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Old 2010-04-14, 16:15   Link #8041
Renall
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I don't think it makes much sense as a message unless it's between two people who already know what it means. If the goal is to lure somebody somewhere, just about any unusual thing would work; someone specifically chose those particular numbers.

The exception would be if someone found out the numbers somehow (coercion, torture, a confession) and put them on the door to lure someone's co-conspirators there.

But if you're going to say Kyrie put the numbers there for George to see, why did she know them? Why did she think he'd care about them? Why put those in particular?

I bring this up because while I don't see Kyrie-George as a likely conspiracy pairing, I could see George-Nanjo (if George is in on whatever faction Shannon is in, and why not?); however, I could see Kyrie knowing the numbers, just not Kyrie knowing the numbers and an unrelated George or Nanjo also knowing the numbers.

EDIT: Creepy Author Theory musing: No one put the numbers there. The author decided to have them placed there as a cryptic reference to an unexplained mystery he/she researched while writing. It was intentionally left ambiguous who wrote them, because the author didn't know.

Man, this theory lets you get away with anything. Or maybe I just was thinking about The Big Sleep.
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Old 2010-04-14, 16:30   Link #8042
SeagullCrazy
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That gives me another idea.

George and Nanjo are conspiring together.
Kyrie and Nanjo are conspiring together.
George and Kyrie are not conspiring together.


What if Nanjo was the first one to know what the numbers meant? And he told George and Kyrie separately about it. So Kyrie wrote the numbers as a message for Nanjo, but George thought Nanjo wrote a message for him.
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Old 2010-04-14, 16:31   Link #8043
Judoh
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Well from episode 4 I deduced the account was made with yakuza money because the money was thought to be illegally obtained and anyone in the business world could've made an account like that so I thought Okonogi made it for George or Hideyoshi. Then illegal money was put inside.

Spoiler for episode 6:


My personal preference is that George is the painter, but I don't really I beleive in a hidden message in the numbers. Even though it seems Eva might have had her own interpretation of a message when she shot Battler.
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Old 2010-04-14, 16:41   Link #8044
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
That gives me another idea.

George and Nanjo are conspiring together.
Kyrie and Nanjo are conspiring together.
George and Kyrie are not conspiring together.


What if Nanjo was the first one to know what the numbers meant? And he told George and Kyrie separately about it. So Kyrie wrote the numbers as a message for Nanjo, but George thought Nanjo wrote a message for him.
Alternately, George and Kyrie were both on Team Beatrice, but they didn't know that each other were on the team. Kyrie suspected that someone on Team Beatrice that she didn't know about committed the murders, so she painted a number that only a Team Beatrice member would know the meaning of in order to provoke a reaction that would expose them.

...I'd hoped this line of reasoning would eventually lead to a contradiction, but it doesn't seem to be happening.
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Old 2010-04-14, 16:54   Link #8045
Renall
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I think Nanjo is more likely as the cog around which multiple conspiracies turn, so Seagull's scenario is more probable. We know for a fact he's involved in at least two (the Kinzo death coverup, and then his obvious lying in other episodes means he's covering for someone else for some reason). Why not several at once, all of which may or may not know of his involvement in others? I bet Natsuhi doesn't think Nanjo's in any other such groups, and I doubt she's in any others herself. Seems plausible and text-supported.

Nanjo is a desirable conspirator for various reasons. He's a doctor, he's "independent" as far as people seem to think (not family, not a servant), he seems nonthreatening, he's good at misdirecting his lying so it appears he's lying about something completely different. If anyone is in multiple groups without the groups necessarily knowing it, it would be him.

This might also explain his constant survival status; even if every First Twilight were done by a different group, if Nanjo is an important member of all of them, no group will want to kill him too soon. Sort of like the anti-Battler; where Battler is apparently a member of none, Nanjo would be a member of all (or many).
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Old 2010-04-14, 17:06   Link #8046
Judoh
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I really would like to write a game centered around Nanjo. Just because you can do so many things with his character since you know so little about him. He's a blank slate so you can build a whole bunch of different character traits around him based on the other people. I watch House so I like Doctor = Detective stories.
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Old 2010-04-14, 17:09   Link #8047
Renall
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Detective Nanjo unravels the mystery of the Gohda Accident Theory might make a pretty good short story.

Battler would be in utter disbelief.

EDIT: Agh now I'm imagining every line of Nanjo's in Dr. Zoidberg's voice.

"I have mail-order degrees in Murderology AND Murderonomy!"
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Old 2010-04-14, 17:14   Link #8048
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
And someone had to fake their death to kill Nanjo.
Which is the most likely person to kill Nanjo: Kyrie or Hideyoshi?
It might have been Kyrie. Though, it maybe possible that she wasn't willingly faking her death. If she was, then it either went against her favor or Nanjo hadn't kept his end of the bargain.

This is just a guess, but in the event that Nanjo isn't an accomplice, he might be making a diagnosis for the sake of his personal safety, and then leaving a victim to die from his deliberate negligence. They can be saved, but he chooses not to because he either fears that they are the culprit, another accomplice or he'd be caught in the crossfire.

Before he died, he tells his attacker that he has a sick granddaughter and didn't want to die on the island. Nanjo probably thought that Kyrie would succumb to her injury and hadn't expected her to still be alive at that point in time.
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Old 2010-04-14, 17:34   Link #8049
SeagullCrazy
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It might have been Kyrie. Though, it maybe possible that she wasn't willingly faking her death. If she was, then it either went against her favor or Nanjo hadn't kept his end of the bargain.
It would be hard to explain the 4th, 5th, and 6th twilights if she didn't willingly fake her death. So what does everyone think about the 4th, 5th, and 6th twilights anyway? I think it can be explained by saying Kyrie wanted to frame Eva as the culprit. Hideyoshi found out, and killed Rudolf in self-defense. Then Kyrie killed Hideyoshi in self-defense. Realizing her mistake (Eva wouldn't kill her husband) she decided to fake her death.

Quote:
This is just a guess, but in the event that Nanjo isn't an accomplice, he might be making a diagnosis for the sake of his personal safety, and then leaving a victim to die from his deliberate negligence. They can be saved, but he chooses not to because he either fears that they are the culprit, another accomplice or he'd be caught in the crossfire.
That makes sense. Even if he was part of multiple conspiracies, does he have anything to gain by saving the killer's life? This would definitely make Kyrie want to get revenge, for betraying her.

Quote:
Before he died, he tells his attacker that he has a sick granddaughter and didn't want to die on the island. Nanjo probably thought that Kyrie would succumb to her injury and hadn't expected her to still be alive at that point in time.
That also makes sense. This is shaping up to be a pretty solid theory, I think.
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Old 2010-04-14, 17:47   Link #8050
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
It would be hard to explain the 4th, 5th, and 6th twilights if she didn't willingly fake her death. So what does everyone think about the 4th, 5th, and 6th twilights anyway? I think it can be explained by saying Kyrie wanted to frame Eva as the culprit. Hideyoshi found out, and killed Rudolf in self-defense. Then Kyrie killed Hideyoshi in self-defense. Realizing her mistake (Eva wouldn't kill her husband) she decided to fake her death.
That would make for an incredible coincidence. Everyone in that group was staked, and there was only one wound per body, corresponding to the 4th through 6th twilights. While you might be able to make some argument that Kyrie got her hands on the stakes, I doubt both Kyrie and Hideyoshi would both shoot someone in self defense and end up with the right wound locations. Also, why would Kyrie have taken Hideyoshi with her and Rudolf if they were trying to frame Eva? There's no way that Hideyoshi is going to go out of their line of sight in a situation like this, so it'd be impossible for her to do pretty much anything without him figuring it out.

Personally, I don't think a large number of accidental deaths can have anything to do with this story. Maybe a few form that pattern, but too much of it isn't what I'd call neat.
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Old 2010-04-14, 17:58   Link #8051
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
That would make for an incredible coincidence. Everyone in that group was staked, and there was only one wound per body, corresponding to the 4th through 6th twilights. While you might be able to make some argument that Kyrie got her hands on the stakes, I doubt both Kyrie and Hideyoshi would both shoot someone in self defense and end up with the right wound locations. Also, why would Kyrie have taken Hideyoshi with her and Rudolf if they were trying to frame Eva? There's no way that Hideyoshi is going to go out of their line of sight in a situation like this, so it'd be impossible for her to do pretty much anything without him figuring it out.
Well, that's why I asked for any other theories, but that's just what I've been thinking.
Who killed them? Wasn't everyone holed up in the guesthouse the entire time?
That makes me think Kyrie, the one who faked her death, killed them.
That leads to a contradiction: why would she kill Rudolf? Simple; it was Hideyoshi that killed him. Why would that happen? Because he found out Kyrie's plan.

There was one red text that almost everyone has forgotten about concerning this. Even Battler forgets about it when he fights Eva-Beatrice.

"The reason she changed her mind was not told to anyone, nor was it written down"

Battler's theory was that Kyrie told Rudolf about the cigarette, so his theory is automatically wrong. And it was Rudolf who suggested bringing Hideyoshi with, not Kyrie, so it wasn't originally part of her plan.
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Old 2010-04-14, 18:03   Link #8052
chronotrig
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Well, that's why I asked for any other theories, but that's just what I've been thinking.
Who killed them? Wasn't everyone holed up in the guesthouse the entire time?
Actually, the game makes a point of showing that there are two people who could have killed them. From the time that Kyrie's groups leaves until 30 minutes later, no one sees either Eva or Nanjo. Both of them had plenty of time to commit the murders, and both of them had access to Eva's gun (if Eva isn't the culprit and really does have a fever, Nanjo could probably just walk in and take it).
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Old 2010-04-14, 18:12   Link #8053
SeagullCrazy
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Actually, the game makes a point of showing that there are two people who could have killed them. From the time that Kyrie's groups leaves until 30 minutes later, no one sees either Eva or Nanjo. Both of them had plenty of time to commit the murders, and both of them had access to Eva's gun (if Eva isn't the culprit and really does have a fever, Nanjo could probably just walk in and take it).
There's one problem I have with saying "Nanjo did it". He's a fat old man, and maneuvering around in the shadows would be hard for him to pull off. He would have to climb out the window with the gun (and umbrella), run over to the mansion, kill 2 people and wound another, then run all the way back to the guesthouse, and using a ladder he got from the storehouse climb into the second floor window with the gun and umbrella, and silently put the gun back in Eva's room. And that's assuming no one locks the window while he's gone.

I'd rather say that small bombs are the culprit than accept Nanjo could move like a ninja.
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Old 2010-04-14, 18:31   Link #8054
chronotrig
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There's one problem I have with saying "Nanjo did it". He's a fat old man, and maneuvering around in the shadows would be hard for him to pull off. He would have to climb out the window with the gun (and umbrella), run over to the mansion, kill 2 people and wound another, then run all the way back to the guesthouse, and using a ladder he got from the storehouse climb into the second floor window with the gun and umbrella, and silently put the gun back in Eva's room. And that's assuming no one locks the window while he's gone.

I'd rather say that small bombs are the culprit than accept Nanjo could move like a ninja.
Well, he doesn't need to run. We don't see where he is at the time that Rudolf's group leaves. If he snuck out the window when he first heard them talking to Krauss, he could have made it to the mansion before them. It takes them at most 5 minutes to run to the mansion. So, even if it takes Nanjo a full 15 minutes to fire three shots, he still has ten minutes to walk back and stick the gun in Eva's room. If Eva is asleep, he doesn't need to be sneaky, just quiet.

Oh, and he'd be sneaking out of his own room, so no one would have seen or touched the window.
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Old 2010-04-14, 18:31   Link #8055
Kaisos Erranon
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Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
There's one problem I have with saying "Nanjo did it". He's a fat old man, and maneuvering around in the shadows would be hard for him to pull off. He would have to climb out the window with the gun (and umbrella), run over to the mansion, kill 2 people and wound another, then run all the way back to the guesthouse, and using a ladder he got from the storehouse climb into the second floor window with the gun and umbrella, and silently put the gun back in Eva's room. And that's assuming no one locks the window while he's gone.
The tunnels.

We can be almost certain that there's some kind of tunnel system on the island, specifically one leading from somewhere in the main mansion area to Kuwadorian. (This tunnel may also contain the 'gold room'.)

If this is true, why couldn't there be a tunnel leading from the guesthouse to the main house? One which only Nanjo and Kinzo (and probably Genji) were aware of?
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Old 2010-04-14, 19:06   Link #8056
LyricalAura
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Well, he doesn't need to run. We don't see where he is at the time that Rudolf's group leaves. If he snuck out the window when he first heard them talking to Krauss, he could have made it to the mansion before them. It takes them at most 5 minutes to run to the mansion. So, even if it takes Nanjo a full 15 minutes to fire three shots, he still has ten minutes to walk back and stick the gun in Eva's room. If Eva is asleep, he doesn't need to be sneaky, just quiet.

Oh, and he'd be sneaking out of his own room, so no one would have seen or touched the window.
Yeah, the timing issue isn't particularly difficult. The real problem is whether Nanjo is physically fit enough to climb down from a second story window and then get back up again afterwards. We've never really seen him doing anything strenuous, so it's hard to say. Certainly his own statements about it can't be trusted, though.

Assuming Nanjo did go out the window, that doesn't necessarily make him the culprit. He is a mystery aficianado -- even though it's only revealed outright in EP5, you can deduce it from some of his comments about locked room tricks -- so he might take some actions on his own that he thinks would be helpful. For instance, supposing the victims got in a gunfight with each other and Nanjo arrived on the scene afterward, he might have staked them to make sure none of them was faking it and hidden the guns so the supposed culprit wouldn't get them.

Of course, this would make him look like the culprit from the perspective of the person who survived the gunfight. That would give them a reason to pull the stake out of their own body and stab Nanjo with it later.
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Old 2010-04-14, 19:13   Link #8057
SeagullCrazy
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I still doubt Nanjo intentionally murdered them, though. You can't just solve the puzzles, the solutions have to be believable too. You could solve almost every murder in Umineko with "Nanjo did it", but that doesn't explain anything. It's like the Gohda accident theory, it's possible, but not believable at all. He has the motive to lie, but not the motive to kill. I'm more inclined to believe that Nanjo didn't want to be on the island at all, and was bribed using money. He's the most important piece on the board, so everyone wants him on it. But that doesn't mean the piece itself wants to be there. I think his goal is to simply do as he's told so that he won't get killed, which clearly explains how he reacts to Eva-Beatrice before he dies.
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Old 2010-04-14, 19:16   Link #8058
chronotrig
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I still doubt Nanjo intentionally murdered them, though. You can't just solve the puzzles, the solutions have to be believable too. You could solve almost every murder in Umineko with "Nanjo did it", but that doesn't explain anything. It's like the Gohda accident theory, it's possible, but not believable at all. He has the motive to lie, but not the motive to kill. I'm more inclined to believe that Nanjo didn't want to be on the island at all, and was bribed using money. He's the most important piece on the board, so everyone wants him on it. But that doesn't mean the piece itself wants to be there. I think his goal is to simply do as he's told so that he won't get killed, which clearly explains how he reacts to Eva-Beatrice before he dies.
Oh, I'm not saying that Nanjo killed everyone, or even that he was necessarily the killer in the second part of EP3. Just pointing out that it's possible.

And, it's almost certainly the truth or a trap. Actually, the 4-6 twilights are the tightest time for Nanjo in EP3. For every other murder, he has at least an hour where no one sees him in which he can commit the crimes. The same goes for Eva, of course, but she's a bit too obvious even for a trap.
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Old 2010-04-14, 19:23   Link #8059
LyricalAura
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Oh, I'm not saying that Nanjo killed everyone, or even that he was necessarily the killer in the second part of EP3. Just pointing out that it's possible.

And, it's almost certainly the truth or a trap. Actually, the 4-6 twilights are the tightest time for Nanjo in EP3. For every other murder, he has at least an hour where no one sees him in which he can commit the crimes. The same goes for Eva, of course, but she's a bit too obvious even for a trap.
Frankly, the fact that they were shoved in our faces as the only suspects makes me think that they're both traps. Wouldn't it be a nasty trick if, for instance, Rosa turned out to be the first twilight murderer, and every single death after that was purely the result of paranoia, accidents, and mistaken conclusions?
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Old 2010-04-14, 19:28   Link #8060
chronotrig
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Frankly, the fact that they were shoved in our faces as the only suspects makes me think that they're both traps.
Then again, it's also true that EP3 was supposedly made to be easier. I doubt it's as easy as "Nanjo killed everyone", but it should more simple than the other EPs in some way. Also, while Nanjo is shoved in our faces, it's done a bit too soon in the story. They actually comment on the fact that he's almost the only person who could have killed Rosa. Many readers will see that, think "oh, it can't be that easy", and discount Nanjo as a suspect prematurely.
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