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Old 2010-04-15, 05:16   Link #8141
rogerpepitone
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For anybody proposing that in E3 / T 456, Rudolf, Kyrie, and Hideyoshi killed each other, what happened to their guns?
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Old 2010-04-15, 06:57   Link #8142
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
There are lots of ways to accomplish it, just not with a 100-year-old gun model that also happens to have been modified in a way that makes it noisier and flashier. I'd be intensely skeptical of a silencer, suppressor, barrel extension, or low-velocity rounds existing for the Winchesters (they almost certainly don't even make those, let alone the killer having any access to them).
Not quite.

One can disassemble the rounds, and reduce the amount of gunpowder in them, which, if done properly, will result in fairly reliable results. The downside is that it requires rather specialised equipment for refilling rounds and replacing bullets.

Kinzo is very likely to have possessed that equipment as part of his gun hobby if he owned any less well-known antique firearms for which cartridges are no longer manufactured -- empty cartridges for those are refilled manually with newly cast bullets. Many people do this today in USA with Soviet 9mm PM rounds for Makarov/Stechkin and family, which otherwise can be hard to come by, and if it was boring to do it himself, Kinzo could always get Genji to do it.

But if the murderer is to do anything of the sort they need to have had the skill to work the press and quite some time to access it, it could not have been done during the conference itself.

I do wonder quite where was the gun collection kept, because if it's the study, there's lots of questions concerning the two extant keys.
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Old 2010-04-15, 07:43   Link #8143
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On the subject of poison, is it possible that six random people got food poisoning at dinner for the FTs? Maybe it just didn't paralyze them or anything until the middle of the night or something...
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Old 2010-04-15, 08:14   Link #8144
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Originally Posted by RockReborn View Post
On the subject of poison, is it possible that six random people got food poisoning at dinner for the FTs? Maybe it just didn't paralyze them or anything until the middle of the night or something...
Me, I'm leaning further and further towards blaming Rosa's tea as a major part of the plan at least in half of all cases. Maria's behaviour appears to be the hint there:

During the first day of Ep1, Maria behaves as if she has just had a moderate dose of a debilitating medication - she can barely string sentences together and cannot understand complex words and moderately complex concepts fly right past her.

Later in the episode it slowly wears off and she is eventually able to switch into Full Magic Mode, wherein she is, while keeping largely the same playful character, eloquent, educated, and capable of stringing together sentences that Jessica and even George need some thinking to parse. She's also full of pride of knowing the Secret Knowledge and pities everyone else that they don't. Even out of Full Magic Mode, she speaks very differently and uses longer and more complex sentences.

Both in Ep1 and Ep2, Rosa arrives late to the airport, but in Ep2, instead of drugging Maria silly, she buys Maria a bag of candy. As a result, Maria is capable of going Full Magic Mode immediately upon arrival to the rose garden and dumps a 20-30 minute long - and fairly obscure, I might add, certainly not school material - lecture on the history of Halloween onto anyone who will listen. I don't even think Eva meant what she said when she asked how old Maria was as a jab - it may have been an honest, if veiled, compliment.

It may be a translation artifact to a degree, but I somewhat doubt it, because in Ep3, Rosa explicitly mentions a bottle of 'child-use sedatives' she normally uses on Maria to control crying fits. So at least some drugging is very definitely going on here, and Rosa is likely connected.

There are quite a few ways for her to be connected though.
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Old 2010-04-15, 08:26   Link #8145
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Me, I'm leaning further and further towards blaming Rosa's tea as a major part of the plan at least in half of all cases. Maria's behaviour appears to be the hint there:

During the first day of Ep1, Maria behaves as if she has just had a moderate dose of a debilitating medication - she can barely string sentences together and cannot understand complex words and moderately complex concepts fly right past her.

Later in the episode it slowly wears off and she is eventually able to switch into Full Magic Mode, wherein she is, while keeping largely the same playful character, eloquent, educated, and capable of stringing together sentences that Jessica and even George need some thinking to parse. She's also full of pride of knowing the Secret Knowledge and pities everyone else that they don't. Even out of Full Magic Mode, she speaks very differently and uses longer and more complex sentences.

Both in Ep1 and Ep2, Rosa arrives late to the airport, but in Ep2, instead of drugging Maria silly, she buys Maria a bag of candy. As a result, Maria is capable of going Full Magic Mode immediately upon arrival to the rose garden and dumps a 20-30 minute long - and fairly obscure, I might add, certainly not school material - lecture on the history of Halloween onto anyone who will listen. I don't even think Eva meant what she said when she asked how old Maria was as a jab - it may have been an honest, if veiled, compliment.

It may be a translation artifact to a degree, but I somewhat doubt it, because in Ep3, Rosa explicitly mentions a bottle of 'child-use sedatives' she normally uses on Maria to control crying fits. So at least some drugging is very definitely going on here, and Rosa is likely connected.

There are quite a few ways for her to be connected though.
And she always brings an assortment of teas as gifts to the get-together, doesn't she? It shouldn't be too hard to slip some drugs into the tins, especially if she can easily get sedatives for Maria.
I came to the same conclusion, but also don't forget Natsuhi. If her medical condition is as bad as she says it is, then it's likely she might have drugs that could render people in the same state. And since her room is accessible by any of the servants, any of the, could've used the drugs to knock people out. So if the main culprit had some of the servants on their side, they could get them to gather the drugs. And since the servants delivered tea to the adults who were up late talking, it would be easy to knock them out.
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Old 2010-04-15, 11:37   Link #8146
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Here's the issue: Rosa and Natsuhi seem somewhat isolated in terms of likely participation in various groups. Yet they're the ones who are mentioned specifically as having access to drugs of various sorts. That isn't to say someone else couldn't, but I think it's easier to look at the things that have been given to us.

So if drugs are used in the murders, someone both knows that either of Rosa or Natsuhi has drugs, and has access to them to use them in the First Twilight. This very possibly is done without their knowledge.
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Old 2010-04-15, 13:39   Link #8147
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It stretches credibility. A lot. I think ep2, ep5, and ep6 are some kind of hint in this respect that perhaps the First Twilight is not a brilliantly-executed multiple murder as it appears, but a mass killing through some form of deception and willing participation (unknowingly, anyway). Killing the incapacitated seems like something that the game has been hinting at. I mean, look at Beatrice's very suspect definition of "instant" death.
Well, since those are the first twilights least likely to be caused by "Beatrice" herself, I don't know if they count as a counterexample. You say it stretches credibility, but all it takes is 4 well-placed shots at middle-aged rich people who are practically asleep on their feet. Add on the fact that the killer was someone they knew, possibly even Shannon, whom they'd never suspect even after the first shot was fired, and it's not a stretch at all. She could easily have gotten two or three shots off at close range before anyone even moved.

You can say "the game hints strongly at poisoning", but I've yet to see an argument for why that must be true other than "it's easier that way".

And don't forget what Gohda said about the first twilight in EP4:
"I, I've heard that the Master has a collection of working guns. ......That's right, a gun, that was a gun... If so, ......it's a horribly powerful gun...! W, we can't contend with that at all...!"

Of course, Gohda is far from reliable, but there has to be some reason for him to say this.
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Old 2010-04-15, 13:58   Link #8148
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If we believe the ep2 scene late at night, the adults were meeting with Beatrice in the chapel before their deaths, and the meeting seemed - if not cordial - then at least civil. If Beatrice had some intention to gun them all down, that's certainly an unusual way to go about it.

Killing people is hard. Killing a lot of people at once is really hard. Look at the ep4 First Twilight scene; several people resist. Now of course in the magic scene the killers have the advantage of magical methods, but if they don't, how do they ensure their success? Contrary to the whole "miracle" thing, I think the killer - or at least one group of the killers - is not taking any chances.

The best, and perhaps only "safe" way to murder a half-dozen people in the span of a couple hours is to incapacitate as many of them as possible in as little time as possible. One reason people suggest poison and drugs is because it's very easy to do; the unsuspecting family members all eat the same food and drink the same drinks. If a killer wanted to poison everyone to death, he or she could have done it at dinner with ease (which raises the question as to why they did not, but there could be many reasons why not).

There are other ways you could make sure people wouldn't fight back, but most of them require much less plausible methods (carbon monoxide or something).
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Old 2010-04-15, 14:26   Link #8149
chronotrig
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If we believe the ep2 scene late at night, the adults were meeting with Beatrice in the chapel before their deaths, and the meeting seemed - if not cordial - then at least civil. If Beatrice had some intention to gun them all down, that's certainly an unusual way to go about it.

Killing people is hard. Killing a lot of people at once is really hard. Look at the ep4 First Twilight scene; several people resist. Now of course in the magic scene the killers have the advantage of magical methods, but if they don't, how do they ensure their success? Contrary to the whole "miracle" thing, I think the killer - or at least one group of the killers - is not taking any chances.

The best, and perhaps only "safe" way to murder a half-dozen people in the span of a couple hours is to incapacitate as many of them as possible in as little time as possible. One reason people suggest poison and drugs is because it's very easy to do; the unsuspecting family members all eat the same food and drink the same drinks. If a killer wanted to poison everyone to death, he or she could have done it at dinner with ease (which raises the question as to why they did not, but there could be many reasons why not).

There are other ways you could make sure people wouldn't fight back, but most of them require much less plausible methods (carbon monoxide or something).
Well, is it really as easy and risk-free as you say to poison people? The poison would almost certainly have to be something quick-acting if the culprit doesn't want it known that the deaths are caused by poison. Something slow acting would be almost impossible to predict where the person actually kicks the bucket, and that would be extremely risky (plus, if it takes them a while to actually die, one of them can just grab the closest phone).

However, if it's a quick action poison, you have to ensure that every single person in the group takes a lethal dose before the first one of them dies. Since dinner is obviously an out for a quick-acting poison, all that remains is tea, coffee, and snacks. All of those things are usually eaten slowly, so there's a fairly good chance that any group of 4 people would have at least one person who doesn't eat it soon enough, probably more.

In other words, shooting 4 people who are completely worn out and unsuspecting might actually be a more sure-fire way of killing them all with poison, especially if the culprit is a good shot. And furthermore, if the culprit really is killing people in a ritualistic manner, they might not want to use poison.
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Old 2010-04-15, 15:08   Link #8150
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Oh, come on. Battler makes several references to the stakes and even holds one in Ep2. They're clearly real.
I really only beleive 3 or 4 stakes exist at most,but not 7. One of the stakes is even described as being edible. There isn't any guarantee that all the stakes are shaped like metal drills. Or if you look at it the other way that there is a single set of them. The only time I've pinpointed a possible holder is when I suggested Rudolf made them at his niche company and that they were knock offs of an American product. But I'd rather only a few exist because only a few of them are ever seen in any set time limit. Which makes me think they're being reused.



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A "narrative coincidence" would be things happening "because the plot says so", not because they make any real sense. It's bad writing.
Well that does happen a lot. I even showed how the stakings can be portrayed out of order in the games once. Why are the second twilights staked anyway? There is nothing saying they have to be. I always thought the reason for that was because the second twilights were usually slip ups and they had already staked one person so they had to stake the other.
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Old 2010-04-15, 17:21   Link #8151
Oliver
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Here's the issue: Rosa and Natsuhi seem somewhat isolated in terms of likely participation in various groups. Yet they're the ones who are mentioned specifically as having access to drugs of various sorts. That isn't to say someone else couldn't, but I think it's easier to look at the things that have been given to us.
There's an interesting event in the very beginning of Ep1, which, apparently, repeats in Ep2 even though the scene where it should happen is glazed over completely.

When arriving to the harbour, Rosa immediately proceeds with giving Kumasawa a package, which she refers to as being tea. Since it's packaged we can't tell if it really is. Battler mentally remarks the promise must have been given a year ago and Rose would never forget a promise.

Battler must be mistaken, because in Ep4 Rosa readily forgets long term promises to her own daughter, let alone the family servants. Therefore, the promise must have been given fairly recently, if it was a promise at all and if it's even tea.

Therefore Rosa must have been in recent contact with Kumasawa in particular, which significantly muddles the issue of who can belong to which group.
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Old 2010-04-15, 17:26   Link #8152
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During the first day of Ep1, Maria behaves as if she has just had a moderate dose of a debilitating medication - she can barely string sentences together and cannot understand complex words and moderately complex concepts fly right past her.
...Well, that would explain that.

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I really only beleive 3 or 4 stakes exist at most,but not 7. One of the stakes is even described as being edible. There isn't any guarantee that all the stakes are shaped like metal drills. Or if you look at it the other way that there is a single set of them. The only time I've pinpointed a possible holder is when I suggested Rudolf made them at his niche company and that they were knock offs of an American product. But I'd rather only a few exist because only a few of them are ever seen in any set time limit. Which makes me think they're being reused.
I have said before that the stakes are labeled in the manga... I just don't think it's realistic to say that they're being reused.

At least five stakes have to exist, anyway, as proven by Ep2. Battler goes right from discovering Nanjo and Kumasawa to finding the remaining three... so why wouldn't there be seven stakes?

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Well that does happen a lot. I even showed how the stakings can be portrayed out of order in the games once. Why are the second twilights staked anyway? There is nothing saying they have to be. I always thought the reason for that was because the second twilights were usually slip ups and they had already staked one person so they had to stake the other.
That's not what I'd call "narrative coincidence", myself.

To me, it seems pretty obvious that the main culprit is "punishing" people for their various sins by staking them... it may be notable that the only unstaked individuals so far are Battler (because his sin is a spoiler) Maria (because she's sinless) and Rosa (because she has too many sins).
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Old 2010-04-15, 17:33   Link #8153
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For anybody proposing that in E3 / T 456, Rudolf, Kyrie, and Hideyoshi killed each other, what happened to their guns?
Kyrie hid them in another room or somewhere, then stabbed herself in the stomach to fake her death.
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Old 2010-04-15, 17:36   Link #8154
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...Well, that would explain that.
To me, it seems pretty obvious that the main culprit is "punishing" people for their various sins by staking them... it may be notable that the only unstaked individuals so far are Battler (because his sin is a spoiler) Maria (because she's sinless) and Rosa (because she has too many sins).
If it's that obvious than Kanon and Jessica are really the perfect people for that. They seem the most upright and moral. They would probably take it upon themselves to punish people for being horrible sinners.

Well just something I thought of. In episode 6 Shannon and Kanon have a common father right? Does this really have to refer to Kinzo as a father figure? They come from an orphanage so maybe the "Father" their referring to is a Catholic priest. Kanon seems high on the moral side anyway. He constantly points out to Shannon why these other people are "bad".




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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
I have said before that the stakes are labeled in the manga... I just don't think it's realistic to say that they're being reused.
I've been ignoring that evidence. Really it has no bearing on anything. It tells us whose sin is what, but it doesn't tell us a why about anything. It doesn't even really tell me what kind of personality the murderers have. It's just useless information.
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Old 2010-04-15, 17:42   Link #8155
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For anybody proposing that in E3 / T 456, Rudolf, Kyrie, and Hideyoshi killed each other, what happened to their guns?
Kyrie left them on the food cart before faking her death. The Umineko characters have some sort of weird aversion for checking closets and food carts.
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Old 2010-04-15, 17:49   Link #8156
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In Episode 4 of the SN, Ange has to look through a book to identify Mammon's stake, so it's probably not plainly written on it.
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Old 2010-04-15, 18:15   Link #8157
Oliver
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I've been trying to timeline some things while continuing my re-read with notes, in particular regarding Ep2.

In the flashback scene where Eva gives her the rebuttal about George, Shannon refers to herself as 'middle-schooler'. The word she uses in Japanese is "中学生", chuugakusei, which refers to 12-15 age range, no wiggle room beyond that.

The later scene, wherein Beatrice warns Shannon that soon George will have a marriage meeting, could only happen within a few weeks afterwards, otherwise George would have had the meeting already. Kinzo must still be alive at that moment -- otherwise Natsuhi's behaviour is unexplained, as she punishes Shannon by denying her food. If Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy were in effect at the time, that would be suicidal, as Natsuhi would directly punish someone on who's goodwill she relies. That places this scene between April 1984, when the portrait shows up, and October 3, 1985, which is the last point in time in which Kinzo could have died.

That means that by October 1986, Shannon cannot possibly be older than 17 even given generous birthday margins, and probably is 16, which would make her the same age as Kanon's according to Jessica. The minimum she can be is 13, but then there is no way she could have been working for ten years because that would involve her starting at 3. Mind you, starting work at 6 is also a stretch, because normally the 'graduates' of Fukuin are supposed to have a chance to work for Ushiromiyas, and the only institution you could graduate from at 6 is a kindergarten.

The preceding scene at the islet with the shrine seems to happen around September -- certainly autumn, due to the weather -- and can only happen in 1985, since the trip to Okinawa references the ring that George is to give Shannon during the upcoming family conference which happens 'soon'. A year is nowhere like 'soon', and the Okinawa trip to the aquarium is supposed to be some sort of an anniversary of the first meeting with George outside Rokkenjima, which also happened at an aquarium and was never shown.

Which puts the mirror breaking suspiciously close to when Kinzo is supposed to have died. It would be silly to think that breaking the mirror could somehow kill Kinzo by itself, but a pure coincidence would be similarly silly.

According to early scenes which seem to happen on the first day or very close in Ep2, Kumasawa states that the shrine was 'destroyed by a violet thunderbolt this summer'. While Kumasawa may readily embellish the manner in which the shrine vanished, I doubt she could have mistaken the timing, which has to have been in 1986 and disconnects the mirror breaking and the shrine vanishing, which makes me wonder if anything else interesting could have happened in summer 1986.

Last edited by Oliver; 2010-04-16 at 05:12.
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Old 2010-04-15, 18:21   Link #8158
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Which puts the mirror breaking suspiciously close to when Kinzo is supposed to have died. It would be silly to think that breaking the mirror could somehow kill Kinzo by itself, but a pure coincidence would be similarly silly.
Cool! Now we just have to find a connection with "magic toxin" and Kinzo's death and we have ourselves a winner here.

Interesting that the shrine being destroyed and the mirror breaking happen at different times though. I was under the impression that they were the same event.
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Old 2010-04-15, 18:22   Link #8159
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If it's that obvious than Kanon and Jessica are really the perfect people for that. They seem the most upright and moral. They would probably take it upon themselves to punish people for being horrible sinners.
I really want Jessica to be involved/responsible SOMEHOW.

The servants are the obvious and easy culprits, but I can't see Battler wanting to protect them as much as, say, his cousins.

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In Episode 4 of the SN, Ange has to look through a book to identify Mammon's stake, so it's probably not plainly written on it.
Good point. I still think it's unrealistic to think that the stakes aren't being used, though.

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Interesting that the shrine being destroyed and the mirror breaking happen at different times though. I was under the impression that they were the same event.
So was I. Now that IS interesting.
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Old 2010-04-15, 18:33   Link #8160
Judoh
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The servants are the obvious and easy culprits, but I can't see Battler wanting to protect them as much as, say, his cousins.
Battler wants to protect everybody. He could defeat the witch by always blaming it on another person, but he refuses to do so. That's why he's incompetent he always holds a double standard. He'd rather blame himself like he did in episode 5 than blame one of the people on the island..

He cares for everyone and apparently Beatrice even cares for the mastermind too.
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