. I have never suggested that the events on each game board are in any way physically impossible.

Ryuukishi clearly told us "without love, it cannot be seen", meaning that as long as you trust the author, there will be a way to find the solution. His reason for saying this was because this genre Umineko is part of is completely new. If you decide to trust Ryuukishi, he guarantees that it's solvable. If you don't, then good luck.

Quote:
Most of these would require help. That said, ep1 is solvable entirely without future episodes (all you give up for ep1 is some red text, most of which doesn't hinder the more obvious theory anyway). I would argue ep3 is also solvable by itself. So at least one episode is solvable on its own. That doesn't mean any given episode is, however.
That depends on what you mean by solvable. If you mean "find a way that doesn't contradict itself", then yes, it's solvable. If you mean "find the truth, including the why and how for each murder and explaining what led up to the events", then EP1 is not even remotely solvable by itself.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:47   Link #7039
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I count "solving an episode" as who, what, where, when, and a reasonable approximation of why. All of these are possible as of ep1, though guessing why one is taking a vague stab in the dark without future episodes. However, it is possible to guess, and not even all that remote a chance, what led up to it. At least as possible as it is to guess motive in any mystery novel.

"Solving the mystery" is understanding things more deeply, requiring an aggregate view. The mystery was unsolvable at the time of ep1 anyway, if we go on the asserted claim that the mystery was solvable as of 4 (this implies it was not solvable previously, ergo it was not solvable when ep1 was the only episode). However, ep1 itself was solvable from the moment it was released. Ergo, at least one episode is solvable on its own.
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Old 2010-03-25, 02:51   Link #7040
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Is it really possible to guess why someone planned the murders to look like the epitaph? I doubt it. You need to understand the first rule of magic before you can understand Sayo's motivations.
It's absolutely possible. Most people would guess wrong. However, I don't think it's at all remote that someone would guess correctly. I don't think it's a one in a million chance of a new reader getting on the right track from the start if they correctly guessed everything else (obviously if they don't know who, they'll be wrong about much of the rest).

Really, it's not nearly as hard as it might be made out to be. Ep1 certainly isn't, anyway. Ep4, sure, good luck on that one without backstory info. But ep1 and to a lesser extent ep3? Yes, they're solvable, and it may even be possible to nail motive to a reasonable approximation of the truth. Obviously if your standards are set so high that only an exact answer is sufficient, no one will get it, but if your standards are that high then ep1 wasn't solvable when it was released. I disagree strongly.

Or perhaps you should elaborate.
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