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Old 2010-04-11, 23:26   Link #7941
LyricalAura
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Nah... for episode 5 at least that's just Ronove's theory. Jan-poo pointed this out before, but you can explain that situation with the guestroom in episode 5 away by simply saying they were killed in a different room. Erika never saw the bodies.

I can only imagine maybe two people faking to be consistent with episode 1. Episode 2 I just can't see it because they were dead when they were discovered according to the red.

Episode 4 is different though...
The fact that Jessica told Battler that "I'll be a corpse with its head split open" suggests that she had some means of faking a split-open head. That means can be applied to EP1 as well, and in any case suggests that someone on Team Beatrice has considerable skill with makeup.

The real cause of death in EP1 and EP2 is not clear; Nanjo even suggested in EP1 that the corpses had been mutilated after death. The victims may have already been dead when they were discovered, but there's still a possibility that they were faking before they were killed, and that the fake cause of death was mistaken for the real one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99
Looks like a reasonable translation. The original Japanese also feels twisted if we have to think of the 4 people as having died in another room though.
It's easy enough to interpret as "The fact that the four people who were in the cousins' room are dead has been proclaimed in red." It doesn't necessarily say anything about where they died. The translation is a little misleading, I think.

Additionally, Erika found the door to the cousins' room open after she returned from checking on Genji in the servants' room. This can be explained if the "victims" left the room, but I don't think there are any clues offering an alternate explanation.
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Old 2010-04-11, 23:47   Link #7942
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I like you. You have a lot of new ideas.
They're rarely complete ideas in any fashion though. This one definitely isn't complete and I was quite sleepy when I wrote it so it came out a bit more jumbled than it should have.

You see, I'm assuming certain things globally about the entirety of the text:
  • The narration minimizes the amount of explicit lying and avoids it entirely if at all possible, but having said one lie, will stick to it for the duration of the episode. So, having said one lie in Ep1 about Krauss and Natsuhi distrusting the one-winged servants, it keeps at it and quietly forgets about it after the episode is over.
  • When it does lie, it prefers lying at points where it would allow to indirectly paint someone who is innocent as guilty or an accomplice, aiming to eventually prove them innocent later in the text (usually by killing them in a fashion that leaves them dead beyond reasonable doubt) It avoids explicitly lying to us about someone who is actually guilty being innocent - it misdirects instead. Anything else would be cheap.
  • While all the characters are involved in planning something shady, or at least, complicatedly manipulative, and lying to other characters, much less of them actually murder anyone than we normally think.
  • Episodes are in an indirect way paired, i.e. 1=5, 2=6, 3=7, 4=8. For example, the most glaringly obvious (and impossible) culprit in Ep1 (Natsuhi, who has the only visible gun and is implicated strongly in the matter of Kinzo's death since Kinzo is supposed to be thought by the reader as alive at this moment) is completely exonerated from any murders in Ep5 in the trial, -- to us, if not to Lambdadelta -- despite being even the more obvious culprit than the first time around. A Chiru episode destroys the wrong solutions from the corresponding episode in the first quad and hints once again at the real ones, they're to confirm the theory you are supposed to form from 1-4, and new mysteries are there mostly for further mental acrobatics so you would stay excited.

The idea with the swapped rooms is mostly a result of realisation that Kinzo's body has to be hidden in the study -- there's simply no other safe location that allows it to be burned in the middle of an episode otherwise. It is presumably immersed in a preservative liquid in the bathroom, which is numerously hinted at with the 'smell', referred to in every scene where Kinzo is present and even in the scenes where he isn't -- Jessica refers to grandfather stinking up the house like this happens often, where, in fact, it couldn't have happened for a year. Eva actually accuses Natsuhi of killing Kinzo and tossing his body out of the window, which Battler 'destroys' by claiming Kinzo must have hidden under the bed. For a reader who is just starting to read the whole series, Natsuhi is a natural target of accusations, (gun holes in skulls with stakes inserted later, Kinzo's body, last alive all the way up until she gets mysteriously shot) and Battler defending her is a minor annoyance.

But now we know that Kinzo has been dead, which explains Natsuhi's behaviour rather well. Natsuhi knows something about the murders, even if she doesn't do any of them herself even before the bodies are discovered, and, after having Kinzo's dead body dwell on her mind for an entire bloody year - visiting it daily! - she gets the bright idea to get rid of it in a safe-ish way and confuse the murderer(s) in one fell swoop, and tosses it out the window into the courtyard - where it's just one door away from the boiler room where it is eventually burned. She then leaves the room happy and pleased that the burden is off her shoulders finally and completely surprises Eva, who nevertheless accuses her of doing exactly that and is exactly correct... Only Natsuhi didn't kill anyone, Kinzo was dead a long time before that. The characters actually go out of their way to call the receipt an 'important hint' several times using the same vocabulary as if the author is feeding them those words.

Well, it is, they're just misdirecting us on what the hint is actually about.

But Kinzo's matter is relatively simple compared to the locked room with chain, which recurs in Ep5 in a very similar fashion. Let us assume that Natsuhi's perspective in Ep5 is reliable and both murders are actually hinting at the very same trick used to commit a murder in a closed room with a chain, variations of which we see in several episodes. If I were the writer, having created some really new and fresh trick, and noticing nobody caught it the first time around, I would definitely try to explain it a second time in a veiled way.

Then, this is what the Ep5 scene does: Battler eventually deduced that the murderer was hiding in the closet. This time around, we get Natsuhi's reliable perspective hidden inside the closet, which kills this idea dead because she didn't see any murderers in the closet, but almost all the start and end conditions are the same. We even get another hint of Eva banging on the door while the murder happens and rushing off for the cutter. Notice also that the chain, while treated structurally equivalent to a bolt or latch in most mystery literature, apparently is the key to this trick and isn't actually equivalent to those in Umineko. Why do the rooms have a chain anyway? It's out of place in the mansion, which was not initially built as a hotel. Servants are extremely cautious about entering the room without permission.

So let's go back to the switching rooms... Regarding your particular points:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
  • That people really would assume Eva and Hideyoshi went to the same room.
  • That the person who is the killer actually knew this.
They definitely would, if Eva and Hideyoshi spent the previous night in their usual room. The killer could know the room changed, for example, if it were originally his or hers own room, and Eva and Hideyoshi were found there unexpectedly.

Mind you, that raises the question of why Kanon and Kumasawa, when visiting the storehouse to get the cutter, do not notice that body or bodies that should be there are missing, but they suspiciously do not mention bodies in this scene at all, nor react to their presence in any kind of expected fashion -- like maybe, flinching, turning away and getting back to the task at hand.

But from a narrative point of view, that would be a really sneaky way to misdirect us too, wouldn't it? You read through this scene, fast, excited - the murderer is trapped! Time is of the essence! How will he get away?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
That the killer knew the doors would be mixed up by any innocent persons (either of Kanon or Genji must be innocent for this theory, as otherwise it's much easier for them to simply lie to cover for the killer).
Reading the text when I'm a bit more awake, I discovered that the killer could make sure this indeed happened.

Genji never locks the first room he checks, nor closes it, it stays on the chain but that's it. As chronotrig points out, he doesn't pick up the letter either, he uses a handkerchief to pull it out and get a better look at the seal, but the letter remains. The text says 'A light seeped through the crack of the door.' which is only possible if the corridor is substantially darker than a lit room. That would make an open door with a chain on visible very plainly and obviously from either end of the corridor a great distance.

So the killer, to misdirect them about the room, only has to turn off the lights and TV, leave the room they were in, unlock the painted room and push the door to stretch the chain. It is now the only room in the corridor with light pouring out of it, not just the one with a conspicuous white envelope next to it.

As a side note, Beatrice tells us later of all of the doors that exist on Rokkenjima, none has a crack through which a key can slip, and wax seals, particularly ones that can fall off the envelope completely, would make a letter thicker than a key. Which means that it wasn't stuck out from inside the room but was added to the room later, but that's a minor point which probably isn't well related.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
That the behavior of the people who found the letter at the decoy room is predictable (this requires either prescience, or a "handler" among those expected to discover the decoy room who will send the innocents away so they don't discover the "real" door and who will not take the letter away).
Not necessarily. We keep forgetting that these people are relatives and employers/employees who had numerous opportunities to study each other's character and formulate expectation theories about the most expected behaviours in a tense situation. This, incidentally, is what a chain-locked room creates -- it appears to the visitors that the murderer has to still be inside the locked room.

The whole reason why I think that the switching rooms trick may be, in some fashion I do not yet know myself, (Yes, yes, I'm assuming trick X. ) a key to this particular room mystery (Please, everyone who thought that I provided a complete theory for it, excuse me, I really didn't. I just have an idea which I'm hoping someone more versed in the genre can complete. ) is that it feels like something that can be done on the spur of the moment, and follow naturally from a single choice made in particular by Eva, which, nevertheless, can and usually will recur. "I'm worried the servants know where I sleep so I'll move to a different room today." Pieces do things according to their nature.

In my imagination, one way it can play out is like this: The murderer just chanced on Eva and Hideyoshi in a room #2. Eva and Hideyoshi moved there, while the murderer thought it was free and was their own hiding place. He had to kill them (with a gun -- Hideyoshi first because he found him in the bath, then Eva came in and dropped onto the bed with her shoes still on) there and then because they knew him for someone who should be dead that actually isn't. So once the deed is done, he is busy painting up the door of the room #2, taking his time, and just about when he's almost done, he hears Genji and Kanon coming up from the corridor. Quickly, he darts into room #1, locks and chains it -- and the TV and lights are on because Eva and Hideyoshi did it earlier for safety. He's trapped! Might have to escape through the window, not a pleasant prospect. But Genji and Kanon leave. He goes out and notices that he dropped the letter.

He knows they'll be back soon with the cutter because Genji orders that rather loudly while the door is open and protected by the chain. Not much time to do anything, but he notices how obvious the door is in the twilight of the corridor, and gets the bright idea -- and sets up room #2 be the lit one. Then he hides in room #1.

How exactly does he create a room that is chained from inside while being on the outside is the real important trick here, but I'm pretty sure it's possible because of how often it recurs in the future episodes. It should somehow be possible without actually breaking the red that protects other rooms of this kind, and is the fundamental trick that Beatrice discovered and gave to Lambda in an envelope in Ep6, if my spoiler memory is correct.
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Old 2010-04-11, 23:49   Link #7943
Kylon99
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
It's easy enough to interpret as "The fact that the four people who were in the cousins' room are dead has been proclaimed in red." It doesn't necessarily say anything about where they died. The translation is a little misleading, I think.

Additionally, Erika found the door to the cousins' room open after she returned from checking on Genji in the servants' room. This can be explained if the "victims" left the room, but I don't think there are any clues offering an alternate explanation.

いとこ部屋の4人の死亡は赤き真実で宣告されている!!

The 死亡 wouldn't be translated as 'being dead' or 'are dead' (like 死んでいる) but it refers to the 'death' of 4 people in the cousins room. It's a noun in this case. But I guess it doesn't matter that much since...

Either way, they are dead and are inside the cousins room. Since they can't be moved after they are dead, it basically comes down to:

1. They were alive when they entered the room. Since the 'bodies' disappeared they must have re-entered the room and were killed for real. Then not moved.

2. They were dead when they entered the room. But the red text blocks this scenario.


Isn't this how the logic works out?
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:07   Link #7944
ijriims
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My understanding of いとこ部屋の4人の死亡は赤き真実で宣告されている!! そしてその遺体は大勢が確認していま すッ!! そ して全ての死体は検死を誤らないとすでに赤き真実で宣言済みです…!! is that the four people who we knew was supposedly inside cousin's room. When the red texts said that their bodies were witnessed, it did not say they were seen in the cousin room. "いとこ部屋の4人" does not mean the four people must be inside cousin room, it was just a term to refer to Rosa, Maria, George and Jessica.

Using fake death hypothesis, it means that the disappearance of the four 'corpses" was just that the four went to the mansion and hid inside one of the many rooms. Then they were killed there and were not moved. Afterwards, the crowd found them. There was no contradiction of the red texts anymore and death is objective death.
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:14   Link #7945
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
いとこ部屋の4人の死亡は赤き真実で宣告されている!!

The 死亡 wouldn't be translated as 'being dead' or 'are dead' (like 死んでいる) but it refers to the 'death' of 4 people in the cousins room. It's a noun in this case. But I guess it doesn't matter that much since...

Either way, they are dead and are inside the cousins room. Since they can't be moved after they are dead, it basically comes down to:

1. They were alive when they entered the room. Since the 'bodies' disappeared they must have re-entered the room and were killed for real. Then not moved.

2. They were dead when they entered the room. But the red text blocks this scenario.


Isn't this how the logic works out?
I was paraphrasing to clarify the meaning. Another way to do it would be: "The deaths of (the four people in the cousins' room) have been proclaimed in red." In other words, "the four people who were in the room at that time are currently (at midnight) dead." This interpretation is consistent with Bernkastel's prior statement that George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji are all dead.

You're parsing it as: "(The deaths of the four people) in the cousins' room have been proclaimed in red." In other words, "the four people died in the cousins' room." Bernkastel didn't specify a location when she declared the deaths earlier, so this interpretation would create a false red.

So basically, the red says nothing about where the deaths actually occurred. We can only theorize based on the open door that the victims were actually alive and in the cousins' room at 7:00am, and that they left afterward. It's also possible to think that they had already left the room the previous night before Erika started listening at the wall, but then you would need an alternate explanation for the door being opened in the morning.
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:17   Link #7946
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
How does that solve the closed room problem?
It doesn't. Sorry. I think it might provide a way but I don't know how yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
I think this is basically what he's saying happened:
I didn't say that happened, but, that might be closer to the truth than I was.
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:22   Link #7947
ijriims
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
So basically, the red says nothing about where the deaths actually occurred. We can only theorize based on the open door that the victims were actually alive and in the cousins' room at 7:00am, and that they left afterward. It's also possible to think that they had already left the room the previous night before Erika started listening at the wall, but then you would need an alternate explanation for the door being opened in the morning.
From my very limited Japanese knowledge, the use of "の" has a very broad meaning. It could mean "four people in the cousin room","four people from the cousin room", "four people of the cousin room".

And that red texts were declared after 00:00 Oct 6 (during the first judgment was passed), it was true that all the four people were inside cousin room at 7:00 am on 5th Oct. However, when the red texts were declared, they were already dead somewhere else but they were still refered to as "いとこ部屋の4人"

And one more thing, the cousin room was supposedly bigger than other guest rooms in the guesthouse(EP1), so it was arranged before the group came. So Natsuhi would not mistake the cousin room. In this case, if they were not pretending dead at 7:00am, the only possibility remained that they were initially killed in some other rooms but the group lied to Natsuhi that they died in cousin room. However, "いとこ部屋の4人" is still used, which proved that it did not mean the four were killed in the cousin room and remained so.
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:30   Link #7948
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
From my very limited Japanese knowledge, the use of "の" has a very broad meaning. It could mean "four people in the cousin room","four people from the cousin room", "four people of the cousin room".
This is why I hesitate to say that the red confirms they were actually in the room at that time. Because there have been examples of the red referring to subjective elements, there's a possibility that it means "the four people who were portrayed as being in the cousins' room in that scene." I don't actually believe that's what it means in this case, but I can't completely deny the possibility either.
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:37   Link #7949
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
You're parsing it as: "(The deaths of the four people) in the cousins' room have been proclaimed in red." In other words, "the four people died in the cousins' room." Bernkastel didn't specify a location when she declared the deaths earlier, so this interpretation would create a false red.
I guess if we add this nuance in then it should be "The four dead from the cousin's room." My point is, can this be interpreted as "The four dead from the cousin's room--as we were led to believe but they were actually killed in a different room?"

How are we to interpret the red? Is something that it can mention off-hand also reliable, or is it not?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
So basically, the red says nothing about where the deaths actually occurred. We can only theorize based on the open door that the victims were actually alive and in the cousins' room at 7:00am, and that they left afterward. It's also possible to think that they had already left the room the previous night before Erika started listening at the wall, but then you would need an alternate explanation for the door being opened in the morning.
Ok, let me try to make a point here which I think you guys are missing. I'm not arguing against their faking their deaths, I'm trying to find a loop hole in the logic that allows for them to have really been dead at 7am, which I don't think is realistic.

So far the mention of 'the four dead from the cousin's room' pretty much seals that unless the red can be twisted so that what it says is not what it says. I don't think this is likely but then we have the red referring to corpses that are not corpses, supposedly.


In other words:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Using fake death hypothesis, it means that the disappearance of the four 'corpses" was just that the four went to the mansion and hid inside one of the many rooms. Then they were killed there and were not moved. Afterwards, the crowd found them. There was no contradiction of the red texts anymore and death is objective death.
I want to guarantee this scenario. Is this possible?

EDIT
@ijirims later post

I guess it's not provable yet then. This kinda illustrates how difficult it is to find the solution to this game if your level is 'proof.' It seems like any 'proof' can be theorized away. I have a feeling we need to lower our standards to 'evidence' instead...
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:42   Link #7950
ijriims
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I want to guarantee this scenario. Is this possible?
If I was correct, this happened after the scene of Hideyoshi being killed (or not). Not shown on the screen. The gap time period between what happened between 14:00 and the trial at 24:00.

No guarantee, sorry.

-------------

The fake death was hinted very strongly in EP5, especially from the sentence of Bern "アクロイドが誰もいなくなったと思ったら。……これはいつの間にか。とんだ傑作選ね"

Referring to "the Murder of Roger Ackroyd"(in Japanese アクロイド殺し), "And then there were none" (in Japanese そして誰もいなくなった).

The "Murder on the Orient Express" was also aluded. (basically from the same author's collection of masterpiece)

Now if anyone knows the tricks behind all these novels, then it was clear what EP5 was about.
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Old 2010-04-12, 00:51   Link #7951
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
If I was correct, this happened after Hideyoshi was killed (or not) scene. Not shown on the screen. The gap time period between what happened between 14:00 and the trial at 24:00.

No guarantee, sorry.
If you take a look at the episode 5 thread there's still a debate about how the 10th twilight could be 'poison' or 'gas.' People just don't want to believe it's an explosion despite all the evidence in EP4. Take the perspective of someone in that thread; with all the arguing back and forth you may be more adherent to the explosion theory but the hesitation is there. Of course we in this thread have the benefit of Erika's TIPS in EP6 to say it's an explosion. What kind of course, we don't know yet...

Also, I remember Renall and Jan Poo talking about how there was a lot of arguing about whether Kinzo was really alive or not before EP4 hit. Or about whether the gold was real or not.


One thing is clear to me is that if this keeps going we won't solve the game until the final EP spoon feeds us the answer.
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Old 2010-04-12, 01:11   Link #7952
Oliver
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Thinking about it yet more, I've thought of a slightly better scenario for Ep1 chained room.
  1. Eva and Hideyoshi normally occupy room #1. However, they have acquired the key to neighbouring room #2 and decided to move there instead, so that's where they are.
  2. Hideyoshi decides to take a shower. While sitting alone and waiting for him, one of the following happens to Eva: a) She gets the idea to turn on the TV and the lights in room #1. b) She needs something outside, like she wants to check if she can see something from the windows in the corridor or room #1, c) She decides to lay a trap for the murderer she is certain will come to room #1, relying on her martial arts expertise. Variants a and b involve her only leaving for a moment, while c involves a more extended time period.
  3. Since he's in the shower, Hideyoshi does not chain the door when Eva leaves. If he would, she wouldn't be able to get back in if he's still in the shower, anyway. Eva does lock the door when she goes out but that's it.
  4. Entering room #1, Eva is accosted by the murderer, who did one of the following: a) Was hiding there waiting for her, which he was able to do because he has a master key, b) Entered using a master key and was surprised by Eva but managed to shoot her dead anyway as she expected a different weapon, c) Entered right after her, noticing her in the corridor, since she didn't lock the door after entering because she didn't plan to stick around for long.
  5. The murderer shoots Eva dead, which Hideyoshi does not hear because of the almost soundproof shower door he's behind and two layers of closed doors -- later on, Kanon doesn't hear the shower until he opens it. As a side note, most of the blood of the headshot remains in room #1, instead of splattered all across room #2 like it would normally be.
  6. Finding keys to rooms #1 and #2 on Eva's body, the murderer guesses where Hideyoshi must be, enters room #2, and kills him in the shower. Since the chain wasn't on, a key is sufficient to do it. Blood of the headshot is washed away by the running water.
  7. Murderer moves Eva to room #2, drops her on the bead exit wound down, and stakes both victims.
  8. Murderer closes the door and proceeds with painting it up. He is almost done and is about to place the letter when he hears Kanon and Genji's footsteps.
  9. Murderer hides in room #1, locks and chains it, and if Eva didn't do it previously, arranges the lights and the TV.
  10. Kanon and Genji try the door and leave, promising to come back with the cutter in a few minutes.
  11. Murderer leaves the room, moves the letter to the door of room #2 and does one of the following: a) Hides in room #2 and chains it, b) employs unknown trick X to chain the door from outside and hides in room #1 or leaves.

Last edited by Oliver; 2010-04-12 at 01:14. Reason: minor tweak.
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Old 2010-04-12, 01:26   Link #7953
ijriims
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
[11]Murderer leaves the room, moves the letter to the door of room #2 and does one of the following: a) Hides in room #2 and chains it, b) employs unknown trick X to chain the door from outside and hides in room #1 or leaves.
If it was b), then it was incomplete.

If it was a), then the theory is redundant.

Too bad
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Old 2010-04-12, 01:38   Link #7954
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
If it was b), then it was incomplete.

If it was a), then the theory is redundant.

Too bad
Well, actually, I think the point of Oliver's theory was to give more time for the circle painter... As supposedly the few minutes for fetching the cutter was argued as not enough for a person to paint the circle normally.

Although, I can imagine someone having a huge stamp or a big cutout being able to do it rather quickly...
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Old 2010-04-12, 01:46   Link #7955
Oliver
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Well, actually, I think the point of Oliver's theory was to give more time for the circle painter... As supposedly the few minutes for fetching the cutter was argued as not enough for a person to paint the circle normally.
That was why I thought it was needed initially, but I'm also thinking that this spatial dissociation may allow for something else that I do not see yet.
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Old 2010-04-12, 01:57   Link #7956
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Oh yah, about probabilities. There's one more person who escapes the first twilight, or any twilight for that matter with astronomical probability. Either he's extremely lucky (like Kinzo was supposedly) or someone was purposely keeping him alive. Of course we already know this, but let's take a look at the math:

probability Battler is not chosen in one game
= 7 / 18

probability Battler is not chosen in 5 games (if the choosing is random)
= (7 / 18) ^ 5
= 0.89%

probability any one person is not chosen in 5 games
= (7 / 18) ^ 4
= 2.287%

That's why it seems to me that EP6 is a clear break in EP1-5's pattern. Someone else must have taken over at least in the first twilight that had no connection with wanting Battler 'alive'. So I assume it's Battler himself who allowed himself to be 'dead.'


By the way, looking at the probabilities like this, doesn't it seem like someone is purposely constructing the murders so that Battler resembles Kinzo? Battler's survival if the 'roulette wheel' is truly random (as the characters have tried to pretend) would appear to be a miracle indeed.

Maybe that's the motive for the murders. In that case, who would agree to that plan? The servants? Kinzo? George and Shannon?


EDIT: By the way.. I wrongly assumed there was 11 victims. Duhhhh... there are 13 victims in EP1-4 and 7 victims in EP5. So the probability is even lower than above.

Last edited by Kylon99; 2010-04-26 at 23:27.
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Old 2010-04-12, 02:10   Link #7957
Renall
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They definitely would, if Eva and Hideyoshi spent the previous night in their usual room. The killer could know the room changed, for example, if it were originally his or hers own room, and Eva and Hideyoshi were found there unexpectedly.
I believe they returned to the guesthouse the previous night, so they actually didn't use this room before. Even if they did, I'm going to be dubious on the killer being that perceptive. Of course, he/she could have made a snap decision, either by walking in on them or by spying on them leaving the main group.
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Mind you, that raises the question of why Kanon and Kumasawa, when visiting the storehouse to get the cutter, do not notice that body or bodies that should be there are missing, but they suspiciously do not mention bodies in this scene at all, nor react to their presence in any kind of expected fashion -- like maybe, flinching, turning away and getting back to the task at hand.

But from a narrative point of view, that would be a really sneaky way to misdirect us too, wouldn't it? You read through this scene, fast, excited - the murderer is trapped! Time is of the essence! How will he get away?
Well, absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. The fact they don't mention the bodies doesn't mean the bodies aren't there. However, if one or more people were faking, they would have to make all bodies vanish or their absence would be immediately noticed by Kanon and Kumasawa... assuming one of them is innocent (one can be aware of it already, but both of them can't be).
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So the killer, to misdirect them about the room, only has to turn off the lights and TV, leave the room they were in, unlock the painted room and push the door to stretch the chain. It is now the only room in the corridor with light pouring out of it, not just the one with a conspicuous white envelope next to it.
I'll buy that this is fair, but he/she still has the problem of locking the door chain from outside, or escaping the room, or hiding in it undiscovered. All of these were problems before your theory was addressed; your theory mostly just allows the painting to be "done" in a matter of a few minutes without Genji and Kanon both lying (which seems unlikely).
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Not necessarily. We keep forgetting that these people are relatives and employers/employees who had numerous opportunities to study each other's character and formulate expectation theories about the most expected behaviours in a tense situation. This, incidentally, is what a chain-locked room creates -- it appears to the visitors that the murderer has to still be inside the locked room.
I'm always going to be the stick in the mud about this, but please. I've known friends and family for decades and while it might be possible for us to predict certain limited things about each other (such as which room we're likely to hang out in, or likely to sleep in), I don't think there's any chance of this in the extant case of the ep1 Second Twilight.

Just ask yourself how many things can go wrong. What if nobody bothers to go looking for Eva and Hideyoshi, figuring they're tired and may have already gone to bed? What if someone decides to knock off for a nap before the person "intended" to find the room? What if the wrong servant is sent? What if Natsuhi gets really worried and the entire parlor group moves en masse to the hallway? There's no way to be certain of people's behavior patterns after six people are apparently ritualistically murdered that morning. Once murders start, predicting behavior becomes incredibly implausible. How people react in mundane situations is completely different from the way they might react in a panic situation. The killer has to account for the possibility that people will react anywhere from cowering in fear to running off in a panic to calmly and angrily acquiring weapons and bunkering down. Whoever the killers are in Umineko, they clearly understand the necessity of forcing people to break up and off, especially by sowing suspicion within the survivors. So we have to assume they do have plans to force people to behave predictably. In this case you've provided, the killer can't do that, unless someone else is helping them by ensuring any innocent persons do not accidentally stumble on the trick too soon.
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Old 2010-04-12, 02:11   Link #7958
ijriims
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Well, actually, I think the point of Oliver's theory was to give more time for the circle painter... As supposedly the few minutes for fetching the cutter was argued as not enough for a person to paint the circle normally.

Although, I can imagine someone having a huge stamp or a big cutout being able to do it rather quickly...
I would suggest a simple tape having the same colour as the door and covering the painted magic circle
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Old 2010-04-12, 02:24   Link #7959
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The fake death was hinted very strongly in EP5, especially from the sentence of Bern "アクロイドが誰もいなくなったと思ったら。……これはいつの間にか。とんだ傑作選ね"

Referring to "the Murder of Roger Ackroyd"(in Japanese アクロイド殺し), "And then there were none" (in Japanese そして誰もいなくなった).

The "Murder on the Orient Express" was also aluded. (basically from the same author's collection of masterpiece)

Now if anyone knows the tricks behind all these novels, then it was clear what EP5 was about.
Spoiler for So...:
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Old 2010-04-12, 02:42   Link #7960
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I believe they returned to the guesthouse the previous night, so they actually didn't use this room before.
My bad, yes, Eva does say that, so it makes it a bit less elegant. Though, Genji and/or Kanon clearly knew which room to go to with the intent to fetch them in the first place from somewhere, and they probably didn't follow them because Eva would be watching, so space for this trick still remains.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I'll buy that this is fair, but he/she still has the problem of locking the door chain from outside, or escaping the room, or hiding in it undiscovered. All of these were problems before your theory was addressed; your theory mostly just allows the painting to be "done" in a matter of a few minutes without Genji and Kanon both lying (which seems unlikely).
Yes, it is the real big problem, and what I noticed only allows to explain all the other minor details but not the real stumbling point. Let's try to summarise all the possibilities?
  • Someone is hiding inside. I guess we can discount that one after Ep5, because it still happened when the someone hiding was a witness.
  • Someone latched it from the inside and died subsequently. Ruled out in the case of Ep1 because of the nature of the wounds.
  • Someone thought to be dead inside is actually alive. Same.
  • Chain was cut and then reconnected from outside. (Actually, can be done in many cases depending on the shape of the chain if it becomes one link shorter...)
  • Chain is somehow not actually latched when it is being cut, but becomes latched afterwards.
  • Someone only pretends to cut the chain and then takes a moment to put the cut end into the latch.
  • Someone tied or hooked a piece of wire to the end of the chain and put it through the latch hole. By pulling on the wire from outside, they can get the chain closed, pulling stronger untangles the wire. Since the room only becomes closed afterwards, that does not break the red definition.

Anything to add?

I believe that in one interview Ryukshi states that the chain cannot be opened from outside but conspicuously doesn't mention that it can't be closed, but I'm not sure...

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
In this case you've provided, the killer can't do that, unless someone else is helping them by ensuring any innocent persons do not accidentally stumble on the trick too soon.
Well, I'll concede that, for this particular matter it's not very relevant anyway.
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