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Old 2010-04-23, 14:12   Link #8781
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
Shkanon isn't confirmed. I think it's just a huge trap in the end.
Shkanon and Erika can't be the trap though. It just doesn't make sense that way. If Land of the Golden witch is a group of reds than characters are most certainly not involved. But some sort of unnecessary thing that we haven't thought about is definitely part of that content.

And I agree this interview hasn't confirmed anything. It's basically the same reused metaphors that he's written in the story over and over. There would also be no point in saying this if that was his intention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryukishi
If this tale were to tell you the answer so plainly that you didn't have to think about it, it would no longer be a game.

For that reason, I want to let people who have thought everything out be confident that the answer they have found is the right one.
This may give further hints to those who still haven't figured out everything, but they will not be able to understand the one final point...

That is how I want to write. That is why this work called Umineko is a 'game'.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:13   Link #8782
Jan-Poo
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It appears shkanon won't be "confirmed" even after EP7, that seems to be what Ryuukishi has in mind.

He won't give a definitive answer anyway. We'd better be prepared for that.

Quote:
At this point, yes, he's definitely talking about that. Which makes Umineko possibly the worst mystery I've ever read.
It's too early to say that, but yeah my BS'o'meter is on the red zone. But that's really nothing new actually. I've been saying for a while that Ryukishi placed himself into a mined field.

If he manages to get outside it unscated he will prove to be a genius
If not... he will disappoint a lot of readers...

Quote:
So is Kanonzo, though, and that is something that hardly anybody's taken back and applied to the first four episodes.
Yes at this point Kinzo-Kanon is your only shield against shkanon. Too bad there is only one thing that could really point at it.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:17   Link #8783
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Yes at this point Kinzo-Kanon is your only shield against shkanon. Too bad there is only one thing that could really point at it.
Eh.. I still have one more sheild besides Kinzo Kanon. The other Battler theory.

If anybody wants to borrow my theory in the episode 6 thread about Kanon being "Kinzo Jr." born from Kinzo's Mistress Beatrice. Be my guest.

Maybe you can explain the "recognizing a living Kinzo thing" without it being a title that way.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:19   Link #8784
LyricalAura
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Yes at this point Kinzo-Kanon is your only shield against shkanon. Too bad there is only one thing that could really point at it.
I think you missed this post.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:21   Link #8785
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
He won't give a definitive answer anyway. We'd better be prepared for that.
If he's going to follow the traditional (read: Christie) mystery formula at all there WILL be a confrontation with the culprit of some kind. Probably.

He definitely won't go into the closed rooms, though, which pretty much confirms my earlier suspicion that not even he knows how any of them work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
If not... he will disappoint a lot of readers...
He's never going to sell another game and will go down in history as the biggest joke in the mystery genre. That's how bad it will be.

What especially bothers me is that he's dropping answers this early. In normal mysteries, you hide everything until the last chapter, which is usually devoted to the detective explaining everything while the readers gape in awe and slap their foreheads, exasperated at their own stupidity.

This time I feel I'll be slapping my forehead in exasperation at the author's stupidity.

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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Yes at this point Kinzo-Kanon is your only shield against shkanon. Too bad there is only one thing that could really point at it.
In normal mysteries, I'd be more suspicious of tiny hints and off-hand comments. (Go read Ordeal By Innocence, for example. The culprit isn't very interesting but it's a great exercise in understanding how mystery authors hide clues in plain sight.) But this is Ryukishi, who doesn't know how to be subtle, apparently.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:34   Link #8786
Judoh
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One thing I didn't expect though. Ryu hasn't suggested anything about a new detective in episode 7. So maybe Battler really is going to be the detective again. It'd be easier to end the game that way.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:35   Link #8787
Jan-Poo
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Yeah I missed that post but let's be serious, most of those points are just holes that you can use to place a Kinzo-Kanon theory, but not a hint of that. some of them are incredibly long shots. Plus there's one point that is flat out wrong:

Quote:
Kanon remaining on the island an abnormal amount of time despite not having a clear reason
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:35   Link #8788
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
One thing I didn't expect though. Ryu hasn't suggested anything about a new detective in episode 7. So maybe Battler really is going to be the detective again.
Or Erika isn't gone after all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Yeah I missed that post but let's be serious, most of those points are just holes that you can use to place a Kinzo-Kanon theory, but not a hint of that.
If not for Ep6, everything hinting towards Shkanon would be "points that are just holes to place the theory".
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:37   Link #8789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
Ah, sorry, it must have been the way I worded it. I meant the chain-locked rooms from EP1, EP5, and EP6.

But that's another good point. EP3's first twilight kills off both Shannon and Kanon right at the start. Yet we see their ghosts at the very end. Shkanon can't explain that, because if both Kanon and Shannon are confirmed dead in red (which they are) then Sayo can't be alive at all. So what do ghost-Kanon and revived-Shannon represent?
Oh, seems like I was mistaken. Well, I think the Hideyoshi/Eva room in both EP1 and it's apparent parallel in EP5 are the hardest ones to solve. I thought of the culprit breaking into the room with the pliers and killing them, then pretending to cut the chain. This would probably involve Genji as an accomplice. But then I thought about the EP5 one, where the culprit really seems to kill him inside the room while the chain is set. I actually think it would be best if the murders are a little simpler in nature, and not some complicated wire-etc-tricks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I think you missed this post.
Oh I was just thinking about who the Kinzo the parents recognized in EP4 might be, and I thought of Kanon because lack of real name. But this was an entirely new thought for me, for Kanon to have polydactyly, where he might be the one in the boiler sometimes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
If he's going to follow the traditional (read: Christie) mystery formula at all there WILL be a confrontation with the culprit of some kind. Probably.

He definitely won't go into the closed rooms, though, which pretty much confirms my earlier suspicion that not even he knows how any of them work.
I hope for a confrontation with the culprit, wondering how awesome that'll be. Shannon with a shotgun maybe? I have always wanted to see that.

And I wouldn't write a mystery story without knowing the answers first (or at least not publish it before that). Unless Ryukishi really plans to play that way. At least he can set the atmosphere
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:37   Link #8790
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Or Erika isn't gone after all.
You think he's going to have her be in a doll coma like Beatrice due to the shackle rule so we can sympathize with her?

I don't think she's going to be a detective again after the whole throwing it away to be a murderer thing.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:43   Link #8791
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
If not for Ep6, everything hinting towards Shkanon would be "points that are just holes to place the theory".
Yes. And that's precisely why I've never really thought the shkanon theory was anything more than an interesting speculation until EP6

But let's change subject for a while, I admit I don't really have much will to discuss shkanon theory again so I'll just stop here for now.


Let's analyze this:

Quote:
Ryuukishi: That may have been the first time the word appeared, but the epilogue of EP1 did say that "the jaw was the only part of Maria's corpse that could be found". Furthermore, in EP4, it was shown that Ange's boat was unable to dock at the mansion's harbor and that the remains of the mansion were missing, so it should be possible to link that with "something happened that changed the terrain". So, the words "Rokkenjima Explosion accident" are not a hint, but one of the answers. To go even further, one could say that all things that appeared after EP5 are not hints, but part of the answer.
there are two very important hints in here.
- First off we have a confirmation that the dock not being there is something related to the incident and not something explainable with decay after all that time. As usual Ryukishi seems to think things are obvious when they are not.
- Second he talks about something happened that changed the terrain.

So at this point there shouldn't really be any doubt that this is a large scale disaster. Think about the distance between the Mansion and the dock, it's huge! A simple boiler room explosion just doesn't work.

Chronotrig's idea of a boiler room that triggers a landslide might work. However in this case the relevant incident is the landslide because it's certainly of a larger scale than the boiler explosion, which would just become the trigger.
Bombs could also be a trigger, but they are a lot harder to be explainable as an accident.

then there's still the volcano related theories.

Any other idea of such a large scale disaster?

I hope it's not a meteorite XD
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:48   Link #8792
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluemail View Post
I hope for a confrontation with the culprit, wondering how awesome that'll be. Shannon with a shotgun maybe? I have always wanted to see that.
Well, this is assuming there's a confrontation at all. At this point, I'd expect a meta-confrontation rather than a board one, as he apparently doesn't want to tell us outright who the culprit is (which is a terrible idea, but whatever.)

Actually, I should bring that up, too.

Although mysteries are indeed supposed to be a game between the author and reader, they're a game with a time limit: the end of the book.

The reason the riddles are always unraveled in the end and the culprit revealed is so that everyone who reads the mystery can enjoy it in their own way: The really smart or intuitive people can revel in the idea that they were right all along, and the people who just read it to be trolled can, well, be trolled.

What Ryukishi is doing by not directly revealing the identity of the culprit and how the puzzles were constructed is making Umineko unenjoyable for those people who just want to read it for trolling/the story. I don't think this is fair at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluemail View Post
And I wouldn't write a mystery story without knowing the answers first.
No one can or could. When constructing a mystery, you start with the culprit and then set up each riddle that you want the detective and readers to answer, and THEN you add a story that fits with those things and THEN you write the book.

If you don't do this, you're not writing a mystery, you're writing a farce.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I don't think she's going to be a detective again after the whole throwing it away to be a murderer thing.
Bern could just erase her memory again like she did in Ep5. The only other character Ryukishi's gotten rid of is Eva-Beato... why stop now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Yes. And that's precisely why I've never really thought the shkanon theory was anything more than an interesting speculation until EP6
Ah, yeah, I see where you're coming from now.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:50   Link #8793
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
If not for Ep6, everything hinting towards Shkanon would be "points that are just holes to place the theory".
Let's turn the chessboard over. You're Ryukishi, and you're going to reveal important details of the mystery in EP7. So what do you do for EP6?

You write it as a huge trap directed at the readers so that the reveal will be more interesting. The entire episode "hints" at Shkanon. But that doesn't mean it's true. It's possible Ryukishi planned this trap from the very beginning. Two characters who look alike, and are never seen together at the same time by a reliable source. That sounds really suspicious right from the start. Isn't that the definition of a red herring?

As long as it has a 0.00000001% chance of being wrong, then a miracle can occur and Shkanon won't be true.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:53   Link #8794
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
You write it as a huge trap directed at the readers so that the reveal will be more interesting. The entire episode "hints" at Shkanon. But that doesn't mean it's true. It's possible Ryukishi planned this trap from the very beginning. Two characters who look alike, and are never seen together at the same time by a reliable source. That sounds really suspicious right from the start. Isn't that the definition of a red herring?
I'm going to turn over the chessboard on your chessboard.

The points you've outlined assumes that the author is, in fact, a person who knows how to write a proper mystery and understands that hints are supposed to be subtle and red herrings obvious, and not the other way around.

If Ryukishi is NOT this kind of person, then your argument is invalid.

Additionally, I just really think it's telling that in the interview he practically tells us that YES, I GAVE AWAY A MAJOR ANSWER IN EP6, I WONDER WHAT IT IS, OOOOOOO.
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Old 2010-04-23, 14:56   Link #8795
SeagullCrazy
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
If Ryukishi is NOT this kind of person, then your argument is invalid.
Well, that's the main problem with chessboard thinking. It assumes your opponent is actually a good chess player.
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Old 2010-04-23, 15:00   Link #8796
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Hmm... hopefully Ryukishi is just hustling us then.
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Old 2010-04-23, 15:02   Link #8797
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Additionally, I just really think it's telling that in the interview he practically tells us that YES, I GAVE AWAY A MAJOR ANSWER IN EP6, I WONDER WHAT IT IS, OOOOOOO.
Really. I've read the interveiw too, and I think your making a fuss over nothing. I won't beleive in Shkanon until there is a red saying they are the same person.

Nothing he said specifically points to anything about Shannon or Kanon. The only characters he specifically talks about are Zepar and Furfur.

Also Maria has been called "the key" several times. She's the only character I've seen who bears that title. And the key could defintely be who or what she meets in every episode. has anybody ever guessed that right?

Neither you nor I have read episode 6 yet. I'm using the time while it's translated to reread 1-4 because according to Ryukishi that's where most of the important hints are.
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Old 2010-04-23, 15:03   Link #8798
Bluemail
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Well he's reputable at trolling after all. And speaking of trolls...
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeagullCrazy View Post
As long as it has a 0.00000001% chance of being wrong, then a miracle can occur and Shkanon won't be true.
Bernkastel save us (and Ryukishi)!

EDIT: Well I haven't read EP6, so I don't have too much ground to speculate about the true nature of Zepar and Furfur. But I have a feeling Maria is still important, her part can't be over with just Episode 4.
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Old 2010-04-23, 15:07   Link #8799
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I seriously doubt that the burned corpse in Ep 4 could be Kanon's. Kanon is much smaller than Battler.

In Episode 4, Battler doesn't explicitly state he pulled the body out of the furnace, but he did examine it closely enough to determine that it had six toes on each foot.

I have trouble imagining Battler examining Kanon's corpse and failing to identify it by size alone.
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Old 2010-04-23, 15:10   Link #8800
Judoh
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
I seriously doubt that the burned corpse in Ep 4 could be Kanon's. Kanon is much smaller than Battler.

In Episode 4, Battler doesn't explicitly state he pulled the body out of the furnace, but he did examine it closely enough to determine that it had six toes on each foot.

I have trouble imagining Battler examining Kanon's corpse and failing to identify it by size alone.
You nitpick at everyone's theories though.

I think Shannon is an inch taller than Kanon in the anime. Should that be proof they can't share the same corpse?
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