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Old 2010-04-25, 22:29   Link #9241
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Hmm. Weren't there a bunch of times when somebody giving false narration got a headache and a feeling that something was wrong? I know Kyrie had a couple scenes like that.
Poor Natsuhi, she must be lying pretty much constantly, not only about Kinzo, then.

Seriously though, there were several meta-statements regarding how a piece cannot do things that are against their nature. Possibly, saying things they know aren't true when they need to do this for plot purposes, rather than of their own volition, would have that effect.

I'll need to grep for all instances of headaches later, but right now I'm far more inclined to believe Rosa was something like Beatrice-2's disciple and designated successor than anything else. Succession may not have actually happened for some reason and Rosa tried to forget about it, but I expect the primary indoctrination did happen, and when Rosa violently asserts a very different worldview and rejects the witch, it is so effective precisely because it's in spite of personal experience.
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Old 2010-04-25, 23:22   Link #9242
SeagullCrazy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Poor Natsuhi, she must be lying pretty much constantly, not only about Kinzo, then.
So if headaches = remembering someone falling off a cliff many years ago, then when Rosa gets her headache in EP2 she was remembering her encounter with Beatrice 19 years ago.

Also, when Rosa first meets suit-Beatrice in EP2, Rosa's actions do make sense if you think she witnessed Beatrice's death 19 years ago. The only contradiction is the 3rd person narrative, which says that Rosa couldn't have known that person, and that she only knew her face from the portrait.
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Old 2010-04-26, 01:39   Link #9243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
In the beginning there was the Word. And the Word was an expletive. ----- Umineko Dates Timeline (spoilers)
How are you able to confirm that Shannon is not older than 17 years old? Who do you think is 19 years old?

Well, I suppose Shannon could be 17 years old. If the incident where Beatrice fell off the cliff happened at the end of 1969 she could have given birth to Shannon just before then.
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Old 2010-04-26, 01:55   Link #9244
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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
How are you able to confirm that Shannon is not older than 17 years old? Who do you think is 19 years old?

Well, I suppose Shannon could be 17 years old. If the incident where Beatrice fell off the cliff happened at the end of 1969 she could have given birth to Shannon just before then.
Unless your suggesting Shannon or Kanon were born from Kinzo's mistress I don't see them as being this 19 year old master. I'd think that they would have to be related to Kinzo or the original Beatrice for that to work. However that would also change Shannon's position from "furniture" to "master of the island". In which case I don't think chronotrig's explanation for furniture would work with Shannon in his theory if she was. If either of those two were the "master of the island" they wouldn't be furniture anymore.

So if Kinzo is literally the father of both Shannon and Kanon you better watch out. Because that makes them more powerful candidates than the cousins for the headship. It also put Shkanon theory in danger by raising their rank beyond furniture. If someone can prove that Kanon is Kinzo's 19 year old son i.e prove it is possible for Jessica to be 21 making Kanon 19, it is possible for him to be named after his father. He would also be the youngest sibling after Rosa making him a candidate for the headship.

I think the cousins have an equal chance to being the 19 year old master. Heck Battler could be the 19 years old master and not know about it with all this birth nonsense. But if Battler is 19 I would think Jessica would be also.

EDIT: Either Shannon or Kanon are one of the masters of the island or they are both furniture that serve under Kinzo. You have to choose. You can't have it both ways because it leads to too many contradictions.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-04-26 at 02:44.
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Old 2010-04-26, 02:56   Link #9245
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Unless your suggesting Shannon or Kanon were born from Kinzo's mistress I don't see them as being this 19 year old master. I'd think that they would have to be related to Kinzo or the original Beatrice for that to work. However that would also change Shannon's position from "furniture" to "master of the island". In which case I don't think chronotrig's explanation for furniture would work with Shannon in his theory if she was. If either of those two were the "master of the island" they wouldn't be furniture anymore.

So if Kinzo is literally the father of both Shannon and Kanon you better watch out. Because that makes them more powerful candidates than the cousins for the headship. It also put Shkanon theory in danger by raising their rank beyond furniture. If someone can prove that Kanon is Kinzo's 19 year old son i.e prove it is possible for Jessica to be 21 making Kanon 19, it is possible for him to be named after his father. He would also be the youngest sibling after Rosa making him a candidate for the headship.

I think the cousins have an equal chance to being the 19 year old master. Heck Battler could be the 19 years old master and not know about it with all this birth nonsense. But if Battler is 19 I would think Jessica would be also.

EDIT: Either Shannon or Kanon are one of the masters of the island or they are both furniture that serve under Kinzo. You have to choose. You can't have it both ways because it leads to too many contradictions.
Ok, then I choose Shannon as the master. I think she's 19 years old and her mother was the Beatrice who fell off the cliff. She gave birth to Shannon before she died.

Who's the father? I don't think Kinzo. Why? Look back at what Kanon said in episode 6:
そうさ。だからあいつも死ね。みんな死ね。

I don't think Kanon would use aitsu to refer to Kinzo in the same episode where there is a flashback of him getting along with Kinzo. That is too disrespectful of tone. Also, Kinzo is already dead right? Why does he need to die again?

I think the father is Rudolf. I think Kanon is 18 years old and his parents are Asumu and Rudolf.

Rudolf may have found Kuwadorian in 1966. Why doesn't he ever talk about it? Because of what he ended up doing to Beatrice there... If Kinzo would have found out then he probably would be killing his own son right?

So Shannon is 19 years old and her parents are Beatrice and Rudolf.

Rudolf's sin, their father's sin... In the letters in the bottles, which Shannon wrote, Rudolf dies fast. Also, he knows he's going to be killed right? Ah, he's the only one who says he's going to be killed.
Yes, the plan to kill him fast. He has many sins.
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Old 2010-04-26, 03:00   Link #9246
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It doesn't work. If Shannon is the master of the island she can't be furniture also because she has a rank where she doesn't have to take orders from anyone. If she is no longer Furniture she can't be one of the personalities Sayo uses. Under Chronotrigs theory BOTH Shannon and Kanon are furniture that Sayo is as a person. If one of them is not furniture his whole theory falls apart.
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Old 2010-04-26, 03:03   Link #9247
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Well, you have to ask Chronotrig about his version of Shkanon. Mine is almost the same as yours.

There is a duel between them because the mastermind forces it. Also, the mastermind is the cause of their furniture complex in my theory.

Edit: The key difference I think is that you don't like the idea of Shannon or Kanon disguising as the other. I don't think it's difficult for Kanon to disguise as Shannon. They have a similar appearance so that's a clue that they have the same father right?
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Old 2010-04-26, 03:12   Link #9248
Judoh
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Hmmm. Okay. Do you have any idea what happens in the episodes where Shannon loses the duel in your theory then? If she's the master of the island wouldn't that change the theme of the game somehow when she dies?

Also which ep in your sig is your furniture complex explanation in?
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Old 2010-04-26, 03:19   Link #9249
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Shannon loses the duel in episode 1 in my theory but she doesn't die. Regarding her death at the beginning of an episode, it only happens in episode 3 I think.

The furniture complex is partially explained in the main 'Asumu Theory' section in the 'Manipulating Shannon and Kanon' tab. There are more details to it but everything takes a long time to write out and I've been busy.
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Old 2010-04-26, 05:19   Link #9250
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I don't like something like "Sayo imagined herself to be Kanon because of some trauma", or anything involving multiple personalities. I come up with the following version which I found acceptable, not sure if most readers would buy it as well.

A version of Shkanon:

Backtstory: 19 years ago, Beatrice died from falling down a cliff, because of Rosa. Since Kinzo had been trying to resurrect the initial Beatrice, he had been keeping the eggs from Beatrice. The first successfully made child was given to Natsuhi, who killed the baby and the maid.

Latter, Kinzo did not give the babies to anyone more but to bring them up in the orphanage. Sayo was one of them (The biological father could be Kinzo, but I prefer Genji)

Sayo was adopted as a servant for Ushiromiya family, codename Shannon. Since Kinzo wanted to have a close monitor of Sayo's situation. Sayo initially thought that she was a normal human, but after she turned 13-14, she was told by Kinzo and Genji that she was but a tool to resurrect the initial Beatrice (EP2), thus the furniture complex.

Yoshiya was Sayo's real biological brother, and he was called to work on Rokkenjima as well, codename Kanon. However because of his fragile body, he could not accomplish many tasks. Sayo, in fear that Kanon would be punished, started imposing as Kanon to do his tasks. Of course, Genji discovered this latter (because he arranged the work schedule), but he did not expose it to Kinzo.

Sayo's imposing as Kanon was not discovered by kinzo, then because of Kinzo's traditional thoughts, he wanted Beatrice's son to inherit his wealth, so he chose Kanon as the next head of Ushiromiya family.

It was possible that Kanon died during this period (or just being very sick) but in fear that it would aggravate Kinzo's situation, Genji proposed Sayo had to impose as Kanon to hide it until Kinzo's death.

Still, even after Kinzo's death, Sayo did not want to make Kanon disappear because she knew Jessica would be very sad, so she decided to maintain the facade.

Then 4th Oct, 1986 came...


No DID, split personality, it allows a possibility for a mastermind to use this secret to intimidate Sayo into conforming as well. One could make it into Shkanontrice, but it isn't necessary. Basically I was trying to provide a not-so-lame explanation of Shkanon.
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Old 2010-04-26, 05:49   Link #9251
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
How are you able to confirm that Shannon is not older than 17 years old? Who do you think is 19 years old?
Statements about 'I was a middle schooler' and dating the meeting with George they correspond to are the basis.
Shannon's age, actually, can be inferred from multiple quotes with different margin of error and you always get 16. If anyone's 19 years old at all, a girl named Kanon would be my choice, as Kanon gets much less age references and is too flimsy for a boy of that age - but good enough for a 19-year old girl.
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Old 2010-04-26, 05:59   Link #9252
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I guess there is little reason to lie about the age of Sayo when she got into the family.

Why did she have to be 3 years less old?
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Old 2010-04-26, 06:29   Link #9253
Oliver
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
I guess there is little reason to lie about the age of Sayo when she got into the family.

Why did she have to be 3 years less old?
I don't subscribe to that -- or, for that matter, Shkanon. My current guess is that their inferred ages are true, and that if Kanon does not have a body, a satisfactory way for him not to is not yet determined.

I have so far only imagined one scenario that would produce a Shkanon I find believable. The problem with it is that it is believable because of personal experiences (which would be rather unbelievable themselves if retold) and hinges on a social antipattern that I have, so far, only observed occurring four times, (two times personally, two more through trusted sources) and have never seen described in full in literature, either fiction or specialized. I find it doubtful Ryukishi could know about it. In Umineko, this would only happen if Shkanon+Jessitrice and if Jessitrice is created deliberately by Kinzo with full cooperation of the staff with anything Jessica pulls as part of it. In short it doesn't fit very well either.

There is an interesting trace thought floating in the back of my head based on their sprites -- Shannon is slightly taller, looks wider in shoulders... so they could both be crossdressing for a yet unknown reason. But basing anything on sprites in Umineko would be a big stretch.
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Old 2010-04-26, 08:10   Link #9254
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Ryukishi said that we should use the "key" we have found and apply it to episode 1-4. So I want to try to see what happens if I try to match the most popular theories with a scene of EP1 that I consider most relevant in order to understand what's going on.

It's when we see the servants talking about Shannon's death while not aware of Battler listening to the conversation.
The fact that Battler is listening, should prove that this event is 100% true. There might still be a chance that they noticed him and were playacting, but I find this improbable. Anyway I'll start:


Quote:
After the silence had continued for some time, .........Kanon opened his mouth and muttered.

Kanon: ...............Shannon... ............Why..., did she have to die in such a horrible way...?
If shkanon is true, this might sound like a preposterous question. Kanon should know Shannon didn't die. However this could be interpreted in another way. The Sayo personality might be attached to her other personalities and here she might be grieving for the fact that she won't be able to be "Shannon" ever again and on top of that they recreated a very sad way to kill her.

However with Shkanontrice in mind, this still looks strange. Kanon here is talking as if it wasn't his idea. Even if he's part of the plot, it looks like he didn't want to do that.

With Kanon-Kinzo in mind, you'd wonder who or what could have more power than him to go against his desires.

Quote:
Genji: ......Forget about how she died. .........It was nothing more than...bad luck.

Kanon: .........You're right. ...It was nothing more than bad luck.

They both fell silent once again. ...Kanon's expression was filled with grief.
Bad luck. Why is it bad luck? Do they actually use a roulette to choose the victims? However they both agree on that.

With the fake murder plot in mind, you might wonder why they are so sad. Also it seems impossible that they aren't part of it. If thee is a fake murder plot the chances that those 3 aren't part of the conspiracy are almost none. Then maybe they are forced to follow some rules?

With Kanon-Kinzo in mind, you'd notice that from the way they talk Genji is clearly the boss. If Kanon had a higher status than Genji you'd think that it's very unlikely for Genji to talk like that. Unless there is an odd agreement about them to keep talking like that even in private.

Quote:
Kumasawa: To think that Shannon-chan's actually dead... I still can't believe it. ......Poor, poor Shannon-chan... ......Not being able to meet her again feels like a lie... I just wanted to see that girl's smiling face one more time...

Kumasawa spoke with her back facing them. ...After all, Kumasawa hadn't seen Shannon's corpse, so she had no trouble mentioning Shannon's face. ...When Kanon heard those words, it reminded him again of how only half of Shannon's face had been left, and his grieving expression twisted even further...
Now I don't really trust the narrator. The narrator is Battler as it becomes clear later. So what the narrator say are just Battler's interpretations of what happen, so I'll just stick with what the people say.

With Shkanon in mind you could think that Kumasawa is just talking about the fact that Sayo won't be Shannon ever again.

Quote:
Kanon: .........Why did Beatrice do that to Shannon...? ......If she wanted a sacrifice, there were plenty of others to choose from... ......Why..., ......why...?
okay this is the part that is totally at odd with shkanontrice and kanontrice.
If Kanon was Beatrice why would he be so upset about Beatrice's decisions?
This one is very hard to justify unless you claim it's DID.

with the fake murder plot in mind, this still causes a problem. Unless they are totally unaware of Beatrice's plans (which seem unlikely), Kanon would just need to ask to beatrice why. Also if Shannontrice is true and shkanon is not, why Kanon is so upset? This would become: "Beatrice faked her own death", get over with it man, it's not the end of the world!

Quote:
Genji: .........It was nothing more than bad luck. ...If we were less lucky, one of us could have been lying out there. And it could have been anyone else. ......Everything is left to fate.
Again, fate, bad luck. Why is it fate?

Quote:
Kanon: Genji-sama. .........You said that the door to Madam's room was stained with traces of something like blood, right...? The same substance that was painted on the shutter?

Genji: ......Hmmm. ...It was the trace of something unpleasant. Almost as though someone with blood-stained fingers had been trying to pull out the doorknob, ...no, scratch through the door... ...That sort of unpleasant mark.

Kanon: So does this mean that... Beatrice-sama came to visit Madam's room, ......and tried to open the door, but couldn't...?
Okay this is even more at odd with Kanontrice and Shkanontrice. If Kanon is Beatrice why does she need to ask Genji what happened there?

Again you need to imagine someone of the three is clueless.
With Kanon clueless you need to think he has DID.
With Genji clueless, then it's Kanon playacting to shed any suspicion on himself. But Genji seems to know very well what's going on
With Kumasawa clueless then Genji and Kanon are playacting to fool her, but Kumasawa also is very unlikely to not know the truth about "Beatrice"

and again from the "fake murder scenario" theory, you still have a problem explaining why Kanon doesn't know the details of what happened. Even if for some reasons he didn't know, Genji shouldn't have problems tell him, why being so evasive?
I would like to point out, that no one here talks about the scorpion charm.
Genji should have said: "well we planned to "kill" Natsuhi but there was that scorpion charm that forced us to change our plans".
They seriously do not seem to be aware of that.


Quote:
Genji thought back to the time he had seen those traces of blood on the door to Natsuhi's room... With the substance sticking to the door around the doorknob, and the marks of something scratching against the door... it had definitely appeared as though someone had tried to open the door, but couldn't...

Kanon: ...Why, .........was Madam not chosen as a sacrifice...? If only she had been chosen, ......Shannon wouldn't, ......Shannon wouldn't have had to die...

Just then, a loud, sharp noise came in from the hall. Both of them turned around, surprised.

Battler: ..................It sounds like you're having a pretty interesting discussion. Let me join in too.
Again here Kanon asks "why" Natsuhi wasn't chosen, as if he's really totally clueless about the reason, which is at odd with any kanontrice, shkanontrice and fake-murder conspiracy.

Also if Kanon was Kinzo you'd think he'd be a lot less helpless than this. A Kanon-Kinzo should have the means to find Beatrice and question her. After all Beatrice uses Kinzo's envelopes and has the ring, it's impossible that "Kinzo" and "Beatrice" do not know each other.

So what do you think?
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Old 2010-04-26, 09:31   Link #9255
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
So what do you think?
While I agree with most of your points, I must say that if the murders were planned to be fake, but they abruptly and unexpectedly for the perpetrators of those turned real, "bad luck" and "fate" statements still make sense if the 'victims' were chosen randomly based on their location at the time -- the plan was prepared beforehand but some actual details were left to the implementation in place.

This way, even though they themselves picked the 'victims', them dying is 'fate' due to 'bad luck'.
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Old 2010-04-26, 10:00   Link #9256
Oliver
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Abrupt. Here are a few points for Gaap being a representation of Rosa of all people:
  • While there has been an argument proposing that all the magical representations of characters have the One Wing if their vessels have the one wing, this is not true in case of Virgilia, because Kumasawa is not wearing the One Wing, while Virgilia wears one on her sash. Therefore, One Wing is not a strict requirement.
  • Gaap is the only character who makes a point to discuss her clothes and clothing brands. Rosa is in the clothing design business.
  • Possibly the most interesting argument. Gaap's special ability is making things lost and hidden by swiping them to nowhere as Gaap's TIPS and speech attests. In episode 4, it is mentioned that Maria's room is in a state of perpetual chaos, and were things to be rearranged in a proper order of any kind, Maria would not be able to find anything. That would make them inexplicably lost. Maria refers to Gaap all the way back in Ep1 and she is clearly aware of the ability. The only one beside Maria who can rearrange anything in Maria's room is Rosa. Therefore Maria ascribes Rosa's actions to Gaap.
  • Gaap says she is a guest on the island. Rosa is hardly native to it either.
  • Gaap is friends with Beatrice. Rosa is clearly more friendly with the servants, at least outwardly, than any of the sibling generation and actually offers to drink coffee with Shannon at one point while in Battler's presence, a familiarity which would be unthinkable for, say, Natsuhi or Eva. Alternatively, if Shannon is not Beatrice, Rosa very well may have had a much longer contact with Beatrice-2 than she claims to, which would also fit quite well.
  • Gaap openly expresses admiration for George. There is nothing unthinkable about Rosa wishing George to have been her own son instead of Maria, and even if we assume Gaap's lines in this scene mean something more romantic, they're in distant, but not too distant age brackets, with the difference being just over ten years at most.

Generally, Jessica and Shannon are seen as the major Gaap vessel candidates, followed by the paradoxical Nanjo, but few people seem to consider Rosa seriously.
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Old 2010-04-26, 10:21   Link #9257
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Again here Kanon asks "why" Natsuhi wasn't chosen, as if he's really totally clueless about the reason, which is at odd with any kanontrice, shkanontrice and fake-murder conspiracy.

Also if Kanon was Kinzo you'd think he'd be a lot less helpless than this. A Kanon-Kinzo should have the means to find Beatrice and question her. After all Beatrice uses Kinzo's envelopes and has the ring, it's impossible that "Kinzo" and "Beatrice" do not know each other.

So what do you think?
I thought something like this: what would happen if Beatrice was narrating the conversation, and Battler actually only heard one or two lines before he entered the room? Then the conversation from his perspective looks like:

Quote:
Kanon: ...Why, .........was Madam not chosen as a sacrifice...? If only she had been chosen, ......Shannon wouldn't, ......Shannon wouldn't have had to die...
Read: "Why didn't we have Madam act as one of the sacrifices instead of having Shannon fill in for her? If she'd been the one lying out there, Shannon wouldn't have gotten killed."
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Old 2010-04-26, 10:39   Link #9258
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This Beatrice, the mastermind probably, told them not to use Natsuhi. She didn't tell the servants why thought, no-one knows about the scorpion charm. Only one who'd know about it would be Jessica or Natsuhi. This is one of the points I base my suspicion on Jessica. But for what reason she would not include Natsuhi as a sacrifice on the first twilight, when she does that in Episodes 2 and 4, well no other episodes have those scorpion charms in use and they met by a chance. But as shown by that scene, she does care for her mother after all. And wanted to be with her a bit longer.

As for Gaap, because she is Beatrice's friend she is also Maria's. If Gaap is Rosa, maybe he just wanted Maria to be happy with that. Rosa might have actually planned the Halloween party in EP2, not part of the murder, when the killer took her chance. I like it, I want Rosa take even more part

Also, a random thought of the original Kanon/Yoshiya being the servant falling off the cliff. But because it happened way too early... With that theory of ijriim's, Shannon couldn't be fooling Kinzo with a Kanon younger than the actual dead one
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Old 2010-04-26, 11:10   Link #9259
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
*Gaap says she is a guest on the island. Rosa is hardly native to it either.
If Rosa isn't a "native" who else is? I think only Jessica could claim that... and Beatrice if she was born there. All the other people started living in Rokkenjima at an older age than Rosa.

Rosa however is still a guest since she isn't living there, but this is true for a lot of other people.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
I thought something like this: what would happen if Beatrice was narrating the conversation, and Battler actually only heard one or two lines before he entered the room? Then the conversation from his perspective looks like:

Read: "Why didn't we have Madam act as one of the sacrifices instead of having Shannon fill in for her? If she'd been the one lying out there, Shannon wouldn't have gotten killed."
However Battler later claims he's been listening for a while. So he didn't hear just the last sentence. He might not have heard everything from the beginning, but the most relevant part should have been caught by his ears.
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Old 2010-04-26, 11:14   Link #9260
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
However Battler later claims he's been listening for a while. So he didn't hear just the last sentence. He might not have heard everything from the beginning, but the most relevant part should have been caught by his ears.
Battler may be exaggerating in an effort to wrestle more information from the servants, which would be perfectly sensible. It's not a nice thing to do, but Meta-Battler says at one point that he doesn't take any responsibility for his own conduct.
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