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Old 2010-04-17, 13:54   Link #8221
rogerpepitone
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The letter was sealed with Kinzo's signet ring. In order to do that, somebody involved with sending it has to know of Kinzo's death.
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Old 2010-04-17, 14:02   Link #8222
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
What if Battler was the one who promised to show magic to Maria... and didn't?
The theory I'm talking about said that Battler promised to play with Maria every year and then when he left the family he couldn't. After that somebody pretended to be Beatrice knowing she liked the witch and wanted to cheer her up when Battler didn't return. So all Maria should remember about the sin is that Beatrice suddenly appeared, played with her, and taught her about magic. The person who pretended to be Beatrice did so because of Battler though.
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Old 2010-04-17, 15:11   Link #8223
chronotrig
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Hmm, just to sum up what we have:

*No one can mistake Kinzo by sight
*Maria claims to have been given the letter directly by Kinzo
*So, Maria lied about who she got the letter from
*Maria would never tell such a lie unless someone convinced her to
*So, someone convinced Maria to lie about Kinzo
*No one would have done this except Krauss, Natsuhi, possibly Jessica, or one of the servants+Nanjo-Gohda
*As impressionable as Maria is, I don't think she'd tell a lie for the sake of someone she didn't trust, so Nanjo, Natsuhi, Krauss and probably Genji are pretty much off the list
*This person would first have to notice that Maria was left alone, and know that Maria would stick to a lie if this person told her to
*Assuming that this person knew that in other episodes, there's a very good chance that they're the one who gave Maria that letter and convinced her that he/she was Beatrice in the previous episodes
*However, that letter was not something that Krauss and Natsuhi planned or wanted, unless they suddenly turned into good actors
*Furthermore, there's a high chance that the person who wrote that letter had the Head's Ring
**Sidenote: In EP5, either Shannon or Kanon is most likely to have the Head's Ring.

And also, about the meeting. We aren't sure where the "real" scenes stop and the lies begin, but let's assume that there's probably some truth to the first part. Someone "ordered" Krauss to hold a meeting where all of the servants and siblings/spouses were present. However, doesn't this list of people seem a bit odd? Krauss knows that Kinzo doesn't exist, so he's obviously not following Kinzo's orders, but he himself has absolutely nothing to gain from a meeting like this. Unless there is some reasonable explanation for him doing this, he must have been following the instructions of some other person.

I can't imagine why he'd follow the instructions of any one of the cousins or any one of the siblings+spouses. Then again, I can't imagine that he'd obey one of the servants unless he had something to lose by disobeying them. If all he has to lose is "I'm telling everyone about your secret if you don't follow my orders", that's not much of a threat. After all, the secret's already as good as out.

So, whose instructions could Krauss be following, and why?

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Old 2010-04-17, 15:45   Link #8224
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Threatening to reveal "Kinzo is dead." isn't much of a threat. Threatening to reveal "Kinzo is dead, and his body is located ____." is.
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Old 2010-04-17, 16:20   Link #8225
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Threatening to reveal "Kinzo is dead." isn't much of a threat. Threatening to reveal "Kinzo is dead, and his body is located ____." is.
Not a really big threat though. As Natsuhi points out in EP5, the "Kinzo ran away during the family conference and disappeared" plan was a long shot even then. However, if Kinzo were to disappear in EP4, right after that huge discussion and attack by Kyrie, it would be so pathetically obvious that you might as well just toss Kinzo's corpse in their faces. And knowing that 1986 was an act, it's easy to see that 1985 must have been an act as well.

The body would only make things worse if it was preserved in some shoddy way, but Krauss is already set to lose everything no matter what happens.
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Old 2010-04-17, 16:26   Link #8226
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I think you guys are forgetting: Maria does not directly say who she got the letter from that we see. Rosa says Maria told her Kinzo gave her the letter. So Maria could lie, or Rosa could lie. I don't think Battler ever sees anyone mention the letter at all.
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Old 2010-04-17, 16:42   Link #8227
chronotrig
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I think you guys are forgetting: Maria does not directly say who she got the letter from that we see. Rosa says Maria told her Kinzo gave her the letter. So Maria could lie, or Rosa could lie. I don't think Battler ever sees anyone mention the letter at all.
Actually, did anyone mention a letter in EP4? I thought Rosa just talked about the umbrella...

It's possible that Rosa lies, but I don't see what she has to gain from it. If she just sits there and lets Kinzo's death be revealed, she'll end up with all the money she needs to solve her problems and then some.
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Old 2010-04-17, 16:50   Link #8228
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Unless she's been recruited into either the Anti-Inheritance faction (Krauss + Natsuhi?) or the Beatrice faction, which also seems to want to maintain his alive status on that day.


Actually, if the fact that Kinzo is dead comes out, the parents wouldn't actually get any money. They'd just realize that Krauss spent all of it and then there's nothing to get. Krauss goes to jail and everyone else just splits whatever few remaining assets there are. So solving the Epitaph and getting the gold is really the only way for them to get anything... Maybe someone realized that?

Hey, so... isn't this a good reason to want to keep Kinzo 'alive?' Because as long as there's this intrigue about needing to solve the epitaph, there's a chance that they will get the gold. As soon as Kinzo is shown to be dead, I doubt anyone of the siblings would bother, seeing as they doubt the gold exists...
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Old 2010-04-17, 17:05   Link #8229
Marion
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
The theory I'm talking about said that Battler promised to play with Maria every year and then when he left the family he couldn't. After that somebody pretended to be Beatrice knowing she liked the witch and wanted to cheer her up when Battler didn't return. So all Maria should remember about the sin is that Beatrice suddenly appeared, played with her, and taught her about magic. The person who pretended to be Beatrice did so because of Battler though.
Whole thing is Maria doesn't even seem to remember Battler. She was only 3 when he left and not a lot of memories tend to stick with a child's mind until after 5.
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Old 2010-04-17, 17:12   Link #8230
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Unless she's been recruited into either the Anti-Inheritance faction (Krauss + Natsuhi?) or the Beatrice faction, which also seems to want to maintain his alive status on that day.
There are chances she is on one of those sides. In ep2 after the first twilight, when they find Jessica's body in her room "Shannon and Genji say that they couldn't be the killers because they were with Kinzo." Rosa then says that she talked to father and confirmed that Shannon and Genji were with him the whole time. Appearently 'Kinzo' even told Rosa what he had Shannon and Genji doing. Now we know Rosa wasn't talking to 'Kinzo' so why does she says this?
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Old 2010-04-17, 17:12   Link #8231
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Actually, if the fact that Kinzo is dead comes out, the parents wouldn't actually get any money. They'd just realize that Krauss spent all of it and then there's nothing to get. Krauss goes to jail and everyone else just splits whatever few remaining assets there are. So solving the Epitaph and getting the gold is really the only way for them to get anything... Maybe someone realized that?
Well, if we believe what we hear, Krauss was just about to get back on his feet. The siblings don't need all of the money Kinzo supposedly has, they just need a fraction of it quickly to get them out of their respective scrapes. And according to Rosa, they've already discovered that Krauss has enough in assets to fork over the 750 million. It might put Krauss back deep into debt and back to square one, but at least he'd be able to pay it and keep his position as the next family head (which doesn't really matter too much, without the money).

Their plan isn't to turn Krauss in to the authorities, just to blackmail him for all he's got by threatening to do so. That's why Krauss is able to fight back a little by pointing out how desperate they are for money.
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Old 2010-04-17, 17:22   Link #8232
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I have a big idea which basically goes along with the theory that the piece Battler and meta-Battler. But first I must ask the question: Has anyone checked if Erika sees Battler in first person view during episode 5 and/or 6 (if she's the detective at that time)? I say this because it gives a new angle to the murders on episode 5 (mainly the different order which the furniture speak of).

My idea is that, in the first four episodes, 'Fake Battler' was working with Rudolf to try and do... something... ( I haven't thought of that yet, but my evidence is at the end of episode 4). In episode 5, the 'Real Battler' chooses to return (who is actually competent, as Beatrice might put it). 'Fake Battler' may or may not be an avatar for Erika (and this is where my theory gets shaken), but perhaps because of this development. I also am now thinking Ange may be an avatar for Erika. But that may violate the Knox

The trap I think Ryukishi was speaking of was that Battler returned in Episode 5. Not that he solved the epitaph. Following this line of reasoning: The detective reasoning may be a series of smartly put together scenes intended to trick the reader, not unlike a certain piece of media which I will not mention for spoiler reasons. While the Knox rules say the detective may not be the culprit, that Author can still edit it around this, or Umineko isn't following the rules.

I have several other half baked theories. Please tear it apart. I'm looking forward to the replies.

P.S. If my theory turns out to be true; I have to admit; that few people would be disappointed. And Umineko would be one of the greatest Mysteries of all time

P.P.S I'll endulge in my other theories tomorrow (If I can be bothered( I hope that doesn't sound pretentious), it's 11 PM over here in Blighty (which may explain my lack of Grammar).

Last edited by Uberzaki; 2010-04-17 at 17:25. Reason: adding a bit extra to the trap part
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Old 2010-04-17, 17:28   Link #8233
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Quote:
I have a big idea which basically goes along with the theory that the piece Battler and meta-Battler. But first I must ask the question: Has anyone checked if Erika sees Battler in first person view during episode 5 and/or 6 (if she's the detective at that time)? I say this because it gives a new angle to the murders on episode 5 (mainly the different order which the furniture speak of).
If I remember correctly Erika thinks Battler jumps out the window in the Kinzo's study scene. Along with many other scenes. They are not in her POV, but to change Battler into a completely different character would violate Knox's rules. And anyway we know in eps 1-4 Battler is the detective. Knox's 7th it is forbidden for the detective to be the culprit.
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Old 2010-04-17, 18:09   Link #8234
Judoh
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Actually I've been suspecting this for awhile.

It may be possible to prove that someone else who is not Battler is the detective in certain episodes...

Frankly episode 4 is the most suspect here. He investigates a lot of things, but he's really more of a victim than a detective.
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Old 2010-04-17, 18:10   Link #8235
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I actually think the family is ruined financially if the gold isn't discovered or some disaster doesn't pool the assets (i.e. even if Eva did not "really" find the gold in Ange's 1998 or lost access to it, she still had the collective assets of her dead siblings). Kinzo's assets have been embezzled (or are tied up in the gold which only he and probably at least one servant knows exists), Krauss's assets are all tied up in slow-return investments (though if ep5 is to be believed, he has at least one that will eventually bear fruit), and the other siblings have immediate financial need.

If Krauss is concealing his assets, he may not actually have the money the siblings think he does to pay them immediately (maybe they think he does, but he might not, especially if he's so easily swindled). Even if he does ruin himself to pay them off, the family loses any trust it has because its head is caught up in scandal and bankruptcy, so now any weight the Ushiromiya family name had is spoiled. The siblings would be adrift on their own, which might hurt their business efforts in the future. If they knew how bad the situation really was they'd realize this, but no one trusts each other enough to talk frankly.

If Krauss's investment is given time to mature, the other siblings are ruined because they need the money immediately.

Basically, the gold - and only the gold - gets everyone out of their financial troubles. This leaves us in an awkward situation in ep5, however. Why pressure Natsuhi so hard to admit Kinzo is dead? At that point, everyone has agreed to make Battler the next head and distribute some of the gold to the other families. Even Eva is completely okay with this as long as she gets her money and Krauss doesn't get to be the head. Their problems have literally been solved. Why be so hard on Natsuhi of all people? Why not Krauss? Why does no one even seem to care that he's missing?
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Old 2010-04-17, 18:13   Link #8236
Judoh
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or some disaster doesn't pool the assets
You think that maybe somebody would blow up everything on the island for the insurance money?
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Old 2010-04-17, 18:18   Link #8237
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You think that maybe somebody would blow up everything on the island for the insurance money?
I'm not sure insurance covers explosions.

Though if the explosion was intended as an insurance claim, then it was oddly timed, and it would suggest the bomber didn't intend it to kill anyone. However, even if the conference happened as expected, surely Krauss and his family and the servants would have all been in the mansion on the night of the 5th. They aren't going to immediately run off on vacation, right?

I can maybe see Krauss blowing up his own house for insurance money, but I can't see him killing a bunch of people just for that. And it would be... somewhat suspicious if he told Natsuhi and Jessica out of the blue that they were going on a trip to Hawaii or something the very morning after the conference.

I wouldn't exactly put that sort of thing past Krauss, of course.
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Old 2010-04-17, 18:20   Link #8238
chronotrig
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Well, we're at least led to believe that all of the siblings are doing fairly well (except maybe Rosa), but that they've run into a sudden need for quick money. Hideyoshi's business is doing very well, and as long as he can keep it protected, he'll do just fine in the future. And if Rudolf can just get out of the fix this current trial has put him in, it sounds as though he'll also be able to manage just fine.

Yes, scandal would hurt the other siblings, which is why they want to resolve everything quietly. All that about reporting Krauss to the authorities is mostly a bluff, but it's a bluff that would hurt Krauss even more than just agreeing to pay them. According to EP5, Krauss was almost ready to let Kinzo "disappear" by the 1986 conference, so he should have enough money built up to cover the immediate costs of the siblings for the time being. It would mean waiting another year or two before he could finally get back on his feet, but that's better that letting Kinzo's secret be revealed and being ruined for life.

In other words, everyone will "survive" financially if Krauss pays up to the other siblings, but it would delay Krauss's plans by several years and mean that the others could blackmail him whenever they wanted. This is assuming that many things we hear are actually true.
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Old 2010-04-17, 18:35   Link #8239
chronotrig
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Basically, the gold - and only the gold - gets everyone out of their financial troubles. This leaves us in an awkward situation in ep5, however. Why pressure Natsuhi so hard to admit Kinzo is dead? At that point, everyone has agreed to make Battler the next head and distribute some of the gold to the other families. Even Eva is completely okay with this as long as she gets her money and Krauss doesn't get to be the head. Their problems have literally been solved. Why be so hard on Natsuhi of all people? Why not Krauss? Why does no one even seem to care that he's missing?
Ah, that's a good point. Actually, they have a very good motive for doing that if we accept that theory we were working on earlier. If Battler is directing everyone to stage a set of fake murders meant to be unsolvable for Erika, it's likely that Eva, Kyrie, Rudolf and Hideyoshi were part of that group. It's possible that Shannon/Kanon/Sayo told them about the secret of Kinzo's death, but we don't know for sure.

So, when we reach the battle in the study, what is the "best" plan of action for making an impossible crime? Obviously, having Kinzo "exist" and running around all over the place makes it much harder to construct a crime that looks impossible. It's like having the old 19th person all over again. If Erika's theories are ever shattered, she can just say "Kinzo did it" and solve many supposedly unsolvable closed rooms, instead of being forced to give up.

Looked at this way, the real question isn't "why did they pressure Natsuhi?", but "why did Battler let Kinzo get away?" Maybe there's another explanation, but to me, the simplest seems to be that he somehow figured out that the illusion of Kinzo was very important to Shannon/Sayo, and he argued against Erika for her sake. That would explain why we are shown him and Beato dancing around outside, and why Beato was thanking Battler for protecting her illusion.

Well, I guess Battler might just have done it because he felt sorry for Natsuhi. That works too.
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Old 2010-04-17, 19:01   Link #8240
Judoh
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Looked at this way, the real question isn't "why did they pressure Natsuhi?", but "why did Battler let Kinzo get away?" Maybe there's another explanation, but to me, the simplest seems to be that he somehow figured out that the illusion of Kinzo was very important to Shannon/Sayo, and he argued against Erika for her sake. That would explain why we are shown him and Beato dancing around outside, and why Beato was thanking Battler for protecting her illusion.

Well, I guess Battler might just have done it because he felt sorry for Natsuhi. That works too.
Battler has said several times that he cares for everyone on the island like family. Even the servants, but Erika is a complete stranger to him. The only motive he should need is wanting to protect anyone in the family from being a criminal. Even if he has to use the most demonic wildly twisted logic possible to do that. It doesn't have to be about anybody, but himself. Battler is selfish. He wants to protect his good images of the people he loves, but he doesn't care for Erika and he'd argue anything to make sure that outsider is wrong. His double standard is that he has to deny the bad things in people to protect his good images of his family. He cares too much and doesn't want anyone he cares for to be a bad person. Even when all of those people in front of him are dropping like flies he refuses to doubt.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-17 at 19:18.
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