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Old 2010-04-11, 13:04   Link #7921
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
How many times have you read episode 1 Oliver? Thats a very interesting theory.
That's the second time -- with rigorous notes on everything that occurs to me along the way. I'm only posting the most interesting ones, but I'll go through the notes when I'm done and see if any of them add up to something fresh as well.
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Old 2010-04-11, 15:28   Link #7922
Renall
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I like you. You have a lot of new ideas.

This ep1 solution does assume a couple things though:
  • That people really would assume Eva and Hideyoshi went to the same room.
  • That the person who is the killer actually knew this.
  • That the killer knew the doors would be mixed up by any innocent persons (either of Kanon or Genji must be innocent for this theory, as otherwise it's much easier for them to simply lie to cover for the killer).
  • That the behavior of the people who found the letter at the decoy room is predictable (this requires either prescience, or a "handler" among those expected to discover the decoy room who will send the innocents away so they don't discover the "real" door and who will not take the letter away).
These things aren't impossible, but I would caution that some of them are a bit implausible. Don't forget that ep5 gives us some parallels to ep1, and suggests other solutions (hiding in the room proper, etc.).

Are the lights and TV on in Eva and Hideyoshi's room as well? Were they on when the bodies were discovered?
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Old 2010-04-11, 18:03   Link #7923
Vheissu
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since a long time i started formulating a certain theory, since the first time i thought of this i found it pretty interesting so all of my thoughts have directed in that direction, i wanted to post it here after i finished it but it seems that i found the limit my mind alone can reach, so i would be glad if you could read my theory and give your thoughts about it.
i'm not so sure about ep 1 & 2 but i'm really confident about my deductions of ep 3 & 4.
i'm pretty bad at describing things so please bear with me if i say something that's not clear enough, also i warn you, this will be huge and the culprits are very evil.
Spoiler for basics:

now, let's start with the mysteries shall we?
Spoiler for ep 1:

Spoiler for ep 2:

Spoiler for ep 3:

Spoiler for ep 4:

Spoiler for another thoughts:

What do you think everyone?
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Old 2010-04-11, 18:10   Link #7924
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
The murderer killed Eva and Hideyoshi already, but they were in a different room - the one painted up, which Genji and Kanon did not notice being painted up because it's further down the corridor - from three meters away sideways, the paint can't be that apparent on a dark wooden door. The murderer was probably caught painting and needed to quickly hide.

Once Genji and Kanon leave, the murderer emerges from one of the three possible guest rooms, turns off the TV and lights if that was the room Genji and Kanon tried first, and leaves or hides again, moving the letter to the correct room door. When everyone returns, the room with the letter next to it is obviously The One, reinforced by the seal on the door, so nobody notices they were one room off.

I suspect that this is the loophole that allows to solve this locked room in a natural way, one that does not involve deliberately creating it by fixing the chain or magneting it closed.
Wait, I don't get it ;

How does that solve the closed room problem? I mean... the room where Genji tried to enter was locked with the chainlock right? So how did the murderer manage to turn off the TV and the lights? Actually... who set the chainlock it in the first place, if Eva and Hideyoshi weren't there?

If it was the murderer himself, then how was the other room closed off?
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Old 2010-04-11, 18:35   Link #7925
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Of course Beatrice is inactive we already knew that. The way I see it is if I look at it like chess is that she escaped "check" in episode 3, went "on the attack" to the human side in 4, and lost authority over her own piece at the end of 4 when Battler killed her.
I thought that the meta world Beatrice also reflected the situation on the game board for EP5 and 6.

In EP5, she was comatose so the plan started but ran aground right away. First whoever was in the Beatrice faction couldn't get 6 people in the mansion, so had to resort to going for 5 in the guest house. Then the murderer couldn't finish them off before morning came. And then finally due to the disruption by the detective I thought that after Hideyoshi was murdered there wouldn't be any more, or at least not enough for 11. (Despite what Ryukishi said about the murders continuing, I believe he meant that we would know if Erika didn't and wouldn't have further interfered.)

In EP6, I'm actually thinking it was Battler who was put in charge of the First Twilight fakery. It might have been the Beatrice faction but they seemed to go out of their way to avoid him, (i.e. EP5). So the Beatrice faction ideas may have been taken over by Battler who may have even figured out what he needed to know as soon as he landed on the island...
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Old 2010-04-11, 19:20   Link #7926
theacefrehley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Wait, I don't get it ;

How does that solve the closed room problem? I mean... the room where Genji tried to enter was locked with the chainlock right? So how did the murderer manage to turn off the TV and the lights? Actually... who set the chainlock it in the first place, if Eva and Hideyoshi weren't there?

If it was the murderer himself, then how was the other room closed off?
I guess he means the murderer managed to turn off things and set/unset chainlock because he was inside the first room

But for it to work he'd have to be hidden inside the second room, too, with the corpses, or Eva/Hideyoshi would have to set the chainlock before dying
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Old 2010-04-11, 19:48   Link #7927
Jan-Poo
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That's what I'm pointing out, two rooms make things even harder to explain because you have two closed rooms instead of one. So I'm wondering how the theory of the two rooms helps explaining the chainlock.

I can only see how it can help explaining the symbol painted on the door, but only that.
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Old 2010-04-11, 20:15   Link #7928
TkMacintosh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That's what I'm pointing out, two rooms make things even harder to explain because you have two closed rooms instead of one. So I'm wondering how the theory of the two rooms helps explaining the chainlock.

I can only see how it can help explaining the symbol painted on the door, but only that.
I can't quiet remember, but was the chain set before or after Eva and Hideyoshi were killed?

If it was AFTER, then the murderer could've made the room quiet and gone to the first room to make it look like Eva and Hideyoshi were in that room, then when Kanon and Genji left, the murderer moved to the real room, set the chain and hid him/herself under the bed/in the closet/where ever he/she was...

If the chain was set BEFORE they were killed, then I'm just spewing BS and don't know what I'm talking about :x
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Old 2010-04-11, 20:40   Link #7929
Jan-Poo
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But that means the culprit is inside the room of the crime scene at the time they break in, and then how is it different from the usual explanation with just one room?
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Old 2010-04-11, 20:41   Link #7930
SeagullCrazy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TkMacintosh View Post
I can't quiet remember, but was the chain set before or after Eva and Hideyoshi were killed?
Both. That's why it was a closed room, right?

I think this is basically what he's saying happened:

Hideyoshi sets the chain
Culprit breaks in room #1 by cutting the chain
Culprit kills Eva and Hideyoshi
Culprit goes back to the hallway
Culprit enters room #2
Culprit makes room #2 look like Eva and Hideyoshi are in it
Kanon and Genji arrive at room #2
Kanon and Genji leave
Culprit leaves room #2
Culprit paints the magic circle on room #1
Culprit hides inside room #1 and fixes the chain
Kanon cuts the chain on room #1
Culprit leaves room #1 at a later time

I don't see any problems with this, considering it explains the magic circle AND why Genji was able to pull the chain all the way back (you would think a repaired chain wouldn't be so sturdy), while Kanon had an easier time cutting it than he thought. Genji pulled the non-cut chain of room #2, and Kanon cut the repaired chain of room#1.

I like this a lot.
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Old 2010-04-11, 20:51   Link #7931
Jan-Poo
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That's not what Oliver said! At the very least he stated that the magic circle existed already!

and his final comment was

Quote:
I suspect that this is the loophole that allows to solve this locked room in a natural way, one that does not involve deliberately creating it by fixing the chain or magneting it closed.
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Old 2010-04-11, 21:05   Link #7932
rogerpepitone
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I don't think that there are so many doors that Kanon would get confused. He's most likely thinking "first door on the left" or somesuch. I've seen stories where it was believable, but they involved rows of more things that were closer together (phone booths, mailboxes).

And the big problem is, it doesn't explain things much better than the one-room answer.
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Old 2010-04-11, 21:13   Link #7933
SeagullCrazy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That's not what Oliver said! At the very least he stated that the magic circle existed already!

and his final comment was
Oh.

Well, I think a magic circle would draw attention to room #1, right?

EDIT: Oh, I see. So if the circle was drawn before he entered room #2, and the culprit stayed in room #2 then there's a problem with the chain in room #1.

As for that other comment.... I don't know how it solves the chain.
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Old 2010-04-11, 21:13   Link #7934
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
I thought that the meta world Beatrice also reflected the situation on the game board for EP5 and 6.
Yeah she does that's what I was saying. After Battler killed her she lost authority over her piece and the stories aren't written the way she would write them.

And Meta Beatrice DID die. Bernkastel says she's dead in epiosde 5. The only reason Meta Beatrice is still there in episode 5 is because Lambdadelta made that shackle rule.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
In EP6, I'm actually thinking it was Battler who was put in charge of the First Twilight fakery. It might have been the Beatrice faction but they seemed to go out of their way to avoid him, (i.e. EP5). So the Beatrice faction ideas may have been taken over by Battler who may have even figured out what he needed to know as soon as he landed on the island...
To be honest I'm not completely bought on all the first twilights being faked. Let alone Battler being involved in the fakery because that would imply he has some sort of meta knowledge about his plan to be "rescued" by one of the people faking their deaths. You also have to get around the not having a pulse thing and I don't want to use Dlanor's suggestion of being in an insulin coma.
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Old 2010-04-11, 21:29   Link #7935
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
And Meta Beatrice DID die. Bernkastel says she's dead in epiosde 5. The only reason Meta Beatrice is still there in episode 5 is because Lambdadelta made that shackle rule.
You know, if Lambdadelta didn't do that, I wonder if that would've meant that none of the murders would've occured (as the first twilight fakery wouldn't happen, nor would the bomb, and the rest of the chain of events wouldn't come about, etc.) Essentially the mastermind/culprit would've given up.

Makes you wonder, if Lambdadelta represents someone else (George and/or Sayo as has been postulated), then if that mean that they forced the Beatrice faction to continue on despite giving up...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
To be honest I'm not completely bought on all the first twilights being faked. Let alone Battler being involved in the fakery because that would imply he has some sort of meta knowledge about his plan to be "rescued" by one of the people faking their deaths. You also have to get around the not having a pulse thing and I don't want to use Dlanor's suggestion of being in an insulin coma.
Well, we know EP5 and 6 has to be faked as given by the red. Whether Battler is involved is just a theory based on the idea that the meta matches the gameboard...

EP6 Battler is already behaving in a rather suspicious manner, I would say. The whole setting up a distraction and hiding in the closet seems to have been justified by meta-knowledge. But up until EP5 I was dismissing culprit behaviors that require meta-knowledge. Like for example setting the clock to a different time in order to maintain the red about the knock being on midnight.

If he didn't do it with meta-knowledge (i.e. knowing that Erika would be coming), why would he have hid himself? Maybe EP6 is just supposed to be poorly constructed after all. バトラ無能 / Battler is Useless after all. 8)
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Old 2010-04-11, 21:36   Link #7936
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Well, we know EP5 and 6 has to be faked as given by the red. Whether Battler is involved is just a theory based on the idea that the meta matches the gameboard...
Nah... for episode 5 at least that's just Ronove's theory. Jan-poo pointed this out before, but you can explain that situation with the guestroom in episode 5 away by simply saying they were killed in a different room. Erika never saw the bodies.

I can only imagine maybe two people faking to be consistent with episode 1. Episode 2 I just can't see it because they were dead when they were discovered according to the red.

Episode 4 is different though...
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Old 2010-04-11, 21:50   Link #7937
Judoh
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I've been thinking that there are 7 missing people in episode 5 instead of 5 missing people. It's based on the things Erika and Battler said about the epitaph about there needing to be 13 or 11 sacrifices. I think that conversation affected the death count in episode 5. Maybe the murderers didn't know it could be interpreted that way before then. So It kind of looks like (at least to me) that that's why the murders are messed up. We have Virgilia saying there are 5 sacrifices on the first twilight instead of 6 and 1 person was killed on the 2nd twilight instead of two.
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Old 2010-04-11, 22:05   Link #7938
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Nah... for episode 5 at least that's just Ronove's theory. Jan-poo pointed this out before, but you can explain that situation with the guestroom in episode 5 away by simply saying they were killed in a different room. Erika never saw the bodies.
What was that theory? I think I missed it. I thought the red about the people not being moved after they were killed was proof that they were faking at 7am (or 8am, forgot the time exactly) since their 'bodies' went missing after 7am...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I can only imagine maybe two people faking to be consistent with episode 1. Episode 2 I just can't see it because they were dead when they were discovered according to the red.

Episode 4 is different though...
Yah, there's no guarantee that anyone was faking in any of EP1-4, but it's just a theory of mine. The one thing the fakery does do is it allows weaker people to commit the murders more easily, although not necessarily move the bodies. For example it's hard to imagine Kumasawa, Maria, or even Shannon defeating say Eva, Rosa or Kyrie all the time and consistently, but if they were pretending to be dead then it's very trivial...

The other clue that some fakery is going on is that Nanjo is always spared in the first twilight throughout all episodes. After 6 episodes... what is the probability that Nanjo isn't chosen in the first 6 deaths?

EDIT: I worked out the probabilities. 'C' stands for Choose ... i.e. 18 Choose 6. There's a formula for that here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomia...torial_formula

probability of choosing Nanjo in one game
= (17C5 * 1C1) / 18C6
= 6188 * 1 / 18564
= 1/3

probability of not choosing Nanjo in one game
= 1 - 1/3
= 2/3

probability of not choosing Nanjo after 6 games
= 2/3 ^ 6
= 0.08779149519890260631001371742112
= 8.78% or so

probability of not choosing any one person after 6 games
= 2/3 ^ 5
= 0.13168724279835390946502057613169
= 13.17% or so

Probabilities are interesting, but they don't constitute proof. 8)

Last edited by Kylon99; 2010-04-11 at 22:32. Reason: Worked out probabilities.
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Old 2010-04-11, 22:10   Link #7939
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
What was that theory? I think I missed it. I thought the red about the people not being moved after they were killed was proof that they were faking at 7am (or 8am, forgot the time exactly) since their 'bodies' went missing after 7am...
They were never moved. They just died in a different room and everyone lied to Erika about where they were discovered. He proposed this a long time ago.
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Old 2010-04-11, 23:08   Link #7940
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
They were never moved. They just died in a different room and everyone lied to Erika about where they were discovered. He proposed this a long time ago.
That can work for excluding fakery, but what about the red text:

The death of the four in the cousins' room has been proclaimed with the red text!!
The deaths of the four people in the cousins' room have been proclaimed with the red truth!! Furthermore, those corpses were witnessed by a large number of people!! Furthermore, it's already been proclaimed in red that an autopsy would not be mistaken for any of those corpses...!!


The above may not have been translated very well. Not sure if that was from EP5's english patch or not...

Battler's way of getting around the idea that the the people died in the cousin's room was that Lambdadelta indicated that their current session takes place at 24:00 of the second day.

One way of explaining it is that the 'death of the four in the cousin's room' indicates the 'idea' of four dead people in the cousin's room rather than stating that the four people died in that room. But that's a rather nasty twist to the red...

EDIT: Ahh.. umineco.info to the rescue:

いとこ部屋の4人の死亡は赤き真実で宣告されている!!
いとこ部屋の4人の死亡は赤き真実で宣告されている!! そしてその遺体は大勢が確認していますッ!! そ して全ての死体は検死を誤らないとすでに赤き真実で宣言済みです…!!


Looks like a reasonable translation. The original Japanese also feels twisted if we have to think of the 4 people as having died in another room though.

Last edited by Kylon99; 2010-04-11 at 23:24.
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