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Old 2010-04-09, 18:35   Link #7841
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
What about capital punishment? Thinking murder is "good" as long as the person you kill is "bad". That would be kind of like "Lawful evil" or something.
For this to work, the person doing the killing must believe that every single person they kill truly deserves to die. Since there seems to be no connection that applies to every single person on the island, they would have to be willing to kill innocent people as well as their true targets. Now, it's possible that they dislike everyone else on the island, but I doubt anyone could feel that every person on the island truly deserves to die. So, this would most likely fit into Renall's first category, where the deaths of at least some people are considered a necessary evil towards removing those who "need to die". At least, this would have to apply to anyone willing to bomb the entire mansion, assuming someone did.

Also, I do think there's another closely related possibility. It's hard to pick out anyone with this personality from the people on the island, but some people might just not really care if innocent people die as long as they can "kill who needs to be killed". Uncaring people do exist in the world. However, it does take a special type of person to make that work, as well as a strong, personal reason for wanting someone dead.
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Old 2010-04-09, 18:43   Link #7842
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Well I don't think anyone tries to kill everyone on the island. The explosion may not even be intentional.

Just an example.

under capital punishment Kanon thinks Gohda and a lot of the parents are "bad people" so by his moral standard it's right that they be gone from the world.

Kanon beleives Genji, Shannon and Kumasawa or "good people" so he would think it would be wrong for them to disappear.
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Old 2010-04-09, 19:09   Link #7843
chronotrig
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Well I don't think anyone tries to kill everyone on the island. The explosion may not even be intentional.
If the explosion is accidental, that makes for a really improbable coincidence. Even if you go with full Author Theory, there still has to be someone behind the first message bottle that was found right after the crime. What are the odds that someone would have written a story about everyone dying on October 5, 1986 right before everyone dies on that day by an accident? I'm not saying that the explosion and the bottle are necessarily connected, but that would be a real let-down of the story for an unbelievably unlikely coincidence to be the final culprit.

The only likely possibility I see for an accident is that someone was planning some other kind of trap which backfired and killed everyone. However, if this was the case, it would have to backfire in pretty much the same way in every game. If such a trap exists, there must be proof for it, as well as evidence for how and why it went wrong. Plus, if the explosion led to a landslide, you'd need to find a way that might have been accidental too. Even an explosion large enough to put the mansion in flames probably wouldn't have triggered a landslide unless certain specific conditions were met.
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Old 2010-04-09, 20:31   Link #7844
Oliver
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
The only likely possibility I see for an accident is that someone was planning some other kind of trap which backfired and killed everyone.
There is, actually, another possibility for an accidental explosion -- where an accident starts some process before the game starts, which process results in the explosion at it's end, unless it is somehow discovered and disturbed. I.e. someone lit a 2-3 day long fuse by tossing a cigarette butt wrong, and it is now a fixed part of the game board because it happened before start time. This way, the explosion would be accidental and still would repeat over all games.

That would be extremely contrived and wouldn't make the mystery or the story better, though, so we can only assume that it is intentional. That it always happens at the same time imposes certain constraints, so here are the structural possibilities that come to mind:
  1. Timer explosion set before the first twilight as part of the prearranged plan by a faction/person which plans to kill everyone, no exceptions or second chances. They wouldn't actually be involved in murders, though, unless they're specifically sadistic/vengeful or not very rational, since, if they just plan to get everyone dead, running about killing people results in a pointless duplication of effort which endangers the goal of killing everyone, since it's in their interest everyone sits tight where they are and doesn't try to hide in the forest, or, God forbid, find the Kuwadorian. Murders happening would be very surprising for them.
  2. Same, but the faction plans to save certain individuals other than themselves by guiding them out at the right time, and let the rest die. (Same considerations about murders apply.) Both that and above scenario begs the question of why would anyone set the timer to such a distant moment, when midnight on the first day would do, but there can be numerous good reasons. Space-limited intentional explosions (like ones that would not destroy the guest house but wipe out the mansion) also fall into this group.
  3. Natural deadman switch. The explosion happens if someone does not do a certain action which otherwise prevents something that would happen anyway. The user of the deadman switch is unable to trigger it because of being dead or for another reason, so explosion proceeds unhindered to the time when it would happen normally. Boiler maintenance which needs to have been done but wasn't would be a possible (if a bit stretched) example.
  4. Intentional deadman switch that is created as a fallback in a more complex plan, which may or may not involve murdering someone -- if the switch creator perishes while at their task or captured, everyone dies because the explosion they have set into motion was not stopped. Being captured offers the chance of threatening the captors with the bomb. Scenarios that involve giving the family an automatically enforced time limit for solving the epitaph also fall into this group as they are structurally identical.

I don't think I have a good idea which one to pick right now, but while the most popular option is a variation of type 4, I am leaning towards 1 in a non-vengeful/sadistic, perfectly rational version. No evidence, just a hunch.
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Old 2010-04-09, 20:42   Link #7845
DaBackpack
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Hmm... So the location of the gold is actually a "bomb shelter," then?

That would explain how Eva survived in the end, alone.

The only cases of survivors are those that have either solved the epitaph (and found the secret hideout) or "found the culprit" and possibly stopped the disaster.

Because of this, there is a good chance that such a planned explosion or disaster occurs on the last day.

Although it's kind of strange such an observation did not appear in the police searches, maybe it's a government coverup like the "Hinamizawa Disaster."

Last edited by DaBackpack; 2010-04-09 at 21:23.
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Old 2010-04-09, 20:48   Link #7846
chronotrig
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@Oliver:
Then again, #1 is another pretty big coincidence if the two culprits have no idea what the other is planning and are both trying to kill everyone for completely different reasons on the exact same day. I'd imagine that at least one of the culprits knows who the other is and is either working with them, against them, or simply taking advantage of them.
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Old 2010-04-09, 20:49   Link #7847
Oliver
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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
That would explain how Eva survived in the end, alone.
To be more precise, the text clearly states that Eva was in Kuwadorian at the time of what is referred to as 'accident', and everything inside Kuwadorian was unharmed by whatever it was, including Kinzo's book collection.
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Old 2010-04-09, 20:55   Link #7848
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Well, at the end of game 4, Beato says in red that Battler is the only living human left on the island, yet she is going to kill him. Putting the possibility aside that the Ushiromiyas are all the living dead(ie zombies), can Beato claim that she is going to kill Battler if the cause of his death (ie the explosion) is an accident? Of course, one might be able to argue that Beato accidently set in motion the specific chain of events that would lead to the explosion. Any thoughts?
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Old 2010-04-09, 20:58   Link #7849
Oliver
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
@Oliver:
Then again, #1 is another pretty big coincidence if the two culprits have no idea what the other is planning and are both trying to kill everyone for completely different reasons on the exact same day. I'd imagine that at least one of the culprits knows who the other is and is either working with them, against them, or simply taking advantage of them.
Oh, I think it's more complex than that. Here's a possible scenario:
  • Group A ('team Beatrice') plans to force a succession by getting someone to legitimately solve the puzzle and find the gold, for which it enacts the fake first twilight. They don't plan to kill anyone at all.
  • Group B ('team Bomb') plans to kill everyone for a reason it thinks is 'good' and probably is rational, if very sad. They set the bomb and probably also send the money to families.
  • Group C ('team Exploit') exploits the situation created by group A (whether prior knowledge or A/C sharing of members exists or not it should be possible) to commit murders of the people put to sleep for personal motives as they see a way to get off clean by blaming the murders on group A once the closed circle is broken.

Once group C does this and 'properly re-kills' the first twilight victims, everyone starts suspecting everyone and even group B starts going . But since they are all behaving rationally, the interplay of plans remains predictable.
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Old 2010-04-09, 21:01   Link #7850
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Oh, I think it's more complex than that. Here's a possible scenario:
  • Group A ('team Beatrice') plans to force a succession by getting someone to legitimately solve the puzzle and find the gold, for which it enacts the fake first twilight. They don't plan to kill anyone at all.
  • Group B ('team Bomb') plans to kill everyone for a reason it thinks is 'good' and probably is rational, if very sad. They set the bomb and probably also send the money to families.
  • Group C ('team Exploit') exploits the situation created by group A (whether prior knowledge or A/C sharing of members exists or not it should be possible) to commit murders of the people put to sleep for personal motives as they see a way to get off clean by blaming the murders on group A once the closed circle is broken.
For group B, why not set the bomb for sooner? There's not much reason to wait, is there?
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Old 2010-04-09, 21:05   Link #7851
Kaisos Erranon
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Originally Posted by RockReborn View Post
For group B, why not set the bomb for sooner? There's not much reason to wait, is there?
If Group B is instead the one behind the "Solve the Epitaph" letters, it'd make sense. Maybe the detonation of the bomb depends on whether or not the family works together to solve it...
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Old 2010-04-09, 21:05   Link #7852
Oliver
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Originally Posted by RockReborn View Post
For group B, why not set the bomb for sooner? There's not much reason to wait, is there?
That's the biggest hole in this scenario. The easiest way to plug it is that if the bomb is a boiler explosion, it may need to simmer for quite a while before it can blow up at all. Alternatively, if the 'accident' is a landslide, preparing it may take most of the first day before the first twilight murders occur. (And then it just isn't that easy to stop.)

I didn't say it was a theory, but I do think that the final result is the interplay of at least three independently planning groups.
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Old 2010-04-09, 21:06   Link #7853
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
If Group B is instead the one behind the "Solve the Epitaph" letters, it'd make sense. Maybe the detonation of the bomb depends on whether or not the family works together to solve it...
That would make the bomb a type 4 though, like I described above, while the scenario described assumes a type 1 bomb.
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Old 2010-04-09, 21:10   Link #7854
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Oh, I think it's more complex than that. Here's a possible scenario:
  • Group A ('team Beatrice') plans to force a succession by getting someone to legitimately solve the puzzle and find the gold, for which it enacts the fake first twilight. They don't plan to kill anyone at all.
  • Group B ('team Bomb') plans to kill everyone for a reason it thinks is 'good' and probably is rational, if very sad. They set the bomb and probably also send the money to families.
  • Group C ('team Exploit') exploits the situation created by group A (whether prior knowledge or A/C sharing of members exists or not it should be possible) to commit murders of the people put to sleep for personal motives as they see a way to get off clean by blaming the murders on group A once the closed circle is broken.

Once group C does this and 'properly re-kills' the first twilight victims, everyone starts suspecting everyone and even group B starts going . But since they are all behaving rationally, the interplay of plans remains predictable.
Well, I'm not sure that one is easy to fit to the facts. The same handwriting was on the notebook by someone pretending to be Beatrice to Maria, the message bottle describing the layout of the crimes, and the letters sending the money to people. That makes it sound as though someone was involved in all three groups. It must be possible to pinpoint who this person was, and why they did what they did.
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Old 2010-04-09, 21:23   Link #7855
Oliver
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Well, I'm not sure that one is easy to fit to the facts. The same handwriting was on the notebook by someone pretending to be Beatrice to Maria, the message bottle describing the layout of the crimes, and the letters sending the money to people. That makes it sound as though someone was involved in all three groups. It must be possible to pinpoint who this person was, and why they did what they did.
It's easy enough to outline who could be members of every group, but not easy to define them strictly.
  • Group A naturally includes Maria and whoever wrote in her diary as 'Beatrice', and includes a large part of the servants. Nobody else can do that, and for much of them there is various red saying they are 'not the culprit'. They aren't, but they're still schemers. They, however, do not have access to money to send the families, (I explained why I think it is unlikely that money could come from the hidden gold before) which is why that activity is relegated to group B. Their motive for actually engaging in something that will inevitably cost them their jobs if it fails remains unclear though, but numerous good reasons can be imagined.
  • Group B needs to include an adult, with a bone to grind with the entire family, and access to large quantities of money. Kyrie finding out about the baby switch and that Rudolf is directly involved, but not knowing that Battler could possibly be her son is pretty much the only candidate here...
  • Group C may include any one of the adults or the cousins who is otherwise as a member of group A, who exploits this as a chance to climb the succession ladder.

I didn't say it would hold water, it's just an example of how it is possible to have a seemingly chaotic mess that is still predictable without a single culprit and without anyone doing anything outright insane.
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Old 2010-04-10, 00:32   Link #7856
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
  • Group B needs to include an adult, with a bone to grind with the entire family, and access to large quantities of money. Kyrie finding out about the baby switch and that Rudolf is directly involved, but not knowing that Battler could possibly be her son is pretty much the only candidate here...
    .
I think your forgetting Hideyoshi. Kyrie seems to be very charismatic and persuasive, and she has influence in because of her friends in Kyoto, but I don't think she has a lot of money and she's never said that she hates everyone in the entire family. Hideyoshi however only recently got into debt when his restaurant was stock listed and some group of people took the liberty of buying all of his stocks. That and he talks about how it would be like Kinzo to prank his family with letters from Beatrice to challenge the epitaph and magic circles in episode 3.

Anyway I think Hideyoshi has more money than he lets on. He's definitely in trouble, but he wouldn't need ten tons of gold to buy his stocks back.

Nobody really ends up suspecting the jolly fat man.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-10 at 00:53.
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Old 2010-04-10, 07:06   Link #7857
Oliver
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Anyway I think Hideyoshi has more money than he lets on. He's definitely in trouble, but he wouldn't need ten tons of gold to buy his stocks back.

Nobody really ends up suspecting the jolly fat man.
Actually, about that. Just how sure we really are all the adults have financial problems? Sure, the scene is repeated multiple times, but every time it's subtly or radically different, and they're always discussing without a reliable perspective present. Kyrie is supposed to both be unaware of Rudolf's problems and the originator of the anti-Krauss plot at the same time, which is impossible.

There is probably no doubt about Krauss being in certain trouble, as what is mentioned of it is supported with other evidence (guesthouse hotel and the Kinzo phantom conspiracy, for one) and if my memory of Ep6 spoilers serves me right, Rosa's loan may have been co-signed back when her husband was around, but for everyone else, what other signs are there anyway, and how bad it really is?

What if there are other reasons for the Kinzo phantom conspiracy than financial pressure?

P.S.: Oh, and one more thing I noticed on re-reading of Ep1 with note taking I'm currently engaged in: The guesthouse hotel is supposed to have started construction soon after the completion of the portrait. I.e. while Kinzo was very much alive. It is pretty much impossible to do that without his knowledge if he is alive, no matter how reclusive he is, as this involves a large influx of construction workers and support personnel, not to mention noise. Can we say for sure he didn't care?...

Last edited by Oliver; 2010-04-10 at 07:19.
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Old 2010-04-10, 07:43   Link #7858
Jan-Poo
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As far as I know The guesthouse was completed around the time the portrait was shown. I doubt you can build such a huge thing in less than one year. Especially considering the various problems of transporting materials and the necessary vehicles to that place
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Old 2010-04-10, 07:57   Link #7859
Oliver
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The translation says "It was built the year before last." which doesn't allow us to clearly tell whether it is a start or end date. Regardless, Kinzo clearly was alive all the while.
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Old 2010-04-10, 08:09   Link #7860
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Yes there's very little chance he didn't know, but don't forget that Krauss has been moving a lot of the family assets by his own accord long before Kinzo died. Apparently Kinzo doesn't care since if he did he would have never let Krauss do all those stupid investments.
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