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Old 2010-04-14, 00:52   Link #8021
Kylon99
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
And don’t give me that bull about it being close to the end of Umineko. Ryu07 said Umineko might have to go up to 11eps before people understand the way things are going.
I believe that Ryukishi wants us to think past Shkannon to arrive at the real solution which the clues provided so far could be... but you're right. At the rate we're going (not just on this board I mean, but even say 2ch, etc), who knows how many episodes it will take.

My fear though is that EP7 and EP8 will be the end simply because he'll just give us the answers. And we wont' really have that much solved. ;__;
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:07   Link #8022
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Well, for EP1, you have to explain how Jessica placed the letter inside Kinzo's study when she went to read the epitaph and after that Natsuhi said that at that time there was no letter on the table.
Ok, looking at it again. There is no way Jessica, George, Battler, or Natsuhi could have placed the letter. (If we take were they are shown in the manga into account) So I will revise my theory. (But I still think Jessica is part of it, whether she knows or not.) Genji placed the letter.

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Then you have to provide reason why Jessica wanted to kill Kanon. And for what reason Gohda would help her in EP2 but not in other EP.
Ok, I can't really give a reaon as to why she would kill him, but the way things are worded it sounds like she isn't dead... yet Kanon died in that room. It is fishy. Genji and Shannon killed Kanon and Jessica. Shannon and Genji told the others about their plan. Nanjo and Kumasawa rufused so the three of them (adding Gohda) killed them. In the other eps Shannon kills him before telling him.

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In EP3, it was really hard for George to kill Nanjo as his eyes were open when he was dead and Battler saw it.
I never said George killed Nanjo. George and Nanjo's death mess me up, for almost every suspect should be dead or in another spot...

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You did not tell us what killed Battler in the end of EP4.
A bomb kills all that go missing on the 10th twilight in all games. There are quite a few hints about it.

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For EP5, well the bodies were not moved after death, so how did Nanjo kill them all? And why did he have to kill the family at all?
Oh yeah. I forgot about that Nanjo was with them since Battler screamed. That makes things very hard since everyone but Natsuhi we know where they are. The only real possiblity might that the people who went out in the rain to get the ladder and stuff did it. Since everyone else was standing outside of Kinzo's study, or with Erika constenstly expect Natsuhi. The 'Saving from hell' theory could apply to Nanjo.

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In EP6, who was Erika then?
So nothing happened at all until the bomb went off? What a boring game, good job GM Battler.

I'm going to propose something else. The 7th game, will be called. "Nightmare of the Golden Witch" It would fit Bern perfectly.
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:11   Link #8023
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
See, it still fits that way. It was the sin that created her resentment and anger, which is what creates "Beatrice." Her resentment is amplified further by mistreatment from her masters, her being bullied into faking Kinzo's death, etc. She's had plenty of time, and she's got Genji to help out for most of the Twilights. And if she had already been planning on committing murder, of course she wouldn't have batted an eye at anything Battler said.
Beatrice's goal is not to get revenge on someone, or to cause Battler to feel fear.

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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy
I guess we could rule out Battler anyway considering he's the detective.
Battler should have been watching Jessica the whole time, too.
Eva was set up as the culprit in EP3, like a red herring, so I doubt she did it.
Then there's Nanjo. Theoretically, he could open the window, climb out with George, run all the way to the mansion, kill him, write the numbers, run all the way back, climb into the window, and go inside his room. But it would be difficult for him considering his age. He even says it himself when Battler suspects him.
Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?

If you assume both that Eva is innocent and that Nanjo can't climb out the second floor window, you get to a fairly weird place, theory-wise. It would mean that he could only escape the guesthouse through a first floor window. Note that since it is impossible to ascend to the second floor from the inside without passing through the lounge, no path exists between this window and the second floor that can be safely used when people are in the lounge.

I'll make a couple more initial assumptions:
  • There are no "trick" stakes. A trick stake would make faking deaths by leaving a stake next to the body unnecessary. Therefore, anyone found with a stake in them is at the very least horribly wounded. Which means...
  • Natsuhi and Krauss really were dead when they were discovered. This is confirmed by their lack of reaction when the stakes were pulled out of them.
  • George was also dead when he was discovered. This is confirmed by Battler's observation of the "lack of life" in his eyes, which were open and unblinking the whole time.
  • Both Natsuhi and Krauss were strangled despite Krauss having a gun, so it's likely that they got separated before they were killed. This means the killer dragged them into the arbor afterward.
If Eva's telling the truth, she only left Natsuhi and Krauss alone for a couple minutes to wash her face. We know that George went out a second floor window, and since the door was barricaded, we also know Natsuhi and Krauss went out a window, probably on the first floor. Both of these windows were locked from the inside when Battler checked, meaning that Nanjo must have locked them after everyone else left. He is the only person who could have done so, since Eva remained in the lobby except for the brief period when she was in the bathroom.

Nanjo could have snuck out a first floor window while Eva was out, but she was only gone for a few minutes at most. That isn't enough time for Nanjo to follow Krauss and Natsuhi to the arbor, strangle them, and return to the guesthouse before Eva returned to the lounge. After that point, she remained in the lounge until Jessica and Battler came looking for George, at which point Nanjo evidently came downstairs. Even though he could have snuck out, there would be no way for him to get back inside and up to his room without alerting Eva. Since he couldn't have committed any crimes, there's no reason for him to lock the windows and lie about it unless he was conspiring with Natsuhi, Krauss, or George.

With Nanjo eliminated, the only people who could have killed Natsuhi and Krauss are George, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie. Hideyoshi and Kyrie were both staked in lethal locations and there are no trick stakes, so they can't be faking and must have mortal wounds at the very least. It's highly unlikely that they'd be able to go out in the storm, overpower two people by strangling, and drag them to the arbor in that condition, so we can probably eliminate them as suspects.

That leaves only George as a potential murderer. According to Battler, he left the cousins' room to make coffee sometime between 4:00 and 5:00, but the magic scenes claimed that George flew out the window around 5:45. This is roughly the same time that Krauss and Natsuhi disappeared, so it's possible that they saw George leaving and followed him or vice versa. It is odd that they would leave without informing Eva, but we could speculate about various motives, so the possibility can't be ruled out.

So according to this logic, George murdered Natsuhi and Krauss, then went to the mansion and was murdered by Kyrie or Hideyoshi. It all happened in the space of about 15-25 minutes, which is how long it took Battler's group to arrive at the mansion. Also, only George could have staked Natsuhi and Krauss, but he has an ironclad alibi (Battler) for the earlier stakings, so there must still be another staker.
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:12   Link #8024
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Laserworm View Post
And don’t give me that bull about it being close to the end of Umineko. Ryu07 said Umineko might have to go up to 11eps before people understand the way things are going.
Just fyi, Ryuukishi has mentioned that he plans to bring Umineko to a close this year, so I'm guessing 8 Episodes is almost set in stone. Then again, this is Ryuukishi we're talking about
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:13   Link #8025
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I believe that Ryukishi wants us to think past Shkannon to arrive at the real solution which the clues provided so far could be... but you're right. At the rate we're going (not just on this board I mean, but even say 2ch, etc), who knows how many episodes it will take.

My fear though is that EP7 and EP8 will be the end simply because he'll just give us the answers. And we wont' really have that much solved. ;__;
I also think this. Ep5 showed us that Shkannon is impossible. So he is using all the things pointing towards it in Ep6 to test the readers. To see if we learned our lession or if he needs to point out again that it is wrong.

I don't think Ep7 will give us an answer. I think it will gives us more clues. I'm pretty sure Bern is just going to show us the horrible side of everyone or at least people who we haven't seen that side yet. Unless he has changed what he wants to do with Umineko I don't think that will happen. He wants the reader themself to figure it out. We he feels a good amount of people have finally got it, he will not make any more eps.

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Just fyi, Ryuukishi has mentioned that he plans to bring Umineko to a close this year, so I'm guessing 8 Episodes is almost set in stone. Then again, this is Ryuukishi we're talking about
Really? That is sad.. I want to figure it out. For that was a cool idea and made people actually think about it. But then again maybe it just means that people are getting closer he feels. Or maybe he will feels that by then he will have given us enough clues. Or maybe he just plans on putting more clues in those eps that he first thought
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:16   Link #8026
Shiro Kaisen
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Beatrice's goal is not to get revenge on someone, or to cause Battler to feel fear.

Revised, see my above blue. "Beatrice" simply wants Battler to remember his promise. I totally forgot this red text.
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:26   Link #8027
chronotrig
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I also think this. Ep5 showed us that Shkannon is impossible. So he is using all the things pointing towards it in Ep6 to test the readers. To see if we learned our lession or if he needs to point out again that it is wrong.
Whether you agree with Shkanon or not, it is at least possible at the current time. It's probably a good idea to at least consider all of the major theories out there, whether you like them or not. I actually think EP5 gives some of the greatest support for the Shannontrice part of Shkanontrice among all Episodes except 6. Also, why would Ryuukishi spend a whole episode on a fake if we're all so far from the truth still?

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Really? That is sad.. I want to figure it out. For that was a cool idea and made people actually think about it. But then again maybe it just means that people are getting closer he feels. Or maybe he will feels that by then he will have given us enough clues. Or maybe he just plans on putting more clues in those eps that he first thought
I can't read Ryuukishi's mind, but I'm fairly certain that he's intended to make 8 games since the beginning. The reason he keeps that number flexible is so that we players are always on edge, wondering if the real end is going to come at every moment. However, if you look at the code in the script file, it's had room for EP5-8 ever since the EP5 release. And since he's talked about moving material from EP6 to the question arcs, he's probably had everything planned out at least on an Episode by Episode basis for a long time.
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:31   Link #8028
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8 episodes seems probable. It would be a bit odd to have 4 arcs in 3 and more in 4. It's not that it's impossible or new for him or anything, but it seems to fit thematically. Also, the pacing of things do seem to be forcing things to a climax in 7 and then probably to some sort of resolution in 8.

Also, to clarify what chrontrig said: If you look in the ep5/6 extracted images, he's renamed everything that was 1-4 to 5-8. The amusing thing is that anything labeled 7-8 in ep6 is just leftover ep3-4 stuff not yet overwritten, so you have the summary for Alliance labeled "ep8." That certainly seems like a hint to me!

Unless there'll be a When They Cry 5...

EDIT: Oh, and in a somewhat funny display of general laziness, if you look at the Character TIPS in ep5, anyone who doesn't die in ep5 still has the "death portraits" from ep4, even though you can't actually see them.
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:36   Link #8029
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Whether you agree with Shkanon or not, it is at least possible at the current time. It's probably a good idea to at least consider all of the major theories out there, whether you like them or not. I actually think EP5 gives some of the greatest support for the Shannontrice part of Shkanontrice among all Episodes except 6. Also, why would Ryuukishi spend a whole episode on a fake if we're all so far from the truth still?
I consider it. But I hate it, it makes KanonxJessica a lie, about Shannon the Bi girl. I've thought greatly about it, and I can certainly see it as a possible answer, but it just feels a little cheap. A mystery author is supposed to give the reader a fair chance, showing all those scenes involing KxJ then would mean, we probably know nothing real about Jessica's character. (She could be a lesibi even) Ep6 was supposed to show how many got the truth or not. Ryu07 said that if you knew the truth ep6's traps wouldn't touch you, and you would understand everything now. It would split people in two groups "those who know the answer", and "those who don't"

Quote:
I can't read Ryuukishi's mind, but I'm fairly certain that he's intended to make 8 games since the beginning. The reason he keeps that number flexible is so that we players are always on edge, wondering if the real end is going to come at every moment. However, if you look at the code in the script file, it's had room for EP5-8 ever since the EP5 release. And since he's talked about moving material from EP6 to the question arcs, he's probably had everything planned out at least on an Episode by Episode basis for a long time.
Yeah I think he has a planned on how many he wants for a long time. But I think that number is a flexible if he wants to stick to what he says. That the game might not be solvabe for all people, and there is no garnteed answer. But so far the only thing I've seen that was added to the question arcs was the mention of a bran tube thing, and that was because everyone got so lost because of the magic and couldn't think of any way to deny it.

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Unless there'll be a When They Cry 5...
There will probably be a WTC5, but it won't be about Umineko, it will be something else.
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:44   Link #8030
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I consider it. But I hate it, it makes KanonxJessica a lie, about Shannon the Bi girl. I've thought greatly about it, and I can certainly see it as a possible answer, but it just feels a little cheap. A mystery author is supposed to give the reader a fair chance, showing all those scenes involing KxJ then would mean, we probably know nothing real about Jessica's character. (She could be a lesibi even) Ep6 was supposed to show how many got the truth or not. Ryu07 said that if you knew the truth ep6's traps wouldn't touch you, and you would understand everything now. It would split people in two groups "those who know the answer", and "those who don't"
It is at least possible that Jessica doesn't know. And remember how much Kanon resisted the idea and pushed her away even though that really hurt her. The only times he really relents are in EP6 and just before one or the other of them dies, and the accuracy of those scenes is dubious. I think "Kanon" wanted Jessica to be happy, but that doesn't mean he was romantically in love with her. We know that Shannon did love Jessica, but as a friend (and possibly her only friend in the world).
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Old 2010-04-14, 01:48   Link #8031
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It is at least possible that Jessica doesn't know. And remember how much Kanon resisted the idea and pushed her away even though that really hurt her. The only times he really relents are in EP6 and just before one or the other of them dies, and the accuracy of those scenes is dubious. I think "Kanon" wanted Jessica to be happy, but that doesn't mean he was romantically in love with her. We know that Shannon did love Jessica, but as a friend (and possibly her only friend in the world).
Huh.. I never actually thought about it like that. But it does make sense.. (shoot... I don't want it to be true...) I just wonder how it survives the mention Kanon was the first to die in Kyrie's group of 5 people. In other words he was the 9th victim.
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Old 2010-04-14, 02:15   Link #8032
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Huh.. I never actually thought about it like that. But it does make sense.. (shoot... I don't want it to be true...) I just wonder how it survives the mention Kanon was the first to die in Kyrie's group of 5 people. In other words he was the 9th victim.
According to the Shkanontrice theory, personalities count as people. In other words, Kanon can be "killed" even if Shannon is still alive. If the Kanon personality dies, it counts as a human death.

Of course...doesn't this mean that Beatrice, the third personality, counts as a human as well, and there's now too many on the island?
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Old 2010-04-14, 02:21   Link #8033
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Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen View Post
According to the Shkanontrice theory, personalities count as people. In other words, Kanon can be "killed" even if Shannon is still alive. If the Kanon personality dies, it counts as a human death.

Of course...doesn't this mean that Beatrice, the third personality, counts as a human as well, and there's now too many on the island?
Well, the personalities count towards the number of humans (人間) but not to the number of.. people. (人)

The English translation is not set in stone that 人間 == humans and 人 == people, but I think you catch the drift.

So it was stated that 'even if you welcome (include) Erika, there are 17人'

Two lines from EP6:

- そなたを迎えても、
- 17人だ。


So the Shkannon theory gets around this by saying that Sh+Kan+Anyone else still == 1 person.
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Old 2010-04-14, 02:55   Link #8034
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According to the Shkanontrice theory, personalities count as people. In other words, Kanon can be "killed" even if Shannon is still alive. If the Kanon personality dies, it counts as a human death.

Of course...doesn't this mean that Beatrice, the third personality, counts as a human as well, and there's now too many on the island?
If personalities count as people. Does this mean that when Jessica is in a group, she could be counted as "2 people". After all she is 'Jessica' and 'Jessi' XD

How do you kill a personality, it never existed in the first place, it was all in your head... So technically it could also return whenever Shanon wants it to. The Kanon persona could come back after when they are in the servants room in ep 2 after it has been said. Kanon is dead. So does that mean that is what 'demon Kanon' was, just Shannon going mental in front of them calling herself Kanon for a short while. XD

Edit my new theory for ep2. During the servant room scene. Shannon went mental and killed Nanjo and Kumasawa while claiming to be Kanon. Gohda and Genji made up this story about a 'demon Kanon' because they don't want anyone to think Shannon did it on purpose.
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Old 2010-04-14, 03:07   Link #8035
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From LyricalAura's analysis on the death of Krauss and Natsuhi in Ep3:

....
If Eva's telling the truth, she only left Natsuhi and Krauss alone for a couple minutes to wash her face
...

You had this additional assumption as well.
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Old 2010-04-14, 03:11   Link #8036
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If Eva's telling the truth, she only left Natsuhi and Krauss alone for a couple minutes to wash her face
Yeah it is very possible that she is lying, or she might have not realized that she left them alone for a long time too.
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Old 2010-04-14, 03:26   Link #8037
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How do you kill a personality, it never existed in the first place, it was all in your head... So technically it could also return whenever Shanon wants it to.
It's not actually personalities that are being counted, it's pieces on the game board. Pieces must follow certain rules, depending on the belief system of the person who owns the game board, which is why the red text can be used about them. If you say "Kanon is dead" with the red text, and you know that 'Kanon' is a fictional piece on Sayo's game board, then you know that Sayo has, for some reason, decided that Kanon is dead, and will not allow him to be seen alive by anyone unless certain conditions are met. We see what those conditions are in EP3 when "Beatrice revives Kanon with magic".
At least, this is how the theory goes.

There's a section from EP6 about pieces, translated here.
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Old 2010-04-14, 05:18   Link #8038
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
It's not actually personalities that are being counted, it's pieces on the game board. Pieces must follow certain rules, depending on the belief system of the person who owns the game board, which is why the red text can be used about them. If you say "Kanon is dead" with the red text, and you know that 'Kanon' is a fictional piece on Sayo's game board, then you know that Sayo has, for some reason, decided that Kanon is dead, and will not allow him to be seen alive by anyone unless certain conditions are met. We see what those conditions are in EP3 when "Beatrice revives Kanon with magic".
At least, this is how the theory goes.
The translation said that you can resurrect a piece when you start a new game or infinitely in the meta world (from what we read of Battler kept reduced to meat and then resurrected, those strictly speaking the meta-Battler was not a piece but a player)

And once the vessal is destoryed, it cannot be resurrected.

What was Kanon's vessal? We knew that Sakutarou existed as a real stuffed animal. But Kanon in your theory was an "imagination" or intangible "identity"?

The analogy does not carry well.
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Old 2010-04-14, 11:17   Link #8039
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And once the vessal is destoryed, it cannot be resurrected.

What was Kanon's vessal? We knew that Sakutarou existed as a real stuffed animal. But Kanon in your theory was an "imagination" or intangible "identity"?

The analogy does not carry well.
Yeah it does, but you have to think it through first. Sakutaro was an imaginary character too, wasn't he? He isn't actually a stuffed animal that someone managed to bring to life. So, why does the physical stuffed animal actually matter in any way? It's because Maria's "conditions for him being alive" were violated when the stuffed animal was destroyed. That fact is the only thing that makes a vessel significant. After all, Ange was able to revive all of the seven sisters with just a single stake, and she didn't need a stuffed animal to summon Sakutaro.

Also, Kanon exists as more than just an idea in Sayo's head. It's also a personality that many people know and consider to be a separate person. So, what are the most obvious conditions for the character "Kanon's" death? When the people who think he exists believe he is dead. In other words, when Sayo stages his death and decides to 'remove him from the game board'.
That's what it means for Kanon's vessel to be destroyed. And, as Ange said, a piece can be revived even after its vessel is destroyed as long as the conditions for that piece's existence are satisfied again. However, that doesn't mean it's easy for Sayo to satisfy those conditions.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-04-14 at 11:32.
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Old 2010-04-14, 16:00   Link #8040
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
So according to this logic, George murdered Natsuhi and Krauss, then went to the mansion and was murdered by Kyrie or Hideyoshi. It all happened in the space of about 15-25 minutes, which is how long it took Battler's group to arrive at the mansion. Also, only George could have staked Natsuhi and Krauss, but he has an ironclad alibi (Battler) for the earlier stakings, so there must still be another staker.
I doubt Hideyoshi would murder his own son, so Kyrie is probably the one to kill George.

So let's bring this back to 07151129. George is the recipient of the message. George was also killed by Kyrie. So we could say that Kyrie wrote the message to lure George into the parlor and get killed.

"If you say it, a small Golden Land will be opened"

What is a Golden Land? If it's like the epitaph says, where the souls of all the dead and even the lost love are resurrected, then maybe that would make George think Shannon would come back to life.

So how did George know the message means "Golden Land"?
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