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Old 2010-04-29, 17:20   Link #9621
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Not the point. Maria was an 8 year old girl. There probably crayola drawing of her and Sakutarou lying around. Ange would suspect that Rosa was alive if she was the owner of that company making those dolls because only she could have known about it. She's been to meetings before so she knows what Rosa looks like. You wouldn't just need an identity change you'd need a completely new face.
Why do you think she has not suspected that? There's an awful lot Ange does not say, particularly in the specific scene.

But looking up the face of an owner of a small company somewhere that makes a plushie you just saw in a shop is nontrivial even now, let alone in 1998, when the Net is slower, when you need to leave for a sea trip tomorrow noon, and when it's time to sleep.

And she has her atonement before Maria on her mind more than pretty much any possible consequences of finding the plushie.
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Old 2010-04-29, 17:27   Link #9622
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Why do you think she has not suspected that? There's an awful lot Ange does not say, particularly in the specific scene.
I don't suspect she did. And I don't think there is anything suggesting she did besides the doll and that's a meta scene anyway.

I guess it will be more productive to ask you how Rosa survived though? She was planning to swim across the sea to get away from the island. With three gold bars no less. If she found any safe place it'd be a miracle.
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Old 2010-04-29, 17:58   Link #9623
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I don't suspect she did. And I don't think there is anything suggesting she did besides the doll and that's a meta scene anyway.
You might not think that, true. I agree that this is not a truly binding train of thought, and many ways to derail it exist. Although, I'm pretty sure no scene in the text can be outright discounted. You can't accept the red and then say the meta scenes don't mean anything because red is meta by itself.

However, I have been thinking of what kind of a bittersweet ending Ryukishi might be aiming for. Multiple, but far from all characters surviving, each in their own way and for their own reasons, scattered and lost, atoning for their own sins -- some successfully, some not -- is the kind of an ending I would expect. And Rosa surviving and doing that in such a way would fit an ending like that to a T.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
I guess it will be more productive to ask you how Rosa survived though? She was planning to swim across the sea to get away from the island. With three gold bars no less. If she found any safe place it'd be a miracle.
That is a good question. Our best theory for the endgame event is that it is a gas explosion that levels the mansion and destroys or heavily damages surrounding buildings, and burns up much of the area. At least, that's the one I currently subscribe to because I find it the most founded.

The interesting part about it is that it is not instant. First, a single tank will blow, then a few more. Then the rest will start venting burning gas, and more explosions will follow, but they will stop before the fire will spread to cover everything even while venting continues.

In Ep2, Rosa survives the initial blast by being in the chapel at the time to procure the gold, and then runs from something which we have to assume is the resulting firestorm. It may or may not have happened the same way in RealWorld-1998, but to have a new identity she would need money, so we have to assume she went somewhere to acquire a gold bar. There is at least one 'somewhere' that is always there -- the gold storage chamber -- and whichever place bars ended up if any were removed. From Ep2 we can assume that the chapel also survives at least the first blast. The gold storage place is clearly safe from fire on the surface as it's at least 20m down and if closed, will contain enough oxygen to wait it out. It is also likely safe from the explosion, though it may block the exit. Depending on how deep the water is along the shore, it may be feasible to walk far enough away so that the fire will not burn you, without having to stay afloat.

So multiple safe places can exist if you aren't caught unawares by the blast itself. Notice that in all episodes, including Ep2, the final scenes always happen in the mansion. Dead bodies can't run away from the fire and most of them end up in the mansion too. If the mansion is the center of the explosion, which in case of a gas explosion it probably is, getting caught in the mansion is certain death, but being just about anywhere else gives you a chance of survival, and you get the more time the further you are away. In Ep2, Rosa dies mostly because she hurt her leg trying to run down the slope from the firestorm, but that can't be a certainty.

The hard part is getting off the island later without getting caught and interrogated by the investigation to be successfully presumed dead, and that I don't have a good answer to. Yet.
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Old 2010-04-29, 18:04   Link #9624
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It's hard for me to believe there would be people other than Eva still alive in 1998 when no one seems to have made any effort to contact Ange at all in so many years. If we further believe that Eva was innocent (and it certainly appears that way, or at least mostly innocent), no other surviving family member has anything to fear from reuniting with her and Ange. Indeed, in the Tanbata TIP it seems like Eva is trying very hard, at least initially, to connect with Ange out of their mutual loss. Surely if someone had managed to escape, they would have made contact?

So really, I can only see a few prospects:
  • No one else is alive in 1998.
  • Someone is alive, but they are afraid of Eva.
  • Someone is alive, but they have no particular connection to Ange or interest in seeing her.
  • Someone is alive, but they were the killer and Eva knows this or would realize it if she saw them alive.
  • Someone is alive, but due to some incredibly good reason which we have not seen hinted pretty much at all (thus making it Knox-suspect), they haven't been able to reveal themselves to Ange.
Disregarding the whole dickish angle of the "Amakusa is Battler" theory, he has every opportunity to reveal his identity to Ange while they're on the run. He would lose nothing from telling her if he were, say, Kanon or Battler or even the "other" Battler who wasn't there in 1986. If he's got some connection to her, he's got the opportunity to tell her and does not. Doesn't seem logical to me.

Unless, of course, Amakusa was indeed the culprit after all (if he's the one shooting Ange, well...). In which case I'd prefer to think he wound up being Kanon than Battler. Unless Battler's the real culprit. But I think him just being some dude is more probable, unless we're going to have some serious BS pulled on us at the last second.
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Old 2010-04-29, 18:15   Link #9625
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
So really, I can only see a few prospects:
  • No one else is alive in 1998.
  • Someone is alive, but they are afraid of Eva.
  • Someone is alive, but they have no particular connection to Ange or interest in seeing her.
  • Someone is alive, but they were the killer and Eva knows this or would realize it if she saw them alive.
  • Someone is alive, but due to some incredibly good reason which we have not seen hinted pretty much at all (thus making it Knox-suspect), they haven't been able to reveal themselves to Ange.
A hiding Rosa can well be afraid of Eva, doesn't really have a particular connection to Ange or interest in seeing her, and has a loan that she successfully ran away from that has been poisoning her life for years. I'd call that a good reason to avoid being exposed.

Of the other potential survivors, one can well fit the 'killer afraid of Eva' criterion, though we don't have enough information to say which one yet. For many of them, none of the criteria based on known information will fit, so these probably are very dead. Kyrie and Rudolf certainly have to be, and Battler, alas, as well.

I think there should be one or two more potential ones, though.

Although I wouldn't be too surprised if Ryukishi pulls an amnesia card on us - it's silly in a mystery but by that point only romance will be left in the story.
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Old 2010-04-29, 18:18   Link #9626
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Cynically, I'm of the opinion he planned initially to do much more with 1998, then gave up on it when ep4 became a massive undertaking and spun out of control. Then he decided to go another route for Chiru.

That's just my grumpiness talking though. The early 1998 parts were genuinely fascinating, but it quickly turned into a pity party and then just... ended.
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Old 2010-04-29, 18:25   Link #9627
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Disregarding the whole dickish angle of the "Amakusa is Battler" theory, he has every opportunity to reveal his identity to Ange while they're on the run. He would lose nothing from telling her if he were, say, Kanon or Battler or even the "other" Battler who wasn't there in 1986. If he's got some connection to her, he's got the opportunity to tell her and does not. Doesn't seem logical to me.

Unless, of course, Amakusa was indeed the culprit after all (if he's the one shooting Ange, well...). In which case I'd prefer to think he wound up being Kanon than Battler. Unless Battler's the real culprit. But I think him just being some dude is more probable, unless we're going to have some serious BS pulled on us at the last second.
Amakusa was kind of set up to be a pretty mysterious guy. When I first saw him talking I thought he might be a spy or something and a paid killer isn't that far from that. It sounds like he's been around. We don't know know who he really is, but even if he's not Kanon or Battler or whoever he could always get a reveal as Rosa's ex husband or something.

He certainly has no problem killing people though. It wouldn't make sense if he was a Sumadera considering who he killed.
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Old 2010-04-29, 19:24   Link #9628
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
but even if he's not Kanon or Battler or whoever he could always get a reveal as Rosa's ex husband or something.
Too young. He is, however, the right age to be, say, the "other Battler"...

I doubt he's 'just some dude', as he's the only 1998 character other than Ange and Hachijou with a full portrait.
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Old 2010-04-30, 03:38   Link #9629
DgBarca
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Amakusa...I think he is Kyrie's son or Kasumi's.
Well, he is gray-haired and has a cross-shaped pendent...So...it would mean that he is a Sumadera, and then, hell.

Oh...my...god...
I....was...looking for information...
Izu....islands....
and...
and...
OH MY !!!!
Just...It was...that ? Check the date...It...match...
Moreover, in the french wiki, it is said :
Spoiler for HAAA!:

So...
Spoiler for EP2:

Oh, and it might explain the rich vegetation when Ange come to the island or not ?
..
...
....
Nah...too easy.

Last edited by DgBarca; 2010-04-30 at 04:54.
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Old 2010-04-30, 03:43   Link #9630
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
He certainly has no problem killing people though. It wouldn't make sense if he was a Sumadera considering who he killed.
Actually, didn't someone translate that sequence with Okonogi and Amakusa in EP6? Okonogi told Amakusa that the Sumaderas cleared it with him that it's ok to eliminate Kasumi, although I don't think he said it in those terms exactly. Some kind of euphenism.

Mind you it would still be kinda strange to tell a Sumadera about that since if Amakusa really is a Sumadera it seems Okonogi has absolutely no clue.
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Old 2010-04-30, 06:57   Link #9631
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Sorry for butting in like that, but browsing the last 20 or so pages of this thread once again proved to me just how fickle the mind [of an average otaku?] can be.

I’m talking about the FTW murders, of course. Before ep 5 came out, any suggestions about FTW murders (especially in ep 1 and ep 2) being fake/staged were considered all but blasphemous (“What do you mean, fake!? Heads smashed, guts ripped out!?”).

Nowadays I sense quite a different vibe about the FTW matter. People are suggesting tier-system of witness access to the scene, goat butlers are explained as masked fake victims from the FTW, Kinzo is suddenly a benign old prankster (with probably gallons of fake blood and goat masks stashed somewhere in his study). I’m not mocking these theories, mind you, some of them (the goats one, for instance) I consider relevant or, at least, witty.

What has shifted our perspective on FTW murders so completely? What has happened? Ep 5, that’s what.

But if we so implicitly trust ep 5 explanation of prior FTWs as being staged for some reason (and that explanation looks tempting, I admit, if, of course, it is not the dreaded “poisonous trick” allegedly introduced somewhere in Ep 5), why not go further and acknowledge the fact that such a perspective makes guessing the true mastermind behind Umineko fairly easy.

What follows is pure guesswork, thus please don’t bother to demand any hard evidence to support it; it doesn’t answer the “why” or “how”, but strongly hints towards a certain person as a “who”.

First of all, lets disregard the FTW of Ep 5 and 6 (because I consider anything after the end of Ep 4 as a kind of prolonged perverted answer to the prior episodes and under that light FTWs of Ep 5 and Ep 6 have no meaning per se, each of them being a simulacrum of what has really happened (or more precisely, their only purpose is to relay the idea of fakeness of all or most of FTWs of the question arks)).

FTW of Ep 4 is inconclusive: anything could have happened.

FTW of Ep 3 can be explained by the mastermind arranging “the game” with the servants as participants (probably through blackmailing or forming an alliance with one of the servants, Shannon would make a good candidate for that) or it was just the servants acting on their own for some reason (to confuse the real killer, to act out the epitaph or for whatever other reason).

That leaves us with FTW of Eps 1 and 2.

For Ep 1 and 2:

I do not believe that the servants or the children (except perhaps George) are in a position to arrange a “let’s play dead” game and convince others to be the willing participants. The servants have no influence for that. The children do not have enough influence and, besides, what would their reasons be? The parents would be already in the loop as would part of the servants (Gohda, Shannon), which would render such a game meaningless in the absence of the outside observers.

The reason behind the game thus has to be an adult-only matter probably heatedly discussed at the conference. The parents (anti-Kraus group) would clearly have such a reason: to lure out the supposedly dead Kinzo.

Now lets consider the adults one by one as possible masterminds who could propose, sell and arrange such a game and then turn it into a real thing:

Rosa and Eva – they are obviously decoy masterminds (though Eva could have done some killing in Ep3, mainly in self-defense);

Natsuhi – is innocent as per Ep 5;

Krauss – is everybody’s antagonist during the conference, is greatly outnumbered and in no position to suggest something as outrageous;

Rudolf and Hideyoshi – do their wives’ bidding.

That obviously leaves Kyrie, who was the brains behind anti-Kraus alliance all along.
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Old 2010-04-30, 07:09   Link #9632
Kaisos Erranon
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Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
That obviously leaves Kyrie, who was the brains behind anti-Kraus alliance all along.
Except she isn't in Ep1 and 2. In Ep2, she's shown to have had no idea that Rudolf was in debt at all.

Interesting, that.
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Old 2010-04-30, 07:36   Link #9633
Dr. Akagi
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
In Ep2, she's shown to have had no idea that Rudolf was in debt at all.
That’s not a necessary prerequisite. Her suspicion that Kinzo is long dead was enough to get her started on her plan (whatever it was).

She could also just take an advantage of a fortunate development during the conference (her ability to do so is shown numerous times during the question arks). It’s Kyrie we are talking about, after all. She could have formed an anti-Kraus alliance on the spot, for all I know.

Besides, I'm a firm beliver in the "common past" theory, under which the general circumstances and the actions of the pieces remain identical before the game starts on October 4 in each iteration of Umineko. Thus, anti-Kraus faction meeting happens every time, it's just it's only shown once.
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Old 2010-04-30, 08:06   Link #9634
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Amakusa...I think he is Kyrie's son or Kasumi's.
Well, he is gray-haired and has a cross-shaped pendent...So...it would mean that he is a Sumadera, and then, hell.

Oh...my...god...
I....was...looking for information...
Izu....islands....
and...
and...
OH MY !!!!
Just...It was...that ? Check the date...It...match...
Moreover, in the french wiki, it is said :
Spoiler for HAAA!:

So...
Spoiler for EP2:

Oh, and it might explain the rich vegetation when Ange come to the island or not ?
..
...
....
Nah...too easy.
The year is the same suprisingly, and it would fit somehow... But it actually erupted in November 1986, not on October 5th-6th. So I guess it doesn't work after all.

And about Rosa being alive, what I've she became a mystery writer, in other words, Hachijou is actually Rosa. They do share a similar hair style. And if Rosa indeed escaped in Episode 2, it fits with Hachijou writing the stories of Episodes after that. Would this mean that Ange-Beatrice is actually in the world after Episode 2? Eva isn't supposed to be alive anymore then...
It could be a world that has come through yet as Oliver said. I haven't actually read EP6, but I read that Ange is confronted by some kind of 'impossible memories'? Maybe she visited EP2's world... But it sounds too far-fetched.
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Old 2010-04-30, 08:27   Link #9635
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
Sorry for butting in like that, but browsing the last 20 or so pages of this thread once again proved to me just how fickle the mind [of an average otaku?] can be.

I’m talking about the FTW murders, of course. Before ep 5 came out, any suggestions about FTW murders (especially in ep 1 and ep 2) being fake/staged were considered all but blasphemous (“What do you mean, fake!? Heads smashed, guts ripped out!?”).

Nowadays I sense quite a different vibe about the FTW matter. People are suggesting tier-system of witness access to the scene, goat butlers are explained as masked fake victims from the FTW, Kinzo is suddenly a benign old prankster (with probably gallons of fake blood and goat masks stashed somewhere in his study). I’m not mocking these theories, mind you, some of them (the goats one, for instance) I consider relevant or, at least, witty.
Suspects of the bodies being fake are actually as old as EP3: http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=1189

However it's true that very few people considered such a thing seriously. I remember when there were people strongly denying the possibility that Shannon in EP1 wasn't really dead and now they are ready to accept that 5 people in EP5 faked their own dead. Needless to say it was a lot easier to explain Shannon's fake death.

I guess we should learn from that and realize that we can't take anything for granted. However, sadly, this makes speculation almost impossible to make. You can't reason without facts to base your reasonings into.
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Old 2010-04-30, 08:29   Link #9636
Raiza Sunozaki
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
Sorry for butting in like that, but browsing the last 20 or so pages of this thread once again proved to me just how fickle the mind [of an average otaku?] can be.

I’m talking about the FTW murders, of course. Before ep 5 came out, any suggestions about FTW murders (especially in ep 1 and ep 2) being fake/staged were considered all but blasphemous (“What do you mean, fake!? Heads smashed, guts ripped out!?”).
*snip*
We can't deny the First Twilights are all fake, what's changed is the opinion on whether they were meant to be real in the first place.
Maybe that's a poor way of saying it. What makes sense more and more is that the First Twilights are originally meant to be a stage act organized by someone on the island (possibly at the request of Kinzo's will). Then the real murderer, who is aware of the act, comes and kills them.
This is at least, my interpretation of the last discussions, and it's also what I've believed since Episode 4, with Episode 5's somewhat-confirmation only adding to my confidence. If there's a different opinion in the massive amount of pages we've gone through in the last week, then I must've missed it or not liked it.
Also, why ignore the Chiru Episodes? The mystery can be solved at the end of Episode 4, but Episodes 5 and 6 do assist by adding more tools to help solve it, as well as extra clues. Besides, the detective himself doesn't solve it until the Episode 5.

@Oliver:
One more theory for why Sakutaro can exist in 1998 without Rosa.
Sakutaro's designs, which Rosa lost were actually taken from her desk at work by an employee during one of the many "vacations" Rosa took. After her death, the company and her debt was inherited by Eva, who paid off the debt and dissolved the company (or whatever term they'd use in business), having no interest in it.
The employee who stole the designs used them to aquire a position in another company, which then began to mass-produce Sakutaro.
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Old 2010-04-30, 08:44   Link #9637
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Amakusa...I think he is Kyrie's son or Kasumi's.
Well, he is gray-haired and has a cross-shaped pendent...So...it would mean that he is a Sumadera, and then, hell.

Oh...my...god...
I....was...looking for information...
Izu....islands....
and...
and...
OH MY !!!!
Just...It was...that ? Check the date...It...match...
Moreover, in the french wiki, it is said :
Spoiler for HAAA!:

So...
Spoiler for EP2:

Oh, and it might explain the rich vegetation when Ange come to the island or not ?
..
...
....
Nah...too easy.
1. Okada (岡田村) (north)
2. Moto (元村) (west)
3. Senzu (泉津村) (northeast)
4. Nomashi (野増村) (west, south of Moto)
5. Sashiki (差木地村) (south, with Mabushi)
6. Habuminato (波浮港村) (southeast)

Moto, which had been called Motomura (village) until then, became seat of the local government for the whole island as Motomachi (town).

I'm actually thinking these villages could possibly be the river or the home town in the epitaph. It's kind of interesting
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Old 2010-04-30, 08:46   Link #9638
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Amakusa...I think he is Kyrie's son or Kasumi's.
Well, he is gray-haired and has a cross-shaped pendent...So...it would mean that he is a Sumadera, and then, hell.

Oh...my...god...
I....was...looking for information...
Izu....islands....
and...
and...
OH MY !!!!
Just...It was...that ? Check the date...It...match...
Moreover, in the french wiki, it is said :
Spoiler for HAAA!:

So...
Spoiler for EP2:

Oh, and it might explain the rich vegetation when Ange come to the island or not ?
..
...
....
Nah...too easy.

Good, another one joins the volcano theory ^^
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Old 2010-04-30, 08:58   Link #9639
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki View Post
Maybe that's a poor way of saying it. What makes sense more and more is that the First Twilights are originally meant to be a stage act organized by someone on the island (possibly at the request of Kinzo's will). Then the real murderer, who is aware of the act, comes and kills them.

Other than Kinzo's will there is a possibility of a person with the same authority as Kinzo too. The 19 year old master right? A will can be carried out, but if it has things like faking your death in it they could just take it as the ramblings of a senile old man. Only a few people should be aware of the will so that automatically makes the servants suspects. If somebody has authority over everyone in the family though they should be able to accomplish the same things Kinzo would.

@ Dr.Akagi. For the cousins that could be in on a fake death plot your forgetting Jessica. Jessica hates the island and yet she stays on it for most of the year. She knows people on the island well enough to convince them to do weird things. She also is good with make up.

Also if you follow this Kinzo's will thing Nanjo, Genji, Shannon, and Kanon are some of our biggest suspects.
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Old 2010-04-30, 09:24   Link #9640
Raiza Sunozaki
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I think even if it's a will, anything Kinzo writes would be filed as senile ramblings, no matter what's written. But think about it. If he wrote something like "now, at the end of my life, I have come to realize that my beloved Beatrice has indeed passed away. To honour her ghost, I would like to put on one last show, like she loved to watch when she was alive. If I die before I can realize this, please do so in my stead." He might sway the opinion of some people on the island. And I think the servants, especially Genji, would definitely be willing to perform it for him.

On the topic of the nineteen year old master, I've always found it pretty simple. Someone has already solved the Epitaph before the conference begins, and is technically the next head of the family. So they are the master of the island. The tricky part is finding someone who fits the nineteen year old description.
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